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Post by James E on May 4, 2023 11:20:24 GMT
RE General Election 2015. etc But a fair chunk of the 2010 Labour vote deserted the party in 2015 - and not just in Scotland. Where did those votes go? Using the last 4 pre-GE YouGovs from May 2015, the Lab 2010 voters divided as: Con 7% Lab 78% LD 3% UKIP 5% SNP 4% |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2023 11:27:13 GMT
Taking a short break from campaigning. Weather ideal for voters in Braintree (sunny but not too hot). The natives I have spoken to on the doorstep today have been very friendly - but then they are our voters, so they should be. Dare I say, I even detected a degree of enthusiasm.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 4, 2023 11:28:18 GMT
Glad you did it? I imagine one might learn quite a lot for starters… Yes: before this I wanted to be an MP I learnt a number of things, mostly about me, and it made it clear to me that there was no prospect of me becoming an MP: (1) I am not able to dissemble my views and therefore unable to nuance responses to fit an audience (2) Whilst I can change my views based on evidence and changed circumstances I am not able to do so to fit with party stances as they change (3) I am unable to avoid giving a straight answer to a straight question, which led to me having to retreat up a garden path at speed on one occasion (4) I spent far too long on doorsteps attempting to convert the unconvertible with evidence, I might have already explained I now believe that evidence doesn't affect these stances its mostly a matter of aesthetics. That’s a very considered analysis. I like to think about best ways of communicating given the interest in education, but the doorstep situation seems much more condensed, so it might indeed reveal quite a bit. The question of converting via evidence is something that used to crop up in the old board… (I kind of tend toward the idea that it is possible to convince with evidence a bit more often if one can line up enough ducks, which can be decidedly non-trivial…) |
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Post by James E on May 4, 2023 11:31:56 GMT
So given how in the last couple of years Labour’s polling fell while UKUP’s rose, and Tories and Lib Dem’s stayed relatively flat, where do you think UKIP votes came from in that period? Using my Dec 2012/Feb 2013 YGs linked above, the rise in the UKIP vote was only a couple of points from then onwards- from 10% to 12%. UKIP's rise was mostly before then, and clearly came at the expense of the Tories @ around 11-17% of their 2010 voters. But if you look at the Lab>UKIP switching as per the tables I linked, it was only 1% or 2% at that time, as opposed to 5-6% at GE2015. So this direct Lab>UKIP switching after Feb 2013 could account for most of the UKIP gains made from that point onwards (plus a bit of LD>UKIP which also rose from then onwards). |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2023 11:35:13 GMT
Just voted I was struck by how archaic the process is - pencil and a list then shove it in a box to be counted by hand! I don't have much problem with photo id myself, but what would be the problem about voting (in a booth) digitally, then we'd know the result as soon as polling closed. Is there some reason I'm not aware of? Down here we have something called "The Heritage Party". They sent me a leaflet, which made Mussolini seem like a lib dem. Main appeal seems to be the conspiracy theory vote (esp 5G). No Reform or other right wing grouplets though. You may be suprised to learn that the Heritage Party's national youth spokesman (she is female but they have spokesmen not spokespersons) is currently sitting in my conservatory eating ham, egg and chips with my son. She is the singer in a band he plays guitar in. |
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Post by mercian on May 4, 2023 11:38:39 GMT
I find the term 'code' as a verb somewhat demeaning but no offence taken. It makes it sound (to me) like some drudge task. I certainly agree that PPE types are over-represented in government. A few more mathematicians and scientists would be useful, but of course most of the good ones have much better things to do than scream abuse at each other in the HoC. Apols, I didn’t mean anything bad by it, I think writing software is pretty cool. Something else being impacted by AI... No probs, I know it's the modern jargon. You're right about it being another at risk job though. A friend of mine has been struggling to write some c++ code to interface to an API. He got ChatGPT to have a go. It didn't finish, because he was just using the free test version but he said the code looked ok as far as it got. I haven't tried it out yet because I think it asked for my email address and I don't want an AI to have that (although it probably already has). That's one of the most worrying aspects - the opacity of the process. Apparently even the developers aren't always sure how a particular result has been achieved. |
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on May 4, 2023 11:39:13 GMT
Just voted I was struck by how archaic the process is - pencil and a list then shove it in a box to be counted by hand! I don't have much problem with photo id myself, but what would be the problem about voting (in a booth) digitally, then we'd know the result as soon as polling closed. Is there some reason I'm not aware of? Down here we have something called "The Heritage Party". They sent me a leaflet, which made Mussolini seem like a lib dem. Main appeal seems to be the conspiracy theory vote (esp 5G). No Reform or other right wing grouplets though. You may be suprised to learn that the Heritage Party's national youth spokesman (she is female but they have spokesmen not spokespersons) is current sitting in my conservatory eating ham, egg and chips with my son. She is the singer in a band he plays guitar in. Yes, I am surprised! Always good not to remain in our bubbles..... |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2023 11:44:05 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-wYou'd have to ask them but we're actually quite a young local party and about a third of members would have been just about too young to vote in 2010. Our youngest candidate this election is 19 and is currently resplendent in Green and orange hair.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2023 11:45:17 GMT
