11-AUG 2023 : LAB: 48% / CON: 24% / LDM: 10% / GRN: 6%

[crossbat11]

Aug 21, 2023 10:26:45 GMT steve said:

lululemonmustdobetter
I agree on low turnout but I think that will primarily be because Tories stay home.
If vanilla extract Brexit Labour also suffer low turn out ( which I doubt) that's good news for my party who as far as I can see are up for the election the sooner the better.

I think it's premature to predict turnout and levels of voter enthusiasm this far out from an election.

I suspect it might be quite a lively campaign that may well stimulate interest, although we have to accept, regrettably, that 30-35% of the electorate seem to routinely sit out general elections now.

I strongly suspect that much of that is to do with our voting system and the sentiment it generates that voting is a waste of time. My vote doesn't matter and makes no difference to the outcome.

[Mark]

Aug 20, 2023 17:52:17 GMT domjg said:

The Netherlands and Denmark leading the way on support for Ukraine by agreeing to supply 42 and 19 F-16s respectively. The barriers fall eventually, I just wish they'd fall sooner. I can only hope that somewhere someone has decided there's actually method in this drawn out incrementalism.

As colin says, the method is helping Ukraine militarily as much as possible without getting into a war with Russia ourselves.

I do worry, however, that on the current course of action, we are risking this already.

We do not really know Putin's red lines - or more to the point, Putin has huffed and puffed and bluffed about nuclear weapons at every stage - so are unlikely to know them until / if we have crossed them.

We are told that there are limits on some of the more advanced weapons, eg so that Russia does not directly targeted with the weapons we supply, but, what's to stop a Ukrainian general in the field going rogue?

Yes, it is true that Putin is using nuclear blackmail (and if nuclear weapons didn't exist, we would be in there kicking Russian arse all the way back to Moscow), but, isn't that a design factor of uclear weapons themselves? Any nuclear power can do so. For this not to happen relies on good actors on all sides, permanently.

Any nuclear power can do so. These weapons have only existed for 70-odd years, we have nearly had delibarate nuclear war twice (Cuban missile crisis, Able archer). accidental nclear war several times....and now with Putin, essentialy, nuclear blackmail.

In terms of Ukraine, the vast bulk of wars have ended eithor when one side has such a massive military advantage that the other surrenders or is defeted or by negotiation.

The former isn't going to happen in Ukraine any time soon - for eithor side.

[Mr Poppy]

Aug 21, 2023 10:39:56 GMT Mark said:

Aug 20, 2023 17:52:17 GMT domjg said:

The Netherlands and Denmark leading the way on support for Ukraine by agreeing to supply 42 and 19 F-16s respectively. The barriers fall eventually, I just wish they'd fall sooner. I can only hope that somewhere someone has decided there's actually method in this drawn out incrementalism.

As colin says, the method is helping Ukraine militarily as much as possible without getting into a war with Russia ourselves.

I do worry, however, that on the current course of action, we are risking this already.

We do not really know Putin's red lines - or more to the point, Putin has huffed and puffed and bluffed about nuclear weapons at every stage - so are unlikely to know them until / if we have crossed them.

We are told that there are limits on some of the more advanced weapons, eg so that Russia does not directly targeted with the weapons we supply, but, what's to stop a Ukrainian general in the field going rogue?

Yes, it is true that Putin is using nuclear blackmail (and if nuclear weapons didn't exist, we would be in there kicking Russian arse all the way back to Moscow), but, isn't that a design factor of uclear weapons themselves? Any nuclear power can do so. For this not to happen relies on good actors on all sides, permanently.

Any nuclear power can do so. These weapons have only existed for 70-odd years, we have nearly had delibarate nuclear war twice (Cuban missile crisis, Able archer). accidental nclear war several times....and now with Putin, essentialy, nuclear blackmail.

In terms of Ukraine, the vast bulk of wars have ended eithor when one side has such a massive military advantage that the other surrenders or is defeted or by negotiation.

The former isn't going to happen in Ukraine any time soon - for eithor side.

See Ukraine thread. UK has already given every single F-16 we had to Ukraine (ie none, as RAF don't use F-16s). We did however train Ukrainian pilots in UK and the delay on those with F16s to give was due to US needing to give 'approval'. 

