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Post by robbiealive on Oct 2, 2022 12:53:42 GMT
1. Yes, if you constitute a membership organisation which elects its leader under OMOV, then it's democratic to follow the rules. 1. I don't think its democractic for the members under OMOV to impose a leader on millions of lifelong, non-member Labour voters. I don't agree that MPs should not have more wieght in the decision. It wasn't a cabal, which suggests a small inner group of malefactors; it was a much wider rebellion than that, probably the majority of Labour MPs. You repeat my point that Labour would probably have done better in 2017 if the party had been united. The real issue is that choosing a leader solely by OMOV, who is then at odds with the majority of his MPs, didn't work. You have to choose a leader within the wider system that parties have to work in, rather than proclaim the sanctity of membership democracy. How you balance the weight of MPs and the members is tricky. But some attempt has to be made or we end up with Corbyn. Corbyn lost 3 elections, '16, 17, & then '19. He fell out with the MPs or they fell out with him. The post-2016-EU Ref coup was undemocratic. So was Corbyn's crap campaign in the Ref. Every Labour voter I knew was as appalled as I was by his half-hearted efforts -- "oh I would give the EU 7 out of 10" he said, what? in an effing Yes/No campaign. We never forgave him. After '17, I vote for him of course, he should have gone. In '19, I voted again, I knew lifelong Labour voters who stayed at home. It was that bad. Starmer would have won the MPs and the membership. I don't understand how you can reconcile thinking that "its [not] democratic for the members under OMOV to impose a leader on millions of lifelong, non-member Labour voters" whilst thinking that MPs ought to have more weight in the decision. MPs represent a much smaller pool of members - how is that more democratically legitimate? The party should have united behind the democratically elected leader. That it failed to do so is on the parliamentary party and a party apparatus that worked ceaselessly against him (costing the party the chance of winning elections), not the party members. 2016 wasn't an election and if Corbyn was as fundamentally useless and unpopular as his detractors claim, his supposedly lukewarm support of Remain should have been a boon to the campaign. Starmer only won over the membership by deceiving them. 1. The italicised phrase in my screed was not my finest hour but it was 1.45 & I had to do Wordle (3/6). Labour members choosing a leader have a duty to select not just the leader they want but one who millions of Labour and uncommitted voters will support, non-member voters that they represent. If they dont understand that they should abstain. Who was happiest to see Corbyn elected. The Tory High Command. 2. Of course Labour MPs are a small pool in OMOV. But they also represent XXMillion Labour voters. Some of them do have some idea what the voters want. The notion they are in a bubble & the members have their finger on the pulse is debateable. Did MPs or members really grasp what Brexit Labour voters in Stoke, Rochdale, or Redvar wanted? (Corbyn's insight was to understand the Red Wall Labour Leavers more than most). As Moby said above there are good grounds for giving MPs more weight in the choice on the delegate principle. 3. The Party was more or less united until the EU REf. Corbyn was useless. I remember him on Marr, inspecting his finger nails for invisible atoms of reformist impurity, mumbling about 7 out of 10 for the EU, like a dessicated Prof of Social Policy. The point of yr comment 2 above his supposedly lukewarm support of Remain should have been a boon to the campaign. eldues me. If he didnt support Remain, which was Party Policy, then he should have stood aside. Brown in a 5 minute speech did more to rally the Remain vote than Corbyn in weeks. Leaders have to earn their spurs and lead and he failed: hence the maladroit coup which cost us a lot. When Cameron resigned and told Corbyn to do the same, I was with Cameron! 4. I voted for Starmer knowing that he would renege on much of what he said. So did X000s of other members. The people who complain about him are the ROCs and the diffident LOCs. I didn't want Long Bailey and more of the same. He has done his job: held on, not made any gross errors, much harder than it looks: time will tell. I don't automatically share the numerous prefictions on here that Labour have it in the bag or that we can carve up the seat share. Finally. Corbyn was the wrong choice. I'm old: 5 years of Corbyn were wasted years for me. Membership democracy made the wrong choise. I want a system that makes the right one. |
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Post by thexterminatingdalek on Oct 2, 2022 12:54:23 GMT
robbiealiveI think Starmer is a credible leader with a credible team but until he's credible on our future relationship with Europe and accepts the members views on fptp I wouldn't consider rejoining. If we work together on this we can consign the conservative party to the political dustbin and realign politics to reflect the 65%+ share of votes regularly won by progressive parties. Many claimed they were consigned to the political dustbin in 97. At the risk of sounding a bit JiB, without the LibDems leaping into bed with the Tories in 2010 we would have no brexit. If Blair was as clever as everyone seemed to think her was, we'd have pr and wouldn't have had Osborne's austerity either. Labour won't go for pr. A labour landslide, or even overall majority, is the worst imaginable scenario for achieving it. As I said the other day, I expect a few more years of right-wing, apologetic, timid soft left Labour and to live the rest of my days under this lot - again. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 2, 2022 13:57:00 GMT
I don't recall anyone saying that in '97 the Tories after all got a higher percentage of votes than Labour did in 2019 but a virtual wipe out would be different matter.
