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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2022 8:50:18 GMT
If this article really does accurately reflect Labour thinking on how to deal with Truss the PM, then I think it's a sensible approach. There is a danger that in the rush to belittle and mock her, her political strengths and potential appeal may be overlooked. That doesn't mean fearing her, because there are clear weaknesses to exploit, but it does mean recognising her political skill. Self evidently, you don't get to be PM without having your political wits about you. I always think in politics that it's a better approach to overrate your opponent rather than underestimate them. It's quite possible that the flaws Truss has revealed in her political career so far, and particularly during the leadership contest, and her misguided views on many issues, lead to her being a disastrous PM. Once installed in Downing Street, however, and with the levers of power in her hands, she may prove a more formidable opponent than first thought. Accordingly, Labour are right to take her seriously and to think about the best strategies to take her down. I detect a tenacious street fighter in Truss who may well be a bit smarter than the lampooners are currently making out. www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/05/ideological-strength-could-be-liz-trusss-key-weakness-hopes-labourAn interesting post. If I had written "There is a danger that in the rush to belittle and mock her, her political strengths and potential appeal may be overlooked." and "Once installed in Downing Street, however, and with the levers of power in her hands, she may prove a more formidable opponent than first thought."; the chorus of -"aha-we knew you were an inveterate Tory voter" would have been deafening. For the moment I read that Truss is thought to be both ideologically certain, and unpredictably changeable. I observe that she is capable of defending tax cuts which are not progressive , and reneging on a pledge to alter the BoE's mandate . How she marries her certainties with the economic and fiscal certainties which will face her , will be the test of her Premiership. Margaret Thatcher ?-or Theresa May ?. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 5, 2022 8:53:56 GMT
@danny Thatcher levelled up millions by selling publicly owned housing at a loss to the then occupiers while insuring that future generations of renters would be priced out of affordable accommodation by not replacing the lost stock. Society would be immeasurably better if our elected representatives were not politicians. There ought to be a law that ordinary citizens must submit themselves for election by mandate. Let's face it, a parliament made up thus couldn't do any worse. Some people argue that there should be more use of sortition, where people are randomly picked to serve, like jury service. Some argue using it to replace the House of Lords. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SortitionRegarding selling off council housing: if Labour (or indeed LibDems) make sure to replace the housing that was sold off once they get in power, then the effect of selling it off is ameliorated. If they don’t, then you get that right wing ratchet again. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Sept 5, 2022 8:55:00 GMT
One of the biggest issues for Truss is how she pays for all her promises and at the same time gives tax cuts.
The numbers just don't add up, something will have to give.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2022 9:01:47 GMT
Times reports that Sholz is going for a basic discounted allowance for energy consumers , with stiffer prices for additional consumption. Funded by " a windfall levy on producers that amass excess profits by generating electricity from comparatively cheap sources, such as wind and nuclear power, then selling it at much higher market rates inflated by the cost of gas."
ie-their energy market prices appear to work like ours.
Times headline says Truss will freeze the cap. Presumably this is the model proposed by the companies-funded by a multi year bridging loan. So the key question is-who funds the repayments?. What mix between companies ( windfall taxes) / taxpayers / future consumers.
Times prices the German package at £56bn and putative UK freeze at " up to" £100bn . It isn't clear in either case what period is proposed and covered by those costs.
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Post by crossbat11 on Sept 5, 2022 9:04:08 GMT
colin
You know me by now; generous to a fault!
What I'm really doing, in a slightly devil's advocate sort of way, is positing the thought that Truss's cartoon caricature may be some way from the reality of how she performs in office and her innate political expertise.
Of course, I don't rule out the possibility that she may be every bit as disastrous as her many detractors, both inside and outside of the Tory Party, think she will be. We're all in trouble if that's the case.
The other point of my post was that I thought it reassuring that Labour were taking her seriously and preparing accordingly.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 5, 2022 9:05:27 GMT
One of the biggest issues for Truss is how she pays for all her promises and at the same time gives tax cuts. The numbers just don't add up, something will have to give. Assuming she’s that bothered about debt, which seemed more Sunak’s line and may have been rejected by members if she gets elected. Pointed out recently that Truss seems to be more approving of Minford, who doesn’t as much mind debt. Johnson was the same. If Truss is elected and carries on in the same vein, it might suggest the right have lost control of the party to some extent, which has allowed a more Keynesian approach, as with the pandemic. I think I read the energy measures would cost similar to Covid furlough, but our debt is currently not as bad as the likes of France and Italy etc., and we control our own currency. Keeping lower debt is more a concern of the smaller state folk, they use it as an excuse to sell state assets off. But our debt has been rather more alarming in the past snd we still did ok. (There is increasing pressure to move leftwards anyway, if you look at polling on things like nationalisation of utilities and how even a majority of Tories are now in favour). |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Sept 5, 2022 9:07:53 GMT
You can replace the existing radiator valves and configure your own zones based on how you use the house, rather than have the zones defined by the pipe work. All presumably radio controlled, so great news for battery manufacturers.
