24-April 2023 : LAB 44% / CON 29% / LDEM 11% / GRN 5%

[steve]

New criminal indictment for the sex offender coming as soon as beginning of August.

There are twelve potential charges carrying penalties up to 40 years imprisonment.


youtu.be/LRs9u0nP9UU

[leftieliberal]

May 19, 2023 17:34:21 GMT johntel said:

May 19, 2023 17:07:36 GMT leftieliberal said:

It was my first employer too. I was at Kidsgrove.

@leftie I was at Bracknell working on microcode for the ICL 2903 range, but I only stayed a year because I wanted to do a masters in computer science. Later I worked for Plessey in Poole - ICL and Plessey both had great technology but the management didn't have a clue. Partly because they both had a big home market and they weren't capable of learning how to sell overseas.

System 4 for me. It took me less than a year to realise that I wasn't cut out to be a systems programmer and I got back into applied physics research after taking a PhD.

[johntel]

leftieliberal There's a new Finnish TV drama series just starting on Channel 4 about how Nokia became so successful. It's called Mobile 101 and is one of the Walter Presents series which are usually pretty good.

[joeboy]

May 19, 2023 17:51:22 GMT johntel said:

leftieliberal There's a new Finnish TV drama series just starting on Channel 4 about how Nokia became so successful. It's called Mobile 101 and is one of the Walter Presents series which are usually pretty good.

[alec]

pjw1961 - housing - a Natural England study from a few years ago concluded that well designed housing on much farmland would increase biodiversity. Sad, but true.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 19, 2023 17:37:54 GMT Mr Poppy said:

May 19, 2023 16:45:48 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Questions regarding the housing crisis.

1. If brownfield sites are to be preferred, how much brownfield is there/how many can it house?

2. If farming land affects biodiversity, how much can eventually be done away with using vertical farming etc., or lab meat etc., freeing up land. (for some crops like grains, they need rather more energy so energy prices need to fall. There are other technologies like Agrisolar, combining crops with solar panels, which can improve yields while also providing power, but construction costs need to fall)

3. How dense can we make the housing without adverse social or other effects? Perhaps using more sophisticated designs/layouts etc.

4. Can we do a lot more of the eco home thing where the houses are built more into the ground so you get more insulation while having more wildlife on top?

1. See map link provided earlier (noting it is in 'beta' so see all the caveats mentioned). IMO proper redevelopment of 'brownfield' sites would solve most of the issue in/near towns/cities.

2. Less red meat would be the biggest benefit IMO as some forms of agriculture are not very environmentally friendly in the broadest sense of the term. I note mercian comment that we do need to grow more British food for British consumers and that links to 'less people' (as per colin ). However, 'tech' in the form of vertical farms (green leaf food) or even '3D printing' protein are areas we've covered before - both need cheap lecky but very little land.

3. Good question. There does seem to be some issue in English cities with 'high rise' that you don't see in rWorld (eg N.Amercia or Asian cities) although that might be changing a bit in London then recent 'near London' (Maidenhead) suggests there are still issues on height, possibly related to the Grenfell Tower or 'stigma' from some poorly designed high rise 'estates' in the past?
www.bdonline.co.uk/news/studio-egret-wests-250m-maidenhead-scheme-approved/5096750.article

4. Lots of folks, notably in London, have built down rather than up. Elsewhere then 'extending down' to avoid height limits is an option. Beyond that you'd get into 'Morlocks' issue as most people like to live above ground. However, see #2 and note there is already a large 'vertical farm' under Clapham:
www.cam.ac.uk/stories/growingunderground

Perhaps for the JAMs of tomorrow:
"...
And the public gets what the public wants
But I want nothing this society's got
I'm growing underground (growing underground)
..."


