Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 29, 2022 8:46:24 GMT
Con never wanted to get rid of Johnson, but did so because of constant criticism of things he had done, like encouraging ignoring covid rules. That of course wasnt really a criticism because he was absolutely right the rules were pointless, especially since most politicians caught covid early. But getting rid of him has not produced a bounce is support for con. So it was an empty gesture. He might as well come back. He still has value as a scapegoat.
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Post by davwel on Aug 29, 2022 8:50:35 GMT
@ Crossbat;
Surely you don`t think people in the other 3 nations are not wondering about our new PM`s intended actual doings.
Your terminology is long-past its sell-by date
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Post by pete on Aug 29, 2022 8:59:18 GMT
The nation no doubt, as UKPR appears to be, is agog with anticipation about what our new PM and his/ her brand (sic) new administration will do to rescue us all from the economic and social privations that await us (to very varying degrees, depending on where you sit in our unequal society). Once these rescue measures are deployed, be they VAT cuts, targeted payments, income tax/NI cuts, price freezes or a combination of all of them, the nation will no doubt be very grateful. For this will be a totally new administration remember, decoupled from all that has gone before, and breathing new life into our politics. They will disavow their predecessors follies, even though they're often referring to their very selves when they do so, and they will be fresh and shiny new. Their court press will hail it as a new beginning for the nation. Look, they will say, we have new saviours amongst us. They will purge the Augean stables too. Learning lessons from the past and offering to be whoever we want them to be. The previous 12 years will be a foreign land that was populated by renegades now swept aside. Well, this will the plan anyway. Cool Lizzie or Slick Rishi will hope to win friends with the political philanthropy, the turning on of socialist taps if you like, they will no doubt soon dispense. The idea that neither will do nothing significant in the face of the exploding cost of living cataclysm is absurd. Of course they will. Whether any of it will really effectively address what many are equating to a humanitarian crisis for millions of our poorest citizens, is another question. They will give it a go though, for they have no choice, but their real aim is political salvation for their party and themselves. Smoke and mirrors and a dash to the country is the usual Tory way. Cheered on by their court press and with an insulated core vote taking to the barricades. Roll up for five more years. Look how Liz/ Rishi rose to the challenge. Our brave boys in government and all that. Who could have done any better. It woz the foreigners what caused it all anyway. We could all get fooled again, I suppose. Our tormentors, the authors of many of our deepest problems, may get rewarded, I suppose. It depends on the numbers who want to punish them instead and evict them. For there are many of those. A clear majority I'd say. They really do need to get their act together this time. So, they won't be the Tory party or as tw liked to call them new model Tories (was that it?). They'll be the newer new model Tory party?
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Post by mandolinist on Aug 29, 2022 9:00:12 GMT
NeilJ: "Was crunching some numbers re the proposed vat cut of 5%, for poorer families of around £20,000 household income after taxes, they spend on average 8% on vat rated goods. So they spend £1600 on vat rated goods and services. So a 5% cut would save them £320 a year."Actually, it would save them just £67 a year (5 120ths of 1600). One possibility for providing a universal payment that disproportionately benefits the worst-off is to make the benefit taxable. Not only is a fixed-sum payment far larger proportionately to the least well off, but they get to retain all or most of it post-tax.
Later: I should add that your post was very valuable in that the corrected figure of £67 illustrates just how feeble cutting vat is as an assistance measure for the poor.
It seems really obvious, cap the bill at £1980, and extend it to SME's, make another £500 payment to everyone in January, tackle the inequality for those with pre-payment meters, tax all higher rate taxpayers an extra 2% for two years or until the cost of energy reduces to the cap price, increase the windfall tax.
Alternatively, we could just give a bung to the highest paid and watch the UK burn as riots spread. It is a bit like the corn laws really, protect the vested interests and watch the people starve or do something meaningful.
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Post by jib on Aug 29, 2022 9:03:28 GMT
jib Presumably as he " got Brexit done" you would approve. Hopefully after serial lying to parliament he will face exclusion from parliament ,a recall petition and inevitable humiliation if he attempts to stand in the resulting by election. It's possible that the deranged brexitanians in the Tory party might want the liar back to lie some more but surely writing for the right wing press is more lucrative. I'm not a supporter of the Tories or any party that has a history of coalitions with them. I do find the guy quite fascinating in terms of his limitless ego and complete lack of humility, so my post was purely observational. Echoes of Trump.