If the Labour leadership refuses to act on the views of its membership on PR that's actually the Labour party's problem, we all suffer the impact however.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 2, 2022 14:47:32 GMT
It comes to something when I agree with Gove
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 2, 2022 14:49:07 GMT
Ruddy eck two in a row I agree with him
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Post by mercian on Oct 2, 2022 14:56:16 GMT
neiljSo would you vote for him if you were in his constituency?
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Post by davwel on Oct 2, 2022 15:08:47 GMT
Michael Gove certainly had experience of being in a school, Robert Gordon`s College, that had some boys that wouldn`t have got into a selective grammar in England.
One family we knew that paid for a son to attend, found he was falling behind, and eventually was expelled probably bad behaviour adding to his problems. So they had to spend more on travel, plus fees, to put the lad into Gordonstoun.
We agree that it`s best these days to have schools with a similar mix of abilities as in their catchments, whereas 5-plus decades back selective grammars had a useful function. That has been overtaken by wealth allowing families to buy their way into the grammars` catchments, so actually excluding some poorer children for whom the grammar would have brought a good extra ingredient into the children`s way of life.
So on this besides the 45% foolish tax cut, we back Gove.
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Post by hireton on Oct 2, 2022 15:15:19 GMT
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Post by eotw on Oct 2, 2022 15:29:45 GMT
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 2, 2022 15:44:55 GMT
neiljSo would you vote for him if you were in his constituency? Let me think about that...no I agree with him more than I do Truss, would be difficult to agree less, but I agree with Starmer even more. I disagree with Gove on a lot,a lot more than I agree with him. |
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Post by mercian on Oct 2, 2022 15:48:01 GMT
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 2, 2022 15:51:51 GMT
Wasn't difficult decision to be frank, useful to remember even a stopped clock csn be right twice a day |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2022 16:04:03 GMT
Finished reading all the Sunday Times articles and reports on Truss/Kwarteng. Many pages of it.
I reach the conclusion that it wasn't the "unfunded" top rate tax cut which sent sterling to historic lows , and gilt yields to historic highs. £2bn pa for that proposal when the NI and CT changes had been signaled throughout the leadership campaign with no market reaction. And as nothing compared with the potential £150 bn cost of two years energy cost subsidy.
Kwarteng partied with currency traders after the statement in HoC ,who egged him on to more of the same. He left that party and told Kuensberg there would be "more to come". Those traders were heard referring to Kwarteng as a "useful idiot". They shorted the pound and I think helped the collapse in it.
T/K's refusal to publish OBR appraisals . Their insouciance about market volatility. Their open criticism of BoE. Their removal of the top Treasury Civil Servant-along with his network of lines to The City. .......their amateurism and arrogance with no data to check on them. These are the things which I believe caused the Market reaction . In other words Loss of Confidence.
Which once lost is very hard to retrieve.
These two idiots have completely lost the credit which a multi million pound intervention on fuel bills should have brought them.
How stupid is that ?
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Post by robbiealive on Oct 2, 2022 16:30:33 GMT
Will Hutton tells a certain story in the Observer today.
No one cared about the EU until the "genius" of Farage linked the EU to "excess" migration --> UKIP's success, combining right-wing Tory Nationalists with the elderly, whick spooked Cameron and led to the EU Ref --> an opportunity that was siezed by far right Tories, hence Leave won --> thus allowing the inexorable shift to the current right-wing outcome: a libertarian, deregulation, low tax, low welfare, public-sector smashing, rich-enriching nightmare that is Truss's government.
