26-Nov 2022 : LAB: 50% / CON: 27% / LDEM: 9% / GRN: 4%

[Mr Poppy]

Dec 1, 2022 9:30:04 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

... Another feature in which it reflects the broader political landscape is the relative coherence/unity of the ROC compared to a more fragmented LOC - you very rarely see ROC on ROC action, but by contrast it's nearly a daily occurrence in relation to the LOC.

So you haven't spotted any "ROC on ROC action" in places like HoC then? Or Farage popping his head back up?

Folks notice the absolute and relative "coherence/unity" of the major parties in Real World

Is the Conservative Party united or divided?

Divided: 74%
United: 9%
Net divided: 65%

yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/is-the-conservative-party-united-or-divided

I appreciate LAB aren't the only LOC gig in town but just FWIW then they are seen as a lot more united now at 44% (net 20%) united:
yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/is-the-labour-party-united-or-divided

Another example perhaps of how UKPR2a is nothing like the Real World - although colin and I have had our disagreements in the past, the whole concept of needing to put everyone in a one-dimensional divisive box of 'LOC' v 'ROC' is a bit daft IMO. I have no issue being put in the 'ROC' box, if people feel the need to segregate people into either/or categories, but there are multiple dimensions so some folks might be 'Centre-Left' on Economic issues but 'Right' on Social issues but still split on the 'National' issues, Environment, Housing, etc...

Electoral Calculus picks "Three-D Politics" for their "Seven Tribes"
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pol3d_main.html

Under Corbyn then LAB were visibly not United and folks noticed that (see LAB tracker which goes back to 'pre-Starmer' days). Discipline within CON broke down into the Owen (Patterson) goal and Partygate, got worse through the Summer leadership election and has barely recovered under Rishi. CON MPs are behaving like 'rats in the sack' with extremely low levels of "coherence/unity of the ROC" on a wide variety of issues

PS EC's even "seven tribes" are simplistic and not supposed to be totally separate 'boxes'. I certainly wouldn't fit perfectly into any of their 'tribes' myself but I do understand why the feel the need to assign tribes to use in their prediction model.

[jayblanc]

Survey news, this one not exactly the normal kind, but one on the specific result of a policy. Drivers surveyed by the RAC overwhelmingly say they don't drive on the left most lanes on "Smart Motorways" because they don't consider themselves safe. Yet another very expensive flagship Conservative Party Policy that hit the rocks of reality. How much will it cost to undo "Smart Motorways", or will they be left as a dangerous white elephant. Surely Government won't double down and keep converting motorways to "Smart Motorways"... Oh, well, maybe the next government might do something to change lane.

www.itv.com/news/meridian/2022-12-01/survey-says-benefits-of-smart-motorways-wasted-as-drivers-avoid-extra-lane

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Dec 1, 2022 10:34:39 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Dec 1, 2022 9:30:04 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

So you haven't spotted any "ROC on ROC action" in places like HoC then? Or Farage popping his head back up?

Folks notice the absolute and relative "coherence/unity" of the major parties in Real World

Hi @lexiteer - please note my emphasis is very much on the 'relative', and in terms of daily occurrence I was referring to the board. The lefts tendency to break into factionalism etc is very well documented and commented upon:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=iS-0Az7dgRY



 

[hireton]

Latest YouGov Westminster VI:

Interesting uptick in Reform UK VI.

[ladyvalerie]

Nov 30, 2022 22:05:01 GMT mercian said:

Nov 30, 2022 21:25:46 GMT @sotonsaint said:

Old posh people are racist shock..

(Still, it allows BBC News to put a white person's face on the main page of its website for a change).

I wonder if this is a bit of a misunderstanding - the old upper-class idea that where your 'people' are from is what matters - i.e. where is your family's country estate?

e.g. "Yes, yes, I know you were born in London, Crispin, and are working as an interior designer, but where are you FROM? Are you one of the Leicestershire Cholmondeleys?"  

EDIT: It's almost exactly what I thought. Here's a quote from The Sun
"She said she was horrified when Lady Susan approached her, moved her hair to see her name badge and asked: "Where do your people come from?""

So a bit insensitive in the modern world, but not at all malicious or racist.

