neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 4, 2023 19:04:31 GMT
Hard to believe they're still spending time on this, it's not as if there's anything else going on
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 4, 2023 19:06:25 GMT
Hard to believe they're still spending time on this, it's not as if there's anything else going on It's not as if even the target audience give a shit either. Desperation doesn't do it justice. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 4, 2023 19:15:24 GMT
Ah yes, that good old game of determining Guardian editorial stances over the years. Most of their leader writers in the 1980s were SDP members and supporters apparently and then there was the halcyon days when Seamus Milne was Comments Editor between 2001 and 2007. Milne was Corbyn's Communications man whilst he was Labour leader. In other words, they've tended to be all over the place editorially and whilst they've generally been centre left in terms of political stances, this has by no means always translated into supporting Labour, particularly at election times. This hasn't bothered me in the least and I read the paper because of the quality of its journalism and it's eclectic mix of regular contributors. Who it recommends as worthy recipients of its readers votes is an utter irrelevance to me. In journalists like Barney Ronay, Jonathan Liew, John Harris, John Crace and Marina Hyde, they posses some of my favourite sports writers and political commentators/satirists. Writers I'd read wherever they plied their trade. I would think of all the national newspapers it is the least influential of them all politically, not just because of its relatively low circulation and readership, but because it tends to eschew party political tub-thumping and is the least likely publication to be megaphoned in the mainstream broadcast media. That's the Daily Mail's role in our public discourse. P S. Didn't the Guardian once have a leader writer and regular columnist who went on to become a speechwriter for David Cameron? Julian Glover? You can't really talk about sports writers in The Guardian without mentioning David Squires' cartoons, which can be even more cutting than anything Ronay or Liew write. www.theguardian.com/football/ng-interactive/2023/jul/04/david-squires-on-the-distraction-of-a-summer-special-football-activity-sheet Thank goodness he doesn't do cricketing cartoons during the off-season (he's Australian if you didn't already know). |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 4, 2023 19:24:19 GMT
Compared to GE2019, its: SNP 37% (-8) Lab 34% (+15) Con 17% (-8) But beware of applying a simple 11.5% swing. Labour's detailed figures show them taking 25% of LD2019, 20% of Con 2019, and 16% of SNP2019, with 7% of Lab2019 going to SNP. Lab holds 89% of their 2019 vote while SNP holds 76% of theirs., plus 5% from Con and 4% from LD. This pattern would produce a somewhat lower swings in the Glasgow and Central Belt SNP/Lab marginals. For example, if these movements are applied to Glasgow East (Lab target No 10 in Scotland) , Labour takes the seat by 2 points on an 8% swing. On this basis, Labour might take 12 SNP seats on these figures, as opposed by the 20 implied by a uniform 11.5% swing. The Tories continue to hold a bit more of their 2019 share in Scotland, because unlike in England and Wales, they are not losing many votes to RefUK. The Con to Lab movement is much the same as for GB as a whole - perhaps just a bit higher. Indeed. WRT to tactical voting then in Scotland the BNATs are all ABSNP and with LAB shifting to the Right then CON/LD folks might well be more willing to vote LAB in seats where LAB are the clear SNP choice (notably the Glasgow and Central belt SNP/LAB marginals). Sadly EC's online prediction model doesn't treat 'tactical voting' in Scotland as SNP v ABSNP but taking Glasgow East* as an example then CON and LD are 'wasted votes' so it's quite possible LAB gain an 'above average' % of CON'19 and LD'19 swing voters in those kinds of seats which is balanced by CON (and LD) seeing much higher loyalty in seats where they are the clear ABSNP candidate. Historically CON and LD have been fairly good at optimising the RoC-BNAT tactical vote to maximise their seats but weren't so keen on 'lending' votes to LAB where LAB were best placed ABSNP. With LAB shifting to the Right then that might change in GE'24 and the BNAT/ABSNP parties collectively do better than 'simples' prediction models. TBC on SGP. Historically they avoided splitting the SNAT vote by mainly campaigning in seats where SNP had such a large majority that SGP could get a reasonable % to 'appear' to be more than just SNP's little sister. Not my polity or my side of the fence but given it is likely that we'll see a lot more marginal seats in GE'24 then SGP have a dilemma: stand in even less seats OR risk splitting the LoC-SNAT vote and hence being RoC-BNAT enablers. I do like a bit of irony. Having benefitted from a split BNAT vote since 2015 then the tables might turn in GE'24 and we might see the RoC-BNAT parties including the now RoC LAB in their 'tactical voting' and SGP enabling some Brucie Bonus RoC-BNAT gains by splitting the LoC-SNAT vote. * In GE'17 then CON were SNP enablers in that seat. SNP won by 75 votes (0.2%). CON were never going to win the seat but received 6,816 votes, 18.8% (+12.8%) of the vote. CON+LD in GE'19 received 19.0% of the vote but if you go back to 2010 (when LAB were last under NewLAB (ie Tory Plan B) management) then CON+LD was only 9.5% of the vote. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency) |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2023 19:34:03 GMT
