Scotland, Indy, Devolution and other consistutional issues

[Mr Poppy]

Folks can obviously use the main thread if they if prefer. However, to avoid scrolling back to find out who said what and when or to find useful links, polling or articles then folks can use this Issue Specific thread if they want to.

I'll kick it off by copying over an article from UKPR2b which covers a lot of the points made on UKPR2a

Sturgeon's Supreme Court Setback Isn't All Bad for SNP

pollingreport.uk/articles/sturgeons-supreme-court-setback-isnt-bad-news-for-snp

[Mr Poppy]

A very good site for all Scottish polling is: ballotbox.scot

Also Prof Curtice that includes all the question from the 'snap' FindOutNow poll: whatscotlandthinks.org

Some recent polling links (all with fieldwork prior to SC ruling):
YG article: What would make the Scots change their mind about independence?
yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/21/what-would-make-scots-change-their-mind-about-inde

Ipsos Mori biannual poll from May'22, another one due very soon:
www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-05/ipsos-scottish-political-monitor-may-2022-charts.pdf

I expect we'll get some more polling soon, given the 'event' of the SC ruling

[Mr Poppy]

R&W poll with loads of detailed questions: Scottish Independence Referendum & Westminster Voting Intention (26-27 November 2022)

redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/scottish-independence-referendum-westminster-voting-intention-26-27-november-2022/

[Mr Poppy]

Northern Ireland rejects Irish unity by large margin, poll shows

Remain.UK v United Ireland polling for NI

Stay In: 50%
Leave.UK: 27%

Net Stay: 23%

In the Republic, the picture is very different. Almost two-thirds of all respondents (66 per cent) said they would vote for unity, with just 16 per cent against

Despite the differing outcomes, there are strong majorities in both jurisdictions in favour of holding referendums. More than half of Northern voters (55 per cent) favoured a referendum, with a majority preferring a longer timescale of 10 years.

www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2022/12/03/poll-shows-northern-ireland-rejects-unity-by-large-margin/

2c The GFA conditions for a Border Poll are that "it appears likely to him (SoS for NI) that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the UK and form part of a united Ireland". So 'net stay 23%' is pretty clearly not meeting the criteria for a Borer Poll.

However, it is possible to hold a different referendum (eg for all three devolved polities to approve a 'Clarity Act' that covers new 'Acts of the Union' with a more clarity on the 'vague' for refs, etc - especially given the hope/expectation that NIP issues will be resolved into the 25th anniversary of the GFA and SNP's intending to make GE'24 in Scotland a "defacto IndyRef2").

If any of the three devolved polities vote against new 'Acts of the Union' covering their polity then can be invited to state their plan to Leave.UK (and in NI case - Unite with RoI)

[Mr Poppy]

I appreciate folks prefer the 'glamour' of the main UKPR2a thread but I'll pop Scottish specific polling on this thread so that it's easy to find later.

Latest from Ipsos: Yes pulls ahead and SNP strengthens support

www.ipsos.com/en-uk/yes-pulls-ahead-and-snp-strengthens-support

From BBS: "Note that Ipsos do tend to give highest Independence figures"

[Mr Poppy]

New Savanta polling which is very different to Ipsos findings. Full tabs are not on their website yet but all the info can be found on their twitter feed, such as: