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Post by mercian on May 19, 2023 20:27:20 GMT
In terms of the earth's population, and the consequences for the planet of it endlessly increasing (as it has since the 10th century), I was struck by this recent scientific study looking at future trends. It points to it peaking at 8 billion by 2050 and then quite rapidly declining to 6.5 billion by the end of this century. Sub-replacement fertility, a factor at play already in some parts of the world, is thought to be a key cause. There are others, which the study outlines. www.livescience.com/worlds-population-could-plummet-to-six-billion-by-the-end-of-the-century-new-study-suggestsOne would think, certainly in the long term, that this is good news both for humanity and the planet. The wellbeing of the two, of course, being inextricably linked. Very few of us currently alive today will live long enough to see the benefits of less of us being around, but it appears that nature forever retains a capacity, over time, to heal itself and get back into equilibrium. By the way, in terms of how to to expedite population decline, hands up all those who would like to consider mass sterilisation programmes and euthanasia. Starting with our own families, maybe. Philanthropic charity beginning at home and all that. The problem is in the transition period when you have an aging population and 1 working adult possibly supporting 4 grandparents and 2 parents. Ultimately yes the reduction can only be good for the planet. But what would our descendants do with all the surplus housing they'd have? I suppose they could be garages for robots? |
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Post by mercian on May 19, 2023 20:32:53 GMT
I appreciate that you and almost 9million other people live in London* and that most of London is at/near Sea Level, etc... I did live there once but anyone can check a topography map and work out where might not be a good place to live with Global warming and rising Sea Levels** Sea level will only rise about 200 foot if all the ice melts. I'm very near what is reputed to be the highest point between Wales and the Urals so I'm all right Jack. No need to move to the colonies Wales or Scotland. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 19, 2023 20:36:06 GMT
I appreciate that you and almost 9million other people live in London* and that most of London is at/near Sea Level, etc... I did live there once but anyone can check a topography map and work out where might not be a good place to live with Global warming and rising Sea Levels** Sea level will only rise about 200 foot if all the ice melts. I'm very near what is reputed to be the highest point between Wales and the Urals so I'm all right Jack. No need to move to the colonies Wales or Scotland. Mm you might find you have no power or anything to live on or any healthcare though. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 19, 2023 20:38:36 GMT
That's a prediction. I'll wait and see if it comes true. "Britain is almost certain to avoid recession this year as two new surveys show businesses are hiring at their strongest pace in half a year and households are upbeat about their finances. Figures from Lloyds Bank show that almost every sector of the UK economy added to its workforce last month. The lender said the hiring was led by estate agents and software companies." biz.crast.net/the-uk-is-firmly-on-its-way-out-of-recession-with-a-boom-in-recruitment-and-growth/One would hope the naysayers will be forced to eat their words. If you're so pleased with the way everything is going then I guess you'll be rewarding the party that brought you all this at the next election then? You'll be in a dwindling band though. |
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Post by mercian on May 19, 2023 20:39:28 GMT
befuddledbadger “ By the way, in terms of how to to expedite population decline, hands up all those who would like to consider mass sterilisation programmes and euthanasia. Starting with our own families, maybe. Philanthropic charity beginning at home and all that.” I’m sure there’s a popular game show there somewhere. Maybe a competition that raises money for worthwhile causes in which you vote for someone to euthanise? FM Brilliant! Yes, get a group of about 50 together (so they all think they've got a good chance of survival), and have mega prizes for say the top 5. The audience would vote for someone to save each week. When it gets down to 6 left the prizes start. Last one left gets zapped. I bet Japan would go for it (c) Mercian. I'll give you a cut.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 19, 2023 20:45:42 GMT
You an iron too? We’ve just booked flights to Prague via Vienna - won’t get tickets for the game I’m sure but who cares. Partaayyyyyy as a mate of mine would put it 🙂⚒ Sounds like a great outing. Envy, envy! Good luck with tickets. Yep, definitely an iron. I live just off Green Street, so it is in the blood. Sadly, I can’t get there often these days, but I followed them to Wembley in ‘75 and also had a season ticket for last season at Upton Park (in the old lower south bank - terrific), so saw the brilliant final match agains Man U under floods.
Irons XXXXX |
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Post by jib on May 19, 2023 20:49:03 GMT
If you're so pleased with the way everything is going then I guess you'll be rewarding the party that brought you all this at the next election then? You'll be in a dwindling band though. The Tory slur thrown about cheaply. Believe me, being a Tory is a really stigma in these parts, and I'm certainly not one. I could say I was disappointed, but with you the bar hit the floor a long time ago. |
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Post by neilj on May 19, 2023 21:10:22 GMT
It's almost as if they've something to hide
It does also give further evidence that the checks and balances in our system won't work if the ruling party can block enquiries and in addition over rule the Judgment of independent people such as the advisor on ministerial standards
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Post by domjg on May 19, 2023 21:21:52 GMT
If you're so pleased with the way everything is going then I guess you'll be rewarding the party that brought you all this at the next election then? You'll be in a dwindling band though. The Tory slur thrown about cheaply. Believe me, being a Tory is a really stigma in these parts, and I'm certainly not one. I could say I was disappointed, but with you the bar hit the floor a long time ago. Continuing to support brexit despite all the evidence of the damage it's doing and the company you're keeping in so doing is a pretty darn low bar I'd say. Or do you also believe that it's a conspiracy of the 'liberal elite' that has stopped it being a resounding success? |
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Post by JohnC on May 19, 2023 21:26:25 GMT
pjw1961 - housing - a Natural England study from a few years ago concluded that well designed housing on much farmland would increase biodiversity. Sad, but true. I can only call it as I see it. When I am in the countryside round these parts I have seen rabbits, hares, foxes, deer, pheasants, birds of prey, badgers, etc. In the built up areas very little except domestic cats and pigeons. When canvassing recently I was alarmed at the growing proportion of people who had replaced their lawns with that green plastic stuff. In fact the new build housing estates tend to have the largest possible house crammed onto the smallest possible patch of land, resulting in tiny gardens - for profit maximisation of course. Here in the urban jungle we have a lot of wild life, including foxes, seals, squirrels, red kites and buzzards, rats and more recently a flock of parakeets. The tall buildings of Canary Wharf and the City are perfect vantage points for birds of prey looking down on an unsuspecting pigeon flying far below. |
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Post by jib on May 19, 2023 21:37:00 GMT
The Tory slur thrown about cheaply. Believe me, being a Tory is a really stigma in these parts, and I'm certainly not one. I could say I was disappointed, but with you the bar hit the floor a long time ago. Continuing to support brexit despite all the evidence of the damage it's doing and the company you're keeping in so doing is a pretty darn low bar I'd say. Or do you also believe that it's a conspiracy of the 'liberal elite' that has stopped it being a resounding success? The UK GDP growth (4.0%) outperformed the Euro area (3.5%) in 2022, and significantly Germany (1.8%) and France (2.6%) and US (2.1%)* The only "negativity" is from aggrieved Remainers angry that their much dreamed of "we told you so" recession for the UK in 2023 looks like evaporating in an overheated boom. * Source: IMF; World Economic Outlook |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 19, 2023 21:42:22 GMT
Interesting (though unconfirmed) report that the Wagner Group are relocating their most experienced fighters, and their weapons, from Ukraine to Sudan.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 19, 2023 21:43:46 GMT
AI ‘is clear and present danger to education’
School leaders announce joint response to tech
“Gillian Keegan, the education secretary, told a conference this month that AI would have the power to transform a teacher’s day-to-day work, taking out much of the “heavy lifting” by marking and making lesson plans.
Head teachers’ fears go beyond AI’s potential to aid cheating, encompassing the impact on children’s mental and physical health and even the future of the teaching profession.”
