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Post by somerjohn on Nov 28, 2022 11:32:49 GMT
Lexiteer: Ahead of today's R&W then a quick look at last weeks x-breaks for GE'19 vote (and note demographics will help LAB into GE'24 as well)
CON'19:
CON: 53%
DK: 19%
LAB: 19% - which should be x1.36 when comparing to flows the other way given CON got more votes in GE'19
RUK: 6%
WNV: 4%
No doubt it's an innocent mistake and not the data variant of manipulating quotes. But...
The actual R&W figure for Lab was 14%, not 19%.
The 19% appears to have been arrived at by adding LD (3%), Green (1%) and Others (1%) to the Lab tally.
Hard, actually, to see how inflating a party figure in such a way could be accidental, but there you go.
Moral: if you're going to manipulate the data, explain what you've done and why.
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Post by crossbat11 on Nov 28, 2022 11:33:16 GMT
Crikey, this Serbia v Cameroon game is a cracker. 3-3. It's keeping me indoors for now.
And keeping me messing around annoying people on this forum too.
It's what I do.
đ¤Łđ
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Post by wb61 on Nov 28, 2022 11:41:28 GMT
Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.  âAve! Duci novo, similis duci seneciâ,â murmured Mr Slant, drily as only a zombie can manage. âOr, as we used to say at school, âAve! Bossa nova, similis bossa seneca!ââ Here comes the new boss, same as the old boss,â muttered Dr Follett.â â Terry Pratchett, Night Watch Fellow fans notice these things |
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Post by johntel on Nov 28, 2022 11:41:52 GMT
@lexiteer "Why would Sir Keir want any 'agreement' (any form of alliance) with LDEM? LAB are likely to win a very comfortable majority in GE'24 under FPTP, probably go on to Blair style 3 terms." Crikey I think you need a new crystal ball, this one seems to change it's mind every 5 minutes  . I was talking about the (desirable and still possible) scenario where Labour doesn't have an overall majority. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Nov 28, 2022 11:45:12 GMT
steve
Shh. You'll offend domjg by "undermining Labour at every opportunity." Supporters of other parties aren't supposed to do that (in his world). Realpolitiks in the UK is a fact of life if you are to win elections, (especially given we are still possibly two years out from one). steve thinks the Labour Party should already be campaigning on returning to closer links with the EU again. From what I've seen in membership meetings though people don't really want to talk about our relationship with the EU; the cost of living crisis, NHS, housing, energy is front and centre of the agenda. I'm sure the SNP will continue to make hay with this UK tension to achieve their own objectives. You don't always have to follow the script though oldnat , you could change the record sometimes? After all many of us want the same ultimate outcomes, it's just that the paths ahead are easier for some. |
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Post by johntel on Nov 28, 2022 11:46:31 GMT
Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss. âAve! Duci novo, similis duci seneciâ,â murmured Mr Slant, drily as only a zombie can manage. âOr, as we used to say at school, âAve! Bossa nova, similis bossa seneca!ââ Here comes the new boss, same as the old boss,â muttered Dr Follett.â â Terry Pratchett, Night Watch Fellow fans notice these things Terry Who? |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Nov 28, 2022 11:50:35 GMT
Look oldnat what Starmer has to deal with, many of them within his own party. I suppose your SNP membership are more like the kids in The Midwich Cuckoos in comparison. |
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Post by James E on Nov 28, 2022 11:57:45 GMT
Accruing the current poll lead to Starmer who was nowhere till the Tories massively self-immolated is quite the stretch. Itâs like accruing the victory to Blair in â97 when Tory polling had already collapsed following Black Weds. There is a neat symmetry to the polls now compared to those when Starmer became Labour leader: Labour are now on average 22 points ahead of the Tories, whereas in April 2020 they were 22 points behind. The other polling fact in his favour is the lead Starmer has had over Johnson, Truss and Sunak in 'Best PM' polls. Neither Milliband nor Corbyn ever achieved this in a single poll in their (combined) 9 years as Labour leader. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 28, 2022 11:58:49 GMT