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Post by somerjohn on Aug 29, 2022 9:03:37 GMT
CB11: "It was my Mediterranean biased autotext. Honestly."
I believe you. Honestly. (smiley thing)
It did set me thinking that the modern equivalent of cleaning the Augean stables might be reforming and rooting out corruption in Albania. They might vote for King Boris if he offered his services as a latter-day Zog. He'd be like a pig in muck in those stables!
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 29, 2022 9:04:43 GMT
I see that the Prince of Wales has broken down off the south coast of England. Was he trying to flee to France for the cheaper leccy? Broken down as in floods of tears, I presume. What's upset the precious old booby now? The lack of marine wildlife in the Channel, perhaps?
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Post by pete on Aug 29, 2022 9:07:44 GMT
I'm preparing for the winter struggles to come. Just ordered a hot water bottle (and cover).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2022 9:18:45 GMT
The ever thoughtful Paul Johnson of IFS applies his logical brain to retail energy prices in today's Times. Whilst being clearly uncomfortable about universal payments to both rich and poor, he says "The problem is that any other type of intervention may now be inadequate. We don’t have the tools to target all those households that are likely to end up in serious trouble."
His solution is accept universality for the payments and target the funding stream :-
" An intervention like this would need to be paid for eventually with real additional revenue. It is no use pretending, as Labour did, that it would last only six months and could be paid for from a series of non-existent revenue streams, including mythical savings on debt interest. Truss, if she wins, will have to recognise that governing requires hard choices and that sometimes means tax rises. Any government going down this route would need to pay for it, over time, through the tax system, preferably income tax. That could effectively recover the unnecessary payments going to those on high incomes."
His final thought :-
"This is not an attractive policy. Raising taxes to subsidise everyone’s bills is something to contemplate only in an emergency. If a more targeted approach can be made to work, that is what we should do. But we may be facing such an emergency that deeply unpalatable decisions need to be taken. If only we had a government in place to give the careful and mature consideration that such decisions require."
Elsewhere in the Times however, it is suggested that tinkering with retail prices is not addressing the real problem:-
"Providing gas at an “acceptable” price for power plants would reduce the wholesale price of electricity, so preventing old solar, wind and nuclear power plants making profits that are pushing bills up, Cornwall Insight said. This could be a cheaper way of helping customers than leaving bills high and providing direct subsidies to households, the consultancy believes.
Gareth Miller, its chief executive, said “most of the focus has been on interventions that concentrate on energy retailers, such as those which involve freezing the price cap”. ScottishPower has estimated that freezing bills at the annual cap level of £1,971 for two years could cost £100 billion, to cover the difference between the cap and the wholesale costs that suppliers incur.
Miller said that “changes focused on generation of wholesale energy rather than suppliers seem to be missing from the debate”, yet “would have the advantage of addressing businesses as well as households”.
Cornwall wants the government to look at two mechanisms that could reduce wholesale power costs: either subsidising gas used in power plants or another proposal, backed by SSE, in which old solar, wind and nuclear plants would sign contracts to sell their output at fixed prices well below present wholesale market prices.
The electricity system operates so that the most expensive power plant needed to keep the lights on sets the market price. High gas prices mean that gas-fired power stations, which generate less than half our electricity, are inflating the market price for others, resulting in huge profits for many wind, solar and nuclear generators.
Last week wholesale power costs rose to a new high of £845 per megawatt-hour for the coming winter. That is about 16 times higher than the long-term average. If the price of power from all old low-carbon generators could be brought down to £150 per megawatt-hour, through either proposed mechanism, consumers could save tens of billions of pounds, Cornwall estimates. Cornwall said the government could tackle this windfall by setting “a maximum purchase price for gas to be used in power that is generated for consumption”. This should bring down wholesale power prices and so eliminate unintended high profits for non-gas generators. A similar scheme has been implemented in Spain."
Despite the high regard I have for Johnson, I can't help feeling that Cornwall Insight is right-retail prices are a symptom, not the cause. But every time I try and read up on the pricing mechanisms at work in the UK wholesale energy market I find it impossible to understand and can't escape the conclusion that producers are coining it and we are paying-for no good reason.
