steve
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Post by steve on May 8, 2023 7:52:42 GMT
catmanjeff Well not exactly Tennyson Let me have a go Keir Starmer Dad was a farmer. Actually he was a toolmaker. But that didn't rhyme.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 8, 2023 7:56:01 GMT
If brexitanians did Chinese takeaway menus  |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 8, 2023 8:23:12 GMT
I'd thought I'd share this. I asked the AI in Bing to write a short poem about Keir Starmer: "He leads the Labour Party with a vision To win the next election and govern He was a lawyer and a prosecutor Now he's a politician and a leader He fights for justice, human rights and peace He wants to end austerity and increase The public ownership of rail and utilities The freedom of movement within the EU countries He faces challenges from left and right He tries to unify his party and unite The voters who are tired of Brexit and Covid The workers who are struggling to make a living He is Keir Starmer, the knight of the realm He is Keir Starmer, the man at the helm" Aside from the contents being highly questionable, that is terrible poetry. Maybe there is hope for humanity yet. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 8, 2023 8:39:38 GMT
It's raining here on the Northumbrian coast so I have nothing better to do at the moment but to participate in the doggerel political poetry competition that is currently taking place on UKPR2. I'll start you off with an opening line and would be interested in line by line additions from various posters. First line:-
Rishi Sunak started life as a merchant banker
I'm looking for rhyming couplets rather than iambic pentameters.
I'm expecting great things from Steve here
😁😉
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Post by John Chanin on May 8, 2023 8:44:21 GMT
"Nationalism" isn't a "political philosophy". There are certainly political philosophies which adopt a concept of nation which consist of othering on imaginary racist or ethnic or religious lines. It can also mean simply people living in a particular geographic area wanting political self-determination for a polity who continue to use a rather imprecise and dated term. Indeed, using "four nations" as a descriptor for the UK is itself an indicator that you really haven't thought seriously about this. For example, the Irish "nation" exists mainly outwith the UK. [1]
You wholly ignore those people who consider themselves as part of a British Nation. Those who so identify are just as much "nationalists" as those who consider themselves English, Welsh or Scots. Then there are those who consider themselves to have multiple identities - eg more than one of English/British/European. Life is far more complex than in your simplistic view.
Nations don't require to be states, nor does a state require to represent a nation. The 19th century term "nation state" simply reflects the strategy of rulers through the ages to require commonality among the ruled, enabling othering to be more easily deployed, and to make them easier to control. "Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia".
What was being discussed was the best arrangements for governance in this archipelago. Working with Ireland, Man, Jersey and Guernsey is just as important to me as any other links. For some reason, you ignore that dimension and consider that retaining the current UK as the internationally recognised state is the best solution (although not for whom). At the same time, you clearly don't think that Scotland is a net beneficiary of the UK Union, else you would not have said that, once outwith those constraints, it would not reunite.
We are both supporters of political union, in that we want to be in the political and economic union of the EU. What you don't explain is why the component parts of the UK are better served by the UK being the member state, instead of its component polities being members in their own right. The Benelux and Vizegrad states are independent members of the EU, they also work together in areas of mutual benefit. The Nordic Council members are all in EU or EFTA but work together in many areas. The Council of the Isles provides an initial model for how this archipelago could work together as independent members.
Anent "blindness" - mote and beam!
[1] Indeed if you consider those who identify as Irish, there are more outwith the island, than in it! This is the simplest definition I've seen:- Nationalism is an ideology that emphasizes loyalty, devotion, or allegiance to a nation or nation-state and holds that such obligations outweigh other individual or group interests. So I'd say your position is that your 'group' interests are those of the Scots? That to me is a pretty selfish philosophy. It's as if you are saying the current structures doen't work, (agreed by me) but your response to the issue is the problem (for me) because when all is said and done it is to go your own way and leave the rest of us behind instead of looking to solutions that benefit all of us, (current polity). Llafur has always put 'class' before 'nation' and that stance seems to have always been successful in Wales but there are members of Llafur who do want independence. The experience of one such member campaigning during the Scottish referendum is illuminating. Perhaps a change to a more inclusive approach may actually benefit us all? nation.cymru/opinion/why-the-welsh-independence-movement-needs-labour-supporters-to-win/The classic book on nationalism is Benedict Anderson's "Imagined communities" which both tackles the ideological issues and puts them in a historical context. I'm sure oldnat has read it.... |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 8, 2023 8:46:05 GMT
Your posts in response to Alec's suggestion have been most revealing. It has demonstrated that the reasons that you typically give for Scotland needing independence - for example the numerical dominance of England and the democratic deficit in the Westminster system - are in fact bogus, because even if those were resolved you would still demand Scottish independence. That shows you do indeed hold to a nationalist ideology. The practical effect is that you are advancing a view, even if perhaps you do not realise it, that you have more in common with the members of a Glasgow Orange Lodge because they are also Scots than you do with English or Welsh social democrats or greens. That is not a philosophy I could ever agree with.
