Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 16, 2023 1:05:48 GMT
Absolutely. Whatever is the point of electing people to do a job and then trying to do it yourself? If they mess up, kick them out next time. The awkward point in this case being that in 2015 parties pledging to hold such a referendum got the majority of votes cast in the election, and won the majority of seats. So holding it was one of the very jobs they were elected to do  More generally, I think significant constitutional change should indeed be subject to referendum, if just because the impacts of such change may not be practically reversible by simply changing the government at the next GE, or if we're talking changes to the electoral system itself then they may significantly reduce the chances of the incumbent government being removable at that election! At the same time, 50%+1 is crazy for that kind of vote, there should need to be overwhelming support for constitutional change, precisely to avoid the kind of situation we have now with Brexit, where something drastic that support has ebbed to and fro on over many years gets fixed in place based on a narrow snapshot moment. Lots of countries manage to hold referendums on various issues (eg Switzerland). However, the disgraceful 'non-acceptance' of a democratic vote by Remainers after EURef does suggest that UK can't handle referendums on important issues, so I'd be fine with not holding IndyRef2 or any vote to ever Rejoin.EU  Technically any future HMG could just Rejoin.EU, assuming they'd take us, without a referendum, but as you point out a future HMG could (and likely would) then Leave.EU without a referendum when the 'blame' was turned back on EU (and the costs of Rejoin, lose of vetoes, etc became known). LDEM campaigned on 'Revoke' into GE'19, that didn't go very well did it. Brexit took a GE to propose a ref, the actual ref, and then 2 more GEs before Boris 'Got Brexit Done' (for GB and Rishi finished it with the WF for NI) Happy to also agree on something like requirement for 'super majority' for constitutional change such as Indy/Rejoin. Similar to the Clarity Acts in Canada then the requirement could be 50%+1 of the electorate (eg 63% Yes/Rejoin on 80% turnout) - although maybe give Scotland one last go on the simples 50%+1 of people who can be bothered to vote. As well as the above points then, for UK at least, we showed that referendums on divisive issues can suck pretty much all the political bandwidth out of the room for many years. Thankfully the main UK parties have moved on from Brexit and don't want to go through that process, in reverse, again. Most Important Issue polling also shows very few people care about Brexit anymore - although unrepresentative small pockets of Social Media might still relentlessly bang on about their purple passports being 'stolen' or whatever. 😴 💤 💤 |
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Post by moby on Aug 16, 2023 4:28:47 GMT
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Post by moby on Aug 16, 2023 4:52:51 GMT
Various pollsters have claimed to tabulate reasons why people voted leave, and indeed they gave many reasons. However what you point out is that they still all had this in common, that they believed it would not cost anything. The people who did believe it would cost them might still have wanted to get immigrants out, or stop Brussels interfering in the Uk, but recognised they were not willing to pay a price to achieve that. The lie which caused brexit to happen was that it would be at no financial cost.
The question is, what retribution will leave voters exact as more and more of them come to realise they were comprehensively lied to by the leave campaign in this absolutely key respect?
You lot keep going on about this but can anyone actually show any figures to prove that people are worse of because of Brexit? I know it's widely accepted amongst Remoaners and yes we are in tough times for a lot of people, but can any specific Brexit financial effects be disentangled from Covid and Putin's war? Reintroducing barriers to trade has nothing to do with Putin or COVID. The article goes on to discuss the switch of immigration from the EU to other countries and also mentions lower growth figures since Brexit and says it has to date accounted for between 2-3% drop in GDP. |
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steve
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Posts: 12,633
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Post by steve on Aug 16, 2023 5:06:51 GMT
Prior to number 45 becoming President the average number of criminal charges against present or former Presidents of the United States was 0.