Probably the old-girl was half-cut, too many G & Ts, and had forgotten to switch her hearing-aid on.

In the retirement development where I live, it happens all the time 😀

About time she was put out to grass

[steve]

London School of Economics, today - “We find that leaving the European Union increased the price of food products by 3% a year, leading to a 6% increase over a two-year period”

Let's see now...
Jacob Rees-Mogg MP, 2016 - "The price of food will go down."

Daniel Hannan MEP, 2016 - "We can show with quantifiable, empirical data how food bills will be lower."

Douglas Carswell MP, 2016 - “Our food bills will be lower.”

and
Daily Excuse 22 July 2017 - Brexit will REDUCE food, wine and clothes costs by 20% - Rees-Mogg fires back at Remainers

How's that working out, you self-satisfied self-serving fraudulent charlatans?

I think they might have been lying!

[crossbat11]

Dec 1, 2022 10:56:58 GMT hireton said:

Latest YouGov Westminster VI:

Interesting uptick in Reform UK VI.

Seemingly at the expense of the Tories too. I'm still having to pinch myself at these Tory VI figures, let alone Labour's. 22% in a YouGov poll? My flabber is getting continually gasted!

[Mr Poppy]

Dec 1, 2022 10:56:54 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Dec 1, 2022 10:34:39 GMT Mr Poppy said:

So you haven't spotted any "ROC on ROC action" in places like HoC then? Or Farage popping his head back up?

Folks notice the absolute and relative "coherence/unity" of the major parties in Real World

Hi @lexiteer - please note my emphasis is very much on the 'relative', and in terms of daily occurrence I was referring to the board. The lefts tendency to break into factionalism etc is very well documented and commented upon:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=iS-0Az7dgRY
 

Apologies I thought you were talking about the present, not the past.

Discipline and unity amongst CON has had its moments (eg the Maastricht rebels, Brexit, current issues) but a successful leader (of any party) is able to unite their party and appeal to a broad coalition of voters. It also requires the 'troops' (MPs) to feel they are united and some issues are highly divisive (eg the NIMBYism issue is a real problem for CON MPs due to split loyalty to 'local constituents' v 'country') 

It is perhaps easier to appear united when in opposition and having a common enemy is often a 'lightening rod' for unity. Harder when in govt when you have to get stuff done (and despite his huge majorities then Tory Blair had a few 'discipline' issues - notably the TB-GBees). As mentioned earlier then LAB aren't the only LOC gig in town but I'm not going to put LDEM or anyone else in a box (OK, SNP are probably considered LOC on most issues and their VI would probably agree with that). 

Not sure why folks on UKPR continue to try to claim UKPR2a is reflective of the Real World when we're such a tiny sample of opinion. We have polling info available and 'who cares' if some LOCs on UKPR2a want to fight with other LOCs on UKPR2a over some issues. Perhaps given some ROCs no longer waste their time engaging with the most argumentative LOCs then the LOCs have decided to pick fights with each other - but 'who cares' about that?

[mandolinist]

Dec 1, 2022 11:08:18 GMT crossbat11 said:

Dec 1, 2022 10:56:58 GMT hireton said:

Latest YouGov Westminster VI:

Interesting uptick in Reform UK VI.

Seemingly at the expense of the Tories too. I'm still having to pinch myself at these Tory VI figures, let alone Labour's. 22% in a YouGov poll? My flabber is getting continually gasted!

Isn't part of the reason for the rise in Reform UK the dog whistle stuff about immigration? When you blow the whistle you have to hope your party will be the beneficiaries. The Tories are widely seen to have failed by their own supporters on their own terms and yet keep raising the spectre, so those people for whom this is the defining issue have moved . . .to Reform. There is a very important message there for Labour too, it may be best to stay away from this issue and concentrate on the stuff the electorate a. cares most about and b. trusts you to handle effectively.

[Mr Poppy]

CON'19 'loyalty' drops further in the latest YG, with RUK* rearing their head and overtaking LAB for CON'19 defections to a different party - almost certainly due to Immigration.

