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Post by alec on Oct 3, 2022 6:26:24 GMT
As ever, I suspect that the slow burn issues are the most damaging. Now that Truss is to U Turn on the 45% tax rate idiocy, we'll move onto the the next scandal, and I suspect it will simmer and boil and give Labour even more please. The chat in the media is now about the real terms cut in UC payments, and other big spending cuts, 'to pay for the energy bailout'. Our colin thinks that voters will be relieved to see their bills double, then go no further, and up to a point, they will be, but using the refusal to impose a windfall levy on what will be massive energy industry profits as an excuse for cuts to benefits and services? That's not so smart, I would contend. Labour shouldn't let this one rest. Another bit of ideology hurting ordinary voters. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 3, 2022 6:40:06 GMT
Of course given that the Sun and the Tory party are under the same management it's more an in house memo.
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Post by jib on Oct 3, 2022 6:50:06 GMT
Too little too late I'd say for Truss and bungler Kwasi.
The damage is done and then the mud is going to stick that these two are looking out for the rich not the hard working families that Cameron banged on about.
The fact they also now have rebellious party on their hands and most MPs don't support her, it's going to be a rough ride.
Trying to turn the green belt beloved of so many Conservative Home County voters into Opportunity Zones or whatever is going to be the next own goal.
Cack handed zealots the pair of them.
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 3, 2022 6:58:56 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 7:02:19 GMT
Nice to see government business being conducted by Sun editor tweet! Not really new though, sadly |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 7:23:08 GMT
caroline What a shame the workhouses closed down.😁 [banter] While I'm all in favour of encouraging people to use libraries, I'm uncomfortable with the idea of them effectively being turned into refugee camps for people who can't afford heating in the winter. This was being widely floated a few weeks ago. Turning libraries into workhouses. And when funding runs out for libraries to keep the lights and heating on, I hope you'll entertain us with another joke about burning books for warmth, just like the good old days. [banter] Since you failed to use the official mercian banter smilie Inthink that is in very poor taste. |
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Post by shevii on Oct 3, 2022 7:32:54 GMT
ptarmigan No expert on Brazilian politics but I would assume that the 7% that voted for other centre/left candidates are likely to support Lula da Silva now. No expert myself but it looks like the other main candidate on the left did poorly- expected to be 3rd in polling but finished 4th. Enough there to take Lula over the line assuming those votes transfer and perhaps the under 1% other candidates will top Lula's vote up a bit too but far from a certainty in my uninformed opinion and dependent on turnout. Also a narrow win for Lula might give Bolsonaro ideas. |
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Post by charles on Oct 3, 2022 7:36:02 GMT
Thanks to those who answered my question about benefits and low wages. The principle that it is a good idea to ensure that they are uprated enough to keep pace with inflation seems to be accepted. My follow-up question is whether Labour could do it in the current situation while simultaneously accepting the cut in the lower rate of income tax, reversing the national insurance rise, keeping quiet about anything other than a windfall tax, and saying that they will not borrow to meet current expenditure (e.g. nurses' wages). Inflation will itself increase government revenue so it's possible that this circle can be squared. Personally I doubt it, but think that Labour ought to have some credible way through up their sleeve. What this card might be or how they should play it, I don't know but I would certainly be interested in what others think.
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Post by hireton on Oct 3, 2022 7:41:28 GMT
It's difficult to see how Kwarteng can continue as Chancellor.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 7:49:40 GMT
It's difficult to see how Kwarteng can continue as Chancellor. It's easy - he doesn't resign and Truss doesn't sack him. Yet. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 7:51:06 GMT
disarray in Daily Mail land ..
