Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Mar 26, 2023 14:14:30 GMT
I guess this is a reasonable moment to note that I will be standing for Labour in Braintree in May. It is not one of the target wards (which receive most of the support) but is one that could be won in the event of a landslide. Needs a swing of 14.2% compared to the 2019 elections (which were awful for Labour in Braintree). Respect and good luck to both of you, I'm sure you'd make great councillors. My guess is LDEM are (again?) posting 'paper candidates'* in a lot of Hertfordshire wards but FWIU steve hasn't been specific about his ward or council. They have a quite a few safe wards in areas like St.Albans and whilst they get a lot of 'churn' in membership, they'll be putting their best candidates into their safest seats and maybe hoping the crap ones encourage people to vote for the more obvious ABCON party (ie LAB who are 2nd in a lot of Hertfordshire). I hope he does well though - help split the ABCON vote and keep my local polity Blue  Then onto Peter Wyatt (Braintree West - which isn't rural)? www.labour4witham.org.uk/Rural2023/Yeah, well, you never know and EC think it would be close but probably not in the May'23 LEs and although JC4PM never happened then JC4Braintree will v.likely win again in GE'24 (IMO). www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=BraintreeNot my seat but my 'local' interest spans Herts+Essex (and up the East Coast of England) * Into any election you get some areas with a lot of the Orange signs in LDEM areas and zero elsewhere. Not my party of course but I do have a suspicion they engage in 'grassroots' tactical voting with LAB - which seems to be different for LEs and GEs. Unproven of course and they might as well share literature given neither LDEM or LAB are offering anything 'different' to CON but will just be 'moaning' about how shit CON are. Might get some CON VI to 'stay at home' but might not encourage the ABCONs to bother getting out of bed to vote for either LDEM or LAB either. See:
How the Tories, Lib Dems and Labour are tackling key local elections as a rehearsal for the general electioninews.co.uk/news/politics/local-elections-may-tories-lib-dem-labour-dress-rehearsal-general-election-2233937Sir Ed Davey (of coalition 2010-15) pitch.
"Yes, I was in the coalition and am offering nothing new,
No, I don't want to talk about Rejoin
but vote LDEM as we.. uhhmmm... aren't Orange Tories anymore, even though I can't tell you what we actually are" |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Mar 26, 2023 14:25:03 GMT
This poll would be a good basis for Labour to decide which second jobs for MPs should be banned
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2023 14:36:09 GMT
I have . Whilst the CDO recruits senior figures I am concerned. But I agree that all Sunak can do is keep doing the problem solving stuff and hope that voters notice come the day. Conservative Members are certainly not going to. CDO* fairly new and I'm not sure of their numbers WRT to MPs. They are causing 'Momentum' (LAB) style mischief at constituency level and it's always wise to be concerned. I'm not sure if all of the 22 MPs who rebelled against the WF are signed up 'CDO' MPs - quite a few of that bunch were 'mavericks' who were never really ERG, but did have similar views. I was disappointed to see Patel amongst the CDOs who walked through the same 'door of death' as Boris. She is certainly a card carrying CDO. She was very disappointing as H.Sec and appears to have a 'scorned' personal vendetta against Rishi even though it was her mate Truss who kicked her out. Likes of Patel and Truss have massive majorities in their constituencies and will very unlikely ever get a cabinet role ever again. So they have nothing 'personal' to lose, just switching the back benches of govt to opposition side in HoC. Those 'vendetta' kind of people are a concern for sure and not unique to CON of course! Similar to Starmer approach then Rishi can use rising VI and pick his battles to try to nip CDO in the bud (as per Starmer defanging Momentum and the SCG faction of LAB). CON can't let CDO become the kind of toxic divisive grass roots group that Momentum became for LAB. Killing off Boris** would be a good start as without an obvious 'leader' amongst MPs they will likely wither and die as per various other CON factions in the past. * www.conservativedems.co.uk** He's not totally dead yet. I can't see him making a come back and it will take a while for the 'process' of the Privileges committee to get to a by-election that does kick him out. It's also possible Boris gets off with just a slap on the wrist (apology). If it does get to a by-election then Rishi has to back the CON candidate (Boris) but he can do that as enthusiastically as Corbyn backed Remain Yeah-it feels very much like a Tory Momentum |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 26, 2023 14:38:44 GMT
Just for Trev's sake, I will note that absolutely no one thinks the Braintree parliamentary seat will be won by anyone but the Conservatives (presumably still the misnamed Cleverly) anymore than Patel will be dislodged in Witham. But of course local elections and local authorities have their own value.
Labour won the old Braintree seat in 1997 and 2001, but on very different boundaries, when it included the towns of Braintree and Witham but a lot less countryside.