Times
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 19, 2023 21:47:58 GMT
Of course, even if HoC agreed to this Bill (rather unlikely, one would think), nothing could prevent a future UK Parliament simply ditching it if it suited the UK government of the day.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 19, 2023 21:53:08 GMT
Continuing to support brexit despite all the evidence of the damage it's doing and the company you're keeping in so doing is a pretty darn low bar I'd say. Or do you also believe that it's a conspiracy of the 'liberal elite' that has stopped it being a resounding success? The UK GDP growth (4.0%) outperformed the Euro area (3.5%) in 2022, and significantly Germany (1.8%) and France (2.6%) and US (2.1%)* The only "negativity" is from aggrieved Remainers angry that their much dreamed of "we told you so" recession for the UK in 2023 looks like evaporating in an overheated boom. * Source: IMF; World Economic Outlook Because we sunk to a lower level than most others during the pandemic is the only reason for that. See pjw1961 above. Interesting that you don't agree with Nige or in fact most of the British public or the motor industry in that you continue to believe brexit is going swimmingly. |
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Post by jib on May 19, 2023 21:53:39 GMT
jib It remains the intent of the liberal democrats to rejoin the European union when practicable, this was confirmed at conference, so we are a rejoin party , to be fair to you the roadmap you outline is correct , the easiest way to secure single market membership would of course to be in the European union. You vs AI? I'll go with AI. Thanks. |
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Post by jib on May 19, 2023 21:55:57 GMT
The UK GDP growth (4.0%) outperformed the Euro area (3.5%) in 2022, and significantly Germany (1.8%) and France (2.6%) and US (2.1%)* The only "negativity" is from aggrieved Remainers angry that their much dreamed of "we told you so" recession for the UK in 2023 looks like evaporating in an overheated boom. * Source: IMF; World Economic Outlook Because we sunk to a lower level than most others during the pandemic is the only reason for that. See pjw1961 above. Interesting that you don't agree with Nige or in fact most of the British public or the motor industry in that you continue to believe brexit is going swimmingly. That was Covid, and a botched lockdown. Now we're free from that, and factoring in the Ukraine war, it's pretty good. As I said, 2023 looking like a bumper year now and the naysayers got it wrong. Again. |
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Post by domjg on May 19, 2023 22:00:52 GMT
Because we sunk to a lower level than most others during the pandemic is the only reason for that. See pjw1961 above. Interesting that you don't agree with Nige or in fact most of the British public or the motor industry in that you continue to believe brexit is going swimmingly. That was Covid, and a botched lockdown. Now we're free from that, and factoring in the Ukraine war, it's pretty good. As I said, 2023 looking like a bumper year now and the naysayers got it wrong. Again. Gosh it really feels like 2023 is a bumper year doesn't it? Everyone's just so relaxed and optimistic aren't they?... I imagine in Bangor people are throwing their surplus 20s out the window are they? |
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Post by jib on May 19, 2023 22:04:52 GMT
That was Covid, and a botched lockdown. Now we're free from that, and factoring in the Ukraine war, it's pretty good. As I said, 2023 looking like a bumper year now and the naysayers got it wrong. Again. Gosh it really feels like 2023 is a bumper year doesn't it? Everyone's just so relaxed and optimistic aren't they?... I imagine in Bangor people are throwing their surplus 20s out the window are they? No, you'll have to head to Beaumaris for that sort of thing. reuters.screenocean.com/record/559369 |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 19, 2023 23:08:05 GMT
Because we sunk to a lower level than most others during the pandemic is the only reason for that. See pjw1961 above. Interesting that you don't agree with Nige or in fact most of the British public or the motor industry in that you continue to believe brexit is going swimmingly.
EDIT : "I imagine in Bangor people are throwing their surplus 20s out the window are they?"
jib may be unlikely to know what those in Bangor are doing - given that he said that he had moved to somewhere in England (where the sewage is more obvious). |
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Post by laszlo4new on May 19, 2023 23:11:57 GMT
GDP is quite useless for measuring economic performance. I prefer the Census Bureau's approach. It actually predicted the 2008 crisis, and shows no boom (in the US) ever since.