Post traitor it's now 1.9
91 criminal charges for the crapo de crapo.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 16, 2023 5:12:31 GMT
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,376
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Post by neilj on Aug 16, 2023 5:38:11 GMT
Interesting polling on electoral systems, little change from February - I'd love to see a similar poll done in the aftermath of Labour being elected with a landslide majority. That's not meant in a snide way - I'd be genuinely curious to see whether Labour voters' views about the system would change with the onset of a likely prolonged period of unchallenged power. It's a good question, for me I have been a supporter of PR even when Blair won in 1997 I see it as a question of democracy, people being more able to vote for who they want, rather than vote against who they don't want, which the current system often leads to It may mean compromise if the party I support is in the winning coalition Government, but that often happens within political parties anyway. I also think it will mean if smaller parties get to share power they will be forced to face the realities of governing and the sometimes hard choices that have to be made |
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 16, 2023 5:44:23 GMT
Well, Midnight with Mercian was a bit of a damp squib last night wasn't it? There he was, "catching up" like a non-stop one-man right wing rebuttal unit and "we no likey" any of his posts. Not even Lord Haw Haw from British Columbia. Maybe Big Col will come in with some retrospective stroking.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 16, 2023 5:57:41 GMT
You lot keep going on about this but can anyone actually show any figures to prove that people are worse of because of Brexit? I know it's widely accepted amongst Remoaners and yes we are in tough times for a lot of people, but can any specific Brexit financial effects be disentangled from Covid and Putin's war? In a sense of course, rejoiners don't have to prove it. In the same way voters took the word of leave for their claims brexit would save money for the UK because it was obvious we were paying them money each year, voters only have to look around them to see how much worse the economy has been since brexit. Its 'obvious' things have become worse since Brexit (whether or not brexit is to blame). As to blaming it on covid lockdown, thats a touchy one because that was a deliberately created recession which we chose to create. Covid as an approximation doesnt affect healthy people of working age, there was no reason it should cause a recession. Nor is there evidence lockdowns (etc) made much difference to the deaths total in other groups. So all in all, no one wants to talk about that either. Blaming covid raises a lot of awkward questions. And Ukraine...the problem for us has mostly been energy costs. This has knocked on to the price of just about everything, just as it did in the 1970s. How much better would the UKs position have been if we had continued the policies of the last labour government to push energy saving and push land based wind power. Twelve years worth of lost opportunity to head off that crisis. Another tricky one to go into in depth. Of course labour didnt oppose brexit either, so the real problem for rejoiners is labour's unwillingness to admit fault here too. However, Covid special measures have ended. The Ukraine war will end. What will remain is brexit and as the Uk economy continues to decline, the other possible explanations will become increasingly discredited. It will be fascinating after the next election as con enter a period of internal strife to decide a future policy whether the pro EU faction re emerges and they become a rejoin party. Blaming the failings of their period in office on leavers. Its the obvious thing to do if their vote completely collapses and the national rejoin percentage keeps rising. |
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steve
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Posts: 12,633
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Post by steve on Aug 16, 2023 6:04:48 GMT
Interesting video on the European union introducing " right to repair" environmentally sound and will end the absurdity of unrepairable sealed tech devices. Current generation I pads for example make it impossible for independent technicians to replace a 50p connector because Apple have designed the device in such a manner that it won't work if this is done , instead a Apple repair will cost around £350-500, most users will simply not bother and replace. Similarly sealed batteries, the European union legislation will require that these are easily replaceable with no special tools by the owner, just as they used to be. A few £'s instead of a new handset or tablet. The legislation has given the manufacturers a three year run in and hopefully the size of the European union market will mean brexitanians benefit as well, but of course there's no guarantee here because our removal from the European union has made satisfying the U.K. market far less important. youtu.be/Fo-k-Qosy8A |