Weapons supplied by NATO are clearly already being used for 'offensive' measures and Putin hasn't attacked a NATO country yet. NATO countries supplying F-16s does up the ante. Anyway, see the Ukraine thread for points, with sources, already made.

ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/97898/thread

[alec]

Learning to live with things; this, from the BBC, 1965 - a man learns to live with a pigeon on his head -

[neilj]

What tory MPs think of Braverman
‘Suella Braverman must go, she’s shit’:
inews.co.uk/news/politics/suella-braverman-must-go-tories-call-rishi-sunak-oust-home-secretary-reshuffle-looms-2557836
“Braverman has got to go, she is shit. All of this right-wing nonsense is just playing into Labour’s hands.”

Another Tory insider claimed ministers were “trying to blame each other post the barge fiasco”, adding: “A couple of MPs who are normally supportive of Suella have said if she can’t deliver then she should go.

“But No 10 are basically worried she’ll machine gun them for the next six months in the run up to the election, which she will. She would lead the charge on quitting the ECHR [the European Convention on Human Rights], which would be a nightmare”.

Sunak won't get rid of her as he's a weak leader

[steve]

alec
A bit like living with brexit☺

"Why don't you just push it off"
Too simple
He should just wear a cat on his head to mitigate the damage.

[steve]

"But No 10 are basically worried she’ll machine gun them for the next six months in the run up to the election, "

Unless she has extra magazines the odds are on their survival.Unless she can get them all to line up in a column.
They're just being snowflakes

[steve]

In relation to nothing in particular came across this picture online yesterday.

It's my great uncle the artist James McBey the resemblance to me and my son is quite surprising.

Odd as very few of the other McBey family members I've come across look anything like him or us.


Attachment Deleted

[neilj]

Polling on 'woke' issues, spoiler not good news for the tories
Also the large majority of voters really don't like Anderson using the F word

[Danny]

Further to my post from this mornings news about insolvent local authorities comes a story about growing numbers of potholes.

In 2006 local authorities spent 4bn on road repairs. In 2019 it was 2bn. The interviewee reckoned there is a backlog of repairs totalling 16bn. He reckoned x31 as much is spent on maintaining motorways per mile as on local authority controlled roads.

Its another example of a bill which will fall due for the next government.

Conservatives have really done their very best to ensure that for whoever takes over there will truly be no money left.

[steve]

Further to my post from this mornings news about insolvent local authorities comes a story about growing numbers of potholes.

We need to look into these!

[alec]

That Russian rocket to the moon: they were aiming for Kyiv.

Oh, those Russians....

[steve]

alec
They missed because there wasn't a hospital, church or playground to aim at.

[mercian]

Aug 21, 2023 9:37:16 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Mr Poppy
"Hopefully it's clear why I ignore a lot of people for 'time wasting'"

I thought that was what the site was for? 🤨

[wb61]

neilj

Looking at those polling results on so called "woke" (which in any event will have a personal definition for most who give a response) issues, it seems really odd the UK Gov is doubling down on such matters. If a government in trouble is trying to change the narrative it would usually look towards an issue with significant cut-through in popular opinion as to priorities. One wonders if, like poor Generals, they are still fighting the last war?

[wb61]

That child is obviously an art critic unimpressed with the PM's attempts at surrealist art 

[alec]

Sure we're going to see lots of agitation from MPs about the fact that Lucy Letby has declined to attend her sentencing hearing.

If any of these are Conservatives, maybe worth asking them if this is the same as their former PM declining to attend his sentencing tribunal when Johnson was facing a ban from the HoC?

[steve]

Since the last time Dorries spoke in parliament there's been a new head of state and two new prime minister's.
Phil Moorehouse 's take.

youtu.be/OlNz3QwaXNs

[leftieliberal]

Mark Pack on MRP and whether swing in the GE is likely to be uniform or proportional.
theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/mrp-what-it-is-and-why-it-may-or 

Mark Pack makes a good point that there were two MRP polls published just before the 2017 General Election. One, for Lord Ashcroft, was wildly wrong; the other by YouGov for The Times was very close to the actual result. Because confirmed predictions get more publicity more than wrong predictions, the story in the media was about how good the YouGov MRP model was (whereas they may have just been lucky in their choice of parameters).

