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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 20:39:11 GMT
Mr Poppy Looks like this is the endgame :- "Israel has suggested that the long-term aim of its military campaign in Gaza is to sever all links with the territory. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said that once Hamas had been defeated, Israel would end its "responsibility for life in the Gaza Strip"." BBC
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 21, 2023 7:58:06 GMT
Mr Poppy Looks like this is the endgame :- "Israel has suggested that the long-term aim of its military campaign in Gaza is to sever all links with the territory. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said that once Hamas had been defeated, Israel would end its "responsibility for life in the Gaza Strip"."BBC Also from the link: "Although Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005, the UN regards the strip - along with the West Bank and East Jerusalem* - as occupied land and considers Israel responsible for the basic needs of its population."
Hence the current situation of starving Gaza of power, food and other essential supplies - that part of their 'Endgame' (phase3) has started but without the massive amount of work that would need to be done to somehow make such a densely populated strip of land completely 'independent' A situation similar to North and South Korea, rather than N/S Ireland might eventually 'work' for Gaza but the path to get there (notably Israel's phase2) is going to be very messy and risk bringing in other countries * Then there's the West Bank, what's Israel's intentions with that much larger piece of land with "an estimated population of 2,747,943 Palestinians, and over 670,000 Israeli settlers". I can't see Israel giving the West Bank (including Jerusalem) to the State of Palestine and I can't see Palestinians (and other Arab/Muslim countries) accepting a full Israeli annexation. So even if Gaza eventually becomes a completely independent state and the Hamas-Israel war turns 'cold' in Gaza then I don't think that will the end of the issue.  en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Bank |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2023 8:38:07 GMT
Israel aims to cut Gaza ties after war with Hamaswww.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67175094#Also from the link: "Although Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005, the UN regards the strip - along with the West Bank and East Jerusalem* - as occupied land and considers Israel responsible for the basic needs of its population."
Hence the current situation of starving Gaza of power, food and other essential supplies - that part of their 'Endgame' (phase3) has started but without the massive amount of work that would need to be done to somehow make such a densely populated strip of land completely 'independent' A situation similar to North and South Korea, rather than N/S Ireland might eventually 'work' for Gaza but the path to get there (notably Israel's phase2) is going to be very messy and risk bringing in other countries * Then there's the West Bank, what's Israel's intentions with that much larger piece of land with "an estimated population of 2,747,943 Palestinians, and over 670,000 Israeli settlers". I can't see Israel giving the West Bank (including Jerusalem) to the State of Palestine and I can't see Palestinians (and other Arab/Muslim countries) accepting a full Israeli annexation. So even if Gaza eventually becomes a completely independent state and the Hamas-Israel war turns 'cold' in Gaza then I don't think that will the end of the issue. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Bank Yes the Gaza transition will be "messy"-and brutal. The place needs rebuilding. Perhaps we will see if Iran are as keen to help Palestinian civilians as they are to pay for rocket batteries in their midst ? I dont know enough about the exact status and history of The West Bank. It seems a strange place with Israeli communities & Arab communities. The policing there seems trigger happy , and the constant Israeli settlement building a clear provocation. It has the feel of Apartheid South Africa about it. But the Palestinian Authority seems far less inclined to kill Jews than Hamas, and I wonder if it and a post Netanyahu government could ever build on a feature which domjg mentioned - the proven ability of Arabs and Jews to live together peaceably in Israel. As I said -Iran will never allow a two state solution because it doesn't accept Israels right to exist. It doesn't even call Israel by its name-the "Zionist Entity" * is its usual description. The answer to this is surely co-habitation of Jews and Arabs , at peace INSIDE Israel. * did you read the Times article about Chris Williamson's ( remember him !!) program on Press TV. Another Iranian stooge. PS -reports of Russian involvement in anti Sweden Islamist activity ( and the murder of the two football fans) are disturbing. Said to be a response to Sweden in NATO, but it jut underlines the massive problem Democracies face in the awful combination of Autocracy & Theocracy. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 21, 2023 14:02:25 GMT
