26-Nov 2022 : LAB: 50% / CON: 27% / LDEM: 9% / GRN: 4%

[steve]

jib
But there's no cure for stupidity it has nothing to do with political beliefs.
Your decision diminished the life chances of an entire generation of young people that's an inconvenient truth, rights and opportunities that you enjoyed but assisted in denying them.

Like most aged brexitanians you simply don't give a rats about anyone else who doesn't share your obsession.

Are you sure you're not a tory?

[jib]

Mar 21, 2023 22:50:08 GMT steve said:

jib
But there's no cure for stupidity it has nothing to do with political beliefs.
You're decision diminished the life chances of an entire generation of young people that's an inconvenient truth, rights and opportunities that you enjoyed but assisted in denying them.

Like most aged brexitanians you simply don't give a rats about anyone else who doesn't share your obsession.

Are you sure you're not a tory?

I know there's no cure for stupidity, most of your posting efforts illustrate that one.
I'm considerably younger than you, a few more years before I get my pension I can assure you!
Tory? You're the Yellow Tory, canvassing for a former Minister in a Tory Government. Don't try and deflect that shame on me.

[pjw1961]

steve, jib - you might find this useful:

www.geriwalton.com/pistol-dueling-its-etiquette-and-rules/#:~:text=The%20combatants%20were%20to%20present,the%20duel%20was%20declared%20over.

[steve]

pjw1961

I suspect jib would want to steal the other pistol, because sovereignty!

[somerjohn]

I had an interesting insight yesterday into the cause of frontier delays for Brits returning from the EU to UK.

Catching the Eurostar at Brussels, it took around 60 minutes to get through ticket checks, baggage security checks, Belgian passport control and UK passport control. Of those, the Schengen exit checks were clearly the main bottleneck. And while the computerised passport check took a minute or two, what really held things up was the time it took for the official to find the latest Schengen entry stamp. I watched as the guy thumbed back and forth through my heavily stamped passport, and tried to help by saying "I entered through Napoli"

"You live in Napoli?" he said. "No, that's my entry stamp." With that, he finally found it and squeezed in the exit stamp next to it.

Brexiteers will no doubt find this delay and proceduralism trivial, but when you're standing in a long, slow moving queue and wondering if you're going to make the train, it just seems so damned stupid, unnecessary and antiquated. Especially when you've just travelled seamlessly from Rome by train.

Back to the future with brexit.

[Deleted]

Mar 21, 2023 22:57:53 GMT pjw1961 said:

steve, jib - you might find this useful:

www.geriwalton.com/pistol-dueling-its-etiquette-and-rules/#:~:text=The%20combatants%20were%20to%20present,the%20duel%20was%20declared%20over.

Reminds me of the old duelling joke where the protagonists were offered the choice of swords or pistols. The first one piped up "He can have the sword, I'll have the pistol".

[oldnat]

Mar 21, 2023 23:58:47 GMT @isa said:

Mar 21, 2023 22:57:53 GMT pjw1961 said:

steve, jib - you might find this useful:

www.geriwalton.com/pistol-dueling-its-etiquette-and-rules/#:~:text=The%20combatants%20were%20to%20present,the%20duel%20was%20declared%20over.

Reminds me of the old duelling joke where the protagonists were offered the choice of swords or pistols. The first one piped up "He can have the sword, I'll have the pistol".

And the second one says, "That's fine. You didn't ask for any bullets for the pistol".

[moby]

Mar 21, 2023 15:25:02 GMT davwel said:

Old Nat helpfully suggested that creating a big person-centred database, could be tried in Wales rather than Scotalnd since its size would be less, though I suspected he also wanted to draw attention to Labour not managing the Welsh NHS well (his view; I simply do not know).

It is a common trope by the Tories and their enablers that Labour is failing to manage the NHS in Wales. It's an easy argument to make, you say there is like for like proportional funding based on numbers through the Barnett formula and then add..... look their waiting lists are longer than ours; watch the Tories use this line at PMQs every time the NHS is the subject. Of course this is simplistic politicking because the reality is Wales has a different population profile to large parts of England. There is a proportionally larger population of over 65s living in Wales with more complex, costly health needs. Due to this fact the need for greater social care funding reduces funding available for elective surgery. This article is old now but it suggests Wales would receive £183 more per patient under a needs based formula:-

www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/nhs-wales-badly-run-by-labour-or-underfunded-by-westminster

[steve]

Modest falls in the rate of inflation can be seen throughout the European union.

