patrickbrian
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These things seem small and undistinguishable, like far off mountains turned into clouds
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Post by patrickbrian on Oct 2, 2022 9:44:30 GMT
I see Michael Gove is quoted today as saying he won't vote for abolishing the 45% income tax, and bankers bonus cap even if it means losing the whip. And I've noticed among the papers the Sun and the Times becoming increasingly ambivalent. Today the Sunday Times front page is openly hostile to Truss/Kwarteng. Is the Murdoch Press turning? Is Michael Gove grooming himself (!) to be the next great saviour of the Tories?
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Oct 2, 2022 9:47:34 GMT
How did we get where we'd are?
There are all sorts of answers I guess but surely the blame goes back to Cameron's Brexit ref. promise. Of course you could go further back to the pressures that led him to make that promise. You might also speculate what might have happened if he hadn't made that commitment.
The machinations after the referendum drove out virtually all'sensible' Tories from their gene pool and denuded it of many potentially good cabinet members and leaders. No wonder they held off pushing Johnson under a truck, they could see there was no water in the well.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 2, 2022 9:49:20 GMT
ptarmigan "Starmer only won over the membership by deceiving them." Corbyn could have only won an election by deceiving the whole UK electorate.They weren't that stupid. That election was all abut Brexit. 2010 was about brexit and all subsequent election. The next one might yet be about brexit, rejoin maybe. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2022 9:52:46 GMT
People will soon see sense. They already have-they are going to throw this government out just as soon as they get an opportunity. Meanwhile you and I will sit and watch the value of our investments fall, at a stage in life where time for correction is limited. I expect you are familiar with the standard advice to holders of a DC pension pot-as you reach your later years switch from equities to gilts for less volatility-how's that looking now ? Telling my children and grandchildren that I remember the 70s isn't going to help them cope with their cost of living increases. They already hated Tories. Now they think they are completely mad. Actually I do think that there is a question of legitimacy with this administration. And I think thats what the astounding change in polling is signifying. As in USA, and Europe, governments are facing a dilemma. Their Central Banks are increasing interest rates to combat inflation. The unspoken truth of this is that Monetary Policy is trading control of inflation for induced Recession. If Governments try too hard to increase spending they induce even tighter Monetary responses from Central Banks. Truss/Kwarteng have decided they will try to avoid recession. She has said so in terms. We don't know yet what supply side reforms they are going to introduce- they decided to headline energy cost subsidy and tax cuts first. And have clearly signaled spending cuts. No one in their right minds is going to think tax cuts for high earners, and public services cuts for ordinary people is an acceptable offering in these circumstances. And the reports of their dismissive , arrogant attitude to key institutions like the Bank of England ,The Treasury and OBR have undermined market confidence-so at present everything they say and do make the likelihood of even higher interest rates probable . All governments are facing this dilemma when faced with their CBs switching to Monetary tightening. But this calls for caution and clear communication in fiscal policy. These two have demonstrated neither. And voters have noticed. And I do wonder whether the massive VI change signals a feeling that this administration has one clear duty in the short time left to it-to help ordinary people through the next two years of inflation ,war and possible recession. And -thus far-they have failed that test . And voters are thinking that they have no right to start experimenting with the economy until voters get to express a view on such ideas.? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2022 10:00:03 GMT
If it is true that a small group of Tory Party members have essentially chosen this Administration without the support of a majority of Tory MPs, then I think two things follow:-
* MPs should choose the Leader in future.
* MPs should vote with their convictions when Kwarteng's final package is revealed with the OBR report on it.
There are noises emerging from the Sky tv interviews this morning indicating that some very senior Tory MPs are thinking hard about this.
