c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 4, 2023 6:58:00 GMT
That graph tells us nothing about where UKIP got their voters from. But an analysis of YouGov's polls immdiately before GE2015 showed that they took 15% of Con2010 voters, 10% of LD2010 and 6% of Lab 2010. That sounds about right, they were stealing votes from the two big parties in the ratio 2:1 con to lab. Which would have guaranteed a labour win had it been allowed to continue. Thus con decided to support a Brexit referendum. However, if you go back another 5 years similar statistics applied and con was beginning anti EU rhetoric for the same reasons, to stop the losses to UKIP. 2006 Farage became leader, 2010 election UKIP got 3% of votes, which could have been the difference for Cameron securing a majority without the libs. The problem with using the 2010 figure, as I was trying to get across, is that it is probably obscuring losses to UKIP that are SUBSEQUENT to 2010. Labour attracted quite a lot of support AFTER 2010, saw their polling rise quite a lot, and then lost it later, and some of this subsequent gain may have also gone to UKIP. If you just use 2010 figures, some may appear to have gone straight from Con to UKIP, but it may actually have gone from Con to Labour then to UKIP, for example. So the focus on hyping immigration might have harmed Labour voting a bit more than you might think by looking at 2010, as it cost them some of their gains. |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 4, 2023 6:58:59 GMT
Q: Can I pay more tax voluntarily?A: Yes. advisingfamilies.org/uk/information-portal/managing-money/can-i-pay-more-tax-voluntarily/As well as the options in above link then you can also: 1/ not use tax efficient methods of saving (eg instead of using ISAs then hold cash in a regular account) 2/ not use your allowances (although it is still unclear if Starmer didn't use his Capital Gains Tax allowance when he flipped a property then HMRC aren't going to refuse the money if you fail to use your allowances) NB Can people please bookmark the above so it doesn't need to repeated yet again, when it comes up yet again. PS Adding a 'tag' example but I note mercian has already read it by using the 'like' function. Seems the RoCs know how to use the functionality and perhaps it is a blessing that some LoCs don't. 
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 4, 2023 7:06:42 GMT
On the topic of the 1983 GE, I think its very hard not to see the split in the opposition and SDP breakaway as the significant factor contributing to the scale of the Tory victory. What it also did was give credence to the right-wing narrative/perception that Labour was a 'dinosaur' party out of touch etc. The latter point was driven home by the contrasting campaigns that were run - the 'slick' Tory one which was presented as modern and the Labour one which was run along more traditional lines (and the 'longest suicide note in history'). You do also have the Falklands war etc - but also the Murdoch press was coming into its own a that time and they helped amplify these factors.
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Post by alec on May 4, 2023 7:16:27 GMT
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Post by bardin1 on May 4, 2023 7:17:59 GMT
Like pjw, I would be happy to pay more tax, though to be clear I do only pay basic rate. The idea that this should be done “voluntarily” is pitiful. “Voluntary tax” is an oxymoron. The main reason I would be happy is that it would be part of a fair and equitable tax regime.
Indeed, we would both want the unfair and inequitable UK tax regime to be altered to end the "tax on employment" that is NI contributions, if it weren't for the fact that the extra revenue would accrue to the UK Treasury, and not ScotGov. Ditto - when I retired (in England) I worked out my work pension carefully to stay in the lower tax bands. Came back up here and very happy to be paying extra and also to now be in the higher tax band due to the sneaky failure to raise thresholds. It pays for the things I believe a society should provide to all its citizens. Would be happy to pay even more to alleviate poverty at the lower end (I think the low end threshold should be raised substantially, paid for by rises in the higher rate) |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 4, 2023 7:22:46 GMT
On the topic of the 1983 GE, I think its very hard not to see the split in the opposition and SDP breakaway as the significant factor contributing to the scale of the Tory victory. What it also did was give credence to the right-wing narrative/perception that Labour was a 'dinosaur' party out of touch etc. The latter point was driven home by the contrasting campaigns that were run - the 'slick' Tory one which was presented as modern and the Labour one which was run along more traditional lines (and the 'longest suicide note in history'). You do also have the Falklands war etc - but also the Murdoch press was coming into its own a that time and they helped amplify these factors. The rise of the SDP made quite an impact on me at the time. In no small part because my housemate, the one who would go on to become a Labour MP, announced that he “couldn’t vote for that manifesto” and urged me and others to vote SDP as the “idealistic choice”, having been quite won over it would seem along the lines you suggest.* He then invited me to stay up and watch the election, which seemed a novel idea to me at the time, and as the night wore on it became apparent how the vote had been split. It did show both how effective the right could be at thwarting the left, and also introduced me to the idea of cuckoo politics, as of course my housemate was later to become Labour MP. A little while later I became aware of how Thatch had stacked the deck further by allowing concentration of media power in the hands of folk like Murdoch, as you mention. *some of these party factions can be quite compelling to many. E.g. Orange Bookers in 2010, and the Leave faction within Tories. Although some might argue, nonetheless pretty disastrous. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2023 7:23:40 GMT
