pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 22, 2023 20:01:17 GMT
In contrast the Green vote is quite 'lumpy' with areas of great strength and others where they are largely absent. This actually gives them a better chance of winning Westminster seats than UKIP had, but makes them less of a generic threat outside of their strong areas. Pedantry alert: a better non-technical term would be clumpy. The statistical term is 'over-dispersion', measured by the dispersion parameter k. The Green vote skews young and university-educated (even more so than Lab), so the best way to reduce the clumpiness would be to hold the GE during the summer vacation. There's a big student vote in Bristol West, so it's possible that election timing will have non-negligible impact on the Greens' chances of taking that seat. I reckon the Green vote will be squeezed, despite Starmer's refusal to recognise the urgency and magnitude of climate action required, because most Green-minded voters are strongly anti-Tory and motivated to get rid of this govt. If Starmer were to remove Miliband from the Shadow Climate role a few more voters might remain in the Green column, because he's credible in that role and at this point the main reason to believe that climate policy would be slightly better under a Lab govt. Mind you, Sunak's anti-green posturing is doing Starmer a favour on that score. My guess is that the RefUK vote will be squeezed much less, provided it still seems highly likely that Con will be defeated. Braverman's efforts don't seem to be convincing even voters on that wing of the right that the govt is doing a good job and the prospect of a certain Con defeat reduces the incentive for tactical Con votes (tactical votes won't stave off a Lab govt). The interesting issue will be Con abstentions. With my partisan glasses on I'd been assuming that many moderate ROC would find Braverman and her ilk so distasteful that they would sit on their hands, but then I remembered all the LOC people who voted for Corbyn's Lab, despite thinking Corbyn wasn't fit to govern and I don't see why ABL voters should be expected to behave differently. Even if they're not horrified by the prospect of a Starmer-led Lab govt they won't want it to have a large majority. I suppose the other point re the students is whether their vote would be influenced by the tactical factors in their 'home' constituency if the election is held in the summer. For example twp students who would have voted Green in Bristol West might well vote Lib Dem in Taunton Deane and Labour in Gloucester. I rather suspect that is what would happen. I have suspicion that RefUK will do rather poorly despite the Conservative's woes because Tice is an unimpressive leader with low media presence. Their local election and parliamentary by-election performances have been dismal. The thing that could change that would be the return of the media darling Nigel Farage, accompanied by the usual barrage of publicity. |
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Post by athena on Aug 22, 2023 20:02:14 GMT
MarkYoung voters are less inclined to allow our voting system to herd them into voting for the parties it favours, i.e. less inclined to vote tactically, which might make the Green vote a bit stickier than one would otherwise expect.
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Post by mercian on Aug 22, 2023 20:08:09 GMT
moby On costs of University accommodation, why don't more students stay at home and go to a local university? Most cities and some towns have at least one. I know that some people live in the sticks and others want to go to a particular uni e.g. Oxford of Cambridge or certain ones that excel in particular subjects but surely a lot of students could stay at home or get cheap shared accommodation in their home town. If it's a question of really struggling financially in order to stay away from home why bother (unless it's just to get away from mum and dad for a 3-year party of course). My step-niece went to one of Birmingham's universities while living with her mother. EDIT: I got that wrong she's a sort of step-grand-daughter, being the daughter of my son-in-law from a relationship prior to him marrying my daughter. Modern families are very complicated.
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Post by athena on Aug 22, 2023 20:14:56 GMT
pjw1961If the Green Party is serious about winning in Bristol West it'll mount a 'Vote in Bristol so your Green vote counts' operation to try to get its student voters to vote there regardless of when the election is held. In 1997 a friend of mine travelled home from Cambridge University to vote in Con-held St Albans so that he could help oust a Con.
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Trevor
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Post by Trevor on Aug 22, 2023 20:16:18 GMT
jib You and your other Tory chum seem a tad obsessed about events before your idiot brexitanians took charge. I suppose having fucked us all up completely you have to find some outlets for your frustration. WRT to Davey then if you wanted some 'useful idiots' then whilst LDEM didn't have that many MPs they had more than enough 'useful idiots' for Cameron to make use of. If Starmer ever needs some 'useful idiots' to make up for the conventional but not very useful idiots (SCG faction of LAB) then who you gonna call... Attachment DeletedJust give him some Red clothes to go with his red briefcase and you have your scapegoat for all the 'necessary' but not very popular stuff (and I can provide a very long list of issues were a 'useful idiot' would come in very handy). One problem with winning an OM is that you have no one to blame. Even if Starmer doesn't need LDEM MPs to win a King's Speech then I can see the temptation of giving a few red briefcases out to known useful idiots and Sir Ed Davey's CV looks great for that role  |
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Post by graham on Aug 22, 2023 20:28:03 GMT
pjw1961 If the Green Party is serious about winning in Bristol West it'll mount a 'Vote in Bristol so your Green vote counts' operation to try to get its student voters to vote there regardless of when the election is held. In 1997 a friend of mine travelled home from Cambridge University to vote in Con-held St Albans so that he could help oust a Con. I suspect that the Greens are far more likely to lose their existing seat in Brighton Pavilion than to win any seats elsewhere. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 22, 2023 20:38:02 GMT
There was an article the other day talking about the impact of climate change on the Mediterranean food supplies. If it starts affecting the food, will that impact green voting?
