oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Apr 27, 2023 17:21:23 GMT
Latest Deltapoll of Westminster VI:
SNP 40% : SLab 30% : SCon 19% : SLD 6% : SGP 4% : REFUK 1%
We need a proper Full Scottish poll! |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 27, 2023 17:41:39 GMT
Tories to leave thousands of EU laws intact in latest Brexit betrayal
Kemi Badenoch said to have told Eurosceptics it was impossible to remove the rulings despite Rishi Sunak’s pledge to abolish more than 4,000
“The Prime Minister gave his public backing in January to the Retained EU Law Bill, which will abolish more than 4,000 EU laws by the end of this year.
However, in a briefing to senior Tory Eurosceptic MPs on Monday, Kemi Badenoch, the Trade Secretary, said that only 20 per cent of those laws - just 800 - were likely to be scrapped by Dec 31.
The number that Mrs Badenoch is proposing to remove is smaller than the 1,400 EU laws which were found in the National Archive as part of a Whitehall hunt for needless EU laws.
Mrs Badenoch reportedly told the MPs that civil servants had told her that it was impossible to remove the 4,000 EU laws, the vast bulk of which sit in the environment department.
The hope now is that the remaining EU laws might be removed over time, however, that risks a future Labour government reversing the plans.
Conservative MPs told The Telegraph they were furious at the apparent hollowing out of the legislation which they see as a surrender to civil servants who they see as being unwilling to strip away EU red tape.”
Telegraph
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 27, 2023 17:45:43 GMT
“Mrs Badenoch is one to watch should there be a Conservative leadership contest if the Tories lose the next election and Mr Sunak quits as leader.
But one of the MPs said that watering down the REUL Bill would be a problem for MPs and party members who might have supported her. The MP said: “This blows her leadership chances. She will lose a third of the party.”
The situation is being seen by the ERG as another betrayal after the Prime Minister pushed ahead with the Windsor Framework.
…
A government source took aim at previous Conservative business secretaries, telling the Telegraph: “Kemi inherited a mess in REUL when she became Business Secretary, with the Bill sinking under technicalities and legalese.
“She is a true Brexiteer, she delivered CPTPP to show the country a brave future outside of the EU, and she’s now got a grip of the process. She’s a doer and not a talker.
“This Government will pass the REUL bill and end the supremacy of EU law in the UK, and if Brexiteers want delivery they should get behind what she’s doing.””
Telegraph
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 27, 2023 18:08:23 GMT
... The situation is being seen by the ERG as another betrayal after the Prime Minister pushed ahead with the Windsor Framework.…The 'useful idiots' ERG are no longer the force they once were and now just a small group of idiots. The whole 'bonfire of regulations' nonsense has been covered many times, going back to May's "3 buckets" Here's an article showing how Rishi is fixing the internal issue within CON (under 'new' Rishi management) and running rings around Starmer-LAB in the process
Rishi Sunak's 'unite or die' message to the Tories is slowly whipping his party into shapeinews.co.uk/opinion/rishi-sunaks-unite-or-die-message-to-the-tories-is-slowly-whipping-his-party-into-shape-2303840?ico=most_popularLAB might still try their attack ads on stuff like sewage but Starmer's Opposition Day motion backfired as due to partisan voting LAB couldn't be seen to back CON's "rewrite" of LAB's own motion. As the article states: "one Labour MP admitting that his party had been "made to look like twats""For CON MPs then "it is not the taking part but the winning that counts". Hence, with a GE now just 18mths away then self preservation combined with the very low bar set by Boris and the Truss error is perhaps lucky timing. Although Rishi will know that "winners make their own luck" |
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Post by alec on Apr 27, 2023 18:09:17 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w (quoting the DT) - "The hope now is that the remaining EU laws might be removed over time, however, that risks a future Labour government reversing the plans." Not quite sure why changing these laws after December alters the chance of subsequent amendment, so this seems a strange comment.