You may be suprised to learn that the Heritage Party's national youth spokesman (she is female but they have spokesmen not spokespersons) is current sitting in my conservatory eating ham, egg and chips with my son. She is the singer in a band he plays guitar in. Yes, I am surprised! Always good not to remain in our bubbles..... You are not wrong about that party though. |
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Post by mercian on May 4, 2023 11:47:06 GMT
(I think the low end threshold should be raised substantially, paid for by rises in the higher rate) I agree that the tax allowance should be at least the same as a full time job on minimum wage. And it should rise to keep pace with rises in that. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 4, 2023 11:50:33 GMT
On the topic of the 1983 GE, I think its very hard not to see the split in the opposition and SDP breakaway as the significant factor contributing to the scale of the Tory victory. What it also did was give credence to the right-wing narrative/perception that Labour was a 'dinosaur' party out of touch etc. The latter point was driven home by the contrasting campaigns that were run - the 'slick' Tory one which was presented as modern and the Labour one which was run along more traditional lines (and the 'longest suicide note in history'). You do also have the Falklands war etc - but also the Murdoch press was coming into its own a that time and they helped amplify these factors. When you consider that they wanted to stop building new nuclear power stations, return to generating electricity from coal and leave the EEC (as it was then) without even a referendum, one might think that we had a lucky escape. |
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Post by wb61 on May 4, 2023 11:52:43 GMT
oldnat mercian I think that a basic income would do away with the need for a tax free allowance. With the technology currently available a tax policy should could have a graph curve based taxation system where the rate starts at 1% and gradually increases to whatever level is considered appropriate. But there again, unlike mercian I believe in redistribution of wealth.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 4, 2023 11:53:01 GMT
Just voted I was struck by how archaic the process is - pencil and a list then shove it in a box to be counted by hand! I don't have much problem with photo id myself, but what would be the problem about voting (in a booth) digitally, then we'd know the result as soon as polling closed. Is there some reason I'm not aware of? Down here we have something called "The Heritage Party". They sent me a leaflet, which made Mussolini seem like a lib dem. Main appeal seems to be the conspiracy theory vote (esp 5G). No Reform or other right wing grouplets though. You may be suprised to learn that the Heritage Party's national youth spokesman (she is female but they have spokesmen not spokespersons) is currently sitting in my conservatory eating ham, egg and chips with my son. She is the singer in a band he plays guitar in. Surely you should have served gammon with the chips 😀 Just looked at the Heritage party manifesto, wow heritageparty.org/manifesto/ |
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Post by mercian on May 4, 2023 11:53:09 GMT
If that's aimed at me, which I assume it is because I'm the one who stated that view, I would say that I wasn't perfectly aware that I'd be cushioned from Brexit effects. I did expect some short-term economic turbulence which is happening, but I'm not sure it's attributable to Brexit because of Covid and Putin. And I do care about my children and they're all doing well and they haven't noticed any Brexit-related problems either, Strange facts don't back you up. Has anybody ever said 'all' our problems are due to brexit? Not sure I've read that. But the idea some of them aren't is pure stupidity or head in sand syndrome. My biggest problem with brexit supporters is I don't remember all this "it'll take time", "i expected short-term pain" etc before brexit was voted on. I do remember £350million for the NHS, cheaper food etc. I don't remember the Tories telling us how after brexit they were going to become less democratic etc. but do remember how democracy was going to be stronger etc..will of the people and all that crap. I didn't say none of them were. Indeed you actually quote a bit where I specifically I did expect some problems. I thought you were around in the days of UKPR1. If you were, don't you remember TOH frequently saying that he didn't expect to see significant benefits until around 2030? I agreed with him, as did one or two others. |
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graham
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Post by graham on May 4, 2023 11:54:48 GMT
But a fair chunk of the 2010 Labour vote deserted the party in 2015 - and not just in Scotland. Where did those votes go? Using the last 4 pre-GE YouGovs from May 2015, the Lab 2010 voters divided as: Con 7% Lab 78% LD 3% UKIP 5% SNP 4% 12% of Labour's 2010 vote switching to Tory /UKIP is quite a chunk! |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 4, 2023 11:55:02 GMT
May the 4th be with you - always! The Plod don't know the difference between Star Wars and Star Trek. (Clue: Star Trek came first). |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 4, 2023 11:57:01 GMT
So given how in the last couple of years Labour’s polling fell while UKUP’s rose, and Tories and Lib Dem’s stayed relatively flat, where do you think UKIP votes came from in that period? Using my Dec 2012/Feb 2013 YGs linked above, the rise in the UKIP vote was only a couple of points from then onwards- from 10% to 12%. UKIP's rise was mostly before then, and clearly came at the expense of the Tories @ around 11-17% of their 2010 voters. But if you look at the Lab>UKIP switching as per the tables I linked, it was only 1% or 2% at that time, as opposed to 5-6% at GE2015. So this direct Lab>UKIP switching after Feb 2013 could account for most of the UKIP gains made from that point onwards. Hmm, interesting. The late green improvement might have impacted Lab a bit, though LDs dipped slightly too. The bigger rise in UKIP in the middle, coincides with a fall in both Labour and Cons, with the Cons fall a bit shallower so some might have come from Lab as well. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2023 11:58:06 GMT