Meanwhile in brexitania

UK inflation unexpectedly jumped up in February to close to its highest level in 40 years amid ongoing pressure on households and businesses in the cost of living crisis.

The Office for National Statistics said annual inflation as measured by the consumer prices index stood at 10.4% up from 10.1% confounding City forecasts for a modest fall to 9.9%.

[steve]

@isa
I would worry about a low blow the only way I could be defeeted.

Mind you jib could bring his crayons then he could draw his weapon.

[alec]

For those interested, I posted last night on the covid thread, with a couple of fascinating papers. One detailed how top flight Italian football players were much more likely to suffer muscle injuries after a covid infection, which is fascinating, and explains why highly paid footballers are now being protected as far as possible from infection. The second was a 2012 paper which claims to have identified why so many young people died from Spanish flu. The research found that a prior, not very severe flu strain, disrupted the T cell immune response in such a way that when these people contracted Spanish flu they suffered an uncontrolled and catastrophic immune reaction which killed them.

The idea that constant viral infections are good for us and 'strengthen our immune systems' was always bogus. Just be aware that by constantly catching covid, you are likely to be establishing the conditions whereby you become catastrophically vulnerable to future 'harmless' infections. Separately, the formerly dismissed and disregarded hypothesis that covid damages the immune system has been proven now with multiple studies, with all grades of covid infection shown to disrupt the immune system, even asymptomatic infection. The depth, duration and effects of that damage remains a subject of fierce debate, but this historical research suggests caution would be a more sensible approach than closing our eyes and ears and letting it rip.

[Danny]

R4 just did a piece about an upcoming program on kids who have disappeared from schools post covid. Not just those who have dropped out of the system as I initially thought, but also the much higher absence when supposedly attending.

Unlike alec, they do not put this down to covid. They did mention mental health issues, and they did mention special needs kids being particularly affected. But they also mentioned patterns in the absence like being missing on fridays, and it affecting most those in deprived groups. They mentioned higher absences amongst gypsies.

Only heard the trailer, but the bottom line seems to be that lockdown and closing schools has created a culture of not attending.

[Danny]

Mar 21, 2023 22:43:03 GMT jib said:

No I won't save my "sanctimonious bollocks" from you.
You need to learn to appreciate, together with a few others on here, that people have their own political belief structures.
I'm sure there's a cream for your geriatric afflictions by the way.

And you need to appreciate that the political beliefs structure in the UK wants to rejoin the EU to restore all these rights, so you need to get onboard with rejoining as fast as possible.

[Mr Poppy]

Well I suppose he can't use the excuse of being out the country (ala Heathrow) but I'm still surprised that the 'opportunist seeking an opportunity' thinks the WF will be a launch pad for his dreams of a 'come back'

Boris Johnson set to vote against Rishi Sunak’s Brexit deal
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rishi-sunak-brexit-deal-boris-johsonon-b2305618.html

He'll likely get some of the Boris fan club to vote with him so we will at least get to see how many CON MPs are in that faction and can't 'read the room'. Not that many IMO - certainly nowhere near enough to push for a confidence vote in Rishi later this year (assuming Boris is still there later this year - which the more press worthy event of the day will play a large part). 

[Danny]

Mar 22, 2023 7:12:27 GMT steve said:

Modest falls in the rate of inflation can be seen throughout the European union. Meanwhile in brexitania UK inflation unexpectedly jumped up in February to close to its highest level in 40 years amid ongoing pressure on households and businesses in the cost of living crisis. The Office for National Statistics said annual inflation as measured by the consumer prices index stood at 10.4% up from 10.1% confounding City forecasts for a modest fall to 9.9%.

It was interesting listening to debate about the US fed upcoming decision on interest rates. They had been on a declared path upwards. The problem...this has caused US banks to crash. And if a bank was heavily invested in US bonds, then presumably why is obvious, because the interest rates on new bonds has gone from maybe 0.4% to 4%, or a 900% increase. Which presumably very sharply changed the value of existing lower rate ones downwards. The question then is what is the state of US banks, would further rises push more over the edge? What effect is this bank collapse having on the economy, the idea of higher interest is to discourage people from borrowing so there is less demand for goods. But if banks are verging on bust they also will stop lending as a completely different effect. So the result of lower demand may be created by destroying the economy rather than making future loans less affordable. The process also being very uncontrollable and irreversible. One commentator described what has happened in the US as an enormous mistake.

