26-Nov 2022 : LAB: 50% / CON: 27% / LDEM: 9% / GRN: 4%

[ladyvalerie]

Nov 29, 2022 2:08:58 GMT robbiealive said:

Nov 29, 2022 1:16:56 GMT oldnat said:

As a "British woman" you are totally happy with a constitutional arrangement that entitles a UKGov, elected with a large majority by c.33% of the electorate, to wipe out all the gains made by women over the last century and more, to be removed by a simple majority in the UK HoC.

I'd rather look to Ireland, where the people have amended their constitution from the archaic "social norms and mores" they once had, and which can't be reversed by a simple majority in their Parliament.

Well done you!

God knows how many times you've posted on this site today but your incessant posting does not entitle you to engage in crass, boorish & self-righteous posturing. You pretend to be asking a question of Lady V (in a sentence which has no question mark) but in fact you're telling her what she thinks. If you had bothered to read her post you would have realised that she was comparing the codified constitutional arrangements in the USA, which have just led to the anihilation of women's rights at a stroke by a bench dominated by right-wing, religious fanatics, with those constitutional arrangements which in practice, if not in theory,  prevail in this country and which in effect protect women's rights. 
Your current preoccupation with constitutionalism presumably arises from yr anger at the recent decision by the Supreme Court & a belief that a codifided constitution would enable further referendums on Scotland's future. I think you have made a number of questionable assumptions on the subject of (UK) constitutionalism to which I shall return if I can be effing bothered.

Thanks Robbie.
I appreciate your support. 👍🏻

[Deleted]

Nov 29, 2022 11:43:54 GMT ladyvalerie said:

www.theguardian.com/film/2022/oct/25/ralph-fiennes-defends-jk-rowling

www.theguardian.com/film/2022/nov/28/helena-bonham-carter-defends-jk-rowling-and-johnny-depp

[crossbat11]

Steady as we go. Not even a dead count bounce in this one for the Tories:-

[wb61]

Nov 29, 2022 12:03:01 GMT crossbat11 said:

Steady as we go. Not even a dead count bounce in this one for the Tories:-

Be careful certain dead Counts tend to rise from the grave to bite you in the neck

[robbiealive]

The forum is just over a year old. The grand total of posts is 61,000, about 160 per day, so yesterday was not unusual; it just felt like it. It's v quick to manipulate the data. Done fast.

1. 2/3rds of members have posted 0-2 times. 60 odd have posted a 100 times or more.

2. Posting is dominated by a small number. 21 with a 1,000+ posts contributed 72%! of the total as follows: (tw is a problem, ha ha, so attributed 1,500 to his various identities).

3 Tories, 2 Nats: anti-Labour                          18% of Grand total
11 Labour                                                     36%
5) 1 Lib-Dem, 4 non-aligned, confused or both 18%

10 posters with 2,000+ posts = 46% of posts. These evergreen, immortal, deathless posters: 5 Lab, I Nat, 2 Tories, 1 Lib-Dem plus Danny.

3. There is no one in the 1,000+ group who wasnt on UKPolling1 except Lulu & Barbara (Graham?)
4. There are 5 women with 100+ votes who come in at just over 6% of total.

5. It would take far too long to categorise all frequent posters but the weight of posting suggests there is no Labour bias except in number of posters. 
6. Vistors? Not sure if the daily count is of separate visitors or the number includes those who log on more than once. Moddy Mark might know.

Conclusion. Some people could post less as I suspect people who flood forums put other people off:  but then, e.g., Crofty is one of the immortals & many people like his humour including myself. 

[alec]

Danny - "Wouldnt it be better for your argument to explain what you think is wrong with my analysis? Cant do that? Oh dear."

You are a troll. The only time I have ever accused anyone of that on UKPR. You aren't interested in debate or learning. I will point out where you make factually incorrect statements and leave it at that. I have no interest in getting into a wider debate with you precisely because that's what you want, to create the false impression of some equivalence between the factual, honest views I present and the witless garbage you have invented.

[Mr Poppy]

Nov 29, 2022 11:36:20 GMT colin said:

Well I think its the same objective as Starmer really. To present a departure from constant loggerheads with EU. Starting with a resolution of the NIP ( I seem to remember he promised Biden by April ??). Moving on , via better personal relationships with Macron, and bi lateral/multilateral engagement on Ukraine, defense, energy etc  ........to a place from where something might be accomplished on the trade front.

I agree that Sunak will probably be preparing this ground for Starmer.