PS and for the benefit of someone still shooting the messenger (ie leftieliberal  and thexterminatingdalek ) then another way to better use space is to build garages and car parks under ground as they do in lots of places in rWorld. Single storey supermarkets with massive car parks is a disgraceful waste of land. Build up for 'living'/retail space + build down for stuff like car parks/vertical farms = #nobrainer

Your link, though useful, doesn’t seem to give the salient info. I was on about, which is how much new housing can brownfield actually support and how that relates to the amount required. Similarly, I’m wondering as to what is the actual potential for vertical farming, lab meat etc. if we improve the costs: how much extra land for how much housing could it free up, or how much farming land could it free up for biodiversity purposes, and how much biodiversity is required?

Regarding the density, I’m wondering to what extent good design can facilitate higher density without negative effects. I think you’re right, we could make more use of building down, and to some extent the eco home idea, buried partially in the ground, is an example of that (though it’s partially also about raising the land, in effect).

Ultimately, the issue of how much we can use brownfield, vertical farming, higher density, building down etc., may not be simply about housing current population, but about the possibility of rather more population in future. I suppose I am wondering how much population we can in principle support while improving biodiversity and without adverse social effects, if we do things right. 

[joeboy]

For anyone who's interested in NI politics, the local election results are coming through. Slugger O'Toole is probably the best place to visit for any sort of understanding of what the results mean. The BBC coverage is very basic as the NUJ are on strike in NI today!

A warning, for those in favour of the Union it's not pleasant viewing.

[befuddledbadger]

In terms of the earth's population, and the consequences for the planet of it endlessly increasing (as it has since the 10th century), I was struck by this recent scientific study looking at future trends. It points to it peaking at 8 billion by 2050 and then quite rapidly declining to 6.5 billion by the end of this century. Sub-replacement fertility, a factor at play already in some parts of the world, is thought to be a key cause. There are others, which the study outlines.


www.livescience.com/worlds-population-could-plummet-to-six-billion-by-the-end-of-the-century-new-study-suggests

One would think, certainly in the long term, that this is good news both for humanity and the planet. The wellbeing of the two, of course, being inextricably linked. Very few of us currently alive today will live long enough to see the benefits of less of us being around, but it appears that nature forever retains a capacity, over time, to heal itself and get back into equilibrium.

By the way, in terms of how to to expedite population decline, hands up all those who would like to consider mass sterilisation programmes and euthanasia. Starting with our own families, maybe. Philanthropic charity beginning at home and all that.

[leftieliberal]

May 19, 2023 17:37:54 GMT Mr Poppy said:

May 19, 2023 16:45:48 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

PS and for the benefit of someone still shooting the messenger (ie leftieliberal  and thexterminatingdalek ) then another way to better use space is to build garages and car parks under ground as they do in lots of places in rWorld. #nobrainer 

I wasn't shooting the messenger Mr Poppy , just pointing out how bad their data is. GIGO. If you knew more about London, you would know that it isn't as simple as building downwards for parking. Shifting large amounts of solid clay is expensive and it has to go somewhere. Also the water table under London is rising and they have to pump continuously to keep the Tube from flooding. The last estimate I saw was if the pumps stopped for just 36 hours, all the deep-level lines would be flooded.

www.geolsoc.org.uk/Geoscientist/Archive/May-2013/Troubled-waters  (this is from 10 years ago)

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 19, 2023 18:06:49 GMT leftieliberal said:

May 19, 2023 17:37:54 GMT Mr Poppy said:

PS and for the benefit of someone still shooting the messenger (ie leftieliberal  and thexterminatingdalek ) then another way to better use space is to build garages and car parks under ground as they do in lots of places in rWorld. #nobrainer 

I wasn't shooting the messenger Mr Poppy , just pointing out how bad their data is. GIGO. If you knew more about London, you would know that it isn't as simple as building downwards for parking. Shifting large amounts of solid clay is expensive and it has to go somewhere. Also the water table under London is rising and they have to pump continuously to keep the Tube from flooding. The last estimate I saw was if the pumps stopped for just 36 hours, all the deep-level lines would be flooded.

www.geolsoc.org.uk/Geoscientist/Archive/May-2013/Troubled-waters  (this is from 10 years ago)

Can you build homes on top out of that sort of clay? Read recently about 3D printing homes out of clay…

[oldnat]

May 19, 2023 18:02:18 GMT joeboy said:

For anyone who's interested in NI politics, the local election results are coming through. Slugger O'Toole is probably the best place to visit for any sort of understanding of what the results mean. The BBC coverage is very basic as the NUJ are on strike in NI today!