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Post by jib on Aug 22, 2023 20:46:36 GMT
pjw1961 If the Green Party is serious about winning in Bristol West it'll mount a 'Vote in Bristol so your Green vote counts' operation to try to get its student voters to vote there regardless of when the election is held. In 1997 a friend of mine travelled home from Cambridge University to vote in Con-held St Albans so that he could help oust a Con. Green Party have a 2% chance say electoral calculus. Sensible. Conversely, a 99% chance of retaining the Brighton seat. |
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Post by expatr on Aug 22, 2023 20:53:59 GMT
A 25 point Labour lead with Deltapoll. It's their equal-largest lead so far this year, and their first 'Lab 50' since March. That's 8 points higher than the last Delta, but they have a habit of moving in the opposite direction to other pollsters. Lab 50% Con 25% LibDem 9% Green 7% Ref 4% SNP 3% UKIP 1% oth 1% Fieldwork 17-21 Aug. deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Deltapoll-230821_trackers.pdf10-poll average of all polls now around 19%. Genuine question for you and other deep knowledge sorts.
There seems to have been massive noise in the last few polls (R+W national and red wall polls moving in opposite directions, this one). Is there any evidence that August polls are more volatile and less reliable (in the technical sense). My hypothesis being more people on holiday and uncontactable leads to less representative samples. Has there ever been a study on this?
Thanks in advance
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 22, 2023 20:54:29 GMT
pjw1961 If the Green Party is serious about winning in Bristol West it'll mount a 'Vote in Bristol so your Green vote counts' operation to try to get its student voters to vote there regardless of when the election is held. In 1997 a friend of mine travelled home from Cambridge University to vote in Con-held St Albans so that he could help oust a Con. I have no problem with that. Indeed, my daughter's vote would be more useful in Loughborough than Braintree, but I don't think she is registered there. The mythology on the right is that they all vote twice  . |
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Post by athena on Aug 22, 2023 20:58:41 GMT
graham jibI don't know either constituency and don't pay much attention to forecasts, but a 99% chance of retaining Brighton Pavilion sounds as if the model doesn't factor in Lucas's massive personal vote and unique status as a nationally recognised spokesperson for Green politics. Sian Berry won't be insulated in the same way from spillover of discontent with Brighton's Green council.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 22, 2023 21:00:21 GMT
pjw1961 If the Green Party is serious about winning in Bristol West it'll mount a 'Vote in Bristol so your Green vote counts' operation to try to get its student voters to vote there regardless of when the election is held. In 1997 a friend of mine travelled home from Cambridge University to vote in Con-held St Albans so that he could help oust a Con. Green Party have a 2% chance say electoral calculus. Sensible. Conversely, a 99% chance of retaining the Brighton seat. 2% too low, 99% too high IMO. Maybe 15% and 70%? www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/22/greens-brighton-pavilion-seat-after-caroline-lucas |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 22, 2023 21:00:30 GMT
pjw1961 If the Green Party is serious about winning in Bristol West it'll mount a 'Vote in Bristol so your Green vote counts' operation to try to get its student voters to vote there regardless of when the election is held. In 1997 a friend of mine travelled home from Cambridge University to vote in Con-held St Albans so that he could help oust a Con. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2023 21:03:54 GMT
Hoping nickp enjoyed the match. 🏀 Was in Liverpool getting drunk after work thing. Saw the tail end of the game on a screen in a bar. Hate losing to Arsenal but basically it happens about twice a year anyway. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2023 21:14:26 GMT
Hoping nickp enjoyed the match. 🏀 Was in Liverpool getting drunk after work thing. Saw the tail end of the game on a screen in a bar. Hate losing to Arsenal but basically it happens about twice a year anyway. Both sporting and pragmatic Nick. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 22, 2023 21:19:10 GMT
There was an article the other day talking about the impact of climate change on the Mediterranean food supplies. If it starts affecting the food, will that impact green voting? I'm told turnips make a good alternative to olives.  Seriously though, a lot of country folk in the Tory shires are concerned about the environment and climate change. For instance farmers will worry about what crops it will be possible to grow. If the Green Party was able to make inroads into these voters as well as their current base they could well become a serious player. However they are perceived to be left wing. I haven't read all of their manifesto but they want to increase corporation tax and introduce a Land Value Tax levied annually on the capital value of land. This will hit a lot of farmers badly. If they could get one or two farmers or big landowners as spokesmen (sorry spokespersons) it could be a game changer for them. A lot of people see them as the 'respectable' arm of Just Stop Oil and the other nutters - a bit like Sinn Fein was to the IRA. If this perception continues they will only ever be a fringe party in the UK. It's a shame because I'd be tempted to vote for them if they could make a sensible case for green policies without punishing ordinary people. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 22, 2023 21:26:21 GMT