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 8:08:42 GMT
The frustrating thing about this 45% tax rate climbdown is that although the optics of both policy and climbdown are atrocious, the practical impact on the nation's finances is fairly minor in the context of all the other unfunded tax cuts and energy support and I would have thought it will do little to restore the UK's international credibility. So there will still be eyewatering cuts in welfare payments and public services, in line with the Truss-Kwarteng ideology. Assuming that the quasi-cosmetic climbdown stifles rebellious mutterings amongst backbench Tories it is hard to see a path away from this policy agenda before the next election and that should worry anyone who cares about the natural environment (they can do enormous, irreparable damage in 18 months) or the health and wellbeing of people with limited financial resources. Although the worst of the environmental damage will be concentrated in non-Tory areas I would expect many ROC voters to deplore it, but the problem will be lack of salience - I don't think many people are going to realise that a catastrophe is being perpetrated. The story of the pollution happening in Teesside at the moment has been around for 23 months but, despite Alec mentioning it on here, I'd bet that most UKPRers don't have a clue what I'm talking about. Imagine how much coverage less dramatic environmental damage is going to get. Somewhat similarly with the squeeze on welfare and public services. I'm sure that plenty, maybe the majority, of ROC voters are unhappy about this and would agree that these are going to fall below what we might call the 'decent minimum' - if they haven't already (collapsed NHS). The problem for Lab is that it must convince these ROC voters that (a) the squeeze is neither inevitable nor necessary to fiscal credibility and (b) that it has credible alternative policies. During Osborne's austerity era it failed spectacularly at (a) and when that happens a govt can get away with failing to provide the 'decent minimum', because although voters will wring their hands, deplore what's happening and give what they feel they can to charities that are trying to fill the gap, they won't necessarily change their vote. They'll say that the govt is doing the best it can in difficult circumstances, that it's not the govt's fault, that the govt can't do anything about the problem. |
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Post by Mark on Oct 3, 2022 8:16:05 GMT
Thinking aloud...
Here's a idea...a 'physical spam' tax.
I have been sorting out my Dad's paperwork. Like myself, it's not something he's good at or inclined to, but, it had got to such a point that it needed sorting.
As well as the stuff that was to be kept, there were over two full recycling bags (the sme size as the traditional 'black bag') of stuff to be chucked.
The vast bulk of this (well over 90%) was spam!
Ok, that is over a period of a couple of years, but, aimed at just one person . To see it bagged up and seeing the volume was genuinely shocking!
This in an era where we are told that we should be greener in our outlook.
So, I propose a 'physical spam' tax, firstly, to actually discourage this stuff and secondly, it raises much needed taxation from those that can afford to send (often glossy) spam to people eithor directly by post or door to door, the vast bulk of which is simply chucked without anyone even looking at it.
Maybe an exception/allowance for charities and super-local events like school fetes.
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 3, 2022 8:16:40 GMT
charles
Closing, or maybe even eliminating, the estimated 5% tax gap may help the Exchequer. It is estimated that about £35 million is lost by the government each year and almost half of that is by dint of fraud. Evasion rather than avoidance. Then there are the closure of tax loopholes too.
All difficult to do, although stripping the Inland Revenue of staff hasn't helped (part of the Blob), but a big drive on this does seem a fairly pain free way of boosting tax revenues to finance desireable public expenditure.
Then of course there are arguments for greater tax on capital assets and inheritance. We under tax these.
I've always thought that it would be politically clever for a Labour government to hypothecate tax revenue obtained from big corporation avoiders. They could then say, look, you see these 10,000 extra nurses, doctors, coppers, teachers etc we're getting, they have come from this pot here we've got from Amazon, Uber, Google etc.
Popular tax and spend.
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Post by mandolinist on Oct 3, 2022 8:22:22 GMT
Hello @janus , welcome.
I think your first contribution is very well considered. There is a massive piece of work which it is essential the Labour Party gets on with. The Government must shoulder the blame for the chaos they have unleashed.
The environmental damage issues are being highlighted by other organisations which are very popular with people often regarded as apolitical or mildly ROC. The National Trust and the RSPB have launched massive campaigns over the past few days to highlight the threats to environmental legislation and nature reserves. They speak for great swathes of middle but reasonably comfortably off England in particular. The membership of both organisations is heavily skewed to pensioners, the Tories have misjudged this too.
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 3, 2022 8:26:43 GMT
I wonder whether the Brazilian presidential race yesterday is further evidence of dodgy opinion polls disfiguring elections. They were obviously hopelessly wrong (again!), but to what extent did they influence voting too? That's my concern about them and why I believe they should be banned during campaigns. Did they generate complacency amongst Lula supporters and stimulate greater determination to turn out for Bolansaro voters yesterday?
They manage expectation levels too. I think that wasn't a bad result at all for the Brazilian Left and Lula yesterday, but all is despair and disappointment because they/he underperformed the polling. Boost for Bolansaro because he exceeded expectations.