A warning, for those in favour of the Union it's not pleasant viewing.

[jimjam]

Joeboy re NI Elections; key measure for me is if the DUP+TUV first preference %age falls.

Whether to UUP or Alliance is of secondary significance in the short term and harder to assess.

Would have to see if Alliance continues to pick up support from moderate Nationalists frustrated at the SDLPs equivocation on social issues.

[thylacine]

May 19, 2023 18:06:28 GMT befuddledbadger said:

In terms of the earth's population, and the consequences for the planet of it endlessly increasing (as it has since the 10th century), I was struck by this recent scientific study looking at future trends. It points to it peaking at 8 billion by 2050 and then quite rapidly declining to 6.5 billion by the end of this century. Sub-replacement fertility, a factor at play already in some parts of the world, is thought to be a key cause. There are others, which the study outlines.


www.livescience.com/worlds-population-could-plummet-to-six-billion-by-the-end-of-the-century-new-study-suggests

One would think, certainly in the long term, that this is good news both for humanity and the planet. The wellbeing of the two, of course, being inextricably linked. Very few of us currently alive today will live long enough to see the benefits of less of us being around, but it appears that nature forever retains a capacity, over time, to heal itself and get back into equilibrium.

By the way, in terms of how to to expedite population decline, hands up all those who would like to consider mass sterilisation programmes and euthanasia. Starting with our own families, maybe. Philanthropic charity beginning at home and all that.

The problem is in the transition period when you have an aging population and 1 working adult possibly supporting 4 grandparents and 2 parents. Ultimately yes the reduction can only be good for the planet.

[Mr Poppy]

May 19, 2023 18:06:49 GMT leftieliberal said:

May 19, 2023 17:37:54 GMT Mr Poppy said:

PS and for the benefit of someone still shooting the messenger (ie leftieliberal  and thexterminatingdalek ) then another way to better use space is to build garages and car parks under ground as they do in lots of places in rWorld. #nobrainer 

I wasn't shooting the messenger Mr Poppy , just pointing out how bad their data is. GIGO. If you knew more about London, you would know that it isn't as simple as building downwards for parking. Shifting large amounts of solid clay is expensive and it has to go somewhere. Also the water table under London is rising and they have to pump continuously to keep the Tube from flooding. The last estimate I saw was if the pumps stopped for just 36 hours, all the deep-level lines would be flooded.

www.geolsoc.org.uk/Geoscientist/Archive/May-2013/Troubled-waters  (this is from 10 years ago)

I appreciate that you and almost 9million other people live in London* and that most of London is at/near Sea Level, etc... I did live there once but anyone can check a topography map and work out where might not be a good place to live with Global warming and rising Sea Levels**

As for the data. FFS. I'm aware it's "bad". I very clearly stated 'don't shoot the messenger' twice (x3 now).

Also for the benefit of c-a-r-f-r-e-w then let's run an example using "illustrative" but realistic numbers.

Single storey supermarket on say 100,000ft2 (almost 1hectare) of land with tarmac car park = approx 2hectares

1/ Could be <=20 dwellings per hectare
2/ Could at least 5x that if 'build up'
3/ Could be a multi-storey supermarket with underground car park using <=1/3rd of the 2hectares space and then 'pro-rata' for #1 or #2

PS Noting further comments then, yes, retro-fitting is expensive (eg excavating clay, 'tanking' below water level, etc). So first up would be 'criteria' for new/repurposed building. However, Boston's "Big Dig" project shows you can 'retro-fit' (and yes, before you mention it, I am fully aware the 'Big Dig' was not 'perfect' and very expensive - just saying retro-fitting a city to make use of 'underground' can be done). 

