pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 27, 2023 14:14:58 GMT
IMO it would be foolish for LAB to change Westminster's voting system given they can win an OM via FPTP. I'm not sure about the credibility of the source but bad news for LDEM (and majority of LAB members according to polling) if Starmer has changed his mind on yet another issue that many UKPR2 folks think is important. Point of detail but Starmer has not changed his mind on this - he was never in favour. It is of course staggeringly stupid, but also totally predictable. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 27, 2023 14:19:31 GMT
domjg You wouldn't càtch me putting up attention grabbing posts 
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,590
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 27, 2023 14:21:22 GMT
As others talk about the negative effect Trev has had on the board Trev himself carries on blindly putting up large, attention grabbing posts apparently oblivious to the rest of us. He appears to be trying to neutralise the board by turning it into his own blog. Careful, you'll get reported by the self-appointed forum monitor for breach of rule 27B or something. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Apr 27, 2023 14:23:59 GMT
If any of you are like me and a geek when it comes to electoral data, the commons library site is great commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8749/.
Given that we have the evil and much aligned FFTP electoral system, periodically the qu of tactical voting comes up on here. Also, the LD's declared strategy is to 'squeeze' Labour's votes in areas where supposedly they cant possibly win. I've had a look a the data from '19, which from the perspective identifying a notional 'core' Labour support is useful given the poor performance of the party in the that GE.
For the purpose of argument, its probably fair to say Labour are unlikely to win in seats where in '19 they obtained less than 20% of the vote. Now in England and Wales, there were 30 seats where labour received less than 10% of the vote, and 95 where they obtained 10-20%. Where Lab got under 10%, the LDs came second or won. Lab got 10-20%, and LD's came second and above Labour in 51 of those seats. Therefore, there are approx 81 seats in England and Wales where you can legitimately argue that Labour really don't stand a chance, and if you're priority is to ko the Tories over voting Labour you should vote tactically for the LDs.
So for these 81 seats, how successful could large scale tactical voting be. If one assumes that up to 50% of Lab voters could be persuaded to vote tactically in these seats, assuming same voter share as '19', with this level of TV, 5 of these seats switch from Con to LD - Winchester, Cheltenham, Cheadle, South Cambridgeshire and Carshalton. Now for seats where Labour got between 20-25%, there are only 2 seats, Wimbledon and Finchley where that level of TV would flip the seat to the LDs - but for a number of different reasons (many mentioned on here before) I cant see that level of TV by Labour voters and arguably Lab stand a better chance than the LDs.
Conversely, if for all the English and Welsh seats where Lab got 0-25% you had 50% of LD vote going tactically to Labour, the only extra seat Labour would get is Wimbledon.
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Post by thylacine on Apr 27, 2023 14:25:02 GMT
I believe Colin prefers the selfie of you in the sombrero 😂 |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 27, 2023 14:26:33 GMT
IMO it would be foolish for LAB to change Westminster's voting system given they can win an OM via FPTP. I'm not sure about the credibility of the source but bad news for LDEM (and majority of LAB members according to polling) if Starmer has changed his mind on yet another issue that many UKPR2 folks think is important. Point of detail but Starmer has not changed his mind on this - he was never in favour. It is of course staggeringly stupid, but also totally predictable. LAB isn't my party and I did say "I'm not sure about the credibility of the source". There is a lot of 'fake news' around these days and plenty of people just making stuff up. I trust as a LAB member and candidate that you can show the results of LAB conf motion results and anything from Starmer (pre being elected LAB leader) that shows that Starmer-LAB has always been opposed to PR. Might make a hung parliament interesting if Starmer has to rely on LDEM MP votes - given the near certain demands of LDEM to pass a King's Speech which would Starmer into #10. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,590
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 27, 2023 14:31:33 GMT
Point of detail but Starmer has not changed his mind on this - he was never in favour. It is of course staggeringly stupid, but also totally predictable. LAB isn't my party and I did say "I'm not sure about the credibility of the source". There is a lot of 'fake news' around these days and plenty of people just making stuff up. I trust as a LAB member and candidate that you can show the results of LAB conf motion results and anything from Starmer (pre being elected LAB leader) that shows that Starmer-LAB has always been opposed to PR. Might make a hung parliament interesting if Starmer has to rely on LDEM MP votes - given the near certain demands of LDEM to pass a King's Speech which would Starmer into #10. Starmer rejected the conference vote immediately after it happened (as he had signalled in advance he would). www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/24/keir-starmer-defies-call-for-changes-to-first-past-the-post-voting-system |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Apr 27, 2023 14:48:21 GMT
