c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2023 19:11:12 GMT
It is no good pointing to this oil shock or that war or this emergence of a third party as the reasons for Labour's many defeats. The Conservatives faced the same political environment and consistently came out as the winners. Labour needs to learn how to win under FPTP. I for one am fed up of losing. This is ostensibly a board about polling, explaining the polls. From a campaigning perspective you might be ok going “our person won, the end!”, but the impact of many different things on polling is of interest. It was already over before Blair got a sniff. See the rest of my post. It is possible Blair might have gotten more votes than Smith. But nonetheless with split votes it can be really quite hard for Labour to win without an implosion. The unfortunate thing for Miliband is that being in coalition meant LDs weren’t taking as many votes off Labour, giving him a better chance. So the stoking of immigration as an issue may well have meant Miliband lost votes to UKIP instead. |
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Post by graham on May 3, 2023 19:21:32 GMT
It is possible Blair might have gotten more votes than Smith. But nonetheless with split votes it can be really quite hard for Labour to win without an implosion. The unfortunate thing for Miliband is that being in coalition meant LDs weren’t taking as many votes off Labour, giving him a better chance. So the stoking of immigration may well have meant Miliband lost votes to UKUP instead. The evidence there is far from conclusive. The sharp fall in the Liberal vote in 1951 compared with 1950 - mainly due to far fewer candidates in the field - benefitted the Tories. Conversely the Liberal revivals under Grimond and Thorpe prior to the 1964 and 1974 elections were probably disproportionately at Tory expense. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2023 19:23:39 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,680
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2023 19:24:01 GMT
It is possible Blair might have gotten more votes than Smith. But nonetheless with split votes it can be really quite hard for Labour to win without an implosion. The unfortunate thing for Miliband is that being in coalition meant LDs weren’t taking as many votes off Labour, giving him a better chance. So the stoking of immigration may well have meant Miliband lost votes to UKUP instead. The evidence there is far from conclusive. The sharp fall in the Liberal vote in 1951 compared with 1950 - mainly due to far fewer candidates in the field - benefitted the Tories. Conversely the Liberal revivals under Grimond and Thorpe prior to the 1964 and 1974 elections were probably disproportionately at Tory expense. Yes I’m talking post-SDP |
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Post by James E on May 3, 2023 19:25:07 GMT
As for Miliband, others argued in the past he got done in part by the rise in the UKIP vote. Here’s the graph anyways, see whst you think… [graph deleted] That graph tells us nothing about where UKIP got their voters from. But an analysis of YouGov's polls immdiately before GE2015 showed that they took 15% of Con2010 voters, 10% of LD2010 and 6% of Lab 2010. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,680
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2023 19:29:14 GMT
As for Miliband, others argued in the past he got done in part by the rise in the UKIP vote. Here’s the graph anyways, see whst you think… [graph deleted] That graph tells us nothing about where UKIP got their voters from. But an analysis of YouGov's polls immdiately before GE2015 showed that they took 15% of Con2010 voters, 10% of LD2010 and 6% of Lab 2010. Ah, but it’s not all about a comparison with 2010. For example, it might well be that initially UKIP took more from the Tories, but as time wore on, and immigration got hyped, UKIP took an increasing number from Labour. Including maybe some who had switched to Labour post-2010 when they were riding higher at one point. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 3, 2023 19:32:12 GMT
Anybody got a Cup Final ticket they don't want?
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Post by James E on May 3, 2023 19:33:58 GMT
That graph tells us nothing about where UKIP got their voters from. But an analysis of YouGov's polls immdiately before GE2015 showed that they took 15% of Con2010 voters, 10% of LD2010 and 6% of Lab 2010. Ah, but it’s not all about a comparison with 2010. For example, it might well be that initially UKIP took more from the Tories, but as time wore on, and immigration got hyped, UKIP took an increasing number from Labour. Including maybe some who had switched to Labour post-2010. Who needs polling when you can just use guesswork? |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2023 19:34:56 GMT
Anybody got a Cup Final ticket they don't want? Good to see you back batty. Dropped in for the Locals? |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,680
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2023 19:37:32 GMT
Ah, but it’s not all about a comparison with 2010. For example, it might well be that initially UKIP took more from the Tories, but as time wore on, and immigration got hyped, UKIP took an increasing number from Labour. Including maybe some who had switched to Labour post-2010. Who needs polling when you can just use guesswork? Considering different possibilities, forming hypotheses to consider is normal in science James. |
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patrickbrian
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These things seem small and undistinguishable, like far off mountains turned into clouds
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Post by patrickbrian on May 3, 2023 19:40:19 GMT
Good luck to everyone standing or campaigning tomorrow.
