jib
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Post by jib on May 8, 2023 12:05:33 GMT
@trevor My view is based on talking to my neighbours, people in the area and election candidates. I've lived here for 30 years and it's clear which way the wind is blowing. edit: everyone here knows Labour have zero chance so the ABT vote won't be split. - your view that local people understand the tactical situation and take it into account is psephologically sound. EC's calculations, being polling based, are much too generous to Labour in areas where the Lib Dems are clearly the more likely competitor to the Tories, as I have been saying for some time. Here for example, is EC's 'prediction' for Tiverton and Honiton: Con 38.9%, Lab 34.1%, LD 11.1%, Green 6.2%. In reality, when put to the test in the by-election the Lib Dems won it at a canter. Here is an even dafter example: They have Central Devon being won by Labour 37%, Con 35.9%, LD 11.8%. In the Mid Devon council elections the Lib Dems won 33 of the 42 seats and Labour won none. There is simply no basis of Labour strength in that area on which to produce a result like EC's prediction, which is frankly garbage. Your gut instinct is likely to be much closer to the truth than EC's flawed methodology. Sorry, I simply don't believe that will be the case. The EC prediction of 16 seats for Lib Dems looks sound to me and I expect them to be very heavily squeezed by the Presidential Sunak vs Starmer focus of the media, social media etc. Time will tell, but I suspect the Lib Dems will do even worse than their 2019 grievance based campaign. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 8, 2023 12:06:40 GMT
And in case we forget the other big issue of the local elections - voter ID - some suggestions from the Electoral Reform Society: "Many of the stories we heard were of voters trying to use IDs that are acceptable in many other areas of life – from a police officer who was told their warrant card (government-issued photographic ID that proves their powers as a police officer) wasn’t acceptable, to a nurse whose NHS-issued photo ID was deemed insufficient by polling station staff. This suggests that expanding the list of acceptable IDs, including non-photographic ID and even poll cards, as we and many others have called for, could prevent many voters from being turned away. We also heard stories of people turning up to vote with a family member where one of them had ID and the other was turned away. In these situations, a simple vouching scheme, as used in Canada, would enable the voter with ID to vouch for the identity of the voter without. Ministers rejected both these ideas when the policy was debated in parliament. As a result, we now have one of the most restrictive voter ID regimes – far more restrictive than many US states, where election rules are regularly used to suppress voter turnout for political gain. For the UK, it’s not too late. Ministers have committed to reviewing the impact of the policy after these elections. In the coming weeks and months, we’ll get data and analysis that will provide a fuller (if not complete) picture of the impact of these rules on our democracy." www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/08/england-local-elections-voter-id-democracy |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 8, 2023 12:16:32 GMT
johntel - your view that local people understand the tactical situation and take it into account is psephologically sound. EC's calculations, being polling based, are much too generous to Labour in areas where the Lib Dems are clearly the more likely competitor to the Tories, as I have been saying for some time. Here for example, is EC's 'prediction' for Tiverton and Honiton: Con 38.9%, Lab 34.1%, LD 11.1%, Green 6.2%. In reality, when put to the test in the by-election the Lib Dems won it at a canter. Here is an even dafter example: They have Central Devon being won by Labour 37%, Con 35.9%, LD 11.8%. In the Mid Devon council elections the Lib Dems won 33 of the 42 seats and Labour won none. There is simply no basis of Labour strength in that area on which to produce a result like EC's prediction, which is frankly garbage. Your gut instinct is likely to be much closer to the truth than EC's flawed methodology. Sorry, I simply don't believe that will be the case. The EC prediction of 16 seats for Lib Dems looks sound to me and I expect them to be very heavily squeezed by the Presidential Sunak vs Starmer focus of the media, social media etc. Time will tell, but I suspect the Lib Dems will do even worse than their 2019 grievance based campaign. I think your loathing of the Lib Dems might be influencing your judgement a little. However, I didn't say the Lib Dems would necessarily win a seat like Central Devon, just that the voting history of the area, including the 2023 elections, strongly suggests they will either be first or second and Labour will be a distant third, contrary to the EC model. Political reality also dictates this. Labour will have few activists in that area, and those that do exist will be directed to help out in Plymouth or Exeter. As a non-target seat it will receive no additional funding or support. That is the reality of how elections are run and all that applies to the Surrey seats too. |