CON'19 x-break (change on the week)
CON: 36% (-8)
DK: 26% (+3)
RUK: 15% (+6)
LAB: 12% (uc)
WNV: 4% (-2)
LDEM: 3% (uc)

docs.cdn.yougov.com/eyyy9mimz1/TheTimes_VI_221130_W.pdf

CON are literally losing VI left, right and centre at the moment (well maybe not centre given negligible switch to LDEM. CON are actually getting 7% of LDEM'19 votes in the latest YG but it's a small x-break so higher MoE)

As per mercian comment y'day then City of Chester by-election will be interesting to see how split the 'ROC' vote is. Braverman needs to 'Get on with it'. Having raised salience to the system being 'broken' then she needs to be seen to fix it - otherwise for those who rate immigration as an important issue (lots of CON'19) then RUK will happily scoop up those votes with a far stricter view on immigration (a path we've seen other countries in Europe go down and one I hope UK avoids - FPTP will help ensure we don't go down that path) 

[jib]

Another post from the eternally optimistic steve about poor little UK cut off from the world and everything going to pot.

I decided to do some fact checking......

Attachment Deleted


Headline food inflation: UK 16.2%, EU 17.3%

Inconvenient.

Source: tradingeconomics.com/

[crossbat11]

mandolinist

The Reform uptick may just be an individual poll oddity, not to be reflected in others, but if this YouGov has picked up "something going on out there", I suspect it may be hard Leave Tory voters suspecting some Brexit backsliding afoot. Sunak has repudiated Hunt on it, but when a CoE talks about Swiss style relationships with the EU, some frightened Tory horses may trot back to Farage. No stampede, and these may well be fairly far right voters inevitably returning home, but a rejuvenated Reform can only add further worry beads to already furrowed Tory Party brows.

One to keep an eye on. Chester may provide some proof to the pudding.

[Mr Poppy]

Dec 1, 2022 11:55:11 GMT jib said:

Headline food inflation: UK 16.2%, EU 17.3%

Inconvenient.

Source: tradingeconomics.com/

I pointed that out to pjw1961 a few days ago. I don't read Steve Bray's twitter rants but let me guess, he's been reading the Guardian again? Are Arch-Remainiac folks really so blissfully unaware of newspaper bias and too lazy to check sources for themselves? (rhetorical question)

Full link that folks will need to check for themselves: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/food-inflation

[Dave]

Dec 1, 2022 10:56:58 GMT hireton said:

Latest YouGov Westminster VI:

Interesting uptick in Reform UK VI.

This will bring Mercian to life    (that's just for you M).  

[oldnat]

Dec 1, 2022 6:59:51 GMT moby said:

Nov 30, 2022 22:05:01 GMT mercian said:

I wonder if this is a bit of a misunderstanding - the old upper-class idea that where your 'people' are from is what matters - i.e. where is your family's country estate?

e.g. "Yes, yes, I know you were born in London, Crispin, and are working as an interior designer, but where are you FROM? Are you one of the Leicestershire Cholmondeleys?"  

EDIT: It's almost exactly what I thought. Here's a quote from The Sun
"She said she was horrified when Lady Susan approached her, moved her hair to see her name badge and asked: "Where do your people come from?""

So a bit insensitive in the modern world, but not at all malicious or racist.

Here's the full exchange. Quite shocking and totally unacceptable imo:-


Fulani wrote on Twitter: “Mixed feelings about yesterday’s visit to Buckingham Palace. 10 mins after arriving, a member of staff, Lady SH, approached me, moved my hair to see my name badge. The conversation below took place. The rest of the event is a blur.”

She then described the conversation:

Lady SH: Where are you from?

Me: Sistah Space.

SH: No, where do you come from?

Me: We’re based in Hackney.

SH: No, what part of Africa are YOU from?

Me: I don’t know, they didn’t leave any records.

SH: Well, you must know where you’re from, I spent time in France. Where are you from?

Me: Here, UK

SH: NO, but what Nationality are you?

Me: I am born here and am British.

SH: No, but where do you really come from, where do your people come from?

Me: ‘My people’, lady, what is this?

SH: Oh I can see I am going to have a challenge getting you to say where you’re from. When did you first come here?

Me: Lady! I am a British national, my parents came here in the 50s when …

SH: Oh, I knew we’d get there in the end, you’re Caribbean!

