8-Dec-2021 : LAB: 40 / CON: 34 / LDEM: 10 / GRN: 4

[steve]

Incidentally I was a Labour party member at the time of the coalition but given I am currently still a liberal democrat party member clearly I've forgiven them.

As it happens I think they would have been far better in 2010 to have offered a confidence and supply arrangement with the Cameron tories Some genuine restrictions on the austerity policies and electoral reform could have been achieved and I suspect given that much of their support wouldn't have been lost we could have avoided the disaster of brexit.

The lib dems shouldn't have entered a formal coalition it's just a shame that the Brown led Labour party did so badly that it ruled out Labour as a viable alternative minority government.
The vast majority of lib dems I know would have been far more comfortable with supporting a Labour regime.

[steve]

Mandolinist.
I wouldn't be trying to unseat Labour mps either.

[graham]

Dec 27, 2021 12:59:35 GMT steve said:

Incidentally I was a Labour party member at the time of the coalition but given I am currently still a liberal democrat party member clearly I've forgiven them.

As it happens I think they would have been far better in 2010 to have offered a confidence and supply arrangement with the Cameron tories Some genuine restrictions on the austerity policies and electoral reform could have been achieved and I suspect given that much of their support wouldn't have been lost we could have avoided the disaster of brexit.

The lib dems shouldn't have entered a formal coalition it's just a shame that the Brown led Labour party did so badly that it ruled out Labour as a viable alternative minority government.
The vast majority of lib dems I know would have been far more comfortable with supporting a Labour regime.

I voted LD at the General Elections of 2001 and 2005 when Charles Kennedy was Leader - but would not seriously consider doing so again if a Labour or Green candidate was standing.I had been a Labour member from 1970 until the end of 1996 when my disillusionment with Blair led me to discontinue my membership. I actually voted Socialist Labour in 1997 and Green in 2010. I returned to voting Labour in 2015 and 2017 - but went Green in 2019. The latter was due entirely to my refusal to support a gender vetted Labour candidate - and totally unrelated to national policy.

Were I living now in Wales or Scotland and faced with just Tory and Plaid or SNP candidates, I would unhesitatingly vote Tory.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Good afternoon from an absolutely atrocious day in the PSRL
@ graham
Post Coalition many Labour voters do not see the LDs as a centre left party - but rather a centre right party. In terms of current Macroeconomic policy, many commentators place them to the Right of Johnson's government.
A longterm consequence of the Coalition is that many Labour voters are now much more inclined to vote Green - rather than LD

I think the composition of the LD vote varies more over time than the other major parties, and has not only shrank since 2010 but also currently more likely to include former Tory voters who were remain than disaffected Labour voters. In the case of Scotland, former left-leaning LD voters seem to have migrated just as much if not more so to the SNP than Labour, and I can't see them benefiting from any ABT vote North of the border. Compared to the Lab/SNP and Con parties I don’t think they have as big or as consistent base support, or a particular demographic they can call on for support. For the LD's to pick up seats from the Tories in England they need to attract sufficient numbers of both former Labour and Tory voters without potentially alienating one or the other by attacks on the other two parties. However, the foundation of their support amongst a number of their voters to one extent or another rests on relatively soft foundations compared to the other major parties, with voters 'lending' them their support.

[Old Southendian]

Dec 27, 2021 0:21:01 GMT tancred said:

Dec 26, 2021 22:28:23 GMT eor said:

Not sure the data is on your side there! Beethoven alone has more top 20 entries than those two combined. And the (to me, utterly unfathomable) Lark ascended to the upper echelons about a decade before Brexit hove into view, with Elgar's popularity at best described as static over the years.

Didn't Elgar get something like 14 entries?  Seems bonkers to me - 5 or 6 I could understand. I'm not saying that classical music popularity is related to Brexit but there seems to be a parochialism in musical taste in England at least. 

I guess it's not surprising that a radio station based in UK tends to favour UK composers - I'm sure other popular classical stations abroad would be similar.  I have a colleague who's a big music fan from Slovakia who was surprised at how much British classical music there is, he'd heard little before coming here.  It works both ways, how many Slovakian (as opposed to Czech) composers do we know?