Who to believe?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2023 16:50:06 GMT
Indeed. Presumably the missile fragments are definitive. Wonder where they are. ? |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 21, 2023 18:01:37 GMT
Indeed. Presumably the missile fragments are definitive. Wonder where they are. ? The link does mention that but would missile fragments be 'definitive'? In the fog of war very few things are definitive even if both sides claim they are. AFAIK then UK's official position is still 'ongoing' and perhaps will stay that way but for Biden and Israel it was definitely Hamas and for the other side then it was definitely Israel. That makes it very difficult for 'press' reporting. BBC jumped on one snap judgement that was refuted the following day. Now? I dunno who to believe but neither side is totally innocent and as 'evidence' can be tampered with then I doubt we'll ever have a definitive view of who fired that missile but I'm fairly sure both sides will blame the other and that their respective intended audience will believe their side of the story. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2023 18:15:51 GMT
Indeed. Presumably the missile fragments are definitive. Wonder where they are. ? The link does mention that but would missile fragments be 'definitive'? the story. Well assuming they actually came from that missile-yes according to the military bloke on Sky TV. So surprised they havent been paraded on tv. |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 22, 2023 16:43:39 GMT
The link does mention that but would missile fragments be 'definitive'? the story. Well assuming they actually came from that missile-yes according to the military bloke on Sky TV. So surprised they havent been paraded on tv. Given the number of days that have now passed then we wouldn't be able to trust that any missile fragments now produced were from that site. If Palestine authorities paraded some Israeli missile fragments on TV then Israel would argue it wasn't from that location but yes, it was somewhat surprising that they didn't immediately produce the evidence to back up their version of events. If the missile fragments were from ordnance that only Hamas/Islamic Jihad normally uses then that makes a 'cover up' of said fragments more understandable but you'd need to assume with 100% certainty that Israel hadn't obtained some of such missiles. The sound and site scarring info from the C4 link looks like quite strong evidence IMO but I'm not making any definitive call - just saying that people will believe what they want to believe even if the evidence is 'beyond reasonable doubt' (and I'm not sure it is even at that level of certainty). NB In the link below then the word 'likely' is dropped from the title and ignores the info from the C4 link www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20231020-gaza-hospital-blast-was-caused-by-misfired-rocket-says-european-military-sourceBiden-US and European military sources are IMO more likely to take the Israeli view. I'm not saying Israel did it, just that I'm not 100% certain is was a misfired rocket from Hamas/Islamic Jihad. |
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Post by domjg on Oct 22, 2023 20:59:33 GMT
Hey colin out of curiosity where did read about potential Russian involvement in the Brussels attack on Swedes? I've not seen anything along those lines anywhere. |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 23, 2023 7:35:13 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2023 7:49:13 GMT
Hey colin out of curiosity where did read about potential Russian involvement in the Brussels attack on Swedes? I've not seen anything along those lines anywhere. Hi @domg It was from a Times article three days ago-this one :- www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sweden-russia-europe-extremist-islamism-vb06jcsgwprobably paywalled for you so here are quotes on the key source:- "Magnus Hjort, the director-general of the country’s psychological defence agency (MPF), said Russia was also whipping up the criticism in an apparent attempt to destabilise Sweden during a vulnerable period of limbo on the path to Nato membership. “Russia is definitely acting opportunistically,” he said. “They’re picking up these themes and they are accusing Sweden of being Islamophobic. They are trying to use the narrative of Islamophobia and that we are hiding under freedom of speech … of course the idea is to stir up problems for us and at the same time give the impression that Russia is a very good country [at] protecting Islam.” "Sweden drew up its first plans for a national psychological defence service in 1941 as it tried to preserve its neutrality during the Second World War. The concept involves analysing foreign disinformation and propaganda in the public domain and trying to inoculate the Swedish population against it by providing material to schools, police forces, journalists and various other state authorities. Although similar tasks are carried out at Nato’s strategic communications centre in Latvia and a number of intelligence services around the world, Sweden is the only country to have created a separate national agency dedicated to this purpose." "The campaign has sought to persuade Swedes that their military is enfeebled by its support for gay rights and Pride marches, that EU sanctions are harming them more than the Russians, and that they cannot handle the recent disruption to Europe’s energy supplies. It has also tried to turn public opinion against Nato membership, albeit with little success. “They didn’t do it in a very effective way,” said Hjort. “I think they were caught off guard, really.” The MPF was founded in 1954 but disbanded at the end of the Cold War as Sweden dismantled most of its “total defence” apparatus in the belief that it could afford to drop its guard in the new geopolitical order of the 1990s. Last year, however, it was resurrected in response to Russia’s attacks on Ukraine and its attempts to interfere in the 2016 US presidential election campaign." ps-do you have a view on the spike in anti jewish sentiment in Germany ? |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 23, 2023 9:41:50 GMT
Antisemitism and Islamophoia is unsurprisingly on the rise. Met figures just for London up to 18Oct: Antisemitic offences: 218 (+213) a rise of 1,350% Islamophobic offences: 103 (+61), a rise of 140% www.theguardian.com/news/2023/oct/20/antisemitic-hate-crimes-in-london-rise-1350-since-israel-hamas-war-met-saysThis weekend was thankfully less 'eventful' with the protest marches than I expected and TBC about Israel launching a full ground offensive. It's not impossible that things calm down and a very gradual 'positive tit-4-tat' emerges whereby hostages are released, aid trucks are allowed to enter... Israel has now killed over 3x more Palestinians than the number of Israelis that were killed on 7/10. The original 'carte blanche' given to Israel has been 'clarified' by Western leaders who perhaps are very aware of the implications of the rise in tension for their own polities. In Germany then Scholz has likely been somewhat misquoted or misrepresented but his timing didn't help the view that many European countries are taking an anti Islamic view: www.spiegel.de/international/germany/interview-with-german-chancellor-olaf-scholz-we-have-to-deport-people-more-often-and-faster-a-790a033c-a658-4be5-8611-285086d39d38Muslim numbers have increased significantly in Germany but are still relatively low. However, like most countries in Europe and elsewhere:
German Muslims face racism, discrimination every day: Reportwww.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/30/german-muslims-face-everyday-racism-discrimination-reportSome of that racism and discrimination likely fuels a very small % of muslims who are prepared to 'fight back'. One person's freedom fighter is another person's terrorist. It is reasonable to assume that someone like Putin would benefit from increasing division within European countries (and a rise in the price of oil and gas obviously helps him as well). |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2023 15:37:07 GMT
Israel has now killed over 3x more Palestinians than the number of Israelis that were killed on 7/10. ...according to Hamas. Who were probably responsible for the hospital deaths. "Prime Minister Rishi Sunak says the blast at Gaza's Al Ahli hospital last week was likely caused by a missile fired from within Gaza He says British intelligence believes the explosion was "likely caused by a missile or part of one"" BBC And what degree of responsibility for civilian deaths in Gaza ,do you attribute to the Hamas fighters who fired rockets from the buildings occupied by those civilians and their communities. ? |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 23, 2023 16:24:02 GMT
Israel has now killed over 3x more Palestinians than the number of Israelis that were killed on 7/10. ... according to Hamas. Who were probably responsible for the hospital deaths. "Prime Minister Rishi Sunak says the blast at Gaza's Al Ahli hospital last week was likely caused by a missile fired from within Gaza He says British intelligence believes the explosion was " likely caused by a missile or part of one"" BBC And what degree of responsibility for civilian deaths in Gaza ,do you attribute to the Hamas fighters who fired rockets from the buildings occupied by those civilians and their communities. ? According to Gaza Ministry of Health. UN's OCHA also accept Israel's claimed numbers