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Post by johntel on May 8, 2023 12:21:17 GMT
With regards the defunct Mole Valley, it should be correctly referred to as Dorking and Horley following the boundary review, electoral calculus do indeed have the nominal result as follows; Party Predicted Votes Predicted Share CON 17,970 38.4% LAB 11,453 24.5% LIB 10,739 22.9% Green 2,963 6.3% Reform 2,848 6.1% Well I'm continuing to call it Mole Valley, I objected to the name change. It's the equivalent of renaming the UK as 'England and Scotland'. By the way Electoral Calculus don't seem to be aware of the ward boundary changes. And I'm prepared to bet anyone any amount they like that the Lib Dems will get more votes than Labour. |
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Post by johntel on May 8, 2023 12:32:45 GMT
With regards the defunct Mole Valley, it should be correctly referred to as Dorking and Horley following the boundary review, electoral calculus do indeed have the nominal result as follows; Party Predicted Votes Predicted Share CON 17,970 38.4% LAB 11,453 24.5% LIB 10,739 22.9% Green 2,963 6.3% Reform 2,848 6.1% @trevor jib OK, my prediction for Mole Valley: Turnout will be lower than last time. CON 40% LAB 12% LIB 41% Green 5% Reform 2% My only worry is that some of the incomers from Horley may misguidedly vote Labour which could be enough to tilt the balance. |
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Post by James E on May 8, 2023 12:35:42 GMT
@trevor My view is based on talking to my neighbours, people in the area and election candidates. I've lived here for 30 years and it's clear which way the wind is blowing. edit: everyone here knows Labour have zero chance so the ABT vote won't be split. - your view that local people understand the tactical situation and take it into account is psephologically sound. EC's calculations, being polling based, are much too generous to Labour in areas where the Lib Dems are clearly the more likely competitor to the Tories, as I have been saying for some time. Here for example, is EC's 'prediction' for Tiverton and Honiton: Con 38.9%, Lab 34.1%, LD 11.1%, Green 6.2%. In reality, when put to the test in the by-election the Lib Dems won it at a canter. Here is an even dafter example: They have Central Devon being won by Labour 37%, Con 35.9%, LD 11.8%. In the Mid Devon council elections the Lib Dems won 33 of the 42 seats and Labour won none. There is simply no basis of Labour strength in that area on which to produce a result like EC's prediction, which is frankly garbage. Your gut instinct is likely to be much closer to the truth than EC's flawed methodology. Mole Valley looks like a decent LibDem longshot, as they are in a strong 2nd place as of 2019. Devon Central is different though, as Labour held 25% to the LDs' 15% last time. I seem to remeber Davey saying that he would not be targeting those seats where the LDs were behind Labour in 2019. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 8, 2023 12:49:55 GMT
johntel - your view that local people understand the tactical situation and take it into account is psephologically sound. EC's calculations, being polling based, are much too generous to Labour in areas where the Lib Dems are clearly the more likely competitor to the Tories, as I have been saying for some time. Here for example, is EC's 'prediction' for Tiverton and Honiton: Con 38.9%, Lab 34.1%, LD 11.1%, Green 6.2%. In reality, when put to the test in the by-election the Lib Dems won it at a canter. Here is an even dafter example: They have Central Devon being won by Labour 37%, Con 35.9%, LD 11.8%. In the Mid Devon council elections the Lib Dems won 33 of the 42 seats and Labour won none. There is simply no basis of Labour strength in that area on which to produce a result like EC's prediction, which is frankly garbage. Your gut instinct is likely to be much closer to the truth than EC's flawed methodology. Mole Valley looks like a decent LibDem longshot, as they are in a strong 2nd place as of 2019. Devon Central is different though, as Labour held 25% to the LDs' 15% last time. I seem to remeber Davey saying that he would not be targeting those seats where the LDs were behind Labour in 2019. I'll bet he has a rethink when he looks at the locals. I am certain Labour will make no effort to win that seat. There are better prospects in Plymouth and Cornwall. Edit: I note that EC's local election prediction had Mid Devon Council as a Conservative majority. They actually managed 5 out of 42 seats. |
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Post by jimjam on May 8, 2023 12:50:35 GMT
Neil, As per James E and my posts yesterday lets see where the LDs are at the end of June.