While I'm partial to a bit of Vaughan-Williams (Lark Ascending is far from his best IMHO), it's clear there's too much Elgar, V-W, Barry, Finzi etc in the Classic FM Hall of Fame to be an objective assesment.  But it's not entirely English bias.  What other poll would put a entry by Hamish MacCunn in the top 300?  And the Welsh do even better with Karl Jenkins - I wonder how well known he is outside UK?  For his classical music anyway.

[crossbat11]

Dec 27, 2021 12:04:34 GMT steve said:

Graham

Starmer has made it clear that getting rid of the Tory government is the only priority and while Labour party constitution prevents them standing down candidates it doesn't make them require to actively campaign where the liberal democrat ( and it is almost exclusively liberal democrat) is the centre left candidate most likely to unseat a tory.
The lib dems and certainly their voters are normally prepared to reciprocate



I am not sure how this plays out in Scotland with a centre left party already in ascendancy but presumably supporting the centre left candidate not wanting secession would be the logical choice where there isn't a tory incumbent.

I think you're right and this is how tactical voting tends to occur in practice. It doesn't really require orchestration and probably kicks in as a sort of electoral realpolitik. I wouldn't go as far as to say cloth pegs are applied to noses once in polling booths, but what makes sense is done, constituency by constituency.

Maybe it gathers potency and salience on the Left when two factors align; long periods of Tory government and the emergence of a more centrist Labour Party. This was the case in 1997 , when some anti Tory tactical voting was actually orchestrated, needlessly as it transpired, and it may be that 2024 sees it emerge significantly again. 14 years of Tory led governments by then and a Starmer led less socialist more social democratic Labour Party on electoral offer. In tabloid speak, is this a perfect storm for anti Tory tactical voting, I wonder??

The Left are going to have to game our existing first past the post electoral system somehow. Pragmatism and expediency must be the watchwords rather than the lure of ballot box purity and the desire to lead blameless and unimpeachable voting lives. I've never had much time for the virtuous loser in politics.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

@ Mandolinist

Like you I would consider voting Green, but never LD

steve
Brown led Labour party

Clegg irrespective of any electoral arithmatic was never going to support Brown - he loathes him with a passion, and ideologically was much closer to the Tories, the reason he was LD and not Tory was mainly down to his views on Europe.

[leftieliberal]

Dec 27, 2021 13:15:37 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Good afternoon from an absolutely atrocious day in the PSRL
@ graham
Post Coalition many Labour voters do not see the LDs as a centre left party - but rather a centre right party. In terms of current Macroeconomic policy, many commentators place them to the Right of Johnson's government.
A longterm consequence of the Coalition is that many Labour voters are now much more inclined to vote Green - rather than LD

I think the composition of the LD vote varies more over time than the other major parties, and has not only shrank since 2010 but also currently more likely to include former Tory voters who were remain than disaffected Labour voters. In the case of Scotland, former left-leaning LD voters seem to have migrated just as much if not more so to the SNP than Labour, and I can't see them benefiting from any ABT vote North of the border. Compared to the Lab/SNP and Con parties I don’t think they have as big or as consistent base support, or a particular demographic they can call on for support. For the LD's to pick up seats from the Tories in England they need to attract sufficient numbers of both former Labour and Tory voters without potentially alienating one or the other by attacks on the other two parties. However, the foundation of their support amongst a number of their voters to one extent or another rests on relatively soft foundations compared to the other major parties, with voters 'lending' them their support.

It is also the case that voters are much more inclined to vote for the Lib Dems locally where they recognise that Lib Dem councillors are doing a good job for local residents while not being prepared to vote for the Lib Dems in the same areas nationally. For example in Watford, the Liberal Democrats have run the council continuously since 2003 but have never captured the Parliamentary seat.