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Danny
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Posts: 10,355
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Post by Danny on Aug 16, 2023 6:13:40 GMT
Why is rising pay not a good thing ? Because if the MPC considers that inflation going forward will be driven by pay rises, they will raise interest rates even more, producing a recession and even higher unemployment. News this morning interviewed a haulage firm. What they said was that the shortage of drivers has now eased, which had been pushing up driver wages. However their costs for maintenance and insurance had soared. They also specifically noted that they borrowed a lot of money after covid, and now interest on debt was soaring. These new factors are now being passed on in their charges. So essentially they confirmed interest rate rises were causing inflation. The question of a future need to switch to electric vehicles at further cost looms on the horizon. That isnt to say wages arent still going up, just that the shortage crisis has eased. However, I was talking to someone this week, a woman, who now retired once upon a time used to drive lorries when a woman doing so would have been less common. She observed that lorry driving was a job you could do if you had no qualifications at all, frankly could hardly read. If you were the sort of person who just never got on with school work and exams, then that didnt matter. But now increasingly even to drive a lorry you need to pass courses aside from simply getting a license. Just like doctors, historic low pay has turned around to bite the government now. The whole system has changed so that in order to get a job people need more qualifications not less. This must be reinforcing the problem that the total unemployed may now be a poor measure of labour shortages, which need to be looked at sector by sector. millions of unemployed people without the necessary qualifications or experience to be lorry drivers, or doctors, cannot end the shortage of either. Getting waiters fired by raising interest rates so people stop going to restaurants isnt going to create more doctors or indeed drivers. Isnt going to make medical services or delivery costs any less. Nor indeed bring down restauarant charges as the industry shrinks. There is a strong risk the link between rising interest and falling inflation no longer works, if it ever did. It wasnt a stunning succes back under Thatcher either. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 16, 2023 6:18:29 GMT
mercian "You lot keep going on about this but can anyone actually show any figures to prove that people are worse of because of Brexit? " Of course losing the right to vote in European union elections, doesn't matter between elections or if you don't vote and losing the right to freedom of movement within the European union doesn't matter if you never used it. Similarly if you run a business that doesn't rely on any European union parts, staff, market, or customers you might not think there's much change. If you're wealthy the fact that inflation is higher and the products you like are more expensive , might go unnoticed. If your £ is worth less against the euro this won't matter if you hold your wealth in $ in an offshore tax haven. If your hospital or care home has lost its European union staff because of the casual xenophobia and restrictions they face that's 👌 you're not old or ill at the moment. I don't see any issues here move along now while I stick my head back in the sand .
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 16, 2023 6:23:54 GMT
Andy Malkinson case has taken another twist as it appears the DNA evidence confirming the presence at the crime of another unknown man became available in 2007. This seems to have been part of a general re-examination of cold cases with new DNA techniques. It seems about the same time the Rachel Nikel case was finally solved and the person who spent 14 months in prison before his trial for her murder collapsed, finally started to be acknowledged as innocent and obtained compensation ten years later.
However it seems there is a limit how often you can request an appeal and Malkinson's lawyers had used up his already. Only the CCRB could do so now, and they concluded the location of the sample was not conclusive evidence another person had been responsible for the crime, so refused to order further investigation at public expense. The location in question seems to have been saliva found on the victim's clothing where she was bitten by her attacker.
I can't help wondering whether the formal decision explaining their reasoning states exactly why they did this. It would have cost money they didnt have.
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
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Post by steve on Aug 16, 2023 6:24:12 GMT
Annual inflation falling to 6.8% welcome relief to consumers who are now getting poorer more slowly.
Despite its sharp fall last month, the UK’s inflation rate remained higher than that of the US (3.2%) and the eurozone (5.3%) in July.
