Predictions Game - 2023

[eor]

Predict what you think on each of the following and let's see who the sages are at the end of the year. Post your predictions on here by the end of Mon Jan 16th to take part, and if something relevant changes between your post and the deadline feel free to edit your post accordingly. 

A point for each, with +/- 5% on the numerical questions for the full point, +/- 10% for half a point. 

So, on 31st December 2023;

1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK?
2. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster?
3. Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister of Scotland?
4. Who (if anyone!) will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland?
5. Will Mark Drakeford be First Minister of Wales?

6. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel?
7. Will Olaf Scholz be Chancellor of Germany?
8. Will Xi Jinping be the President of China?
9. Will Vladimir Putin be the President of Russia?
10. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party?

11. How many US dollars will £1 buy you?
12. And how many euros?
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 2023)
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2023)
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2023)

16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence?
17. Will Joe Biden and/or Donald Trump be formally declared candidates** for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (1/2 point for each)
18. Which party will be leading in GB opinion polls, and by what margin from the second-placed party? (average of YouGov polls with fieldwork wholly or partially in December 2023 and published by 31st December) 
19. The Conservatives currently have majority control of 86*** of the 230 English councils that will be having scheduled elections on 4th May (either whole council or by thirds). How many of these 230 will they hold majority control in immediately after the elections?  
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2023; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election).


** a candidate who has formally declared but whose campaign is officially Suspended as at 31st December does not count as a formal candidate for this question 
*** using en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections - I appreciate that between now and the elections taking place then defections, vacancies, by-elections etc could change the starting number from 86 councils, hence asking how many of these 230 they will hold after the elections, rather than how many will be lost/gained on the night

[Deleted]

Alright then. Random guesses...

1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Rishi Sunak

2. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Yvette Cooper
3. Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister of Scotland? Yes
4. Who (if anyone!) will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? Nobody
5. Will Mark Drakeford be First Minister of Wales? Yes

6. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? Benjamin Netanyahu
7. Will Olaf Scholz be Chancellor of Germany? Yes
8. Will Xi Jinping be the President of China? Yes
9. Will Vladimir Putin be the President of Russia? Yes
10. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? No

11. How many US dollars will £1 buy you? 1.25
12. And how many euros? 1.14
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) 3.0%
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) 3.9%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2023) 4.5%

16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? No
17. Will Joe Biden and/or Donald Trump be formally declared candidates** for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (1/2 point for each) Just Joe
18. Which party will be leading in GB opinion polls, and by what margin from the second-placed party? (average of YouGov polls with fieldwork wholly or partially in December 2023 and published by 31st December) Labour by 20% over the Tories
19. The Conservatives currently have majority control of 86*** of the 230 English councils that will be having scheduled elections on 4th May (either whole council or by thirds). How many of these 230 will they hold majority control in immediately after the elections?  50
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2023; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election). 2

[mercian]

Jan 9, 2023 23:58:12 GMT eor said:

Predict what you think on each of the following and let's see who the sages are at the end of the year. Post your predictions on here by the end of Mon Jan 16th to take part, and if something relevant changes between your post and the deadline feel free to edit your post accordingly. 

A point for each, with +/- 5% on the numerical questions for the full point, +/- 10% for half a point. 

So, on 31st December 2023;

1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Sunak
2. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Starmer
3. Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister of Scotland? Yes
4. Who (if anyone!) will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? No-one
5. Will Mark Drakeford be First Minister of Wales? Yes

6. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? Netanyahu
7. Will Olaf Scholz be Chancellor of Germany? No
8. Will Xi Jinping be the President of China? Yes
9. Will Vladimir Putin be the President of Russia? No
10. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? Yes

11. How many US dollars will £1 buy you? $1.25
12. And how many euros? $1.15
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) 6.8%
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) 3.2%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2023) 3.1%

16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? No
17. Will Joe Biden and/or Donald Trump be formally declared candidates** for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (1/2 point for each) Just Trump
18. Which party will be leading in GB opinion polls, and by what margin from the second-placed party? (average of YouGov polls with fieldwork wholly or partially in December 2023 and published by 31st December) Labour, 10.1%
19. The Conservatives currently have majority control of 86*** of the 230 English councils that will be having scheduled elections on 4th May (either whole council or by thirds). How many of these 230 will they hold majority control in immediately after the elections?  72 
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2023; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election). 7


** a candidate who has formally declared but whose campaign is officially Suspended as at 31st December does not count as a formal candidate for this question 
*** using en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections - I appreciate that between now and the elections taking place then defections, vacancies, by-elections etc could change the starting number from 86 councils, hence asking how many of these 230 they will hold after the elections, rather than how many will be lost/gained on the night

[Mr Poppy]

I'm going for a boring year, with some slightly more +ve views on the economic guesses versus 'consensus' (or implied by futures markets where applicable). Boldest call is on BoE where futures market currently expects rates to peak 4.25% or 4.5% and end the year at 4.25%.