My vote has floated for a long time between Labour, Green and Lib Dem. Tomorrow I'll be voting Lib Dem, mainly because of local factors.
I would guess there'll be a few surprises. I look forward to all your excellent analyses!
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Post by James E on May 3, 2023 19:41:53 GMT
Who needs polling when you can just use guesswork? Considering different possibilities, forming hypotheses to consider is normal in science James. And so is evidence. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,680
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2023 19:44:32 GMT
Considering different possibilities, forming hypotheses to consider is normal in science James. And so is evidence. I know, that’s why I put it forward as a possibility: “see what you think”. I didn’t claim it was absolutely proven. (And it’s helpful to use the right evidence, not just 2010). But it’s of interest how much stoking immigration as an issue might affect Labour’s vote since it may be relevant again. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 3, 2023 20:08:40 GMT
Anybody got a Cup Final ticket they don't want? Good to see you back batty. Dropped in for the Locals? Indeed so, pj. A brief return I think, but elections are what first brought me to this place some 14 years ago and they are the political events that usually attract me back after periods of absence. I see from a brief scan of recent posts that you are standing tomorrow. Candidature was the final hurdle of activism that I had neither the gumption nor gonads to scale, although I was often invited to stand; usually as a token paper Labour candidate in an unwinnable ward! I admire you for taking the plunge and all the very best for tomorrow. Now marooned in deepest blue South Worcestershire, my only involvement in these elections will be to make a lonely and likely futile journey to Sedgeberrow Village Hall early tomorrow morning, there to cast a vote for candidate yet unknown. I've received no literature nor seen any posters so have no idea who is standing. All the local newspapers have died in these parts so I haven't been able to follow anything that way either. It will be a complete novelty for me because I will enter the polling booth with absolutely no idea what candidates or parties will be represented on the ballot paper. Of course, it will be anybody but the Tory who will receive my vote, even if the only candidate representing that noble sentiment is standing for the Independent Pheasant-Shooting Alliance! I will give my fuller thoughts on the national political picture, and how that might play out tomorrow in due course. Probably after "Race Around the World" and a few tinctures! All the best to one and all in the meantime. |
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Post by hireton on May 3, 2023 20:21:20 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2023 20:26:55 GMT
Culture wars may not be the silver bullet the tories think it is... Sunak claimed at PMQs today that you have fewer potholes under a Conservative council - that would get a hollow laugh in these parts. My journey to work consists of dodging craters. he is right then - less potholes, more craters. Thats the clever way to use statistics. People want a change like less potholes, then give it to them by delivering craters. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2023 20:29:11 GMT
It's as if Covid and the war in Ukraine never happened. They have certainly been a godsend to the current government. |
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Post by James E on May 3, 2023 20:38:52 GMT
That Savanta poll of 18-25 year olds is not as bad as it might be for the Tories.
YouGov's last 5 age 18-24 cross breaks average at:
Con 9%
Lab 60%
LD 8%
Green 10%
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,566
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2023 20:58:22 GMT
That Savanta poll of 18-25 year olds is not as bad as it might be for the Tories. YouGov's last 5 age 18-24 cross breaks average at: Con 9% Lab 60% LD 8% Green 10% If only they could be bothered to vote! (Not that the Tories in their voter suppression legislation are exactly helping). I shall be dragging my 22 year old son to the polling booths for the second time. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 3, 2023 21:01:27 GMT
Thanks to pjw for that. I would just add as a qualifier to this, that R&W do not use a panel, and their cross-breaks are far more variable than those of YouGov or Opinium. The last 2 full Scottish YouGov's showed 13% of 2019SNP>Lab and 13% of 2019SLab>SNP (after excl DKs). This was in the context of a 37/28 SNP lead. The previous YouGov in March had 12% SNP>Lab and 11% SLab>SNP. Which would imply that the reason Labour have closed the gap on the SNP is not so much a big increase in 2019 SNP switching to Labour but rather those 2019 Labour voters who had moved to the SNP have come back. Add in some gains from the Conservatives and SNP and there you have it.