I would guess 2-3% up on recent polls, perhaps around 13%, as some of the tactical voting shift will stick.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 8, 2023 12:54:54 GMT
crossbat11 Rishi Sunak's rarely seen. Unless to get his card that's green. Heats his pool to 30° While half the people starve and freeze. Used to be a merchant banker Now he's just a total... Can't think of a last word can anyone help out! flanker....someone who comes round the outside to get to the front. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 8, 2023 13:02:25 GMT
By the way Steve you need a new leader. The only rhymes I can think of for Davey are wavy and gravy.  Edit: and navy, but that isn't helping. no, that works: There once was a liberal called Davey, who wanted a bit of the gravey. So he voted to hang, with the the cameron gang, And ended up coloured quite navy. |
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Post by somerjohn on May 8, 2023 13:03:13 GMT
Crossbat: "Still raining here, but at least the nearby Ship Inn is now open!"
What a pleasure once again to read your gently teasing but insightful prose. There couldn't be a greater contrast to the spiteful, self-aggrandising jargonese that too often infects these pages.
Your mention of the Ship Inn and the rain led me to ponder (as I sit in the Mediterranean sunshine, watching a sparrow hoovering up the breadcrumbs scattered after our long, mildly boozy lunch) who of the motley UKPR2 crew I'd rush to join on a murky May Monday in the Ship, and who I'd flee from in horror. I have my own ideas...
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 8, 2023 13:07:32 GMT
johntel - your view that local people understand the tactical situation and take it into account is psephologically sound. EC's calculations, being polling based, are much too generous to Labour in areas where the Lib Dems are clearly the more likely competitor to the Tories, as I have been saying for some time. Here for example, is EC's 'prediction' for Tiverton and Honiton: Con 38.9%, Lab 34.1%, LD 11.1%, Green 6.2%. In reality, when put to the test in the by-election the Lib Dems won it at a canter. Here is an even dafter example: They have Central Devon being won by Labour 37%, Con 35.9%, LD 11.8%. In the Mid Devon council elections the Lib Dems won 33 of the 42 seats and Labour won none. There is simply no basis of Labour strength in that area on which to produce a result like EC's prediction, which is frankly garbage. Your gut instinct is likely to be much closer to the truth than EC's flawed methodology. Mole Valley looks like a decent LibDem longshot, as they are in a strong 2nd place as of 2019. Devon Central is different though, as Labour held 25% to the LDs' 15% last time. I seem to remeber Davey saying that he would not be targeting those seats where the LDs were behind Labour in 2019. Any chance you source that section please. Quite a lot of seats where LAB jumped to 2nd place in GE'19 that used to be LDEM strongholds. I mentioned SW.Eng t'other day. Taking Tiverton and Honiton then LDEM came 3rd in GE'19 but I would expect LDEM will want to see if they actually keep a by-election gain though the next GE rather than make way for LAB in that one. Taking a different example from EC then St.Ives is perhaps the most "obvious" place for LDEM to try to recoup a GE presence in their old heartland of "proper" SW.Eng but LAB might be the "CON enabler" in that one? www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=St%20IvesMy "guess" would be that historic ABCON tactical voting in St.Ives continues to limit the split in the ABCON vote. Also in the specific case of St.Ives then RUK might well split the RoC vote enough to mean LDEM win that seat on <50% of the vote. Obviously currently LAB seats will likely stay LAB plenty of other seats in SW.Eng could be argued as either LDEM or LAB as the best placed ABCON. Those of us who have experienced the "ground-breaking" LDEM resurgence in every LE and Westminster by-election since 2015 will know LDEM folks tend to get very excited about their prospects after LEs and Westminster by-elections. IIRC we usually also see a bit of a polling "bounce" for LDEM in the weeks following LDEM getting a bit of press. Who knows. Perhaps this time it will be different and LDEM's resurgence will last into and through a GE?