Times front page today leads with :-
"Nearly half of Conservative voters support the renationalisation of Britain’s energy industry, a poll has found, putting pressure on the incoming prime minister to embrace radical solutions to the cost of living crisis.
Forty-seven per cent of Tory voters favour returning the energy companies to public ownership, with 28 per cent opposed to such a move and 25 per cent unsure. Among those who voted for the Conservatives in 2019, including many in the red wall seats of the northeast and the Midlands, the figure rises to 53 per cent in favour of renationalisation."
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Post by alec on Aug 29, 2022 9:21:53 GMT
@danny - "lockdown wasted a trillion pounds"
No it didn't.
What was wasted was the advantage over the disease that lockdowns bought for us, at substantial cost. It is living with covid that is costing us trillions.
The Brookings Institute published a paper last week that found inability to work due to long covid is responsible for 4m jobs shortages in the US, which they calculate to be the equivalent loss of 1% of GDP. Whereas lockdowns were time limited and short term, this may end being permanent. Losing 1% of GDP is a massive economic hit; if you have normal trend growth of 2-3%, that's anywhere between a third to a half of you growth lost through slack public health policies.
The evidence is all around you Danny. You just need to open your eyes.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2022 9:24:49 GMT
"This is not an attractive policy. Raising taxes to subsidise everyone’s bills is something to contemplate only in an emergency. If a more targeted approach can be made to work, that is what we should do. " I disagree - universal basic income is a very attractive policy, to me a least.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2022 9:30:30 GMT
If Truss needs to think about how she is going to borrow more to fund her tax cuts , she might look at the UK Bond Market :-
"Just under £300bn has been wiped off the value of UK corporate bonds since the start of this year following a major sell-off in the bond market in what is considered the biggest collapse in two decades. In the first six months of this year, the total outstanding value of UK corporate bonds has fallen by 13.3% from £2.237 trillion to £1.940 trillion, a fall of £297.5 billion. This compares to a fall of 3% for the FTSE100 over the same period, digital asset manager Collidr told City A.M. this morning." ( City AM )
Times reports :-
"A looming recession, inflation at its highest level in 42 years and rising interest rates have pushed yields on ten-year government debt to 2.6 per cent, the highest since 2014. Yields rise when bond prices fall. Two-year government bond yields, which are more sensitive to interest rate changes, have hit 2.8 per cent amid an expectation that rates will more than double. The prospect of aggressive monetary tightening from the Bank and the likelihood the next government will borrow billions to ease the country’s cost of living crisis will also drive yields higher."
THis week, BoE was expected to speed up its monetary tightening by adding to its current policy of no reinvestment of QE bond repayments-and commence selling its gilts before redemption.
This will add to the glut of gilts in a bearish bond market.
Truss will not be met with a willing buyer of her new IOUs anymore. Those chickens are coming home to roost .
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 29, 2022 9:33:31 GMT
colin
What's your view about the credibility of these polls on renationalisation, especially those showing large scale support for the idea amongst Tory supporters?
I'm a bit of sceptic, to be honest. Isn't it just a knee-jerk reaction to a crisis in a certain sector of the economy? A sort of despairing grab at anything that might fix the problem and make things work better. Anything must be better than what we've got sort if thing. Take it back into public ownership because it can't get any worse. That sort of mentality.
I would have thought that pushing such a question in a poll at a time when energy prices are soaring or, in the case of water companies, during highly publicised sewerage outflows into the sea, could be a case of leading the witness. Witness being polling respondent in this case.
Or, in typical UKPR vernacular, do you think the public is genuinely "tacking left" on these issues and even lifelong Tory voters are now favouring a form of state intervention and an ownership model they once derided and despised?