Israel-Palestine: Gaza death toll passes 5,000 with no ceasefire in sightnews.un.org/en/story/2023/10/1142687For a longer term comparison from 2008 to just before 7/10/23 then see: Israeli fatalities: 308 Palestinian fatalities: 6,407 2023 is sadly going to be by far the highest annual number since at least 2008 www.ochaopt.org/data/casualtiesThe link doesn't break-out 'Air-launched explosive devices' by who launched them in the Palestinian data but I'd certainly accept that by hiding in civilian population then any combatant is deliberately putting civilians in those communities at risk and should take some of the blame. NB Likely is not definitive but let's perhaps agree to disagree on that. I'm not 100% certain but I accept some people will be (notably some pro-Palestinian or pro-Israel supporters, although their 100% certainly is that is was the other 'team') |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 24, 2023 9:30:35 GMT
UN Voted on "humanitarian pause" last week (US voted against so it failed - see post last week). Some EU states are on the UN council but I post the below as it explains: " "A ceasefire is certainly much more than a pause," Borrell said. "A pause, as the name suggests, is an interruption of something that would then continue. It is much less ambitious than a ceasefire, which means an agreement between both sides."
www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/10/23/eu-foreign-ministers-consider-call-for-gaza-humanitarian-pause-but-divisions-remainSo disappointing that UN couldn't agree even agree on a "pause" and that UK abstained. One/both sides might ignore the humanitarian pause but it could lead to more 'positive tit-4-tat'. I note a few more hostages have been released and a few more aid trucks have entered the Gaza Strip. A 'pause' would give Hamas the chance to release all of the hostages and a chance for Israel to avoid a full scale ground assault - moving to the possible 'Endgame' of something similar to North/South Korea between Israel and the Gaza Strip (as per colin 's info from a few days back). If they can't live together in peace then live completely isolated from each other in peace (or at least have a Cold War instead of a Hot War)? Still leaves the West Bank issue but one step at a time! |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 25, 2023 18:00:01 GMT
AFAIK then Biden-US* haven't changed their tune but a case of better late than never from Sunak:
Rishi Sunak calls for ‘specific pauses’ in Israel-Hamas conflictwww.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/25/rishi-sunak-calls-for-specific-pauses-in-israel-hamas-conflictA 'pause' is not a ceasefire as such (see earlier posts) but might lead to a further de-escalation and perhaps a move towards a two state 'Endgame' (for the Gaza Strip at least). * Relevance being the UN vote, which could be re-run with the most subtle of wording changes, plus the obvious fact that Israel is unlikely to launch a full scale ground assault with rWorld having changed their tune since the initial 'carte blanche' endorsement of Israel being able to do whatever it wants in the name of self-defense. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Oct 25, 2023 20:54:45 GMT
Hey colin out of curiosity where did read about potential Russian involvement in the Brussels attack on Swedes? I've not seen anything along those lines anywhere. Hi @domg It was from a Times article three days ago-this one :- www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sweden-russia-europe-extremist-islamism-vb06jcsgwprobably paywalled for you so here are quotes on the key source:- "Magnus Hjort, the director-general of the country’s psychological defence agency (MPF), said Russia was also whipping up the criticism in an apparent attempt to destabilise Sweden during a vulnerable period of limbo on the path to Nato membership. “Russia is definitely acting opportunistically,” he said. “They’re picking up these themes and they are accusing Sweden of being Islamophobic. They are trying to use the narrative of Islamophobia and that we are hiding under freedom of speech … of course the idea is to stir up problems for us and at the same time give the impression that Russia is a very good country [at] protecting Islam.” "Sweden drew up its first plans for a national psychological defence service in 1941 as it tried to preserve its neutrality during the Second World War. The concept involves analysing foreign disinformation and propaganda in the public domain and trying to inoculate the Swedish population against it by providing material to schools, police forces, journalists and various other state authorities. Although similar tasks are carried out at Nato’s strategic