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Post by leftieliberal on Mar 26, 2023 14:50:15 GMT
This is a disgraceful attitude towards what is the finest chamber choir in the whole UK. They are based in London simply because when the BBC (and shortly afterwards the BBC Singers) was founded there wasn't the emphasis on spreading BBC production facilities across the whole UK that there is now. Unlike manufacturing where it is relatively easy to move a factory from one place to another, you cannot move the arts easily because they depend almost entirely on people not physical objects. The Arts Council for England have already learned this lesson the hard way when they tried to kick the ENO out of London and force them to go to Manchester, without even any consultation with the mayor of Greater Manchester. The Scottish and Welsh BBC orchestras also get funding from their respective devolved governments, which is why this particular cut does not affect them. Cutting off the best is not levelling up; it is levelling down.
I thought at first that this was a joke or spoof post, but then noting the use of bold type, I see it is a straight giving out of a strange view. How do you know that the BBC Singers are the finest chamber choir in the UK - have you really heard some other elite ones to judge? I very much doubt that Harry Christophers (The Sixteen) would agree, or even John Kitchen whom i mentioned last night as playing with the Scottish Chamber Choir. But we don`t have competitions to compare the choirs, instead recordings. I read though, that you explain the Scottish and Welsh BBC orchestras not having cuts since they are helped by their national governments, hence people living there are contributing because those governments have to source cash from inhabitants in some way. Fine, but why cannot the England part of UK Gov fund their elite choir rather than expect taxpayers in Scotland and Wales to pay twice for good music. I am also not sure that a choir being "full-time" is a quality to aim for, or pay for. Many singers will say they cannot use their voices for long periods, certainly not as long as instrumental players (though not brass). The Sixteen manage with ad-hoc practising for future performances, and whilst Oxbridge college choirs reach high standards their members have also lessons and lectures to attend. Son in his Cambridge college choir had two singers join from King`s - their reason being that too much singing was overwhelming them and making their degree course too hard. As for Steve and Dacorum, surely folk there can easily hear good music in St Albans and London, and it would be ridiculous to expect Aberdeen`s fairly small outputs to be provided in Tring or Hemel. You clearly don't know much about classical music from your comments. I have attended well over 1000 Proms concerts apart from many other classical concerts and I have heard Harry Christophers' The Sixteen live as well as many other soloists and choirs. I was also married to a classically-trained singer for over 30 years before her death and anyone who says I am also not sure that a choir being "full-time" is a quality to aim for, or pay for. Many singers will say they cannot use their voices for long periods, doesn't understand the proper training of the singing voice. It is quite a common failing in the UK; my late wife had her voice ruined by Ruth Packer at the RCM. Only later when she had her voice re-trained by Andy Field - the husband of the better-known Audrey Langford - (who recognised that she was a dramatic mezzo, not the light soprano that Ruth Packer thought) was she able to sing for extended periods (and I mean continuously for several hours at a time) without damage to her voice. Your son's experience in his Cambridge college choir doesn't surprise me, I doubt that anyone there knows about the Husler method. Here's an article about it: petersenvoicestudio.com/2014/08/12/spending-time-with-husler-and-rodd-marling-or-my-re-evaluation-of-placement/ . The article also namechecks Peter Harrison, most associated with the Husler technique in England. |
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Post by graham on Mar 26, 2023 14:59:38 GMT
I have . Whilst the CDO recruits senior figures I am concerned. But I agree that all Sunak can do is keep doing the problem solving stuff and hope that voters notice come the day. Conservative Members are certainly not going to. CDO* fairly new and I'm not sure of their numbers WRT to MPs. They are causing 'Momentum' (LAB) style mischief at constituency level and it's always wise to be concerned. I'm not sure if all of the 22 MPs who rebelled against the WF are signed up 'CDO' MPs - quite a few of that bunch were 'mavericks' who were never really ERG, but did have similar views. I was disappointed to see Patel amongst the CDOs who walked through the same 'door of death' as Boris. She is certainly a card carrying CDO. She was very disappointing as H.Sec and appears to have a 'scorned' personal vendetta against Rishi even though it was her mate Truss who kicked her out. Likes of Patel and Truss have massive majorities in their constituencies and will very unlikely ever get a cabinet role ever again. So they have nothing 'personal' to lose, just switching the back benches of govt to opposition side in HoC. Those 'vendetta' kind of people are a concern for sure and not unique to CON of