24-April 2023 : LAB 44% / CON 29% / LDEM 11% / GRN 5%

[neilj]

colin

Saw Hague's article, thought some of it was a mixture of cherry picking and wishful thinking
For example he said he had an 8% lead in the Locals and lost the next General Election
But he was also 13% behind Labour in hhe national polls, not 15% ahead as Labour is now
What it showed me is that local elections are not very effective in predicting General election results, opinion polls are better

[shevii]

May 9, 2023 8:29:30 GMT crossbat11 said:

My thought for the day as I wait for Mrs H to decide on her walking attire for the day. This process started an hour ago and is still ongoing! Craster to Alnmouth today and the weather is glorious.

The thought? The danger of allowing small percentage point poll shifts to appear easily achieved and relatively small beer. For example, when we blithely say that the Tories may recover to 35% VI from their current position in the late 20s, that figure of 5 or 6 points sounds reasonable. Nothing much but, when translated to people and votes, we're then into the millions. That is some shift in voting intention. It's a colossal shift in fact.

So, when we look at polls and percentage VI, it's worth reflecting on what really needs to happen to save the Tories between now and polling day. Millions of people to shift from where they've been for 12 months or more now. A structural and long lasting opinion shift to totally unravel.

What appears on the political horizon to make that likely? I can't see anything.

At the last comparable election for things being a bit normal and not brexit related the Tories did put on 5 points in their last 18 months (presumably millions of voters).  Currently you'd say they were 28/29 points on average so it's not out of the question to hit close to 35%, especially as the first bit is not actually converting anyone but just getting back the don't knows and some Reform.

Corbyn himself put on 3.5m voters in 2 years in 2017 but additionally that was from a lower opinion poll base right up until the election was called (25% to 41%), so that's probably nearer to 5m based on the opinion polls when the election was called.

I'd agree that given all the circumstances (including the Local Elections results and ABT analysis) it seems unlikely the Tories aren't dead and buried and most notably the fact that upwards of 10% of their 2019 voters have switched to Labour.  Additionally a lot of Tory votes in the marginal seats in the towns came from one time "get brexit done" voters so if they are now in the Labour column again it's less likely they come out of the Labour column, but it's not necessarily millions of voters changing their minds as the churn and the don't knows/will not vote will account for much of any change that takes place.

[alec]

steve - "The data you reference doesn't measure the current rates."

And the data you reference doesn't cover the real rates.

It's now beyond any doubt at all that covid deaths are being widely undercounted, largely due to the long term mortality effects. Covid has been proven to rapidly accelerate cancer and dementia, with increasingly strong developing evidence that it is a causal factor in the genesis of these conditions also. It is associated with a very significant rise in deaths from cardiovascular conditions, with these increases proportionately greater in younger people. Covid is known to create a range of immune system dysregulations which have been linked to substantially worsened symptoms of multiple other conditions, with notably high rates of mortality from conditions like 'flu in the months after covid infection. None of these deaths are included in the official covid deaths figures, but the statistical correlations, biomarkers, clinical case studies and large scale cohort studies are all saying the same thing.


So yes, it is highly likely that covid remains a global top five cause of death. You need to appreciate that the central aspect of 'living with covid' adopted by many governments is to remove public access to data. It's easy to pretend something is over if you can't count it.

[jimjam]

Shevii, Personally I think 35% is unlikely but early 30s likely and 33% possible.

What would Labour need to achieve to get an OM with Tories on 32% for example?

UNS not that accurate and will it be 7 or 15 gains in Scotland?

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 8, 2023 22:23:13 GMT alurqa said:

May 8, 2023 21:13:57 GMT mercian said:

There would have to be years of negotiations to see whether and on what terms the EU might be prepared to let the UK back in before there would be any point in legislation.

Why? The lengthy accession process is to align an applicant's economy. Ours is already aligned. Of course until our pathetic political system is sorted out they would refuse membership. But the end result may be an association treaty, a bit like EFTA's EEA. Because our economy is much bigger than any other EFTA member it would be a special one-of-a-kind (sui generis). We could get that relatively quickly without rejoining the political club. Accepting full Schengen membership would be a big step to integrating our economy back into the Single Market and Customs Union, and help to repair some of the damage that's been self inflicted on our economy.