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Post by mercian on Oct 2, 2022 10:06:59 GMT
Is Mercian still paying his licence fee to the Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) I wonder? Paying the salaries of dangerous lefties like Tim Davie, Robin Gibb, Laura Kuennsberg, Nick Robinson, Justin Webb, the berks on that ridiculous Newscast that comes on after QT, Alex Forsyth etc etc. I hope he knows that by paying his licence fee he is undermining a Tory Government and fomenting revolution. Of course the tell tale sign of rampant socialism was when the wonderful Andrew Neil left the Corporation. Not content with fronting just about every BBC political programme they ever transmitted, he felt that the woke agenda was curtailing his sword of truth. I pay my licence fee because I am law-abiding, but I do think they should have a subscription service or services. I might pay £5 a month for news only. I accidentally saw a bit of Nick Robinson this morning. The man hadn't even had a shave! I'm by no means a stickler for old-fashioned modes of dress, but not to bother shaving when you're appearing on TV is beyond the pale. It certainly wasn't a beard. I haven't heard of most of the other people you mention. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2022 10:08:10 GMT
I posted recently on the undisclosed difference between the purchase price of the £ 840 bn of Gilts which BoE holds under its QE program ; and their current market value.
ST reports on this today.
It says the figure is £200bn -Loss . !!!!
When the BoE recommences its paused policy of selling its Gilts back into the market these losses will start to crystallise.
The Treasury will have to make transfers to BoE to make good these losses.
It does have some offset-it has received back from BoE so far £124bn of interest payments to the Central Bank.
ST today.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 2, 2022 10:08:30 GMT
I see Michael Gove is quoted today as saying he won't vote for abolishing the 45% income tax, and bankers bonus cap even if it means losing the whip. And I've noticed among the papers the Sun and the Times becoming increasingly ambivalent. Today the Sunday Times front page is openly hostile to Truss/Kwarteng. Is the Murdoch Press turning? Is Michael Gove grooming himself (!) to be the next great saviour of the Tories? Murdoch is personally very right wing but he also likes to be on the winning side. His papers supported Blair in 1997 but also the Australian Labour Party at times, always provided that they weren't too left wing and wouldn't do anything about media ownership rules. Starmer might yet fit the bill. The difficulty could be if he wants to get closer to the EU. Murdoch has always hated the EU because it has not done his bidding in the way the UK/US/Australian governments do. Gove is, of course, well known to be Murdoch's man. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 2, 2022 10:09:27 GMT
As in USA, and Europe, governments are facing a dilemma. Their Central Banks are increasing interest rates to combat inflation. The unspoken truth of this is that Monetary Policy is trading control of inflation for induced Recession. If Governments try too hard to increase spending they induce even tighter Monetary responses from Central Banks. Yeah...about that. First off the BofE has orders to keep inflation at 2% or so? So arguably little room to do anything else, and maybe this applies to the FED? But putting aside nonsense instructions, our current inflation is caused by covid lockdown induced dislocation of the economy and the switch to renewables energy. We are already reversing the switch to renewables (see UK government policy for one), and trying to cut consumption. The energy shortage will normalise. Even China will finally admit lockdowns were a mistake and much will return to normal. It seems likely the driver for all this inflation is going to dissipate (Kwarteng is banking on it). So why are we hiking interest rates, which also injects more short term inflation into the system as borrowing costs rise, when the problem is supposed to be short term self cancelling commodity price rises? So firstly, the rules of the game say voters have no say in this at all for two years. Second, as you say voters are likely to judge based upon their experience over the next two years not what happened last week. Kwarteng is counting on the economy coming good by then. Its often about getting your election at the right point in the economic cycle, or with fixed deadlines forcing the economic cycle to align favourably on the scheduled day of the election. It only has to look good on that one day. Meanwhile con MPs will rebel and that will make the party overall look better. Because its MPs are rebelling on behalf of the concerns of voters. |
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Post by mercian on Oct 2, 2022 10:11:03 GMT
Let's be gentle with poor Mercian, it's been a hard year to be a Tory supporter. I think we should give him a safe space to have his tantrums and throw his dummy out of the pram, bless him 😀 As I've said on numerous occasions I didn't vote Tory at the last election, and probably only once in the last twenty years. I voted (and was a local candidate) for UKIP mostly, but voted Brexit last time because I didn't trust the Tories to deliver Brexit unless they knew that there was still a strong group to their right. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 2, 2022 10:13:45 GMT