[graham]

Briefly the LDs appeared well placed to win Watford but have now fallen back sharply and are no longer in serious contention there.Back in the 1970s and early 1980s the Liberals had high hopes of winning several Liverpool seats based on local government success -'Trevor 'Jones the Vote' etc - but that did not happen beyond David Alton's win at Edge Hill/Mossley Hill.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

@ leftieliberal

It is also the case that voters are much more inclined to vote for the Lib Dems locally where they recognise that Lib Dem councillors are doing a good job for local residents while not being prepared to vote for the Lib Dems in the same areas nationally. For example in Watford, the Liberal Democrats have run the council continuously since 2003 but have never captured the Parliamentary seat

Well currently the LDs hold approx 12% of the council seats in England, Scotland and Wales, which roughly equates in % terms to their current polling. I would argue that other factors rather than people being 'prepared to give the LDs a go' tend to account for the fact they fair better in council elections - lower turnout, concentration of resources/effort etc

[jimjam]

Shirley Williams took Crosby of course in 1981 with no liberal standing I think.

[leftieliberal]

Dec 27, 2021 13:58:31 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

@ leftieliberal

It is also the case that voters are much more inclined to vote for the Lib Dems locally where they recognise that Lib Dem councillors are doing a good job for local residents while not being prepared to vote for the Lib Dems in the same areas nationally. For example in Watford, the Liberal Democrats have run the council continuously since 2003 but have never captured the Parliamentary seat

Well currently the LDs hold approx 12% of the council seats in England, Scotland and Wales, which roughly equates in % terms to their current polling. I would argue that other factors rather than people being 'prepared to give the LDs a go' tend to account for the fact they fair better in council elections - lower turnout, concentration of resources/effort etc

Certainly in the 1990s the Lib Dems got up to around 5000 council seats at a time when they had only about 20 MPs and polling below 20%, so I think that the percentage of council seats held and the percentage in the latest opinion polls is just a coincidence.

[Danny]

Dec 26, 2021 19:27:43 GMT turk said:

Danny

The inferior repeat vaccination program.

Can you just run it by us again why if indeed the vaccination program is so inferior why 90% of people in ITU units are the unvaccinated.

I would love to see a proper analysis of people in hospital with covid listing their ages, vaccination status and other illnesses.

if anyone has a link to such, could they please post it?

Someone reported half the people in hospital in London with covid are not ill with it. Are those seriously ill with covid young unvaccinared people? Or perhaps old vaccinated ones?  Or indeed old unvaccinated ones? I havent seen any evidence young people are generating a large proportion of covid hospital cases whether vaccinated or not,  so its irrelevant whether they get vaccinated.

If its older unvaccinated people getting ill, is there some medical reason why they have selectively failed to be vaccinated? Or indeed younger unvaccnated people with medical conditions who because of that havnt been vaccinated?

In the community unvaccinated people catch no more covid cases than vaccinated post 3 months after their last vaccination. Most unvaccinated people are just as safe as vaccinated ones. Most people in general have always been safe from covid.

So the explanation of exactly what is happening must lie in a proper breakdown of what gorups are getting seiously ill beyond saying more of them are unvaccinated.

Its obvious this explanation is not being given because once it was it would most likely confirm whole swathes of unvaccinted peope are at no more risk than the vaccinated and there is really no point their getting vaccinated.

[John Chanin]

Dec 27, 2021 13:11:54 GMT graham said:

Dec 27, 2021 12:59:35 GMT steve said:

Incidentally I was a Labour party member at the time of the coalition but given I am currently still a liberal democrat party member clearly I've forgiven them.

As it happens I think they would have been far better in 2010 to have offered a confidence and supply arrangement with the Cameron tories Some genuine restrictions on the austerity policies and electoral reform could have been achieved and I suspect given that much of their support wouldn't have been lost we could have avoided the disaster of brexit.

The lib dems shouldn't have entered a formal coalition it's just a shame that the Brown led Labour party did so badly that it ruled out Labour as a viable alternative minority government.
The vast majority of lib dems I know would have been far more comfortable with supporting a Labour regime.

I voted LD at the General Elections of 2001 and 2005 when Charles Kennedy was Leader - but would not seriously consider doing so again if a Labour or Green candidate was standing.I had been a Labour member from 1970 until the end of 1996 when my disillusionment with Blair led me to discontinue my membership. I actually voted Socialist Labour in 1997 and Green in 2010. I returned to voting Labour in 2015 and 2017 - but went Green in 2019. The latter was due entirely to my refusal to support a gender vetted Labour candidate - and totally unrelated to national policy.