Of course that would not fix everything. It will take years to repair the damage. All those SMEs that have gone under, and those larger businesses that have been forced to restructure in favour of the EU. But it would help to stop the rot. But until there is stabilty of our political system I can't see that happening. The longer we keep ourselves shut out of the Single Market the more damage is done to our economy and the more pressing will be the need to respond. Big business is dismayed, but can do nothing other than get on with moving or restructuring their operations to minimise the damage, while they wait for the children to sort out the politics.

It's our shit. We caused it. We must now lie in it. Or, to put it another way: own it.

we are supposed to be joining CPTPP though Al, which is reputedly not very compatible with our having a customs Union with the EU. (It’s possible there might be some kind of deal in the future between EU and CPTPP though)

[patrickbrian]

Colin

"the "looming nightmare of Labour becoming the largest party but without a majority"."

i've seen this argument a few times now, but it doesn't make much sense to me. it seems to imply that - from a Tory perspective - a minority labour government would be even more of a disaster for the country (a "nightmare") than a majority. And that, however disastrous the present government may be, a minority Lab govt would be even worse. So vote Tory for more of the same! But then, why not vote Labour if they look like being the largest party anyway? Okay it worked before against Milliband, but those were different times and now it all feels rather desperate.

[Mr Poppy]

May 9, 2023 9:45:10 GMT jimjam said:

1. Shevii, Personally I think 35% is unlikely but early 30s likely and 33% possible.

What would Labour need to achieve to get an OM with Tories on 32% for example?

UNS not that accurate and will it be 7 or 15 gains in Scotland?

1. we've gone through how CON VI can get to 35%+ before. A combination of seeing the DK differential disappear (worth 3%ish) and then either some CON'19->RUK VI "coming home" or some of the defections to LAB/LDEM "coming home". To achieve that then Rishi needs to deliver on his 5 priorities (which are similar to Starmer's 5 missions). Polling shows folks have quite low expectations so IMO the risk is to the upside in the next 18mths.

2. LAB would likely win a comfortable OM if CON get 32% in GE'24 as either:

A/ LAB might be 45%+
B/ LAB might be lower but LAB+LDEM+Green >=55%+ and there is significant ABCON tactical voting (the higher the combined %, the less tactical voting needed)
(C/ RUK split the RoC vote sufficiently that the %s in A/ or B/ could be lower)

Obviously Scotland might come into play if the result is close but if there is a significant ABSNP vote then SCON will likely also gain some seats in Scotland. 

Folks can play around with % on EC's prediction model* if they like. It's all hypothetical of course. 18mths is a long time in politics. 
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

* Which IMO slightly understates LDEM seats (by 5-10) and overstates LAB seats (by 10-20). I posted several "plausible scenarios" y'day based on "one poll caveat" of R&W latest and posted two other prediction models (one of which overstated LDEM IMO and the other one that I reckon is pretty close if there is minimal additional tactical voting).

[graham]

We are now probably 16 months from Dissolution with a GE some five weeks later.It may be worth recalling that the period from Dissolution to Polling Day - ie the official election campaign - tends to favour the Opposition. That was true of the GEs of 1959 - 1964 - 1966 - 1970 - the 1974 elections - 1987 - 2001 - 2010 - 2017. The 1979 election was an exception - likely to be explained by the Tory lead having exploded in Jan/Feb that year during the Winter of Discontent - a bit like the jump in Labour's lead in Sept/Oct 2022. The Callaghan govt. was likely to recover somewhat from that fiasco - and that did happen. The 1983 GE did see Government support fall during the campaign , but Labour's vote fell by even more - both to the advantage of the Alliance in the latter part of the campaign. Both the 1992 and 2015 elections saw major methodological issues with the result that the pollsters were effectively wide of the mark throughout those campaigns. 1997 was a bit like 1979 in reverse in that the Labour lead was so big that some Tory recovery was likely.
This probably means that 'swingback' to the Government really has to occur over the next 16 months sufficient to offset a likely swing to the Opposition during the official campaigning period leading up to Polling Day.

[Mr Poppy]

May 9, 2023 10:12:18 GMT patrickbrian said:

Colin

"the "looming nightmare of Labour becoming the largest party but without a majority"."

i've seen this argument a few times now, but it doesn't make much sense to me. it seems to imply that - from a Tory perspective - a minority labour government would be even more of a disaster for the country (a "nightmare") than a majority. And that, however disastrous the present government may be, a minority Lab govt would be even worse. So vote Tory for more of the same! But then, why not vote Labour if they look like being the largest party anyway? Okay it worked before against Milliband, but those were different times and now it all feels rather desperate.

