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Post by shevii on Aug 31, 2022 19:27:02 GMT
or maybe he does and it's all part of the cunning plan ! If that was a serious stance from Starmer you'd have to wonder whether this was a wise move to piss of some of the voters that might be more naturally Labour. We all get it that Starmer not appearing too left wing and getting grief from "lefties" might appeal to "soft Tories" but I reckon traditional "soft Tories" (like Colin for example) are a bit of a dying breed and that Johnson got his majority from a different breed of soft Tories who wanted change via brexit but are also open to quite radical policies to make their lives better. Meanwhile there's a growing demographic who can't get on the housing ladder, perhaps a student loan hanging over their heads as well, and in insecure employment increasingly into middle age as the career jobs disappear. Also another group who ought to be in the Labour camp but don't see politics changing anything because no politician appears to be offering them anything so move into the "will not vote" category. Owen Jones and "lefties" in general might not fully represent any of those groups but I would suggest there is a demographic there which Blair would not have written off just to make a point to soft Tories that probably don't exist in greater numbers these days than "the left".
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 31, 2022 19:34:40 GMT
I very much agree with those who urge geat caution when relying on polling crossbreaks. The Scotland data quoted - SNP 27 Lab 25 Con 19 LD 13 - sounds rather unlikely in terms of current party standings there. Who are the missing 16%? I do,however, see a likely GE result next time with SNP in the 35% - 40% range and Labour polling 25% - 30%. That should imply a quite significant Labour advance on the 2019 outcome. There is no actual polling evidence so far to support that though. Currently the Labour ceiling looks more like 25% and the SNP floor probably over 40%. That would only net Labour 2 or 3 seats at most.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 31, 2022 19:35:51 GMT
or maybe he does and it's all part of the cunning plan ! If that was a serious stance from Starmer you'd have to wonder whether this was a wise move to piss of some of the voters that might be more naturally Labour. We all get it that Starmer not appearing too left wing and getting grief from "lefties" might appeal to "soft Tories" but I reckon traditional "soft Tories" (like Colin for example) are a bit of a dying breed and that Johnson got his majority from a different breed of soft Tories who wanted change via brexit but are also open to quite radical policies to make their lives better. Meanwhile there's a growing demographic who can't get on the housing ladder, perhaps a student loan hanging over their heads as well, and in insecure employment increasingly into middle age as the career jobs disappear. Also another group who ought to be in the Labour camp but don't see politics changing anything because no politician appears to be offering them anything so move into the "will not vote" category. Owen Jones and "lefties" in general might not fully represent any of those groups but I would suggest there is a demographic there which Blair would not have written off just to make a point to soft Tories that probably don't exist in greater numbers these days than "the left". It’s a not unfamiliar line from Starmer, the “I don’t have to listen to him” thing - he did it with the pub landlord. The lawyer used to asking the questions, and not so keen on answering to an electorate. Worse, he clearly has a chance to move at least somewhat left, esp. since the press are now more ok with some of it,* and yet he’s moved right and risks being outflanked by Tories again. Johnson would I think have been likely to outflank Starmer’s energy plan, like he did the windfall tax, both nicked by Lab somewhat from LDs. Not sure if Truss will… how much of what she is saying currently is just for the membership. She has the opportunity though. * Guardian pushing nationalisation again the other day in another editorial. “The Guardian view on broken markets: time to take back control” www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/29/the-guardian-view-on-broken-markets-time-to-take-back-control
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Aug 31, 2022 19:41:10 GMT
As well as Altrincham there are Waitrose stores at Cheadle, Wilmslow, Poynton and Alderley Edge. There are also Little Waitrose Stores at Knutsford, Shell at Bowden and Shell at Phoenix. There are full size stores at Buxton, Northwich and Sandbach. North of Manc the first store is at Leyland.
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Post by pete on Aug 31, 2022 19:45:10 GMT
I dare you to watch it and not have a tear in your eye. Go on , I dare you.
