Hamas-Israel

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Thought I'd start this thread with posting this link. Stewart and Campbell, as usual, between the two of them provide a thoughtful and relatively balanced discussion. Campbell's closing comments really resonated with me.


www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAs5EOBUDcs

[johntel]

Thanks for starting this thread lulu. I must say that Keir Starmer using anti-semitism as a stick to beat the left wingers in the Labour party may well come home to haunt him in the future (though I guess it's telling that I consider his actions more important than Rishi Sunaks!).

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Oct 13, 2023 16:39:45 GMT johntel said:

Thanks for starting this thread lulu. I must say that Keir Starmer using anti-semitism as a stick to beat the left wingers in the Labour party may well come home to haunt him in the future (though I guess it's telling that I consider his actions more important than Rishi Sunaks!).

Hi johntel, well as Starmer's wife is Jewish so I'm assuming this whole issue is relatively emotional to him as it is for Humza Yousaf who's wife is Palestinian. What I've found relatively assuring is many influential commentators are taking a more nuanced and intelligent position.  

[Mr Poppy]

Oct 13, 2023 17:11:17 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Oct 13, 2023 16:39:45 GMT johntel said:

Thanks for starting this thread lulu. I must say that Keir Starmer using anti-semitism as a stick to beat the left wingers in the Labour party may well come home to haunt him in the future (though I guess it's telling that I consider his actions more important than Rishi Sunaks!).

Hi johntel , well as Starmer's wife is Jewish so I'm assuming this whole issue is relatively emotional to him as it is for Humza Yousaf who's wife is Palestinian. What I've found relatively assuring is many influential commentators are taking a more nuanced and intelligent position.  

Southgate, FA and the decision not to light up Wembley with the Israeli flag being an example of an 'intelligent' position of IMO

Quite staggering that some people don't realise that no single country defines itself as 'Black' or 'LGBTQ+' (and hence those flags/lights are multinational) yet some people seek to conflate 'Jew' with the State, and flag, of Israel. 

A lot of Jews (even some within Israel) support a 'two nation' solution but behind a lot of the recent attacks on Jews in countries such as UK is the view that all Jews support Israel's actions (past, present or future). So congrats to Southgate and FA for keeping English football out of it.  

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Oct 14, 2023 12:30:26 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Oct 13, 2023 17:11:17 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Southgate, FA and the decision not to light up Wembley with the Israeli flag being an example of an 'intelligent' position of IMO

Quite staggering that some people don't realise that no single country defines itself as 'Black' or 'LGBTQ+' (and hence those flags/lights are multinational) yet some people seek to conflate 'Jew' with the State, and flag, of Israel. 

A lot of Jews (even some within Israel) support a 'two nation' solution but behind a lot of the recent attacks on Jews in countries such as UK is the view that all Jews support Israel's actions (past, present or future). So congrats to Southgate and FA for keeping English football out of it.  

Most of the Israeli's I have known have been in favour of a two state solution, and I would never equate or view the likes of Netanyahu with all Israeli's or all members of the Jewish diaspora. 

Personally, I'm not so sure on the stance that the FA have taken - if it had been any other state attacked in such a manner, such as France, I have no doubt their flag/colours would have been on display. 

If there is to be any peaceful/sustainable solution, at some stage the international community has got to move away from a 'oh its so complicated, both sides have suffered but what can you do' to actually doing something constructive. This will require leadership from the US, commitment from the international community and cast iron guarantees on the security of the Israeli people and a state for the Palestinians. Sadly, cant see it happening in my life time. 

[Mr Poppy]

Oct 14, 2023 18:32:03 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Oct 14, 2023 12:30:26 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Southgate, FA and the decision not to light up Wembley with the Israeli flag being an example of an 'intelligent' position of IMO

Quite staggering that some people don't realise that no single country defines itself as 'Black' or 'LGBTQ+' (and hence those flags/lights are multinational) yet some people seek to conflate 'Jew' with the State, and flag, of Israel. 