"looming nightmare" is poetic license but looking at the practicalities then:

LAB propped up by LDEM = an obsession with PR voting reform and as we've seen on UKPR and UKPR2 then even those that want voting reform can't agree on what change they want (and please, lets not go through all that again - maybe those that want PR can argue the merits of different approaches on an Issue Specific thread as it's not an "Important Issues" for vast majority of people and I note that Red-Tory Starmer is "long opposed" to it)

LAB propped up by SNP = an obsession with Indy Scotland (although Starmer could and should "call their bluff", I doubt he will)

LAB propped up by both = two different obsessions, noting LDEM are BNATs.  

Now Starmer might well decide to appease no other party and run a minority govt on a vote-vote basis but he'll need to win a King's Speech to kick CON out and then ensure he has a highly effective LAB whip and pleases enough other MPs for each vote. CON will almost certainly vote against everything so Starmer will struggle to get much done. Then at some point they'll likely be another GE and folks can decide if they want a single party govt (and might well be that LAB then achieve an OM, similar to GE'19 solving the mess of GE'17 for CON)

However, since it appears Starmer doesn't want to get much done anyway then perhaps obsessing about PR or Indy will be a handy excuse for LAB to be continuity Tory. Starmer can also blame LDEM (and/or SNP) for any "unpopular" policies (as per CON when LDEM were CON's doormat between 2010-15)

[graham]

May 9, 2023 9:45:10 GMT jimjam said:

Shevii, Personally I think 35% is unlikely but early 30s likely and 33% possible.

What would Labour need to achieve to get an OM with Tories on 32% for example?

UNS not that accurate and will it be 7 or 15 gains in Scotland?

Maybe 20 - 25 Labour gains in Scotland.

[shevii]

May 9, 2023 9:45:10 GMT jimjam said:

Shevii, Personally I think 35% is unlikely but early 30s likely and 33% possible.

What would Labour need to achieve to get an OM with Tories on 32% for example?

UNS not that accurate and will it be 7 or 15 gains in Scotland?

Agreed and I'd also add in that a lot of the marginal red walls that flipped Tory to get brexit done and made the Tory majority in 2019 look exceptionally high on the vote shares may work against the Tories next time.  Scotland- no idea at this stage.

[James E]

May 9, 2023 9:45:10 GMT jimjam said:

Shevii, Personally I think 35% is unlikely but early 30s likely and 33% possible.

What would Labour need to achieve to get an OM with Tories on 32% for example?

UNS not that accurate and will it be 7 or 15 gains in Scotland?

Using Electoral Calculus , I have tried figures of Con 33, Lab 36, LD 16, Ref 4, Grn 6. I have added in tactical voting of half of each party's voters.

This produces an 18-seat Labour majority on a 3 point lead (and a 7% overall swing). Labour would be 103 seats ahead of the Tories in this scenario, whereas UNS would put the two main parties close to level in seats. I think EC is somewhat generous to Lab in Scotland at the moment, as it shows 20 SNP losses, presumably to Lab. 

While EC clearly has its faults, it looks to me far closer to the likely outcome than the UNS used by Polling Reports or Sky News's recent forecast of a hung parliament. The effectiveness of tactical or 'ABT' voting is reduced somewhat as the Con vote rises, so it is not possible to give a firm figure for the kind of lead Lab need for an OM. My best guess, based on a Tory VI close to 35% would be around 4-5 points. 

[steve]

alec
I'm not participating in your battle of Hastings with Danny.
You asked for data, I provided the most recent I could find and your reply was not that data.
I didn't produce it mate if it doesn't fit in with your assumptions don't blame the messenger.

[Deleted]

May 9, 2023 10:12:18 GMT patrickbrian said:

Colin

"the "looming nightmare of Labour becoming the largest party but without a majority"."

i've seen this argument a few times now, but it doesn't make much sense to me. it seems to imply that - from a Tory perspective - a minority labour government would be even more of a disaster for the country (a "nightmare") than a majority. And that, however disastrous the present government may be, a minority Lab govt would be even worse. So vote Tory for more of the same! But then, why not vote Labour if they look like being the largest party anyway? Okay it worked before against Milliband, but those were different times and now it all feels rather desperate.

Can't improve on Mr Poppy response to you really.

It wouldn't make sense to you-you are a Labour supporter. Hague is saying that Cons will highlight the prospect and that voters will find it concerning.