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Post by Rafwan on Apr 27, 2023 18:13:24 GMT
[On Diane Abbott, clumsily pasted from old thread]
steviebee said:
I am not sure how amenable this board is to anyone who wishes to support Diane Abbott over her letter, but I want to anyway, so here goes. Her letter was not in any way antisemitic. The interpretations that have been put upon it are distortions that do not reflect what she intended.
pjw1961 said (inter alia)
…
the letter is deeply problematic, as she now recognises herself. It argues in effect for a hierarchy of racism - Jews and Travellers suffer "prejudice" but not racism, which is restricted to people of African descent. The problem with that is not so much that it is antisemitic, but that it is racist in itself (with the comparison to prejudice against redheads just making it worse). Jews and Travellers have indisputably suffered racism and trying to argue that one group's experience is worse than another's is staggeringly unhelpful to the overall fight against racism. The only sustainable stance to take is that all forms of racism - by any group, against any group - are wrong and equally abhorrent.
…
I (formerly known as steviebee) now say :
I don’t think she does propose such a hierarchy. Nor does she try “to argue that one group’s experience is worse than another’s”. A brick through the window is the same whether it happens to a black person, a Jew or a traveller. Just horrible. (And the same for a redhead, though I know of no recorded instances of this.)
However, if you carry visual characteristics based on race (i.e. inherited through genes), rather than ethnicity (i.e. inherited through custom), it is possible you may feel more trapped and vulnerable because of this. I have never really faced discrimination at all (save latterly perhaps for the occasional bellow of “oi, grandad”), and I think it is of great importance that people who have should be able to discuss the experience freely and without recrimination.
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 27, 2023 18:14:09 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w (quoting the DT) - "The hope now is that the remaining EU laws might be removed over time, however, that risks a future Labour government reversing the plans." Not quite sure why changing these laws after December alters the chance of subsequent amendment, so this seems a strange comment. Well you may well be right Alec: others know more about these legalities than me and am happy to be educated on the matter |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Apr 27, 2023 18:15:54 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w (quoting the DT) - "The hope now is that the remaining EU laws might be removed over time, however, that risks a future Labour government reversing the plans." Not quite sure why changing these laws after December alters the chance of subsequent amendment, so this seems a strange comment. It's quite extraordinary that that is anyone's 'hope' and if it is you'd wonder why that would be unless they're a dodgy tory donor with eye on evading scrutiny and rolling back protections. This is the DTel though, the nearest thing we have to Fox news and it's pronouncements are generally realitaetsfern as we like to say. I confirm this when I occasionally pluck up the stamina to peruse it when visiting my mother. Always feel like I need a Gaviscon afterwards.. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 27, 2023 18:22:30 GMT
A 15% Labour lead over the Conservatives translates into a Labour overall majority of 10 and Starmer wants to keep FPTP ... hmm. Having said that, if the SNP issues lead to a melt down on that front, a Labour OM becomes much more likely. This is based on an Uniform Swing Model. Putting the same numbers into Electoral Calculus gives Labour 406 seats and a majority of 162, so I'm not very impressed by the new owner of UKPR. To be fair, I picked the UKPR model more to make a point about FPTP not favouring Labour as much as some of its dinosaur tendency like to believe. The model showing the Conservatives on 194, but with largely non-urban areas staying blue looks pretty credible as a reflection of current polling. |
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Post by Rafwan on Apr 27, 2023 18:23:50 GMT
THis extraordinary post with its dated concept of "workers" in the age of technology ,hammers home the chasm in perception and understanding of UKplc/ltd between you & I. So no point in diving into the underlying philosophies . But perhaps you will allow a few factual responses:- A- The UK Small Business sector * ( 0 to 49 employees) -accounts for :- +5,465,320 businesses-99% of all businesses +12.9 million employment-48% of all business employment. + £1.4bn sales-34% of all business sales They are not all "self employed". Their entrepreneurship is the foundation stone of UK plc/ltd-not a "soubriquet" ( sic) B- Debt is not the pre-eminent source of funding for UK companies. Debt to Equity ratio is around 70% to 80% ** C- "Merchant Bankers" don't fund large companies. Large Company funding is made up as follows ***:- Market based securities ( bonds) -46% Large UK Banks-15% Non Bank Loans-13% Crossborder borrowing-13% Foreign banks-13% By contrast *** 89% of SME borrowing was from Banks ( 55% from Large Banks_) * ONS-2022 data **-CPA *** 2020 data -Bank of England ... I will not engage in a battle of statistics ... Allow me, then. The data given here do not in any way undermine or rebut wb61's initial post, which was lucid, precise and illuminating. There is much here to support and endorse it. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 27, 2023 18:30:10 GMT
