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Post by alec on Apr 28, 2023 7:59:29 GMT
mercian - "Could part of it be that people worked from home during lockdown and rather enjoyed it, so if ordered back to work magically fell ill with minor illness?" Yes, I'm sure there is an affect here, but I've seen no evidence that this is a major impact and many employees are still able to work from home/hybrid work anyway, so it seems unlikely. Against this, we have measurable impacts from covid, which we know is still circulating widely and making people sick.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Apr 28, 2023 8:03:51 GMT
Can you please provide a link showing that either Cooper or Starmer have clearly stated they will scrap the Rwanda scheme. yep I think the scheme creates a real dilemma for lab. The old scheme was to send boat people back to france. as we could do while members of the EU. It worked fine. What broke it was leaving the EU. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Apr 28, 2023 8:23:05 GMT
I now understand why Sunak has taken no action against the racist rhetoric of Braverman, he's in full agreement with it
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 28, 2023 8:24:50 GMT
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 28, 2023 8:26:20 GMT
Can you please provide a link showing that either Cooper or Starmer have clearly stated they will scrap the Rwanda scheme. yep I think the scheme creates a real dilemma for lab. The old scheme was to send boat people back to france. as we could do while members of the EU. It worked fine. What broke it was leaving the EU. The 'old scheme' clearly didn't work even when there was a returns scheme within Europe. The latest version of "The Dublin Regulation" (version 3) has collapsed. All the info has been provided multiple times but all means discover 'google' and look up the facts yourself. Rejoining EU (if that is what some people want) will not fix the immigration issue as: 1/ We had an issue even whilst a member of EU 2/ The issue is clearly not working within EU either. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Apr 28, 2023 8:26:48 GMT
The biggest problem with the illegal immigration Bill is not just that it won't work, but will have the opposite effect to what they want
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 28, 2023 8:29:09 GMT
Thank you. Starmer does have a track record for saying different things in different polities. So I look forward to seeing "LAB will scrap the Rwanda scheme" made clear by Cooper and Starmer every time they are interviewed and then also see it clearly stated in LAB's GE'24 manifesto as well. Shall I repost the polling on %s of people who 'support' the Rwanda scheme - folks can look that up themselves. |
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Post by moby on Apr 28, 2023 8:49:43 GMT
Can you please provide a link showing that either Cooper or Starmer have clearly stated they will scrap the Rwanda scheme. I'm very aware past efforts haven't worked, hence the need to try new things - like the Rwanda scheme. TBC if that works as a deterrent but if it doesn't then what 'new' approach would LAB (or anyone else) implement to 'Stop/reduce the boats'? Please don't suggest stuff like asking Macron for returns to France - we've tried that, he rightly said "non" as the returns scheme in EU has collapsed, again. By all means suggest some of the ideas of likes of Denmark or Italy. I wouldn't go as far as RUK's view, not yet at least. However, at some point it is likely they'll be a clash with ECHR and cases in the ECtHR - although that process will take some time (incomplete by GE'24 being my guess). I see steve already has but there are other sources:- www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-will-scrap-rwanda-policy-and-target-gangs-says-yvette-cooper-v2bkl5std (paywalled apologies) The Rwanda scheme is not a viable policy though anyway. It would only have capacity to deal with a few 100's of cases and that's before you examine the morality of it. Your point regarding it being a deterrent is not working either looking at the numbers that are still coming after the policy announcement? I think Macron would work better with an incoming Labour administration. There would be superior co-operation agreements to the ones we have and the rhetoric would calm down. More effective cooperation agreements with the EU and speeding up the assessment of cases through resourcing casework properly would be a more viable way to go. There would be no need for clashes with the ECHR. The temperature and rhetoric needs to be lowered. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Apr 28, 2023 9:03:17 GMT
