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Post by JohnC on May 8, 2023 21:13:35 GMT
Regardless of whether the Met's actions were appropriate or not, will this do their reputation more harm than arresting innocent people? Sorry, but that poster is an anarchist disruptor. The Police often have very tough work to do, and here we have an example. Those dogs were a danger, it's a distressing outcome but the only one. It is reported that one of the dogs attacked a woman earlier. There is going to be an enquiry into the circumstances. |
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Post by mercian on May 8, 2023 21:13:57 GMT
Let's just be clear what the steps to rejoining involve: 1. A Government is elected on unambiguous manifesto that it wishes to hold a referendum on rejoining 2. Referendum is held to agree to opening rejoining terms with the EU Federal Superstate 3. Terms are agreed and put to a "final say" referendum. Under the Uk system of supeme sovereignty, all that is required for the UK to join the EU is for parliament to pass the necessary legislation, and its done. In fact that could probably be done quite simply by revoking all the legislation used to leave, which would legally put us straight back in. Yes of course the EU would have to agree. But all this stuff about referenda is nonsense, there is no need at all to do any of that. Thats the beauty of an unwritten constitution. There would have to be years of negotiations to see whether and on what terms the EU might be prepared to let the UK back in before there would be any point in legislation. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 8, 2023 21:17:06 GMT
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 8, 2023 21:17:40 GMT
Two things concern me about this Firstly dividends have doubled while sewage and water pollution gets worse Secondly the labyrinth structuring of the companies make it more difficult to work out dividends have increased. If water companies weren't such paragons of probity and ethical standards you would almost think they did it to hide the increased dividends www.ft.com/content/ee03d551-8eee-4136-9eeb-7c8b51169a99 |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 8, 2023 21:18:24 GMT
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Post by alec on May 8, 2023 21:26:03 GMT
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Post by jib on May 8, 2023 21:55:10 GMT
EDIT : Incidentally what on earth is an "anarchist disruptor"? They exhibit behaviour such as throwing bronze statues into docks. That type. |
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Post by eor on May 8, 2023 21:57:47 GMT
Sorry, but that poster is an anarchist disruptor. The Police often have very tough work to do, and here we have an example. Those dogs were a danger, it's a distressing outcome but the only one. I suspect you are right. There'll inevitably be a lot of sympathy directed towards the dogs, either by people who think a less lethal approach could have been taken, or those to whom it just feels chillingly wrong, a bunch of armed men needing to shoot two dogs that are on leads. I assume he is seen to be disrupting anarchy in the sense of imposing unrequested order where others would prefer chaos, and thus curtailing their freedom. I shudder to think what the current Met would have charged St Francis of Assisi with... |
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on May 8, 2023 22:23:13 GMT
There would have to be years of negotiations to see whether and on what terms the EU might be prepared to let the UK back in before there would be any point in legislation. Why? The lengthy accession process is to align an applicant's economy. Ours is already aligned. Of course until our pathetic political system is sorted out they would refuse membership. But the end result may be an association treaty, a bit like EFTA's EEA. Because our economy is much bigger than any other EFTA member it would be a special one-of-a-kind (sui generis). We could get that relatively quickly without rejoining the political club. Accepting full Schengen membership would be a big step to integrating our economy back into the Single Market and Customs Union, and help to repair some of the damage that's been self inflicted on our economy.
Of course that would not fix everything. It will take years to repair the damage. All those SMEs that have gone under, and those larger businesses that have been forced to restructure in favour of the EU. But it would help to stop the rot. But until there is stabilty of our political system I can't see that happening. The longer we keep ourselves shut out of the Single Market the more damage is done to our economy and the more pressing will be the need to respond. Big business is dismayed, but can do nothing other than get on with moving or restructuring their operations to minimise the damage, while they wait for the children to sort out the politics.
It's our shit. We caused it. We must now lie in it. Or, to put it another way: own it.
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Post by eor on May 8, 2023 22:34:05 GMT
Just on the "red wall" and the "blue wall" - the terminology carries a fairly bitter irony in that its current popularity started with the "blue wall" in the 2016 US Presidential election, where various states were wrongly assumed to be safe for Hillary Clinton due to demographic composition and past voting, which meant in turn that her campaign could safely ignore them and focus its massive resources on competing in states where Trump had a chance of winning.
The whole concept is a byword for doomed complacency and for obsessively focusing on what mattered in the past instead of now.
Pollsters and party analysts are crap at identifying where the meaningful battlegrounds in the next election will be -that's why elections are still fun.