 

We've seen lots of dates come and go but the 25th Anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement is a pretty major milestone that creates a very good backdrop for solving the issue of the NIP "frontstop" (where UK is currently just doing our own thing and ignoring parts of the NIP and EC are using toothless "infringement" letters). Biden can do some grand-standing as well. It's a WIN-WIN-WIN opportunity for UK-EC-US to have a 'love-in' pretend they all made 'concessions' but got a 'fair deal' with Biden being the peacemaker, etc. 

NI deal will be sorted by Good Friday anniversary, Sunak promises* Biden

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/nov/16/ni-deal-will-be-sorted-by-good-friday-anniversary-sunak-promises-biden

Once the issue of GB-NI is resolved then a lot of the ongoing minor issues of UK-EU27 will likely also be resolved.

* I don't think he had his fingers crossed behind his back when he said that but a lot will depend on the 'sherpas' agreeing the specific rewriting/reimplementing of NIP before 7April'23 (or 10April (Easter Monday but technically the 25th anniversary) if negotiations have to go through the 'failed' and rise again pantomime to make it look like it was really, really difficult). I'm not going through 'alignment' v 'MRA+E' again and whatever you do, then never ever call resolving some of the loose ends from the TCA+NIP a 'Swiss-style' agreement. 

[Mr Poppy]

YG poll on today's major event for two of our great nations - let's just hope the wind picks up so we all get to watch it:

?

[alec]

colin - "Our border is merely a secondary line of defence in this respect to EU's southern and Eastern borders, which thousands of migrants, both economic and refugees, continue to breach in complete rejection of the absence of legal routes open to them."

Indeed.

I just can't understand anyone who claims to want to see a tougher stance of immigration give any credence to a political party that wants to cut our overseas aid budget. The level of witless gurning that keeps coming to my mind.

[domjg]

Nov 29, 2022 12:13:12 GMT robbiealive said:

The forum is just over a year old. The grand total of posts is 61,000, about 160 per day, so yesterday was not unusual; it just felt like it. It's v quick to manipulate the data. Done fast.

1. 2/3rds of members have posted 0-2 times. 60 odd have posted a 100 times or more.

2. Posting is dominated by a small number. 21 with a 1,000+ posts contributed 72%! of the total as follows: (tw is a problem, ha ha, so attributed 1,500 to his various identities).

3 Tories, 2 Nats: anti-Labour                          18% of Grand total
11 Labour                                                     36%
5, 1 Lib-Dem, 4 non-aligned, confused or both 18%

10 posters with 2,000+ posts = 46% of posts. These evergreen, immortal, deathless posters: 5 Lab, I Nat, 2 Tories, 1 Lib-Dem plus Danny.

3. There is no one in the 1,000+ group who wasnt on UKPolling1 except Lulu & Barbara (Graham?)
4. There are 5 women with 100+ votes who come in at just over 6% of total.

5. It would take far too long to categorise all frequent posters but the weight of posting suggests there is no Labour bias except in number of posters. 
6. Vistors? Not sure if the daily count is of separate visitors or the number includes those who log on more than once. Moddy Mark might know.

Interesting stuff thanks Robbie. Couple of corrections, ie Lulu was on the original Ukpr I believe but with a different username I understand.

I wasn't on the original Ukpr (though had been for years as a lurker) and alas I've contributed way over 1000 posts it seems. Going to make an effort to post far less frequently.. 

[Deleted]

I'm self identifying as roc to add some balance.

[alec]

And for anyone who still thinks the government 'got all the big calls right' in their covid response -

Wasted millions, and a wasted opportunity.

[crossbat11]

Robbiealive

Did you determine how many of my 1000 plus posts were related to sport; football particularly?

In my defence, I did take a one year sabbatical from posting anything at all in 2020/21. This coincided with the death of UKPR1 and the birth of UKPR2.

Didn't miss it much and neither lurked nor posted. It does have its slightly addictive quality though once you get stuck in again. I tend to have a look in the morning for a bit and then maybe again in the evening. Usually otherwise engaged during the day, albeit I'm faffing around on my phone at the moment waiting for Mrs H to emerge.

Phones are the danger for overposting. If I was desktop dependent I think I'd post far less than I do. Maybe not at all

All that said, I doubt whether I'm on here for more than thirty minutes in any one day. Some days not at all. A manageable habit!

The sabbatical may come again, especially if Labour start tanking in the polls!

[domjg]

Nov 29, 2022 12:30:26 GMT @crofty said:

I'm self identifying as roc to add some balance.

You'll never pull it off! (Good start for me posting less..)