1. Rishi
2. Sir Keir
3. Yes
4. Michelle O'Neill
5. Yes
6. Netanyahu
7. Yes
8. Yes
9. Yes
10. No
11. 1.28
12. 1.16
13. 3.4% (Nov'23 published mid Dec'23)
14. 3.6% (Aug-Oct'23 published mid Dec'23)
15. 3.5% (bonus point for predicting peak of 3.75% on 2Feb and a 25bpts cut on 2Nov)
16. No
17. Neither
18. LAB, 15%
19. 68
20. 3 (all CON loses)

PS I have put my money where my mouth is on #11 and #15 (but would take profit on #15 before it gets to my 'prediction')

[neilj]

1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Sunak
2. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Starmer
3. Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister of Scotland? Yes
4. Who (if anyone!) will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? Michelle O'Neill
5. Will Mark Drakeford be First Minister of Wales? Yes

6. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? Netanyahu
7. Will Olaf Scholz be Chancellor of Germany? No
8. Will Xi Jinping be the President of China? Yes
9. Will Vladimir Putin be the President of Russia? Yes
10. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? No

11. How many US dollars will £1 buy you? $1.20
12. And how many euros? $1.12
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) 4%
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) 3.9%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2023) 3.5%

16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? No
17. Will Joe Biden and/or Donald Trump be formally declared candidates** for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (1/2 point for each) neither
18. Which party will be leading in GB opinion polls, and by what margin from the second-placed party? (average of YouGov polls with fieldwork wholly or partially in December 2023 and published by 31st December) Labour, 17%
19. The Conservatives currently have majority control of 86*** of the 230 English councils that will be having scheduled elections on 4th May (either whole council or by thirds). How many of these 230 will they hold majority control in immediately after the elections? 52
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2023; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election). 4

[pjw1961]

Jan 9, 2023 23:58:12 GMT eor said:

Predict what you think on each of the following and let's see who the sages are at the end of the year. Post your predictions on here by the end of Mon Jan 16th to take part, and if something relevant changes between your post and the deadline feel free to edit your post accordingly. 

A point for each, with +/- 5% on the numerical questions for the full point, +/- 10% for half a point. 

So, on 31st December 2023;

1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? - Rishi Sunak
2. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? - Keir Starmer
3. Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister of Scotland? - Yes
4. Who (if anyone!) will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? - No one
5. Will Mark Drakeford be First Minister of Wales? - Yes

6. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? - Benjamin Netanyahu
7. Will Olaf Scholz be Chancellor of Germany? - Yes
8. Will Xi Jinping be the President of China? - Yes
9. Will Vladimir Putin be the President of Russia? - Yes
10. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? - No

11. How many US dollars will £1 buy you? - 1.20
12. And how many euros? - 1.10
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) - 5.2%
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) - 4.1%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2023) - 4.8%

16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? - No
17. Will Joe Biden and/or Donald Trump be formally declared candidates** for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (1/2 point for each) - Yes to both
18. Which party will be leading in GB opinion polls, and by what margin from the second-placed party? (average of YouGov polls with fieldwork wholly or partially in December 2023 and published by 31st December) - Labour, lead 14% over the Conservatives
19. The Conservatives currently have majority control of 86*** of the 230 English councils that will be having scheduled elections on 4th May (either whole council or by thirds). How many of these 230 will they hold majority control in immediately after the elections?  - 62
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2023; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election). - One


** a candidate who has formally declared but whose campaign is officially Suspended as at 31st December does not count as a formal candidate for this question 
*** using en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections - I appreciate that between now and the elections taking place then defections, vacancies, by-elections etc could change the starting number from 86 councils, hence asking how many of these 230 they will hold after the elections, rather than how many will be lost/gained on the night

[John Chanin]

Predict what you think on each of the following and let's see who the sages are at the end of the year. Post your predictions on here by the end of Mon Jan 16th to take part, and if something relevant changes between your post and the deadline feel free to edit your post accordingly. 

A point for each, with +/- 5% on the numerical questions for the full point, +/- 10% for half a point. 