Me: No Lady, I am of African heritage, Caribbean descent and British nationality.

SH: Oh, so you’re from 

I saw this pathetic excuse on twitter. The racist woman is only 6 years older than me, and I don't know anyone in that age group who would be as apalling as that.

(Not that I would particularly want to challenge any assertion that we oldies on this board might be gaga as well).

[jayblanc]

Dec 1, 2022 12:05:34 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Dec 1, 2022 11:55:11 GMT jib said:

Headline food inflation: UK 16.2%, EU 17.3%

Inconvenient.

Source: tradingeconomics.com/

I pointed that out to pjw1961 a few days ago. I don't read Steve Bray's twitter rants but let me guess, he's been reading the Guardian again? Are Arch-Remainiac folks really so blissfully unaware of newspaper bias and too lazy to check sources for themselves? (rhetorical question)

Full link that folks will need to check for themselves: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/food-inflation

I'd have to point out that the Europe area figure includes countries who's direct trade lanes have been closed due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, leading to food inflation figures around 30% in those who have had all or almost all of their east-west trade closed.

The European countries that have been effected the least by trade closures are France, the Netherlands, Ireland, and the UK.

Out of those four, who do you guess is performing the worst on food inflation?

[graham]

Dec 1, 2022 9:54:14 GMT crossbat11 said:

graham

The period you're talking about, the early 70s, coincided with my late school days. Catholic all male boarding schools may not be the best vantage points for observing the social mores and trends of the time, so a caveat has to be applied to my thoughts on the subject you raise!

I'd agree with you that Roy Jenkins' celebrated permissive society (he rightly called it the civilised society) had established itself by the early 70s but it still had much road to run in terms of progress. I think deference to authority was in decline and the primacy of institutions more readily questioned, but the class system was still firmly established and bringing with it all those age old and long standing assumptions about who should wield power in society.

One of the factors that started to loosen the stultifying effect of deference in the 60s was the growth of political satire and the loosening of censorship. "That Was the Week that Was", a TV political satire show that attracted a vast audience, was groundbreaking with its lampooning and ridicule of once revered political and establishment figures who were until then more or less immune to such treatment.

CB

We appear to have been at school at much the same time. I attended a Boys' Grammar School which I left in Summer 1973. A very strict disciplinary regime prevailed there with much use of corporal punishment by the Headmaster. I recall an incident from July 1972 when 2 boys who had already completed their A levels - aged 18.5 and 19 respectively - were caught redhanded by the Head himself smoking in the Senior Toilets. This was a flagrant breach of School Rules and both were ordered to report to his study where they received 4 strokes of the cane each. Many would say that - prima facie - they got what they deserved  - BUT the lawyer in me points out that the law had changed on 1st Jan 1970 when the 'age of majority' was reduced to 18 from 21. Legally those two guys were - in 1972 - both Adults  -able to vote , marry without parental consent and sign legal documents. Thus, the Headmaster was no longer 'in loco parentis' in respect of them and my sense is that he acted unlawfully in punishing them. It rather goes against the line I was pushing in discussion last night, but - with hindsight - it does surprise me that those two young adults submitted to such punishment at all. They ought to have sought legal guidance. Perhaps the deference was still there!

[oldnat]

wb61

"A social engineering experiment on the micro-scale could be really damaging to the individual subjects of the experiment."

Gordon Brown and Val McDermid (along with others who were included in Fife's experiment with them at Kirkcaldy HS) have testified to that.

[Deleted]

Dec 1, 2022 10:56:58 GMT hireton said:

Latest YouGov Westminster VI:

Interesting uptick in Reform UK VI.

Looks like more than an uptick to me, certainly in just a week. Level pegging with LDEM. Only one poll, but pretty worrying for CON, I shouldn't wonder.

[Mr Poppy]

Dec 1, 2022 12:28:27 GMT jayblanc said:

Dec 1, 2022 12:05:34 GMT Mr Poppy said:

I pointed that out to pjw1961 a few days ago. I don't read Steve Bray's twitter rants but let me guess, he's been reading the Guardian again? Are Arch-Remainiac folks really so blissfully unaware of newspaper bias and too lazy to check sources for themselves? (rhetorical question)

Full link that folks will need to check for themselves: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/food-inflation

I'd have to point out that the Europe area figure includes countries who's direct trade lanes have been closed due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, leading to food inflation figures around 30% in those who have had all or almost all of their east-west trade closed.