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Post by robbiealive on Aug 31, 2022 19:59:49 GMT
or maybe he does and it's all part of the cunning plan ! If that was a serious stance from Starmer you'd have to wonder whether this was a wise move to piss of some of the voters that might be more naturally Labour. We all get it that Starmer not appearing too left wing and getting grief from "lefties" might appeal to "soft Tories" but I reckon traditional "soft Tories" (like Colin for example) are a bit of a dying breed and that Johnson got his majority from a different breed of soft Tories who wanted change via brexit but are also open to quite radical policies to make their lives better. Meanwhile there's a growing demographic who can't get on the housing ladder, perhaps a student loan hanging over their heads as well, and in insecure employment increasingly into middle age as the career jobs disappear. Also another group who ought to be in the Labour camp but don't see politics changing anything because no politician appears to be offering them anything so move into the "will not vote" category. Owen Jones and "lefties" in general might not fully represent any of those groups but I would suggest there is a demographic there which Blair would not have written off just to make a point to soft Tories that probably don't exist in greater numbers these days than "the left". Oh come off it sport. Did you actually listen to the clip. Jones was ranting & abusive: he looked & sounded a little tired & emotional. Was Starmer supposed to take that seriously. Moreover, everyone is obsessed (disclaimer: this term is not meant to indicate that people holding these views are mentally fragile & in danger of an imminent psychosis) with the Tory-Labour switchers. I only look in detail at the Yougov polls, but they show that (a) cf 2019, there are far more Lib-Dem-Labour switchers, than Tory ones. Labour are never going to get that many Tory switchers, but they need Lib-Dem support in many constituencies, e.g., in Brady's seat I mentioned above. (b) Women are much more inclined to support Starmer than the Tories, and Labour need to hang on to that vote by a careful attention to education:welfare: child-care: NHS issues.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 31, 2022 20:07:22 GMT
If that was a serious stance from Starmer you'd have to wonder whether this was a wise move to piss of some of the voters that might be more naturally Labour. We all get it that Starmer not appearing too left wing and getting grief from "lefties" might appeal to "soft Tories" but I reckon traditional "soft Tories" (like Colin for example) are a bit of a dying breed and that Johnson got his majority from a different breed of soft Tories who wanted change via brexit but are also open to quite radical policies to make their lives better. Meanwhile there's a growing demographic who can't get on the housing ladder, perhaps a student loan hanging over their heads as well, and in insecure employment increasingly into middle age as the career jobs disappear. Also another group who ought to be in the Labour camp but don't see politics changing anything because no politician appears to be offering them anything so move into the "will not vote" category. Owen Jones and "lefties" in general might not fully represent any of those groups but I would suggest there is a demographic there which Blair would not have written off just to make a point to soft Tories that probably don't exist in greater numbers these days than "the left". Oh come off it sport. Did you actually listen to the clip. Jones was ranting & abusive: he looked & sounded a little tired & emotional. Was Starmer supposed to take that seriously. Moreover, everyone is obsessed (disclaimer: this term is not meant to indicate that people holding these views are mentally fragile & in danger of an imminent psychosis) with the Tory-Labour switchers. I only look in detail at the Yougov polls, but they show that (a) cf 2019, there are far more Lib-Dem-Labour switchers, than Tory ones. Labour are never going to get that many Tory switchers, but they need Lib-Dem support in many constituencies, e.g., in Brady's seat I mentioned above. (b) Women are much more inclined to support Starmer than the Tories, and Labour need to hang on to that vote by a careful attention to education:welfare: child-care: NHS issues. Starmer will have known well in advance exactly what he was going to get from the predictable Jones and will have known exactly how to handle him.