However, your refusal to engage with any of the dubious issues in your own, constitutionally conservative, position perhaps indicate that you have no answers. Thus far you have not proffered a single justification as to why the current UK is of net benefit to Scotland (or NI or Wales for that matter) or why the UK as an EU member state would be preferable to the polities within the UK being members in their own right.
Your condescension ("perhaps you do not realise it") sadly stems from an inability to comprehend your own tunnel vision, and projecting that onto others.
If considering that an independent Scottish state in the EU meant that I had "more in common with the members of a Glasgow Orange Lodge because they are also Scots than do with English or Welsh social democrats or greens", then your wish to have an independent UK state in the EU must necessarily mean that you have more in common with a Glasgow Orange Lodge, Britain First, Siol nan Gaidheal, the Heritage Party, Nat Con, ReesMogg, Braverman & co. and various other loony groups within the UK simply because they are British than you have with Irish, Danish, Icelandic etc Social Democrats and Greens.
1) Practical advantage to Scotland: the advantages of wider federal structures have just been amply demonstrated by the UK's exit from the EU and its impact on trade. Erecting borders within the boundaries of the current UK area will inevitably make all of us poorer. Besides that, morally, it would be sad to see yet further sub-division of humanity into competing penny-packets on the basis of largely notional differences. 2) your last paragraph does not follow. You advocate the existence of an entity called Scotland as an independent nation state on a particular set of borders, regardless of other factors. I am not calling for the existence of a permanent 'nation state' on the current UK boundaries. For one thing I strongly favour a united Ireland, but more significantly, I said I would be happy to see it disappear into the sort of Federal European Union that so scares Jib and Mercian. The stronger argument against a federal Britain (or federal British Isles, as I am happy to include all the polities you mention, if they were to be interested) is the one Hireton mentioned, i.e. realistically there is no chance of it happening. However, were it possible, I would certainly favour it over the creation of yet another set of competing nationalisms. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 8, 2023 8:56:46 GMT
1) Practical advantage to Scotland: the advantages of wider federal structures have just been amply demonstrated by the UK's exit from the EU and its impact on trade. Erecting borders within the boundaries of the current UK area will inevitably make all of us poorer. Against this, you can see the draw of london as the capital city of the nation. This effect happens in all nations. If you arent yourself a nation, then you miss out. Instead of clustering around Edinburgh, everyone departs for London. You lose national centres. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 8, 2023 8:59:32 GMT
1) Practical advantage to Scotland: the advantages of wider federal structures have just been amply demonstrated by the UK's exit from the EU and its impact on trade. Erecting borders within the boundaries of the current UK area will inevitably make all of us poorer. Against this, you can see the draw of london as the capital city of the nation. This effect happens in all nations. If you arent yourself a nation, then you miss out. Instead of clustering around Edinburgh, everyone departs for London. You lose national centres. Would an independent Scotland not feel the pull of a world city like London just as much? The population of London is larger than than that of the whole of Scotland - hard to see how Edinburgh competes. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 8, 2023 9:08:30 GMT
crossbat11 Rishi Sunak's rarely seen. Unless to get his card that's green. Heats his pool to 30° While half the people starve and freeze. Used to be a merchant banker Now he's just a total... Can't think of a last word can anyone help out!
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Post by leftieliberal on May 8, 2023 9:37:09 GMT
I'd thought I'd share this. I asked the AI in Bing to write a short poem about Keir Starmer: "He leads the Labour Party with a vision To win the next election and govern He was a lawyer and a prosecutor Now he's a politician and a leader He fights for justice, human rights and peace He wants to end austerity and increase The public ownership of rail and utilities The freedom of movement within the EU countries He faces challenges from left and right He tries to unify his party and unite The voters who are tired of Brexit and Covid The workers who are struggling to make a living He is Keir Starmer, the knight of the realm He is Keir Starmer, the man at the helm" I suppose we should all be thankful that AI did not exist in William McGonagall's time, otherwise the amount of bad poetry he could have produced would have been prodigious. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 8, 2023 9:55:21 GMT
A couple of limericks:
There was a Labour leader called Starmer,
Who after the local elections felt calmer.