So, on 31st December 2023;

1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK?  Sunak
2. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster?  Starmer
3. Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister of Scotland?  Yes
4. Who (if anyone!) will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland?  There will still be no functioning Assembly
5. Will Mark Drakeford be First Minister of Wales?  No

6. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel?  Netanyahu
7. Will Olaf Scholz be Chancellor of Germany?  Yes
8. Will Xi Jinping be the President of China?  Yes
9. Will Vladimir Putin be the President of Russia?  Yes
10. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party?  No, I think it's still a bit early

11. How many US dollars will £1 buy you?  1.16
12. And how many euros?  1.12
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 2023)  4.8%
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2023)  4.2%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2023) 4.5%

16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence?  No
17. Will Joe Biden and/or Donald Trump be formally declared candidates** for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (1/2 point for each) Yes for both - it's too early for either to pull out prior to any primaries
18. Which party will be leading in GB opinion polls, and by what margin from the second-placed party? (average of YouGov polls with fieldwork wholly or partially in December 2023 and published by 31st December) Labour over Conservative by 13%
19. The Conservatives currently have majority control of 86*** of the 230 English councils that will be having scheduled elections on 4th May (either whole council or by thirds). How many of these 230 will they hold majority control in immediately after the elections?  Ooh tricky. I reckon 56. Lots of them elect by thirds so can't lose. 
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2023; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election).  2


** a candidate who has formally declared but whose campaign is officially Suspended as at 31st December does not count as a formal candidate for this question 
*** using en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections - I appreciate that between now and the elections taking place then defections, vacancies, by-elections etc could change the starting number from 86 councils, hence asking how many of these 230 they will hold after the elections, rather than how many will be lost/gained on the night

[EmCat]

Jan 9, 2023 23:58:12 GMT eor said:

My almost random guesses, with some mostly safe choices plus a few wild card, just to spice things up

So, on 31st December 2023;

1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Kier Starmer
2. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Jeremy Hunt
3. Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister of Scotland? Yes
4. Who (if anyone!) will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? Michelle O'Neill
5. Will Mark Drakeford be First Minister of Wales? Yes

6. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? Naftali Bennett
7. Will Olaf Scholz be Chancellor of Germany?Yes
8. Will Xi Jinping be the President of China? Yes
9. Will Vladimir Putin be the President of Russia? Yes
10. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? No

11. How many US dollars will £1 buy you? $1.04
12. And how many euros? €1.12
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) 5.6%
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) 4%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2023) 5.5%

16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? No
17. Will Joe Biden and/or Donald Trump be formally declared candidates** for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (1/2 point for each) Yes for both
18. Which party will be leading in GB opinion polls, and by what margin from the second-placed party? (average of YouGov polls with fieldwork wholly or partially in December 2023 and published by 31st December) Labour 18%
19. The Conservatives currently have majority control of 86*** of the 230 English councils that will be having scheduled elections on 4th May (either whole council or by thirds). How many of these 230 will they hold majority control in immediately after the elections?  45
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2023; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election). 3


** a candidate who has formally declared but whose campaign is officially Suspended as at 31st December does not count as a formal candidate for this question 
*** using en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections - I appreciate that between now and the elections taking place then defections, vacancies, by-elections etc could change the starting number from 86 councils, hence asking how many of these 230 they will hold after the elections, rather than how many will be lost/gained on the night

[expatr]

1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? SUNAK
2. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? STARMER
3. Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister of Scotland? YES
4. Who (if anyone!) will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? O'NEILL
5. Will Mark Drakeford be First Minister of Wales? YES

6. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? NETENYAHU
7. Will Olaf Scholz be Chancellor of Germany? YES
8. Will Xi Jinping be the President of China? YES
9. Will Vladimir Putin be the President of Russia? YES
10. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? NO

11. How many US dollars will £1 buy you? 1.14
12. And how many euros? 1.14
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) 5.7%
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) 4.3%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2023) 5.25

16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? NO
17. Will Joe Biden and/or Donald Trump be formally declared candidates** for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (1/2 point for each) YES
18. Which party will be leading in GB opinion polls, and by what margin from the second-placed party? (average of YouGov polls with fieldwork wholly or partially in December 2023 and published by 31st December) LABOUR 16%
19. The Conservatives currently have majority control of 86*** of the 230 English councils that will be having scheduled elections on 4th May (either whole council or by thirds). How many of these 230 will they hold majority control in immediately after the elections?  27
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2023; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election). 4

[eor]

Well at least I'm looking good to finish in the top ten this year, however badly this lot age!   