I posted recently on the undisclosed difference between the purchase price of the £ 840 bn of Gilts which BoE holds under its QE program ; and their current market value. ST reports on this today. It says the figure is £200bn -Loss . !!!! When the BoE recommences its paused policy of selling its Gilts back into the market these losses will start to crystallise. The Treasury will have to make transfers to BoE to make good these losses. Why? Those bonds were purchased with money created from thin air in the first place, not payments from the treasury. Its a loss of money which never actually existed! Technically I guess the money supply increased by £200bn which cannot now be withdrawn because it has transfereed to other assets. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2022 10:16:31 GMT
I posted recently on the undisclosed difference between the purchase price of the £ 840 bn of Gilts which BoE holds under its QE program ; and their current market value. ST reports on this today. It says the figure is £200bn -Loss . !!!! When the BoE recommences its paused policy of selling its Gilts back into the market these losses will start to crystallise. The Treasury will have to make transfers to BoE to make good these losses. Why? Those bonds were purchased with money created from thin air in the first place, not payments form the treasury. Its a loss of money which never actually existed! Technically I guess the money supply increased by £200bn which cannot now be withdrawn because it has transfereed to other assets. ST article says " The Bank and Treasury did not comment". I'll bet they didn't ! |
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Post by ladyvalerie on Oct 2, 2022 10:18:34 GMT
Let's be gentle with poor Mercian, it's been a hard year to be a Tory supporter. I think we should give him a safe space to have his tantrums and throw his dummy out of the pram, bless him 😀 As I've said on numerous occasions I didn't vote Tory at the last election, and probably only once in the last twenty years. I voted (and was a local candidate) for UKIP mostly, but voted Brexit last time because I didn't trust the Tories to deliver Brexit unless they knew that there was still a strong group to their right. You think like a Tory, you write like a Tory, you behave like a Tory. You probably look like a Tory. You are a bl—-dy Tory.. Banter 😀 |
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Post by hireton on Oct 2, 2022 10:20:48 GMT
Sophy Ridge's interview with Jake Berry MP, Tory Party chair, is woth watching. This gives a flavour of it:
He also attended the infamous post-budget champagne reception which he seemed to imply was the least that could be done for generous party donors and that tax cuts for the rich were entirely justified as Rory are the "drivers" of the economy.
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 2, 2022 10:21:45 GMT
Having watched some "highlights" of today's Truss interview again I've come to a conclusion.
Truss appears to believe that the slower she speaks
Means thoughts will
Magically
Appear
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 2, 2022 10:23:36 GMT
Let's be gentle with poor Mercian, it's been a hard year to be a Tory supporter. I think we should give him a safe space to have his tantrums and throw his dummy out of the pram, bless him 😀 As I've said on numerous occasions I didn't vote Tory at the last election, and probably only once in the last twenty years. I voted (and was a local candidate) for UKIP mostly, but voted Brexit last time because I didn't trust the Tories to deliver Brexit unless they knew that there was still a strong group to their right. Ah bless your little cotton socks, hope you had your Farley rusks this morning. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2022 10:25:51 GMT
A quick Google reveals an FT report on BoE's losses on Gilt holdings.
George Osborne ( remember him ? ) already recognised and acknowledged the possibility :-
"Furthermore, then-chancellor George Osborne wrote about the likely hole ( in BoE balance sheet ) in a 2012 letter to BOE governor Mervyn King:
"At some stage it is likely that the cash flows from the APF ( QE) to HM Treasury will need to be reversed in order to meet the terms of the indemnity, as monetary conditions normalise and Bank Rates rises, or capital losses crystallise as gilts are sold or allowed to redeem without investment. I am happy to reaffirm my predecessor’s commitment that any future losses incurred by the APF will be met in full by the Government. For this reason, net coupon ( interest) income transferred from the APF to HM Treasury should be used solely to benefit the public finances and reduce debt." "
FT
July 2022
my brackets
Over to you Kwarteng-another load of debt coming your way.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 2, 2022 10:28:04 GMT
Sophy Ridge's interview with Jake Berry MP, Tory Party chair, is woth watching. This gives a flavour of it: He also attended the infamous post-budget champagne reception which he seemed to imply was the least that could be done for generous party donors and that tax cuts for the rich were entirely justified as Rory are the "drivers" of the economy. I'm not sure mentioning that property developers were also present helped much |
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Post by leftieliberal on Oct 2, 2022 10:44:55 GMT
Right in my assessment a shambles by interviewee and interviewer. Having seen Steve Coogan on the Newscast show I referenced in the last thread ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/53535 I think it is just a pity that we didn't have the Liz Truss interview by Alan Partridge for North Norfolk Digital Radio broadcast instead. At least it would have made us all laugh! |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Oct 2, 2022 10:48:47 GMT
I know some here believe the voters have some innate collective wisdom and shouldn't be criticized but voter ignorance and stupidity is a real problem I think as these people have power over our lives.