On which note...have people noticed how batteries have no standardised indication of the power they deliver? All sorts of different names and prices, but no way to tell if a battery costing twice as much will last twice as long.
This is a national scandal which will have cost a fortune. i am reminded of an anecdote about spies in WW2. A battery company was asked if it could produce much longer lasting batteries for the war effort. They said yes.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2022 9:14:31 GMT
colin You know me by now; generous to a fault! What I'm really doing, in a slightly devil's advocate sort of way, is positing the thought that Truss's cartoon caricature may be some way from the reality of how she performs in office and her innate political expertise. Of course, I don't rule out the possibility that she may be every bit as disastrous as her many detractors, both inside and outside of the Tory Party, think she will be. We're all in trouble if that's the case. The other point of my post was that I thought it reassuring that Labour were taking her seriously and preparing accordingly. Indubitably ! You would have been the first in the queue to tell me you never trusted a word I say.  More seriously I think you are right to advise a bit of wait and see. A UKPR2 peopled solely by the drearily predictable knee jerkers would be a truly depressing place. And I wouldn't put Starmer in that camp-I'm sure he will take her seriously. The circumstances remain utterly daunting though -for any leader-don't they ? |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 5, 2022 9:15:04 GMT
More of the problems of leaving things to capital and regulatory capture, from the Telegraph:
Water watchdog’s independence in question as revolving door with polluting private firms revealed
Calls to clamp down on cosy relationship that sees nearly all major water companies in England employing former Ofwat regulators
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‘At least seven of the nine water and sewerage companies currently have senior staff in regulatory or strategic roles who have previously worked for Ofwat, the industry regulator.
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Dieter Helm, a former government adviser, said the exchange of staff between water companies and their regulator had led to “a huge emerging consensus” and questioned whether “this rather cosy world of close relationships is good and healthy for regulation”.”
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Post by Mark on Sept 5, 2022 9:15:09 GMT
That sounds horrific! Sadly, the link doesn't work here, I just get a blank page with a small blue "G" in the middle of the screen. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Sept 5, 2022 9:24:15 GMT
One of the biggest issues for Truss is how she pays for all her promises and at the same time gives tax cuts. The numbers just don't add up, something will have to give. ,
Truss does not take me as the type of politician that ponders over the details, and recent political events would have done little to move her towards a more thorough planning approach. I suspect she will seek to come across as bold and decisive, will make a couple of big decisions/policy changes early (which wont be particularly thought through) and if they land well and the polls look good in early 23' she will go to the country early. If they don't she will just hold on to power for as long as possible and hope for the best.
The Tories still have the asset of a right-wing dominated news media, no real right-wing alternative party, a fractured opposition (Labour/SNP/LD/Greens etc) who can be guaranteed to take limps out of each other, as well as more money than anyone else. So even with Truss's obvious draw backs she's always still going to be in with a shout.
(ps remember not everyone has seen the Cheese clip) |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Sept 5, 2022 9:30:39 GMT
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Post by Mark on Sept 5, 2022 9:36:33 GMT
Nope....still nothing but the "G" (so, it's going *somewhere* rather than a dead link). My guess would be that it's not playing nice with my ad-bocker.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2022 9:42:06 GMT
509 (0.4%) spoiled ballot papers in the 2019 Tory leader contest. Wonder if it will be significantly more this time!
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Post by alec on Sept 5, 2022 9:51:09 GMT
Truss reportedly looking to announce a 12 month energy freeze. This is likely to give her something of a bounce, unless the negativity of the campaign has created such a scale of damage to her brand.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 5, 2022 10:00:56 GMT
Truss reportedly looking to announce a 12 month energy freeze. This is likely to give her something of a bounce, unless the negativity of the campaign has created such a scale of damage to her brand. It might help her to try and outflank Starmer, like Johnson wanted to do with the windfall tax measures etc., and if Starmer sets a low bar, that will be easier to do. It will be interesting to see how much of the existing poll slide is sticky and hard to shift. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2022 10:05:29 GMT
Truss reportedly looking to announce a 12 month energy freeze. This is likely to give her something of a bounce, unless the negativity of the campaign has created such a scale of damage to her brand. If so -28m households X difference between current cap £1971 and Cornwall Insight estimate for April 1 cap £6616 = £130 bnExcluding :- *Wholesale Price increase/decrease effect between April 2023 and Oct 1 2023 * Support for business -if any. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2022 10:07:55 GMT
Truss reportedly looking to announce a 12 month energy freeze. This is likely to give her something of a bounce, unless the negativity of the campaign has created such a scale of damage to her brand. If so -28m households X difference between current cap £1971 and Cornwall Insight estimate for April 1 cap £6616 = £130 bnExcluding :- *Wholesale Price increase/decrease effect between April 2023 and Oct 1 2023 * Support for business -if any. Support for business is a biggie. We could otherwise have mass highly visible closures in two years. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 5, 2022 10:12:05 GMT
If so -28m households X difference between current cap £1971 and Cornwall Insight estimate for April 1 cap £6616 = £130 bnExcluding :- *Wholesale Price increase/decrease effect between April 2023 and Oct 1 2023 * Support for business -if any. Support for business is a biggie. We could otherwise have mass highly visible closures in two years. We are also ramping up wind energy a lot, and quite quickly, and the better we do on things like that, the more this will be a blip. (Dealing with intermittency is an issue but read the other day about energy providers wanting to use hydrogen generated from spare wind energy instead of natural gas to cover shortfalls. Not a new idea, but significant if energy providers are now looking to do it. Hydrogen production is supposed to be ramping up, so we shall see…) |
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Post by alec on Sept 5, 2022 10:15:54 GMT
Patriotic flavours? Whatever next - /photo/1
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Post by wb61 on Sept 5, 2022 10:33:12 GMT
Survation
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Post by wb61 on Sept 5, 2022 10:33:51 GMT
and if Liz Truss is leader
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Post by hireton on Sept 5, 2022 10:42:55 GMT
and if Liz Truss is leader Well, it will be interesting to see if Truss has a negative polling bounce ( is there a word for that?) if /when she becomes PM. |
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Post by davwel on Sept 5, 2022 10:52:30 GMT
@ Danny:
The National Trust does not have any properties in Scotland.