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Post by moby on Aug 16, 2023 6:58:24 GMT
Annual inflation falling to 6.8% welcome relief to consumers who are now getting poorer more slowly. Despite its sharp fall last month, the UK’s inflation rate remained higher than that of the US (3.2%) and the eurozone (5.3%) in July. Strip out food and energy which vary anyway due to international volatility and the rate is still very high. |
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,376
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Post by neilj on Aug 16, 2023 7:09:38 GMT
Some talk about pay increases yesterday on here
Worth looking at the detail
Annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 7.8%
Annual growth in employees’ average total pay (including bonuses) was 8.2%
Annual average regular pay growth for the private sector was 8.2%
Annual average regular pay growth for the public sector was 6.2%
So Public Sector pay falls further behind the private sector
This has real world consequences in aggravating the difficulty in recruiting and retaining staff
But should be noted in the private sector there were discrepancies in pay
'The finance and business services sector saw the largest annual regular growth rate at 9.4%'
So once again the people at the top of the income scale in Banking etc get the biggest increases
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2023 7:24:07 GMT
Nope-its an actual loss. But don't take my word for it :- "These are real losses, which taxpayers will have to bear. The public sector has bought assets at a high price, sold some of them at lower prices, and those that it still holds are now worth less on average than it paid for them." NIESR And just a real for The Fed and the ECB So where precisely did the trillion pounds used to buy bonds come from? I mean, did they borrow it from someone so it has to be paid back? Ans- no, they just invented it from thin air. Doesnt matter if they never got any of it back, they would never have to repay anything to anyone. Thats what it means to be a central bank. Asset Purchases by BoE reached £895bn when it was stopped-not a " trillion pounds". The Banks and insurance companies from whom it bought UK Government Bonds ( Gilts) "received" Reserves at the BoE in exchange-ie the BoE owes them £895 in total. As interest rates rise and Gilt prices fall BoE incurs losses when they sell those Gilts (for less than they paid) under the QT program recently announced. Also the (fixed) interest they receive on their Gilt holdings is now less than the ( variable) interest they pay on those credit balances with the selling Institutions. BoE now owes more to the vendors of those gilts than the current value of them. BoE has to be recompensed for these losses-by The Treasury. Why dont you do some reading on this and try understand it ? If you want me to set out the accounting transactions for you -PM me. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 16, 2023 7:24:13 GMT
Annual inflation falling to 6.8% welcome relief to consumers who are now getting poorer more slowly. Despite its sharp fall last month, the UK’s inflation rate remained higher than that of the US (3.2%) and the eurozone (5.3%) in July. I just tried to look at the details behind the headline CPIH rate. ONS have an online calculator which allows you to input your own spending on particular kinds of item and so get a personal estimate. They also have a report on how inflation has affected different kinds of households. Trouble is, the latest report seems to have been issued May this year analysing April 21 to March 22! A quick play with the calculator suggest food inflation still running at 15%. The ONS does analyse their figures somewhat at www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2023 . This mostly talks about CPI, CPIH and OOH. CPI without housing costs is higher than CPIH, but on the other hand OOH (owner occupier housing) costs by themselves are shown on a steadily rising trajectory since july 21 from about 1.5% to 5% now. Presumably thats going to continue rising as interest rates feed through and considering the damping factor of fixed rate terms? If housing costs are your problem, well they're still going up. Otherwise they note rises in hotel and air travel inflation.
So year to jul 2023:
Food 15% Restaurants and hotels 9.5% communication 9.5%
Alcohol and tobacco 9.2% Health 8.2%
Clothing 7% Household goods 6.5%
Housing 5% Education 3% Transport -2%
Their table doesnt mention energy, but the calculator suggests 4%.
R4 just asking treasury minister to name one single thing they have done which has caused inflation to fall. His answer was that there were lots of things they could have done which would have pushed inflation up, but they didnt.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 16, 2023 7:26:53 GMT
Annual inflation falling to 6.8% welcome relief to consumers who are now getting poorer more slowly. Despite its sharp fall last month, the UK’s inflation rate remained higher than that of the US (3.2%) and the eurozone (5.3%) in July. Strip out food and energy which vary anyway due to international volatility and the rate is still very high. The rise in energy prices caused most of the other rises as costs fed through. Food is highly energy input dependant, and thats the second highest rises in general after energy over the last couple fo years. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 16, 2023 7:29:50 GMT
So once again the people at the top of the income scale in Banking etc get the biggest increases But just as important, this is likely to end up as real terms rises for some but real terms losses for others. You cannot have a stable workforce structure if bottom end wages keep falling in real terms. Rather, thats a recipe for industrial strife or massive labour shortages. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2023 7:30:28 GMT
Why is rising pay not a good thing ? Because if the MPC considers that inflation going forward will be driven by pay rises, they will raise interest rates even more, producing a recession and even higher unemployment. The Labour market probably needs a bit of tightening provided its not mass unemployment. Perhaps higher pay rates might encourage employers to up productivity by investing in new equipment ? I agree that recession would be a bad outcome but BoE are supposed to be calibrating their inflation response to avoid it. They were of course, way behind the curve in the first place on this. Mortgage rates are coming down a bit actually-and there are millions in rented accomodation for whom a mortgage is a pipe dream. They need higher pay to make ends meet. Lets wait and see what happens to inflation in the coming months. BoE may get lucky -and the pay inflation may ease as the Labour market cools. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2023 7:41:41 GMT
"UK inflation has fallen to its weakest level since before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, pushed down by energy bills falling after the lower price cap took effect in July.