Oh dear
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Apr 27, 2023 14:53:54 GMT
Thug
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Apr 27, 2023 15:12:51 GMT
You brightened my afternoon steve ! |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Apr 27, 2023 15:15:29 GMT
Two different seat predictions today
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 27, 2023 15:16:17 GMT
LAB isn't my party and I did say "I'm not sure about the credibility of the source". There is a lot of 'fake news' around these days and plenty of people just making stuff up. I trust as a LAB member and candidate that you can show the results of LAB conf motion results and anything from Starmer (pre being elected LAB leader) that shows that Starmer-LAB has always been opposed to PR. Might make a hung parliament interesting if Starmer has to rely on LDEM MP votes - given the near certain demands of LDEM to pass a King's Speech which would Starmer into #10. Starmer rejected the conference vote immediately after it happened (as he had signalled in advance he would). www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/24/keir-starmer-defies-call-for-changes-to-first-past-the-post-voting-systemStarmer was elected LAB leader in Apr'20. See the lower clip from Jan'20 when he was running to be LAB leader. From the Sep'22 article: "The Labour leader said electoral reform was not a priority and refused to make it one of the party’s election manifesto pledges". Not a priority seems to have "evolved" to never? So perhaps simply a matter of a 'quibble' on the definition of "long-standing" opponent of PR? |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Apr 27, 2023 15:30:47 GMT
If a law is genuinely "redundant", then repealing it makes sense. For example the Scots law of blasphemy (last used in 1843) was finally repealed in 2021.
However, the decision not to repeal over 3,000 of those supposed redundant EU laws, suggests that Tory UK Ministers were lying about their nature : or really, really stupid : or both.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,590
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 27, 2023 15:31:35 GMT
Two different seat predictions today A 15% Labour lead over the Conservatives translates into a Labour overall majority of 10 and Starmer wants to keep FPTP ... hmm. Having said that, if the SNP issues lead to a melt down on that front, a Labour OM becomes much more likely. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 27, 2023 15:43:47 GMT
It seems that the Irish government are also suggesting to Cleverly that he take his instructions about meeting with ScotGov, and shove them up his [homophone of the Irish language].
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Post by alec on Apr 27, 2023 15:45:34 GMT
For those interested, I've just posted on the covid thread a fascinating paper which looked at ventilation in schools and sickness rates. Unsurprisngly, better ventilation is consistently correlated with significant reductions in absence, and although the research period pre-dates the covid pandemic, this replicates other findings looking specifically at covid. It also provides an element of a counterweight to the claims that persistent record absences from schools since we commenced the 'let-it-rip' covid experiment are not so linked to infections but to other social factors.
We know, from multiple sources now, that if you permit viruses to circulate in schools at high levels, more children will miss school through sickness, and we also now know exactly how to reduce this.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Apr 27, 2023 15:46:21 GMT
Two different seat predictions today A 15% Labour lead over the Conservatives translates into a Labour overall majority of 10 and Starmer wants to keep FPTP ... hmm. Having said that, if the SNP issues lead to a melt down on that front, a Labour OM becomes much more likely. I think any model that shows the SNP gaining an MP is a little suspect in current circumstances |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 27, 2023 15:48:42 GMT
Two different seat predictions today .. A 15% Labour lead over the Conservatives translates into a Labour overall majority of 10 and Starmer wants to keep FPTP ... hmm. Having said that, if the SNP issues lead to a melt down on that front, a Labour OM becomes much more likely. The UKPR numbers looks way off. The Britain Elects one is more believable if there was GE held today with CON getting close to 200 on improved polling. However, WRT to SNP->LAB seats then the 'nowcast' already shows +16 LAB gains from SNP in the Britain Elects model and in an SNP 'melt down' then CON would also benefit. The Britain Elects 'nowcast' showing CON would lose all 6 Scottish seats which would be unlikely with an SNP 'melt down' given CON are the clear ABSNP candidate in all 6 of those seats (along with a few others). Adjusting for CON keeping their seats then that would put SNP on 31. It would need to be a major 'melt down' with a lack of tactical 'Indy' voting and a very tactical ABSNP vote to see SNP drop further than that. Folks can drill down into the map. East Anglia* and SW.Eng staying mostly blue is IMO quite likely. sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/02/britain-predicts-who-would-win-election-held-todayStill 18mths to go. "It's all to play for" * LAB very likely to get "Stevenage" but even in the latest 'nowcast' then plenty of other seats that I expect will stay blue. |
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Post by moby on Apr 27, 2023 16:00:21 GMT