I agree with you that time moves on , and this isn't a Milliband re-run.

For me the most pertinent thing WH highlighted was the spread of anti-Tory vote on May 5th. LD/Green being as significant a destination for it as Starmer's Labour. Its slim pickings for Sunak though and hard to see how he hauls it back.

Even Hague's optimism is based on a not very convincing call to work faster . I hardly think Sunak could. It is the one thing he gets credit for. And it is where he retreats to when responding to the L results-working through his "people's priorities". 

Is the national projection from the English LA election result  a vote  :-
* against Johnson & Truss's PM ships. ?
* against  Sunak's performance as PM ?
* against Conservative Government ? ( aka Time for a Change)
* for a  Starmer lead government . ?

Most analysts seem to discount the last one. Which leaves Sunak with a slim chance if its number one.  
  

[patrickbrian]

Colin

Why do you suppose I'm a Labour supporter? At the moment I don't support any party, though I do want a change. I actually didn't think the Cameron /Clegg govt was that bad. I didn't like everything, but it functioned. I don't see that at present, and am a bit surprised that the quite able Sunak even wants to go on leading it. It looks from the Locals as if quite big chunks of the electorate have come to the same conclusion....

I don't think we disagree much on this really!

[steve]

"Speaking at the 78th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany, the Russian president drew historical parallels between the second world war and fighting in Ukraine"

There are indeed a crazed dictator invaded his democratic neighbours then as well.

[Mr Poppy]

May 9, 2023 11:03:36 GMT colin said:

May 9, 2023 10:12:18 GMT patrickbrian said:

...
Is the national projection from the English LA election result  a vote  :-
* against Johnson & Truss's PM ships. ?
* against  Sunak's performance as PM ?
* against Conservative Government ? ( aka Time for a Change)
* for a  Starmer lead government . ?

Most analysts seem to discount the last one. Which leaves Sunak with a slim chance if its number one.  
  

The first three points (all versions of a "protest vote") were likely factors but I'll add another one - NIMBYism.

As LEs then local issues should be the main reason for how people vote and there are certainly people who vote X in LEs and Y in GEs. Green/Orange-NIMBY voting has already been covered and jimjam stated it was potentially a factor even in the North. 

WRT to Johnson then the privilege's committee stuff needs to run its course but IF Boris gets off with just a slapped wrist and offers a full apology then could Rishi find a role for Boris? The Boris fans club hasn't seized on the >1,000 loses number but there have been a few comments in CON circles that Boris still has some "Heineken" value (notably in the North-Midlands amongst 'first time' CON voters who might go back to LAB or abstain in GE'24).

IIRC a wise person once said Boris should be Chairman and Rishi be CEO. How about Boris becomes quite literally CON's Chairman (assuming he only gets a slapped wrist)?

NB Absolutely not a prediction and I'm "eyes wide open" to the risks of even letting Boris have the "cheerleader" (schmoozing donors) role but I can see some merit in "Bring Boris Back" inside the tent - with a very limited and specific role that is nowhere near policy decision making. It would make quite the contrast to Starmer and how Sir Keith Stalin has handled Corbyn+co. It might well help Rishi if Boris openly says he supports Rishi and then Boris's little fan club can turn their guns onto Starmer-LAB. Anyone in gen.pub who is still holding a grudge against Rishi for being instrumental in "Get Boris Gone" can forgive Rishi and "come home" to CON in VI.

The "case against" Boris even having just a limited role is that he might put off some CON'19 who might otherwise come back as Rishi fixes the "brand damage" and might encourage more people to vote (tactically in some cases) ABCON in GE'24.

So I'm undecided on "Bring Boris Back". I can see some benefits, some risks. Subject to the huge IF then only Rishi can decide if the risk/reward is worth it and only then provided Boris understands his limited role. 

[Deleted]

May 9, 2023 11:20:04 GMT patrickbrian said:

Colin

Why do you suppose I'm a Labour supporter? At the moment I don't support any party, though I do want a change. I actually didn't think the Cameron /Clegg govt was that bad. I didn't like everything, but it functioned. I don't see that at present, and am a bit surprised that the quite able Sunak even wants to go on leading it. It looks from the Locals as if quite big chunks of the electorate have come to the same conclusion....

I don't think we disagree much on this really!

My apologies. I'm not very good at remembering who supports what on UKPR2. Apart from the frequent posters that is.

I agree with you about Sunak.