Good to see that the Observer's leading economic commentator is echoing the story long rehearsed by NickP, myself and others on UKPolling 1 & and even 2, mostly by those posters not bogged down in the interminable Brexit bureaucratic proceduralism. The Red Wallers were played, scammed, sold a pup, and they are going to pay the heaviest price.
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Post by moby on Oct 2, 2022 16:33:18 GMT
I'm sure the good sense of the "ordinary people" will win through though in the end and the impending announcements of big changes on the Board of Governors at the Beeb will quickly get your shares up again. Well my US shares are already up lots!
Likewise my US index funds are doing just fine. Can't think why mercian has a problem with his investments? There has been a lot of volatility recently in the UK gilt market though?  |
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Post by alec on Oct 2, 2022 16:41:33 GMT
colin - "These two idiots have completely lost the credit which a multi million pound intervention on fuel bills should have brought them." Oh yes! That one. The one where they agreed to hand tens, possibly hundred of billions of pounds of our taxes to energy companies, completely unfunded, refusing point blank to instigate a windfall profits tax against those same companies making huge and unwarranted profits. That policy alone would have been very hard for them, in a sensible world.
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 2, 2022 16:47:02 GMT
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Post by bardin1 on Oct 2, 2022 16:59:43 GMT
The Ukranians seem to have made a breakthrough to the North West of Kherson. If the reports are true they may be able to cut off the route through from Beryslav, which would make supplying the troops in Kherson very difficult
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 2, 2022 17:04:18 GMT
Its not really a surprise. People are stuck in prison on remand because cases are not being heard. There's not enough doctors to treat patients. Care services have been unable to deliver for decades. I'd hesitate to say there arent enough teachers , but there arent enough competent teachers. It has been con policy for 40 years to cut state services, and in the end that means cut quality of state services.
In discussion today had a local example of a couple of GPs, who intend to continue working as such until their kids finish private school, and then leave the job they now detest. Which illustrates firstly that the state schools could best be described as 'budget' operations. And secondly some things matter more than money. Efficiency savings in medical services have made the job so horrible everyone working in it wants to get out. That can only mean the service will collapse for lack of staff.
Will Truss prop up the failing NHS or just truss it like a turkey for a final demise?
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Post by alec on Oct 2, 2022 17:08:50 GMT
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johntel
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Post by johntel on Oct 2, 2022 17:10:51 GMT
The Ukranians seem to have made a breakthrough to the North West of Kherson. If the reports are true they may be able to cut off the route through from Beryslav, which would make supplying the troops in Kherson very difficult And continuing to make progress in the north after taking Lyman yesterday. It looks like crunch time is coming for Putin, with anti-war sentiment growing and arguments in the military over tactical mistakes. God knows what he'll do now. |
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Post by alec on Oct 2, 2022 17:13:39 GMT
bardin1 - also being reported that Ukraine is pushing east from Lyman to Kreminna.
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Post by mercian on Oct 2, 2022 17:16:32 GMT
Will Hutton tells a certain story in the Observer today. No one cared about the EU until the "genius" of Farage linked the EU to "excess" migration --> UKIP's success, ... That's not true. Farage provided a figurehead and a focus, but remember the Metric Martyrs for instance? They predated Farage's rise, and provoked a lot of resentment. There had been simmering dislike of the EU for many years but no significant party had the balls to stand up for those voters. Farage was inevitable because of that. And yes, I know that the Metric Martyrs were because of the UK's own interpretation of EU rules, but if we weren't in the EU there wouldn't have been a problem. |
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Post by mercian on Oct 2, 2022 17:18:57 GMT
Well my US shares are already up lots!