You may be suprised to learn that the Heritage Party's national youth spokesman (she is female but they have spokesmen not spokespersons) is currently sitting in my conservatory eating ham, egg and chips with my son. She is the singer in a band he plays guitar in. Surely you should have served gammon with the chips 😀 Just looked at the Heritage party manifesto, wow heritageparty.org/manifesto/I don't think my son's interest in her has much to do with politics. There is a picture of her here (Young Adult Spokesman): heritageparty.org/about/ |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 4, 2023 12:03:00 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w You'd have to ask them but we're actually quite a young local party and about a third of members would have been just about too young to vote in 2010. Our youngest candidate this election is 19 and is currently resplendent in Green and orange hair. Ah well, thanks Steve. (The search continues…) |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 4, 2023 12:03:33 GMT
Sorry to burst the bubble but there are "RoC" alternatives in this LE (and all previous LEs). RoC is the wrong label but "ABCON who are not LAB, LDEM or Green" and noting that few RUK, UKIP, etc candidates are standing in most places leaves the Arch-NIMBY options of various Inds and RAs who fish from a similar pond to the kind of people who vote CON in GEs. IE some CON for GE will vote Arch-NIMBY in an LE (and some will vote Green (also Arch-NIMBY but with tree+flower planting plans) as well). Also obviously a lot of people who don't bother with LEs as we can see in turnout %s, although that does likely hurt LAB% (and in %s help LDEM) As per various folks 'forecasts' the CON might actually win back some council wards from the Arch-NIMBYs - complex reasoning explained before. Simples version being that Arch-NIMBY promises can mean powers are taken away from councils and LAs end up getting more of the "wrong houses" built in their area. So having tried Arch-NIMBY some folks might well revert to CON. Of course everyone will over analyse the results and try to make a prediction for a GE still probably 18mths away but the LoC dominance on this board does lean towards some very simplistic assumptions. * EG Uttlesford District Council: www.bishopsstortfordindependent.co.uk/news/government-confirms-special-measures-for-uttlesford-planners-9266940/Spoilsport-they are so excited in their bubble. Interesting point about Indys. Our Parish Council Leader is standing in the DC election as an Indy against a Con. He is a millionaire-dont know how he votes in a GE. When we lived in Cornwall a great friend who was a long time LD councillor always referred to his Independents as "ConDependendents" Yes-turnout is a big difference with GEs. My wife hasnt got her Driving Licence just now and I know nothing of local politics so we won't vote today. I should have added the caveat of 'local' to my Inds comment - some Inds might be different, but in my experience they are NIMBY. Also it's possible some RAs (Resident's Associations) aren't Arch-NIMBY and actually want housing/development/etc. IE Probably a few 'exceptions to break the rule'. There are a few folks who switch around a bit as well. You didn't state the historical details for you Parish Council leader but some people just want to be on the council* and will fancy their chances more as an Ind in some cases perhaps (or flip between different parties depending on how the wind is blowing). * Call me a cynic but often to promote their own interests (or to block the interests of the broader population, notably people who want genuinely affordable housing for locals/essential workers). As an 'Ind' then in a NOC council you can more easily be 'bought' (ie paid) on a vote by vote basis.  |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2023 12:03:47 GMT
neilj A local party for local people! FFS. 
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2023 12:07:53 GMT
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 4, 2023 12:10:29 GMT
If anyone tried to ask me a question or reply to me during my recent absence and was unable to work out how to use the 'quote' or 'tag' function then, if* you want a reply, please learn how to use the 'quote' or 'tag' function - I'm not reading 20pages of posts to find a direct/indirect reply.
* Of course if you never intended (or intend) for me to read your reply/comment to me then continue to not use the 'quote' or 'tag' function.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 4, 2023 12:10:59 GMT
I don't think my son's interest in her has much to do with politics. There is a picture of her here (Young Adult Spokesman): heritageparty.org/about/Holy moly, scary stuff, I'd have a word with your son! Too.. many.. union.. flags... |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 4, 2023 12:12:55 GMT
Interesting analysis, can see why the tories were in favour of it
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 4, 2023 12:18:28 GMT
But a fair chunk of the 2010 Labour vote deserted the party in 2015 - and not just in Scotland. Where did those votes go? Using the last 4 pre-GE YouGovs from May 2015, the Lab 2010 voters divided as: Con 7% Lab 78% LD 3% UKIP 5% SNP 4% |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 4, 2023 12:20:31 GMT
Since it came up a few days ago then note Starmer's latest pledge break/U-turn is yet another one where he's taking 'loyal' LAB voters for granted:
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 4, 2023 12:22:13 GMT
I would of hoped for better from the Green Party
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 4, 2023 12:26:12 GMT
Example of Inds in one area that are very different to the Inds in my area:
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graham
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Post by graham on May 4, 2023 12:31:12 GMT
I would of hoped for better from the Green Party I have received 3 Green leaflets in my ward containing that same message - though directed at Tory and LD voters. |
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