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on May 8, 2023 23:20:15 GMT
I read Diane Coyle's review on Ian Dunt's book this evening. This may interest some: www.enlightenmenteconomics.com/blog/Competent government? Read and weep
Posted on May 6, 2023
As if a downpour on the long holiday weekend (and Coronation Day) were not enough to dampen the spirits, I just read Ian Dunt’s How Westminster Works … and Why It Doesn’t. It’s an excellent book, forensic in its analysis of the operations of the UK’s central government – and that is exactly why it’s so deeply depressing and angry-making. The chapters cover both the political processes – selection of MPs, role of special advisers, the imbalance of power between the Executive and Parliament, lobby journalism – and the official aspects – an amateur-by-design civil service that’s becoming ever-less capable, increasing tensions between ministers and officials, the dire impact of the Treasury. The book is even handed, pointing out that many of the trends that make for ineffective government today started in the 1990s or before, and were accelerated significantly by New Labour, before being turbo-charged by the succession of Conservative governments that have followed. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 8, 2023 23:21:21 GMT
There would have to be years of negotiations to see whether and on what terms the EU might be prepared to let the UK back in before there would be any point in legislation. Why? The lengthy accession process is to align an applicant's economy. Ours is already aligned. Of course until our pathetic political system is sorted out they would refuse membership. But the end result may be an association treaty, a bit like EFTA's EEA. Because our economy is much bigger than any other EFTA member it would be a special one-of-a-kind (sui generis). We could get that relatively quickly without rejoining the political club. Accepting full Schengen membership would be a big step to integrating our economy back into the Single Market and Customs Union, and help to repair some of the damage that's been self inflicted on our economy.
It is a possibility that the EU may decline to consider a UK application until referendums have taken place in NI and Scotland as to whether these parts of the UK confirm the territorial stability of the UK - or not. They really don't need yet more problems with Westminster causing difficulties within its own territory. |
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Post by moby on May 9, 2023 5:22:41 GMT
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 9, 2023 5:55:50 GMT
Even the Telegraph can see it's all over for the Tories and Sunak www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/08/rishi-sunak-teetering-on-brink-as-tories-face-oblivion/Make no mistake: we have just entered the endgame in the Tories’ 13-year reign... The PM is trapped in a zero-sum game where any attempt to court one group of voters with a targeted gesture risks alienating the other. Sending asylum seekers off to central Africa may prove roaringly popular in the Red Wall, but the prospect is unleashing paroxysms of disgust at the dinner parties of home-working centre-Right professionals. A new round of flashy net zero projects may help the likes of Dominic Raab cling on in Surrey’s virtuous millionaire enclaves, but Workington Man can only bristle with indignation at Whitehall’s breathy utopianism as he struggles to feed the gas meter. In other words, the Tories are now collapsing on all fronts. Their short-lived dominance in the Red Wall is evaporating. Even more portentous is the resurrection of the Liberal Democrats. Ed Davey’s efforts to breach the “Blue Wall” with a strange brew of NHS activism, Nimbyism and carefully crafted attack ads on stealth taxes, is paying off. Equally disquieting is the thought that a second Brexit referendum could be the price of support in a coalition with Labour. The third party knows too well that the Remainer South’s nettling exasperation with Brexit has not abated. But it gets even worse for the Tories; lurking beneath an increasingly bleak electoral calculus is an alarming historical trend. That is the strange death of Thatcherite England. It is striking that even in Tory swing seats in the South, the NHS was the biggest issue coming up on the doorstep at the local elections. There is a new generation of Tory voters that expects both lower taxes and a well-functioning health service. Three generations on from the Second World War, the welfare state’s entrenchment as a suite of basic entitlements for all citizens rather than a safety net for the most vulnerable seems complete. The fading of Thatcherite England’s animal spirits is also unmistakable, even if it is only the Lib Dems who appear fully in tune with this trend. As asset values climb in an era of wage stagnation, small-C conservatives don’t hesitate to thwart developments that threaten the value of their nest eggs' The article does go onto say the tories can recover if they fix the long term structural issues of the economy, but add 'Let’s not hold our breath' |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 9, 2023 6:28:41 GMT
Of course brexit has screwed the Uk economy which can only be resolved by rejoining. No politicians seem willing to do that. Let's just be clear what the steps to rejoining involve: 1. A Government is elected on unambiguous manifesto that it wishes to hold a referendum on rejoining 2. Referendum is held to agree to opening rejoining terms with the EU Federal Superstate 3. Terms are agreed and put to a "final say" referendum. I doubt any party (outside of Scotland) is crazy enough to want to put the country through Brexit in reverse but with Entente then more mini deals to fix some of the minor issues would be mutually beneficial. I note:
EU leaders set out hopes for post-Brexit relations with Britainwww.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/08/eu-leaders-set-out-hopes-for-post-brexit-relations-with-britain |
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Post by shevii on May 9, 2023 7:35:49 GMT
I suspect the R&W will be either people not putting much thought into the question and having voted LD on Thursday just put that down on General Election voting intention, or perhaps having seen the LD win in their local area they think about an ABT two horse race in their own area. Given that only 1/3rd of people voted (not sure precisely the national turnout on this but in Wigan it ranged from 19% to 34% with only about 4 of the more competitive/middle class wards hitting 30%) it seems likely the latter is more likely. As pjw1961 no point unraveling regional crossbreaks on this as regions will be mixed constituencies anyway. So probably nothing for Labour to worry about in the ABT vote switching around for a two horse race scenario. The key thing over the coming months is if the Tory vote picks up to consistently lower 30s and the closer they get to 35% the less likely a Labour overall majority becomes. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 9, 2023 7:47:48 GMT
Just heard the new government plans for GPs on Channel 4 news, which seem to amount to... 1. Brand new telephone systems so that instead of getting 'engaged, you'll get through and be put in a queue. Isn't this what happens already in most places? Certainly it is in my own GP practice...and indeed my Dad's2. More receptionists trained, who will, in turn train others. Ermmmm....the last time I looked, it wasn't the receptionists who actually saw and diagnosed the patients, but, GPs. Didnt hear anything in this about more GPs3. Patients with more serious conditions fast tracked to get seen sooner/same day. see my respons to point 1We are being governed by clowns. You seem to have ignored the 'care navigators' and C4 totally ignored changes to pharmacies and increased staffing numbers in their 'news' piece. www.channel4.com/news/government-pledges-end-to-8am-scramble-for-gp-appointmentsHappy to agree the changes are 'sticking plasters' to a broken NHS system. Maybe Streeting has the answers but IIRC he has already U-turned on his idea of ripping up GP contracts* as he realised that would see a massive exodus of GPs. Not sure where LAB are on reversing CON's pension changes at the moment but with 18mths to a GE then perhaps instead of 'O'-turns there is time for '8' turns on NHS (England) policy- 4 sets of U-turns to get back to the same place as CON. Changing the colour of the deckchairs on NHS Titanic from Blue to Red might raise a cheer from the arch-partisans and perhaps donkeys instead of clowns will be more entertaining for LoCs but neither party is planning the radical reform that NHS needs - and give me a sick bucket if Starmer tries to claim his sticking plasters are going to be much different to Rishi's. * Labour ‘would tear up contract with GPs’ and make them salaried NHS staffwww.theguardian.com/society/2023/jan/07/labour-would-tear-up-contract-with-gps-and-make-them-salaried-nhs-staffPS I think CON did copy some of LAB's "self referral" policy but limited it to specific areas? NHS stuff not my area of expertise but IIRC when that was discussed then there were certainly "pros" and "cons" about that approach but Starmer-LAB has entered the final chapter of Animal Farm where Napoleon (Starmer) and Pilkington (Rishi) each try to play the ace of spades with we mere animals unable to tell pig from man. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 9, 2023 8:02:33 GMT
yeah its bollocks. They clearly had instructions not to let any protests happen and therefore arrested civilian council wardens and people who had negotiated how they would be allowed to run protests discretely. The government line continues to be it was the police who dunnit, not them. However it seems if you are found in possession of luggage with a strap, a belt, a bicycle lock, then they will arrest you because you HAVE broken the law by being in possession of materials which COULD be used for a lockon protest. I guess shoelaces must count too. watch straps? Bras? More seriously, this is an administration which was perfectly happy to break the law and suspend parliament to prevent the MPs expressing their will on behalf of the people. Its clear they are suppressing dissent for exactly the same reason Putin does. To create an image they are in the right when they evidently are not. To hide that a majority disagree with their policies. When there is a growing division between the young and old. Where even labour is not representing the young and we might expect its vote share to be affected accordingly, which of course it is. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 9, 2023 8:07:45 GMT
1. I suspect the R&W will be either people not putting much thought into the question and having voted LD on Thursday just put that down on General Election voting intention, or perhaps having seen the LD win in their local area they think about an ABT two horse race in their own area. Given that only 1/3rd of people voted (not sure precisely the national turnout on this but in Wigan it ranged from 19% to 34% with only about 4 of the more competitive/middle class wards hitting 30%) it seems likely the latter is more likely. 2. As pjw1961 no point unraveling regional crossbreaks on this as regions will be mixed constituencies anyway. 3. So probably nothing for Labour to worry about in the ABT vote switching around for a two horse race scenario. The key thing over the coming months is if the Tory vote picks up to consistently lower 30s and the closer they get to 35% the less likely a Labour overall majority becomes. 