* As mentioned ad nauseam then 'right place' is important. FKWH to 'level up' but we need to end the 'London Centric' part of neoliberalism. We don't need to 'encourage' people to live/commute to London (eg the money pit of HS2). Instead we need to create good jobs in 'left behind' areas where housing is cheaper and areas that won't be flooded in the foreseeable future. 
 
** Took me a while to convince the wife that most of N.Norfolk will probably be gone before we're dead. Cotswolds fairly high though and if not for the Welsh or Scottish then I'd consider Wales or Scotland as well (but only 'over my (wife's) dead body')

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 19, 2023 18:36:58 GMT Mr Poppy said:

May 19, 2023 18:06:49 GMT leftieliberal said:

I wasn't shooting the messenger Mr Poppy , just pointing out how bad their data is. GIGO. If you knew more about London, you would know that it isn't as simple as building downwards for parking. Shifting large amounts of solid clay is expensive and it has to go somewhere. Also the water table under London is rising and they have to pump continuously to keep the Tube from flooding. The last estimate I saw was if the pumps stopped for just 36 hours, all the deep-level lines would be flooded.

www.geolsoc.org.uk/Geoscientist/Archive/May-2013/Troubled-waters  (this is from 10 years ago)

Also for the benefit of c-a-r-f-r-e-w then let's run an example using "illustrative" but realistic numbers.

Single storey supermarket on say 100,000ft2 (almost 1hectare) of land with tarmac car park = approx 2hectares

1/ Could be <=20 dwellings per hectare
2/ Could at least 5x that if 'build up'
3/ Could be a multi-storey supermarket with underground car park using <=1/3rd of the 2hectares space and then 'pro-rata' for #1 or #2

Yes, as ought to be apparent, I am aware of the idea that building up or down can increase the density of housing and other things including farming. That’s why I mentioned it myself. The concern is how much of that can we do without ill effects and can it affordably meet possible future population needs. 

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 19, 2023 18:36:58 GMT Mr Poppy said:

May 19, 2023 18:06:49 GMT leftieliberal said:

I wasn't shooting the messenger Mr Poppy , just pointing out how bad their data is. GIGO. If you knew more about London, you would know that it isn't as simple as building downwards for parking. Shifting large amounts of solid clay is expensive and it has to go somewhere. Also the water table under London is rising and they have to pump continuously to keep the Tube from flooding. The last estimate I saw was if the pumps stopped for just 36 hours, all the deep-level lines would be flooded.

www.geolsoc.org.uk/Geoscientist/Archive/May-2013/Troubled-waters  (this is from 10 years ago)

** Took me a while to convince the wife that most of N.Norfolk will probably be gone before we're dead. Cotswolds fairly high though and if not for the Welsh or Scottish then I'd consider Wales or Scotland as well (but only 'over my (wife's) dead body')

Well there’s a thing. We might let land succumb to the sea, or we might instead reclaim more land from the sea as some do. Though am unsure of the extent of the environmental effects. 

[somerjohn]

I like the latest three-word slogan coined by Farage:

BREXIT HAS FAILED

I wonder if it will catch on amongst our dwindling band of BREXIT apologists?

[Deleted]

befuddledbadger

“ By the way, in terms of how to to expedite population decline, hands up all those who would like to consider mass sterilisation programmes and euthanasia. Starting with our own families, maybe. Philanthropic charity beginning at home and all that.”

I’m sure there’s a popular game show there somewhere. Maybe a competition that raises money for worthwhile causes in which you vote for someone to euthanise?

FM

[Mr Poppy]

May 19, 2023 18:26:18 GMT jimjam said:

Joeboy re NI Elections; key measure for me is if the DUP+TUV first preference %age falls.

Whether to UUP or Alliance is of secondary significance in the short term and harder to assess.

Would have to see if Alliance continues to pick up support from moderate Nationalists frustrated at the SDLPs equivocation on social issues.

Still early in terms of results but SF on the +, SDLP and UUP on the - 

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-65637272

Not my polity of course but as discussed before then DUP+TUV is worth watching but once NI LEs are done then TBC if DUP 'decide' that the WF is OK and they come off strike. 