A lot of Jews (even some within Israel) support a 'two nation' solution but behind a lot of the recent attacks on Jews in countries such as UK is the view that all Jews support Israel's actions (past, present or future). So congrats to Southgate and FA for keeping English football out of it.  

Most of the Israeli's I have known have been in favour of a two state solution, and I would never equate or view the likes of Netanyahu with all Israeli's or all members of the Jewish diaspora. 

Personally, I'm not so sure on the stance that the FA have taken - if it had been any other state attacked in such a manner, such as France, I have no doubt their flag/colours would have been on display. 

If there is to be any peaceful/sustainable solution, at some stage the international community has got to move away from a 'oh its so complicated, both sides have suffered but what can you do' to actually doing something constructive. This will require leadership from the US, commitment from the international community and cast iron guarantees on the security of the Israeli people and a state for the Palestinians. Sadly, cant see it happening in my life time. 

Agreed. I'd add part of that is not rowing in 100% behind one side giving them carte blanche to avenge one attack.

Some people thought the Northern Ireland situation would never be resolved but it was. Functioning two state systems are possibly and hopefully within our lifetimes and some, admittedly very slow, progress had been made in the Middle East in the last few decades. 

[johntel]

According to Torsten Heinrich, who I think is pretty reliable and objective, Hamas are attacking their own people who try to evacuate to the south and are also using hostages as human shields.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HmENXLFqzg

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2023 11:52:49 GMT johntel said:

According to Torsten Heinrich, who I think is pretty reliable and objective, Hamas are attacking their own people who try to evacuate to the south and are also using hostages as human shields.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HmENXLFqzg

If that is true it adds a further bizarre  dimension to the opinion expressed by Mathew Syed in today's ST  . This is a quote :-

"According to Jennifer Jefferis, a Middle East expert at Georgetown University who spoke to the BBC last week, Hamas consistently polls over 50 per cent (more than any other party) across Gaza and the West Bank. Apologists claim this is Israel’s fault: that Palestinians are driven into the hands of Hamas by the actions of the Jewish state, just as Isis apologists said that its atrocities were incited by the “Great Satan” of America. There is, I suppose, a particular kind of liberal who can’t see an evil in the world without detecting western civilisation or a Jewish conspiracy as the root cause.
A different perspective emerges by looking at Hamas. For what does it do with power? That’s right: rather than focusing on growth, rational administration and the needs of its people, its priority is religious indoctrination. One recent report (among many) found that schools across the West Bank and Gaza Strip “regularly call for the murder of Jews, and create teaching materials that glorify terrorism, encourage martyrdom and incite antisemitism”. This is how it is possible for a religious cult to sustain what is euphemistically referred to as “popular legitimacy”.
And that is why many “solutions” to this problem are confused. Good people think that progress can be made with diplomacy or reconfiguring borders. They are, I fear, looking at the issue through the wrong lens. Until the virus of fundamentalism is contained, until its mechanisms of transmission are severed, this is futile."

from :"Until we find a vaccine for religious fundamentalism, there is no peace

The terrorists of Hamas are capable of atrocities not because they are nihilists. It’s because they believe"

Mathew Syed
Sunday Times.

He concludes his piece with a quote from Salman Rushdie :-

"“The fundamentalist believes that we believe in nothing. In his world-view, he has his absolute certainties, while we are sunk in sybaritic indulgences. To prove him wrong, we must first know that he is wrong.”

( Syed criticises  Israel for not showing "restraint" )

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Oct 15, 2023 11:52:49 GMT johntel said:

According to Torsten Heinrich, who I think is pretty reliable and objective, Hamas are attacking their own people who try to evacuate to the south and are also using hostages as human shields.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HmENXLFqzg

In wars/conflicts there can always be uncertainty as to what is the 'truth', and in the age of AI and deep fakes and social media discerning what has actually happened can become virtually impossible. As a rule now, I tend to hold my judgement on anything I see on social media and wait for it to be confirmed by a more reputable/trustworthy source.