"History doesn't repeat itself but it does often rhyme" (not that I'll bother wasting my time with a LDEM poem stating all the historic examples of resurgence that died in a GE)  |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 8, 2023 13:22:09 GMT
Neil, As per James E my posts yesterday lets see where the LDs are at the end of June. I would guess 2-3% up on recent polls, perhaps around 13%, as some of the tactical voting shift will stick. LDEM VI usually sees a lot of churn but the main beneficiary of that since GE'19 has been LAB - who are the best placed ABCON in most seats in E&W So in most areas then any "sticking" to LDEM of tactical ABCON voting will come from LAB VI -> LDEM VI (some of which will probably be LDEM'19 "going home" as there has been very little CON/LAB'19 ->LDEM VI) R&W started to show a bit of a shift in LDEM "loyalty" in the polls leading up to the LEs. LDEM's usually high churn reducing so that their VI "loyalty" from GE'19 has been increasing (eg 69% last week) leading to them getting to the dizzy heights of 12% in R&W's last headline VI. redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-30-april-2023/NB Other 'shifts' mask the overall headline VI changes. Might be some lazy assumptions that CON'19->LDEM VI and hence why it is important to look at the party-party changes in the x-breaks using polling of large and representative samples rather than really on a "gut feel". Although just IMO of course |
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Post by James E on May 8, 2023 13:28:17 GMT
For a post Local Elections boost for the LDs, see the polls before and after those of 2 May 2019 - linked below. LibDem VI Before Local Elections: 7, 10, 8 6, 8,11,13: Average 9% Lib Dem VI after Local Elections: 11,16,14,18, 11,13,15 : Average 14% Most of this came from Labour who were down by 3 points over the same polls. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_electionLooking at more recent years, they got a 2 point boost in 2021, and 1 point in 2022. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 8, 2023 13:36:17 GMT
With regards the defunct Mole Valley, it should be correctly referred to as Dorking and Horley following the boundary review, electoral calculus do indeed have the nominal result as follows; Party Predicted Votes Predicted Share CON 17,970 38.4% LAB 11,453 24.5% LIB 10,739 22.9% Green 2,963 6.3% Reform 2,848 6.1% @trevor jib OK, my prediction for Mole Valley: Turnout will be lower than last time. CON 40% (+1.6%)LAB 12% (-12.5%)
LIB 41% (+18.1%)
Green 5% (-1.3%)Reform 2% (-4.1%)
Total RoC = 42% (-2.5%)
Total LoC = 58% (+4.3%) My only worry is that some of the incomers from Horley may misguidedly vote Labour which could be enough to tilt the balance. Could be a higher turnout from Dorks LDEM than Horley LAB and Rishi-Braverman ensuring RUK have no 'raison d'être' to split the RoC vote. Hence your numbers seem "plausible" for sure. I note LAB+LIB+Green = 58% but if we use the assumption of 50% tactical vote then: LIB 41% + LAB 12%/2 + Green 5%/2 = 49.5% Assuming the other 50% of ABCON abstain given they don't get to vote for their preferred party then CON % would move up. Hence a useful example of why "paper candidates" might, in some cases, be little different to "pulled candidates". However, as we saw with some LDEM candidates in the LEs then voters might not know you are a "paper candidate" and by standing then a CON candidate takes seat (or one of the two in the example of Hemel Hempstead). NB It's a massive task to change my model to the new boundaries so quite happy to use the old ones. Sadly that will mean specific seats that are having boundary changes will be harder to predict and I mention that specifically because in some seats the "tactical voting" might be trickier as well - and in some seats (eg plenty in SW.Eng) then it's not obvious who the better placed ABCON party is anyway. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 8, 2023 13:42:23 GMT
Popped in to say that the king visited a slightly windswept Bexhill today so I had the chance to once again run after the procession. Unlike London, no police in evidence. Attachment DeletedAll good fun and we cheered the king. You had to ask, how did this differ in real political substance to the bash in London? |
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Post by graham on May 8, 2023 13:58:46 GMT
@trevor My view is based on talking to my neighbours, people in the area and election candidates. I've lived here for 30 years and it's clear which way the wind is blowing. edit: everyone here knows Labour have zero chance so the ABT vote won't be split. - your view that local people understand the tactical situation and take it into account is psephologically sound. EC's calculations, being polling based, are much too generous to Labour in areas where the Lib Dems are clearly the more likely competitor to the Tories, as I have been saying for some time. Here for example, is EC's 'prediction' for Tiverton and Honiton: Con 38.9%, Lab 34.1%, LD 11.1%, Green 6.2%. In reality, when put to the test in the by-election the Lib Dems won it at a canter. Here is an even dafter example: They have Central Devon being won by Labour 37%, Con 35.9%, LD 11.8%. In the Mid Devon council elections the Lib Dems won 33 of the 42 seats and Labour won none. There is simply no basis of Labour strength in that area on which to produce a result like EC's prediction, which is frankly garbage. Your gut instinct is likely to be much closer to the truth than EC's flawed methodology. By elections ,however, are more akin to Local Elections. I seriously doubt that the LDs would have won that seat had a GE been held on that day. I do agree that the EC predictions lack credibility. |