Setting aside the obvious partisan bias then SF keen to show they want to get NI Assembly running again and using some early good results as 'evidence' that 'people across the North (of Ireland)' agree:

[Mr Poppy]

May 19, 2023 18:48:51 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

May 19, 2023 18:36:58 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Also for the benefit of c-a-r-f-r-e-w then let's run an example using "illustrative" but realistic numbers.

Single storey supermarket on say 100,000ft2 (almost 1hectare) of land with tarmac car park = approx 2hectares

1/ Could be <=20 dwellings per hectare
2/ Could at least 5x that if 'build up'
3/ Could be a multi-storey supermarket with underground car park using <=1/3rd of the 2hectares space and then 'pro-rata' for #1 or #2

Yes, as ought to be apparent, I am aware of the idea that building up or down can increase the density of housing and other things. That’s why I mentioned it myself. The concern is how much of that can we do without ill effects and can it affordably meet population needs. 

'Ill effects' doesn't seem to a problem in all the new high rise builds in cities across N.Amercia or Asia (maybe rEurope as well but beyond ski or golf trips then I don't know much about rEurope)

WRT to your other reply about sea levels then with almost 9million people, the 'City', etc then I expect UK HMG's will throw a lot of money at 'saving' London from rising sea levels but the WTF about still focussing so much ££ on London?!? With very little population, FA of economic value, huge coastline then N.Norfolk is likely to be one less constituency by GE'49 (within my expected life)??

[jib]

May 19, 2023 18:51:16 GMT somerjohn said:

I like the latest three-word slogan coined by Farage:

BREXIT HAS FAILED

I wonder if it will catch on amongst our dwindling band of BREXIT apologists?

So Singapore upon Thames didn't happen. The dream died in a ball of flames as Kamikaze Kwarteng executed Truss' command.

Other than that, very pleased with progress as economic gravity directs the UK to a destination I have always favoured.

[thylacine]

May 19, 2023 18:51:22 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

befuddledbadger

“ By the way, in terms of how to to expedite population decline, hands up all those who would like to consider mass sterilisation programmes and euthanasia. Starting with our own families, maybe. Philanthropic charity beginning at home and all that.”

I’m sure there’s a popular game show there somewhere. Maybe a competition that raises money for worthwhile causes in which you vote for someone to euthanise?

FM

Might there be some way to facilitate a boomer removal virus vector. That targets the old, infirm, ill and disabled. Then encourage it to run amok in the general population ( starting in Hastings of course) ?
Sorry I'll collect my tin foil hat and leave.

Edit not forgetting the poor obviously.

[joeboy]

May 19, 2023 18:26:18 GMT jimjam said:

Joeboy re NI Elections; key measure for me is if the DUP+TUV first preference %age falls.

Whether to UUP or Alliance is of secondary significance in the short term and harder to assess.

Would have to see if Alliance continues to pick up support from moderate Nationalists frustrated at the SDLPs equivocation on social issues.

I think the swing across the divide is about 4% at the moment. In addition Alliance have picked up around 1.5% so not quite the advance in 1st pref votes they were hoping to achieve. The Alliance still may do well on transfers and pick up a few DUP/UUP and SDLP seats. The pattern of the SDLP and UUP losing ground continues, At 1st glance it looks like SF are gaining most of their votes from the SDLP but there could be other, not so obvious. shifts going on. Still it's early days yet and by tomorrow we may be back where we started! 

[domjg]

May 19, 2023 19:05:35 GMT jib said:

May 19, 2023 18:51:16 GMT somerjohn said:

I like the latest three-word slogan coined by Farage:

BREXIT HAS FAILED

I wonder if it will catch on amongst our dwindling band of BREXIT apologists?

So Singapore upon Thames didn't happen. The dream died in a ball of flames as Kamikaze Kwarteng executed Truss' command.

Other than that, very pleased with progress as economic gravity directs the UK to a destination I have always favoured.

Economic gravity, if not actively resisted, will always pull us back to Europe not to the rubbish dump as you seem to imply.