Were I living now in Wales or Scotland and faced with just Tory and Plaid or SNP candidates, I would unhesitatingly vote Tory.

Interesting.  I’ve not found anyone before with such a similar record of membership and voting Labour/Liberal as my own.  I have however profound scepticism about the Greens who appear to be the enemy of effective environmental action, despite how they see themselves.  And I’d vote SNP every time to keep the Conservatives out, as many Scots do who are not obsessed by the independence issue.

[Deleted]

The Green Party is one of the most varied parties - perhaps not in terms of voters' perceptions. I know some local organisations that are (were?) dominated by pre-1991 C(ommunist)P members, but also that are dominated by former Conservative Party members

[shevii]

Dec 27, 2021 13:17:31 GMT crossbat11 said:

Dec 27, 2021 12:04:34 GMT steve said:

Maybe it gathers potency and salience on the Left when two factors align; long periods of Tory government and the emergence of a more centrist Labour Party. This was the case in 1997 , when some anti Tory tactical voting was actually orchestrated, needlessly as it transpired, and it may be that 2024 sees it emerge significantly again. 14 years of Tory led governments by then and a Starmer led less socialist more social democratic Labour Party on electoral offer. In tabloid speak, is this a perfect storm for anti Tory tactical voting, I wonder??

I do think there is some potential in a centrist not scaring Tory voters whether they simply move to LD or all the way to Labour.  Corbyn got a vote share in 2017 which would normally have been enough to get a majority (Blair did this on 35% and Cameron did it on 37%) but he scared the horses and turnout increased from the other side as well. Also I have no doubt that Blair was the right person at the right time to get Labour a landslide.

The problem I have with your comment is that a winning formula (and only ONE winning formula that wasn't relevant to Atlee or Wilson manifestos but did cover a few elections lost when fought from the left) from 25 years ago is not really relevant to today- different issues and a different electorate.  Is centrism actually going to be enough to convince someone paying high rents and not being able to afford a house that they should vote for you?  With the NHS and social care and public transport and Green issues all needing a huge injection of funds will anyone be much convinced by a steady as she goes outlook?  What will convince the "will not vote" group, most of whom would probably benefit from a Labour government to actually bother to vote Labour?

I think you are ahead of yourself with the creeping assumption that centrism will be a winning formula next time (of course this all comes down to what policies Starmer does eventually decide on).  Tories are low because of the breaking Covid rules issue and a heavy added sleaze- they were ahead before this.  It is a difficult one for them to get out of because Johnson has to go now I think and that opens up the problematic replacement and possible infighting but as the action hero films go "we've got out of more difficult situations than this before". I can see a situation where Sunak gets in, everything looks a bit better with Covid and brexit and energy prices settle down, he engineers a recovery just before election time and those key voters start to think everything is looking rosy.  The other one to watch is the tabloids and I feel they are in a holding pattern with Starmer as a decent enough sub for them if the wheels really do come off but if they want to go for him they will, and we're back to 2015 where it seemed right up to the last minute that we were going to get some sort of Miliband government and didn't.

[tancred]

Dec 27, 2021 12:55:57 GMT mandolinist said:

Steve, Graham. Annecdote alert. I am a left of centre, remainer woman, I would never vote LD. I would vote Green, but locally it would split the vote, so I may well be forced to stick with our very unsatisfactory Labour MP.

Why would you never vote LD?  Seems a bit over the top.  

[Deleted]

shevii

@" What will convince the "will not vote" group, most of whom would probably benefit from a Labour government to actually bother to vote Labour?"

My words but a whisper your deafness a SHOUT.
I may make you feel but I can't make you think.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=FERNwBdBt4c

[thexterminatingdalek]

Dec 27, 2021 11:34:43 GMT colin said:

I share Jim Jam's view that Starmer's policy looks "statesmanlike". And on that particular vote I thought it placed him as opposed to Baker et al, rather than supportive of Johnson.

I think this is the right approach when a national emergency is the agenda.
 

Of course that's how any politically engaged, reasonable person would view it, but I don't believe we're dealing with sanity where Johnson and Baker and the rest of the CRG are concerned.