In the Energy Crisis it was failure to 'hedge' market risk that exposed 'bad businesses' that had done well in the era of low/stable energy prices. Absolutely not. The smaller companies had a business model to buy and sell at cost. The government destroyed that by imposing an unprecedented price cap which gave them no option but to sell at below cost. The cap was supposed to be set at a fair level considering market costs, so they didnt make too much profit. It was never intended to force companies to make a loss. Government quite deliberately destroyed the competition in the energy market, and promised the surviviving companies that in the future they would make good all current losses. if government had been working directly for the big energy companies, it could not have done better for their interests. |
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Post by eor on Jul 4, 2023 19:47:21 GMT
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Post by graham on Jul 4, 2023 20:00:11 GMT
Labour Welsh Assembly member repeatedly reveals himself to be a pillock. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2023 20:00:13 GMT
Hard to believe they're still spending time on this, it's not as if there's anything else going on It is an object lesson in how to lose a seat like Mid Bedfordshire. The public are terrified about how to pay their food and fuel bills, well aware that NHS services are collapsing all around them and the PM is failing on his own 5 pledges and the government response is to offer to bring back pounds and ounces - which no one under 50 has ever heard of. |
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Danny
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Posts: 10,370
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Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2023 20:02:23 GMT
Sunak still hasn't read the report. His performance in front of the committee is coming in for real stick. Apparently he is also planning to miss the next two PMQ's:- I'm not sure what is surprising about that. He probably sees PMqs as just an exercise in being embarassed which isnt helping him, so why bother? He cannot condemn Johnson ex oficio first for risk of upsetting Johnsonites, and second because it may be him next. I'd guess he hopes to survive as PM whatever he does until the next election, so will not face any disciplinary action. After that, no one will care and he may not even be an MP any more. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2023 20:02:29 GMT
You're a Telegraph reader. Have they got a Glover equivalent winding up the "Telegraph faithful'? The Guardian have had many wind-ups over the years. Matthew D'Ancona was one and Simon Jenkins, Anne McEvoy and Katy Balls do the job now. Tony Blair too occasionally, although I haven't read anything from Starmer recently. Sir Keith writes in the Telegraph occasionally, doesn't he? They do occasionally have someone more to the left of the typical reader there writing something a bit provocative to someone with a right wing perspective but I haven’t yet noticed a regular like Glover was. That said, even Michael Howard seems to wind them up these days. He did an article defending his privatisations the other day and I was rather surprised at the backlash from the comments below the line, which I read with some trepidation usually. Even Telegraph readers not impressed with privatisations. (Starmer indeed does the odd article and I tend to try and cite some relevant bits when that happens). Roy Hattersley had a regular column back in the day (might have been in the Sunday edition). |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2023 20:12:12 GMT
They do occasionally have someone more to the left of the typical reader there writing something a bit provocative to someone with a right wing perspective but I haven’t yet noticed a regular like Glover was. That said, even Michael Howard seems to wind them up these days. He did an article defending his privatisations the other day and I was rather surprised at the backlash from the comments below the line, which I read with some trepidation usually. Even Telegraph readers not impressed with privatisations. (Starmer indeed does the odd article and I tend to try and cite some relevant bits when that happens). Roy Hattersley had a regular column back in the day (might have been in the Sunday edition). Back in which bleedin’ day?!?!? That is yet another trendy, new, utterly meaningless phrase that I find beyond irritating Pete. Please provide precise dates in future - preferably with a time of day (in British* Mean Time of course.) * Or English Mean Time as you would know it. |
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Post by graham on Jul 4, 2023 20:13:41 GMT
Why does Sunak not revert to previous practice re- PMQs which was two 15 minute sessions a week on Tuesdays and Thursdays? Blair brought in the present 30 minute session once a week , but Sunak is not bound by his preferences.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2023 20:14:04 GMT
There is an unusual Tuesday local government by-election today.