A 25 point Labour lead with Deltapoll. It's their equal-largest lead so far this year, and their first 'Lab 50' since March. That's 8 points higher than the last Delta, but they have a habit of moving in the opposite direction to other pollsters. Lab 50% Con 25% LibDem 9% Green 7% Ref 4% SNP 3% UKIP 1% oth 1% Fieldwork 17-21 Aug. deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Deltapoll-230821_trackers.pdf10-poll average of all polls now around 19%. [ It would appear that my favourite pollster, the much lamented Angus Reed, have reinvented themselves as Deltapoll. This really is what I normally refer to as a "voluptuous" poll that affords "delightful" electoral prospects That is the extent of my psephological observations for now. I now hand over to Mercian for the rest of this evening's proceedings. Take it away Smashy! |
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Post by mercian on Aug 22, 2023 21:36:25 GMT
I now hand over to Mercian for the rest of this evening's proceedings. Take it away Smashy! Wherl thanks Nicey, I expect you're off to some of charriddy work. Hnuh hnuh. And now let's kick off this evening's Suppertime With Smashey with "Money, money, money" by Abba. (In the unlikely event any youngsters are here that was a pastiche of Harry Enfield and Paul Whitehouse from about 25? years ago.) EDIT: More like 30 years! www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQ33A3CY2Hs |
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Post by James E on Aug 22, 2023 21:38:48 GMT
A 25 point Labour lead with Deltapoll.... (etc) Genuine question for you and other deep knowledge sorts.
There seems to have been massive noise in the last few polls (R+W national and red wall polls moving in opposite directions, this one). Is there any evidence that August polls are more volatile and less reliable (in the technical sense). My hypothesis being more people on holiday and uncontactable leads to less representative samples. Has there ever been a study on this?
Thanks in advance
I'm afraid that I'm a 'Don't Know' on that one. Looking back at polls from previous Augusts, I don't see unusually variable polls. And I would expect that the lack of everyday Westminster politics in August would be more likely to lead to stagnation rather than volatility. My best guess is that we've just had a series of polls at the outer limits of Margin of Error, which have all come at once. |
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Post by eor on Aug 22, 2023 22:53:52 GMT
pjw1961 If the Green Party is serious about winning in Bristol West it'll mount a 'Vote in Bristol so your Green vote counts' operation to try to get its student voters to vote there regardless of when the election is held. In 1997 a friend of mine travelled home from Cambridge University to vote in Con-held St Albans so that he could help oust a Con. I have no problem with that. Indeed, my daughter's vote would be more useful in Loughborough than Braintree, but I don't think she is registered there. The mythology on the right is that they all vote twice . That particular gripe always makes me smile - getting students to vote once is hard enough! Warwick University's campus is so large (and so concentrated in one Coventry ward) it could pretty much have had its own councillors for decades but despite varying levels of effort I've seen by the Students' Union over the years, they just can't get the students to register and vote, and as a result the campus has a permanently Tory representation on the City council, chosen by the balance of the suburbs around it. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 22, 2023 23:42:45 GMT
Anent "Student seats"
HoC Library published an analysis of the limited available data on this for the 2019 election.
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/general-election-2019-voting-patterns-in-student-seats/
"Turnout in ‘student seats’ was 65.6% – below the GB total of 67.5%. This turnout gap is similar to 2017, when turnout in ‘student seats’ was 67.1% and the GB total was 68.9%. So, there is little evidence of a disproportionate drop in turnout in these seats, despite the worries about a December election falling near the end of term.
In 2019, Labour won 55 out of 77 ‘student seats’. This is perhaps not surprising given that younger people are much more likely to vote Labour than older people, and ‘student seats’ are younger than average. Labour won almost half of votes cast in these 77 seats – and 18% of the party’s total national votes came from these seats, compared with 7% of all Conservative votes. The Conservatives won 10 of the seats.