While that is true, Adam Bienkov's article suggests that Starmer's current attempt to portray himself as having a “long-standing view against PR” is contradicted by his previous comments - unless, of course, Starmer has a short term interpretation of what "long term" means! My primary point is that it is not news in April, since we have known since at least September last year. Nor was I in the slightest bit surprised. The reason for my decision to join the Labour Party was when Blair promised a commission and referendum on PR - a promise he broke when he won a FPTP landslide (we got the Jenkins commission, but its report gathered dust). I expect nothing from Labour on this unless there is a hung parliament. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 27, 2023 18:48:45 GMT
While that is true, Adam Bienkov's article suggests that Starmer's current attempt to portray himself as having a “long-standing view against PR” is contradicted by his previous comments - unless, of course, Starmer has a short term interpretation of what "long term" means! My primary point is that it is not news in April, since we have known since at least September last year. Nor was I in the slightest bit surprised. The reason for my decision to join the Labour Party was when Blair promised a commission and referendum on PR - a promise he broke when he won a FPTP landslide (we got the Jenkins commission, but its report gathered dust). I expect nothing from Labour on this unless there is a hung parliament. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 27, 2023 18:50:35 GMT
[On Diane Abbott, clumsily pasted from old thread] steviebee said: I am not sure how amenable this board is to anyone who wishes to support Diane Abbott over her letter, but I want to anyway, so here goes. Her letter was not in any way antisemitic. The interpretations that have been put upon it are distortions that do not reflect what she intended.
pjw1961 said (inter alia) …
the letter is deeply problematic, as she now recognises herself. It argues in effect for a hierarchy of racism - Jews and Travellers suffer "prejudice" but not racism, which is restricted to people of African descent. The problem with that is not so much that it is antisemitic, but that it is racist in itself (with the comparison to prejudice against redheads just making it worse). Jews and Travellers have indisputably suffered racism and trying to argue that one group's experience is worse than another's is staggeringly unhelpful to the overall fight against racism. The only sustainable stance to take is that all forms of racism - by any group, against any group - are wrong and equally abhorrent.
I (formerly known as steviebee) now say : I don’t think she does propose such a hierarchy. Nor does she try “to argue that one group’s experience is worse than another’s”. A brick through the window is the same whether it happens to a black person, a Jew or a traveller. Just horrible. (And the same for a redhead, though I know of no recorded instances of this.) However, if you carry visual characteristics based on race (i.e. inherited through genes), rather than ethnicity (i.e. inherited through custom), it is possible you may feel more trapped and vulnerable because of this. I have never really faced discrimination at all (save latterly perhaps for the occasional bellow of “oi, grandad”), and I think it is of great importance that people who have should be able to discuss the experience freely and without recrimination. I'm not sure how you can conclude that she doesn't advocate a hierarchy of racism; she is clear that in her view black people experience racism, Jews and Travellers do not, in which she is demonstrably wrong, as I am sure you will know. I will remind you how deeply Jayblanc was offended by that, even before mercian's post (in itself an example of anti-Gypsy racism) caused him to leave. If we are going to call out that sort of behaviour from the right we also have to be open about when someone on our side of the fence gets it wrong. This is the full text of her letter - the highlighting is mine. "Tomiwa Owolade claims that Irish, Jewish and Traveller people all suffer from “racism” (“Racism in Britain is not a black and white issue. It’s far more complicated”, Comment). They undoubtedly experience prejudice. This is similar to racism and the two words are often used as if they are interchangeable. It is true that many types of white people with points of difference, such as redheads, can experience this prejudice. But they are not all their lives subject to racism. In pre-civil rights America, Irish people, Jewish people and Travellers were not required to sit at the back of the bus. In apartheid South Africa, these groups were allowed to vote. And at the height of slavery, there were no white-seeming people manacled on the slave ships.Diane Abbott House of Commons, London SW1" Here is a useful take on the matter from someone sympathetic to Diane Abbott but who also recognises that it is impossible to support what she wrote and that it is profoundly damaging to the anti-racist cause: www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/27/diane-abbott-racism-letter-racial-politics |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 27, 2023 18:55:20 GMT
My primary point is that it is not news in April, since we have known since at least September last year. Nor was I in the slightest bit surprised. The reason for my decision to join the Labour Party was when Blair promised a commission and referendum on PR - a promise he broke when he won a FPTP landslide (we got the Jenkins commission, but its report gathered dust). I expect nothing from Labour on this unless there is a hung parliament. I'm reasonably confident that Starmer won't appoint Suella Braverman to be home secretary and that in itself would be a huge leap in a better direction. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 27, 2023 19:13:38 GMT
"Only 40 per cent of Australians would prefer King Charles over an Australian as head of state, according to a poll released by the Australian Republic Movement.