The European countries that have been effected the least by trade closures are France, the Netherlands, Ireland, and the UK.

Out of those four, who do you guess is performing the worst on food inflation?

Ah, cherry picking season is it. Well how about I pick the largest country in the EZ, given you for some reason left that one out:

Germany: 17.7%

Your small/unrepresentative 'sample' of France, Netherlands and Ireland have one thing in common - very high levels of 'home grown' food. UK and Germany import a lot of food and I'm very happy to say UK needs to do something about that. A lot of attention has finally been placed on 'Energy Security' but 'Food Security' is also very important (IMO).

[Mr Poppy]

Another "quitter": Ian Blackford quits as SNP Westminster leader

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ian-blackford-resigns-snp-westminster-b2236866.html

[Mark]

Dec 1, 2022 9:28:24 GMT wb61 said:

Dec 1, 2022 9:21:38 GMT somerjohn said:

Am I right in thinking that the main tax break for private schools is that they're VAT-exempt by virtue of being charities?

If that's the case, isn't a possible compromise to set the bar for charitable status much higher? If, in order to qualify, a school had to take 50% of its pupils from the combined catchment area of the three nearest comprehensives, and the beneficiaries had to have spent at least two academic years in a comprehensive (ie 11-13, joining the private school intake at 13), then that would surely radically change the social milieu in those schools. Especially if the intake from comprehensives was selected by an independent body on the basis of need, not academic prowess (to avoid the private school creaming off the most able locals). The local authority could pay whatever its budget per pupil.

I don't suppose the likes of Eton would sign up for that, preferring to charge VAT. But a lot of schools would. They would then be genuinely charitable institutions (as many of them originally were) and there could be some useful undermining of entrenched classism.

I think you might forget how cruel teenagers can be and the conflict that might ensue between the two groups. A social engineering experiment on the micro-scale could be really damaging to the individual subjects of the experiment.   

To answer both is and graham's question on social deference...

I went to comprehensive in the 80's. The first thing - I mean the very first thing - that was drummed into us was we all had to stand up whenever another teacher came into the classroom.

At the time (my birthday being in August), I was only 11) I knew no different, but, as an adult, to me, this is plain wrong.

Just one little thing, but, I like to think, and certainly hope, that it is now confined to history.

In terms of catchment areas, it was a little unusual in that some of the areas were the most prosperous in Swansea, children of doctors, solicitors, the well heeled generally.

As well as that, some of the catchment areas were decidedly working class, a lot of unemployment back then, the working class areas made up of terraced housing lived in by former steelworkers, builders, even a few children of mineworkers.

I eggagerate, but, not much, saying that, in terms of behaviour and attitude, there was definately a divide. On the one side, there was definately an eleent of snobbery, on the other, kids were rough and ready.

In terms of extra curricular stuff, one group tended to take on things like debating societies, the other were more sports and other physical activites orientated.

The small group in the middle that were not naturally part of these groupings gravitated one way or the other.

The thing is, despite this invisible dividing line, there were upper/upper class kids on the rugby team just as there were working class kids in the debating societies...and there were certainly friendships between the two groups.

So, while I'm not sure about your idea overall, I'm not convinced of the idea it shouldn't be tried for fear that there would be two groups of kids that wouldn't get on. While I'm sure that, just like my school, there may well be invisible dividing lines, I also think that there would be at least some integration that otherwise may not have happened.

[Deleted]

Dec 1, 2022 12:46:23 GMT Mark said:

Dec 1, 2022 9:28:24 GMT wb61 said:

I went to comprehensive in the 80's. The first thing - I mean the very first thing - that was drummed into us was we all had to stand up whenever another teacher came into the classroom.

At the time (my birthday being in August), I was only 11) I knew no different, but, as an adult, to me, this is plain wrong.

Why ?