1. James E has posted info on the "usual" LDEM good performance in LEs and the "bounce" post LEs. LDEM did continue their "surge" in 2019 for a few months after the LEs, won the B&R by-election, etc as the HoC Brexit stalemate was hurting both CON and LAB. However, by GE'19 then LDEM had dropped back to 11.8%. Maybe this time will be different - maybe not. 2. The regional x-breaks are not weighted and a small sample anyway. MRP might give a better indication but that approach has flaws* as well (as we saw in GE'19 predictions). There's been a "flurry" of tactical voting assumptions recently and if some LAB VI moves to LDEM then folks can "assume" that will all be tactical ABCON voting in a GE if they want to. TBC. 3. Indeed. The biggest assumption in any "prediction" is that polling today will reflect a GE result. Some folks correctly call it a "nowcast" rather than a "forecast" and whilst I'll be accused of bias then the long range forecast for the political weather sees a change in wind direction and glimpses of sun, after 3yrs of Covid then Ukraine related heavy rain and foul winds (eg inflation is going to drop rapidly later this year; NHS backlogs will likely drop; we'll probably avoid a recession and Hunt will find some money to give a 1p cut in basic rate of income tax next year, etc). Hardly the "sunlit uplands" but "things can only get better" and Rishi is only just getting started  * IMO the main flaw is due to 'historic' tactical voting and local presence of specific parties that MRP will struggle to capture - without some 'subjective' tinkering. If you started with a totally clean slate and used a bunch of variables to split out %s for each party by constituency, assuming no tactical voting, then you'd get UKIP'15 kind of 'lumpiness' for likes of LDEM and they'd probably only win a handful of seats, yet via split vote "enable" CON to win loads of CON-LAB marginals. Clearly some tactical voting occurred in GE'17 and GE'19 and that might well increase in GE'24. MRP will struggle to 'unravel' the historic element and with a weak foundation will struggle to build an accurate prediction on top of that. NB MRP is still useful to see, but like all other approaches it is not going to be perfect. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 9, 2023 8:18:05 GMT
Even the Telegraph can see it's all over for the Tories and Sunak www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/08/rishi-sunak-teetering-on-brink-as-tories-face-oblivion/...The PM is trapped in a zero-sum game where any attempt to court one group of voters with a targeted gesture risks alienating the other. Sending asylum seekers off to central Africa may prove roaringly popular in the Red Wall, but the prospect is unleashing paroxysms of disgust at the dinner parties of home-working centre-Right professionals. news this morning carried a report King Charles had said the policy of sending assylum seekers to Rwanda was 'appauling'. Evidendtly this disgust goes all the way to the top of traditional tory supporting classes. coming back to the Times' opening point, tory core voter block is pensioners. Pensioners are THE group who use NHS services. Younger labour voters ironically are not personally reliant on the NHS in the same way. The economy has deteriorated throughout their term in power. Thatcher/Major's term was rescued economically by north sea oil, and they used massive giveaways of state assets to buy votes. This term they hiked the national debt massively because there was no N. Sea bonanza. Con are very good at PR, rather less good at growing an economy. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 9, 2023 8:20:14 GMT
I doubt any party (outside of Scotland) is crazy enough to want to put the country through Brexit in reverse I agree with you, both lab and con are not interested in rejoining. But this is for their own reasons, not because there is not a majority in the Uk which wants to rejoin immediately. The politicians allowed this to happen which they should have stood against in the national interest. They broke it, they need to fix it now. |
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Post by bardin1 on May 9, 2023 8:25:39 GMT
EDIT : Incidentally what on earth is an "anarchist disruptor"? Not sure but we have a [local] man who deals with such things Attachments:
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steve
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Post by steve on May 9, 2023 8:27:11 GMT
alecCovid currently doesn't feature in the ten most common causes of death in the UK in January 2023 it was ninth this figure includes both due to and involved with data. According to the CDC covid ( both due and involved data) was the fourth leading cause of death in 2022. There is no data for 2023 but the falling mortality from covid clearly means it's going to have fallen further. The data you reference doesn't measure the current rates.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 9, 2023 8:27:32 GMT
neither party is planning the radical reform that NHS needs - and give me a sick bucket if Starmer tries to claim his sticking plasters are going to be much different to Rishi's. So what do you consider these are? What the NHS really needs is an honest debate that you get what you pay for. Its one of the most cost effective health services iin the world, no use pretending there are any real 'efficiency savings'. The bottom line is less money means people die earlier. Thats the debate we need to have, how much care for the elderly are we willing to pay for? And incidentally we need to accept what all the unions have been saying for the last year. You cannot simply slash public sector pay, including therefore doctors and nurses, and expect the service to just run smoothly. It simply wont if you refuse to pay highly skilled people a market rate. Con have used slashed pay to keep up staff numbers, and it isnt sustainable. And yet labour refuses to call them out on this.
