24-April 2023 : LAB 44% / CON 29% / LDEM 11% / GRN 5%

[neilj]

A reminder of Sunak's 5 pledges

Inflation - halve inflation this year -Very unlikely

Growing the economy - the economy is stagnating

Refuce the National debt - It's getting bigger

Falling NHS waiting lists - They're getting longer

Stop the boats - record levels this month

Sunak asked people to judge him on these pledges, I suspect he won't like the verdict

[steve]

In Brexit bonus news.

Brexitanians could be eating previously-banned battery farmed eggs if measures introduced in 2012 are dropped as part of the new Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

Ministers are expected to green light the import of battery eggs from countries such as Mexico as part of the new post-Brexit trade agreement.


Attachment Deleted

[domjg]

Jul 13, 2023 12:13:17 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jul 13, 2023 11:23:14 GMT domjg said:

I'm not saying there should be any legal implications here, if you're 18 the law says your an adult and that's that though most at that age will, I think, still be very immature and relatively vulnerable. 
I'm just expressing a personal moral reaction. I would consider a relationship between say a 45 year old and a 19 year old (or either gender) as pretty darn unsavoury and I would have a very dim view of the 45 year old's sense of morality and likely intentions. 

If you argue that 18 is too immature to decide on your own romantic and sex life, then logically 18 is also too young to be allowed to vote, to serve on the front line in the armed forces, be sent to an adult prison and so on. What you are actually arguing for is an increase in the age of majority. And if you are going to start calling out age gaps you have to have some arbitrary number that is Ok/Not ok. Is 5 years ok? 10 Years?, 20? Where are you drawing the line about what is and is not acceptable to you?

As to your example, if the 45 year old and the 19 year old are clearly happy in their relationship what business of yours is it to even have an opinion on the matter. Your argument is no different to a homophobe saying they find a gay relationship unsavoury and they have a dim view of the parties morality and intentions. What consenting adults do that is legal is none of anyone else's business. 

It's just a personal opinion. I happen to think there's something not right with unbalanced relationships due to age, power, wealth, whatever but I agree, on an individual case basis it is none of my business and each case will be different.

"Your argument is no different to a homophobe saying they find a gay relationship unsavoury and they have a dim view of the parties morality and intentions" - That's needlessly provocative and also not comparable. I'm talking about people with potentially very different mental/emotional capacities regardless of sexuality. How is that comparable to say two 30 somethings in a same sex relationship? it's not.

steve I like Michael Sheen but I'll admit I thought him marrying someone so young was lame.

I sure as heck didn't intend to get people's backs up here so lets leave it. 

[steve]

Spaffer explains why it's impossible for him to comply with the covid enquiry requirements.

Attachment Deleted

[Deleted]

I think most people would accept that what consenting adults do is their own business - what we are really talking about is what consent means, especially if one party is super rich and or powerful and the other is not.

[Danny]

Jul 13, 2023 12:25:34 GMT steve said:

Or indeed national treasure Sir Patrick Stewart and his wife of ten years Sunny Ozell who is 39 years his junior.

She wasnt a trekie, was she?

Jul 13, 2023 12:18:45 GMT steve said:

Remarkable developments in direct fusion drive with orbital tests planned for 2027.... this appears a real credible possibility.

Even if they already had one here on earth, I cant believe they could get one in space by 2027. Thats massive kit they are talking about. One reason for locating the culham research labs where they are, is it is right next to a major electricity generation plant. Because it needs an entire conventional power station to deliver the power to start up any of their experimental rigs.

[Danny]

Jul 13, 2023 13:02:29 GMT nickp said:

I think most people would accept that what consenting adults do is their own business

Can't understand why it is all over the newspapers then?

- what we are really talking about is what consent means, especially if one party is super rich and or powerful and the other is not.

Its true we are always concerned about the letter of the law. As I mentioned, back in 1960 gay sex was a serious crime. Its a dodgy argument to say what really counts is the letter of the law rather than whats right. Its often a circular argument too as laws change. Whats 'right' changes as well.

I think both TV presenters would have had happier relationships had they not been 'super rich and powerful' and just ordinary. Then no one would have bothered about it at all. Both could have quietly got on with it in private. This is not about either of them having power to control another person, it is wholly about consensual relationships which have been brought to public attention by people with other motives. Attacking the media, attacking gay rights, attacking their offsprings chosen lifestyle, attacking decadent youth, attacking society for failing said offspring perhaps, selling newspapers.

Even Andy Pandy would likely have been quietly living a normal life is he didnt have the misfortune to be rich and famous.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

As the board descends ever further toward the realms of the Mail, any thoughts on the news of Tesla entering the energy market here?