[Mark]

Nov 29, 2022 7:28:42 GMT steve said:

Regarding essential foreign workers.

Since Brexit there's being a reduction by 4000 in the number of European union citizens working as doctors in the U.K. Overall the reduction in European union citizens working in the nhs is in excess of 30,000.
There's a net reduction overall of around 50,000 European union citizens living here each year since the Brexit vote.

Given that the vast majority would have been awarded permanent right to remain under the terms of departure you have to assume that the attraction of remaining in a hostile environment anti free movement failing state aren't that great.

Faith spoke to many of her Irish colleagues who were leaving from one of the UK's flagship nhs trusts, despite the fact that the common travel area meant their status was essentially unchanged and they retained their European union citizens rights to free movement stolen from U.K. citizens they still left in their dozens.
The consensus view was that the casual hostility towards those with a foreign accent and the insular border closed nationalist government and media just didn't make it an attractive place to stay.

They had widely needed skills and the rights necessary to go elsewhere freely in Europe to use them so they did. Or retirement was approaching and like the vast majority of other European union citizens they chose to exercise their freedoms to spend it in somewhere nicer.

Self inflicted damage that both major parties seem keen to perpetuate.

Exactly this.

I could also mention a friend of mine, a teacher here in the the UK, who has faced continual verbal abuse (as has her children) since the brexit referendum.

She speaks perfect English, but, with a French accent.

So far, she has stayed, but wants out.

This abuse is the ugly side of brexit - and of the hostile anti-immigrant sentiment adopted by the tories and part of the press, now, sadly, also being taken up by Starmer.

[steve]

alec
On the rudder of a ship for eleven days.
Extraordinary you would have thought but it isn't similar such attempts have been made to reach the Canary islands before the number of people trying to do so has risen substantially as the relatively safer routes across the Mediterranean have been curtailed.
Spanish authorities estimate that thousands have died in small boats trying to reach the islands in the hundreds sometimes thousands of miles crossings of the Atlantic from the main land of Africa.
There's nothing Spanish authorities can do outside of the 12 nautical miles territorial waters to mitigate this.

[johntel]

Nov 29, 2022 12:13:12 GMT robbiealive said:

The forum is just over a year old. The grand total of posts is 61,000, about 160 per day, so yesterday was not unusual; it just felt like it. It's v quick to manipulate the data. Done fast.
.......


5) 1 Lib-Dem, 4 non-aligned, confused or both 18%

I'm not aware of any pact between the Lib Dems, non-aligned and confused, but maybe they should consider it. 

In any case I think you've under-estimated these groups 

 

[thylacine]

Nov 29, 2022 12:30:26 GMT @crofty said:

I'm self identifying as roc to add some balance.

For the dullards amongst us can you clarify are you being ironic or not ?

[alec]

Over on the energy thread, Trevor's gone off on one (again) this time inventing the idea that some people (on here? out there? in the press? who knows?) once thought that we "could survive on nearly entirely wind power". From there, he's moved into hyper-drive over the state of wind generation under the current weather conditions, flagging up to risks to the grid stability because of low wind speeds.

All very true, but this is a common aspect of commentary at such times; it's all the fault of wind power. As it happens, UK nuclear production is somewhere around the 70 - 80% capacity at present, so we could just as likely 'blame' nuclear for the low power warnings we are currently getting. But that's not really the point here. We know renewables are intermittent and the nuclear sector is wrestling with output reductions due to failing plant. These things are generally well predicted and well understood.

The real question is why we have a grid system that is so prone to such events. The two most relevant questions would be 'why is the UK so vulnerable to entirely predictable power production patterns?' and then leading on from this, 'who has been in government for the last 12 years, delivering such a uselessly unprepared system?'.

Remember, this has nothing whatsoever to do with the Ukraine war. That affects prices, not power generation capacity. It's all about the total failure of a Conservative private sector model of power provision.

[wb61]

Nov 29, 2022 12:52:43 GMT alec said:

Over on the energy thread, Trevor's gone off on one (again) this time inventing the idea that some people (on here? out there? in the press? who knows?) once thought that we "could survive on nearly entirely wind power". From there, he's moved into hyper-drive over the state of wind generation under the current weather conditions, flagging up to risks to the grid stability because of low wind speeds.

All very true, but this is a common aspect of commentary at such times; it's all the fault of wind power. As it happens, UK nuclear production is somewhere around the 70 - 80% capacity at present, so we could just as likely 'blame' nuclear for the low power warnings we are currently getting. But that's not really the point here. We know renewables are intermittent and the nuclear sector is wrestling with output reductions due to failing plant. These things are generally well predicted and well understood.