Eight of the 12 ‘student seats’ in Wales and Scotland were won by Plaid Cymru (PC) or the SNP respectively."
Attachment Deleted
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Post by moby on Aug 23, 2023 5:03:50 GMT
moby On costs of University accommodation, why don't more students stay at home and go to a local university? Most cities and some towns have at least one. I know that some people live in the sticks and others want to go to a particular uni e.g. Oxford of Cambridge or certain ones that excel in particular subjects but surely a lot of students could stay at home or get cheap shared accommodation in their home town. If it's a question of really struggling financially in order to stay away from home why bother (unless it's just to get away from mum and dad for a 3-year party of course). My step-niece went to one of Birmingham's universities while living with her mother. Good point. I suppose we also should remember though that the cost of living crisis always hits the already disadvantaged disproportionately wherever they live or attend uni. Are we just accepting that as an inevitable consequence within society. If so Keir Starmer is not exaggerating when he says many people will simply choose not to go because of the burden it creates. Are we going back to the days when your opportunities and career depend on the resources of your parents. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 23, 2023 5:38:20 GMT
That Delta Poll was so "delicious' it deserves an encore 😀
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 23, 2023 5:39:32 GMT
Rather than focusing on the junior partner in the government elected four general elections and five prime ministers ago maybe our resident brexitanians could just apologise for the damage they've inflicted on us all by their actions. youtu.be/Galf9ybWB1c |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 23, 2023 6:20:02 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 23, 2023 6:34:06 GMT
 Remember to use only as part of a calorie controlled diet. |
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Post by jib on Aug 23, 2023 6:56:15 GMT
Rather than focusing on the junior partner in the government elected four general elections and five prime ministers ago maybe our resident brexitanians could just apologise for the damage they've inflicted on us all by their actions. youtu.be/Galf9ybWB1cYou really do have a problem with free choice and democracy don't you! Very happy with my advisory voting decision. Zero chance of ever apologising to the likes of you sonny. Clearly need to get back your Remain forum and carry on plotting.  ![]() ![]() |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 23, 2023 6:57:48 GMT
WRT to Davey then if you wanted some 'useful idiots' then whilst LDEM didn't have that many MPs they had more than enough 'useful idiots' for Cameron to make use of. If Starmer ever needs some 'useful idiots' to make up for the conventional but not very useful idiots (SCG faction of LAB) then who you gonna call... View AttachmentJust give him some Red clothes to go with his red briefcase and you have your scapegoat for all the 'necessary' but not very popular stuff i always find it interesting what you as a very pro tory and brexit chap choose to attack. Its clear you see libs as a serious threat. Which indeed they are as a surprisingly sensible right wing option. Whereas in 2015 being seen as tory light did them a lot of harm, right now its a plus in con heartlands. Even left inclined voters must see them as a desireable tactical choice compared to the very hard line con government. In the US republicans in recent years sought to demotivate democrat voters so they wouldnt turn out by claiming dems were no different to them. Con here have adopted the same tactic. The problem comes however in a three horse race in right wing areas where success at discrediting lab leaves voters looking thoughtfully at the libs. And so here you are now seeking to portray libs as just as bad as lab. What really hurt libs in 2015 was being seen as throwing away distinguishing policies. Stuff like legalizing cannabis and pro eu got them elected. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 23, 2023 7:01:19 GMT
A 25 point Labour lead with Deltapoll. It's their equal-largest lead so far this year, and their first 'Lab 50' since March. That's 8 points higher than the last Delta, but they have a habit of moving in the opposite direction to other pollsters. Lab 50% Con 25% LibDem 9% Green 7% Ref 4% SNP 3% UKIP 1% oth 1% Fieldwork 17-21 Aug. deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Deltapoll-230821_trackers.pdf10-poll average of all polls now around 19%. Genuine question for you and other deep knowledge sorts.
There seems to have been massive noise in the last few polls (R+W national and red wall polls moving in opposite directions, this one). Is there any evidence that August polls are more volatile and less reliable (in the technical sense). My hypothesis being more people on holiday and uncontactable leads to less representative samples. Has there ever been a study on this? Thanks in advance
it might also be that being on holiday changes ones outlook.... |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 23, 2023 7:07:15 GMT
graham jibI don't know either constituency and don't pay much attention to forecasts, but a 99% chance of retaining Brighton Pavilion sounds as if the model doesn't factor in Lucas's massive personal vote and unique status as a nationally recognised spokesperson for Green politics. Sian Berry won't be insulated in the same way from spillover of discontent with Brighton's Green council. Although if Lucas treats this as a handover and campaigns alongside the new candidate a lot of personal appeal might be transferred. |
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