The basic reality is that the Israeli's are firing into a densely occupied area, where Hamas have located their own infrastructure. Civilian casualties are inevitable. The extent to which people condone/accept this in a conflict tends to betray their own prejudices - as it did in the Ukraine war.   

Conflict is inherently polarising - and this conflict will further polarise/radicalise people on both sides. If you are a young Palestinian, you probable weren't too keen on Israel to start with, but if you have now lost a family member you are likely to see Hamas as the only one fighting for you. Conversely, if you are an Israeli, giving that most of the communities attacked were bastions of the left-wing pro-peace, the 'lesson's' learnt aren't going to be ones of peaceful accommodation, more likely its a re-enforcement of the belief that given half a chance their neighbours would butcher them in their beds. 

It will take a tremendous work of statecraft to resolve this conflict to get in anywhere near a peaceful resolution - most likely we will witness decades more of conflict, killing and misery.

[Mr Poppy]

YG asked a few question on Brits views. EG:

and

[Mr Poppy]

+1 to what they have said:

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Given the response of elements of the Muslim communities' to Stamer's stance over Israel/Gaza, there could be some domestic political impact. Traditionally, the Muslim community has largely voted Labour. If other parties, such as the SNP and LD adopt a more pro-Palestine stances, this could impact the result in some seats.
Be interesting to see if Starmer does modify his stance - he has gone to great lengths to be seen to tackle alleged anti-Semitism in the Labour party etc.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/17/labour-leadership-meets-councillors-after-resignations-over-middle-east-crisis

[birdseye]

You can expect both parties to modify their stance. The Hamas atrocities are in the past now, whilst the Israeli attacks are current. The media is full of depressing details. Clamour against the Israeli attacks will increase and UK politicians will respond. To a degree they are already doing so.

Hamas must be happy that the Israelis have fallen into their trap by overreacting to the provocation They must hope that this triggers a wider Arab / Muslim reaction with other countries joining the fighting as they previously have done. I would not be at all surprised if the bombing of the hospital was a Hamas action to heat things up.

[Mr Poppy]

Oct 18, 2023 7:35:06 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Given the response of elements of the Muslim communities' to Stamer's stance over Israel/Gaza, there could be some domestic political impact. Traditionally, the Muslim community has largely voted Labour. If other parties, such as the SNP and LD adopt a more pro-Palestine stances, this could impact the result in some seats.
Be interesting to see if Starmer does modify his stance - he has gone to great lengths to be seen to tackle alleged anti-Semitism in the Labour party etc.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/17/labour-leadership-meets-councillors-after-resignations-over-middle-east-crisis

YG's polling doesn't split the x-breaks by religion as that would be dominated by 'Christian' or 'No religion'. It does show a LAB v CON split which correlates with age.

yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/10/16/b8bd3/1

Of note then YG ask the question as Israel-Palestinian conflict and not on a religious basis. The State of Israel and Hamas would probably like people to consider the conflict as 'religious' but I hope UK politicians avoid doing so and conflate pro-Palestine with a religious cause (a problem that LAB still seems to be struggling with although now from the opposite side)

A useful link on constituency break down by Religion (or other factors) is:
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/constituency-data-religion/#compare_constituencies

Without wishing to intentionally generalise then the constituencies with a high % of Muslims are the deprived areas in English Cities. One George Galloway did start out as LAB's Member of Parliament for Glasgow Kelvin before moving to England, starting up his own party and winning Bethnal Green and Bow (#9 in above list with 41.2% Muslims) then a brief stint in Bradford West (#2 in above list with 58.7% Muslims) 
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Galloway

None of the seats with a high Muslim look like credible LDEM targets IMO and I very much hope no major UK party specifically targets a 'religious' vote. Galloway might see his chance at returning to HoC in some of one of 'top10' Muslim% seat and maybe a few xLAB Inds look at where they might stand a good chance of success appealing to a very narrow national vote that has a very high% in a few seats but that would hopefully be a very obviously bad idea for a larger party and IMO a very bad idea for our country. I hope we can keep religion out of politics.