This is based on an Uniform Swing Model. Putting the same numbers into Electoral Calculus gives Labour 406 seats and a majority of 162, so I'm not very impressed by the new owner of UKPR. To be fair, I picked the UKPR model more to make a point about FPTP not favouring Labour as much as some of its dinosaur tendency like to believe. The model showing the Conservatives on 194, but with largely non-urban areas staying blue looks pretty credible as a reflection of current polling. Yes, I understand that. I was just making the comment that UNS is not a reliable predictor of seat numbers in a GE. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Apr 28, 2023 9:12:18 GMT
The biggest problem with the illegal immigration Bill is not just that it won't work, but will have the opposite effect to what they want Those negative effects are by the by as far as they're concerned. The only purpose of all this is to energise older yobs in places like Brentwood or Chatham or Nuneaton into actually coming out to vote for them rather than staying at home. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Apr 28, 2023 9:16:37 GMT
News this morning talked about resumed air attacks on Ukrainian cities. ISW recently noted the arrival of a new consignment of drones in Russia, which coincided with resumed attacks. Not seen exactly what sort of devices are attacking, but Iran just obliged with more drones. Todays ISW have a strategy study which argues the US really has no choice but to seriously assist Ukraine. (and of course the rest of the west follows their lead). Basically setting out that the US is engaged in a conflict with Russia which it doesnt even have to fight itself, only supply enough weapons. But the outcome of this war will affect real US power in the future, so the US needs Ukraine to win. If Ukraine loses, then the war will simply have to be re-fought somewhere else as russia moves on, under conditions then worse for the US. That Russia is not going to give in short of actual military defeat. www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/reframing-us-policy-debate-%E2%80%98long-war%E2%80%99-ukraineNo one is supplying Ukraine with enough equipment and munitions. Including the UK. Sunak's policy is essentially to allow Russia to win, is that going to be a vote winner? |
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Post by leftieliberal on Apr 28, 2023 9:16:47 GMT
Labour (Labfur?) have held the Swansea local by election. LibDems got over 30% from nowhere which obviously hit the Labour and Tory percentage. Baker, Mair (Lab) - 485 - 53.5% (-25.7%) Burton, Dan (LibDem) - 274 - 30.2% (+30.2%) Davies, Craig (Green) - 42 - 4.6% (+4.6%) Griffths-Warlow, Ioan Macsen (Plaid) - 34 - 3.8% (+3.8%) Harry, Jake (Con) - 71 - 7.8% (-14%) The Welsh spelling of Labour is Llafur, but then you already knew that, didn't you. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Apr 28, 2023 9:21:12 GMT
It has taken time, but Richard Sharp has resigned: www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-6533849010:15 AM We're looking at the Commissioner for Public Appointments' report in full now, which has found two non-disclosures by Richard Sharp during the application process for his BBC chairman role breached the governance code for public appointments.
Adam Heppinstall KC says Sharp failed to disclose two "potential perceived conflicts of interest" to the panel that interviewed him.
1) Sharp informed then Prime Minister Boris Johnson that he "wished to apply to be chair of the BBC board, before he made his application in November 2020".
2) Sharp informing Johnson, before he was interviewed, that he was going to to make the introduction between Sam Blyth and the Cabinet Secretary Simon Case so that he might "assist the former prime minister with his personal finances". |
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Post by hireton on Apr 28, 2023 9:22:39 GMT
How not to handle the media for a PM visit to Scotland:
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 28, 2023 9:25:58 GMT
Can you please provide a link showing that either Cooper or Starmer have clearly stated they will scrap the Rwanda scheme. I'm very aware past efforts haven't worked, hence the need to try new things - like the Rwanda scheme. TBC if that works as a deterrent but if it doesn't then what 'new' approach would LAB (or anyone else) implement to 'Stop/reduce the boats'? Please don't suggest stuff like asking Macron for returns to France - we've tried that, he rightly said "non" as the returns scheme in EU has collapsed, again. By all means suggest some of the ideas of likes of Denmark or Italy. I wouldn't go as far as RUK's view, not yet at least. However, at some point it is likely they'll be a clash with ECHR and cases in the ECtHR - although that process will take some time (incomplete by GE'24 being my guess). I see steve already has but there are other sources:- www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-will-scrap-rwanda-policy-and-target-gangs-says-yvette-cooper-v2bkl5std (paywalled apologies) The Rwanda scheme is