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Post by alec on May 8, 2023 14:05:40 GMT
Fairly typical stuff here, from Labour - www.theguardian.com/society/2023/may/08/labour-considering-higher-taxes-foreign-buyers-uk-homesThere's nothing bad in here - Sunak and Conservative PMs before him have all sat on their hands with the housing crisis, and the measures proposed here are fine, as far as they go. But we seem to be back at the timid New Labour stage. So the article says this - "The ideas, yet to be confirmed but expected to be adopted by Labour at the next election, follow a huge increase in the number of UK homes bought by overseas investors, often from Asia, pricing out local buyers." And Labour's response appears to be to limit overseas buyers to just 50% of properties in a development and charge them an extra 2% stamp duty. Like I say, that's OK, but why not just ban overseas purchasers of property? Or stipulate that properties must be either lived in permanently or available for long term rent at market rates? Why piss around, when we have a housing crisis? It's frustrating, tbh. They see the issues, but lack the courage to fully implement the solutions. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 8, 2023 14:07:40 GMT
Crossbat: "Still raining here, but at least the nearby Ship Inn is now open!"What a pleasure once again to read your gently teasing but insightful prose. There couldn't be a greater contrast to the spiteful, self-aggrandising jargonese that too often infects these pages. Your mention of the Ship Inn and the rain led me to ponder (as I sit in the Mediterranean sunshine, watching a sparrow hoovering up the breadcrumbs scattered after our long, mildly boozy lunch) who of the motley UKPR2 crew I'd rush to join on a murky May Monday in the Ship, and who I'd flee from in horror. I have my own ideas... Thanks, Somerjohn. It's good to see that you're still dropping into the site. Until the last few days, I'd neither posted nor lurked since last year, so didn't know if you were still participating or not. I'm reassured that your civilised and knowledgeable presence pertains. I will raise a glass to you in the Ship Inn tonight. Probably a Northumbria Ale from the local Hadrian Brewery. In return, while you are enjoying the Mediterranean sunshine, spare a thought for me as I gaze out of the rain-spattered windowpane in our seaside cottage, gazing out over the slate grey sea and sky. It has a sort of bleak beauty though. A silence and emptiness broken only by the mournful and booming sound of the sea. Good for the soul. Peace. |
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Post by shevii on May 8, 2023 14:17:09 GMT
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jib
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Post by jib on May 8, 2023 14:22:38 GMT
johntel - your view that local people understand the tactical situation and take it into account is psephologically sound. EC's calculations, being polling based, are much too generous to Labour in areas where the Lib Dems are clearly the more likely competitor to the Tories, as I have been saying for some time. Here for example, is EC's 'prediction' for Tiverton and Honiton: Con 38.9%, Lab 34.1%, LD 11.1%, Green 6.2%. In reality, when put to the test in the by-election the Lib Dems won it at a canter. Here is an even dafter example: They have Central Devon being won by Labour 37%, Con 35.9%, LD 11.8%. In the Mid Devon council elections the Lib Dems won 33 of the 42 seats and Labour won none. There is simply no basis of Labour strength in that area on which to produce a result like EC's prediction, which is frankly garbage. Your gut instinct is likely to be much closer to the truth than EC's flawed methodology. Mole Valley looks like a decent LibDem longshot, as they are in a strong 2nd place as of 2019. Devon Central is different though, as Labour held 25% to the LDs' 15% last time. I seem to remeber Davey saying that he would not be targeting those seats where the LDs were behind Labour in 2019. If there is a Gentleman's agreement between Starmer and Davey, then so be it. With regards Dorking & Horley then I accept the Lib Dems would be the only party to realistically beat the Tories. However, I will be massively surprised if the Lib Dems come within 10 of displacing the SNP from their Westminster (HoC) benches. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 8, 2023 14:31:23 GMT