[Mr Poppy]

It doesn't appear clear who was to blame IMO but my opinion is of little value. Biden has decided and his opinion is very important, likely to only make the tension in neighbouring Middle East countries and between communities in UK/rWorld worse 🤦‍♂️

"Based on what I've seen, it appears as though it was done by the other team, not you," he (Biden) told Mr Netanyahu

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67142031

Some YG findings from across the pond but note the fieldwork was just a few days after the Hamas attack and as we saw with YG UK polling then it might have shifted a bit since (although I expect plurality of yanks will always lean in favour of Israel)

In the Israel-Hamas war, Americans are more likely to support Israel and to have doubts about Biden
today.yougov.com/international/articles/47606-israel-hamas-war-americans-support-israel-have-doubts-about-biden-poll

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Hi Mr Poppy

Without wishing to intentionally generalise then the constituencies with a high % of Muslims are the deprived areas in English Cities. One George Galloway did start out as LAB's Member of Parliament for Glasgow Kelvin before moving to England, starting up his own party and winning Bethnal Green and Bow (#9 in above list with 41.2% Muslims) then a brief stint in Bradford West (#2 in above list with 58.7% Muslims)

I would suspect where it could have an impact is in some marginals, particularly in the midlands, where some Muslim voters may stay at home. I think Starmer displayed elements of his own political naivety when he didn't take a more nuanced approach initially, given elements of his Labour's base. Lets not forget, the key driver of US support for Israel has always been for domestic political reasons.

I think Biden is rapidly losing friends in the Middle East, and unfortunately Iran is looking like the winner in all of this. A wedge has definitely been driven between parties, that until quite recently, to the disadvantage of Tehran, looked like to be on the verge of normalising relations.

[Mr Poppy]

Oct 18, 2023 13:22:01 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Hi Mr Poppy

Without wishing to intentionally generalise then the constituencies with a high % of Muslims are the deprived areas in English Cities. One George Galloway did start out as LAB's Member of Parliament for Glasgow Kelvin before moving to England, starting up his own party and winning Bethnal Green and Bow (#9 in above list with 41.2% Muslims) then a brief stint in Bradford West (#2 in above list with 58.7% Muslims)

I would suspect where it could have an impact is in some marginals, particularly in the midlands, where some Muslim voters may stay at home. I think Starmer displayed elements of his own political naivety when he didn't take a more nuanced approach initially, given elements of his Labour's base. Lets not forget, the key driver of US support for Israel has always been for domestic political reasons.

I think Biden is rapidly losing friends in the Middle East, and unfortunately Iran is looking like the winner in all of this. A wedge has definitely been driven between parties, that until quite recently, to the disadvantage of Tehran, looked like to be on the verge of normalising relations.

I can post the massive LAB majorities in the seats with a very high Muslim% if you want me to. None are marginal between the main parties but might back a 'Galloway' type of candidate (IMO, based on what has happened in the examples I gave in the past). I think we're veering into broader UK politics as likes of Corbyn might win his seat for various reasons* so perhaps 'seat specific' discussion should go back to the main thread. I hope the link I provided is useful and given few people venture on the Issue Specific threads then that will be easy for people to find if anyone wants to look into any specific religion context for specific seats in the future.  

I agree your other points. It would certainly suit Iran if Arab states surrounding Israel became more hostile to Israel. A proxy war needs proxies, ideally those willing to be proxies or drawn into the dispute due to domestic factors. I posted some opinion polling and comments about US and I don't think it is antisemitic in anyway to say that Israel has a lot more influence over US foreign policy than all the Arab states combined - let's just hope the big players keep out of it. Absolutely no way should UK be drawn into it that's for sure. After Iraq then 'once bitten, twice shy' (or 'fool me once..')