Sadly, the expectations were massaged by duff data from opinion polls.
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 3, 2022 8:30:31 GMT
Good morning @janus
Informative and interesting first post
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 3, 2022 8:34:55 GMT
So whats the end game for Putin?
Their analysis points out that the propaganda war within Russia has two elements, the state broadcast services and an array of independent bloggers. Although the bloggers are critical of the official line, their criticisma is largely confined to mismanagement, and they have had some endorsement from Putin. First that he hasnt shut them down, and then that he met with some of them, giving them a certain status (but paints him as listening, too). This smacks to me of exactly the same game the tories have played for years, to be their own opposition. Russians are presented with the official line, but also a controlled opposition.
The best way through this would seem to be for Putin to paint himself as the champion of Russia who tried to extend its power, but was thwarted by internal incompetence and corruption. The army performed way below expectations, how can he be blamed for this? Various officers have already been dismissed and this continues.
The annexation of occupied areas of Ukraine seems mostly to be so that he can legally use conscript troops there. These are already in battle, and it seems fighting rather badly. But without them its possible the front would simply have collapsed already for lack of men. Conscription was therefore already essential to prevent an instant collapse. Russia had a corps of officers and equipment which performed under par right from the outset, but the 60,000 deaths plus however many non fatal casualties will hardly have improved the numbers of experienced men, and there is an armies worth of destroyed equipment. Conscripts who much prefer to surrender than fight arent going to win this war.
So sooner or later the expectation now is further Russian collapses, and little scope for better odds in the future. Especially if the west formally acknowledges Ukraine somehow with explicit military aid going forward.
The west's interest will probably have been focussed by the commodity resources we now are aware of in Ukraine. Essential minerals for Europe, essential grain supplies for the world. Thats a real incentive to help. But it seems likely it was also the real reason for the invasion. Russian analysis concluded the state needed to control those resources, and that there was an opportunity to do so. Putin isnt a madman, he simply accepted a calculated risk which turned out not to have been quite as portrayed. This was never an ambition simply to be czar and look good to Russians. It was always about real world resources. If he didnt invade in desperation to shore up his grip on power, then it was never threatened in the first place. There is little reason to think he will lose establishment support for just being the leader he is supposed to be, especially when the reasons for failure were not in his control.
He has to deal with dissent caused by the failed invasion, but Russians on the whole strongly support the concept of foreign invasion and acquision of territory and dont care how many foreigners got killed. This will be the fault of that internal corruption and incompetence, and so a valuable lesson learned for the future. While the west is confirmed as the enemy of all Russians. Putin still their valliant champion.
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 3, 2022 8:35:26 GMT
@mark
When my father died a few years ago we removed over ten bin bags full of unsolicited spam mail from his small one bedroom flat, he was festooned with the stuff it was still arriving at the rate of up to ten items a day after he went into care.
The Royal Mail will actually block this stuff if asked and advised that it's unsolicited.
Doesn't stop the environmental impact of course.
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Post by Danny on Oct 3, 2022 8:42:01 GMT
... They could then say, look, you see these 10,000 extra nurses, doctors, coppers, teachers etc we're getting, they have come from this pot here we've got from Amazon, Uber, Google etc. Ah, but con have been cleverer than that. By leaving the EU and restricting training programs they have ensured there simply arent enough staff to hire. So it will be impossible to spend more on the NHS.
And it will be the fault of those evil foreigners for refusing to come here. Even though we asked them back after leaving the EU to make sure they couldnt come.
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 3, 2022 8:47:29 GMT
Good morning @janus Informative and interesting first post I actually thought that was a bit of a two-faced post from janus. IMHO. |
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Post by robbiealive on Oct 3, 2022 8:48:56 GMT
Poster Makes Dramatic Uturn
Embrace & heed Tory backbenchers bearing promises of rebellion against the leader
[It will of course make it easier for the gang of two to get through the really nasty stuff they are planning.]