He thought his lurch to the right,
Had put him back in the fight,
And he could get to No.10 without drama.
There was a Conservative Prime Minister called Rishi,
Who the Tories hoped the electorate would find dishy.
He presented himself as a blank slate,
But the voters said "no thanks, mate",
"We know Tory promises to deliver are fishy".
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Post by thylacine on May 8, 2023 9:55:58 GMT
crossbat11 Rishi Sunak's rarely seen. Unless to get his card that's green. Heats his pool to 30° While half the people starve and freeze. Used to be a merchant banker Now he's just a total... Can't think of a last word can anyone help out! I'm assuming poetry about the Chancellor is off limits? |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 8, 2023 10:05:07 GMT
There once was a chancellor called Hunt.
Who was absolute crap to be blunt.
Some called him a pratt
Others named him a twatt
But I just call him a
Holder of the office of
Chancellor of the Exchequer and Second Lord of the Treasury
And a ***t!
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 8, 2023 10:07:51 GMT
crossbat11 Rishi Sunak's rarely seen. Unless to get his card that's green. Heats his pool to 30° While half the people starve and freeze. Used to be a merchant banker Now he's just a total... Can't think of a last word can anyone help out! I'm assuming poetry about the Chancellor is off limits? There's a challenge: There was a Chancellor call Hunt, Who - let us be blunt -, Had an unfortunate name, His chief claim to fame, Being when Naughtie called him a ... (oops, failed) |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 8, 2023 10:12:05 GMT
By the way Steve you need a new leader. The only rhymes I can think of for Davey are wavy and gravy.  Edit: and navy, but that isn't helping. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 8, 2023 10:27:35 GMT
I've just been looking at the latest Electoral Calculus prediction for Mole Valley and it's clear they still haven't got a clue. They're saying the Tory majority will hardly be dented and the Lib Dem vote will go down because of a big swing from Lib Dem to Labour. It's garbage, how can anyone take their model seriously! Might I assume your view is based on LDEM doing well in your area in the LEs and LAB having zero councillors on Mole Valley District Council We've been through this lots of times of UKPR and UKPR2. LDEM do well in LEs (and in Westminster by-elections) but, despite what LDEM HQ will tell you, that doesn't mean they will do well in the Westminster seat in a proper GE. The example that is normally used is Watford. Watford Borough Council: Run by LDEM since 2003, current #councillors (change in recent LE) LDEM: 27 (uc)LAB: 9 (uc) CON: 0 (uc)Watford GE'19 result (change on GE'17) CON: 45.5% (-0.1)LAB: 37.9% (-4.1) LDEM: 16.1% (+7.0)Noting that LAB+LDEM = 54.0% which is greater than CON's 45.5% So CON have zero councillors in Watford but keep 'Winning (t)Here" in a GE due to LDEM splitting the ABCON vote (although LDEM would probably argue it is LAB who are splitting the ABCON vote). LDEM's did get 32.4% in that seat back in 2010 (CON winning with 34.9%) and the seat was LAB during the Blair era. NB Like any model then EC will make "assumptions". Quite clearly one of their assumptions is not to be swayed by LE results (or Westminster by-elections for that matter) given LE/by-election results historically poor track record in GE predictions! Of course they will get quite a few specific seats "wrong" in the prediction due to local factors but for folks who have been to more than one rodeo then "LDEM Winning Here" posters and dodgy bar charts are zzz ZZZ. My 2c (using my own model). EC's prediction for LDEM seats is probably a little on the low side. When using their 'tactical voting' adjustment, the overall number for LDEM is perhaps a better guide but several of the specific seats look "off". Mole Valley is not my polity so not for me to speak about local factors; whether or not LAB or LDEM post a "paper candidate" (and how effective or not that would be); etc. Nearer a GE then I'll see what the bookies say for Mole Valley. If I can get 25-1 or better for LDEM then maybe I'll put a few quid on them to win in Mole Valley?  |
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Post by johntel on May 8, 2023 10:40:52 GMT
I've just been looking at the latest Electoral Calculus prediction for Mole Valley and it's clear they still haven't got a clue. They're saying the Tory majority will hardly be dented and the Lib Dem vote will go down because of a big swing from Lib Dem to Labour. It's garbage, how can anyone take their model seriously! Might I assume your view is based on LDEM doing well in your area in the LEs and LAB having zero councillors on Mole Valley District Council @trevor My view is based on talking to my neighbours, people in the area and election candidates. I've lived here for 30 years and it's clear which way the wind is blowing. edit: everyone here knows Labour have zero chance so the ABT vote won't be split. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 8, 2023 10:45:26 GMT
Looks like a wash-out day here in Low Newton so I thought I'd while a few minutes away by posting my final thoughts on the recent local elections. Besides, they are what prompted my brief return to this site and it would be remiss of me to sign off without some reflections on them. Fitting bookends to my cameo UKPR2 reappearance.