If only they could be bothered to vote! (Not that the Tories in their voter suppression legislation are exactly helping). I shall be dragging my 22 year old son to the polling booths for the second time. Do you tell him who to vote for too? I can't imagine a more sure fire way to get someone to do the opposite of what you would like than "telling" them what to do in a secret ballot. However, I am certain he won't vote Tory - if I thought that I would leave him in bed (he is on a week's leave from his work). |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 4, 2023 7:35:58 GMT
Good luck all who are standing today: I know steve and pjw1961 are, but all the best for any others too! |
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Post by pete on May 4, 2023 7:37:38 GMT
Indeed. It is heard not from people of working age but from the comfortable retired who were perfectly aware they'd be cushioned from the impacts of their 'lets make Britain what it was like when we were young' game and who, to be blunt, don't give a toss about the impacts on those still working in the economy including I'm afraid often, their own children. If that's aimed at me, which I assume it is because I'm the one who stated that view, I would say that I wasn't perfectly aware that I'd be cushioned from Brexit effects. I did expect some short-term economic turbulence which is happening, but I'm not sure it's attributable to Brexit because of Covid and Putin. And I do care about my children and they're all doing well and they haven't noticed any Brexit-related problems either, Strange facts don't back you up. Has anybody ever said 'all' our problems are due to brexit? Not sure I've read that. But the idea some of them aren't is pure stupidity or head in sand syndrome. My biggest problem with brexit supporters is I don't remember all this "it'll take time", "i expected short-term pain" etc before brexit was voted on. I do remember £350million for the NHS, cheaper food etc. I don't remember the Tories telling us how after brexit they were going to become less democratic etc. but do remember how democracy was going to be stronger etc..will of the people and all that crap. |
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Post by pete on May 4, 2023 7:38:57 GMT
I never received a polling card. Can I still vote?
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 4, 2023 7:39:11 GMT
Am I right in thinking most counting for the local elections won't start until tomorrow?
Anyone know the figures?
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2023 7:41:12 GMT
Hate to argue with the great Sir John Curtice, but he is wrong there. You cannot compare Tory leads in local elections when in opposition nationally to Labour ones in the same circumstances. Labour ones are always lower due to the competition for anti-Tory votes, a problem the Tories do not face in reverse. This has been much commented on on his site. A Labour lead of 6-8% would still imply the Tories being removed from government at the next election.
It's hard, therefore, to see the logic in your argument.It is simple really. Apart from the brief UKIP spasm in the middle of the previous decade the Conservatives have no competition on the right. People voting Tory in local elections are also likely to vote Tory in General Elections. Therefore the level of Tory voting in local elections has historically been a indicator that can be used to forecast the position of the party had there been a GE. However, on the centre left there are a multitude of options and people will vote differently depending on the tactical position at local and national level. There is clear statistical history that Labour polls lower in local elections than in general elections and a result and the Liberal Democrats and Greens conversely poll higher. Therefore you can't read directly across from the Labour performance in locals to what they would poll in a GE. Someone (I think JamesE?) has posted a link to an Anthony Wells piece on this phenomenon many times and hireton posted this a few days back, which makes the same point (among many other interesting observations): beyondthetopline.substack.com/p/forget-the-party-spin-what-does-history |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2023 7:42:36 GMT
I never received a polling card. Can I still vote? Yes. You don't need a polling card to vote. Just tell them you name and address. But don't forget your photo ID. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2023 7:43:03 GMT
@trevor
Thanks for the information
The first form of payment isn't taxation it's effectively the same as leaving money to HMRC as an inheritance and the same rules apply just half a million is so donated per year compared to £11 billion+ to charities.