Figures out this morning from the Office for National Statistics reveal the rate of price growth fell to 6.8 per cent last month, the lowest reading since February 2022 and down from 7.9 per cent in the previous month."
Times
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2023 7:46:53 GMT
An interesting view of compulsory voting from Australia:-
"If you talk to politicians down under about compulsory voting, they’re convinced that making it a civic duty has discouraged political extremism and led to a more sensible centrist policy debate. The former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, of the conservative Liberal Party, put it to me like this: “Compulsory voting tends to bring politics into the centre because you don’t have to rile up your base to get them out to vote.”
Jay Weatherill, the ex-Labor premier of South Australia, said something similar: “In Australia, politicians that bring in US-style wedge tactics to appeal to their base tend to fail, because unlike in America where moderate voters stay home if they don’t like something, in Australia they have to cast their ballot, and they usually vote against hardliners.”
Certainly if you look at recent Australian elections, they’re fierce and no holds barred when it comes to political campaigning, but the policy debate is remarkably sensible. Labor doesn’t go in for soak the rich-type manifesto promises and, to take one striking example, hasn’t proposed to increase inheritance tax from its current rate of zero per cent. Meanwhile, the Liberals haven’t gone hard on immigration or refugees — and when they have veered from the centre ground, they’ve been punished.
Academic studies corroborate this view, suggesting that the more people who turn out to vote, the more centrist the outcome, because parties can’t simply pander to their hardcore supporters, who tend to be more ideological and less representative of the general population. But Australian politicos don’t just think that making citizens vote promotes moderation. They believe it makes for a healthier political system.
Alannah MacTiernan, a former senior Labor minister, called compulsory voting the “guy-rope” of Aussie democracy. “In terms of being a community,” she argued, “[the requirement to vote] sends a clear message that there are rights and responsibilities. You have an obligation as a member of society: we’re all in this thing, and you can’t be a bystander.” As MacTiernan sees it, if you have compulsory taxation, it’s logical to have compulsory voting — they’re two sides of the same Antipodean coin."
ROHAN SILVA
Compulsory voting would hobble extremists
Times
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2023 7:51:53 GMT
Really enjoyed reading this  "‘Fugitive’ Catalan separatist keeps Spain waiting on new government. Carles Puigdemont and his Junts party hold the balance of power in parliament but refuse to say who they will back to form coalition" Times Puigdemont fled to Belgium in 2017 |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 16, 2023 7:55:59 GMT
The Banks and insurance companies from whom it bought UK Government Bonds ( Gilts) "received" Reserves at the BoE in exchange-ie the BoE owes them £895 in total. Hmm. The purpose of asset purchase was to add liquidity to banks. ie take bonds off their hands which could not be sold in the open market, at face value, so as to avoid a collapse in bond prices on the market and huge realised losses. This must have provided the banks with actual funds they could spend or electronically transfer, otherwise it would have had no effect. If the banks didnt receive real spendable money (and money is traditionally just paper with funny writing on it), then what did they receive which allowed them to continue trading? Interest payable on these bonds was then paid to the Bof E, which at least for a while simply refunded it to the treasury. That kinda suggest genuine ownership had transferred, and again the commercial banks had received payment in real terms satisfatory to them. As best I understand it, the Bank of England created credit accounts for banks which they could draw funds from, electronically transfered to the banks. They created money the banks could spend. Is that correct? This money came from nowhere? Banks create money all the time by lending. This also isnt physical money you could pile up and count, but it is exchangeable tokens of value, money. Most of the money in the world is not actual exchangeable notes and coins.