course! Similar to Starmer approach then Rishi can use rising VI and pick his battles to try to nip CDO in the bud (as per Starmer defanging Momentum and the SCG faction of LAB). CON can't let CDO become the kind of toxic divisive grass roots group that Momentum became for LAB. Killing off Boris** would be a good start as without an obvious 'leader' amongst MPs they will likely wither and die as per various other CON factions in the past. * www.conservativedems.co.uk** He's not totally dead yet. I can't see him making a come back and it will take a while for the 'process' of the Privileges committee to get to a by-election that does kick him out. It's also possible Boris gets off with just a slap on the wrist (apology). If it does get to a by-election then Rishi has to back the CON candidate (Boris) but he can do that as enthusiastically as Corbyn backed Remain Whilst 22 Tory MPs voted against the WF, a further 30 or so abstained. Total rebels,therefore, exceeded 50. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2023 15:02:40 GMT
You clearly don't know much about classical music from your comments. I have attended well over 1000 Proms concerts apart from many other classical concerts and I have heard Harry Christophers' The Sixteen live as well as many other soloists and choirs. I was also married to a classically-trained singer for over 30 years before her death and anyone who says I am also not sure that a choir being "full-time" is a quality to aim for, or pay for. Many singers will say they cannot use their voices for long periods, doesn't understand the proper training of the singing voice. It is quite a common failing in the UK; my late wife had her voice ruined by Ruth Packer at the RCM. Only later when she had her voice re-trained by Andy Field - the husband of the better-known Audrey Langford - (who recognised that she was a dramatic mezzo, not the light soprano that Ruth Packer thought) was she able to sing for extended periods (and I mean continuously for several hours at a time) without damage to her voice. Your son's experience in his Cambridge college choir doesn't surprise me, I doubt that anyone there knows about the Husler method. Here's an article about it: petersenvoicestudio.com/2014/08/12/spending-time-with-husler-and-rodd-marling-or-my-re-evaluation-of-placement/ . The article also namechecks Peter Harrison, most associated with the Husler technique in England. Fascinating post Leftie. Posts like this-which suddenly provide an informative and interesting insight into the writer's life-are really great. |
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Post by graham on Mar 26, 2023 15:23:01 GMT
There are reports of ferry boats and old military bases being used to hold refugees. Effectively they would be de facto concentration camps - and should be labelled as such by the Opposition parties.
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Post by davwel on Mar 26, 2023 15:40:34 GMT
@ Colin and Leftie Liberal Voice training is a controversial thing that is beyond my abilities or interest. But I am sorry to hear of distress caused by attempts at conversion in this; or of conversions in personal morality that conflict with individual`s make-up and development. A person that had strong views on voice training was Charles Cleall, who at one time had a weekly column in the Church of England Newspaper. But after being a singer and choir director in Southern England he ended up being a school inspector judging music standards in Scottish schools. And we had him up in Banchory, with my son summoned to report on our Academy. www.encyclopedia.com/arts/culture-magazines/cleall-charles |
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Post by mercian on Mar 26, 2023 15:48:28 GMT
There are reports of ferry boats and old military bases being used to hold refugees. Effectively they would be de facto concentration camps - and should be labelled as such by the Opposition parties. Well I suppose if they don't like it here they could always.... |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Mar 26, 2023 16:06:25 GMT
There are reports of ferry boats and old military bases being used to hold refugees. Effectively they would be de facto concentration camps - and should be labelled as such by the Opposition parties. Well I suppose if they don't like it here they could always.... Given most folks currently think CON are not handling the issue of immigration very well (happy to repost all of the polling on that) then I expect most folks would might consider voting CON would be pleased to see some progress. There is even some specific polling on the use of docked cruise ships which might surprise those locked in a Far-Liberal bubble but shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who has followed the polling on the immigration issue. |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Mar 26, 2023 16:08:49 GMT
YG trackers. Rishi is starting to turn the tide on Economy but not yet on Immigration (3rd most important issue - more so for CON'19 than LAB'19 folks). On immigration the CON types want to see 'action not words' and ABCON types don't like the words. A lot of ABCON will never vote CON so it is not their votes that Rishi needs to win. It is the CON'19 that have moved to DK, RUK or LAB (the latter on the basis that LAB wouldn't do any worse than CON on issues such as immigration).