CAMBRIDGE DC; King’s Hedges (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
ANWAR, Zarina (Labour)
DALZELL, Jamie Leon (Liberal Democrat)
HOSSAIN, Mohamed Delowar (Conservative)
MAY, Elizabeth Alice (Green)
2023: Lab 798 (39.2%); Con 650 (31.9%); LD 305 (15.0%); Grn 285 (14.0%)
On those figures it looks fairly marginal between Labour and Conservative, but prior elections had Labour further ahead and the Lib Dems second. Given Labour are the 'establishment' in Cambridge, don't be surprised if the Lib Dems (or perhaps the Greens) do well.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 4, 2023 20:20:35 GMT
Roy Hattersley had a regular column back in the day (might have been in the Sunday edition). Back in which bleedin’ day?!?!? That is yet another trendy, new, utterly meaningless phrase that I find beyond irritating Pete. Please provide precise dates in future - preferably with a time of day (in British* Mean Time of course.) * Or English Mean Time as you would know it. In fairness to Pete, he did mention Sunday in his post. This isn't the time for cliches, Mr Skinflint, but some of your posts are now beyond the pale. IMHO, of course. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jul 4, 2023 20:22:39 GMT
For those that can't see Twitter. Here's Starmer tweeting at 8am this morning (or some eejit on his account) - This is the complete tweet.
"Keir Starmer
Labour will give communities control of their own future."
A reasonable person on any omnibus (or other form of transport) might consider that "What the fuck does that mean?" to be an appropriate response.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 4, 2023 20:25:23 GMT
Why does Sunak not revert to previous practice re- PMQs which was two 15 minute sessions a week on Tuesdays and Thursdays? Blair brought in the present 30 minute session once a week , but Sunak is not bound by his preferences. What benefit would accrue to Sunak by doing that? Two exposures, albeit shorter ones, rather than one. I would have thought, especially if he's not comfortable with the experience, he's better sticking rather than twisting, isn't he? |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 4, 2023 20:26:40 GMT
For those that can't see Twitter. Here's Starmer tweeting at 8am this morning (or some eejit on his account) - This is the complete tweet.
"Keir Starmer
Labour will give communities control of their own future."