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Post by robbiealive on Aug 31, 2022 20:12:14 GMT
As well as Altrincham there are Waitrose stores at Cheadle, Wilmslow, Poynton and Alderley Edge. There are also Little Waitrose Stores at Knutsford, Shell at Bowden and Shell at Phoenix. There are full size stores at Buxton, Northwich and Sandbach. North of Manc the first store is at Leyland. Ha ha. Sounds like a roll-call of Tory-held constituencies to me! Most of them are in Cheshire not G Manchester, & everyone knows those of areas of Cheshire are part of a Home County that somehow got unmoored & drifted north west. Even Leyland is in Tory safe seat, South Ribble. I don't go virtually any of these places. I thought Waitrose shoppers were supposed to support Starmer!
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2022 20:12:45 GMT
robbiealive“ Oh come off it sport. Did you actually listen to the clip. Jones was ranting & abusive.” And repetitive. His “Waitrose” comment was utterly pathetic. Firstly, I don’t know any of my Labour voting friends or relatives who shop at Waitrose and secondly, are Labour supposed to reject votes from people who do shop at Waitrose, for whatever reason. I’ve no idea what point he was making although, clearly, some form of inverted snobbery was at work there.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 31, 2022 20:15:30 GMT
As well as Altrincham there are Waitrose stores at Cheadle, Wilmslow, Poynton and Alderley Edge. There are also Little Waitrose Stores at Knutsford, Shell at Bowden and Shell at Phoenix. There are full size stores at Buxton, Northwich and Sandbach. North of Manc the first store is at Leyland. Ha ha. Sounds like a roll-call of Tory-held constituencies to me! Most of them are in Cheshire not G Manchester, & everyone knows those of areas of Cheshire are part of a Home County that somehow got unmoored & drifted north west. Even Leyland is in Tory safe seat, South Ribble. I don't go virtually any of these places. I thought Waitrose shoppers were supposed to support Starmer! Well just for the hell of it we’ve got two Waitrose’s in very safe Labour Oxford and more of them in LibDem Oxford West and Abingdon. I like ‘em. Don’t do our main shopping there but pleasant to hang in and get a few nice (if increasingly expensive) bits and bobs. Definitely too many elderly DM readers in attendance but I enjoy occasionally calmly pointing out to them that they should read something else for the sake of their health and sanity! Generally just get a befuddled look in return..
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Post by graham on Aug 31, 2022 20:21:43 GMT
I very much agree with those who urge geat caution when relying on polling crossbreaks. The Scotland data quoted - SNP 27 Lab 25 Con 19 LD 13 - sounds rather unlikely in terms of current party standings there. Who are the missing 16%? I do,however, see a likely GE result next time with SNP in the 35% - 40% range and Labour polling 25% - 30%. That should imply a quite significant Labour advance on the 2019 outcome. There is no actual polling evidence so far to support that though. Currently the Labour ceiling looks more like 25% and the SNP floor probably over 40%. That would only net Labour 2 or 3 seats at most. I believe that Survation has had Labour on 27% with SNP circa 41%.. That would imply a swing to Labour there in excess of 6% and the prospect of the party returning to the 7 seats won in 2017.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2022 20:23:53 GMT
Ha ha. Sounds like a roll-call of Tory-held constituencies to me! Most of them are in Cheshire not G Manchester, & everyone knows those of areas of Cheshire are part of a Home County that somehow got unmoored & drifted north west. Even Leyland is in Tory safe seat, South Ribble. I don't go virtually any of these places. I thought Waitrose shoppers were supposed to support Starmer! Well just for the hell of it we’ve got two Waitrose’s in very safe Labour Oxford and more of them in LibDem Oxford West and Abingdon. I like ‘em. Don’t do our main shopping there but pleasant to hang in and get a few nice (if increasingly expensive) bits and bobs. Definitely too many elderly DM readers in attendance but I enjoy occasionally calmly pointing out to them that they should read something else for the sake of their health and sanity! Generally just get a befuddled look in return.. pahh who needs a Waitrose ... here in Tim Farron country we have Booths
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Post by mercian on Aug 31, 2022 20:24:00 GMT