[Deleted]

May 9, 2023 11:56:58 GMT Mr Poppy said:

May 9, 2023 11:03:36 GMT colin said:

...
Is the national projection from the English LA election result  a vote  :-
* against Johnson & Truss's PM ships. ?
* against  Sunak's performance as PM ?
* against Conservative Government ? ( aka Time for a Change)
* for a  Starmer lead government . ?

Most analysts seem to discount the last one. Which leaves Sunak with a slim chance if its number one.  
  

The first three points (all versions of a "protest vote") were likely factors but I'll add another one - NIMBYism.

As LEs then local issues should be the main reason for how people vote and there are certainly people who vote X in LEs and Y in GEs. Green/Orange-NIMBY voting has already been covered and jimjam stated it was potentially a factor even in the North. 

WRT to Johnson then the privilege's committee stuff needs to run its course but IF Boris gets off with just a slapped wrist and offers a full apology then could Rishi find a role for Boris? The Boris fans club hasn't seized on the >1,000 loses number but there have been a few comments in CON circles that Boris still has some "Heineken" value (notably in the North-Midlands amongst 'first time' CON voters who might go back to LAB or abstain in GE'24).

IIRC a wise person once said Boris should be Chairman and Rishi be CEO. How about Boris becomes quite literally CON's Chairman (assuming he only gets a slapped wrist)?

NB Absolutely not a prediction and I'm "eyes wide open" to the risks of even letting Boris have the "cheerleader" (schmoozing donors) role but I can see some merit in "Bring Boris Back" inside the tent - with a very limited and specific role that is nowhere near policy decision making. It would make quite the contrast to Starmer and how Sir Keith Stalin has handled Corbyn+co. It might well help Rishi if Boris openly says he supports Rishi and then Boris's little fan club can turn their guns onto Starmer-LAB. Anyone in gen.pub who is still holding a grudge against Rishi for being instrumental in "Get Boris Gone" can forgive Rishi and "come home" to CON in VI.

The "case against" Boris even having just a limited role is that he might put off some CON'19 who might otherwise come back as Rishi fixes the "brand damage" and might encourage more people to vote (tactically in some cases) ABCON in GE'24.

So I'm undecided on "Bring Boris Back". I can see some benefits, some risks. Subject to the huge IF then only Rishi can decide if the risk/reward is worth it and only then provided Boris understands his limited role. 

I get the temptation on Boris. But honestly_I think it would be a disaster. He wouldn't stick to a subordinate brief having been PM.

Sunak would be out of his mind to do it imo.

[Mr Poppy]

Teacher marking their own homework but YG's view on their own LE predictions:

"YouGov MRP successfully tells the story of the 2023 local elections"
yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/05/09/yougov-mrp-successfully-tells-story-2023-local-ele

[Mr Poppy]

May 9, 2023 12:09:36 GMT colin said:

May 9, 2023 11:56:58 GMT Mr Poppy said:

...

I get the temptation on Boris. But honestly_I think it would be a disaster. He wouldn't stick to a subordinate brief having been PM.

Sunak would be out of his mind to do it imo.

I take your point and value your opinion. Every dog has its day but it is best to let some sleeping dogs lie perhaps - certainly for a while longer at least? 

Having been bitten more than once by Boris then thousandth time shy 

See how things go. First up Boris has to get off with nothing more than a slapped wrist, then "atone" for a while but leading up to GE'24 then IF CON are still quite far behind in the polls and since Boris is probably going to lose his seat in GE'24 anyway... then... BUT ONLY then consider 'Bring Boris Back' as "cheerleader and chief schmoozer"?? Desperate times might call for desperate measures and Boris is a "Hail Mary" option.

"It's not the taking part - it is the winning that counts"

If Rishi is still quite far behind in the polls by early Summer'24 then the suicidal factions might start fighting in the sack again. Hence get the ringleaders with "next leader" aspirations inside the tent and possibly see off any rebellion?

Probably about 12mths too early to even consider discussing the above but I'm a bit bored so thought would mention it. 

[patrickbrian]

Trevor

Johnson is toxic with the British public now. The "good-old- Boris" days are gone forever. Are dyed-in-the-wool Tories the last who can see that?

[Mr Poppy]

May 9, 2023 12:34:13 GMT patrickbrian said:

Trevor

Johnson is toxic with the British public now. The "good-old- Boris" days are gone forever. Are dyed-in-the-wool Tories the last who can see that?