In terms of my thoughts on the general political situation, nothing that transpired last Thursday gives me reason to revise them. There are two powerful public sentiments aligning; a desire for a change of government and an expectation that one is coming. This alignment usually spells electoral doom for the incumbents. In that respect, I think we're in (late) 1978, 1996 and 2009 country. A settled will amongst the electorate and a sense of not if but when. The local election results, whilst distributing the anti-incumbent vote across a wide range of beneficiaries, still sent a clear message. Kick the scoundrels out. Tectonic plates shifted during the Truss/Kwarteng banana republic episode. They ain't re-shifting either. Sunak is driving a hearse not an escape vehicle.
The much touted ABT pincer movement, with Labour on manoeuvres in the North and Midlands and the Lib Dems advancing in the South and South West, did materialise but the bad news for the Tories appears to be that voters are picking up all sorts of different sticks with which to electorally beat them. Not much succour for them either in other strongly performing right wing parties providing potential voter ballast and boosters at GE time. The battlefield looks lonely for them. Enemies gathering all around. Reinforcements where art thou? Can they entice forces currently lined up against them to become their allies again when it matters? Very doubtful I'd say.
The national vote share projections are providing Toryland with some solace, but are they either very reliable or salient in these circumstances? Extrapolating a national vote share from the England shires, towns and smaller cities is a psephological Krypton factor task, I would think. Maybe a task too far too. The psephologists can't even agree the figure. Is it 9% or 7%? I'm sensing some voodoo amongst the erudition. Still, it has sparked coalition of chaos speculation and, in that sense, Labour do need to find a narrative that defuses this. The prospect of a Labour revival in Scotland is helpful in that respect. Games are changing. Things are aligning. Ming vases are still safely in hand.
Streeting was quite good on this in his media round yesterday when he banged the drum that powder is being kept dry and that the Labour box of tricks is packed and primed. Things can only get better from hereon in. Starmer does continue to under-excite but I was struck by something Rafael Behr said a few months ago. He posed a question and then suggested an answer.
In a world where the Starmer strategy was working, what would the political terrain look like?
Well, it would look very much like it looks now.
The tortoise is getting there, in other words. Helped by others, getting some luck, as all successful politicians require, but he's getting it right too. We need to grant him that and be thankful for it too
I'm getting my betrayals in after the Tories are gone. Not before. Way too risky to do that. Eyes on the much bigger prize for now.
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Post by jib on May 8, 2023 10:55:30 GMT
With regards the defunct Mole Valley, it should be correctly referred to as Dorking and Horley following the boundary review, electoral calculus do indeed have the nominal result as follows;
Party Predicted Votes Predicted Share
CON 17,970 38.4%
LAB 11,453 24.5%
LIB 10,739 22.9%
Green 2,963 6.3%
Reform 2,848 6.1%
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 8, 2023 11:07:30 GMT
Another "weird" one for LDEM "Winning (t)Here" in LEs but not a GE is (Kingston-Upon) Hull City Council
LE result (change)
LDEM: 32 (+3)
LAB: 25 (-2)
CON: 0 (uc)
Other: 0 (-1)
LDEM have run the council since 2022 and also ran it between 2007-2011. In between LAB ran the council.
How many MPs do LDEM have in Hull? ZERO. How many will they likely ever win. ZERO
I'll pick one as it is useful in showing two further points. (Kingston Upon) Hull East. GE'19 result (change)
LAB: 39.2% (-19.1%)
CON: 35.4% (+5.5%)
BXP: 17.8% (new, but using UKIP'17 it would be +10.8%)
LDEM: 5.3% (+1.9%)
Green: 2.4% (+1.1%)
CON nearly won that seat in GE'19. Given it wasn't a "CON hold" after GE'17 then BXP stood a candidate and that probably denied CON another gain in GE'19. Anyway..