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 26, 2023 16:10:47 GMT
There are reports of ferry boats and old military bases being used to hold refugees. Effectively they would be de facto concentration camps - and should be labelled as such by the Opposition parties. Well, concentration camps were of course a British invention. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Mar 26, 2023 16:19:01 GMT
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Mar 26, 2023 16:22:07 GMT
Also note the NIMBY view of Local Councils. Such as this LDEM chap: Leader David King (Lib Dem) said: “Colchester is proud to be a place of sanctuary [but] I am angry at the Home Office's failings and that we face new arrivals when others do not, when many of our partner authorities across the UK are not called upon to do their bit.” www.lgcplus.com/services/housing/more-councils-plan-legal-action-over-asylum-places-07-11-2022/CON have dithered and delayed on the immigration issue for too long. Folks are NIMBY about having them dumped in their local area - even the supposedly 'Liberal' LDEM types. With LEs coming up then CON need to show they are finally doing something and moving 'new arrivals' out of hotels in local areas to disused military sites and/or unused cruise ships isn't fixing the problem but it is making it less of a toxic local issue (as we saw in Knowsley recently). PS If Scotland want to house lots of them in their polity then I'm sure if they ask then CON HMG would be interested in shipping them up there. PPS Note the start of the supply chain is getting a lot worse this year already. Although the 'let them all in' types don't seem to be aware of how serious the problem is - not just in UK, but much worse in places like Italy and starting to get very nasty even closer to the source in N.Africa:
Tunisia migrants: At least 29 die off coastwww.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65081585
EU fears Tunisia turmoil will spark migrant boat departureseuobserver.com/migration/156852 |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 26, 2023 16:39:11 GMT
Thank you very much indeed for the link about the Husler method, Leftie! |
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Post by James E on Mar 26, 2023 16:42:13 GMT
Labour's relative strength in rural Norfolk in the first half of the 20th century was based on agricultural trade unionism among farm workers. When they were replaced by mechanisation it was game over and they became 'normal' Tory voting rural areas - albeit in Norfolk North the Lib Dems were able to capture some of the old anti-Tory feeling for a while. Indeed so - though Labour remained competitive in rural Norfolk seats until 1970. Today only Norfolk North West - which includes Kings Lynn - remains a possibility for the party. Pedant Alert - the most viable Labour target in rural Norfolk is now South Norfolk, where a 17-point swing is needed. That 17-point swing compares to 20% for Great Yarmouth and 21% for Norfolk North-West - both Labour seats back in 1997. South Norfolk was one of a handful of seats which the Tories could easily have lost in 1997 (with 40%), but the LDs and Labour were then almost equal-second. In recent elections (post-coalition) it has trended to Labour, as their vote is up 6% since GE2015 (compared to +2% in GB vote) while the Tories are up 4% (compared to +8% for GB). I'd tentatively suggest that the areas bordering Norwich may have become more promising for Labour. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Norfolk_(UK_Parliament_constituency)www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Mar 26, 2023 16:54:31 GMT
Indeed so - though Labour remained competitive in rural Norfolk seats until 1970. Today only Norfolk North West - which includes Kings Lynn - remains a possibility for the party. Pedant Alert - the most viable Labour target in rural Norfolk is now South Norfolk, where a 17-point swing is needed. It was one of a handful of sets which the Tories could easily have lost in 1997 (with 40%), but the LDs and Labour were then almost equal-second. In recent elections (post-coalition) it has trended to Labour, as their vote is up 6% since GE2015 (compared to +2% in GB vote) while the Tories are up 4% (compared to +8% for GB). I'd tentatively suggest that the areas bordering Norwich may have become more promising for Labour. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Norfolk_(UK_Parliament_constituency)www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labourSouth Norfolk and many seats in East Anglia are seats where RUK could well split the RoC vote and provide LAB with unexpected wins. Without wishing to out pedant your pedantry then some coastal (rural) Norfolk seats could end up LAB if RUK split the RoC vote - hence the importance of Rishi-Braverman sorting the immigration issue. Brandon Lewis seat: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Great%20YarmouthBXP didn't stand candidates in CON 'hold' seats in GE'19 and hence a lot of seats that used to get fairly high UKIP% are potentially easier for LAB to win on a split vote - compounded by LAB being the obvious ABCON party in most of those seats and quite possibly squeezing the LDEM/Green vote (which isn't very much but could well make the difference in some close races). |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2023 17:00:44 GMT
Also note the NIMBY view of Local Councils. Such as this LDEM chap: Leader David King (Lib Dem) said: “Colchester is proud to be a place of sanctuary [but] I am angry at the Home Office's failings and that we face new arrivals when others do not, when many of our partner authorities across the UK are not called upon to do their bit.” www.lgcplus.com/services/housing/more-councils-plan-legal-action-over-asylum-places-07-11-2022/CON have dithered and delayed on the immigration issue for too long. Folks are NIMBY about having them dumped in their local area - even the supposedly 'Liberal' LDEM types. With LEs coming up then CON need to show they are finally doing something and moving 'new arrivals' out of hotels in local areas to disused military sites and/or unused cruise ships isn't fixing the problem but it is making it less of a toxic local issue (as we saw in Knowsley recently). PS If Scotland want to house lots of them in their polity then I'm sure if they ask then CON HMG would be interested in shipping them up there. PPS Note the start of the supply chain is getting a lot worse this year already. Although the 'let them all in' types don't seem to be aware of how serious the problem is - not just in UK, but much worse in places like Italy and starting to get very nasty even closer to the source in N.Africa:
Tunisia migrants: At least 29 die off coastwww.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65081585
EU fears Tunisia turmoil will spark migrant boat departureseuobserver.com/migration/156852Yes getting much worse on the N.African route. |
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Post by hireton on Mar 26, 2023 17:50:09 GMT
Extracts from a Mathew Goodwin article about his new book :-Values, Voice and Virtue: The New British Politics. "Britain is on the cusp of a “progressive” revolution that will transform politics and society." " This progressive tide, steadily building for a decade, is poised to usher in a different political and cultural zeitgeist." "It is being propelled by three specific groups." "The first is the rising number of middle-class professional graduates, the big winners of John Major’s and Tony Blair’s expansion of the universities.Shaped by their degrees and far more liberal values, Britain’s graduate class are increasingly trending leftwards, reflecting the rise of a new “education divide” in the West, where the graduate minority is steadily drifting away from the non-graduate majority.Were only degree-holders able to vote in 2017, Jeremy Corbyn would have been elected prime minister. This is why parties on the liberal left, not just Labour but also the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, dominate almost all the big cities and university towns, and are invading the southern, graduate-heavy commuter belt where professionals are spilling from the capital." "The second is Britain’s young Millennials and even younger Zoomers, born after 1996, who may only remember Conservative governments. They too are flooding into the electorate. Before the rise of Blair there was no real difference in the political loyalties of young and old. But since then, the gulf between them has become enormous. At the last election, nearly eight in ten of the youngest voters backed the liberal left. Now not even one in five say they plan to vote Tory next year." "The final group is the rapidly rising number of voters from minority backgrounds, more than three-quarters of whom vote for the liberal left, with the vast majority voting Labour. At the last election, the Tories had a 20-point lead over Labour among white Britons, but among black and ethnic minority voters Labour had more than a 40-point lead. Of the 50 seats with the largest number of Muslims, the Tories won three." But Goodwin doesn't ask where Tory votes are coming from-he asks :- "But will the progressive tide automatically translate into large Labour majorities? Not necessarily. While these groups will increasingly dominate Britain’s institutions, using their immense cultural and political power to reshape Westminster, the media and cultural and educational institutions, the progressive tide will also inject new problems into politics." "One is geography. All the groups propelling it forward live in the same parts of the country, in the big cities and university towns." "This is underlined by a second problem: how the progressive tide is already driving a wedge between the liberal graduates who dominate the institutions and the much larger number of voters who have to live with the consequences of their decisions.Over the past decade, in response to Brexit and Trump, the graduate class have intensified their liberalism, embracing an even more radical “woke” progressivism, a belief system which I estimate is held by 15 per cent of the country. This “Great Awokening” among white liberal graduates, visible in America and Britain, is reflected in their increasingly passionate support for both legal and illegal immigration, their tendency to see Britain’s history as overwhelmingly negative, and their firm belief that western nations are “institutionally racist”. These beliefs are understandable, but they are not shared by anywhere close to a majority of voters, and are often repelling them, setting the stage for a new populist backlash, like we see in France, Italy and Sweden." He concludes with a rather unsatisfactory :"So while the looming progressive tide may be celebrated by the left, in reality it will be more complex than many think, possibly pushing politics into an even more turbulent future." What does he mean by "Turbulent" ??. - France writ large ? If i understood him he means the "opposition" to his liberal tide is more, not less Trumpism. So where does that leave Sunak's brand of Conservatism ? This is a classic Goodwin piece. First, the use of language such as "dominate", "invading","looming" to describe social changes he disapproves of and that these changes " inject problems" into politics (which would presumably otherwise continue untroubled in a way he approves of) Second,the crude typology so that, for example, society is divided between a a "liberal left", "liberal elite" and an undefined large group who disagree with them. Third, the crude unevidenced assertion about belief and motive. For example, the assertion that the "liberal elite" (whatever that might be) passionately supports legal and illegal immigration and so on. And he somewhere conjures out of the air his personal estimate that undefined "radical, woke progressivism" is a view held by 15% of the population. Fourth, the lack of counter arguments especially any recognition of the push back by right wing politicians and groups against existing rights. But Goodwin's grift has to continue. So disappointed that his looked for populist triumph after Brexit never materialised he now predicts another populist backlash. The one certainty is that Goodwin will create a market for his output. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Mar 26, 2023 17:56:15 GMT