Surely having just corrected colin about assumptions then you are not making one of your own.

I don't know but you appear not to have read the "hypothetical" where I pointed out the risks. If you know "dyed-in-the-wool Tories" then you could ask them - although these days it is mostly a choice between Tory colours (Blue, Red or Orange) then plenty of people who don't wear dyed wool 

EG Corbyn-LAB voters who will now vote for "Red Tories" noting the very high % "loyalty" in the LAB'19 x-breaks of opinion polling. Same colour but totally different party. 

PS Could you post recent polling on Boris "approval" rating - I can't seem to find any but you say he is "toxic with the British public now" so I assume you have some polling to show that, or just forgot to say IMO? 

[thylacine]

With results in from all 230 councils, the Conservatives lost 957 seats, with Labour gaining 643, the Lib Dems gaining 415 and Greens gaining 200.

This is something that winds me up a bit. These are figures from the Guardian which are quite different to those from the BBC. Am I right in assuming this is because of differences in base line , counting wards that have had boundaries changed or had intervening by elections? It was the same with the swing figures being quoted on the night which even seemed to vary within the same news source

[Mark]

May 9, 2023 5:55:50 GMT neilj said:

Even the Telegraph can see it's all over for the Tories and Sunak
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/08/rishi-sunak-teetering-on-brink-as-tories-face-oblivion/
Make no mistake: we have just entered the endgame in the Tories’ 13-year reign...
The PM is trapped in a zero-sum game where any attempt to court one group of voters with a targeted gesture risks alienating the other. Sending asylum seekers off to central Africa may prove roaringly popular in the Red Wall, but the prospect is unleashing paroxysms of disgust at the dinner parties of home-working centre-Right professionals. A new round of flashy net zero projects may help the likes of Dominic Raab cling on in Surrey’s virtuous millionaire enclaves, but Workington Man can only bristle with indignation at Whitehall’s breathy utopianism as he struggles to feed the gas meter.

In other words, the Tories are now collapsing on all fronts. Their short-lived dominance in the Red Wall is evaporating. Even more portentous is the resurrection of the Liberal Democrats. Ed Davey’s efforts to breach the “Blue Wall” with a strange brew of NHS activism, Nimbyism and carefully crafted attack ads on stealth taxes, is paying off. Equally disquieting is the thought that a second Brexit referendum could be the price of support in a coalition with Labour. The third party knows too well that the Remainer South’s nettling exasperation with Brexit has not abated.

But it gets even worse for the Tories; lurking beneath an increasingly bleak electoral calculus is an alarming historical trend. That is the strange death of Thatcherite England. It is striking that even in Tory swing seats in the South, the NHS was the biggest issue coming up on the doorstep at the local elections. There is a new generation of Tory voters that expects both lower taxes and a well-functioning health service. Three generations on from the Second World War, the welfare state’s entrenchment as a suite of basic entitlements for all citizens rather than a safety net for the most vulnerable seems complete.

The fading of Thatcherite England’s animal spirits is also unmistakable, even if it is only the Lib Dems who appear fully in tune with this trend. As asset values climb in an era of wage stagnation, small-C conservatives don’t hesitate to thwart developments that threaten the value of their nest eggs'

The article does go onto say the tories can recover if they fix the long term structural issues of the economy, but add 'Let’s not hold our breath'

Whatever happens in the next GE, the tories are doomed long term unless there is a serious sea change at their core.

That doesn't mean a free run for Labour ong term as a fair chunk of the country are economically ROC. Perhaps a new ROC party will emerge long term (without a tory sea change, I think this could well happen).

In the 1950's-1970's, what we call the 'post war consensus' was more or less followed by both main parties. Several on here have commented that the tory Chamberlain government was economically to the left of the Blair government....and certinly did better at, for example, house building.

We now have a new consensus, the "post brexit" one.

We see from polling, post brexit, younger voters have moved sharply towards liberal/left values on social issues, kick started IMO by brexit, but, amplified by climate change and to a lesser extent, by thing such as Black Lives Matter, the Me Too movement and more.

Some questions lend themselves at this point...

1. Surely there have been sizeable youth movements before?

Indeed there have. To give one example, along with over 150,000 others, I was on the Anti-Nazi League carnival of 1994. A demonstration march through London followed by a concert in Hyde Park. Admittedly the bands were the main draw for a fair few that attended, headliners including The Levellers and Manic Street Preachers, but, the there was next to nothing in the mainstream media. I got a friend to video the news programmes and looked through the next day's papers. There was almost no coverage.