The second for self employed only is sort of paying extra tax however the HMRC will automatically offer a tax refund or offset it against future years bills by increasing the tax free allowance or crediting the amount and you have to specifically ask them not to.
No such facility exists for the 85% of workers on paye.
So the answer isn't really a simple yes it's more a no,for most people.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2023 7:43:44 GMT
Am I right in thinking most counting for the local elections won't start until tomorrow? Anyone know the figures? there are a worthwhile number of Councils counting overnight, including Braintree! |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 4, 2023 7:44:20 GMT
Am I right in thinking most counting for the local elections won't start until tomorrow? Anyone know the figures? According to the Telegraph “ The polls are open from 7am until 10pm. Approximately a quarter of the votes will then be counted overnight with the rest counted during the day tomorrow.” if that helps any? |
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Post by johntel on May 4, 2023 7:46:38 GMT
I never received a polling card. Can I still vote? Yes if you steal someone else's polling card. And don't forget to take their photo id too. |
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Post by thylacine on May 4, 2023 7:47:53 GMT
Do you tell him who to vote for too? I can't imagine a more sure fire way to get someone to do the opposite of what you would like than "telling" them what to do in a secret ballot. However, I am certain he won't vote Tory - if I thought that I would leave him in bed (he is on a week's leave from his work). My daughter is voting for the first time. Like you say telling her who to vote for wouldn't be advisable but I'm confident that due to being raised "proper" she certainly won't vote other than Labour or Green. We will vote together and take a memory photo outside the polling station . |
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Post by jimjam on May 4, 2023 7:53:34 GMT
Re Curtis'
''According to the BBC’s “projected national share”, Labour’s best local election performance since 2010 was in 2012. The party, then led by Ed Miliband, was credited with 38 per cent of the vote, seven points ahead of the Conservatives. Sir Keir Starmer’s minimal target is to beat that benchmark.
However, that would not be enough to emulate the performances of Tony Blair before the 1997 general election or of David Cameron before his success in 2010. Labour enjoyed leads of 15 points or more between 1994 and 1996. The same was true of Cameron in 2008 and 2009. Doing quite as well as that might be thought a tall order. But registering at least a double-digit lead should not. Certainly, if Labour’s lead is anything much less than that we will be left wondering whether the party really have as yet sealed a deal with the voters.''
My expectation is for a 2010 type result with a change of party leading Government so superficially I should endorse the above but I think it is over simplistic.
PJW has pointed out one flaw (Tory LE performance closer to GEs than Labour) and the other for me is when Millibands Labour achieved that PNS of 38% which was 2012 when there were 3 years to go the the GE.
A similar result tomorrow would be better as it is closer to the GE.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 4, 2023 7:55:58 GMT
With the Express yesterday suggesting the new double recombinant variants might mean a return to masking, the BBC reporting the hidden death toll of post 'mild' covid heart attacks, and both the Sun and the Mirror recently carrying articles about the risks from ongoing covid, we finally have the Daily Telegraph suggesting that there may be a stirring of realisation within the mainstream media - Good morning oh prophet of doom, who believes the human race is doomed to end because of covid. Whereas most of the world believes its over, and some of us believe it never began- not at least on anything like the scale which was claimed at the time. As epidemics go, it was a bit of a damp squib. By historical standards it would hardly have been noticed, as indeed it didnt get noticed in Hastings despite the disease arriving here early and ending all by itself before it got going in most of the UK. look at my ID picture, it shows you exactly what happened here spring 2020- nothing- because it has already come and gone. I checked zoe for you, and they are on about 50,000 new cases a day. Which is down from peak of around 100,000 through the winter. Now that could mean it will now tail off to very low levels, or it could stick at around this level through the summer, as it did last year. Seasonal variation looks approximately right for what happens classically with these sorts of diseases, though we do have this persistent permanent rate of new cases. Two interpetations possible for that, either we messed with the normal human immune response through mass re vaccination with only partially successful vaccines, or actually it isnt so very different to normal pattern for such diseases, but in the past we never conducted a mass permanent population study to test prevalence in the off season when few are seriously ill.
One of the big risks with covid has always been people scaring themselves because of new scientific discoveries like mass testing, which has confirmed cases which in the past would just have been ignored. Making this look different to past similar diseases, whereas its just that we have found out more this time round.