No, I dont see why the bank needs to be recompensed. Its an accounting exercise on paper, nothing more. Sure, printing electronic money is no different to printing paper money, but all money is simply created tokens of one sort or another. Central banks really do get to create money from nothing, and benefit from spending it at face value. If they use it for a transaction which loses part of that money, well the real loss was just of funny money they created anyway. There is no reason the total sum of created funny money has to stay constant, and in fact it cannot, it has to be increased as the size of the economy increases.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2023 8:01:12 GMT
No, I dont see why the bank needs to be recompensed. Its an accounting exercise on paper, nothing more.
I should write to the Fed, BoE & ECB then. They'll explain it to you. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 16, 2023 8:05:55 GMT
Perhaps higher pay rates might encourage employers to up productivity by investing in new equipment ? They might, though the aim of the bank was to lower wages and therefore reduce the need to mechanise, while at the same time raising the cost of borrowing and therefore raising the cost of mechanisation. So designed to lower productivity? Surely what the bank is doing is copying the policy of the US which decided to raise interest rates. Failing to copy, and indeed overmatch the US, would mean funds being withdrawn from the Uk and shifting to the US. A run on the pound and pound denominated bonds. We did not raise interest rates to benefit the Uk economy so much as to rescue it from what the US forced upon us. However rents are likely still directly related to mortgage rates, because landlords will have debts to banks rather than the occupiers. In general there seems to be a squeeze pushing up rents because of a shortage of rental properties, due to other factors where landlords are getting out of the market. Things like raised taxation on renting property, talk of giving tenants more rights, requirements to upgrade properties. Simply the rationale that many people are using a rental property as a pension plan, which has to be realised once you retire, and Thatcher era landlords when this all started are now at retirement age. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 16, 2023 8:14:12 GMT
No, I dont see why the bank needs to be recompensed. Its an accounting exercise on paper, nothing more.
I should write to the Fed, BoE & ECB then. They'll explain it to you. I really do not see any difference between QE and literal printing of money. The notional difference back in 2008 was central banks said they were creating money from nothing as loans, which eventually they would recover and destroy again. But there is no imperative to actually destroy that created money. In fact, the system was going fine before central banks decided they needed to withdraw this funding, which destabilised the whole system and created inflation and interest rate rises. The empirical evidence suggests the accepted theories of how money works and as applied by these bankers, are simply wrong. The Thatcher era should have taught us high interest rates do not stop inflation, because they didnt. |
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Post by athena on Aug 16, 2023 8:14:45 GMT
An interesting view of compulsory voting from Australia: My partner is Australian and regards compulsory voting as a complete non-issue. There's an Aussie tradition of election day 'sausage sizzles' - you go and vote and get yourself what social media now dub a 'democracy sausage'. I'm interested in a potential benefit that your sources don't mention, namely that in the UK very few of the poorest and most marginalised people vote, so their needs are neglected by both Con and Lab governments. If voting were compulsory parties would be more motivated to appeal to them. Perhaps in turn they might feel they had more of a stake in society, creating a bit of a virtuous circle. |
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steve
Member
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Post by steve on Aug 16, 2023 8:17:34 GMT
Bankers decide to pay themselves more.
Bankers decide wage driven inflation requires higher interest rates.
Have I missed something?
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steve
Member
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Post by steve on Aug 16, 2023 8:49:58 GMT
"Really enjoyed reading this"
Why?
As a matter of fact I couldn't remotely imagine his Catalonia secessionist party supporting the PP led by Rajoy given that the reason he's a fugitive is because the government led by Rajoy made him one in the first place.
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