Point #1: Seats that CON held from GE'17 into GE'19 will have 0% for BXP in GE'19 and potentially easier for LAB/LDEM to win where UKIP used to win a large % (I typically look at GE'15 results to get a 'feel' for that). Seats that CON gained in GE'19 (or narrowly missed) had a 'split vote' on the RoC side in GE'19 so might behave differently. Obviously much will depend on how big a threat RUK are into GE'24 (and Rishi-Braverman can do something about that)
The other point is the one about a "resurgent" LDEM, trying to escape their coalition era baggage. In 2010 LDEM won 22.8% of the vote in Hull East. IMO in the last two GEs then quite a few folks who might have voted LDEM, or Green in that seat 'tactically voted' LAB - although that is impossible to prove. Anyway,
Point #2. IMO there is already some historic tactical voting on the LoC side and it is a risky assumption to say we could never see "negative" tactical voting (ie an unwind of some historic LDEM/Green "lent"* votes to LAB).
NB I'm certainly not predicting CON would win in Hull East, just using that as a different example of the LDEM "Winning Here" meme to make the above two points.
* For LDEM "loans": Given Starmer has apparently been "long opposed" to PR then LDEM will need to become king-makers in a hung parliament to try to force that onto LAB. Then if/when we do get PR then LDEM will want to grow their % and might want to start doing that now. LDEM do not have a "Rejoin EU" policy but perhaps one day they do. At which point then a/ Rejoiners will have a major party to vote for, b/ there will be a significant reason for LDEM not to "lend" votes to LAB
For Green "loans": Since LAB are now a Tory party then why would any 'genuine' Green vote for Starmer, Streeting and co. I note even Lammy is backing Tory policies. Red Tory, Blue Tory. Pig, Man. Impossible to say which is which other than the colour of the rosette they are wearing (although I note Streeting often even wears a blue tie)
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 8, 2023 11:08:15 GMT
Only 6 days until the start of the Turkish elections, still looking like Kilicdaroglu is edging it in the polls
But I suspect Erdoğan won't go easily...
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 8, 2023 11:19:25 GMT
Might I assume your view is based on LDEM doing well in your area in the LEs and LAB having zero councillors on Mole Valley District Council @trevor My view is based on talking to my neighbours, people in the area and election candidates. I've lived here for 30 years and it's clear which way the wind is blowing. edit: everyone here knows Labour have zero chance so the ABT vote won't be split. has given the EC current prediction. Perhaps you want to state yours and could show the changes v their prediction With estimated 70,013 electorate and 66.9% turnout that is a total of 46,839 voters - possibly quite a lot more than your circle of neighbours, friends and election candidates (who I'm sure are all totally neutral in their views ). www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Dorking%20and%20HorleyNB You can scroll down to the specific wards and I note LDEM are "predicted" to win the highest % in Dork. North and Dork. South. LAB seem to do better in Horley but who knows in a GE then maybe LAB stand aside or just post a paper candidate to give LDEM a better chance? Unlike yourself and others I don't just "know" stuff from the future but I'm pretty sure LAB % won't be 0% and assuming Greens post a candidate then I doubt that will be 0% either. We can't say for sure that any votes that LAB or Green do get might have gone to LDEM but your local ABCON parties can fight about who was the "CON enabler" if/when the ABCON vote is split and CON take the new seat of Dorking and Horley with perhaps just 35%ish of the vote (noting RUK might well split the RoC side and hence possibly "enable" either an Orange or Red Tory as a change from a Blue Tory) PS You can use the old seat if you like. If you were joking with your post then could I suggest add the  or emoji so people know you're joking. |
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Post by Rafwan on May 8, 2023 11:24:32 GMT
crossbat11Eloquent and deeply comforting. For me a troubling thought is that this is now, and there is still a long time to go. I am told that the last possible date for the election is on my eightieth birthday. Frankly that feels to me like about four decades away. In that space, really, anything can happen. It is my firm belief that our natural political state is socialist - common humanity. But this equilibrium is constantly interrupted - greed, Thatcher, Brexit, Johnson, etc. There is time for more horrible interruptions to come yet.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 8, 2023 11:29:22 GMT
Looks like the lib-dems are going to get a local election bounce
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Post by bardin1 on May 8, 2023 11:32:02 GMT
crossbat11 Rishi Sunak's rarely seen. Unless to get his card that's green. Heats his pool to 30° While half the people starve and freeze. Used to be a merchant banker Now he's just a total... Can't think of a last word can anyone help out! second ranker? |
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Post by bardin1 on May 8, 2023 11:35:46 GMT