@c-a-r-f-r-e-w "The issue with Corbyn was more to do with personality and Brexit" People I know were against him because he always sided with any anti-British or anti-Western organisation - IRA, Hamas, lukewarm condemnation of Salisbury poisoning etc etc. "...which is why they didn’t elect Churchill in 1945 despite his status." My dad told me that there was a strong rumour going around the armed forces that Churchill wanted to just keep going through Germany and take on Russia. As a result they nearly all voted Labour (including Dad for I think the only time in his life). ---------------------- peteDon't they have free school meals for poor kids any more? They did when I was a lad. --------------------------- robbiealive"(b) Women are much more inclined to support Starmer than the Tories, and Labour need to hang on to that vote by a careful attention to education:welfare: child-care: NHS issues." Are you telling me that women have the vote now? No wonder we're in trouble.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 31, 2022 20:30:04 GMT
@c-a-r-f-r-e-w "The issue with Corbyn was more to do with personality and Brexit" People I know were against him because he always sided with any anti-British or anti-Western organisation - IRA, Hamas, lukewarm condemnation of Salisbury poisoning etc etc. "...which is why they didn’t elect Churchill in 1945 despite his status." My dad told me that there was a strong rumour going around the armed forces that Churchill wanted to just keep going through Germany and take on Russia. As a result they nearly all voted Labour (including Dad for I think the only time in his life). Yes, no doubt there were additional concerns with Corbyn, including attitude to NATO etc., it’s just that the polling indicated that personality and Brexit were the biggest two factors. The economy aspect was only 6%. Re: Churchill, IIRC I think you may have mentioned that before and it may well be a factor. IIRC Churchill got booed on the stump when out campaigning, and I think thst was more to do with wanting more left wing economics, but not at all sure about it.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2022 20:30:27 GMT
Meanwhile back on Fantasy Island ....
Liz Truss has made a firm pledge of “no new taxes” if she becomes prime minister next week.
Ms Truss also specifically ruled out a new windfall tax on energy companies which are raking in massive profits as a result of the historic spike in gas prices.
And she promised that there will be no French-style energy rationing this winter, when average domestic fuel prices are set to rise to an annual £3,459.
Her commitments come at a time when experts are warning that the government faces the need for tens of billions of support funding to help households and businesses keep the heating on this winter.
If she is elected Boris Johnson’s successor, as expected, on Monday, her promises risk significantly limiting her room for manoeuvre as she draws up a response to warnings of destitution for families and closure for small businesses if support is not delivered.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 31, 2022 20:43:32 GMT
If that was a serious stance from Starmer you'd have to wonder whether this was a wise move to piss of some of the voters that might be more naturally Labour. We all get it that Starmer not appearing too left wing and getting grief from "lefties" might appeal to "soft Tories" but I reckon traditional "soft Tories" (like Colin for example) are a bit of a dying breed and that Johnson got his majority from a different breed of soft Tories who wanted change via brexit but are also open to quite radical policies to make their lives better. Meanwhile there's a growing demographic who can't get on the housing ladder, perhaps a student loan hanging over their heads as well, and in insecure employment increasingly into middle age as the career jobs disappear. Also another group who ought to be in the Labour camp but don't see politics changing anything because no politician appears to be offering them anything so move into the "will not vote" category. Owen Jones and "lefties" in general might not fully represent any of those groups but I would suggest there is a demographic there which Blair would not have written off just to make a point to soft Tories that probably don't exist in greater numbers these days than "the left". Oh come off it sport. Did you actually listen to the clip. Jones was ranting & abusive: he looked & sounded a little tired & emotional. Was Starmer supposed to take that seriously. Yeah it was somewhat crass, but the bigger deal is if the electorate are similarly affected by the u-turns etc. According to IPSOS polling a couple weeks ago: “ The proportion trusting Starmer remains relatively unchanged since June 2020 (when it was 33%), but distrust has risen from 19%” to 33%” Still doing better than Truss and Sunak though, and indeed MPs in general. The worsening distrust trend might be a bit worrying though
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Post by mercian on Aug 31, 2022 20:47:29 GMT
@lakeland Lass Yes, it's ridiculous that the candidates are still making public promises when all they need to do is address their electorate - the Tory members. I bet at least 90% of the votes are already in anyway. Whichever one wins they will need to come up with some plan PDQ for small businesses especially, as they've already announced £400+ support for households.