@lexiteer "Why would Sir Keir want any 'agreement' (any form of alliance) with LDEM? LAB are likely to win a very comfortable majority in GE'24 under FPTP, probably go on to Blair style 3 terms." 1. Crikey I think you need a new crystal ball, this one seems to change it's mind every 5 minutes . 2. I was talking about the (desirable and still possible) scenario where Labour doesn't have an overall majority. 1. ?!?! I said 'probably' but yes I shouldn't have gone out as far as '3 terms' perhaps. As well as how well LAB do in power then TBC if CON can make themselves electable again. Not sure what odds I'd get a 3 term accumulator - but I'd place a few quid on that! 2. Already covered in the rest of the reply. If/when LAB don't have a majority after a GE then they still won't "need" LDEM (or SNP for that matter). Canada is a good example of where minority governments exist without any formal agreement or alliance - 'informal' perhaps and the smaller parties might like to think they have some influence but the govt of the day can rely on votes from different parties at different times to pass legislation. That has been easier for Trudeau (Centre-Left in theory) than it was for Harper (CON). Purely for illustration then let's say LDEM win 30 seats in GE'24 ('29 or '34). They'll be pretty happy about that. Would they want to vote with CON to kick a 'Centre-Left' party out of power if/when they had the numbers to vote with CON to do so? Would voters thank them and rally to LDEM in the GE that followed? Maybe, we'll find out and note I did also cover that if LDEM want to be 'patsy' then Sir Keir can do unto them as Cameron did unto Clegg. LDEM should be grateful to have close to 30 seats - best they are likely to ever get post the coalition unless LAB are daft enough to move to a 'PR' style system for GEs. |
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Post by johntel on Nov 28, 2022 11:59:55 GMT
Look oldnat what Starmer has to deal with, many of them within his own party. I suppose your SNP membership are more like the kids in The Midwich Cuckoos in comparison. I'm not convinced that works. The first part is talking about a small amount and second part about a lot, so they can't match. I don't think you can talk about a big lack of knowledge really. Too much ambiguity all round. And what's the comma all about? It's not like you to use language so casually. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Nov 28, 2022 12:03:15 GMT
I can empathasise with much of that and have expressed my own concerns over the last 18 months or so. To be frank, Brexit has never held much salience for me- and I always held a middle of the road position on the issue whilst having little time for the ardent campaigners on both sides. I did in fact vote Leave - because I came to the view that denying Cameron a political victory was paramount in the context of the style of politics being foisted on the country by him. He had secured re-election in 2015 by scaremongering - and he tried the same trick at the London Mayoral election a year later -though he ended up with a bloody nose in May 2016. In the Brexit campaign he and Osborne were blatantly exaggerating the likely immediate consequences of a Leave vote - eg 'a severe recession within six months of such a vote' - and that persuaded me as someone with 50/50 views on the issue anyway to give priority to denying him a victory- much as I loathed the messages of Johnson, Farage et al.I never saw a Leave vote in principle as a green light to accept any Leave deal subsequently negotiated , and believe that- from the outset - there should have been a commitment to a further Confirmatory Referendum once the terms were known. Presented with a choice between Remain and Johnson's Deal I would have voted Remain - and believe the electorate would have taken the same view. However, that is now 'water under the bridge' and I do strongly suspect that Brexit has long lost its electoral salience - beyond the commentariat and political anoraks who comment here. Perhaps Starmer has now reached a similar view. If so, I am not too concerned re- the Brexit issue itself - but I share the concerns relating to the mood music on wider policy issues. After the 1992 GE I did not vote Labour again at a Parliamentary election until 2015, and I hope that fears of warmed up Blairism do not in the end force me to withold my support in 2024.
Look oldnat what Starmer has to deal with, many of them within his own party. I suppose your SNP membership are more like the kids in The Midwich Cuckoos in comparison. Would you have said the same thing to Michael Foot , Tony Benn, Barbara Castle, Peter Shore, Judith Hart & John Silkin in 1975 - and again at the 1983 election? |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 28, 2022 12:04:50 GMT
I suspect Starmer along with some others (including possibly Miliband) now realises the EU were way too right-wing economically, and although now moving leftwards still have some way to go. Anglo-pressure moved them leftwards and more is required.