Also: Labour rules on lobbying would ‘clean up politics’, says Angela Rayner
Exclusive: Standards system reform would ban ex-ministers from taking lobbying jobs related to former brief for up to five years

www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/13/labour-rules-on-lobbying-would-clean-up-politics-says-angela-rayner

Not very up on the lobbying thing myself: like the idea in principle - will these plans work/how much more might be required? 

p.s. would still be interesting to read thoughts on Labour’s education plans too, or indeed what people might think should more ideally be happening regardless of who is in power. 

[Mr Poppy]

YG and 'others' have been pretty jumpy with their VI recently but the tracker shows it's mostly 'noise'

Just FWIW then CON'19 x-break (change since last week)

CON: 43% (+6)
DK: 24% (uc)
RUK: 12% (uc)
LAB: 9% (-2)
WNV: 6% (-2)
...

For LAB then their 'loyalty' is dropping a bit but too early to say if that is just 'noise' (largely masked by CON's high DK%) or more LAB'19 realising Starmer-LAB is a very different beast to LAB'19

LAB: 68% (-4)
DK: 11% (+3)
Green: 8% (uc)
...

and whilst the regional x-breaks are small and will have high MoE then YG's weighting data (final page in their tabs)

"YouGov weights GB political surveys by (1) age interlocked with gender and education, (2)
political attention (3) social grade (4) 2019 recalled vote interlocked with region and (5) EU referendum recalled vote"

Not that there is anything of particular note or interest in the smaller x-breaks (IMO)

[steve]

Jonathan Pie on the ball.

youtu.be/rLFKcYphPCM

[Mr Poppy]

I expect someone has posted Deltapoll* and Savanta** but it's not '3-in-a-row' as R&W fieldwork breaks that up. There hasn't been anything +ve for CON in the last week so my guess is 'noise'. If anything the news has been pretty -ve but I'll resist the temptation to ponder why LAB aren't 30pts ahead 

CCHQ might try to get something +ve out before the by-elections or make a fuss about agreeing the pay review body pay rises (that they'd probably have agreed to anyway)? It would be pretty unpopular if they tried to force through lower pay rises***

Worth noting that the next ONS inflation report (maybe finally showing a decent drop???) is due on 19July but that is only one day before the GE and whilst the press like to point out higher mortgage rates then I doubt anyone has reported that Sonia has priced out almost 50bpts of rate hikes in the last few days (ie pricing a peak now closer to 6% from 6.5%). Next BoE is 3Aug and comes with a full MPR
www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/J8*0/futures-prices

* 

** 

*** 

[Danny]

Jul 13, 2023 14:07:01 GMT Mr Poppy said:

YG and 'others' have been pretty jumpy with their VI recently but the tracker shows it's mostly 'noise'

For LAB then their 'loyalty' is dropping a bit but too early to say if that is just 'noise' (largely masked by CON's high DK%) or more LAB'19 realising Starmer-LAB is a very different beast to LAB'19

The one thing you can say very clearly about graphs like the above is that labour is the mirror image of con.

That should not be. All it is telling us is that people think they have no choice but to vote lab or con, so as one goes up the other must come down. It doesnt really tell us how the public feel about either party, just what they would be forced to do in a vote. Ok, thats the idea of the poll to predict an election result. But it isnt telling us whether people like con, whether particular policies cause it to go up or down, or similarly whether they like lab or things it does. It masks whether both parties are immensely popular, or universally detested, just showing us which one has an edge on the other.

If it happens both are pretty roundly detested, then that creates the conditions for what happened recently, Brexit. A single issue can take over the system and create insane outcomes. Con have presided over 13 years of steady decline of the UK. Lab's best idea seems to be to do something similar to con. Uninspiring.

[Mr Poppy]

I don't have a problem with a weaker £ but I appreciate that BoE do and that inflation is viewed by BoE and HMG as 'Public Enemy #1'. Like interest rates then the 'doom+gloomers' only mention FX when the £ is weak so I doubt anyone would be mentioning that £ has been doing very well recently (although a lot of that is due to a weaker $)

UK Economy Shrinks Less Than Expected in May, GBP/USD Breaches 1.3000
www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-uk-economy-shrinks-less-than-expected-in-may-gbp-usd-breaches-1-3000-20230713.html

I don't want £ to rally that much but given inflation is 'public enemy #1' and BoE will factor in £ exchange rate into their calculations (ie a stronger £ => lower inflation) then, for now, a stronger £ is a good thing.