ARM said the poll, which was conducted in early April, found that 60 per cent wanted an Australian chosen by Australians.
The poll found the younger generation, aged 18 to 24, were strongly opposed to the monarchy’s continued role with almost 70 per cent supporting an Australian in the role. The 25 to 34 year olds had a similar belief but support for the Australian model slipped as people aged, but was still supported by the majority even among those aged 65 and over."
inqld.com.au/news/2023/04/26/raise-a-toast-to-charlie-republic-poll-shows-australians-want-this-to-be-the-last-coronation/
Prince William might be quite chuffed at the idea of inheriting an enormous personal fortune, without all the boring stuff of having to open things and sign his name - if the English follow the example of Australians (and Scots).
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 27, 2023 19:33:31 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w (quoting the DT) - "The hope now is that the remaining EU laws might be removed over time, however, that risks a future Labour government reversing the plans." Not quite sure why changing these laws after December alters the chance of subsequent amendment, so this seems a strange comment. It's quite extraordinary that that is anyone's 'hope' and if it is you'd wonder why that would be unless they're a dodgy tory donor with eye on evading scrutiny and rolling back protections. This is the DTel though, the nearest thing we have to Fox news and it's pronouncements are generally realitaetsfern as we like to say. I confirm this when I occasionally pluck up the stamina to peruse it when visiting my mother. Always feel like I need a Gaviscon afterwards.. Oh if I posted the online comments not just the articles in the paper it might keep you frothing for days!* However, as has happened before, you appear to be confusing the views of the DT with those of who they are citing, in this case the Tories. The Telegraph have quite a bit of access to Tory views, so were able to report what Tories on both sides of the divide are squabbling over * you seem to mention the Mail quite often which I can’t stomach at all |
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Post by mercian on Apr 27, 2023 19:44:51 GMT
From the Curtice article on the BBC website that wb61 referred us to -
"Nevertheless, each year, BBC News collects and analyses detailed voting figures to estimate the "projected national share" (PNS) - the share of the vote the parties would have won across the whole of Britain, if voters everywhere behaved in the same way as those who cast a local ballot."
What a bizarre thing to do! Since, unlike the other parts of the UK, the polity of England doesn't have simultaneous local elections - or even a common structure, trying to extrapolate each set of English local elections to the whole polity probably makes some kind of sense. But why would anyone in their right mind try to further extend that to "the whole of Britain" (which isn't even a meaningful polity in the way that England or UK are)? It's so they can play with their fancy graphics. |
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Post by mercian on Apr 27, 2023 19:52:54 GMT
and on priorities/missions (when asked as an 'open question' rather than a 'Most Important Issues' tracker??) then PS Quite a lot of 'cake and eat it' when you ask people for priorities. EG high priority for: funding public services; addressing national debt; reducing taxes and reducing spending. Maybe not that helpful a question to ask - giving choices would perhaps be better Yes that's the problem for all governments. Most people want both better public services and lower taxes. You can keep some of the people happy some of the time... I'm always surprised that Defence is such a low priority when we're in a proxy war with Russia (and probably a real one in cyberspace). |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 27, 2023 19:55:04 GMT
... The situation is being seen by the ERG as another betrayal after the Prime Minister pushed ahead with the Windsor Framework.…The 'useful idiots' ERG are no longer the force they once were and now just a small group of idiots. The whole 'bonfire of regulations' nonsense has been covered many times, going back to May's "3 buckets" Here's an article showing how Rishi is fixing the internal issue within CON (under 'new' Rishi management) and running rings around Starmer-LAB in the process