Itâs such a shame we had Cameron/Osborne who mirrored the EU austerity approach and screwed with the move leftwards. But Brown did enough, esp. by convincing the Americans to move left, to get the EU to ditch austerity in time. Though itâs still too pro-capital and we need to keep up the pressure. (They know this of course, thatâs why reluctant to give us a Brexit that would enable more left wing policies).
Itâs possible too that Starmer is more Anglo-facing, as suggested by when he was DPP.
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Post by oldnat on Nov 28, 2022 12:13:03 GMT
I suspect your lack of knowledge about other political parties, is only matched by your fevered imagination. I'm not convinced that works. The first part is talking about a small amount and second part about a lot, so they can't match. I don't think you can talk about a big lack of knowledge really. Too much ambiguity all round. And what's the comma all about? It's not like you to use language so casually. |
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Post by graham on Nov 28, 2022 12:13:49 GMT
. " I did in fact vote Leave - because I came to the view that denying Cameron a political victory was paramount in the context of the style of politics being foisted on the country by him. " Well that worked out well didn't it! If Brexit has lost its political salience despite the polling evidence that clearly indicates the opposite is true, Starmer's insistence on no fundamental change to Brexit will actually bring it back front and centre as the obvious damage being caused makes both major party leadership look increasingly devoid of contact with reality. There is little indication from current polling that Brexit is a leading issue in the minds of the British electorate - despite the evidence that many now view it as a mistake. I also apportion blame for the Hard Brexit Deal to the extremists on both sides. The Hard Brexiteers clearly wanted the deal or something similar, whereas the Remainer Ultras failed to take advantage of the parliamentary arithmetic in the 2017 Parliament to produce a much softer version. Oliver Letwin presented them with opportunities which they failed to take - instead they attached themselves to the fantasies of Jo Swinson, ChangeUK et al. They too bear responsibility for the disaster which unfolded.
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Post by ladyvalerie on Nov 28, 2022 12:32:09 GMT
Accruing the current poll lead to Starmer who was nowhere till the Tories massively self-immolated is quite the stretch. Itâs like accruing the victory to Blair in â97 when Tory polling had already collapsed following Black Weds. There is a neat symmetry to the polls now compared to those when Starmer became Labour leader: Labour are now on average 22 points ahead of the Tories, whereas in April 2020 they were 22 points behind. The other polling fact in his favour is the lead Starmer has had over Johnson, Truss and Sunak in 'Best PM' polls. Neither Milliband nor Corbyn ever achieved this in a single poll in their (combined) 9 years as Labour leader. Many thanks for your contributions, James. So good there is someone posting on a polling site who actually knows something about polling. EDIT Removed a stray comma .. |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 28, 2022 12:40:59 GMT
There is a neat symmetry to the polls now compared to those when Starmer became Labour leader: Labour are now on average 22 points ahead of the Tories, whereas in April 2020 they were 22 points behind. The other polling fact in his favour is the lead Starmer has had over Johnson, Truss and Sunak in 'Best PM' polls. Neither Milliband nor Corbyn ever achieved this in a single poll in their (combined) 9 years as Labour leader. Many thanks for your contributions, James. So good there is someone posting on a polling site, who actually knows something about polling. Haha, being able to cite polling, is not the same as properly being able to explain it. Nothing James posted proves that the gain is mostly due to Starmer, as opposed to Tory implosion. Itâs like the time a while back, when I suggested that some might have voted for Brexit despite knowing they might take a hit for it, and this might have been enough to swing to Brexit. James E tried countering that by saying that actually, polling showed a majority thought Brexit would benefit them. robbiealive was quite taken with the idea this repudiated my point, but it didnât of course. Because even if itâs the case that fifty-something percent or whatever thought Brexit would benefit them, you only needed a few percent of the others to swing the vote, given how close it was. |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 28, 2022 12:45:58 GMT
There is a neat symmetry to the polls now compared to those when Starmer became Labour leader. EDIT Removed a stray comma .. That was the best bit!! |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 28, 2022 12:47:50 GMT