By the way Steve you need a new leader. The only rhymes I can think of for Davey are wavy and gravy. Edit: and navy, but that isn't helping. Their leader is Ed Davey His suits are grey or navy Chance of PM dicey But his soccer skills are spicy* Note - I can corroborate this directly having played alongside him in a charity game against the local branch of Nandos - he was close to getting sent off for a rather humorous remark re chickens to the opposition |
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Post by moby on May 8, 2023 11:39:06 GMT
moby "It's as if you are saying the current structures doen't work, (agreed by me) but your response to the issue is the problem (for me) because when all is said and done it is to go your own way and leave the rest of us behind instead of looking to solutions that benefit all of us, (current polity). " Or looked at another way, you are selfishly determined to hold back Scotland and its citizens from pursuing a better course because of your emotional attachment to a failing state which has not shown and is not showing any willingness or ability to reform itself in any significant way. I don't have an attachment to a 'failing state'. I said that in my post 'agreed by me'? I'm not wanting to hold back anyone, I'm asking for the tone of the debate and how its resolved to be changed in the spirit of compromise, (that's why I included the article which articulated this). You contend that the UK has shown it is not willing or not able to reform in 'any way'. Devolution, the advent of Holyrood and the Senedd would indicate otherwise. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 8, 2023 11:47:54 GMT
Still raining here, but at least the nearby Ship Inn is now open!
One further thought on the impact of local council elections on the bigger political picture. Not only are there now many more councils where Labour, Lib Dems and the Greens are exercising power and influence, and gaining traction too (some brickbats with the bouquets too though, no doubt!), the army of activists and campaigners available to the three parties at the general election has been greatly increased. Conversely, that reservoir of party activism for the Tories is now much reduced. 1100 councillors and party workers is one hell of a cull. They're gradually fading from view in a host of communities. Foot sloggers thin on the ground.
A story often untold about the end of the Major government, and the Tories walk into the political wilderness for 13 years, was how they had almost disappeared as a functioning political party in large parts of the country by 1997. Literally non-existent as a campaigning presence. I saw it at first hand and it came after years of them haemorrhaging councillors in local elections.
And it should be remembered too how important morale is in politics. It's gained only gradually, but can be lost very rapidly, like air from a balloon. Election results are key morale givers and takers. I'm sensing it already, over the weekend in fact, in the demeanour of politicians in the media. I'm detecting people who look like they think they're going to win and those looking for towels to throw in. Voters pick up on this and the effect can be self-perpetuating.
Thinking you can win is an essential prerequisite for ultimately doing so.
Remember too how many voters like to hurry to the winning enclosure.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 8, 2023 11:48:23 GMT
Very disappointing. And I will be asked to lend my vote to Labour? I thought Lammy was more from the 'Left' side of LAB? His "Tory" views are picking up some attention from the LW of the twitterverse  Starmer can't rid of Rayner but she barely mutters a word these days and hence complicit in LAB becoming just another Tory party. Are there any genuine LoCs left on LAB's front bench? Any notable policies where a LAB HMG would be different to CON HMG? |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 8, 2023 11:49:40 GMT
Might I assume your view is based on LDEM doing well in your area in the LEs and LAB having zero councillors on Mole Valley District Council @trevor My view is based on talking to my neighbours, people in the area and election candidates. I've lived here for 30 years and it's clear which way the wind is blowing. edit: everyone here knows Labour have zero chance so the ABT vote won't be split. - your view that local people understand the tactical situation and take it into account is psephologically sound. EC's calculations, being polling based, are much too generous to Labour in areas where the Lib Dems are clearly the more likely competitor to the Tories, as I have been saying for some time. Here for example, is EC's 'prediction' for Tiverton and Honiton: Con 38.9%, Lab 34.1%, LD 11.1%, Green 6.2%. In reality, when put to the test in the by-election the Lib Dems won it at a canter. Here is an even dafter example: They have Central Devon being won by Labour 37%, Con 35.9%, LD 11.8%. In the Mid Devon council elections the Lib Dems won 33 of the 42 seats and Labour won none. There is simply no basis of Labour strength in that area on which to produce a result like EC's prediction, which is frankly garbage. Your gut instinct is likely to be much closer to the truth than EC's flawed methodology. |
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