Rishi Sunak's 'unite or die' message to the Tories is slowly whipping his party into shapeinews.co.uk/opinion/rishi-sunaks-unite-or-die-message-to-the-tories-is-slowly-whipping-his-party-into-shape-2303840?ico=most_popularLAB might still try their attack ads on stuff like sewage but Starmer's Opposition Day motion backfired as due to partisan voting LAB couldn't be seen to back CON's "rewrite" of LAB's own motion. As the article states: "one Labour MP admitting that his party had been "made to look like twats""For CON MPs then "it is not the taking part but the winning that counts". Hence, with a GE now just 18mths away then self preservation combined with the very low bar set by Boris and the Truss error is perhaps lucky timing. Although Rishi will know that "winners make their own luck"So when’s crossover Trev.? When, according to your analysis do you think Tories might take the lead? |
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Post by mercian on Apr 27, 2023 19:56:13 GMT
Were the Athenians and the Romans actually more litigious than folk in other states? Perhaps that reputation is more derived from the obsession with the Classical World that so dominated the thinking of the European elite? The texts of the speeches of Athenian orators in legal cases have survived, but there are few texts of the laws of Athens and no evidence that Athens developed a juristic approach, as Rome did.
In many other states, there were codes of law, and historians are beginning to find the remaining evidence of individuals at many levels of society involved in litigation. It was certainly common in Anglo-Saxon England. A 'moot point' being something that had to be discussed at the moot. |
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Post by shevii on Apr 27, 2023 20:09:28 GMT
Yes that's the problem for all governments. Most people want both better public services and lower taxes. You can keep some of the people happy some of the time... I'm sure when I was growing up it was that you voted for one or the other and the ones in the middle decided elections by how far they felt the pendulum had swung. Then something changed with politics and politicians of all stripes pretended that you could have both and it was all about how you ran things. Probably started with New Labour's response to Thatcher after losing three elections and now set in stone. Not entirely without some truth that you can improve things with good management because clearly you can a bit but I'm a bit fed up of politicians pretending that a bit of good management will solve the problems we face today, especially when a lot of those problems are because we have failed to distribute wealth fairly. |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 27, 2023 20:20:00 GMT
You can make state investments that reduce costs and/or increase income, thus allowing better services with lower taxes. (There may at times be a bit of a lag though)
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 27, 2023 20:23:27 GMT
Yes that's the problem for all governments. Most people want both better public services and lower taxes. You can keep some of the people happy some of the time... I'm sure when I was growing up it was that you voted for one or the other and the ones in the middle decided elections by how far they felt the pendulum had swung. Then something changed with politics and politicians of all stripes pretended that you could have both and it was all about how you ran things. Probably started with New Labour's response to Thatcher after losing three elections and now set in stone. Not entirely without some truth that you can improve things with good management because clearly you can a bit but I'm a bit fed up of politicians pretending that a bit of good management will solve the problems we face today, especially when a lot of those problems are because we have failed to distribute wealth fairly. It was 4 elections and 18 long years ( shudders). |
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Post by mercian on Apr 27, 2023 20:43:41 GMT
To all, I understand that a comment of mine from a couple of days ago caused a bit of a kerfuffle. I have been asked to err on the side of caution, so here goes -
I apologise if the term I used for the 'travelling community' caused offence to anyone.
To me it is on a par with the vernacular terms for Londoner, or someone from Newcastle or Liverpool or Australia for instance. I am not specifying what those are because although I believe they are in common use and not pejorative I suppose I might be out of touch on that too. It does get difficult to keep up.
It reminds me of a story I've told before about when I was in the NHS and asked to point out a particular person. I said "She's the one who usually wears a green dress". The chap I was speaking to looked blank, and I went through contortions describing her height, approximate age and so on - everything but her complexion because I was trying to be PC. Eventually he got who I meant and said "Oh! You mean the bl*ck girl!"
NB I'm using the asterisk because though it appears that it was ok to say that at the time, about 10 years ago, I don't know if it's changed again. It would be helpful if the Guardian would publish a list of this week's euphemisms.