Taking the average VI from the 6 Scots polls over the last month, the swing from SCon to SLab since 2019 is 9.7%, while the swing from SNP to SLab is 9.9%. In 2019, both the sections of the electorate, who would make SLab one of their choices, decided that their non-SLab party was a more useful way to cast their vote. Current polling suggests that both sections now see a SLab vote as being more appropriate. |
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 3, 2023 21:21:22 GMT
BBS has done a seat projection for Holyrood based on the R&W poll -
Projecting Redfield & Wilton 30 Apr - 2 May into seats (changes v 31 Mar - 1 Apr / 2021):
Labour ~ 38 (+8 / +16)
SNP ~ 37 (-14 / -27)
Conservative ~ 25 (+2 / -6)
Green ~ 17 (+7 /+9)
Lib Dem ~ 12 (-3 / +8)
(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)
Although it should be noted that "pollsters who use the 'second vote' wording have historically been less accurate (understating the SNP list vote) than those that don't." (McGeoghegan)
It's not just "the way you tell 'em" (as Frank Carson was wont to say but also "the way you ask 'em".
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Post by alec on May 3, 2023 21:35:19 GMT
oldnat - "While there is obviously churn, it remains generally true that, in Scotland, there is a significant section of the electorate..." I just got back from the annual elections for the management committee of the UK Creamery Industry Processors Association. There was a lot of churn in those votes too.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,566
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2023 21:38:07 GMT
Good to see you back batty. Dropped in for the Locals? Indeed so, pj. A brief return I think, but elections are what first brought me to this place some 14 years ago and they are the political events that usually attract me back after periods of absence. I see from a brief scan of recent posts that you are standing tomorrow. Candidature was the final hurdle of activism that I had neither the gumption nor gonads to scale, although I was often invited to stand; usually as a token paper Labour candidate in an unwinnable ward! I admire you for taking the plunge and all the very best for tomorrow. I'm one step up from paper - cardboard perhaps? The ward I'm standing in would need almost a 15% swing to capture. The opinion polling there has been for the locals suggests a swing of between 3.5% (lowest) and 7% (highest) so nowhere near what I would need. All the work has gone into other, target, wards - including most of my own efforts. In short in would be little short of amazing if I won - although Labour won in the predecessor wards in 1995 and 1999. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 3, 2023 21:39:10 GMT
oldnat - "While there is obviously churn, it remains generally true that, in Scotland, there is a significant section of the electorate..." I just got back from the annual elections for the management committee of the UK Creamery Industry Processors Association. There was a lot of churn in those votes too. |
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Post by mercian on May 3, 2023 21:59:14 GMT
mercian "I am the type of 'brexitanian' who would rather be poor with the ability to democratically kick out my rulers than rich and without that ability" That's interesting remind me how we had the choice to kick out the last two Tory prime ministers or appoint the last and the current one. And did I miss the chance we had to appoint our head of state? I've never had a problem with noticing that many of your posts are hilarious. At a general election we can kick out the incumbent government. Can you explain how we could kick out even the British EU Commissioners? Our head of state is not our ruler in any meaningful sense therefore that's irrelevant. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2023 22:01:26 GMT
“The artificial intelligence race is already producing losers. On Tuesday, education companies trading on the London and New York stock exchanges saw hundreds of millions wiped from their valuations after Chegg, a US firm that provides online help to students for writing and maths work, said ChatGPT was affecting customer growth.
The firm said it had seen a “significant spike” in students using the technology, and withdrew its profits guidance for the rest of the year, warning revenues had already been hit. It shares almost halved in value. The ripples were felt in London, where education giant Pearson’s stock closed down 15%.”