Compare to today where footballers take the knee and everyone knows who Greta is.

2. People generally get more right wing as they get older.

Firstly, I don't think that is necessarily tue. The data for this assertion is generally that from the end of the second world war - there are some from the start of that period that are still around today.

Also, take, for example, Brexit. There are a chunk of voters that voted against the then EEC in the 1970s in their 20s/30s that voted for Brexit again in their 60s/70s. The largest anti-europe faction by generation both times.

The winter of discontent pushed some people towards ROC, the Iraq war didn't really help the tories as, while it was Blair that did it, opposition came from the left, not the right, then, we have Brexit.

Also, I would suggest that attitudes, while of course being shaped by events, are formed early on. Yes some have 'lightbulb moments', both LOC->ROC and ROC->LOC, later in life, but, many don't. People change their mind who to vote for in an individual election, they may change their mind on one particular issue, but, core values, once instilled, often don't change.

In terms of said core values, the liberal-quake or liberal consesus, isn't yet the maority of voters, the 'anti-woke' stuff still plays well with a chunk of, mostly, older voters, but, that will change. Id give it 20 years tops.

Such a change does not necessarily nean that on economic issues the majority will be LOC, some will still be ROC, the change happening mainly on the social axis, not the fiscal one, hence my thinking that we could see a new ROC party if the tories don't change.

[patrickbrian]

Trevor

www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/20/bringing-back-boris-johnson-as-uk-pm-would-be-a-joke-says-polls-expert

Any use?

But you are right. Strictly speaking just my opinion. Sometimes though 'IMO' morphs into the bleeding obvious! I'm not being partisan though. Bringing back Boris would be a monumental act of self-harm for Tories (IMO/bleeding obvious!)

[mercian]

May 9, 2023 8:56:14 GMT steve said:

Bizarre comments from leading Labour MP David Lammy over the weekend that an incoming Labour government wouldn't be able to repeal Tory legislation, because there's a lot of it!

What the actual F!

If an incoming Labour government simply wants to keep the destructive nihilistic laws the Tories have foisted on us, what's actually the point of voting for them?


youtu.be/k-gldTc5kOk

Tweedledee and Tweedledum. It's the late 60s/early 70s all over again.

[shevii]

May 9, 2023 13:09:43 GMT thylacine said:

With results in from all 230 councils, the Conservatives lost 957 seats, with Labour gaining 643, the Lib Dems gaining 415 and Greens gaining 200.

This is something that winds me up a bit. These are figures from the Guardian which are quite different to those from the BBC. Am I right in assuming this is because of differences in base line , counting wards that have had boundaries changed or had intervening by elections? It was the same with the swing figures being quoted on the night which even seemed to vary within the same news source

Guardian take theirs from AP who note the changes from the day before the election, whereas BBC go on the figures when they were last fought.  So if a party lost a by election in the last 4 years or if someone defected then the Guardian regards that as already lost to the party they represented 4 years ago and there isn't a gain.

I think we had a discussion last year and I was firmly of the view that a comparison with 4 years ago is more relevant than the day before the election whereas others (of a Labour persuasion) disagreed. It was noticeable that last year Guardian was better than BBC for Labour gains, and I can't help feeling a few contributors regarded the Guardian view as the right one, so hopefully they haven't changed their minds now :-)  I'm still of the opinion that BBC figures are more meaningful in showing a trend.

[mercian]

May 9, 2023 12:09:36 GMT colin said:

May 9, 2023 11:56:58 GMT Mr Poppy said:

So I'm undecided on "Bring Boris Back". I can see some benefits, some risks. Subject to the huge IF then only Rishi can decide if the risk/reward is worth it and only then provided Boris understands his limited role. 

I get the temptation on Boris. But honestly_I think it would be a disaster. He wouldn't stick to a subordinate brief having been PM.

Sunak would be out of his mind to do it imo.

Yes, one danger is that he'd be a loose cannon, making up policy on the hoof and so on. However if they get desperate enough...

[neilj]

@mark

Agree
For me the biggest obstacle to tory party success is tory party members. Most are far more socially Conservative and to the right of most tory party voters, let alone swing voters
Just as Starmer did with momentum and Kinnock with Militant Sundk needs to stand upto them. If not Sunak then the next leader
People's attitudes have changed, pandering to a 100,000 or do members will not make the tories electable for the country as a while