The real question is why we have a grid system that is so prone to such events. The two most relevant questions would be 'why is the UK so vulnerable to entirely predictable power production patterns?' and then leading on from this, 'who has been in government for the last 12 years, delivering such a uselessly unprepared system?'.

Remember, this has nothing whatsoever to do with the Ukraine war. That affects prices, not power generation capacity. It's all about the total failure of a Conservative private sector model of power provision.

I am genuinely curious, is that correct in respect of tidal, it seems counterintuitive.

[Mr Poppy]

After the ridiculous time wasting of "typo-gate" y'day then I encourage folks to look at the YG tabs themselves but I'll post the CON'19 x-break from their latest (which is a bit different to R&W but shows similar kind of thing - a big drop in voter retention with significant DK+WNV but also a significant move to LAB, also RUK noticeable in the YG one)

CON'19 voters are now:
CON: 44% - very low
DK: 23% - high
LAB: 12% - significant
RUK: 9% - 'one to watch'
WNV: 6%
LDEM: 3%

Compared to LAB'19
LAB: 72% - pretty good
DK: 10% - fairly low
Green: 6% - fairly low and might well move to LAB in specific seats in a GE.
WNV: 4%
LDEM: 3%
...

To avoid being accused of ignoring LDEM then for them:
LAB: 39% - so LAB are actually getting more VI from LDEM'19 than LDEM are retaining in this poll
LDEM: 38% - even lower than CON'19 retention
DK: 11%
CON: 4%
...

Folks can multiply out the numbers by different %s of votes for each party in GE'19 if they want to. I expect Sir Keir will continue to be very welcoming to CON'19 voters with policy ideas that they like (eg controlling immigration). Building a broader church by taking a few liberties with LAB 'core' voters. It's not rocket science - every successful CON or LAB electoral success has come from building a broad coalition of voters. Keeping that broad coalition united into future GEs is the tricky bit (made far worse if the MPs for said party are more interested in factional infighting* than actually getting stuff done - hence the 'push' factor of CON pushing voters into VI for other parties, with LAB the biggest beneficiary of those votes). 

docs.cdn.yougov.com/meayrfvfmi/TheTimes_VI_AdHoc_221123_W.pdf

* As Tory Blair said y'day: “I always say to people at least the Labour Party had the decency to have its nervous breakdown in opposition”"

[wb61]

alec

sorry I should have said Tidal is still a sore spot for some of us in Swansea since Theresa May's Government dismissed the planned barrage.

[Mr Poppy]

Nov 29, 2022 12:50:59 GMT johntel said:

Nov 29, 2022 12:13:12 GMT robbiealive said:

The forum is just over a year old. The grand total of posts is 61,000, about 160 per day, so yesterday was not unusual; it just felt like it. It's v quick to manipulate the data. Done fast.
.......


5) 1 Lib-Dem, 4 non-aligned, confused or both 18%

I'm not aware of any pact between the Lib Dems, non-aligned and confused, but maybe they should consider it. 

In any case I think you've under-estimated these groups 

 

Surely LDEM and 'confused' are one and the same 

I note in the most recent YG that LDEM 'loyalty' is even worse than CON.

Of course some folks do change their vote from one election to next and in that regard LDEM usually win the prize for the most 'fickle' (confused?) voters but CON might give them a run for that 'honour' for GE'19-24 fickleness (certainly in absolute numbers, even if not %s)

[domjg]

Nov 29, 2022 8:30:15 GMT jib said:

Amusing to read our resident Lib Dem with his anecdotal musings about the impact of Brexit and the "failing" state of the UK.

If there's one major factor responsible for failure of public services, regulation and regulated services in the UK now it is the 2010-15 coalition.

They didn't have the political "big boy pants" to rescind hard fought for legislation, they just defunded the public authorities and brought about their deregulated utopia that way.

Sh**sters.



View Attachment

We could get that picture framed for you for your birthday if you like!

[steve]

As an aid to balance as Paul is self identifying as right of centre I a self identifying as an aged guitarist with canine friends.

[domjg]

Nov 29, 2022 12:42:59 GMT Mark said:

Nov 29, 2022 7:28:42 GMT steve said:

Regarding essential foreign workers.

Since Brexit there's being a reduction by 4000 in the number of European union citizens working as doctors in the U.K. Overall the reduction in European union citizens working in the nhs is in excess of 30,000.
There's a net reduction overall of around 50,000 European union citizens living here each year since the Brexit vote.