A reasonable person on any omnibus (or other form of transport) might consider that "What the fuck does that mean?" to be an appropriate response. It means he's creeping up on the SNP in the polls, Natty. |
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Post by graham on Jul 4, 2023 20:27:05 GMT
There is an unusual Tuesday local government by-election today. CAMBRIDGE DC; King’s Hedges (Lab resigned) Candidates: ANWAR, Zarina (Labour) DALZELL, Jamie Leon (Liberal Democrat) HOSSAIN, Mohamed Delowar (Conservative) MAY, Elizabeth Alice (Green) 2023: Lab 798 (39.2%); Con 650 (31.9%); LD 305 (15.0%); Grn 285 (14.0%) On those figures it looks fairly marginal between Labour and Conservative, but prior elections had Labour further ahead and the Lib Dems second. Given Labour are the 'establishment' in Cambridge, don't be surprised if the Lib Dems (or perhaps the Greens) do well. For some reason, there was a strong Tory performance there this year. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2023 20:29:53 GMT
Back in which bleedin’ day?!?!? That is yet another trendy, new, utterly meaningless phrase that I find beyond irritating Pete. Please provide precise dates in future - preferably with a time of day (in British* Mean Time of course.) * Or English Mean Time as you would know it. In fairness to Pete, he did mention Sunday in his post. This isn't the time for cliches, Mr Skinflint, but some of your posts are now beyond the pale. IMHO, of course. Oh well, Sunday! That certainly narrows it down a bit - though I assume ole Pete would have been too busy at prayer* to notice stuff like dates and years and stuff. * “ Dear Guv, please stop them illegal immigrants. Oh…..and the legal ones please.” |
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jul 4, 2023 20:32:45 GMT
For those that can't see Twitter. Here's Starmer tweeting at 8am this morning (or some eejit on his account) - This is the complete tweet.
"Keir Starmer
Labour will give communities control of their own future."
A reasonable person on any omnibus (or other form of transport) might consider that "What the fuck does that mean?" to be an appropriate response. It means he's creeping up on the SNP in the polls, Natty. |
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Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2023 20:33:48 GMT
They were pretty happy with the Cameron/Clegg coalition as well (which stance did apparently cause some arguments in the newsroom) and as all who read it at the time will know, 80-90% of Guardian comment pieces were hostile to Corbyn - Owen Jones being the major exception. My recollection is that they started happy but gradually turned far more critical towards the end (including towards Lib Dems). Some of this turnaround perhaps came from their readership not being happy, but I think also as they discovered that austerity hadn't worked the way it was supposed to. |
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neilj
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Posts: 6,393
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Post by neilj on Jul 4, 2023 20:35:15 GMT
Roy Hattersley had a regular column back in the day (might have been in the Sunday edition). Back in which bleedin’ day?!?!? That is yet another trendy, new, utterly meaningless phrase that I find beyond irritating Pete. Please provide precise dates in future - preferably with a time of day (in British* Mean Time of course.) * Or English Mean Time as you would know it. Quite right, you tell him, back in the day we'd never say back in the day |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2023 20:38:11 GMT
Back in which bleedin’ day?!?!? That is yet another trendy, new, utterly meaningless phrase that I find beyond irritating Pete. Please provide precise dates in future - preferably with a time of day (in British* Mean Time of course.) * Or English Mean Time as you would know it. Quite right, you tell him, back in the day we'd never say back in the day Well I didn’t but *they* did definitely. The expression has a heritage wot is beyond rich. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2023 20:40:08 GMT
Roy Hattersley had a regular column back in the day (might have been in the Sunday edition). Back in which bleedin’ day?!?!? That is yet another trendy, new, utterly meaningless phrase that I find beyond irritating Pete. Please provide precise dates in future - preferably with a time of day (in British* Mean Time of course.) * Or English Mean Time as you would know it. It was yesteryear, once upon a time, long ago, when we were young. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2023 20:40:43 GMT
For those that can't see Twitter. Here's Starmer tweeting at 8am this morning (or some eejit on his account) - This is the complete tweet.
"Keir Starmer
Labour will give communities control of their own future."