1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Rishi Sunak
2. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Keir Starmer
3. Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister of Scotland? Yes
4. Who (if anyone!) will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? Paul Givan
5. Will Mark Drakeford be First Minister of Wales? No

6. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? Yair Lapid
7. Will Olaf Scholz be Chancellor of Germany? Yes
8. Will Xi Jinping be the President of China? Yes
9. Will Vladimir Putin be the President of Russia? No
10. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? Yes

11. How many US dollars will £1 buy you? 1.34
12. And how many euros? 1.16
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) 5.4%
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) 4.1%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2023) 3%

16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? No
17. Will Joe Biden and/or Donald Trump be formally declared candidates** for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (1/2 point for each) No and no
18. Which party will be leading in GB opinion polls, and by what margin from the second-placed party? (average of YouGov polls with fieldwork wholly or partially in December 2023 and published by 31st December) Labour by 9
19. The Conservatives currently have majority control of 86*** of the 230 English councils that will be having scheduled elections on 4th May (either whole council or by thirds). How many of these 230 will they hold majority control in immediately after the elections? 62 
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2023; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election). 3

[lululemonmustdobetter]

In a desperate attempt not to get the wooden spoon again:

1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Rishi Sunak
2. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Keir Starmer
3. Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister of Scotland? yes
4. Who (if anyone!) will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? Michelle O'Neill
5. Will Mark Drakeford be First Minister of Wales? Yes

6. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? Benjamin Netanyahu
7. Will Olaf Scholz be Chancellor of Germany? yes
8. Will Xi Jinping be the President of China? yes
9. Will Vladimir Putin be the President of Russia? yes
10. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? No

11. How many US dollars will £1 buy you? 1.19
12. And how many euros? 1.12
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) 5.8%
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) 4.5%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2023) 3%

16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? No
17. Will Joe Biden and/or Donald Trump be formally declared candidates** for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (1/2 point for each) yes and yes
18. Which party will be leading in GB opinion polls, and by what margin from the second-placed party? (average of YouGov polls with fieldwork wholly or partially in December 2023 and published by 31st December) Labour lead by 12%
19. The Conservatives currently have majority control of 86*** of the 230 English councils that will be having scheduled elections on 4th May (either whole council or by thirds). How many of these 230 will they hold majority control in immediately after the elections? 42
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2023; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election).5


** a candidate who has formally declared but whose campaign is officially Suspended as at 31st December does not count as a formal candidate for this question
*** using en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections - I appreciate that between now and the

[eor]

2023 Answers

1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? Rishi Sunak
2. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? Keir Starmer
3. Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister of Scotland? No
4. Who (if anyone!) will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? No-one
5. Will Mark Drakeford be First Minister of Wales? Yes

6. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? Benjamin Netanyahu
7. Will Olaf Scholz be Chancellor of Germany? Yes
8. Will Xi Jinping be the President of China? Yes
9. Will Vladimir Putin be the President of Russia? Yes
10. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? No

11. How many US dollars will £1 buy you? 1.27
12. And how many euros? 1.15
13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) 3.9%
14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) 4.2%
15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2023) 5.25%

16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? No
17. Will Joe Biden and/or Donald Trump be formally declared candidates** for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (1/2 point for each) Yes/Yes
18. Which party will be leading in GB opinion polls, and by what margin from the second-placed party? (average of YouGov polls with fieldwork wholly or partially in December 2023 and published by 31st December) Labour by 22.5%
19. The Conservatives currently have majority control of 86*** of the 230 English councils that will be having scheduled elections on 4th May (either whole council or by thirds). How many of these 230 will they hold majority control in immediately after the elections? 33
20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2023; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election). 5

[eor]

Sparing my blushes in bringing up the rear was… no-one at all. Solid last for me with 7.5 points. Gambler's choices mixed with general ineptitude, what can I say!

Most people 9.5-12.5 points

lululemonmustdobetter did indeed do a lot better than last year with 13 points, third only behind;

pjw1961 and expatr with 14 points each.

Nice work both!

14 points was incidentally also what our Hive Mind score would have been (taking the most frequent or average answer on each question)

Out of 20 questions there were only four where we all agreed;
- that Nicola Sturgeon would remain First Minister of Scotland (incorrectly)
- that Xi Jinping would remain President of China (correctly)
- that there would not be a date set for a Scottish Independence Referendum (correctly)
- and most impressively, everyone predicted that the Pound would be between 1.10-1.16 to the Euro (correctly)

Everyone picked a strong Labour VI lead but everyone underestimated it against the YouGov average asked for. Almost everyone substantially overestimated how many councils the Tories would hold in the English locals, and people mostly underestimated interest rates whilst overestimating inflation, which is an interesting combination given the political relationship between them.