* As already mentioned then the YG polling shows an age x-break. It is possible older voters remember the various Israeli wars of the past and so lean that way where as younger voters have been more aware of recent but pre 7/10/23 actions by the State of Israel. I did make a comment about 'Hipster Marxists' as well, some people like a 'cause' and feel the need to be outraged by something even if it doesn't directly concern them. Likes of Corbyn and Galloway are IMO examples of people who not only like a 'cause' but can also drum up significant, albeit very narrow/localised, support. 

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Oct 18, 2023 14:15:38 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Oct 18, 2023 13:22:01 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

I can post the massive LAB majorities in the seats with a very high Muslim% if you want me to. None are marginal between the main parties but might back a 'Galloway' type of candidate (IMO, based on what has happened in the examples I gave in the past). I think we're veering into broader UK politics as likes of Corbyn might win his seat for various reasons* so perhaps 'seat specific' discussion should go back to the main thread. I hope the link I provided is useful and given few people venture on the Issue Specific threads then that will be easy for people to find if anyone wants to look into any specific religion context for specific seats in the future.  

I think you may be missing my point - I was thinking more of places like West Bromwich, where the Tories have two seats with relatively small majorities and the Asian population is just under 25%.

[Mr Poppy]

Oct 18, 2023 14:51:39 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Oct 18, 2023 14:15:38 GMT Mr Poppy said:

I can post the massive LAB majorities in the seats with a very high Muslim% if you want me to. None are marginal between the main parties but might back a 'Galloway' type of candidate (IMO, based on what has happened in the examples I gave in the past). I think we're veering into broader UK politics as likes of Corbyn might win his seat for various reasons* so perhaps 'seat specific' discussion should go back to the main thread. I hope the link I provided is useful and given few people venture on the Issue Specific threads then that will be easy for people to find if anyone wants to look into any specific religion context for specific seats in the future.  

I think you may be missing my point - I was thinking more of places like West Bromwich, where the Tories have two seats with relatively small majorities and the Asian population is just under 25%.

I think it is best we stop discussing specific seats on this thread but FWIW then West Bromwich East has: Sikh, 14.1%; Muslim 11.07%; Hindu, 4.39%
(bit lower for West Bromwich West)

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/constituency-data-religion/#single_constituency

I wouldn't use the term 'Asian' myself but happy to say I'm missing your point and move on (or discuss specific seats on the main thread - noting that I very much hope that 'religion' never becomes a significant enough factor for any major party to go the votes of one specific religion or take an ABX view against one specific religion)

[Mr Poppy]

I can just about understand why UK felt the need to 'abstain' but US used their veto to block the call for “humanitarian pauses”. 

Israel-Gaza crisis: US vetoes Security Council resolution
news.un.org/en/story/2023/10/1142507

[Mr Poppy]

It looks like there will need to be repairs to the road before aid trucks can start to enter Gaza:

"The exact timeline on when aid will get to those who need it remains unclear. The road on the Rafah crossing requires repairs before any trucks are able to enter"
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67156084

and what worries me is that Israel does have an 'Endgame' but not one they'll admit to:

What is Israel’s endgame in Gaza invasion?
www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-endgame-no-sign-post-war-plan-gaza-2023-10-18/

[Mr Poppy]

Posting below just as an example of 'spin' and how different audiences will be told and interpret the same news:

Israel-Gaza war live: Over 4,000 Palestinians killed in Israeli bombardment
www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/10/19/israel-hamas-war-live-condemnation-after-israeli-strike-on-gaza-church

versus likes of Guardian: "Israel-Hamas war live: IDF says it 'attacked over a hundred operational targets' overnight as it prepares for 'prolonged' Gaza campaign"

Still no aid trucks getting into Gaza, although road repairs have apparently started. I'm worried to speculate on what Israel might be waiting for by causing the delay. Another attack on Israel might the escalation they are waiting for.. 