[pjw1961]

May 19, 2023 17:56:54 GMT alec said:

pjw1961 - housing - a Natural England study from a few years ago concluded that well designed housing on much farmland would increase biodiversity. Sad, but true.

I can only call it as I see it. When I am in the countryside round these parts I have seen rabbits, hares, foxes, deer, pheasants, birds of prey, badgers, etc. In the built up areas very little except domestic cats and pigeons. When canvassing recently I was alarmed at the growing proportion of people who had replaced their lawns with that green plastic stuff. In fact the new build housing estates tend to have the largest possible house crammed onto the smallest possible patch of land, resulting in tiny gardens - for profit maximisation of course.  

[domjg]

May 19, 2023 18:51:16 GMT somerjohn said:

I like the latest three-word slogan coined by Farage:

BREXIT HAS FAILED

I wonder if it will catch on amongst our dwindling band of BREXIT apologists?

Unfortunately as Jonathan Freedland says, this could be a dangerous time as they want someone to blame that failure on and it won’t of course be them. www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/19/brexit-failed-blame-remoaner-elite-refugees#comment-162731126

[pjw1961]

May 19, 2023 18:51:16 GMT somerjohn said:

I like the latest three-word slogan coined by Farage:

BREXIT HAS FAILED

I wonder if it will catch on amongst our dwindling band of BREXIT apologists?

But that will be due to "the great betrayal" rather than because it was a crap idea from day 1. It is just a question of establishing who did the betraying. Jonathan Freedland has suggested that candidates for the right currently include: Rishi Sunak, "the Blob", the “remoaner elite”, the civil service, the BBC, universities, trade unions and desperate refugees in small boats. 

Edit: domjg beat me to it. 

[pjw1961]

May 19, 2023 19:05:35 GMT jib said:

May 19, 2023 18:51:16 GMT somerjohn said:

I like the latest three-word slogan coined by Farage:

BREXIT HAS FAILED

I wonder if it will catch on amongst our dwindling band of BREXIT apologists?

So Singapore upon Thames didn't happen. The dream died in a ball of flames as Kamikaze Kwarteng executed Truss' command.

Other than that, very pleased with progress as economic gravity directs the UK to a destination I have always favoured.

What, bottom of the G20 for growth, below sanctioned Russia? Curious ambition. 

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65240749

[JohnC]

May 19, 2023 17:31:19 GMT leftieliberal said:

May 19, 2023 17:13:59 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Good to know that some of the brownfield sites near you have already been redeveloped. I did say:

Not some of them, most of them and some of those that haven't been re-developed I would be surprised if they were. For example, around 30 years ago the old Wealdstone Football Ground was redeveloped and became a Tesco supermarket. That's shown as a brownfield site on the map, even though it is the biggest supermarket in the Borough and the main one serving central Harrow. I cannot see Tesco saying that they would sell it for housing; there just isn't anywhere else they could build a similar-sized supermarket near the centre of the Borough.

A Tesco supermarket not far from where I live is due to be demolished and replaced by flats. However, the ground floor of the new building will house a new Tesco store.

[jib]

May 19, 2023 19:48:37 GMT pjw1961 said:

May 19, 2023 19:05:35 GMT jib said:

So Singapore upon Thames didn't happen. The dream died in a ball of flames as Kamikaze Kwarteng executed Truss' command.

Other than that, very pleased with progress as economic gravity directs the UK to a destination I have always favoured.

What, bottom of the G20 for growth, below sanctioned Russia? Curious ambition. 

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65240749

That's a prediction. I'll wait and see if it comes true.

"Britain is almost certain to avoid recession this year as two new surveys show businesses are hiring at their strongest pace in half a year and households are upbeat about their finances.



Figures from Lloyds Bank show that almost every sector of the UK economy added to its workforce last month.



The lender said the hiring was led by estate agents and software companies."

biz.crast.net/the-uk-is-firmly-on-its-way-out-of-recession-with-a-boom-in-recruitment-and-growth/

One would hope the naysayers will be forced to eat their words.