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Post by wb61 on Apr 27, 2023 21:05:46 GMT
To all, I understand that a comment of mine from a couple of days ago caused a bit of a kerfuffle. I have been asked to err on the side of caution, so here goes - I apologise if the term I used for the 'travelling community' caused offence to anyone. To me it is on a par with the vernacular terms for Londoner, or someone from Newcastle or Liverpool or Australia for instance. I not specifying what those are because although I believe they are in common use and not pejorative I suppose I might be out of touch on that too. It does get difficult to keep up. It reminds me of a story I've told before about when I was in the NHS and asked to point out a particular person. I said "She's the one who usually wears a green dress". The chap I was speaking to looked blank, and I went through contortions describing her height, approximate age and so on - everything but her complexion because I was trying to be PC. Eventually he got who I meant and said "Oh! You mean the bl*ck girl!" NB I'm using the asterisk because though it appears that it was ok to say that at the time, about 10 years ago, I don't know if it's changed again. It would be helpful if the Guardian would publish a list of this week's euphemisms. Whilst the word you used was, in itself, offensive I believe it was the stereotyping of such individuals based on no evidence but local gossip, and typical innuendo about that community that was a greater cause of offence. I say this in the hope that it helps bring a level of understanding. I imagine most people would object to being categorised by a negative stereotype which only foundation is rumours or gossip. |
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Post by mercian on Apr 27, 2023 21:07:33 GMT
It was based on personal experience. I should not have assumed that they are all like it.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 27, 2023 21:16:54 GMT
To all, I understand that a comment of mine from a couple of days ago caused a bit of a kerfuffle. I have been asked to err on the side of caution, so here goes - I apologise if the term I used for the 'travelling community' caused offence to anyone. To me it is on a par with the vernacular terms for Londoner, or someone from Newcastle or Liverpool or Australia for instance. I not specifying what those are because although I believe they are in common use and not pejorative I suppose I might be out of touch on that too. It does get difficult to keep up. It reminds me of a story I've told before about when I was in the NHS and asked to point out a particular person. I said "She's the one who usually wears a green dress". The chap I was speaking to looked blank, and I went through contortions describing her height, approximate age and so on - everything but her complexion because I was trying to be PC. Eventually he got who I meant and said "Oh! You mean the bl*ck girl!" NB I'm using the asterisk because though it appears that it was ok to say that at the time, about 10 years ago, I don't know if it's changed again. It would be helpful if the Guardian would publish a list of this week's euphemisms. You are being disingenuous there in pretending this happened because usage changes over the time. The phrase you used was always derogatory and understood as such even 50 years ago (I remember), and you followed it with a generalisation about that entire community. I don't think you are stupid and I think you know all that perfectly well. It is in the same category as a whole bunch of other descriptions of various groups which were commonly used in the 1970s and before (again I remember) but which always carried an insulting/dismissive connotation. I am sure you can imagine the ones I mean. Best avoid all of those. |
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Post by alec on Apr 27, 2023 21:25:44 GMT
Interesting stuff here on days lost at work from sickness from the ONS. As expected, after a decade and a half of decline, since the pandemic, sick leave has risen to hit record highs. Notably, this has not reversed in 2022, but instead kept rising sharply. The time series on the graph in the first tweet probably understates the real impact, as the historic trend was for a steady reduction. The breakdowns are interesting also. Days lost to mental health issues and musculoskeletal issues have declined since 2019, respiratory conditions saw a marked increase in 2022, but perhaps most notably, 2022 saw a very substantial rise in the 'minor illnesses' category.
This is of note, as an early McKinsey's report into the likely economic impacts of current covid policy predicted that the biggest single economic impact, which had a surprisingly large impact on productivity and thus GDP, was in fact the average 1.5 days work missed for each mild covid infection, either through direct absence or indirectly through workers needing to take leave to care for sick dependents (mainly children), which they predicted would equate to a 1.5 - 2.6% reduction in the workforce. While this was based on the US economy, these numbers from the ONS suggest that such an analysis isn't too wide of the mark.
Also notable is the finding here that workers in the care sector have among the highest rates of sick leave. Whatever happened to the clap for carers sentiments?
This cumulation of small impacts into a substantial overall hit is going to be the continuing theme of current covid policy. If you want to be collectively substantially poorer, with less money to invest in services, then allow unmitigated spread of covid. Even if it is individually a low risk with minor symptoms, it's going to significantly constrain the economy, and now we are seeing this move from prediction to reality.