Did you know bad teeth can give you heart disease? Just putting that out their, whether what we really ought to be worrying about is the collapse of the Uk dental care system?
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Post by graham on May 4, 2023 7:59:41 GMT
I would have thought that (excluding Lab & Con) those parties competing for votes against the Tories are precisely the same parties who are competing for votes against Labour, in English local elections.
It's hard, therefore, to see the logic in your argument. It is simple really. Apart from the brief UKIP spasm in the middle of the previous decade the Conservatives have no competition on the right. People voting Tory in local elections are also likely to vote Tory in General Elections. Therefore the level of Tory voting in local elections has historically been a indicator that can be used to forecast the position of the party had there been a GE. However, on the centre left there are a multitude of options and people will vote differently depending on the tactical position at local and national level. There is clear statistical history that Labour polls lower in local elections than in general elections and a result and the Liberal Democrats and Greens conversely poll higher. Therefore you can't read directly across from the Labour performance in locals to what they would poll in a GE. Someone (I think JamesE?) has posted a link to an Anthony Wells piece on this phenomenon many times and hireton posted this a few days back, which makes the same point (among many other interesting observations): beyondthetopline.substack.com/p/forget-the-party-spin-what-does-historyThe Tories also poll lower in local elections. In Norwich many of the contests are Labour v Green with the latter very clearly targetting tactical Tory and LD votes. In my ward I have received several Green leaflets which include barcharts highlighting 'Tories and LDs cannot win here.' |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 4, 2023 8:07:02 GMT
I never received a polling card. Can I still vote? probably not, I didnt get one either. There isnt an election here. (The purpose of the card is to notify you there is an election, not entitle you to vote) |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 4, 2023 8:17:32 GMT
Sir John Curtice, the mainstream media's go-to psephologist, intrigues me in many ways. I admire his polling erudition and quite like his professorial quirkiness and eccentricity. I'm a fan but have come to take a few grains of salt with his regular pronouncements.
Put simply, I think he's in danger sometimes of becoming a bit of a media whore, subtly tailoring messages to suit particular audiences. Depending on who is commissioning his opinions, he sometimes leans in to polling interpretations that he might suspect his particular audience want to hear.
For example, if writing in the Times, there will be subtle reasons for Tories to be cheerful in his commentary. In the New Statesman, on the other hand, there will be gentle succour for left leaning voters. Political opinion polls are notoriously full of data that can be interpreted very flexibly. There's usually something in them for everyone!
I don't particularly blame Curtice for this flashing of ankle; it's how a lot of mainstream media political commentary play s out. However, I'd take his recent "Labour need to win by at least 10 points today" in the context of knowing for which audience Curtice was catering for. Or, maybe, who was editing his essay too!
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Post by graham on May 4, 2023 8:19:06 GMT
FPTP did not stop Wilson winning several times! A 'normal' working majority under a proper Labour government would have been far better than what we ended up with under Blair. Hmm. In 1966 labour and conservative together got 24.5 million votes, turnout 76% and 90% of the total vote. In 2019 they got 24.3 million votes, turnout 67% and 75% of the vote. In between the population rose by about 10 million people, so you might expect the electorate to have risen similarly. From these numbers the registered electorate in 1966 was 27 million and in 2019 36 million, which is about consistent with population rise. Although if you throw in demographic changes with fewer kids and more pensioners, there may be an increase in people missing from the electoral register too.
Anyway, ten million more registered electors, roughly a 1/3 increase but lab and con together actually got slightly fewer votes. The two main parties have represented fewer and fewer of the voters as time has gone by. Back in 1966 they could reasonably have claimed it was a two way fight and the voters chose one of the two. Now that is far from true. Con got 29% of the registered vote to win in 2019, whereas lab got 48% in 1966.
What you can clearly say is that 71% of UK voters did not support the current conservative government. So when discussing the 'overton window', all that matters to con and lab is the views of the 10% or so of the voters who might swap their vote between lab and con. Not the 90% who will not, for whatever reasons.
This isnt really the overton window as originally defined at all. Its just the views of a small block who like lab and con similarly. Not the views of those committed to con, committed to lab, or the third of the population who dislike both.