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 3, 2022 8:53:40 GMT
There is a massive piece of work which it is essential the Labour Party gets on with. While I anticipate there will be a noticeable recovery in a year or so as inflation falls back and the world economy improves, which con will claim is the first sign of their policy working, we will still be stuck with the effects of Brexit. This drag on the economy is ongoing and will leave the UK doing badly compared to equivalent countries. Possibly very badly. There will be limited money with which to do anything. The situation will be far worse than 97 when labour last came to power. This faltering economy which fails to continue its initial recovery will be blamed by con on the fact lab just became the government. That will be a simplisticly credible attack. There will then follow 5 years of poor performance and con in with a chance again. Assuming Kwarteng's budget doesnt pull off the trick of creating enough illusion of recovery before the deadline of the next election, to deprive lab of that victory at all.
The strategy is the same as for some time. If con win, they get 5 years. If con lose, they leave lab with a mess making a quick return more likely. Ken Clarke was talking the other day about how before an election he had a budget which was good for the country rather than providing a short term boost to feel good which would improve their chances. Con have concluded Clarke's style of budget was wrong, and good for con bad for Uk is always to be preferred.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 8:54:29 GMT
The chat in the media is now about the real terms cut in UC payments, and other big spending cuts, 'to pay for the energy bailout'. Our colin thinks that voters will be relieved to see their bills double, then go no further, I didn't say that. pjw1961 pointed out that 5 of 7 "Mini Budget" proposals were given positive approval ratings in the Opinium Poll. I suggested that it was a huge own goal to have introduced the two receiving criticism-neither of which were trailed by Truss in the leadership campaign. And at a stage -where we now are-BEFORE Kwarteng discloses proposed funding sources-all these 7 proposals are prima facie being offered through more borrowing. And I doubt the average householder being offered two years help with utility bills cares much about that. Clearly when he does complete the package with supply side reforms and funding proposals , IF there are spending cuts which hurt the low paid and vulnerable-that will be a new set of considerations for voters. This morning's u turn on the top rate tax proposal is a signal that Kwarteng is not entirely immune to pressure from his back benchers. Whether it brings any correction in Con. VI I very much doubt. I suspect the damage is done on that score. There is an article in today's Times by Mark Littlewood , of IEA-the "Alma Mater" of TRuss and Kwarteng. His message is that Kwarteng's first job is to show that he can bring borrowing/gdp% down over the medium term -and calm the markets. And that requires the OBR. Until then , TRuss/Kwarteng will just have to suck up the polling collapse-without the confidence of the markets this Chancellor can't do anything. A lesson he appears to have learned the hard way. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 3, 2022 8:58:02 GMT
I wonder whether the Brazilian presidential race yesterday is further evidence of dodgy opinion polls disfiguring elections. They were obviously hopelessly wrong (again!), but to what extent did they influence voting too? That's my concern about them and why I believe they should be banned during campaigns. Did they generate complacency amongst Lula supporters and stimulate greater determination to turn out for Bolansaro voters yesterday? They manage expectation levels too. I think that wasn't a bad result at all for the Brazilian Left and Lula yesterday, but all is despair and disappointment because they/he underperformed the polling. Boost for Bolansaro because he exceeded expectations. Sadly, the expectations were massaged by duff data from opinion polls. The polls weren't too far out for Lula - they were saying 50 or 51% with a MoE of 2% and he got 48%. The problem was they were way out on Bolsonaro, having him down in the thirties when he actually got 43%. Evidence of a 'shy fascist' effect perhaps. People unwilling to admit they were going to vote for someone of his ilk. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Oct 3, 2022 9:01:38 GMT
Anent workhouses
Modern historical research, however, has suggested that for many in the later 19th and early 20th centuries, the workhouse was a welcome relief from poverty, and vulnerable people entered or left it at their own discretion, depending on the economics of their own area. For the elderly, it provided a form of what we would now term sheltered housing.
School history may not be the best basis for making judgments! As is well known, in workhouses families including husbands and wives were separated: histclo.com/insti/work/work.html"When a family entered the workhouse, they were separated. Women were at all times kept separate from the men, including their husbands." That you can even begin to justify workhouses beggars belief. Down here in England the Church wedding service contains the words "Whom God hath joined let no man put asunder." |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 3, 2022 9:20:10 GMT
Supporters of the Government will no doubt be heartened by evidence that Truss is "listening" to her backbenchers and the public at large and that by reversing the proposed 45% tax cut they can now concentrate on all the "popular things" announced in the recent fiscal event.