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Post by robbiealive on Aug 31, 2022 20:55:32 GMT
1. I think the interesting thing about the shift is more support for social housing. If one looks at polling across a range of things - nationalisations, action on zero hours contracts, rent controls, getting rid of tuition fees - then these things were popular even in 2019. The issue with Corbyn was more to do with personality and Brexit (though some of the personality issues may have been media-related. We saw what happened to Miliband).
2. Rather than a campaigning perspective, I am mostly just looking out for shifts, and looking for reasons as to why.
3. Re: post-war, though I don’t have any data on the matter, the impression I had was the people who fought in and endured the war wanted a better future thereafter, which is why they didn’t elect Churchill in 1945 despite his status. The difficulty is that some of the biggest drivers of post-war upward mobility - standard left wing stuff like affordable housing, cheap utilities, full employment - have been marginalised by the parties more to the right and the media, despite the undoubted popularity of many of them.
4. However, nonetheless there has been an overall shift left in important respects, in that austerity is no longer treated with the same fervour, significant fiscal action is now accepted, and there’s an acceptance of more need for the state to ensure more investment. (Not that’s it’s nearly enough for me, of course)
1. Starmer/Labour can act on some of these things. E.g., extending housing associations & stop them being privatised, which may be popular with some tenants but not with those seeking accommodation. Ditto, zero-hours, some rent controls. But the price tag for nationalisation would be huge & it would be lunacy for Labour to get bogged down in the costs & complexity of reversing the results of past Tory policies at a stroke. Your programme is far too ambitious. It was mooted in '19 & failed. 2. People are always telling polsters they are in favour of things they don't in the event really intend voting for. E.g., you are always recommendng what Starmer should do, but you don't vote anyway. This induces in you an academic view of things. You pick & choose this & that from various parties. That's not how electoral politics works. 3. Re post-1945. In the 20 years before the War GDP per capita increased by 40% & much of that at the end. In the 20 years after the War it nearly doubled. I was merely pointing out that the social gains from prosperity were widely diffused. I can't help it if the war generation voted Thatcher & that the boomers, i.e., those born after '45, feather-bedded in their later years by the Tories, have 3:1 stuck religiously to voting Tory & indeed supported Brexit. They were offered left-wing policies in 2019. They ran a mile. Things have not changed that much. You are always on about boomers & Blair, Now they vote Tory: nearly every one born in the decade after the war does so! 4. You tend to confuse what Tory voters may want with what the new regime proposes to do. If they are as right wing as they make out they will find it harder to outflank Starmer; eg, the energy price fix. This lot think Sunak is a socialist. They are not intent on ditching austerity, rather the reverse. This would mean clear blue water between them & Starmer.
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Post by ptarmigan on Aug 31, 2022 21:00:35 GMT
Meh, just the usual bland nothingness from Starmer, isn't it? I note he didn't address Owen's point about him being a political conman. Probably because it's inarguable. Well I'll happily take that principled 'conman' over absolutely anything offered by any flavour of Tories, esp this pseudo-fascist lot or indeed anyone else in British politics at the moment. I imagine you're happy to live under years of execrable Tory rule just waiting like Vladimir and Estragon for the moment of the second coming of Corbyn and a socialist nirvana... Well I'm bloody not so **** to you! Strange response. I'm not sure why you imagine that. I've voted for an ABT candidate in every general election since I was eligible to vote precisely because I'm not happy to live under years of execrable Tory rule! Does that mean that I ought to refrain from criticism of the leader of the Labour party? If so there were plenty of avowed non-Tories who didn't get that particular memo when Corbyn was leader. For what it's worth, I think Starmer has actually done a little better of late - the intervention on energy was a bit of an open goal, but was at least welcome.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 31, 2022 21:13:01 GMT
1. I think the interesting thing about the shift is more support for social housing. If one looks at polling across a range of things - nationalisations, action on zero hours contracts, rent controls, getting rid of tuition fees - then these things were popular even in 2019. The issue with Corbyn was more to do with personality and Brexit (though some of the personality issues may have been media-related. We saw what happened to Miliband).