Nothing James posted proves that the gain is mostly due to Starmer, as opposed to Tory implosion. and myself have both mentioned that Starmer should be getting higher approval given where LAB are in the polls. LAB could be led by anyone at the moment and they'd be way ahead of CON in VI - but I'm glad they are not led by Corbyn or similar. Opposite for CON, where Rishi gets high approval ratings etc given where CON are in the polls (ie CON's brand damage is the reason for CON being so low, not their new/latest leader) |
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Post by jib on Nov 28, 2022 12:58:33 GMT
My view on the Lib Dems are well known. Toxic to anyone but a few die hards, and politics extremely toxic in their wake. Had they not chosen coalition in 2010 - and instead confidence and supply in exchange for PR - the UK would be a very different place. I'll be curious to see how willing Sir Keir is to revisit the way MPs are elected after LAB win a whopping majority under FPTP in GE'24. IIRC he wants to hold a 'convention' or something and a lot of LAB folks like a more PR based system when CON are in power. That might change when LAB are in power Quickly but quietly reverse the pure FPTP changes CON are proposing for Mayors* (if that even goes ahead) and push further devolution to regions but suddenly 'realise' that constituents should be served by a locally elected MP and not be from some centralised list. Maybe make each constituency a STV vote (which will 'stack the deck' to more LAB, less CON - for now at least) Anyway, absolutely no need for Sir Keir have anything to do with LDEM (other than getting their MP votes for 'free' if he needs to and copying some of their policy ideas for 'free' if he wants to)
Having won the Game of Thrones, you 'stack the deck' to ensure you keep the Iron Throne (PM in #10)
* www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/our-views-and-research/elections-act/changes-voting-system-mayoral-and-pcc-electionsA deeply pessimistic standpoint there, but probably how it will pan out. Labour will undoubtedly keep reform of the Iron Throne of Westminster (the Commons) off the agenda and offer crumbs like Lords reform and Regional devolution in the direction of electoral reform. |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 28, 2022 13:02:19 GMT
Repost of Ipsos Mori polling (a PS to previous post with polling evidence)
Rishi Sunak much more liked than the Conservative party..
Rishi Sunak also takes slight lead over Keir Starmer as most capable PMwww.ipsos.com/en-uk/rishi-sunak-much-more-liked-conservative-partyOne poll, possibly still in 'honeymoon' period but folks should compare Starmer-Rishi to where Blair was against Major/Hague/IDS/Howard. www.ipsos.com/en-uk/most-capable-prime-minister-trendsHowever, the above supports the point c-a-r-f-r-e-w et al have made. With Boris, then Truss and the ongoing 'rats in a sack', failure to control our borders, etc then CON have dug their own VI grave and a large part of LAB's current high polling is that they are the only other party that can win a majority in HoC. |
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Post by JohnC on Nov 28, 2022 13:03:15 GMT
ladyvalerie Being better than the Tories is a pretty low bar. Are you happy with Starmer conspiring with stealing our rights to free movement and red lining any effort to recover them, despite assuring us all that that was his intention just two years ago? Because if you are it appears somewhat indiscriminate support. I don't care what Starmer does. He has to be better than what we've had for the last 12 years. At 69 I've lost my intransigent idealism, I just want the Tories out and voting Labour (and tactically Lib Dem) is only way to do it. Bring it on. If what he does offends sufficient numbers of erstwhile supporters to mean that Labour ends up only being the largest party, then at least we will have the prospect of PR which won't happen if Labour wins by a landslide. |
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Post by graham on Nov 28, 2022 13:09:40 GMT
I don't care what Starmer does. He has to be better than what we've had for the last 12 years. At 69 I've lost my intransigent idealism, I just want the Tories out and voting Labour (and tactically Lib Dem) is only way to do it. Bring it on. If what he does offends sufficient numbers of erstwhile supporters to mean that Labour ends up only being the largest party, then at least we will have the prospect of PR which won't happen if Labour wins by a landslide. PR would still be highly unlikely. A significant chunk of the PLP would oppose it. |
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Post by wb61 on Nov 28, 2022 13:11:23 GMT