IMO it would be better if BoE stopped using the 'rear view mirror' to hike rates BUT I appreciate they are unlikely to change their approach and might even think US inflation has dropped only because FED have overdone it. As before, then the only +ve from BoE overdoing it is that they will have plenty of room to cut later this year and next year.

[steve]

"Boris Johnson ‘has forgotten’ passcode for phone wanted by Covid inquiry"

I'm pretty certain that the smart chaps at GCHQ can help him out with that.

If not there's a bloke at my local market who can do it for £20

[Mark]

Caveat : I've been out all day, so, this could possibly be out of date, but...

Re-the Huw Edwards story.

The onl thing we know for certain is that we are far from knowing the whole story.

What we do know is that Edwards is alleged to have paid sums of money to a boy, now 20 for mild sexually explicit photos. The boy may or may not have been 17 when the irst photos were sent.

As far as is in the public domain, there is no actual relationship, sexual or otherwise, between the two, simply an exchange of photos for money.

It seems to me, the most obvious question of all isn't being asked.

What relationship extists or existed and how did it come about?

If Edwards simply wanted underwear pics, a quick Google search would surely have sufficed. Even if he wasnted specific poses or a specific type of underwear, it would surely not be hard to find - for free.

The logical upshot is that eithor they knew each other and the pictures Edwards paid for weren't just some random stranger...or Edwards found him on a site where you can pay for individual / custom sexual services....or at least a dating app where people are willing to surrepticiously (sp?) offer such services.

[Danny]

Jul 13, 2023 15:37:05 GMT Mr Poppy said:

I don't want £ to rally that much but given inflation is 'public enemy #1' and BoE will factor in £ exchange rate into their calculations (ie a stronger £ => lower inflation) then, for now, a stronger £ is a good thing.

The pound fell to a steady value around $1.5-1.6 after the 2008 world crash. Before that it had been rising steadily from about 2002 to a peak arond $2.00. So the world bank fraud made each pound worth abot $0.40 less. Once the threat and then certainty of brexit began, it dropped further to about $1.30. So brexit cost the UK about $0.30 The first drop was about 20%, the second a little bit less as a percentage. In the last year or two the pound has done worse again, though as you say it has recovered a bit of that further loss. 

The bottom line is the pound is still 20% lower because of Brexit.

[Danny]

Jul 13, 2023 16:05:31 GMT Mark said:

Caveat : I've been out all day, so, this could possibly be out of date, but...

Re-the Huw Edwards story.

The onl thing we know for certain is that we are far from knowing the whole story.

What we do know is that Edwards is alleged to have paid sums of money to a boy, now 20 for mild sexually explicit photos. The boy may or may not have been 17 when the irst photos were sent.

As far as is in the public domain, there is no actual relationship, sexual or otherwise, between the two, simply an exchange of photos for money.

It seems to me, the most obvious question of all isn't being asked.

What relationship extists or existed and how did it come about?

If Edwards simply wanted underwear pics, a quick Google search would surely have sufficed. Even if he wasnted specific poses or a specific type of underwear, it would surely not be hard to find - for free.

The logical upshot is that eithor they knew each other and the pictures Edwards paid for weren't just some random stranger...or Edwards found him on a site where you can pay for individual / custom sexual services....or at least a dating app where people are willing to surrepticiously (sp?) offer such services.

You are absolutely correct we do not know details, and I suspect never will unless either party makes a full disclosure. Its entirely possible that what parents reported while it might have been their honest belief was largely wrong. Given they dont seem to have been on good terms with their son, they might have very little idea what really happened. Its not impossible their son told them some random story he felt might keep them happy, or they picked up random bits, and added 2+2 to 5.

A quick google will find you a lot more than just underwear pictures. If you care to chat with people on suitable apps, some will give you pictures with much more anatomical detail for free. It might not be of them, of course. If you wanted to be sure it really was them, you might have to meet them. I presume the broadcaster would have been very reluctant to post a face shot himself for obvious reasons.

Its entirely possible the youngster was operating a business. Not saying he was. Maybe the two were good friends. Maybe they werent. We dont know at all. The youngster  seems to have acted in good faith for his part, as has the broadcaster. Its the parents who have caused a problem for them both.   If this was a mutual ongoing arrangement between the two parties, I imagine they would both be very angry at the parents.

[mercian]

Jul 13, 2023 12:42:26 GMT neilj said:

A reminder of Sunak's 5 pledges

Inflation - halve inflation this year -Very unlikely

Growing the economy - the economy is stagnating

Refuce the National debt - It's getting bigger

Falling NHS waiting lists - They're getting longer

Stop the boats - record levels this month

Sunak asked people to judge him on these pledges, I suspect he won't like the verdict

I agree it's not looking good, but I think he did say by the end of the year so there's time for improvement.