not a viable policy though anyway. It would only have capacity to deal with a few 100's of cases and that's before you examine the morality of it. Your point regarding it being a deterrent is not working either looking at the numbers that are still coming after the policy announcement? I think Macron would work better with an incoming Labour administration. There would be superior co-operation agreements to the ones we have and the rhetoric would calm down. More effective cooperation agreements with the EU and speeding up the assessment of cases through resourcing casework properly would be a more viable way to go. There would be no need for clashes with the ECHR. The temperature and rhetoric needs to be lowered. I don't have a crystal ball but happy to agree on "not yet" and plenty of polling that shows expectations are low. I can explain the 'trap' that Starmer-LAB are walking into once again if you like and of course Starmer can't "pretend" Macron will agree to a returns policy UK->France even though the Dublin III agreement has collapsed so that there is no France->Italy (noting the 'first' entry into Europe is rarely France) Starmer can of course "evolve" his policy if/when flights to Rwanda start up but I'll repost the polling from Oct'22 Support: 42% Oppose: 37% Obviously a significant partisan split. CON 73% (net 58%) support; LAB 65% (net 44%) oppose. yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2022/10/31/3c056/2It is 'high risk' for CON as well. Timing the ECtHR cases to hit the 'sweetspot' over GE'24 is going to be tricky given how far away that is but for those who want to see the Illegal Immigration issue sorted then RUK have a policy to not waste more time and simply leave ECHR now. WRT to "speeding up cases" then that also needs changes to the law - to prevent the "lefty" ("do bad") lawyers who use the ECtHR to block deportations, even of known criminals. LAB tried to use an amendment with slightly different wording rather than simply abstain/vote with CON as Starmer can't be seen to back CON's 'Illegal Immigration Bill' but the 'trap' just gets bigger and into GE'24 then we'll see what Copper/Starmer are saying about Rwanda. Do they want to win CON'19 votes or remove a 'deterrent' scheme that will likely be running by GE'24 (although probably with some outstanding legal challenges in ECtHR)? TBC as they say. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 28, 2023 9:37:59 GMT
To all, I understand that a comment of mine from a couple of days ago caused a bit of a kerfuffle. I have been asked to err on the side of caution, so here goes - I apologise if the term I used for the 'travelling community' caused offence to anyone.To me it is on a par with the vernacular terms for Londoner, or someone from Newcastle or Liverpool or Australia for instance. I not specifying what those are because although I believe they are in common use and not pejorative I suppose I might be out of touch on that too. It does get difficult to keep up. It reminds me of a story I've told before about when I was in the NHS and asked to point out a particular person. I said "She's the one who usually wears a green dress". The chap I was speaking to looked blank, and I went through contortions describing her height, approximate age and so on - everything but her complexion because I was trying to be PC. Eventually he got who I meant and said "Oh! You mean the bl*ck girl!" NB I'm using the asterisk because though it appears that it was ok to say that at the time, about 10 years ago, I don't know if it's changed again. It would be helpful if the Guardian would publish a list of this week's euphemisms. Whilst the word you used was, in itself, offensive I believe it was the stereotyping of such individuals based on no evidence but local gossip, and typical innuendo about that community that was a greater cause of offence. I say this in the hope that it helps bring a level of understanding. I imagine most people would object to being categorised by a negative stereotype which only foundation is rumours or gossip. I expect mercian has read Mark 's post on the matter (ie the issue was both the 'word' and the 'stereotyping') and IMO we should note that mercian has apologised. If anyone else wants to apologise for any personal attacks they have made (eg calling another poster a 'twat') then they can of course do so. I've been asked not to encourage people to state if they have had sanctions applied to them but I think everyone deserves a 2nd/3rd/4th.. chance to wipe the slate clean on any personal vendettas they might still hold and apologise for any transgressions they have made - some of which are on first few pages of this new thread. I have apologised in the past for petty squabbling (mostly on UKPR) and will do so once again. Hopefully we can all move on and treat each other and groups within the UK-World with more respect going forward.