But sometimes it appeals for money from Scots without making people here aware that all their contributions go to England and Wales.
Plenty other English bodies try this ruse, like the i newspaper with its Xmas Appeal 2021. They wouldn`t even print a correction when I complained.
Imagine the outcry in England if, for example, a Franch cycling body appealed for cash to make safe cycle lanes without giving an indication that they were a French outfit and all the money would be spent in France
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Post by Old Southendian on Sept 5, 2022 10:53:15 GMT
Well, it will be interesting to see if Truss has a negative polling bounce ( is there a word for that?) if /when she becomes PM. Ah, but when should we measure the bounce (positive or negative) from? No doubt officially it'll be today, but most people have been assuming that she'll be PM for the past month or so, so you could backdate it to end of July. Conservative VI has already been drifting down since then, perhaps as people started to contemplate the future PM. |
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Post by graham on Sept 5, 2022 10:56:56 GMT
crossbat11 I take Truss seriously I think she's a serious danger to the economy a serious danger to our remaining legacy European union rights , a serious danger to the poorest 60% of the population and a serious danger to those who don't think delusional right wing wishful thinking trumps reality. But frankly I honestly can't see that more exposure to Truss will do anything other than improve the chances of progressive parties. Sadly Truss represents one of the twenty safest tory seats in the country and even the cull of the inept sleaze merchants that's hopefully coming is unlikely to carry her off however richly she deserves defenestration. Strange to think that Norfolk SW was a Labour-held seat until 1964 when it was gained by the Tories against the national trend. |
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Post by davwel on Sept 5, 2022 11:03:10 GMT
I hope Truss is thinking about her footwear for the Balmoral visit.
The lawns in front of the Castle will be too soggy for high heels after this weekend`s downpours, and more rain is forecast tomorrow with a thunderstorm at 12 noon.
So someone will have to go ahead with the heels for her to put on before walking the corridor for the meeting with HMQ.
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Post by peterbell on Sept 5, 2022 11:21:53 GMT
Well, it will be interesting to see if Truss has a negative polling bounce ( is there a word for that?) if /when she becomes PM. Ah, but when should we measure the bounce (positive or negative) from? No doubt officially it'll be today, but most people have been assuming that she'll be PM for the past month or so, so you could backdate it to end of July. Conservative VI has already been drifting down since then, perhaps as people started to contemplate the future PM. Old Southendian - while I agree Con vote has been dropping in the last few weeks, the fact that Survation have issued 2 polls on the same day showing the Con vote falling 7% with Trusstless as PM then I would suggest that polls in the first week or two will definitely show a further drop in Con VI. |
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Post by bardin1 on Sept 5, 2022 11:29:15 GMT
I hope Truss is thinking about her footwear for the Balmoral visit. The lawns in front of the Castle will be too soggy for high heels after this weekend`s downpours, and more rain is forecast tomorrow with a thunderstorm at 12 noon. So someone will have to go ahead with the heels for her to put on before walking the corridor for the meeting with HMQ. The Conservative party should find no problem supplying a couple of old heels |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2022 11:35:02 GMT
The whole Sunak and Truss running out in front of cheering, placard-waving supporters at the final hustings, shouting 'thank you Wembley' like it's a boxing match is horrific! How embarrassing (especially considering the seriousness of the situation the eventual winner will find themselves thrust into). I hadn't seen it before as have been trying to avoid the pair of them but the BBC just showed it on their campaign montage. What have we become? A shit America?  |
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