[shevii]

Jul 13, 2023 16:05:31 GMT Mark said:

Caveat : I've been out all day, so, this could possibly be out of date, but...

Re-the Huw Edwards story.

The onl thing we know for certain is that we are far from knowing the whole story.

What we do know is that Edwards is alleged to have paid sums of money to a boy, now 20 for mild sexually explicit photos. The boy may or may not have been 17 when the irst photos were sent.

As far as is in the public domain, there is no actual relationship, sexual or otherwise, between the two, simply an exchange of photos for money.

It seems to me, the most obvious question of all isn't being asked.

What relationship extists or existed and how did it come about?

If Edwards simply wanted underwear pics, a quick Google search would surely have sufficed. Even if he wasnted specific poses or a specific type of underwear, it would surely not be hard to find - for free.

The logical upshot is that eithor they knew each other and the pictures Edwards paid for weren't just some random stranger...or Edwards found him on a site where you can pay for individual / custom sexual services....or at least a dating app where people are willing to surrepticiously (sp?) offer such services.

The other thing we know for certain is that the Sun has at best hugely exaggerated if not outright lied, not done their due diligence by getting both sides of the story, and simply taken the word of, I believe, an estranged parent. They also appear to have attempted to portray the BBC in a bad light when there appears to be a pretty decent defence coming from the BBC about the actions they took and when.  Indeed they were the sort of actions the Sun should have taken before publishing.  I'm not saying the Sun wouldn't have been justified in printing the story in the end but there was no journalistic integrity to clarify facts and report accurately.

We are two for two today with the cat school ofsted emergency inspection, and it does seem like tabloids have no interest in reporting a story accurately or with any considerations for the individuals who are likely to be harmed over and above any justification for anything they have done or indeed having done nothing wrong at all.

No wonder conspiracy theories are so widespread when the way stories are written up in the tabloids can imply all sorts of things that simply aren't there. Who needs twitter when you have the Sun & Mail to speak with such authority?

[steve]

mercian
There's time to get worse as well.
On NHS and National debt that's more or less guaranteed.

The regime's latest wheeze is acknowledgment of the need for overseas staff in healthcare combined with a massive increase in the price that people have to pay for the visas they need to work here and an increase in the NHS excess charge for new arrivals.

That should have nurses flocking here in their nones.


The visa fee in Spain is a one off around £80 the cost in the U.K. is around £1000 renewable every two and a half years.

[alec]

The OBR certainly seem to have shot that particular rabbit -

Cutting the NHS waiting list in half would only reduce working age inactivity by 25,000.

Must be something else driving this.

Mystery.

[Danny]

News item just now interviewed a US actor about the strike there of all actors. He mentioned that residual payments for repeats are being cut, and how many actors rely on them to pay their health insurance at around $26,000 a year. That converts to just under £20,000.

I looked up spending on health care in the UK and came across some conflicting numbers. However seems to be about £4,000 per head of the population. Bit of a difference!

[Deleted]

Seems unlikely that Anthony Wells site provides such excellent advice on online sex apps as we are treated to here…

[graham]

There has been much discussion of sexual behaviour in recent days for perhaps obvious reasons. If I may raise a somewhat different issue which arose at my U3A class earlier today.
I made the point that back in the 70s and 80s there was no way that my parents would have permitted myself or my siblings to sleep in their family home with girlfriends or boyfriends. We went on to discuss how far that would still be the line taken by parents nowadays. We did not really arrive at a concensus view - beyond the suggestion that age could well be a factor - ie a couple in a relationship in their mid-30s might be more readily allowed to sleep together than - say - teenagers or couples in their early 20s. I took the simple view that parents have every right to impose their own moral standards within their own homes.

[RAF]

Jul 13, 2023 18:27:45 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

Seems unlikely that Anthony Wells site provides such excellent advice on online sex apps as we are treated to here…

For some unfathomable reason, UKPR2 appears to have an array of experts in the most unlikely and unnecessary fields.

[thylacine]

Jul 13, 2023 18:52:08 GMT graham said:

There has been much discussion of sexual behaviour in recent days for perhaps obvious reasons. If I may raise a somewhat different issue which arose at my U3A class earlier today.
I made the point that back in the 70s and 80s there was no way that my parents would have permitted myself or my siblings to sleep in their family home with girlfriends or boyfriends. We went on to discuss how far that would still be the line taken by parents nowadays. We did not really arrive at a concensus view - beyond the suggestion that age could well be a factor - ie a couple in a relationship in their mid-30s might be more readily allowed to sleep together than - say - teenagers or couples in their early 20s. I took the simple view that parents have every right to impose their own moral standards within their own homes.