"Let he who is without sin.." |
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 28, 2023 9:44:17 GMT
neilj The Brothers of Italy and the Leaga have moved slightly from their fascist past but still remain at the extreme of European policies. "Leaders of both parties are indeed not radically rejecting democracy in a fascist-authoritarian tradition and instead promote a form of ‘ethnocracy’ based on a sovereigntist ideology. This nevertheless needs to be seen as a radical reinterpretation of democracy with strong authoritarian and illiberal elements, which deviates in important ways from centre-right conservatism as we knew it in post-war European democracies, such as Christian Democrats in Italy and Germany, and Gaullism in France." So Sunak is probably correct the far right Italian regime is similar to the shambolic corrupt regime which he currently fronts but arguably heading in the direction away from fascism rather than towards it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2023 9:49:58 GMT
. If anyone else wants to apologise for any personal attacks they have made (eg calling another poster a 'twat') then they can of course do so.    Are you out of your mind ? |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Apr 28, 2023 9:51:45 GMT
. If anyone else wants to apologise for any personal attacks they have made (eg calling another poster a 'twat') then they can of course do so. Are you out of your mind ? I think we all know the answer to that. |
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Post by jib on Apr 28, 2023 9:52:34 GMT
Labour (Labfur?) have held the Swansea local by election. LibDems got over 30% from nowhere which obviously hit the Labour and Tory percentage. Baker, Mair (Lab) - 485 - 53.5% (-25.7%) Burton, Dan (LibDem) - 274 - 30.2% (+30.2%) Davies, Craig (Green) - 42 - 4.6% (+4.6%) Griffths-Warlow, Ioan Macsen (Plaid) - 34 - 3.8% (+3.8%) Harry, Jake (Con) - 71 - 7.8% (-14%) The Welsh spelling of Labour is Llafur, but then you already knew that, didn't you. He does have Rishi Sunak for company here.  |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2023 9:55:18 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 28, 2023 9:56:23 GMT
With the latest political nepotism at the Brexit broadcasting corporation now exposed it might be a worth looking at the Spaffer in the works.
Apparently Richard Sharp introduced Sam Blyth to Spaffer who was guarantor of the credit facility of up to £800,000 that helped fund Spaffer's excessive life style.
Fair enough you might think if you don't have chums who can offer a chap a small bung then other chums probably do.
The problem is that Sam Blyth is actually Spaffer's cousin so you have to question the nature of this introduction.
I used to enjoy Sharp(e) on the tv the entire box set is now available on itx for free incidentally.
But I must have missed " Sharp 's Bung ,when our hero was given command of a public service broadcaster he was totally unfit to run , in return for hundreds of thousands in gifts to the Tory party and his role as the ex boss of the current PM.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Apr 28, 2023 10:01:51 GMT
The resignation of Sharp as chairman of the BBC leaves two, perhaps more important, questions remain unanswered: A. Why did Johnson's cousin, Sam Blyth, make it to the recommeded shortlist to become Chief Executive of the British Council B. And which bank and person provided the £800,000 loan (Blyth only acted as guarantor). , well Johnson's regime was so blatantly corrupt on so many levels, I'm sure there is still a lot to come out.
The key question for me is the selection process and ultimate successor for Sharp - it will show if the rot is still spreading and fatal or if Sunak's regime does mark more of a return to 'acceptable' norms. My money is on the former - but would love to be proved wrong. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 28, 2023 10:04:39 GMT
Are you out of your mind ? I think we all know the answer to that. Colin + Domjg. There does seem to be an issue on UKPR2 with people thinking they speak for everyone. We'll see. All I can do is give people the opportunity, the decision is then for the individual to decide. The main point I was making being that mercian has apologised for a post of his on the LAST thread, which IMO should be respected. Whilst more of a 'convention' than a rule. Then "what happens on the last thread, stays on the last thread"* used to apply back on the Ol' UKPR and IMO that is a good convention to use. Some spillover (eg mercian's apology) is to be expected but petty squabbles should have been laid to rest years ago. Hopefully in the spirit of 'Entente' we can all move on and discuss polling and other issues in a more polite and constructive manner - without using insults. * Which is the reason why periodically it is good to start a new thread. IIRC there was general agreement that no more than once per month, maybe bit longer if were in 'polldrums' but anynody can start a new thread if/when the current one descends into the gutter - although hopefully we can all improve our behaviour and keep our discussions out of the gutter (setting an example for our politicians - rumour has it some of them follow UKPR2  ) |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 28, 2023 10:08:07 GMT
The resignation of Sharp as chairman of the BBC leaves two, perhaps more important, questions remain unanswered: A. Why did Johnson's cousin, Sam Blyth, make it to the recommeded shortlist to become Chief Executive of the British Council B. And which bank and person provided the £800,000 loan (Blyth only acted as guarantor). , well Johnson's regime was so blatantly corrupt on so many levels, I'm sure there is still a lot to come out.