A reasonable person on any omnibus (or other form of transport) might consider that "What the fuck does that mean?" to be an appropriate response. The traveller can be easily enlightened. It is a reference to this: labour.org.uk/page/a-new-britain/ |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2023 20:41:32 GMT
It means he's creeping up on the SNP in the polls, Natty. I think a “reasonable” person would just think “Oh, that was a joke.” Certainly made me smile - which I find to be a tell-tale sign. Anyway, carry on moaning.  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2023 20:42:13 GMT
Back in which bleedin’ day?!?!? That is yet another trendy, new, utterly meaningless phrase that I find beyond irritating Pete. Please provide precise dates in future - preferably with a time of day (in British* Mean Time of course.) * Or English Mean Time as you would know it. It was yesteryear, once upon a time, long ago, when we were young. You’ve never been young surely?!?!? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2023 20:42:23 GMT
Sajid Javid admited on R4 that the Conservative Party won't review the operating & funding model of the NHS because it is politically difficult. He has called for a Royal Commission to examine/compare other national models. OECD and Kings Fund have both recently published loads of stats. A few selected from both :- OECD-"Health at a glance-Europe":- Health Expenditure per capita ( 2020 or nearest) Top three of 38 countries- Switz./Germ/Norw. UK-12th Health Expenditure % GDP ( 2020 or nearest) Top 3 of 38 countries-Germ/France/UK Life expectancy at birth( 2021 or nearest) Top 3 Switz/Iceland/Norw. UK 20th Kings Fund-"How does the NHS compare to the health care systems of ( 18) other (similar) countries? " July 2023. The countries compared are :- Australia Denmark Greece Netherlands Sweden Austria Finland Ireland New Zealand United Kingdom Belgium France Italy Portugal United States Canada Germany Japan Spain. Their health systems are categorised in six clusters as follows :- 1-"Extensive reliance on market mechanisms in regulating both basic and ‘over-the-basic’ insurance coverage and abundant private provision of health care"-Germany /Netherlands/USA 2-"Public basic insurance coverage combined with private insurance beyond the basic coverage. Heavy reliance on market mechanisms at the provider level, with wide patient choice among providers and fairly large incentives to produce high volumes of services contained by gatekeeping arrangements"-Australia, Belgium, Canada, France. 3-"Public basic insurance coverage with little private insurance beyond the basic coverage. Extensive private provision of care, with wide patient choice among providers and fairly large incentives to produce high volumes of services. No gatekeeping and soft budget constraint. Limited information on quality and prices to stimulate competition"-Austria/Greece/Japan 4-"Mostly public insurance. Users are given ample choice of providers but private supply is limited and prices tightly regulated. Gatekeeping is virtually non-existent"-Sweden. 5-"Mostly public insurance. Health care is provided by a heavily regulated public system and the role of gatekeeping is important. Patient choice among providers is limited and the budget constraint imposed via the budget process is rather soft"-Denmark, Finland, Portugal, Spain 6-"Mostly public insurance. Health care is mainly provided by a heavily regulated public system, with strict gatekeeping, little decentralisation and a tight spending limit imposed via the budget process"-Ireland/Italy New Zealand/Uk Health spending per capita-2019. Top three-USA/Germ/Netherlands UK 5th Health spending % gdp-2020] Top three-USA/Canada/Germany UK 11th Life expectancy at birth 2018/2020:- Top three -male-Jap/Austral/Swe. UK 17th Top three-female-Jap/France/Spain UK 18th (I suppose the divergence between these two studies for the same criteria shows how difficult health care comparisons are-though they are comparing different groups of countries) It is important to note that life expectancy is about a lot more than a country's health system. Diet is a huge factor, with the western diet high in meat, fat, sugar and salt being a disaster. the Mediterranean diet is much better, as is any cuisine high in fish and veg and low in meat and carbs. A major problem in this country is how the RoC press always start bleating about 'the nanny state' whenever anyone tries to take positive steps on this issue. So if you are relaxed about life expectancy have a look at those two reports on outcomes for treatment of serious disease. Or just keep worshiping at the NHS shrine with the approved doctrine. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2023 20:45:46 GMT
It means he's creeping up on the SNP in the polls, Natty. You know perfectly well what it relates to. You have commented on Brown's devolution proposals at length, and even accepted they are significant in relation to English local government. |
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neilj
Member
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Post by neilj on Jul 4, 2023 20:48:45 GMT
When he's right he's right as we said back in the day
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