johntel - your view that local people understand the tactical situation and take it into account is psephologically sound. EC's calculations, being polling based, are much too generous to Labour in areas where the Lib Dems are clearly the more likely competitor to the Tories, as I have been saying for some time. Here for example, is EC's 'prediction' for Tiverton and Honiton: Con 38.9%, Lab 34.1%, LD 11.1%, Green 6.2%. In reality, when put to the test in the by-election the Lib Dems won it at a canter. Here is an even dafter example: They have Central Devon being won by Labour 37%, Con 35.9%, LD 11.8%. In the Mid Devon council elections the Lib Dems won 33 of the 42 seats and Labour won none. There is simply no basis of Labour strength in that area on which to produce a result like EC's prediction, which is frankly garbage. Your gut instinct is likely to be much closer to the truth than EC's flawed methodology. By elections ,however, are more akin to Local Elections. I seriously doubt that the LDs would have won that seat had a GE been held on that day. I do agree that the EC predictions lack credibility. Entirely agree that, although post-by-election with a sitting MP they will have a chance despite Tiverton and Honiton being one of the Conservatives stronger areas in Devon historically. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 8, 2023 15:06:16 GMT
The Catch-22 of Housing covered in the below piece: Sunak pledges to deliver as he comes under pressure over housebuilding policy
www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/simon-clarke-prime-minister-labour-government-keir-starmer-b1079569
The LE results do show that "dropping housebuilding" didn't stop CON losing a lot of councillors in S.England and hence there is truth in: "In these results, there is one theme that stands out above all others for me is that we cannot out-Nimby the Liberal Democrats and the Greens"However, that is where the 'Catch-22' comes in and why allowing ever more NIMBY councils to block housing is not going to solve the problem but only central HMG changes will. LDEM and Green NIMBYism will spread until we reach a point not dissimilar from Scotland v UK (or UK v EU back when UK was in the EU). The smaller polity can always blame the larger one when the smaller one is run by a different party to the bigger one. Hence there are only two, very different solutions: A/ Central HMG remove powers from the smaller polities and force housing on the NIMBYs (although ideally ensuring the 'right houses in the right places' rather than big builders building the 'wrong houses in the wrong places'). Local Councils become effectively pointless and maybe even cease to exist. B/ Devo-Max where central HMG "wash their hands" of housing policy and leave the NIMBYs to deal with housing as they see fit (provided they get sufficient legal and tax/debt raising powers to deal with housing) The housing thread would be the place for the detailed discussion of the aspects within A and B. In many cases the policy would be the same (eg 'Land Value Capture" tax that ensures a large % of the profit from land value uplift goes to the local area rather than the land owner). CON have kicked the issue into the long grass and I expect Rishi to leave it there. However, instead of grasping a #nobrainer then Starmer-LAB are 'tinkering' Tory policy rather than planning any radical change. The 'trough' of money from big builders and others who benefit from the rigged housing system in UK will happily feed Red* pigs as well as Blue pigs. The #nobrainer for the 'vested interests' is to hedge your bets and feed money to both Tory options. * Potentially with Orange piglites in tow. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 8, 2023 15:11:16 GMT
Any notable policies where a LAB HMG would be different to CON HMG? I think there would be changes of emphasis. labour was very much more successful in its last term in office in managing th economy than has been a conservative government. However on most central issues, their stated policies are very similar. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 8, 2023 15:17:40 GMT
Thanks. Somebody else mentioned this site to me but, as yet, I haven't had a closer look. I'm still holding out for something a little less pricey and, as is often the case with these sorts of things, I'm very much reliant on a lot of grace and many favours. There are some irons in the fire but I haven't ruled out breaking Mrs H's piggy bank to finance a black market purchase! The devil drives when needs must, after all. My warmest iron in the fire is my financial adviser. He is Mr Contacts in many ways and has some pretty high profile sporting clients, including pro footballers. The only catch is that he is an avid Birmingham City fan. My pension is in his hands too!! Shame Brighton didn't make the Final. I'd befriended a couple of BHA season ticket holders at the quarter final against Grimsby. They very kindly sorted me a ticket for the semi final against United at Wembley. They might well have been my saviour for the final but, alas, it wasn't to be. An all Mancs Final now. Drat. I blame both Danny Wellbeck and Solly March! |
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Post by johntel on May 8, 2023 15:49:58 GMT
@trevor jib OK, my prediction for Mole Valley: Turnout will be lower than last time. CON 40% (+1.6%)LAB 12% (-12.5%)
LIB 41% (+18.1%)
Green 5% (-1.3%)Reform 2% (-4.1%)
Total RoC = 42% (-2.5%)