Many thanks for your contributions, James. So good there is someone posting on a polling site, who actually knows something about polling. Haha, being able to cite polling, is not the same as properly being able to explain it. Nothing James posted proves that the gain is mostly due to Starmer, as opposed to Tory implosion. Itâs like the time a while back, when I suggested that some might have voted for Brexit despite knowing they might take a hit for it, and this might have been enough to swing to Brexit. James E tried countering that by saying that actually, polling showed a majority thought Brexit would benefit them. robbiealive was quite taken with the idea this repudiated my point, but it didnât of course. Because even if itâs the case that fifty-something percent or whatever thought Brexit would benefit them, you only needed a few percent of the others to swing the vote, given how close it was. âContrariwise,' continued Tweedledee, 'if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn't, it ain't. That's logic.â |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 28, 2022 13:19:40 GMT
Haha, being able to cite polling, is not the same as properly being able to explain it. Nothing James posted proves that the gain is mostly due to Starmer, as opposed to Tory implosion. Itâs like the time a while back, when I suggested that some might have voted for Brexit despite knowing they might take a hit for it, and this might have been enough to swing to Brexit. James E tried countering that by saying that actually, polling showed a majority thought Brexit would benefit them. robbiealive was quite taken with the idea this repudiated my point, but it didnât of course. Because even if itâs the case that fifty-something percent or whatever thought Brexit would benefit them, you only needed a few percent of the others to swing the vote, given how close it was. âContrariwise,' continued Tweedledee, 'if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn't, it ain't. That's logic.â Says the lawyer who tried to tell us the DPP doesnât have a role in extradition!! |
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Post by shevii on Nov 28, 2022 13:20:51 GMT
Oh, but the agonising, the internal torment and the martyrdom of it all is where the real enjoyment lies. Feel my purity. See how it bleeds for the cause. Understand my thought processes. Lionise my abstention. See the principles I die in the ditch for. For I am pure and unsullied and never compromise. And I want you of cynical ideology-free nothingness to know and appreciate my agony and higher principle. A vote for any party in our electoral system is a stab in the dark in many ways. More often a device to get rid of the incumbents than anything much else. To put in their place something that might be a bit better. UK political parties are such vast conglomerations of interests, members, policies, personalities and voters that it's often a miracle anything coherent ever emerges. The idea that such unwieldy conglomerations will ever truly cohere is risible But it is what it is. Some conglomerations are more benign than others. Your post is a bit condescending by using words such as "purity" and assigning attributes to the people who have doubts, that in some way they want to posture about being holier than thou (while letting the Tories in, despite not voting Tory). Maybe they just care deeply about freedom of movement or some other issue. I don't actually believe, as far as I can know anyone on a public forum, that we have much difference in what we would ideally like to see in terms of policy or in terms of our willingness to make compromises to what is achievable to gain power and to use it. It's just that I don't believe the current Labour Party is on the right page for any of my beliefs (currently a choice between austerity and austerity lite- the same choice as 2010) whereas you do, and while I believe that Labour will be better than the Tories, I have my doubts Labour will be significantly better in a way that resolves the fundamental issues facing the country. That's nothing to do with me posturing as somehow being more "left wing" or righteous than you are and I can respect a different point of view without thinking someone is a "Pink Tory". The reality is that people have varying tolerances to what issues they consider important and to the package on offer from Labour (we await to see exactly what that will be but only have depressing mood music at the moment) and what tips them into voting for a smaller party. You may be right that they will make some perceptible difference and I may be wrong but I am fairly convinced that they won't. One other key thing you accept in your line of thinking is that there will never be anything other than a two party system so we always have to vote for the lesser of two evils, whereas we have examples of Labour in the early 1900's and SNP in the 1980's onwards where change is possible despite risks to letting the Tories in. I think you were one of those who believes in PR and it's possible that a Labour government