Extracts from a Mathew Goodwin article about his new book :-Values, Voice and Virtue: The New British Politics. "Britain is on the cusp of a “progressive” revolution that will transform politics and society." " This progressive tide, steadily building for a decade, is poised to usher in a different political and cultural zeitgeist." "It is being propelled by three specific groups." "The first is the rising number of middle-class professional graduates, the big winners of John Major’s and Tony Blair’s expansion of the universities.Shaped by their degrees and far more liberal values, Britain’s graduate class are increasingly trending leftwards, reflecting the rise of a new “education divide” in the West, where the graduate minority is steadily drifting away from the non-graduate majority.Were only degree-holders able to vote in 2017, Jeremy Corbyn would have been elected prime minister. This is why parties on the liberal left, not just Labour but also the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, dominate almost all the big cities and university towns, and are invading the southern, graduate-heavy commuter belt where professionals are spilling from the capital." "The second is Britain’s young Millennials and even younger Zoomers, born after 1996, who may only remember Conservative governments. They too are flooding into the electorate. Before the rise of Blair there was no real difference in the political loyalties of young and old. But since then, the gulf between them has become enormous. At the last election, nearly eight in ten of the youngest voters backed the liberal left. Now not even one in five say they plan to vote Tory next year." "The final group is the rapidly rising number of voters from minority backgrounds, more than three-quarters of whom vote for the liberal left, with the vast majority voting Labour. At the last election, the Tories had a 20-point lead over Labour among white Britons, but among black and ethnic minority voters Labour had more than a 40-point lead. Of the 50 seats with the largest number of Muslims, the Tories won three." But Goodwin doesn't ask where Tory votes are coming from-he asks :- "But will the progressive tide automatically translate into large Labour majorities? Not necessarily. While these groups will increasingly dominate Britain’s institutions, using their immense cultural and political power to reshape Westminster, the media and cultural and educational institutions, the progressive tide will also inject new problems into politics." "One is geography. All the groups propelling it forward live in the same parts of the country, in the big cities and university towns." "This is underlined by a second problem: how the progressive tide is already driving a wedge between the liberal graduates who dominate the institutions and the much larger number of voters who have to live with the consequences of their decisions.Over the past decade, in response to Brexit and Trump, the graduate class have intensified their liberalism, embracing an even more radical “woke” progressivism, a belief system which I estimate is held by 15 per cent of the country. This “Great Awokening” among white liberal graduates, visible in America and Britain, is reflected in their increasingly passionate support for both legal and illegal immigration, their tendency to see Britain’s history as overwhelmingly negative, and their firm belief that western nations are “institutionally racist”. These beliefs are understandable, but they are not shared by anywhere close to a majority of voters, and are often repelling them, setting the stage for a new populist backlash, like we see in France, Italy and Sweden." He concludes with a rather unsatisfactory :"So while the looming progressive tide may be celebrated by the left, in reality it will be more complex than many think, possibly pushing politics into an even more turbulent future." What does he mean by "Turbulent" ??. - France writ large ? If i understood him he means the "opposition" to his liberal tide is more, not less Trumpism. So where does that leave Sunak's brand of Conservatism ? This is a classic Goodwin piece. First, the use of language such as "dominate", "invading","looming" to describe social changes he disapproves of and that these changes " inject problems" into politics (which would presumably otherwise continue untroubled in a way he approves of) Second,the crude typology so that, for example, society is divided between a a "liberal left", "liberal elite" and an undefined large group who disagree with them. Third, the crude unevidenced assertion about belief and motive. For example, the assertion that the "liberal elite" (whatever that might be) passionately supports legal and illegal immigration and so on. And he somewhere conjures out of the air his personal estimate that undefined "radical, woke progressivism" is a view held by 15% of the population. Fourth, the lack of counter arguments especially any recognition of the push back by right wing politicians and groups against existing rights. But Goodwin's grift has to continue. So disappointed that his looked for populist triumph after Brexit never materialised he now predicts another populist backlash. The one certainty is that Goodwin will create a market for his output. The bottom line is they wish to make an 'enemy of the people' of anyone with an education or a conscience or it would seem possessing that characteristic that I think entitled boomers thought was theirs for ever and the loss of drives a lot of their radical bitterness: Youth. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 26, 2023 18:17:30 GMT
"But will the progressive tide automatically translate into large Labour majorities? Not necessarily. While these groups will increasingly dominate Britain’s institutions, using their immense cultural and political power to reshape Westminster, the media and cultural and educational institutions, the progressive tide will also inject new problems into politics." I saw that article too, while some of it’s rather stereotypical, it’s an interesting question, what the impact will be. Or questions. It’s possible, for example, that there might be a significant difference between some of the younger and some of the older progressives. With some of the latter apt to focus on aspects of the progressive that align more with middle class interests. The younger might be more thoroughly progressive on average. |
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Post by hireton on Mar 26, 2023 18:35:36 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Mar 26, 2023 18:52:07 GMT
Trevor
I thought it was clear we are standing in Hemel Hempstead, we're actually both standing as it's a two councillor ward in the ward where we live.