There's an article on the Guardian site this morning of vox pops in Worcester.
One woman is a teacher but thinks the mini budget is a good idea as her partner runs a bar and somehow she thinks this will help him employ more people. The fact that people won't be able to afford to go out to his bar doesn't of course occur to her. She says her mortgage payments may skrocket but that won't stop her voting Tory. She's sure that once Truss 'comes out of hiding' that she'll sort it all out...
What can you do when faced with this kind of self-destructive delusion?
Her school will soon have no money for anything. I wouldn't let her anywhere near my child.
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barbara
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Post by barbara on Oct 2, 2022 11:06:51 GMT
It has now been officialy confirmed. Liz Truss is a woman with hidden shallows. If I hear her say "the fact is Laura" one more time I am likely to break the TV. I think the question that should have been asked of Truss is, " If you really believe in growth above everything else then why are you not proposing we rejoin the single market and customs union which experts have predicted will increase GDP by x%" The very large elephant in the room . |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2022 11:07:36 GMT
So, the new PM has 'advised' the new King not to attend the COP 27 conference. That's this Government's relationship with the monarchy pretty starkly defined from the get go, then.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2022 11:25:39 GMT
I remember a few weeks ago people were thinking Johnson was safe because 'who else was there?'... Liz Truss has answered that question.
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Post by mercian on Oct 2, 2022 11:29:15 GMT
As I've said on numerous occasions I didn't vote Tory at the last election, and probably only once in the last twenty years. I voted (and was a local candidate) for UKIP mostly, but voted Brexit last time because I didn't trust the Tories to deliver Brexit unless they knew that there was still a strong group to their right. You think like a Tory, you write like a Tory, you behave like a Tory. You probably look like a Tory. You are a bl—-dy Tory.. Banter 😀 That reminds me I must get Jeeves to polish my monocle. Actually I've voted for all sorts of parties over the years including Natural Law (the yogic flyers) at least once. |
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Oct 2, 2022 11:29:56 GMT
I'm sure the good sense of the "ordinary people" will win through though in the end and the impending announcements of big changes on the Board of Governors at the Beeb will quickly get your shares up again. Well my US shares are already up lots!
I thought it was only the pensioners (mostly Tory voting) that watched the Beeb[1], hence the antipathy for anything LoC. So when I see news of the strikes from time-to-time I notice the management now and again 'amend their offers' while the striking workers 'demand more money.' :-)
[1] My kids certainly don't. I, alas have to put up with the TV being on when Mrs Alurqa watches Strictly or Ambulance Chasers North West, or Clap for A&E, or whatever other inane programme appeals to the old. But I have headphones, so I can at least find something more interesting to watch or listen to.