In their 2019 GE MRP poll (4-10/12/2019) YouGov got overall vote shares pretty close to the actual result, but their seat totals were well out (Con 311-367, Lab 206-256 both 95% confidence ranges) The actual result was Con 365, Lab 202 so just around the 95% confidence range limits. 

He also mentions Owen Winter's study of a particular MRP poll
owenwinter.co.uk/2021/01/03/whats-up-with-the-sunday-times-mrp-projection/
Again a MRP poll which produced some odd results when drilled down to constituency level, which Owen thinks may have been due to overfitting. The problem with MRP polls is that the methodology used to create them, while transparent at the highest level is quite opaque at the detailed level as Justin Ibbett says in response on Twitter Yep this is likely to be the case and is a known problem with MRP (over smoothing and regularisation, being too pulled to the last result). 2019 individual vote will drive the model (for obvious reasons). We can’t adjust those parameters values as they’re learned from the data

So now we are approaching another GE and we can expect more MRP polls which, by their nature, will be also affected by the 2019 vote. We need to be aware of this and treat MRP polls with caution.

[steve]

Regime announces environmental awareness week.

[steve]

alec
Not exactly the same.
While the press might like to see Letby in court as it might be of interest to the public unless the victims families have requested it which is a different issue I really don't see that it serves any significant purpose.

Letby has been remanded in custody for over two years , she will almost certainly be handed a whole of life term unless she is institutionalised instead, otherwise she will almost certainly be returned to the same prison and cell she would have left to attend.

None of this will come as a surprise justice is served whether she's there or not.
The punishment is the custodial sentence not the pantomime around it.

If it's simply to allow the media the opportunity to use a news event as entertainment it's probably better all round if it doesn't happen.

* And as I wrote the whole of life sentence was handed down, quite right in my opinion.

[johntel]

Aug 21, 2023 9:01:48 GMT crossbat11 said:

johntel

Yes, I agree, watching football can still have its eventful moments depending on where you go. Fewer and further between than in the old days, but not totally gone. I'd certainly watch my back if I had to venture to St Andrews for a Blues v Villa game again. My front too, probably.

I'm sorry you came across nickp at Selhurst Park on your visit there!

Well to be fair I did accidentally elbow my neighbour in the ribs in my excitement, so his reply of "Just don't, OK?" was fair enough in the circumstances. If it was you nick I apologise.  I did do a little clap when Palace equalised in recompense. 

[johntel]

Aug 21, 2023 12:47:29 GMT steve said:

alec
Not exactly the same.
While the press might like to see Letby in court as it might be of interest to the public unless the victims families have requested it which is a different issue I really don't see that it serves any significant purpose.

Letby has been remanded in custody for over two years , she will almost certainly be handed a whole of life term unless she is institutionalised instead, otherwise she will almost certainly be returned to the same prison and cell she would have left to attend.

None of this will come as a surprise justice is served whether she's there or not.
The punishment is the custodial sentence not the pantomime around it.

If it's simply to allow the media the opportunity to use a news event as entertainment it's probably better all round if it doesn't happen.

* And as I wrote the whole of life sentence was handed down, quite right in my opinion.

Totally agree.  As if a multiple cold-blooded murderer gives a toss what is said in court by victims or anyone else. 

[wb61]

Aug 21, 2023 13:45:18 GMT johntel said:

Aug 21, 2023 9:01:48 GMT crossbat11 said:

johntel

Yes, I agree, watching football can still have its eventful moments depending on where you go. Fewer and further between than in the old days, but not totally gone. I'd certainly watch my back if I had to venture to St Andrews for a Blues v Villa game again. My front too, probably.

I'm sorry you came across nickp at Selhurst Park on your visit there!

Well to be fair I did accidentally elbow my neighbour in the ribs in my excitement, so his reply of "Just don't, OK?" was fair enough in the circumstances. If it was you nick I apologise.  I did do a little clap when Palace equalised in recompense. 

Never really understood this didn't happen, when watching Rugby Union, it is common to clap an opponent team scoring (albeit politely and unless you are playing the Turks {Llanelli for uninitiated, no Idea why that nickname} and do so with vigour if it is a particularly well worked try). No idea if it is the same in other parts of the UK! However, I have noticed a more recent tendency amongst younger fans not to do so.  