2. Rather than a campaigning perspective, I am mostly just looking out for shifts, and looking for reasons as to why.
3. Re: post-war, though I don’t have any data on the matter, the impression I had was the people who fought in and endured the war wanted a better future thereafter, which is why they didn’t elect Churchill in 1945 despite his status. The difficulty is that some of the biggest drivers of post-war upward mobility - standard left wing stuff like affordable housing, cheap utilities, full employment - have been marginalised by the parties more to the right and the media, despite the undoubted popularity of many of them.
4. However, nonetheless there has been an overall shift left in important respects, in that austerity is no longer treated with the same fervour, significant fiscal action is now accepted, and there’s an acceptance of more need for the state to ensure more investment. (Not that’s it’s nearly enough for me, of course)
1. Starmer/Labour can act on some of these things. E.g., extending hosuing associations & stop them being privatised, which may be popular with some tenants but not with those seeking accommodation. Ditto, zero-hours, some rent controls. But the price tag for nationalisation would be huge & it would be lunacy for Labour to get bogged down in the costs & complexity of reversing the results of past Tory policies at a stroke. 2. People are always telling polsters they are in favour of things they don't in the event really intend voting for. E.g., you are always recommedning what Starmer should do, but you don't vote anyway. This induces in you an academic view of things. You pick & choose this & that from various parties. That's not how politics works. .. 4. You tend to confuse what Tory voters may want with what the new regime proposes to do. If they are as right wing as they make out they will find it harder to outflank Starmer; eg, the energy price fix. This lot think Sunak is a socialist. They are not intent on ditching austerity, rather the reverse. This would mean clear blue water between them & Starmer. Yes, I note you are trying to caricature my posting, and by the customary flawed critique. 1. As pointed out, for things like energy you can just have a state player in the market which is not very expensive, or difficult, esp. when we bail failed companies out anyway. 2. I don’t tend to recommend what Starmer should do. I know I am unlikely to get too many of the policies I would like. I am interested in what is electorally feasible, so one can look at polling and note some nationalisations might be welcome, but then if you see press opposition you know it may not be that feasible in practice. That’s why I think it’s significant the Guardian have come out in favour, though whether that is enough is something else. Then you have to factor in any electoral cost of the u-turn etc. Don’t really see how converting Bulb into a state player in the energy market would offend too many voters or indeed the press though. Similarly, I’m not keen on Starmer’s u-turns personally, but from the point of view of recommending what he should do, I don’t do that much. I am more interested in noting consequences of action, whether in terms of effects of policies on voters or on electoral prospects. Just posted how Starmer’s recent u-turns are working out electorally. So far it seems like it’s possible he might be taking a bit of a hit for it in trust terms, but it’s still ok. For now… but if for example the Tories open the taps before the elections and start closing the gap, any losses might become significant. I am not confusing what Tory voters want with what the new regime propose to do. I have treated them as two separate things. And my point was that the new regime MIGHT be saying one thing to the members but might do something different in practice. In fact, I have already posted the same conclusion as you: that they will likely only be able to outflank Starmer if they move more left than it currently seems.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 31, 2022 21:14:16 GMT
There is no actual polling evidence so far to support that though. Currently the Labour ceiling looks more like 25% and the SNP floor probably over 40%. That would only net Labour 2 or 3 seats at most. I believe that Survation has had Labour on 27% with SNP circa 41%.. That would imply a swing to Labour there in excess of 6% and the prospect of the party returning to the 7 seats won in 2017. The only Survation Scottish poll this year (28 March) had SNP 45% SLab 27%. The other Scottish polls for W/M during the last 4 months have been - Panelbase : SNP 44% SLab 23% Ipsos MORI : SNP 44% SLab 23% YouGov : SNP 46% : SLab 22%
I have updated the 7 Scots crossbreak average in the Polling Archive thread with the state of play at end of August (changes from end July) YouGov : SNP 47% (+3) : SCon 18% (=) : SLab 21% (-1) : SLD 6% (-1) : SGP 5% (=) : REFUK 1% (-1) Opinium : SNP 39% (-1) : SCon 21% (+2) : SLab 25% (+1) : SLD 7% (=) : SGP 4% (-1) R&W : SNP 37% (=) : SCon 20% (-4) : SLab 27% (=) : SLD 10% (+3) : SGP 3% (=) : REFUK 2% (=)
Of course, graham is correct that if lots of folk vote SLab at the next GE instead of SNP, then there will be more Labour MPs and fewer SNP ones : the reverse would be hard to achieve!