communications centre in Latvia and a number of intelligence services around the world, Sweden is the only country to have created a separate national agency dedicated to this purpose." "The campaign has sought to persuade Swedes that their military is enfeebled by its support for gay rights and Pride marches, that EU sanctions are harming them more than the Russians, and that they cannot handle the recent disruption to Europe’s energy supplies. It has also tried to turn public opinion against Nato membership, albeit with little success. “They didn’t do it in a very effective way,” said Hjort. “I think they were caught off guard, really.” The MPF was founded in 1954 but disbanded at the end of the Cold War as Sweden dismantled most of its “total defence” apparatus in the belief that it could afford to drop its guard in the new geopolitical order of the 1990s. Last year, however, it was resurrected in response to Russia’s attacks on Ukraine and its attempts to interfere in the 2016 US presidential election campaign." ps-do you have a view on the spike in anti jewish sentiment in Germany ? The German further left (the leather jacket brigade) have always been anti Israel for largely the same reason they oppose supporting Ukraine, as proxy battles for their deeply ingrained anti Americanism. A lot of the other problems come simply from the fact that Germany has a large Muslim population, many of which are inevitably going to be virulently anti Israel. The political establishment is a very different thing. Germany takes it’s historical responsibility towards Israel incredibly seriously and support for it is seen as a given across the political spectrum even extending to Die Linke and the AfD. Scholz was one of the first western leaders to visit Israel after the attacks, even before Biden I think. In Germany recent pro Palestinian protests have been banned or needed approval and any taking place without permission have been in some cases quite robustly broken up. Palestinian flags and badges are banned in schools and these have been confiscated from pupils if found. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Oct 30, 2023 16:33:14 GMT
There has always been a tendency in regards to the Israeli government's propaganda machinery and pressure groups/supporters in other countries, to paint those who are critical of Israel's policy and actions towards the Palestinians as anti-Semitic and attempt to silence and marginalise them. www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/30/mccarthyite-backlash-response-to-criticism-of-israel-alarms-rights-groupsI remember Gerald Kaufman being labelled as a self-hating Jew due to his stance on Israel's policy (and that was 20 odd years ago).
When I was still at School, I was privileged to visit Israel and parts of the West Bank. One of the experiences that will always stick in my mind was seeing a group of young Israeli women in uniform and armed, who were only a couple of years older than me and my friends. We got chatting to them, and pretty soon realised that they were really just kids like us. We asked them what it was like to do their national service and how they felt about it - and they all said it was their duty and that they had to do it because they were surrounded by enemies.
For Israelis it is fundamentally about survival and security - and while elements of the country's left still view negotiation and eventually accommodation with the Palestinians as the means to ultimately secure this, the right continue to see it purely in terms of security driven policies, and the extreme right essentially wish to drive the Palestinians out entirely.
Personally, I disagree with those who say this is intractable and no solution can be found. It isn't easy, but where this is genuine political will to solve problems a solution can be found. No side has a monopoly on suffering, and ultimately both will benefit from a lasting peace. As is the case with all conflicts, peace can only realistically be achieved via political means.
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Post by birdseye on Nov 19, 2023 17:56:42 GMT
"Where there is genuine political will". But is there? Will there ever be so and on the palestinian side, will there ever be a government with sufficient control and credibility to fight down the terrorists?
And there is an issue on the Israeli side. During many visits to the country I came to conclude that there are broadly two different groups of Israeli. There are the now elderly Jews who fled persecution and were simply looking for somewhere safe to live after the horrors of the holocaust. But there are also recent religious immigrants who believe that the ancient texts give them rights to the land of Israel. Their motives and attitudes are a mix of religion and racism. They are what Israelis call Sabra.
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