A trillion pounds spent on lockdown was a despicable hypocrisy when the same government is not willing to raise annual NHS funding which would save more life years per pound spent.
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Post by crossbat11 on May 9, 2023 8:29:30 GMT
My thought for the day as I wait for Mrs H to decide on her walking attire for the day. This process started an hour ago and is still ongoing! Craster to Alnmouth today and the weather is glorious.
The thought? The danger of allowing small percentage point poll shifts to appear easily achieved and relatively small beer. For example, when we blithely say that the Tories may recover to 35% VI from their current position in the late 20s, that figure of 5 or 6 points sounds reasonable. Nothing much but, when translated to people and votes, we're then into the millions. That is some shift in voting intention. It's a colossal shift in fact.
So, when we look at polls and percentage VI, it's worth reflecting on what really needs to happen to save the Tories between now and polling day. Millions of people to shift from where they've been for 12 months or more now. A structural and long lasting opinion shift to totally unravel.
What appears on the political horizon to make that likely? I can't see anything.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 9, 2023 8:40:39 GMT
What appears on the political horizon to make that likely? I can't see anything. Tories will reach the point when supporting rejoin becomes a net vote winner for them. At that moment they will become the party of EU membership once again. In a sense you dont need events on the horizon when you can create your own. I doubt con will do this before the next election for two reasons. For one, their change of heart wouldnt be seen as credible. For another, there are still ideological leavers in positions of power within the conservative party. But they got to those posts because con saw brexit as a tool to win elections. When the need is to support rejoining to win elections, suitably minded leaders will be found. If con's position deteriorates further by the next election, then they just might campaign on a ticket of getting closer to the EU because brexit didnt work, but they will need a high desperation threshold to do so. I am intrigued just when our remainer MP Merriman in Rother will declare his colours. i think it entirely possible the next con election manifesto will be pitched to appear more pro EU than labour's. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 9, 2023 8:53:27 GMT
Tory unhappiness with the local election results
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steve
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Post by steve on May 9, 2023 8:56:14 GMT
Bizarre comments from leading Labour MP David Lammy over the weekend that an incoming Labour government wouldn't be able to repeal Tory legislation, because there's a lot of it! What the actual F! If an incoming Labour government simply wants to keep the destructive nihilistic laws the Tories have foisted on us, what's actually the point of voting for them? youtu.be/k-gldTc5kOk |
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2023 9:06:09 GMT
Bizarre comments from leading Labour MP David Lammy over the weekend that an incoming Labour government wouldn't be able to repeal Tory legislation, because there's a lot of it! What the actual F! If an incoming Labour government simply wants to keep the destructive nihilistic laws the Tories have foisted on us, what's actually the point of voting for them? youtu.be/k-gldTc5kOkSome of us have been asking this question for a while now.
Welcome to the club.
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2023 9:09:40 GMT
Nothing tempts old CB11 onto the stage quite so strongly as a chance to air some well worn cliches and magniloquence. And May 4 provided the perfect cue for a bit of the old Tectonic Plates and Death of The Tories routine .
And on this board, the only sound of acceptable dissent these days is the silence of more circumspect analysts.
For those of us who say "on the doorstep" when reaching our own home , rather than knocking on someone else's ; this board is terra incognita , with its ambulatory anecdotes from Voter Land.
So it was with a modicum of relief , that I read William Hague in today's Times. Thoughtfully ( and factually ) dispatching rhetoric of 1996, his own thoughts are drawn to 2014 or 2019. Starmer's "“Make no mistake, we are on course for a Labour majority at the next general election” is framed in the interesting context of steering debate away from the "looming nightmare of Labour becoming the largest party but without a majority".
Of less comfort though, was WH's advice to Sunak to " speed things up". I wouldn't bet a cent on Whitehall responding to that.
Nevertheless , for this dispirited roc proponent , our William provided a few moments of relief.
Now back to the never ending Polls and those blessed UKPR2 folk who seem to understand and respect them.
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