While I hope that YG, using some Scottish factors in their weighting, are more accurate than R&W, who use only GB weighting factors, we won't know until an election. However, taking each of the pollsters on their merits, there isn't much evidence of a discernible trend.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2022 21:14:53 GMT
Is it possible that Truss could lose this leadership contest? Just seems bizarre that someone who is so clearly unpopular with the electorate and so obviously out of her depth can really win. Surely even Tory members aren’t that blinkered? And am I right in thinking they can cancel an earlier vote and have another go - or was that idea got rid of? It would certainly be droll if Sunak ended up winning.
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Post by ptarmigan on Aug 31, 2022 21:16:08 GMT
Meh, just the usual bland nothingness from Starmer, isn't it? I note he didn't address Owen's point about him being a political conman. Probably because it's inarguable. Why should he bother to reply to Jones. He’s a jumped-up little squirt. Starmer’s got more important things to do. And he’s much better looking than boy-Owen 😀 To be honest, whenever I see your profile pic I have to remind myself that it's young Sir Keir as I always glance at it thinking it's Morten Harket from A-ha so I may have to concede on your final point!
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Post by ladyvalerie on Aug 31, 2022 21:19:12 GMT
or maybe he does and it's all part of the cunning plan ! If that was a serious stance from Starmer you'd have to wonder whether this was a wise move to piss of some of the voters that might be more naturally Labour. We all get it that Starmer not appearing too left wing and getting grief from "lefties" might appeal to "soft Tories" but I reckon traditional "soft Tories" (like Colin for example) are a bit of a dying breed and that Johnson got his majority from a different breed of soft Tories who wanted change via brexit but are also open to quite radical policies to make their lives better. Meanwhile there's a growing demographic who can't get on the housing ladder, perhaps a student loan hanging over their heads as well, and in insecure employment increasingly into middle age as the career jobs disappear. Also another group who ought to be in the Labour camp but don't see politics changing anything because no politician appears to be offering them anything so move into the "will not vote" category. Owen Jones and "lefties" in general might not fully represent any of those groups but I would suggest there is a demographic there which Blair would not have written off just to make a point to soft Tories that probably don't exist in greater numbers these days than "the left". As Robbie implied, Jones had clearly had a few when making that video, as could be seen by the number of times it stopped and started, presumably so he could refill his glass. Maybe Owen was upset at seeing a Labour Party, led by Starmer, doing so well in the polls. There may be some prospective Labour voters p-- sed off by Starmer’s stance, but all the usual Labour voters I come across, including stay-at-homes and those who voted LibDem, who were turned off by Corbyn, see Starmer as the only viable alternative to another five years of Tory rule. To me, he had a very clear message, Labour can do nothing unless they can form a government.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 31, 2022 21:29:13 GMT
1. I think the interesting thing about the shift is more support for social housing. If one looks at polling across a range of things - nationalisations, action on zero hours contracts, rent controls, getting rid of tuition fees - then these things were popular even in 2019. The issue with Corbyn was more to do with personality and Brexit (though some of the personality issues may have been media-related. We saw what happened to Miliband).