Likewise my US index funds are doing just fine. Can't think why mercian has a problem with his investments? There has been a lot of volatility recently in the UK gilt market though? So are my US-based investments, as I have a diversified portfolio. And though the overall value was a bit down last time I looked, it's no big deal. It's money I never touch anyway. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 2, 2022 17:21:03 GMT
mercianIt was so " simmering" that European union membership never featured in the top 10 concerns in polling until 2014 When your favoured party ( UKIP not the Tories) and their xenophobic media mouthpieces blatantly lied about both freedom of movement and the imminent entry of Turkey into the European union. But if you lie often enough and loud enough eventually people listen.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 2, 2022 17:30:39 GMT
The Ukranians seem to have made a breakthrough to the North West of Kherson. If the reports are true they may be able to cut off the route through from Beryslav, which would make supplying the troops in Kherson very difficult And continuing to make progress in the north after taking Lyman yesterday. It looks like crunch time is coming for Putin, with anti-war sentiment growing and arguments in the military over tactical mistakes. Starting the war, you mean? Indeed. He might wish to go back to the glory days before he began the invasion, but that isnt possible. The Ukrainians will now seek to recover Crimea too. Calling up more citizens to become soldiers doesnt guarantee him more useful soldiers. Reading some of the links this morning people had provided for blogs, Russia started this war with poorly trained officers and an inflexible command structure which could not withstand communication failures. The situation can only be worse now, and deteriorating steadily. They cannot replace officers, they cannot replace losses of their best equipment. The strategy would seem to be the classic Russian approach, throw enough cannon fodder at it and you can smother the enemy with their bodies. But, as a holding action when his army is now going backwards instead of forwards, what else could Putin have done? I dont believe Putin is a nutter who went out on a limb over ukraine. It obvious ukraine is a valuable resource in terms of commodities. Shoot every last Ukrainian and settle some Russians there, and get those resources which seem to be enough to fund Russia for years. That seems the most likely reason for this war, a hard headed economic decision with full establishment support. 'Its the economy, stupid.' So what to do? The only way to save face would be to say NATO and the West defeated plucky Russia's attempt to rescue their Ukrainian brothers. So maybe he would welcome some actual NATO troops entering the fight, as his excuse for losing. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 2, 2022 17:52:06 GMT
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 2, 2022 18:02:28 GMT
I've been delving in the tables for the Opinium poll and there is an interesting point about the budget. I think it would have spooked the markets anyway for the reasons colin has outlined, which may well have sunk it regardless, but putting that aside it might have been popular with the public had it not been for the folly of those aspects that blatantly favoured the rich. The public liked the rest of it.
Various budget measures in order of net popularity (For/Against = net):
Government will pay to freeze energy bills for households and businesses - 74/11 = +63
Raising the threshold at which those buying a house start paying stamp duty, to £250,000 for most buyers, or £425,000 for first time buyers - 54/22 = +32
Reduce the basic rate of income tax from 20% to 19% - 55/24 = +31
Cancelling the planned 1.25 percentage national insurance rate rise - 54/24 = +30
Cancelling the planned rise in corporation tax rate rise, so that it stays at 19% rather than rise to 25% - 40/34 = +6
Abolish the top rate of tax so that those with an income of more than £150,000 pay 40% on that income instead of 45% - 20/66 = -46
Abolishing the cap on bankers’ bonuses - 17/66 = -49
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Post by RAF on Oct 2, 2022 18:18:37 GMT
I've been delving in the tables for the Opinium poll and there is an interesting point about the budget. I think it would have spooked the markets anyway for the reasons colin has outlined, which may well have sunk it regardless, but putting that aside it might have been popular with the public had it not been for the folly of those aspects that blatantly favoured the rich. The public liked the rest of it. Various budget measures in order of net popularity (For/Against = net): Government will pay to freeze energy bills for households and businesses - 74/11 = +63 Raising the threshold at which those buying a house start paying stamp duty, to £250,000 for most buyers, or £425,000 for first time buyers - 54/22 = +32 Reduce the basic rate of income tax from 20% to 19% - 55/24 = +31 Cancelling the planned 1.25 percentage national insurance rate rise - 54/24 = +30 Cancelling the planned rise in corporation tax rate rise, so that it stays at 19% rather than rise to 25% - 40/34 = +6 Abolish the top rate of tax so that those with an income of more than £150,000 pay 40% on that income instead of 45% - 20/66 = -46 Abolishing the cap on bankers’ bonuses - 17/66 = -49 Very interesting and in a few cases surprising. As the NI rise was meant (ostensibly) to help finance health and social care, you might have thought its removal would be unpopular. Also polling on the corporation tax measure is also surprising. 25% is not excessive for such a tax, and the rise was planned to ensure that corporations contribute more in desperate times. Perhaps those polled considered the positive impsct of the reduction on SMEs, or larger corporations that employ thousands of people? |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2022 18:20:39 GMT
This is not the covid thread.
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