Just very briefly: GDP is new value (profit and wage) plus depreciation based on sectoral sampling. As retail, banking, etc don't produce any new value it can have a very strong influence on the figures (cf. Kuznets's speech at a Nobel-prize conference in the 1960s). In addition, higher productivity appears to be an add on in the GDP, but if the accounts are done properly, higher productivity actually reduces the GDP if less is sold, but increases the GDP if it is realised in foreign trade.
It would be a long, long post to write it up, but I may do it (specifically about the UK), because it would show the essential economic problems of the UK, the similarities with the main economies of Europe, but also the sharp differences.
And just to make it more controversial - the UK (and most of Europe) needs a proper recession to enable firms to write off a lot of assets and lay offs announced during this week won't be sufficient. Of course, it would have a very negative influence on the government party.(the current one or Labour), but it cannot be postponed for very long.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 19, 2023 23:57:49 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 20, 2023 4:30:13 GMT
GDP is quite useless for measuring economic performance. I prefer the Census Bureau's approach. It actually predicted the 2008 crisis, and shows no boom (in the US) ever since. Just very briefly: GDP is new value (profit and wage) plus depreciation based on sectoral sampling. As retail, banking, etc don't produce any new value it can have a very strong influence on the figures (cf. Kuznets's speech at a Nobel-prize conference in the 1960s). In addition, higher productivity appears to be an add on in the GDP, but if the accounts are done properly, higher productivity actually reduces the GDP if less is sold, but increases the GDP if it is realised in foreign trade. It would be a long, long post to write it up, but I may do it (specifically about the UK), because it would show the essential economic problems of the UK, the similarities with the main economies of Europe, but also the sharp differences. And just to make it more controversial - the UK (and most of Europe) needs a proper recession to enable firms to write off a lot of assets and lay offs announced during this week won't be sufficient. Of course, it would have a very negative influence on the government party.(the current one or Labour), but it cannot be postponed for very long. Well we have tried letting business go to the wall before and it isn’t necessarily the case that wondrous new industries spring from it. indeed there can be a knock on effect of more business going under. Might get a few McJobs springing up though. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 20, 2023 5:15:44 GMT
befuddledbadger“ By the way, in terms of how to to expedite population decline, hands up all those who would like to consider mass sterilisation programmes and euthanasia. Starting with our own families, maybe. Philanthropic charity beginning at home and all that.” I’m sure there’s a popular game show there somewhere. Maybe a competition that raises money for worthwhile causes in which you vote for someone to euthanise? FM I really dont understand. The Uk population would be falling naturally were it not for massive immigration, encouraged by governments of all stripes for the last 50 years. Its not about the birth rate, in any developed country. And as to Euthenaia, a fair number of those immigrants are employed to help keep the old alive longer. Ending immigration ends the problem for the UK or EU. But if anyone though the conservatives were going to actually end immigration because they said they needed to do brexit to end immigration, that has always been obvious bollocks. They could have ended immigration in 2010! They didn't want to. They dont want to. What they do want is cheap imported labour. |
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Post by Danny on May 20, 2023 5:33:12 GMT
Might there be some way to facilitate a boomer removal virus vector. That targets the old, infirm, ill and disabled. Then encourage it to run amok in the general population ( starting in Hastings of course) ? Sorry I'll collect my tin foil hat and leave. Edit not forgetting the poor obviously. This week I was speaking to yet another person who had a covid like diseases, was hospitalised with it, and was told by doctors it was an unidentifed virus of some sort...in late 2019. In Hastings. There is no reasonable explanation of all the facts about illness locally than that Hastings had covid late 2019. I have never claimed this was the earliest incidence in the UK, its just that it was definitely here that early. The most likely scenario is that China had covid rather earlier than it believed, no one anywhere found cases of an unidentified flu like disease very unusual untill it became widespread enough with enough hospitalised cases to be recorded in significant numbers. Covid does not generally need medical intervention in those below pension age. Its most frequently caught by those most socially active. It seems likely a natural outbreak can come and go, spreading fast through the young working population, without reaching too many of the very old who are