Uk interest rates have of course only risen because they were tracking US rates. So once again the US has led the world into a financial crisis. Just as brexiteers want us to become more international and open to US control.

[hireton]

Interesting poll on the day of the vote on the SI concerning the Windsor Framework:

[Danny]

Mar 22, 2023 7:26:03 GMT alec said:

The idea that constant viral infections are good for us and 'strengthen our immune systems' was always bogus.

I think doctors would all agree that being ill is a bad thing. People always die in epidemics, not good for them. However, the silver lining is unquestionably that most people build up immunity which protects them in the future. This is true for covid, flu, measles. Will there be body damage during infections? yes. The way our immune system works is by destroying infected cells, thats assuming the infection itself didnt incapacitate them. But it needs to be stressed, thats how it is designed to work, we have an awful lot of cells and create new ones very quickly.

And there is no alternative. We had no way to prevent covid spreading round the world, we tried. We have no way to prevent it continuing to do so. Keeping it out is not possible, and is not desireable because we do become immune and able to control it without any medical intervention.

Just be aware that by constantly catching covid, you are likely to be establishing the conditions whereby you become catastrophically vulnerable to future 'harmless' infections.

You keep making this sneakily incorrect argument. Sure, some people will end up with permanent harm which will have a future impact. But for the great majority this is negligible. As maybe carfrew pointed up recently, fair enough to study exactly what is happening, but thats completely different to claiming this is a major health problem. It simply isnt.

...but this historical research suggests caution would be a more sensible approach than closing our eyes and ears and letting it rip.

No, it absolutely does not. If we started over on this epidemic armed with all the information we have now there would be no lockdown. Schools would not be closed. We would go the Sweden route, but with added emphasis on protecting the old and espeically those in care homes and similarly very high risk elsewhere. Long term we would have redesigned hospitals to reduce internal spread of all diseases, since hospitals too were a huge source of new dangerous cases (because people in hospital are already sick and vulnerable to new infections), and in fact the NHS was already doing this.

We would have known there was no need for lockdown because it would never exceed our medical capacity to manage it. we could not have justified the cost of the lockdowns because of the far lower scale of covid harm than what was assumed in spring 2020.

[alec]

Danny - Yup. The item on education strangely didn't mention that the rise in child sickness in 2022 was the biggest single reason by some margin behind the rise in school absences, but oddly did mention that Gypsies might be part of the problem.

BBC R4 also just did a piece on why countries all round the world have seen increased demand on health services in 2022. Once again, it was (like, doh!, obviously) absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with a disease that is known to create long term increases in healthcare demands and which is infecting everyone a couple of times a year.

The BBC is awful on this, other media outlets bad, but not quite so dreadful. It's Anything But Covid, or, as doctors describe it, 'abcitis'. It causes painful swelling and dysregulation of the gullibility glands. Once infected, you'll believe anything.

Everywhere you look, in every country, we have higher rates of school sick absence, workplace short term sick leave, long term incapacity to work, and economic institutions the world over quietly warning that constant covid infection is damaging economic efficiency.

But hey - let's blame the Gyppos!

[Mr Poppy]

In other 'expected' news then instead of being accused of punching soon to be pensioners then Hunt has decided to kick the can..

"Rise in state pension age put on hold – report"
www.standard.co.uk/business/money/rise-in-state-pension-age-put-on-hold-report-b1069023.html

Current plan stays for now:
1/ State Pension age is gradually increasing for men and women, and will reach 67 by 2028
2/ For the now capped tax-free lump sum and minimum age for DC schemes: "The government has confirmed plans to increase the minimum age you can access your pension from 55 – to 57 from 2028. From then on, the minimum pension age will remain ten years below State Pension age"
(slightly different for DB schemes or in special circumstances)
www.moneyhelper.org.uk/en/pensions-and-retirement/taking-your-pension/when-can-i-take-money-from-my-pension

IMO #2 would have been a good idea with excellent timing, given the scrapping of the LifeTime Allowance (LTA) and jump in annual allowance. A bung (carrot) to keep working with a stick to reduce the incentive for said workers to load their pension and retire as early as they can. 