[Deleted]

A US naval destroyer recently stationed in the Red Sea has shot down three cruise missiles headed to Israel from Yemen. ( ie Iran backed Houthis)

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Oct 19, 2023 16:40:54 GMT Mr Poppy said:

and what worries me is that Israel does have an 'Endgame' but not one they'll admit to:

What is Israel’s endgame in Gaza invasion?
www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-endgame-no-sign-post-war-plan-gaza-2023-10-18/

TBH, the Israeli government's reaction to date smacks of a knee jerk reaction. I see little evidence of any realistic long-term political strategy/solution being sought, and they continue to rely on a military/security policy approach. Ultimately, Hamas will have to be defeated/marginalised/pacified politically. Unfortunately, the current government contains very extreme elements who genuinely want to drive the Palestinian people out of what they view as Israel's true boarders (biblical Israel). I also see little evidence that the US has been able to moderate these tendencies. My understanding is that what constraint there is actually coming from the IDF, elements of which realise the risk inherent on embarking on a ground assault and occupation of Gaza.    

[Deleted]

Oct 19, 2023 16:40:54 GMT Mr Poppy said:

What is Israel’s endgame in Gaza invasion?

Survival ?  

Like all the other times in the last 75 years.

When it is surrounded by peoples and states who, in varying degrees object to its existence and want it gone , and try to destroy it by military means ; what else  but military response? Anything else is oblivion.


I don't know about you ,but I can't imagine living in such a place ,let alone trying to govern it.


They will continue to make mistakes of course, and be blamed for every death-including their own.

But when the entire muslim world ( and yes this is a religious war ) believes that the mortality caused by a Hamas missile launched at Israel from a cemetery near a hospital . is their fault I should think they have given up worrying about what anyone else thinks-or about endgames..

[Mr Poppy]

Oct 20, 2023 16:58:41 GMT colin said:

Oct 19, 2023 16:40:54 GMT Mr Poppy said:

What is Israel’s endgame in Gaza invasion?

Survival ?  

Like all the other times in the last 75 years.

When it is surrounded by peoples and states who, in varying degrees object to its existence and want it gone , and try to destroy it by military means ; what else  but military response? Anything else is oblivion.


I don't know about you ,but I can't imagine living in such a place ,let alone trying to govern it.


They will continue to make mistakes of course, and be blamed for every death-including their own.

But when the entire muslim world ( and yes this is a religious war ) believes that the mortality caused by a Hamas missile launched at Israel from a cemetery near a hospital . is their fault I should think they have given up worrying about what anyone else thinks-or about endgames..

"Neither can (truly) live while the other survives"

US think Israel is Harry Potter and Hamas is Lord Voldemort. For the Arab/Muslim world the roles are reversed.

I appreciate a two state solution looks like a naive dream at the moment but the only other two alternatives are:

1/ Israel dies (or leaves the Middle East) 
2/ Israel starts a regional 'religious' war that could turn global.

Israel is never going to wipe Islam off the regional or global map but they might try and that is IMO their "Endgame" given they don't want a 'two state' solution and the only other alternative is Israel leaves the Middle East or dies.

IMO Israel does still care what likes of US think and whilst Biden, Rishi and others have declared they want Israel to win then I'm not sure they understand what that will mean. I note Starmer has "evolved" his view as the siege on Gaza gets ugly and Muslims and Palestinian supporters in LAB voice concern with some resigning. 

US did stop some rockets y'day (your earlier post) but they probably won't be able to stop them all. If/when a 3rd country gets involved it escalates. Where that goes next, I dunno, but Israel needs US support and further attacks on Israel might well draw in a military response from US.