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Post by robbiealive on Oct 2, 2022 12:05:19 GMT
[quote author=" robbiealive " It's interesting that at your point 3 you don't say you voted for a candidate but AGAINST Corbyn it points to one of the Labour Party's major problems that of factionalism where an almost religious belief states a member of the same party is more your enemy than other parties. This applies to all wings. You re hanging me for a word. I am not a factionalist. In 2015 I voted for Y Cooper because, inter alia, a Lib Dem friend of mine suggested Chauvo Cameron would find it difficult to deal with a woman. I don't in the least subscribe to a religious belief . . .member of the same party as above. Bl--dy nonsense sport. I have voted Labout for fifty years & encourage others to do the same. My favourite was Brown but I voted for all the others without hesitation. I leave that to Momentum twerps who tell us Blair was just another Tory or the LOC hand-wringers on here who keep relating their intestinal moral qualms about voting for Starmer. Not that I bracket them, decent guys one and all, with Momentum's views. I voted for Corbyn and even campaigned for him in 2017. I didnt in 2019 because I knew we had lost and knew people were being abused on the famous doorstep for doing so. I just knew Corvyn was the wrong choice in 2015 and I don't apologise for being right. |
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Post by robbiealive on Oct 2, 2022 12:18:34 GMT
What you imply is: that if Truss had not diverged from the Manifesto, her succession would be legitimate, contrary to Caroline. Yes, I agree with that - hence no real problem with Wilson/Callaghan, Thatcher/Major, Blair/Brown, Cameron/May or May/Johnson changes. But I will repeat that what Truss is trying to do is 'a affront to democracy' however technically legal it might be. All we can do is hope enough Tory MPs grow a backbone to stop her, whether out of principle or self-interest. After all, if a party can simply rip up its manifesto then how do any of us know what we are voting for in an election? That has dangerous implications for public trust in the whole concept of democracy. We agree! I think Truss has diverged enough from the 2019 manifesto to be seen as having blatantly transgressed what passes for a constitution in this country. She also has the absolute certainty of someone who is weak, out of her depth and inadequate. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 2, 2022 12:22:58 GMT
robbiealive I Share your view. I remained in the party after Corbyn was first elected , having voted for Yvette Cooper and stayed in the hope that the party would regain its senses and had another go at getting rid of him. After that failed gave it up as a lost cause for now. I think Starmer is a credible leader with a credible team but until he's credible on our future relationship with Europe and accepts the members views on fptp I wouldn't consider rejoining. I will as a liberal democrat member probably vote Labour given their recent polling improvement as the most likely party to remove our Tory mp,but it's a tactical decision as a liberal democrat outside of Sheffield I can't think of a single constituency in play where the choice is Labour v Lib dems under fptp it is clear which progressive party has the best chance of removing the Tories, in around 70%, outside of Scotland of the seats it's clearly labour. If we work together on this we can consign the conservative party to the political dustbin and realign politics to reflect the 65%+ share of votes regularly won by progressive parties.
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Post by mandolinist on Oct 2, 2022 12:52:58 GMT
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Post by shevii on Oct 2, 2022 12:53:39 GMT
MPs electing new leaders just leads to an inward looking circle and a closed shop regime that is less flexible to change as events change. Both Blair and Johnson (and Corbyn/Starmer) manipulated candidate selection, be it with Johnson withdrawing the whip to remainer rebels or Blair, Corbyn, Starmer doing it via NEC "vetting" and/or imposed candidates for by elections. And in both parties, MPs still decide the final candidates for meeting thresholds with rules more or less decided on by Party leaders.
I think people are being a bit critical of membership voting like the members are necessarily more out of touch than the MPs in their Westminster bubbles. The people doing so are basically saying this because "ah we ended up with Corbyn" or "Ah we ended up with Truss when the MPs would have gone for Sunak and I like Sunak more", but picking out two examples doesn't make it true in general.
Labour members voted Corbyn to reset the party from one that claimed it was going to be tougher than the Tories on benefits, but it would have been unnecessary if there had been a bit more democracy in the first place as there would have been a subtle shift from New Labour much sooner if MPs and candidates had to take note of people outside of their bubble. Labour MPs did undermine even Miliband I think on various policies he wanted to pursue that might have helped Labour in 2015. Control one of the two parties and eventually your faction will get lucky as the other main party implodes but meanwhile none of the above and not voting increase.
Another reason why PR would help as politicians of the big two parties would realise they need to adapt otherwise they literally face extinction.
So yes the members can get it wrong but just as likely the MPs would, and eventually the members will work out something different (Corbyn to Starmer). I'm sure if Truss fails as seems likely the Tory members will re-evaluate their views and if they don't then Tories lose 3 elections before they come to their senses. Interesting of course with Truss that she more or less said what she was going to do in the leadership campaign- tax cuts and more borrowing so the Tory members have only themselves to blame rather than being conned.
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