Hence another missed opportunity given that people like certainty and Pensions will likely now drop out of salience - for politicians and gen.pub 
(any further discussion perhaps back to the Issue Specific thread?)

[Danny]

Mar 22, 2023 8:30:29 GMT alec said:

Danny - Yup. The item on education strangely didn't mention that the rise in child sickness in 2022 was the biggest single reason by some margin behind the rise in school absences, but oddly did mention that Gypsies might be part of the problem.

no doubt the full program will explain more, but they did mention the surge in friday absences, without diferentiating whether that is illnes or unexplained. Funny there is a surge of illness only on Fridays. Its obvious that parents will call in their kids as sick when they arent if it gets authorities off their back.

BBC R4 also just did a piece on why countries all round the world have seen increased demand on health services in 2022. Once again, it was (like, doh!, obviously) absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with a disease that is known to create long term increases in healthcare demands and which is infecting everyone a couple of times a year.

But there is no evidence demonstrating any such effects are significant in number. Thats the point you refuse to address.

By contrast its perfectly possible surges reported eg in cardiovascular deaths are simply because people have not been seeking medical advice so quickly, so these diseases have become serious whereas before everyone locked down because of covid, they would have visited a doctor sooner. It sounds exactly the same effect as kids playing truant, we established a pattern of not going to school and established a pattern of not going to the doctor.

But dont worry...demand will take care of itself. The number of people seeking medical services depends on how many old people there are. If more die off then demand will fall back.

[somerjohn]

The increase in UK inflation to 10.4% in February suggests a worrying gap is opening between inflation rates in the UK and the rest of Europe, with Eurozone inflation having fallen to 8.5% in February. An indicator of the effect of having a more closed economy, with pricing less constrained by competitive pressures than in the Single Market, perhaps.

Commentators have rushed to say that it's a blip, and inflation will drop in March because of base effects, as the big Ukraine-induced rise in March '22 drops out of the comparison.

But I wonder what the effect in April will be from the loss of the £67 monthly payment towards energy bills. My last energy bill was £228, less £67, so a net cost of £161. The same energy use in March, billed in April, will cost the full £228, a jump of 41.6%. surely that alone will keep inflation pumped up?

[domjg]

Mar 22, 2023 7:26:03 GMT alec said:

For those interested, I posted last night on the covid thread, with a couple of fascinating papers. One detailed how top flight Italian football players were much more likely to suffer muscle injuries after a covid infection, which is fascinating, and explains why highly paid footballers are now being protected as far as possible from infection. The second was a 2012 paper which claims to have identified why so many young people died from Spanish flu. The research found that a prior, not very severe flu strain, disrupted the T cell immune response in such a way that when these people contracted Spanish flu they suffered an uncontrolled and catastrophic immune reaction which killed them.

The idea that constant viral infections are good for us and 'strengthen our immune systems' was always bogus. Just be aware that by constantly catching covid, you are likely to be establishing the conditions whereby you become catastrophically vulnerable to future 'harmless' infections. Separately, the formerly dismissed and disregarded hypothesis that covid damages the immune system has been proven now with multiple studies, with all grades of covid infection shown to disrupt the immune system, even asymptomatic infection. The depth, duration and effects of that damage remains a subject of fierce debate, but this historical research suggests caution would be a more sensible approach than closing our eyes and ears and letting it rip.

alec You haven't done any stuff on Ukraine in a long time. Miss the non-covid related observations.

[Danny]

Mar 22, 2023 8:32:47 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Current plan stays for now:
1/ State Pension age is gradually increasing for men and women, and will reach 67 by 2028
2/ For the now capped tax-free lump sum and minimum age for DC schemes: "The government has confirmed plans to increase the minimum age you can access your pension from 55 – to 57 from 2028. From then on, the minimum pension age will remain ten years below State Pension age"

Notice that pension plans are a government sponsored trap trying to prevent people retiring more than ten years early. So if you want to retire at 50, you need to make alternative arrangements to fund that before government sponsored schemes kick in.

IMO #2 would have been a good idea with excellent timing, given the scrapping of the LifeTime Allowance (LTA) and jump in annual allowance. A bung (carrot) to keep working with a stick to reduce the incentive for said workers to load their pension and retire as early as they can. 

I have no idea why the state is subsidising pensions for those with more than a million pounds spare. I could live on that for the rest of my life in comfort with no tax breaks at all. And i totally dont understand how overall giving someone free additions to their pension fund means they dont retire earlier, not later.

[barbara]

@danny can you please move your posts to the health thread. You are really putting people off from reading and posting on here as it takes an age to scroll past pages of you - and less frequently now but still there - alec going backwards and forwards on this.

Please.

[domjg]

Mar 22, 2023 6:23:43 GMT moby said:

Mar 21, 2023 15:25:02 GMT davwel said:

Old Nat helpfully suggested that creating a big person-centred database, could be tried in Wales rather than Scotalnd since its size would be less, though I suspected he also wanted to draw attention to Labour not managing the Welsh NHS well (his view; I simply do not know).

It is a common trope by the Tories and their enablers that Labour is failing to manage the NHS in Wales. It's an easy argument to make, you say there is like for like proportional funding based on numbers through the Barnett formula and then add..... look their waiting lists are longer than ours; watch the Tories use this line at PMQs every time the NHS is the subject. Of course this is simplistic politicking because the reality is Wales has a different population profile to large parts of England. There is a proportionally larger population of over 65s living in Wales with more complex, costly health needs. Due to this fact the need for greater social care funding reduces funding available for elective surgery. This article is old now but it suggests Wales would receive £183 more per patient under a needs based formula:-

www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/nhs-wales-badly-run-by-labour-or-underfunded-by-westminster

And the BBC. There've been many occasions during the recent NHS crises where there's been barely a mention of them on the main BBC news page but go to the Wales or Scotland pages and health care system problems/dysfunction was the main headline with it being spelt out that these were the responsibility of the devolved administrations. Very transparent but no less enraging for that.. 

[pjw1961]

Mar 22, 2023 8:52:30 GMT Danny said:

Mar 22, 2023 8:32:47 GMT Mr Poppy said:

I have no idea why the state is subsidising pensions for those with more than a million pounds spare. I could live on that for the rest of my life in comfort with no tax breaks at all. And i totally dont understand how overall giving someone free additions to their pension fund means they dont retire earlier, not later.

That one is easily explained - Government by the wealthy of the poorer for the wealthy. The mystery is why so many of the poorer keep voting to be shafted. 

Incidentally, my previous explanation of the pension impact on hospital consultants related to the issue of getting them to work extra hours. I don't think it will have any impact on when they choose to retire, which tends to be influenced by a variety of other factors personal to them.

[alec]

domjg - oddly enough, I did post a Ukraine related item recently. That topic is obviously more static now and less new information comes through to post, but I will bear your comment in mind.

barbara - re covid, apols, but I am trying to post over on the covid thread, with signposts here. However, the new issue of denialism is, I feel, worthy of fuller examination and merits more attention than a tumbleweed old thread. Danny does tend to bring his answers back to this thread though, and they are pretty tortuous.

[superted]

Liz Truss and Priti Patel to join Johnson in voting against the WF this afternoon.

[alec]

Changing tack, the inflation data is worrying. The underlying rate is up, to 6.2%, which is more concerning, as this strips out food and energy costs. There seems to have been a big jump in service sector prices, and I suspect this might tip the BoE to increase rates again tomorrow.

On top of that, it has emerged that Hunt quietly slipped a rather punitive change to benefits into the budget last week. It has emerged that parents on benefits will now face sanctions if they don't make themselves available for 30 hours a week of paid work, once their child reaches the age of three. Formerly the limit was 16 hours. Loss of benefits ensues if you don't make yourself sufficiently available.

This is a really big change. It's forcing parents, predominantly women, into more or less full time work with very young children. Unlikely to be very popular, alongside the tax giveaway to the very wealthy pension savers.

Also noteworthy are the reports that Hunt is to scrap or delay the next rise in stage pension age to 68. It's being reported that this is due to significant falls in life expectancy. [Can't think why that would be. Must be acute abcitis again...]. It's not good that people are living shorter lives, although at last we have some recognition of this by the government. However, the reason seems to be fear of upsetting voters by stretching their working lives while the rich get the pension tax concession, so I would guess that if they got re-elected, the rise would be back on the cards once again.

[neilj]

Tory MPs who have already said they will vote against Sunaks deal, it will only grow, maybe embarrassing for Sunak if he has to rely on opposition votes to get his measure through
Edit plus Mark Francois