If a US led 'coalition of the winning' can't even hold Afghanistan then no way will they hold down the whole Middle East/Muslim World but they might not realise what path Israel will take them down if/when a 3rd country gets involved.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Oct 20, 2023 17:23:59 GMT Mr Poppy said:

I appreciate a two state solution looks like a naive dream at the moment but the only other two alternatives are:

1/ Israel dies (or leaves the Middle East) 
2/ Israel starts a regional 'religious' war that could turn global.

I think the real danger is that people fall in to the cycle of despair. The only long term solution has to be based on 'two states'. The fundamental issue currently, and I know this is difficult for those who are ideologically pro-Israel to accept, is that the Israelis and US did not keep to their side of the deal in regards to the Oslo accords, and expanded the settlements in the West Bank. To continue with the position that the Arab world will not accept the existence of Israel is a total fallacy. Since 1979 Egypt, previously the most implacable enemy of Israel has recognised its right to exist. In recent years, most Arab states either normalised relations or seek to/indicated recently a desire to do so.  

Those who seek to excuse Israeli actions by claiming the Muslim world will never accept the fact of the state of Israel, are betraying their own prejudices and ideological sympathies.

[shevii]

Some slightly positive news from an Israeli poll:

www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/poll-80-of-israelis-say-netanyahu-must-publicly-take-responsibility-for-oct-7-failures/

I'm afraid I don't know enough about Benny Gantz to form an opinion but his Wikipedia entry seems to make him a much more promising leader than Netanyahu, although hard to tell how much of an advocate for peace he might be in the present circumstances.

[Mr Poppy]

Oct 20, 2023 18:02:11 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Oct 20, 2023 17:23:59 GMT Mr Poppy said:

I appreciate a two state solution looks like a naive dream at the moment but the only other two alternatives are:

1/ Israel dies (or leaves the Middle East) 
2/ Israel starts a regional 'religious' war that could turn global.

I think the real danger is that people fall in to the cycle of despair. The only long term solution has to be based on 'two states'. The fundamental issue currently, and I know this is difficult for those who are ideologically pro-Israel to accept, is that the Israelis and US did not keep to their side of the deal in regards to the Oslo accords, and expanded the settlements in the West Bank. To continue with the position that the Arab world will not accept the existence of Israel is a total fallacy. Since 1979 Egypt, previously the most implacable enemy of Israel has recognised its right to exist. In recent years, most Arab states either normalised relations or seek to/indicated recently a desire to do so.  

Those who seek to excuse Israeli actions by claiming the Muslim world will never accept the fact of the state of Israel, are betraying their own prejudices and ideological sympathies.

Just to be clear I don't think the 'naive dream' is dead but it's a lot more challenging now that it was pre 7/10

Some of the Muslim world had accepted the state of Israel - but not all of it (eg Iran)

Like the US feeling the need to back Israel 'to win' then most of the Arab/Muslim world will want Israel to lose. Hence my/others concerns of escalation which Israel will see as it's least bad option (ie #2 in the above)

Not all Jews or even everyone in Israel want Israel to 'win' but if a two state solution (a draw) is not possible then they won't want Israel to lose. 

PS So to be crystal clear then I want a 'draw' but at the moment I think that is unlikely. 

[Deleted]

Oct 20, 2023 17:23:59 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Oct 20, 2023 16:58:41 GMT colin said:

I appreciate a two state solution looks like a naive dream at the moment 

I think so-because Iran  doesnt want it and is using its proxies to ensure that conditions are never condusive.*

The issue which has to be settled is not with proxies like Hamas & Hezbollah et al. It is the issue of who leads and shapes opinion in the Arab World. ie the primacy of Iran or SAudi. To a very large extent this is also the sectarian divide within Islam.

But its a power contest as these things usually are.  

You tell me how that is ever going to be resolved. Until it is Israel will continue to be in survival mode.


*And are still doing so. The response to the October 7 attack put an end to the accord with Saudi. And can you imagine what would have resulted had those cruise missiles from Yemen reached Israel ?