[graham]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 45% (+1)
CON: 26% (+1)
LDM: 10% (=)
GRN: 8% (=)
RFM: 7% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @yougov, 17-18 Aug.
Changes w/ 10-11 Aug.

[markw]

The Lucy Letby murders might not have happened if the lessons learned from a similar tragedy thirty years ago had been more than organisational hand washing.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beverley_Allitt

The previous tragedy led to lots of lessons learned and new policies designed to protect whistleblowers and encourage positive responses from managers but now we seem to be back to learning lessons again. Now we have whistleblowers being forced to apologise to the perpetrator and trusts anxious to defend their reputations to the detriment of the victims.

I do hope that some of those responsible are held to account in court as that may prevent more organisational amnesia but I am not going to hold my breath.

[neilj]

Letby grew up just three hundred yards from where I live. When on police bail, before charge, she lived there with her parents. I saw her a couple of times, but didn't know her
The house is an unremarkable house in an unremarkable street. From people who knew her and her family they say she appeared a normal pleasant person from a normal pleasant family
I guess it just shows you really don't know what is happening inside someone's head,
Not all monsters are obvious

[wb61]

Aug 21, 2023 14:22:38 GMT neilj said:

Letby grew up just three hundred yards from where I live. When on police bail, before charge, she lived there with her parents. I saw her a couple of times, but didn't know her
The house is an unremarkable house in an unremarkable street. From people who knew her and her family they say she appeared a normal pleasant person from a normal pleasant family
I guess it just shows you really don't know what is happening inside someone's head,
Not all monsters are obvious

Not a criticism neilj, but I have always thought that the use of the description "monster" or similar is not appropriate for crimes of this nature as IMO it tends to minimise  responsibility and places them in a category outside humanity. Those who are not insane have made a choice to behave as they have and could have chosen not to; they are reprehensible individuals but fully responsible for their actions. The description of "monster" would tend to mean that this was in their nature and not a choice. These are evil deeds, but the person is not inherently evil, again they have chosen to act in an evil way when they could have chosen not to. I always thought (before the word changed meaning in the 1990's) that "wicked" was a good descriptor as it showed the fact that the person had chosen to act in that way. 

Conviction was not a certainty as the entire case was built on circumstantial evidence. We were taught about such evidence at Bar School in this way Chief Baron Pollock in R v Exall (1866) 4 F & F 922 at 929 comparing circumstantial evidence to a rope comprised of several cords stating


"One strand of the cord might be insufficient to sustain the weight, but three stranded together may be quite of sufficient strength. Thus it may be in circumstantial evidence - there may be a combination of circumstances, no one of which would raise a reasonable conviction, or more than a mere suspicion: but the whole taken together, may create a strong conclusion of guilt, that is, with as much certainty as human affairs can require or admit of."


By the way the whole life tariff was inevitable upon conviction.

[mercian]

wb61
As you're around, what's your view on whether the then management of the hospital could be prosecuted?

[wb61]

Aug 21, 2023 15:00:21 GMT mercian said:

wb61
As you're around, what's your view on whether the then management of the hospital could be prosecuted?

Sorry but I should not offer an opinion. I can comment on the law in a general way or on concluded cases and the results, but because of my current role commenting on a specific case which may be brought would not be appropriate.


What I can say is that Corporate Manslaughter is an offence pursuant to Section 1 of the Corporate Manslaughter and Corporate Homicide Act 2007. That requires proof of a gross breach of a duty of care. It used to be the case that the prosecution had show that a person who was the ‘controlling mind’ of the organisation was personally responsible for the offence, that was abolished but corporate manslaughter based on gross negligence is still a notoriously difficult charge to prove because of the high threshold to prove liability. The corporate body would not be liable if a junior level of management is exclusively responsible for the failings which amount to a breach of duty. The failings of senior management must have formed a substantial element in the breach. However, the failings at senior management level do not of themselves have to amount to a gross breach of the duty of care to prove the offence the organisation as a whole must be considered. However because the defendant is a corporate body, the penalty must be a fine the DPP would have to give some thought would have as to whether it is in the public interest to prosecute just to move public money from one budget to another, and the fact that there is to be an inquiry would probably be put in the balance there.