Here is the thread -
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Apr 27, 2023 21:45:34 GMT
For those interested, I've just posted on the covid thread a fascinating paper which looked at ventilation in schools and sickness rates. Unsurprisngly, better ventilation is consistently correlated with significant reductions in absence, and although the research period pre-dates the covid pandemic, this replicates other findings looking specifically at covid. It also provides an element of a counterweight to the claims that persistent record absences from schools since we commenced the 'let-it-rip' covid experiment are not so linked to infections but to other social factors. We know, from multiple sources now, that if you permit viruses to circulate in schools at high levels, more children will miss school through sickness, and we also now know exactly how to reduce this. Some curious results in that paper. They looked at CO2 concentration as a proxy for ventilation rate, but also level of particulates in the room. The results were different for particulates and CO2. That doesnt altogether make sense, unless perhaps the CO2 is generated by the occupants, but particulates are environmental? They conducted their analysis in 5 different school districts in two states of the US, and the strongest correlation of days lost to illness was which school district you were in, not the concentration of CO2 or particulates. There is one graph in the paper which summarises results on a scatter graph, colour coded by district, I presume each dot is one classroom. On this you can see by eye how results in a particular district cluster in different regions of the illness/ventilation plot. Its pretty clear district 3 had the lowest ventilation rates and also lowest absence rates, while district 5 had the highest ventilation rates. On separate graphs you can see that these two districts had virtually identical absence rates. Districts 1 and 2 had intermediate average ventilation rates, but the greatest of all absence rates. Its only if you plot all the classroom results separately and then examine the correlation between ventilation and absence that there is a rather modest trend for lower absence with higher ventilation. If you looked at this data, then what you would clearly conclude is if you wanted your child to minimise their schools absences, then send them to districts 3 or 5. If you wanted to maximise absence send them to districts 1 or 2. This effects is far stronger than whether the classroom had high or low ventilation. The school districts were chosen to be in similar climate regions. There was a much stronger correlation between level of particulates in the air and absence than the 'ventilation rate' (which was derived from CO2 levels). About double. The low particulate districts were low absence districts, unlike the ventilation result which had both the highest and lowest ventilated regions scoring lowest absences. That kinda suggests the real issue was environmental particulates in different geographical regions. They note that other studies have found correlations between particulate levels and illness. Unfortunately all 5 disctricts used different methods of recording absence from school, and there is no discussion of policies which might have influenced eg how rigorously absence was investigated to determine for certain whether it was illness or truancy or with parental consent but not illness or deliberately misrepresented. That might be particularly important since the results for each district cluster so much, and so what was found could be a function of their recording of absence and school design or social attitudes in different districts, not any real effect on health. On the whole, I'd suggest they really found particulates are bad for your health, and that has been a finding in London too and is one of the drivers behind reducing number of fossil fuelled vehicles. Not sure what this has to do with contageous airborn diseases like covid?
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Post by jib on Apr 27, 2023 21:53:56 GMT
“Mrs Badenoch is one to watch should there be a Conservative leadership contest if the Tories lose the next election and Mr Sunak quits as leader.
But one of the MPs said that watering down the REUL Bill would be a problem for MPs and party members who might have supported her. The MP said: “This blows her leadership chances. She will lose a third of the party.”
The situation is being seen by the ERG as another betrayal after the Prime Minister pushed ahead with the Windsor Framework.
…
A government source took aim at previous Conservative business secretaries, telling the Telegraph: “Kemi inherited a mess in REUL when she became Business Secretary, with the Bill sinking under technicalities and legalese.
“She is a true Brexiteer, she delivered CPTPP to show the country a brave future outside of the EU, and she’s now got a grip of the process. She’s a doer and not a talker.
“This Government will pass the REUL bill and end the supremacy of EU law in the UK, and if Brexiteers want delivery they should get behind what she’s doing.””
Telegraph
There's little point in debating and revising perfectly good legislation.
Most EU Directives translated into law are reasonable and well intentioned, and this all has "righteous bonfire" written large over it.
There are more pressing priorities, such as unwinding austerity. |
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