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Post by graham on Mar 26, 2023 19:08:17 GMT
There are reports of ferry boats and old military bases being used to hold refugees. Effectively they would be de facto concentration camps - and should be labelled as such by the Opposition parties. Well, concentration camps were of course a British invention. Indeed - and again under a Tory Government |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 26, 2023 19:16:55 GMT
These days since lockdown etc., many lectures may have been recorded on video allowing students to catch up later. It can be preferable in some ways as students can work at their own pace, take a break, rewind and check something again etc. We used to do this back in the mid-nineties in the media department at a college I worked at, but we had our own video technicians and editing suites etc. But this is simply the OU model. lectures by video at your home or wherever is convenient. No need for huge university buuildings at all. No need for lecturers once you have done all the recordings. It implies the industry is mostly a huge waste of money. Well I get the sense you are aware of issues with the way things are quite often done, and you have a point, though there is a bit more to it, that people don’t tend to talk about. For example, you couldn’t easily deliver my lectures by just replaying a video, because they involved quite a bit more than just talking. In many of mine you were interacting with students in the room, because they might for example be demonstrating what they had been trying to do in the studios, and asking how to realise ideas they had had, helping them try out ideas to that end with the gear, and be getting feedback and ideas from other students and so on. In some respects therefore they were rather like large tutorial groups. But I wasn’t usually doing this sort of approach with as many as 200 students that you were talking of, which would be rather more challenging! If you are just giving a talk though, maybe with a few questions from the students, then it’s easier to just video, but of course quite often there wouldn’t just be the lectures, but the students would also cover more in tutorial groups on the subject as well. That’s what they did for media theory, for example. Whereas for my subject, it was just a lecture, no tutorials. Which was rather backwards since it was rather technical and a lot to learn - that you have to learn or you can’t do much at all - and you rather need to get them trying things out with your oversight. Thus the easier stuff to teach, got lectures AND tutorials, while the harder stuff - that would often incorporate media theory anyway - got less teaching time. Which is one reason the theorists tended to more often wind up in charge. (Another reason is that they didn’t have to manage gear, and another is that they didn’t have to design custom teaching materials and could just repackage stuff from textbooks etc., so they had a lot more time to network. They also didn’t have to hustle for money for equipment etc.) The OU of course also had a model of lectures and tutorials. And yes, if with things like theory the OU provides recorded lectures, and then has some local tutorial groups, then for those things the model is not dissimilar to Uni courses on campus that use recorded lectures supplemented by tutorials. In some ways the OU might offer extra, with those teaching materials designed to encourage students to figure stuff out (which is the sort of thing I liked to do and it’s not easy!) However some courses like what I taught could require a lot of equipment and tech support that the OU might struggle to offer. |
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Post by graham on Mar 26, 2023 19:21:08 GMT
Indeed so - though Labour remained competitive in rural Norfolk seats until 1970. Today only Norfolk North West - which includes Kings Lynn - remains a possibility for the party. Pedant Alert - the most viable Labour target in rural Norfolk is now South Norfolk, where a 17-point swing is needed. That 17-point swing compares to 20% for Great Yarmouth and 21% for Norfolk North-West - both Labour seats back in 1997. South Norfolk was one of a handful of seats which the Tories could easily have lost in 1997 (with 40%), but the LDs and Labour were then almost equal-second. In recent elections (post-coalition) it has trended to Labour, as their vote is up 6% since GE2015 (compared to +2% in GB vote) while the Tories are up 4% (compared to +8% for GB). I'd tentatively suggest that the areas bordering Norwich may have become more promising for Labour. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Norfolk_(UK_Parliament_constituency)www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labourI suspect that in reality Great yarmouth is more likely to fall to Labour given its longer ter electoral history.The combined effect of Corbyn and Brexit was to push the seat very heavily away from Labour p and I would now expect both effects to unwind with an above average pro- Labour swing. Waveney could be expected to show a similar 'swingback'. Labour last won South Norfolk in 1945 when the demographics were much more favourable. The LibDems have periodically been strong there in local elections. Given Labour's recent outperformance there, I rather expect a below average swing next time.