If so, we are in the midst of a political earthquake, aren't we?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2022 9:41:05 GMT
colin What's your view about the credibility of these polls on renationalisation, especially those showing large scale support for the idea amongst Tory supporters? I'm a bit of sceptic, to be honest. Isn't it just a knee-jerk reaction to a crisis in a certain sector of the economy? A sort of despairing grab at anything that might fix the problem and make things work better. Anything must be better than what we've got sort if thing. Take it back into public ownership because it can't get any worse. That sort of mentality. I would have thought that pushing such a question in a poll at a time when energy prices are soaring or, in the case of water companies, during highly publicised sewerage outflows into the sea, could be a case of leading the witness. Witness being polling respondent in this case. Or, in typical UKPR vernacular, do you think the public is genuinely "tacking left" on these issues and even lifelong Tory voters are now favouring a form of state intervention and an ownership model they once derided and despised? If so, we are in the midst of a political earthquake, aren't we? There must be a large component of what you suggest -"despairing grab at anything that might fix the problem" I do wonder though, whether the seeds of an anti-corporate wave are being sown. How many of these price rises are pure exploitation rather than cost driven ?. Its a view I hear anecdotally. Whether people understand that nationalisation just means shifting the cost to taxpayers I'm never sure. Not sure about "earthquakes" though. The Tories are going to lose an election to Labour at some point aren't they? Thats just what happens.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 29, 2022 9:56:13 GMT
colinThe political pendulum swings a little more erratically than it once did and it's worth remembering that we've only had two straight Labour/Tory or Tory/Labour changes in government in the last 43 years (1979 and 1997. I'm discounting the 2010 Coalition). Anyway, my earthquake comment didn't really relate to that. It was more about a large swathe of the Tory core vote apparently coming around to the merits of nationalisation and the public ownership of utilities. If that is indeed true, and I think it's a massive "if", then something remarkable is taking place. Thatcherism really has expired.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 29, 2022 10:07:00 GMT
jib The national government coalition during world war two had conservative, Labour and liberal members. So precisely who do you support?
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 29, 2022 10:08:47 GMT
The nation no doubt, as UKPR appears to be, is agog with anticipation about what our new PM and his/ her brand (sic) new administration will do to rescue us all from the economic and social privations that await us (to very varying degrees, depending on where you sit in our unequal society). Once these rescue measures are deployed, be they VAT cuts, targeted payments, income tax/NI cuts, price freezes or a combination of all of them, the nation will no doubt be very grateful. For this will be a totally new administration remember, decoupled from all that has gone before, and breathing new life into our politics. They will disavow their predecessors follies, even though they're often referring to their very selves when they do so, and they will be fresh and shiny new. Their court press will hail it as a new beginning for the nation. Look, they will say, we have new saviours amongst us. They will purge the Augean stables too. Learning lessons from the past and offering to be whoever we want them to be. The previous 12 years will be a foreign land that was populated by renegades now swept aside. Well, this will the plan anyway. Cool Lizzie or Slick Rishi will hope to win friends with the political philanthropy, the turning on of socialist taps if you like, they will no doubt soon dispense. The idea that neither will do anything significant in the face of the exploding cost of living cataclysm is absurd. Of course they will. Whether any of it will really effectively address what many are equating to a humanitarian crisis for millions of our poorest citizens, is another question. They will give it a go though, for they have no choice, but their real aim is political salvation for their party and themselves. Smoke and mirrors and a dash to the country is the usual Tory way. Cheered on by their court press and with an insulated core vote taking to the barricades. Roll up for five more years. Look how Liz/ Rishi rose to the challenge. Our brave boys in government and all that. Who could have done any better. It woz the foreigners what caused it all anyway. We could all get fooled again, I suppose. Our tormentors, the authors of many of our deepest problems, may get rewarded, I suppose. It depends on the numbers who want to punish them instead and evict them. For there are many of those. A clear majority I'd say. They really do need to get their act together this time. It's unbelievably obscene isn't it, given the circumstances. The longer this disconnect goes on the greater the chance I think of serious civil disobedience and all power to it.