Leaving aside the rather moot point about whether there was anything particularly good or popular in Kwartang's plan anyway, surely the real damage being done by the reversal of a headline proposal is the impression of shambles and incompetence it gives. Wasn't part of Truss's alleged USP as a politician her supposed Thatcherite resolve and mettle? Whither that now? Her right wing cheerleaders are already sensing weakness. The rocket remains becalmed on the launch pad. No ignition still.
As for the "helping the poorest in our society" energy price cap that I suppose could be deemed popular, I think the Labour attack on that has been very effective. It's a policy of necessity that all governments in countries badly effected by unpayable energy fuel costs have had to implement, and this government has chosen to adopt an approach that loads the cost of financing it on the taxpayer rather than the energy companies. I think that message has struck home amongst what Truss hoped would be instead an appreciative audience for her noble beneficence.
There is another intriguing political factor at play here too. Is the contempt for this government so deep and ingrained now that whatever good deeds they may do over time will go unappreciated and unrewarded? They get zero credit for anything and just further opprobrium for things that go wrong. If so, and I suspect it is, then that is a telltale sign of a dying government on its way out of office.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Oct 3, 2022 9:28:54 GMT
Supporters of the Government will no doubt be heartened by evidence that Truss is "listening" to her backbenchers and the public at large and that by reversing the proposed 45% tax cut they can now concentrate on all the "popular things" announced in the recent fiscal event. Leaving aside the rather moot point about whether there was anything particularly good or popular in Kwartang's plan anyway, surely the real damage being done by the reversal of a headline proposal is the impression of shambles and incompetence it gives. Wasn't part of Truss's alleged USP as a politician her supposed Thatcherite resolve and mettle? Whither that now? Her right wing cheerleaders are already sensing weakness. The rocket remains becalmed on the launch pad. No ignition still. As for the "helping the poorest in our society" energy price cap that I suppose could be deemed popular, I think the Labour attack on that has been very effective. It's a policy of necessity that all governments in countries badly effected by unpayable energy fuel costs have had to implement, and this government has chosen to adopt an approach that loads the cost of financing it on the taxpayer rather than the energy companies. I think that message has struck home amongst what Truss hoped would be instead an appreciative audience for her noble beneficence. There is another intriguing political factor at play here too. Is the contempt for this government so deep and ingrained now that whatever good deeds they may do over time will go unappreciated and unrewarded? They get zero credit for anything and just further opprobrium for things that go wrong. If so, and I suspect it is, then that is a telltale sign of a dying government on its way out of office. Indeed, this idea that the Tories can literally do or say anything or have a terrible leader and then just backtrack, U-turn or change the leader and hey ho it's like wiping the slate clean and everything's dandy again. Labour wouldn't be allowed to get away with anything close to that in a billion years. Irritatingly I think it was true to an extent until relatively recently but I now think that ship has sailed and they're damned whatever they do. Good. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 3, 2022 9:37:08 GMT
Anent workhouses
Modern historical research, however, has suggested that for many in the later 19th and early 20th centuries, the workhouse was a welcome relief from poverty, and vulnerable people entered or left it at their own discretion, depending on the economics of their own area. For the elderly, it provided a form of what we would now term sheltered housing.
School history may not be the best basis for making judgments! As is well known, in workhouses families including husbands and wives were separated: histclo.com/insti/work/work.html"When a family entered the workhouse, they were separated. Women were at all times kept separate from the men, including their husbands." That you can even begin to justify workhouses beggars belief. Down here in England the Church wedding service contains the words "Whom God hath joined let no man put asunder." I think oldnat is also underestimating the stigma that was attached to being forced into the workhouse. The fear of that (and also the dreaded indignity of the 'pauper's funeral') was still evident in my maternal grandparents (born 1908 and 1913 in industrial Lancashire) even though the system had long gone by the time I knew them. It scarred several generations of working class people. It is probably telling that the life-expectancy of those in the workhouse who entered it at 65+ was around 2 years. They had little to live for. |
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Post by alec on Oct 3, 2022 9:44:29 GMT
@janus - I think the environmental issues can have a major impact, in the right circumstances, and if boiled down to readily understandable issues.
I think Conservatives took a reasonably substantial hit over the 'turds on the beach' scandal, which wrapped up the environment, incompetence and looking after big business into a single, simple message to voters.
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