[crossbat11]

Dec 1, 2022 12:49:57 GMT colin said:

Dec 1, 2022 12:46:23 GMT Mark said:

I went to comprehensive in the 80's. The first thing - I mean the very first thing - that was drummed into us was we all had to stand up whenever another teacher came into the classroom.

At the time (my birthday being in August), I was only 11) I knew no different, but, as an adult, to me, this is plain wrong.

Why ?

Some LOC on LOC action going on here.

Healthy.

[Deleted]

Dec 1, 2022 12:46:19 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Another "quitter": Ian Blackford quits as SNP Westminster leader

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ian-blackford-resigns-snp-westminster-b2236866.html

Before being pushed ?


www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-63821836

[steve]

jib
I'm not sure what you think that graph proves.
But

A) There isn't a single inflation rate that applies throughout the European union. ( you know that you're probably not an idiot)

B) Looking at the actual data the most recent food inflation in the Euro area is lower than the U.K.( You need to read it)

Overall for the last full month ,October the average e u inflation rate was 11.5% the highest in Estonia at 22.5% the lowest our immediate neighbour France at 7.1%

The UK inflation rate in October was just over 11%.

About average for europe.

The latest food inflation rate for the .U.K. is 16.2% the average for the Euro area is 15.5% just 5 European union countries have hig food inflation than the U.K. all five are adjacent to the Russian Ukraine conflict and /or import a significant amount of food staples from Ukraine.


Maybe next time you do some " fact checking" you might try checking the facts!

[Mr Poppy]

I doubt you'd read much about the 'profit' BoE made on the 'Truss-Kwarteng' intervention and even the very limited attention in the financial press doesn't mention it specifically:

Bank of England sells 1.5 bln pounds of gilts
www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bank-england-sells-15-bln-pounds-gilts-2022-11-30/

I posted some numbers on UKPR2a a while back but will give a very rough summary again.

Total: £19bn
Rough average change in price*: +25%

Profit: almost £5bn

It's not really a 'profit' as it was never really a purchase in the 'magic' world of printing/burning your own money by moving numbers around on a spreadsheet. 

However, of more interest is perhaps BoE are engaging in 'yield curve targeting'? 30y gilt yields are currently around 3.4% (having touched 5% in the 'panic' after Kwarteng's mini-budget) and whilst at 5% they were a screaming 'buy' for all those (including BoE) who notice such things then at these levels they are a 'sell' (and if they get below 3% then they are IMO a 'short'). After the absurdity of BoE buying gilts at ridiculously low yields (and -ve real yields for IL gilts) during the era of 'Magic Money Trees' (QE) then good to see a smarter approach from BoE - targeting the yields at which to buy and sell gilts. 

* markets.ft.com/data/bonds/tearsheet/summary?s=GB30YT%3DRR

[Deleted]

Re social attitudes to authority etc. I was born in 1944 and it seemed (I use that word deliberately) that everything started changing in the late 50s in this country (I had spent most of my school life in the Mediterranean - though not always actually in the sea).

Then, probably, the Beatles and the Stones, anti-war demos in America, hippies, long hair, no suits, no ties - all of this gave a very sudden impression of enormous change. It may have been shallow but I do think it kick-started everything.

Before then children went from clothes suitable for school to clothes - similar to their parents - for work, with nothing in between.

So, pour moi, that was the start of it and, as an aspiring musician, I embraced it totally. Change, since then, has been disappointingly slow but I won’t bother listing the many thing that still need changing. Ending calling other people “Lord” or “Lady” would be an obvious start though.

[Deleted]

Dec 1, 2022 13:11:39 GMT @crofty said:

 Change, since then, has been disappointingly slow but I won’t bother listing the many thing that still need changing. Ending calling other people “Lord” or “Lady” would be an obvious start though.

Bit prissy about certain other words though.

[crossbat11]

Dec 1, 2022 13:16:03 GMT nickp said:

Dec 1, 2022 13:11:39 GMT @crofty said:

 Change, since then, has been disappointingly slow but I won’t bother listing the many thing that still need changing. Ending calling other people “Lord” or “Lady” would be an obvious start though.

Bit prissy about certain other words though.

Palace has aristocratic overtones whereas Villa reminds me of proletarian holiday apartments in Tenerife.

Villa. The working class club.