2. Rather than a campaigning perspective, I am mostly just looking out for shifts, and looking for reasons as to why.
3. Re: post-war, though I don’t have any data on the matter, the impression I had was the people who fought in and endured the war wanted a better future thereafter, which is why they didn’t elect Churchill in 1945 despite his status. The difficulty is that some of the biggest drivers of post-war upward mobility - standard left wing stuff like affordable housing, cheap utilities, full employment - have been marginalised by the parties more to the right and the media, despite the undoubted popularity of many of them.
4. However, nonetheless there has been an overall shift left in important respects, in that austerity is no longer treated with the same fervour, significant fiscal action is now accepted, and there’s an acceptance of more need for the state to ensure more investment. (Not that’s it’s nearly enough for me, of course)
3. Re post-1945. In the 20 years before the War GDP per capita increased by 40% & much of that at the end. In the 20 years after the War it nearly doubled. I was merely pointing out that the social gains from prosperity were widely diffused. I can't help it if the war generation voted Thatcher & that the boomers, i.e., those born after '45, feather-bedded in their later years by the Tories, have 3:1 stuck religiously to voting Tory & indeed supported Brexit. They were offered left-wing policies in 2019. They ran a mile. Things have not changed that much. You are always on about boomers & Blair, Now they vote Tory: nearly every one born in the decade after the war does so! Once again, I didn’t disagree with that Robbie, I agreed with you on how the prosperity gains were more widely spread in that era. Many of your criticisms are manufactured. Nor did I suggest it was your fault that generation voted Thatcher. Indeed one might argue that as a whole the electorate weren’t that keen but the left’s vote was split. (Look what happened to Labour’s polling lead after the Limehouse declaration). The observation that they “ran a mile” in 2019 is a key point at issue. Because it is far from clear that they ran a mile due to voter disapproval of left wing economic policies, as opposed to press and right wing internal opposition, and voter concerns about Brexit/Corbyn personality. In other words, being scientific, it’s useful to try and control the variables and look at indirect data etc. to determine what the real reasons are.
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Aug 31, 2022 21:30:29 GMT
She'll say anything to try to get a vote to get into No 10 - no matter how many deaths would result.
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Post by ladyvalerie on Aug 31, 2022 21:34:42 GMT
Why should he bother to reply to Jones. He’s a jumped-up little squirt. Starmer’s got more important things to do. And he’s much better looking than boy-Owen 😀 To be honest, whenever I see your profile pic I have to remind myself that it's young Sir Keir as I always glance at it thinking it's Morten Harket from A-ha so I may have to concede on your final point! Aha! lyricstranslate.com/files/styles/artist/public/1986.jpg
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 31, 2022 21:38:23 GMT
Is it possible that Truss could lose this leadership contest? Just seems bizarre that someone who is so clearly unpopular with the electorate and so obviously out of her depth can really win. Surely even Tory members aren’t that blinkered? And am I right in thinking they can cancel an earlier vote and have another go - or was that idea got rid of? It would certainly be droll if Sunak ended up winning. "Is it possible that Truss could lose this leadership contest?" - No (unless the polls are hugely wrong) "Surely even Tory members aren’t that blinkered?" - They clearly are (don't forget they once picked Iain Duncan Smith over Ken Clarke ) "And am I right in thinking they can cancel an earlier vote and have another go - or was that idea got rid of?" - I believe the idea had to be abandoned because there was no way to secure it against fraud.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 31, 2022 21:40:27 GMT
Why should he bother to reply to Jones. He’s a jumped-up little squirt. Starmer’s got more important things to do. And he’s much better looking than boy-Owen 😀 To be honest, whenever I see your profile pic I have to remind myself that it's young Sir Keir as I always glance at it thinking it's Morten Harket from A-ha so I may have to concede on your final point! Reminds me of Dr Robert
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 31, 2022 21:49:36 GMT
Jones like many another socialist purist knows the real enemy when he sees it.
An electable Labour party.
Quick form a circular firing squad .
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