I would assume that most parents today would allow their adult children to stay overnight with partners. Safer at home than elsewhere IMO.

[RAF]

Jul 13, 2023 16:30:22 GMT mercian said:

Jul 13, 2023 12:42:26 GMT neilj said:

A reminder of Sunak's 5 pledges

Inflation - halve inflation this year -Very unlikely

Growing the economy - the economy is stagnating

Refuce the National debt - It's getting bigger

Falling NHS waiting lists - They're getting longer

Stop the boats - record levels this month

Sunak asked people to judge him on these pledges, I suspect he won't like the verdict

I agree it's not looking good, but I think he did say by the end of the year so there's time for improvement.

Politics is just like that at times. A PM asks to be judged on picking off some low hanging fruit, only for the stubborn fruit to refuse to yield. I suspect at some point he will clarify that the list was more concerned with trends than absolute wins.

[thylacine]

Jul 13, 2023 19:00:29 GMT RAF said:

Jul 13, 2023 18:27:45 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

Seems unlikely that Anthony Wells site provides such excellent advice on online sex apps as we are treated to here…

For some unfathomable reason, UKPR2 appears to have an array of experts in the most unlikely and unnecessary fields.

If only these poor individuals had had polls and politics and dare I say cricket to fill their Internet lives then maybe they wouldn't have found themselves in such a pickle.

[pjw1961]

Jul 13, 2023 17:00:36 GMT shevii said:

Jul 13, 2023 16:05:31 GMT Mark said:

Caveat : I've been out all day, so, this could possibly be out of date, but...

Re-the Huw Edwards story.

The onl thing we know for certain is that we are far from knowing the whole story.

What we do know is that Edwards is alleged to have paid sums of money to a boy, now 20 for mild sexually explicit photos. The boy may or may not have been 17 when the irst photos were sent.

As far as is in the public domain, there is no actual relationship, sexual or otherwise, between the two, simply an exchange of photos for money.

It seems to me, the most obvious question of all isn't being asked.

What relationship extists or existed and how did it come about?

If Edwards simply wanted underwear pics, a quick Google search would surely have sufficed. Even if he wasnted specific poses or a specific type of underwear, it would surely not be hard to find - for free.

The logical upshot is that eithor they knew each other and the pictures Edwards paid for weren't just some random stranger...or Edwards found him on a site where you can pay for individual / custom sexual services....or at least a dating app where people are willing to surrepticiously (sp?) offer such services.

The other thing we know for certain is that the Sun has at best hugely exaggerated if not outright lied, not done their due diligence by getting both sides of the story, and simply taken the word of, I believe, an estranged parent. They also appear to have attempted to portray the BBC in a bad light when there appears to be a pretty decent defence coming from the BBC about the actions they took and when.  Indeed they were the sort of actions the Sun should have taken before publishing.  I'm not saying the Sun wouldn't have been justified in printing the story in the end but there was no journalistic integrity to clarify facts and report accurately.

We are two for two today with the cat school ofsted emergency inspection, and it does seem like tabloids have no interest in reporting a story accurately or with any considerations for the individuals who are likely to be harmed over and above any justification for anything they have done or indeed having done nothing wrong at all.

No wonder conspiracy theories are so widespread when the way stories are written up in the tabloids can imply all sorts of things that simply aren't there. Who needs twitter when you have the Sun & Mail to speak with such authority?

We also know that the Police have looked at this twice by separate branches and both times said nothing illegal occurred and the other party to the transaction has said through his solicitors that nothing under age occurred and that the Sun story was wrong. Therefore I think we can rule out Mark's suggestion above that the boy may have been 17. Even the Sun are now claiming they never said anything illegal happened.  

[pjw1961]

Jul 13, 2023 18:52:08 GMT graham said:

There has been much discussion of sexual behaviour in recent days for perhaps obvious reasons. If I may raise a somewhat different issue which arose at my U3A class earlier today.
I made the point that back in the 70s and 80s there was no way that my parents would have permitted myself or my siblings to sleep in their family home with girlfriends or boyfriends. We went on to discuss how far that would still be the line taken by parents nowadays. We did not really arrive at a concensus view - beyond the suggestion that age could well be a factor - ie a couple in a relationship in their mid-30s might be more readily allowed to sleep together than - say - teenagers or couples in their early 20s. I took the simple view that parents have every right to impose their own moral standards within their own homes.

As adults who own a house permitting other's to stay there you are presumably correct, but not in their role as parents. Parental control over and responsibility for their off-spring's actions ends at 18 when they become adults. That is the law of the land.