The key question for me is the selection process and ultimate successor for Sharp - it will show if the rot is still spreading and fatal or if Sunak's regime does mark more of a return to 'acceptable' norms. My money is on the former - but would love to be proved wrong.Just a guess but Rishi might copy LAB's policy for the BBC? LAB is not my party but if someone can post LAB's policy for BBC info then 'ta muchly' "Imitation is the Sincerest Form of Flattery" (aka 'no copyright on good ideas') |
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Post by moby on Apr 28, 2023 10:32:46 GMT
I see steve already has but there are other sources:- www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-will-scrap-rwanda-policy-and-target-gangs-says-yvette-cooper-v2bkl5std (paywalled apologies) The Rwanda scheme is not a viable policy though anyway. It would only have capacity to deal with a few 100's of cases and that's before you examine the morality of it. Your point regarding it being a deterrent is not working either looking at the numbers that are still coming after the policy announcement? I think Macron would work better with an incoming Labour administration. There would be superior co-operation agreements to the ones we have and the rhetoric would calm down. More effective cooperation agreements with the EU and speeding up the assessment of cases through resourcing casework properly would be a more viable way to go. There would be no need for clashes with the ECHR. The temperature and rhetoric needs to be lowered. I don't have a crystal ball but happy to agree on "not yet" and plenty of polling that shows expectations are low. I can explain the 'trap' that Starmer-LAB are walking into once again if you like and of course Starmer can't "pretend" Macron will agree to a returns policy UK->France even though the Dublin III agreement has collapsed so that there is no France->Italy (noting the 'first' entry into Europe is rarely France) Starmer can of course "evolve" his policy if/when flights to Rwanda start up but I'll repost the polling from Oct'22 Support: 42% Oppose: 37% Obviously a significant partisan split. CON 73% (net 58%) support; LAB 65% (net 44%) oppose. yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2022/10/31/3c056/2It is 'high risk' for CON as well. Timing the ECtHR cases to hit the 'sweetspot' over GE'24 is going to be tricky given how far away that is but for those who want to see the Illegal Immigration issue sorted then RUK have a policy to not waste more time and simply leave ECHR now. WRT to "speeding up cases" then that also needs changes to the law - to prevent the "lefty" ("do bad") lawyers who use the ECtHR to block deportations, even of known criminals. LAB tried to use an amendment with slightly different wording rather than simply abstain/vote with CON as Starmer can't be seen to back CON's 'Illegal Immigration Bill' but the 'trap' just gets bigger and into GE'24 then we'll see what Copper/Starmer are saying about Rwanda. Do they want to win CON'19 votes or remove a 'deterrent' scheme that will likely be running by GE'24 (although probably with some outstanding legal challenges in ECtHR)? TBC as they say. Yes expectations are low after what we've seen in recent years. It's also an issue with limited reach given that we are under far less pressure from this issue than the rest of Europe:- www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/nhs-suella-braverman-government-prime-minister-ipsos-b2298580.htmlA change of tone and 'mood music' will help imo but I agree we'll see! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2023 10:34:21 GMT
Colin + Domjg. There does seem to be an issue on UKPR2 with people thinking they speak for everyone. You need to Have qualified for Moral High Ground to do that. Only a very few of us have . |
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Post by shevii on Apr 28, 2023 10:36:39 GMT
Britain Elects
@britainelects
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41m
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 41% (-2)
CON: 27% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 7% (+1)
REF: 7% (-)
via
@yougov
, 26 - 27 Apr
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Post by shevii on Apr 28, 2023 10:40:52 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Apr 28, 2023 11:06:09 GMT
It has taken time, but Richard Sharp has resigned Some pundit said it was important that the chairman of the BBC can demonstrate his independence from government. There is absolutely no point having a placeman in some job if that person cannot credibly pretend he isnt your placeman. This incident has shown he obviously isnt independent, so now someone else will have to be found who has a clear public image of independence. Then the new person can effectively act to ensure the BBC does government bidding. |
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