As late as 1966 - and indeed 1970 - the Labour and Tory national vote shares were artificially high as a result of the absence of third party candidates. The Liberals contested 330 seats in 1966 - which meant that 300 seats did not have a candidate. Circa 200 seats saw straight fights between Tory and Labour. |
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Post by shevii on May 4, 2023 8:24:14 GMT
Hate to argue with the great Sir John Curtice, but he is wrong there. You cannot compare Tory leads in local elections when in opposition nationally to Labour ones in the same circumstances. Labour ones are always lower due to the competition for anti-Tory votes, a problem the Tories do not face in reverse. This has been much commented on on his site. A Labour lead of 6-8% would still imply the Tories being removed from government at the next election. Agreed- as we said yesterday the comparison should be Miliband 18 months before a General Election in polling related to a General Election as opposed to locals where there are other choices and/or protest votes. So a 15 point lead compared to a roughly 6 point lead with Miliband. Of course this could take Lab close to minority government or even ultra hung parliament if you get a similar 18 month movement (12 points) and no one can predict the future. We can also argue about whether the Reform or Green votes are going to be identically squeezed and if the Tories are capable of a recovery. 2015 had a lot of churn with the LD vote and UKIP votes and Green & Reform are not on that scale. |
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Post by shevii on May 4, 2023 8:25:37 GMT
May the 4th be with you - always! |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 4, 2023 8:32:34 GMT
Hate to argue with the great Sir John Curtice, but he is wrong there. You cannot compare Tory leads in local elections when in opposition nationally to Labour ones in the same circumstances. Labour ones are always lower due to the competition for anti-Tory votes, a problem the Tories do not face in reverse. This has been much commented on on his site. A Labour lead of 6-8% would still imply the Tories being removed from government at the next election. Agreed- as we said yesterday the comparison should be Miliband 18 months before a General Election in polling related to a General Election as opposed to locals where there are other choices and/or protest votes. So a 15 point lead compared to a roughly 6 point lead with Miliband. Of course this could take Lab close to minority government or even ultra hung parliament if you get a similar 18 month movement (12 points) and no one can predict the future. We can also argue about whether the Reform or Green votes are going to be identically squeezed and if the Tories are capable of a recovery. 2015 had a lot of churn with the LD vote and UKIP votes and Green & Reform are not on that scale. The thing about 2015, is that Tories back then were perhaps a bit more committed to austerity than now. In which case, in principle Tories this time might be a bit more ok with buying some votes and splashing the cash? That said, Sunak doesn’t seem all that keen on it, and what happened to Truss may have been a bit chastening. They could splash a bit more nearer the time but will it be too late for a big enough impact? |
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Post by graham on May 4, 2023 8:34:37 GMT
I suspect that in 2015 Labour picked up supprt from 2010 LDs whilst losing former supporters to UKIP. Cameron stemmed the likely flow of 2010 Tory votes to UKIP with his Brexit Referendum promise - and also picked up quite a few 2010 LD votes.
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Post by Rafwan on May 4, 2023 8:43:22 GMT
There are no elections in London today. In the 2019 ‘catastrophe’, London fell 48 Labour to 32 Con.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 4, 2023 8:48:03 GMT
Sorry to burst the bubble but there are "RoC" alternatives in this LE (and all previous LEs). RoC is the wrong label but "ABCON who are not LAB, LDEM or Green" and noting that few RUK, UKIP, etc candidates are standing in most places leaves the Arch-NIMBY options of various Inds and RAs who fish from a similar pond to the kind of people who vote CON in GEs. IE some CON for GE will vote Arch-NIMBY in an LE (and some will vote Green (also Arch-NIMBY but with tree+flower planting plans) as well). Also obviously a lot of people who don't bother with LEs as we can see in turnout %s, although that does likely hurt LAB% (and in %s help LDEM) As per various folks 'forecasts' the CON might actually win back some council wards from the Arch-NIMBYs - complex reasoning explained before. Simples version being that Arch-NIMBY promises can mean powers are taken away from councils and LAs end up getting more of the "wrong houses" built in their area. So having tried Arch-NIMBY some folks might well revert to CON. Of course everyone will over analyse the results and try to make a prediction for a GE still probably 18mths away but the LoC dominance on this board does lean towards some very simplistic assumptions. * EG Uttlesford District Council: www.bishopsstortfordindependent.co.uk/news/government-confirms-special-measures-for-uttlesford-planners-9266940/ |
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