the most at risk. people naturally self isolate as they get older, or indeed sicker with other illnesses which might in combination with covid be particularly serious. The actions taken against covid were based on worst credible seriousness. This case is no longer credible, covid was never, ever, anywhere, as serious as was asserted to justify interventions taken. Nor do we really know what would have happened had the world done exactly what was done in hastings in late 2019, which is to say nothing special beyond what people do anyway if they have a bit of flu. But the evidence all suggests the outcome would have been like it was in hastings. Some extra deaths amongst the old, but honestly we didnt even notice. A trillion pounds was thrown away on interventions which did no good. Slowing the disease didnt make it better, but worse. Had there been no world lockdown there would not have been a world recession. Economies would have been doing better, aside from the trillion pounds extra in the bank in the UK. Interest rates would not be soaring. Inflation would not have jumped out of control. The Uk would still have left the EU, and we would have our own personal economic disaster for that reason, but we would have had the trillion pounds to spend on measures to try to fix it. Like building battery factories, or semiconductor plants, or wind farms, or new homes. Although I very very much doubt con would have chosen to do so. I am pretty sick of the political denial going on here. face it, covid was spreading world wide in 2019 and established before anyone noticed, because its not so very different to lots of other diseases. Politicians need to accept they messed up terribly in what they did. Hubris, believing they could change how epidemics have always been managed by this time using technology...which failed. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 20, 2023 5:39:50 GMT
I can only call it as I see it. When I am in the countryside round these parts I have seen rabbits, hares, foxes, deer, pheasants, birds of prey, badgers, etc. In the built up areas very little except domestic cats and pigeons. When canvassing recently I was alarmed at the growing proportion of people who had replaced their lawns with that green plastic stuff. In fact the new build housing estates tend to have the largest possible house crammed onto the smallest possible patch of land, resulting in tiny gardens - for profit maximisation of course. erm...arent rabbits an imported pest species? Arent deer imported too? Pheasants would certainly be extinct without constant reintroductions for the purpose of shooting them, and also dont they come from India or something? Badgers are getting very plentiful and certainly like urban areas where they cause chaos. There was a hole blocking the pavement across from me for years because badgers had moved into a sevices duct and no one was allowed to evict them. Shouldnt we have bears. boar, wolves, that sort of thing...naturally? The noticeable thing about them is they are big enough to be dangerous to people, so we got rid of them? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 20, 2023 5:48:47 GMT
"Britain is almost certain to avoid recession this year as two new surveys show businesses are hiring at their strongest pace in half a year and households are upbeat about their finances. Figures from Lloyds Bank show that almost every sector of the UK economy added to its workforce last month. The lender said the hiring was led by estate agents and software companies." biz.crast.net/the-uk-is-firmly-on-its-way-out-of-recession-with-a-boom-in-recruitment-and-growth/One would hope the naysayers will be forced to eat their words. Th actual article seems to say that Lloyds disagree with figures published by the ONS. It also says "The increase was primarily driven by a five-digit increase in households’ personal finances in the coming year" is that digits in pounds? They reckon every household will see its income rise by £10,000 (minimum) in the next year? I can see this might be possible as the average. But for most households? Really? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 20, 2023 5:52:45 GMT
Sea level will only rise about 200 foot if all the ice melts. I'm very near what is reputed to be the highest point between Wales and the Urals so I'm all right Jack. No need to move to the colonies Wales or Scotland. But most people live on coastal planes and low lying land. Which means that most urban areas, London for example, will be mostly under water and therefore we will have to rebuild everything on high ground. Would that leave Buckingham palace and downing street, the British museum, all under water? If that really happened as a tipping point event in the next 20 years the chaos would be unimaginable. Forget about importing food either. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 20, 2023 5:54:34 GMT
The Tory slur thrown about cheaply. Believe me, being a Tory is a really stigma in these parts, and I'm certainly not one. But for some inexplicable reason you do support Brexit and therefore the conservative government. |
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Post by alec on May 20, 2023 6:10:11 GMT
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