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Post by leftieliberal on Mar 26, 2023 19:24:04 GMT
Thank you very much indeed for the link about the Husler method, Leftie! Frederick Husler isn't well known over here in the UK; he also has a fascinating back-story: www.cursa-ur.com/husler.htmlApart from Peter Harrison, there is also Joy Mammen who taught Lesley Garrett. My late wife studied with Doreen Millman, one of Peter Harrison's students, after she had got a secure technigue from Andy Field and Doreen refined her voice and improved her diction. This is one thing you notice with Husler-trained singers, even when they are singing at full volume they don't lose their diction. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Mar 26, 2023 19:31:31 GMT
Extracts from a Mathew Goodwin article about his new book :-Values, Voice and Virtue: The New British Politics. "Britain is on the cusp of a “progressive” revolution that will transform politics and society." " This progressive tide, steadily building for a decade, is poised to usher in a different political and cultural zeitgeist." "It is being propelled by three specific groups." "The first is the rising number of middle-class professional graduates, the big winners of John Major’s and Tony Blair’s expansion of the universities.Shaped by their degrees and far more liberal values, Britain’s graduate class are increasingly trending leftwards, reflecting the rise of a new “education divide” in the West, where the graduate minority is steadily drifting away from the non-graduate majority.Were only degree-holders able to vote in 2017, Jeremy Corbyn would have been elected prime minister. This is why parties on the liberal left, not just Labour but also the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, dominate almost all the big cities and university towns, and are invading the southern, graduate-heavy commuter belt where professionals are spilling from the capital." "The second is Britain’s young Millennials and even younger Zoomers, born after 1996, who may only remember Conservative governments. They too are flooding into the electorate. Before the rise of Blair there was no real difference in the political loyalties of young and old. But since then, the gulf between them has become enormous. At the last election, nearly eight in ten of the youngest voters backed the liberal left. Now not even one in five say they plan to vote Tory next year." "The final group is the rapidly rising number of voters from minority backgrounds, more than three-quarters of whom vote for the liberal left, with the vast majority voting Labour. At the last election, the Tories had a 20-point lead over Labour among white Britons, but among black and ethnic minority voters Labour had more than a 40-point lead. Of the 50 seats with the largest number of Muslims, the Tories won three." But Goodwin doesn't ask where Tory votes are coming from-he asks :- "But will the progressive tide automatically translate into large Labour majorities? Not necessarily. While these groups will increasingly dominate Britain’s institutions, using their immense cultural and political power to reshape Westminster, the media and cultural and educational institutions, the progressive tide will also inject new problems into politics." "One is geography. All the groups propelling it forward live in the same parts of the country, in the big cities and university towns." "This is underlined by a second problem: how the progressive tide is already driving a wedge between the liberal graduates who dominate the institutions and the much larger number of voters who have to live with the consequences of their decisions.Over the past decade, in response to Brexit and Trump, the graduate class have intensified their liberalism, embracing an even more radical “woke” progressivism, a belief system which I estimate is held by 15 per cent of the country. This “Great Awokening” among white liberal graduates, visible in America and Britain, is reflected in their increasingly passionate support for both legal and illegal immigration, their tendency to see Britain’s history as overwhelmingly negative, and their firm belief that western nations are “institutionally racist”. These beliefs are understandable, but they are not shared by anywhere close to a majority of voters, and are often repelling them, setting the stage for a new populist backlash, like we see in France, Italy and Sweden." He concludes with a rather unsatisfactory :"So while the looming progressive tide may be celebrated by the left, in reality it will be more complex than many think, possibly pushing politics into an even more turbulent future." What does he mean by "Turbulent" ??. - France writ large ? If i understood him he means the "opposition" to his liberal tide is more, not less Trumpism. So where does that leave Sunak's brand of Conservatism ? This is a classic Goodwin piece. First, the use of language such as "dominate", "invading","looming" to describe social changes he disapproves of and that these changes " inject problems" into politics (which would presumably otherwise continue untroubled in a way he approves of) Second,the crude typology so that, for example, society is divided between a a "liberal left", "liberal elite" and an undefined large group who disagree with them. Third, the crude unevidenced assertion about belief and motive. For example, the assertion that the "liberal elite" (whatever that might be) passionately supports legal and illegal immigration and so on. And he somewhere conjures out of the air his personal estimate that undefined "radical, woke progressivism" is a view held by 15% of the population. Fourth, the lack of counter arguments especially any recognition of the push back by right wing politicians and groups against existing rights. But Goodwin's grift has to continue. So disappointed that his looked for populist triumph after Brexit never materialised he now predicts another populist backlash. The one certainty is that Goodwin will create a market for his output. What especially annoys me about this ‘countryside invaded by young liberals from London’ narrative is that I know from experience that these people are often very willing to get involved in and give something to their new communities. They’ll join parish councils that had become moribund, where previously no-one could be found willing to replace members at the end of their tenure, they’ll get involved in community events, bring their children to community litter picking sprees etc while the established inhabitants who most likely wring their hands about the newcomers and their ‘wokeism’ often do nothing except occasionally stick a union flag in their garden. Well that’s very helpful I must say. |
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Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Mar 26, 2023 19:31:53 GMT
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