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Post by bardin1 on Aug 29, 2022 10:11:55 GMT
I'm preparing for the winter struggles to come. Just ordered a hot water bottle (and cover). I have some bad news for you The bottle is not really hot. You have to heat the water to put in it
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 29, 2022 10:13:00 GMT
colin Paul Johnson may be thoughtful but " An intervention like this would need to be paid for eventually with real additional revenue. It is no use pretending, as Labour did, that it would last only six months and could be paid for from a series of non-existent revenue streams, including mythical savings on debt interest. " Is a misinterpretation of what Labour actually said there was no "pretence" that it would only last 6 months just that those six months are likely to be the most pressing concern and longer term measures could be developed without seeing households impoverished and elderly freezing to death. It's a policy I endorse not surprisingly as it was actually a policy proposed by the liberal democrats before Starmer and would be of immediate benefit.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 29, 2022 10:18:26 GMT
Even in 2017, 36% of Tories thought Energy should be in the public sector, though not a majority. And they were keener on nationalising Rail, water and the Royal Mail.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 29, 2022 10:23:31 GMT
It's a policy I endorse not surprisingly as it was actually a policy proposed by the liberal democrats before Starmer Someone in the Times said the same was true of the Windfall tax, though I haven’t checked
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 29, 2022 10:24:55 GMT
alec The Brookings metro analysis is interesting. It's worthwhile noting however their advisory "Long Covid isn’t the only post-viral illness impacting the U.S. economy. For example, a 2015 Institute of Medicine report found that 835,0000 to 2.5 million people in the U.S. had ME/CFS—a complex, disabling illness often triggered by a virus. In fact, many patients with long Covid meet the criteria for ME/CFS. " In otherwise proportion of long covid ( they don't estimate what percentage but up to 100% is entirely possible) is consistent with the long established post viral conditions associated with many other viruses. While this doesn't actually reduce the impact it does shine a light on there being nothing unique about covid long term potential impacts it's simply the volume of infection that has made the impact statistically more significant. It might have also helped if the time scale of " long covid" had been defined as most who suffer from post viral impacts have fully recovered within 12-24 weeks. As such the long term impact on GDP would significantly reduce over time.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 29, 2022 10:33:31 GMT
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Post by pete on Aug 29, 2022 10:47:53 GMT
I'm preparing for the winter struggles to come. Just ordered a hot water bottle (and cover). I have some bad news for you The bottle is not really hot. You have to heat the water to put in it Damn! I was hoping the cover would keep it warm. Actually, the real question is will the kettle or hob be cheaper to heat the water up?
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 29, 2022 10:48:01 GMT
He's got a point, no need to sugar coat it though...I'll get my coat
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Post by matt126 on Aug 29, 2022 10:59:16 GMT
With regards to the energy market prices around the world, governments around the world need to look at ways to reduce the market price of energy. The highly inflated price of energy is as much to do with speculators on the commodity markets using the current market to push the price far higher than it should be given current supply and demand. Maybe ways to reduce global usage of gas is one way to crash the market price. Given that households and businesses are likely to do this any way prices maybe will fall eventually below the market forecasts
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Post by robbiealive on Aug 29, 2022 11:02:12 GMT
I'm preparing for the winter struggles to come. Just ordered a hot water bottle (and cover). Man you are behind the times. You can buy something which needs no water & you heat up in a microwave in 3 or 4 minutes. There are also electric blankets, which cost little to run? I have never used either and I don't suppose they are as cheap as the usual rubber hotties.
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Post by alec on Aug 29, 2022 11:02:36 GMT
steve - don't really disagree with much of your post. Long covid is a very real and pressing concern, but what we are learning as a result of the massive research effort going into to covid is that other viruses create similar long term effects, although none have the range of effects on multiple organ systems as covid. One very interesting study was the huge Danish cohort study, which found that for some conditions (cardiovascular and strokes excl brain bleeds, I think) infection with 'flu was as dangerous as long covid, although covid had wider impacts on a series of neurological complaints (including dementia). Typically, some have used this to argue that we shouldn't worry about covid 'because flu does the same', and that is obviously completely the wrong lesson to take from this emerging research. The correct lesson is that while covid stands out in terms of the rate, range and severity of long term impacts, alongside far more frequent infections for any given individual, flu and many other viruses can indeed also cause long term and serious effects, and therefore we should take all these infectious diseases a bit more seriously. Fortunately, the basic very low cost measures we need to deploy against covid (masking, clean air, proper sick pay and isolation etc) have been proven to be just as effective against many other airborne viruses, so we get a multiple benefit from such measures.
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Post by isa on Aug 29, 2022 11:04:02 GMT
I have some bad news for you The bottle is not really hot. You have to heat the water to put in it Damn! I was hoping the cover would keep it warm. Actually, the real question is will the kettle or hob be cheaper to heat the water up? Or possibly the microwave?
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Post by isa on Aug 29, 2022 11:13:15 GMT
He's got a point, no need to sugar coat it though...I'll get my coat Blimey, that's a pretty frank assessment from someone who knows a bit about business. Is this a genuine Twitter account?
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