might mean that PR is more likely given all those in Labour who actually like the idea, but it seems to me very unlikely that with a stonking majority and a wider leadership who appear to be against PR that they will even consider such a course of action. Realistically the only time PR comes into play is in a hung parliament scenario. Anyway this debate is rather superfluous as I can't see any way that Starmer won't get a very good majority at the next election because of the Tory implosion (and, to be fair to his positioning, not scaring any Tory voter's horses). Long term more of the people who Labour should be in tune with will move to will not vote or other parties and Labour policy will be based on what these soft Tory voters want while neglecting their core vote as happened in 2005 to 2010. |
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Post by wb61 on Nov 28, 2022 13:23:35 GMT
âContrariwise,' continued Tweedledee, 'if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn't, it ain't. That's logic.â Says the lawyer who tried to tell us the DPP doesnât have a role in extradition!! You would pick an argument in an empty room |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 28, 2022 13:26:52 GMT
Nothing James posted proves that the gain is mostly due to Starmer, as opposed to Tory implosion. and myself have both mentioned that Starmer should be getting higher approval given where LAB are in the polls. LAB could be led by anyone at the moment and they'd be way ahead of CON in VI So does this mean those other reasons for poll gains - implosion over partygate, BJ making some questionable appointments, replacing BJ with someone for a few weeks then replacing them again etc. - werenât all down to Starmer? |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 28, 2022 13:30:16 GMT
Says the lawyer who tried to tell us the DPP doesnât have a role in extradition!! You would pick an argument in an empty room Objection your honour: You picked that argument with shevii as I recall. And James E took issue with me. The whole Starmer thing was already going before I joined in. Tweedledum etc. indeed. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 28, 2022 13:41:23 GMT
jimjam and myself have both mentioned that Starmer should be getting higher approval given where LAB are in the polls. LAB could be led by anyone at the moment and they'd be way ahead of CON in VI So does this mean those other reasons for poll gains - implosion over partygate, BJ making some questionable appointments, replacing BJ with someone for a few weeks then replacing them again etc. - werenât all down to Starmer? Credit where credit is due. The one 'Starmer' specific factor is perhaps making it very clear he is 'Not Corbyn' and that LAB is back under NewLAB (Tory Plan B) management, but 'Pro-Brexit' now rather than 'EU-Centric' as both parties were under Major->Blair/Brown->Cameron. Most folks will be glad to see that LAB are once again 'electable' but I appreciate some Far-Left types are upset they've missed their one chance to get someone into #10 (thankfully it was Corbyn or no-one as the alternative back in the dark days of Brexit gridlock and Remain MPs opted for 'no one' which led to betting everything on the Final Say, People's Vote of GE'19 - gifting Boris exactly what he wanted) Someone might have a "theory" that Starmer made Boris do all the partying during Covid and Truss do the WTF mini-budget but one other actual real World observation is that Starmer has gone a lot more on the offensive recently (ie the days of 'constructive opposition' are over even whilst he is simultaneously becoming more and more like the New Model Tory party) Saying the current Tory HMG is useless, incompetent, etc (something most us know already - see R&W polling that specifically asks about competency) whilst then becoming the Tory party. As I've said many times. Well played Sir Keir, well played Sir. |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 28, 2022 13:46:26 GMT
So does this mean those other reasons for poll gains - implosion over partygate, BJ making some questionable appointments, replacing BJ with someone for a few weeks then replacing them again etc. - werenât all down to Starmer? Credit where credit is due. The one 'Starmer' specific factor is perhaps making it very clear he is 'Not Corbyn' and that LAB is back under NewLAB (Tory Plan B) management, but 'Pro-Brexit' now rather than 'EU-Centric' as both parties were under Major->Blair/Brown->Cameron. All in favour of giving credit where itâs due, indeed Starmer might be due even more credit e.g. on nationalising rail and having a state energy champion, given polling on nationalisations. which are so centrist now even majority of Tories back them for key things. Itâs just that there is merit in considering all the factors, and Tories did harm themselves quite a lot. |
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