…
“In the long run I think humans will adapt but in the short term we are talking about businesses having to adapt in a period of weeks rather than months and years. I think that has the potential to cause harm,” he says, adding that there is a gap between the speed of disruption caused by these AI breakthroughs and humanity’s ability to adapt and change.“www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/may/03/ai-race-drives-down-stock-market-valuations-of-education-firms
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,680
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2023 22:08:58 GMT
Anything less than 10-point lead in local elections should worry Labour
…
“According to the BBC’s “projected national share”, Labour’s best local election performance since 2010 was in 2012. The party, then led by Ed Miliband, was credited with 38 per cent of the vote, seven points ahead of the Conservatives. Sir Keir Starmer’s minimal target is to beat that benchmark.
However, that would not be enough to emulate the performances of Tony Blair before the 1997 general election or of David Cameron before his success in 2010. Labour enjoyed leads of 15 points or more between 1994 and 1996. The same was true of Cameron in 2008 and 2009. Doing quite as well as that might be thought a tall order. But registering at least a double-digit lead should not. Certainly, if Labour’s lead is anything much less than that we will be left wondering whether the party really have as yet sealed a deal with the voters.
Sir John Curtice is professor of politics, Strathclyde University, senior research fellow at NatCen Social Research and writer for The UK in a Changing Europe“
Times
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Post by EmCat on May 3, 2023 22:24:01 GMT
Good to see you back batty. Dropped in for the Locals? if the only candidate representing that noble sentiment is standing for the Independent Pheasant-Shooting Alliance! I'm intrigued with this political marriage of convenience between the Independent Pheasant and the Shooting Alliance  |
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Post by mercian on May 3, 2023 22:24:10 GMT
mercian Precisely how do you think you make a voluntary donation to the HMRC Most people would regard an individual who ranks in the richest thousand in the UK such as Rishi Sunak as rich and would find it bizarre that he pays a tax rate nearly 40% lower than the head of his own police close protection team and 35% less than his cleaner I suppose you could send them a cheque with a covering letter. I'm surprised that there doesn't appear to be a way of doing it on the internet, as I'm sure some public-spirited (or guilty-feeling) individuals would donate. I seem to remember that this used to occasionally until the 1920s at least when businessmen became successful and caught up with taxes they had avoided earlier in their careers. As for Sunak, I think you said in an earlier post he'd paid over £1m in tax in the last 3 years. As that's probably more than I earned before tax in my entire career I'd say he's paying his dues. I've never understood the point of a 'progressive' tax rate anyway. Let's pretend there's a flat rate of 10% for everybody and that there is no tax-free allowance (just to keep it simple for your benefit). If someone earns £20,000 they will pay £2,000 tax. Their boss, who earns £100,000 pays £10,000. He earns 5 times as much and pays 5 times as much tax. Seems fair to me. There's another angle too. Imagine if you can a scenario where the first £100K is taxed at 10% and then a 20% tax rate kicks in. Our £100k earner is currently picking up £90K. His employer wants to give him an extra £10k in take-home pay because he's good at the job. The gross pay will now have to be £112,500. If his tax rate was 10% his gross pay would only have to be £111,111. Thus 'progressive' taxation encourages wage inflation for the higher paid people, which most people agree is probably a bad thing. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2023 22:26:48 GMT
Anything less than 10-point lead in local elections should worry Labour
… “According to the BBC’s “projected national share”, Labour’s best local election performance since 2010 was in 2012. The party, then led by Ed Miliband, was credited with 38 per cent of the vote, seven points ahead of the Conservatives. Sir Keir Starmer’s minimal target is to beat that benchmark.
However, that would not be enough to emulate the performances of Tony Blair before the 1997 general election or of David Cameron before his success in 2010. Labour enjoyed leads of 15 points or more between 1994 and 1996. The same was true of Cameron in 2008 and 2009. Doing quite as well as that might be thought a tall order. But registering at least a double-digit lead should not. Certainly, if Labour’s lead is anything much less than that we will be left wondering whether the party really have as yet sealed a deal with the voters.
Sir John Curtice is professor of politics, Strathclyde University, senior research fellow at NatCen Social Research and writer for The UK in a Changing Europe“
Times Hate to argue with the great Sir John Curtice, but he is wrong there. You cannot compare Tory leads in local elections when in opposition nationally to Labour ones in the same circumstances. Labour ones are always lower due to the competition for anti-Tory votes, a problem the Tories do not face in reverse. This has been much commented on on his site. A Labour lead of 6-8% would still imply the Tories being removed from government at the next election. |
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