Point of detail but Starmer has not changed his mind on this - he was never in favour. It is of course staggeringly stupid, but also totally predictable. LAB isn't my party and I did say "I'm not sure about the credibility of the source". There is a lot of 'fake news' around these days and plenty of people just making stuff up. I trust as a LAB member and candidate that you can show the results of LAB conf motion results and anything from Starmer (pre being elected LAB leader) that shows that Starmer-LAB has always been opposed to PR. Might make a hung parliament interesting if Starmer has to rely on LDEM MP votes - given the near certain demands of LDEM to pass a King's Speech which would Starmer into #10. Its never mattered to him:- www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/25353/keir_starmer/holborn_and_st_pancras/divisions?policy=1084 |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 27, 2023 16:00:23 GMT
A 15% Labour lead over the Conservatives translates into a Labour overall majority of 10 and Starmer wants to keep FPTP ... hmm. Having said that, if the SNP issues lead to a melt down on that front, a Labour OM becomes much more likely. I think any model that shows the SNP gaining an MP is a little suspect in current circumstances The UKPR numbers look way too low for LAB using the GB wide %s they show. However in Scotland then my guess is they are showing SNP taking all 6 of the current CON seats, LDEM possibly unchanged and hence LAB gaining 5 = SNP 49 (+1) using 2019 boundaries. Who knows at this stage but it would be nice to see the %s they use to get that unlikely outcome in Scotland (they show 3.3% for SNP but not the Scottish breakdown for the GB wide parties) It would be handy if they did a 'drill down' map similar to Britain Elects (and Electoral Calculus - who will likely update their model soon and tend to be more generous towards LAB) |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 27, 2023 16:11:01 GMT
A 15% Labour lead over the Conservatives translates into a Labour overall majority of 10 and Starmer wants to keep FPTP ... hmm. Having said that, if the SNP issues lead to a melt down on that front, a Labour OM becomes much more likely. I think any model that shows the SNP gaining an MP is a little suspect in current circumstances
Whether there is anything of this affair that becomes public knowledge in time for rebuilding prior to the UK GE is another area of uncertainty. However, anyone currently projecting, from current circumstances, that the SNP will hold most of their MP seats at the next UK GE may be interested in the extraordinarily discounted price I am offering to sell the Erskine Bridge for. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Apr 27, 2023 16:14:40 GMT
Two different seat predictions today A 15% Labour lead over the Conservatives translates into a Labour overall majority of 10 and Starmer wants to keep FPTP ... hmm. Having said that, if the SNP issues lead to a melt down on that front, a Labour OM becomes much more likely. This is based on an Uniform Swing Model. Putting the same numbers into Electoral Calculus gives Labour 406 seats and a majority of 162, so I'm not very impressed by the new owner of UKPR. |
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Post by James E on Apr 27, 2023 16:20:19 GMT
Re UKPR's Uniform National Swing Model.
I agree, it is very amateurish.
If we do see a large Con>Lab swing, I would expect similar effects to GE1997, with smaller swings in the Labour-held seats and larger ones in the marginals and longer range targets. In 1997, UNS from Con>Lab was exactly 10%, but in the target seats it was in the range of 9% to 18%. A swing of around 13% (give or take a few points) was the norm where Labour were attacking.
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 27, 2023 16:22:00 GMT
"The polls are unmistakably narrowing. Labour’s lead has fallen from 21 points at the start of January to 16 points as of the start of this week. It’s a decline, but let’s put it in context: they’re still outsized numbers."
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Post by alec on Apr 27, 2023 16:35:42 GMT
The UKPR swing model; clearly they haven't got the hang of the upbeat yet. Those Labour seat numbers suggest the emphasis is wrong.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 27, 2023 16:35:55 GMT
While that is true, Adam Bienkov's article suggests that Starmer's current attempt to portray himself as having a “long-standing view against PR” is contradicted by his previous comments - unless, of course, Starmer has a short term interpretation of what "long term" means!
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 27, 2023 16:39:21 GMT
The UKPR swing model; clearly they haven't got the hang of the upbeat yet. Those Labour seat numbers suggest the emphasis is wrong. |
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Post by wb61 on Apr 27, 2023 16:54:25 GMT
The UKPR swing model; clearly they haven't got the hang of the upbeat yet. Those Labour seat numbers suggest the emphasis is wrong. amongst my favourite music styles along with Jump Jive |
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Post by hireton on Apr 27, 2023 17:00:52 GMT
Latest Deltapoll of Westminster VI:
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Post by shevii on Apr 27, 2023 17:18:10 GMT
Point of detail but Starmer has not changed his mind on this - he was never in favour. It is of course staggeringly stupid, but also totally predictable. Of course there's a video out there with him at least hinting he was in favour even if he doesn't specifically mention PR: |
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