Given that the vast majority would have been awarded permanent right to remain under the terms of departure you have to assume that the attraction of remaining in a hostile environment anti free movement failing state aren't that great.

Faith spoke to many of her Irish colleagues who were leaving from one of the UK's flagship nhs trusts, despite the fact that the common travel area meant their status was essentially unchanged and they retained their European union citizens rights to free movement stolen from U.K. citizens they still left in their dozens.
The consensus view was that the casual hostility towards those with a foreign accent and the insular border closed nationalist government and media just didn't make it an attractive place to stay.

They had widely needed skills and the rights necessary to go elsewhere freely in Europe to use them so they did. Or retirement was approaching and like the vast majority of other European union citizens they chose to exercise their freedoms to spend it in somewhere nicer.

Self inflicted damage that both major parties seem keen to perpetuate.

Exactly this.

I could also mention a friend of mine, a teacher here in the the UK, who has faced continual verbal abuse (as has her children) since the brexit referendum.

She speaks perfect English, but, with a French accent.

So far, she has stayed, but wants out.

This abuse is the ugly side of brexit - and of the hostile anti-immigrant sentiment adopted by the tories and part of the press, now, sadly, also being taken up by Starmer.

I've experienced muted but definite disapproval when speaking German in public. Normally older English women for some reason (Way to make tourists feel welcome..). It's a small insight into what it can be like in this country if some decide that you don't look or 'sound' right. For contrast I've never experienced any hostility at all speaking English in any other country. 

[steve]

Today's late black Friday deal.

[richardstamper]

Nov 29, 2022 12:55:25 GMT wb61 said:

Nov 29, 2022 12:52:43 GMT alec said:

Over on the energy thread, Trevor's gone off on one (again) this time inventing the idea that some people (on here? out there? in the press? who knows?) once thought that we "could survive on nearly entirely wind power". From there, he's moved into hyper-drive over the state of wind generation under the current weather conditions, flagging up to risks to the grid stability because of low wind speeds.

All very true, but this is a common aspect of commentary at such times; it's all the fault of wind power. As it happens, UK nuclear production is somewhere around the 70 - 80% capacity at present, so we could just as likely 'blame' nuclear for the low power warnings we are currently getting. But that's not really the point here. We know renewables are intermittent and the nuclear sector is wrestling with output reductions due to failing plant. These things are generally well predicted and well understood.

The real question is why we have a grid system that is so prone to such events. The two most relevant questions would be 'why is the UK so vulnerable to entirely predictable power production patterns?' and then leading on from this, 'who has been in government for the last 12 years, delivering such a uselessly unprepared system?'.

Remember, this has nothing whatsoever to do with the Ukraine war. That affects prices, not power generation capacity. It's all about the total failure of a Conservative private sector model of power provision.

I am genuinely curious, is that correct in respect of tidal, it seems counterintuitive.

Tidal is intermittent but highly predictable - we know effectively indefinitely far ahead how quickly the tide will be flowing where.
Wind is intermittent and moderately predictable - weather forecasts are now good enough at about a week out for wind generation in geographical area about the size of the UK
Nuclear is mostly constant and very predictable, but when unpredicted outages happen they have a large impact because the quantum of generation is typically roughly 1.1GW which is a lot to replace at short notice

[steve]

domjg

When a young uniformed police officer I quite routinely received a rousing reception of moped noises ( put, put, put,) along with " fuck off back to your own country" which seemed a tad bizarre given I was born in Brixton and while my grandfather was from North Africa and I've inherited his colour, other family members are all from the British isles,but racists were never particularly good at geography.

What Brexit has done is legitimise these views we've moved from the beer swigging yob racist years of the 1980's to the BNP in blazers of today's tory/ukip coalition.

[wb61]

Nov 29, 2022 13:12:19 GMT richardstamper said:

Nov 29, 2022 12:55:25 GMT wb61 said:

Tidal is intermittent but highly predictable - we know effectively indefinitely far ahead how quickly the tide will be flowing where.
Wind is intermittent and moderately predictable - weather forecasts are now good enough at about a week out for wind generation in geographical area about the size of the UK
Nuclear is mostly constant and very predictable, but when unpredicted outages happen they have a large impact because the quantum of generation is typically roughly 1.1GW which is a lot to replace at short notice

Thank you, that has put me right.

the reason I thought it was not intermittent was because my understanding of the proposed Swansea Barrage: it was described as having a dam and turbine system where the turbines would operate on both the incoming and outgoing tides.