Total LoC = 58% (+4.3%) My only worry is that some of the incomers from Horley may misguidedly vote Labour which could be enough to tilt the balance. Could be a higher turnout from Dorks LDEM than Horley LAB and Rishi-Braverman ensuring RUK have no 'raison d'être' to split the RoC vote. Hence your numbers seem "plausible" for sure. I note LAB+LIB+Green = 58% but if we use the assumption of 50% tactical vote then: LIB 41% + LAB 12%/2 + Green 5%/2 = 49.5% Assuming the other 50% of ABCON abstain given they don't get to vote for their preferred party then CON % would move up. Hence a useful example of why "paper candidates" might, in some cases, be little different to "pulled candidates". However, as we saw with some LDEM candidates in the LEs then voters might not know you are a "paper candidate" and by standing then a CON candidate takes seat (or one of the two in the example of Hemel Hempstead). NB It's a massive task to change my model to the new boundaries so quite happy to use the old ones. Sadly that will mean specific seats that are having boundary changes will be harder to predict and I mention that specifically because in some seats the "tactical voting" might be trickier as well - and in some seats (eg plenty in SW.Eng) then it's not obvious who the better placed ABCON party is anyway. In those places it probably makes sense to apportion the expected ABCON vote across the other parties in proportion to their previous vote share. |
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on May 8, 2023 15:54:59 GMT
This is the simplest definition I've seen:- Nationalism is an ideology that emphasizes loyalty, devotion, or allegiance to a nation or nation-state and holds that such obligations outweigh other individual or group interests. So I'd say your position is that your 'group' interests are those of the Scots? That to me is a pretty selfish philosophy. It's as if you are saying the current structures doen't work, (agreed by me) but your response to the issue is the problem (for me) because when all is said and done it is to go your own way and leave the rest of us behind instead of looking to solutions that benefit all of us, (current polity). Llafur has always put 'class' before 'nation' and that stance seems to have always been successful in Wales but there are members of Llafur who do want independence. The experience of one such member campaigning during the Scottish referendum is illuminating. Perhaps a change to a more inclusive approach may actually benefit us all? nation.cymru/opinion/why-the-welsh-independence-movement-needs-labour-supporters-to-win/
Ireland might have been quite happy to take a share of any extra cash going around, not to mention the rust belt in southern Belgium/northern France. |
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on May 8, 2023 15:58:48 GMT
"The pig picks the noodle soup" must be a reference to Cameron.
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Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 8, 2023 16:01:29 GMT
Labour 41% (-4)Conservative 29% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 16% (+4)Reform UK 5% (-2) Green 4% (–) Scottish National Party 3% (+1) Other 1% (–) Notable change in bold redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-7-may-2023/PS Although inspection of the x-breaks does show some subtlety in the changes CON'19 x-break CON: 55% (-2) DK: 14% (+4) RUK: 7% (-3) and a shuffle amongst the CON'19 defection to the 'dark side' which mostly explains the LAB->LDEM shift in the headline VI LAB: 14% (-4) LDEM: 7% (+5) For LAB'19 then defections to LDEM now 6% (+3) with not much change elsewhere LDEM'19 loyalty had risen into the LEs and unchanged at 69%
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Post by shevii on May 8, 2023 16:12:21 GMT
Thanks. Somebody else mentioned this site to me but, as yet, I haven't had a closer look. I'm still holding out for something a little less pricey and, as is often the case with these sorts of things, I'm very much reliant on a lot of grace and many favours. There are some irons in the fire but I haven't ruled out breaking Mrs H's piggy bank to finance a black market purchase! The devil drives when needs must, after all. My warmest iron in the fire is my financial adviser. He is Mr Contacts in many ways and has some pretty high profile sporting clients, including pro footballers. The only catch is that he is an avid Birmingham City fan. My pension is in his hands too!! Shame Brighton didn't make the Final. I'd befriended a couple of BHA season ticket holders at the quarter final against Grimsby. They very kindly sorted me a ticket for the semi final against United at Wembley. They might well have been my saviour for the final but, alas, it wasn't to be. An all Mancs Final now. Drat. I blame both Danny Wellbeck and Solly March! Also twitter seems to have a few threads (including face value stuff) but I guess none of this you can be sure of getting in on the day and they might just have seen you coming a mile off (just like Starmer!) but that would be part of the ending to a fantastic story if you had an adventure even if you didn't get in, especially if you ended up in a police cell. I bet Starmer could pledge you a ticket what with you being one of his biggest fans :-) Back in the day a schoolmate who wanted to go to Chelsea persuaded me to do a 2 in 1 turnstile for a discount going into the hands of the turnstile operator, I wasn't that keen but he was sure it would work and it did so they must all have been at it in those days! These days just one of me is about the limit for the Wigan Athletic turnstiles... |
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