What I'm concerned with is cut through to the politically disengaged, those who will decide the next election. If they fail to notice Starmer being noble and valiant, as they haven't so far, I see no mileage in it for Labour.

Apart from selling out the promises he made before becoming leader, what concerns me most is his lack of fighting spirit. At some point he needs to stand up and announce the line he will not cross. He cannot beat the Tories by simply being not Johnson, as Johnson is unlikely to be there at the next election.

[alec]

colin - "I share Jim Jam's view that Starmer's policy looks "statesmanlike". And on that particular vote I thought it placed him as opposed to Baker et al, rather than supportive of Johnson."

Agree also. There were some on the left who wanted to see Starmer attack Johnson at every turn over covid, but for an opposition leader I think he did this right. Raising awkward questions, usually being ahead of the game in saying what should be done, but supporting where appropriate. Rarely, I think, has any opposition really made political progress from attacking while the country is in a crisis. The point is to attempt to construct a narrative which can them form the basis of a political message once things calm down.

BTW - did your Christmas go OK? I lost track of which posters were trying/failing to share the day with family, testing negative/positive etc.

[thexterminatingdalek]

Dec 27, 2021 12:29:55 GMT graham said:

Post Coalition many Labour voters do not see the LDs as a centre left party - but rather a centre right party.

Post Corbyn, many Labour voters don't see Labour as a centre left party either

[alec]

mandolinist "...remainer woman...

Now you've got me. Forgive me, but I get lost in the jungle of modern gender nomenclature.

Is that a women who is still a woman?
Or a woman who became a man but still feels a bit like a woman sometimes?
Or a man who became a woman who then considered going back to being a man but decided against it?

[thexterminatingdalek]

Dec 27, 2021 15:24:27 GMT alec said:

colin - "I share Jim Jam's view that Starmer's policy looks "statesmanlike". And on that particular vote I thought it placed him as opposed to Baker et al, rather than supportive of Johnson."

Agree also. There were some on the left who wanted to see Starmer attack Johnson at every turn over covid, but for an opposition leader I think he did this right. Raising awkward questions, usually being ahead of the game in saying what should be done, but supporting where appropriate. Rarely, I think, has any opposition really made political progress from attacking while the country is in a crisis. The point is to attempt to construct a narrative which can them form the basis of a political message once things calm down.

For the record, I think you are both probably correct. What concerns me is Labour failing to recognise the right moment to jump, which I expect should be sooner rather than later.

[Deleted]

Dec 27, 2021 15:22:47 GMT thexterminatingdalek said:

Dec 27, 2021 11:34:43 GMT colin said:

thexterminatingdalek

So you want to engage the "politically disengaged " by having Starmer say-I know the country needs these Public Health controls-but I'm going to vote against them with Steve Baker and ensure we don't have them-so I can make Johnson's life even more difficult .

Who are these voters ?. Do you think the country really needs them?

[hireton]

Scottish Parliament recalled to meet on Wednesday. Infection figures for Scotland over the weekend look serious: 8,252 on Saturday, 11,030 and 10,562 today. It will be interesting to see what teh figures for England are.

[mandolinist]

Tancred, I once voted LD, in a European election, just after the Iraq war. Even with Charles Kennedy as leader I felt somehow grubby.
Alec, I am not sure if you are playing games or my grammar was as bad as you suggest. I am a woman, who voted remain.

[Deleted]

Longer Covid specific issues post on the Issue Specific thread: Covid but since lots of folks insist on posting Covid specific issues on the main thread then FWIW the NHS England Hospital data can be found on:

'Daily Admissions and Beds 27 December 2021 (XLSX, 41KB)'

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

The '400' London admission numbers on 24Dec wasn't breached (actual was 278)

[paulnish]

Dec 27, 2021 12:49:31 GMT steve said:

Graham
Indications in the last two successful by election wins for the liberal democrats clearly doesn't support that assumption.The

I suspect it's confined to a relatively few Labour activists of the corbyn persuasion.
The electorate is a bit less doctrinal.

Given that the liberal democrats are the only major UK party ( no offence to the greens) to have as party policy rejoining the European union including the entire social chapter .Support raising the highest rate of income tax, support substantial raises in minimum wage ,support higher corporation tax, support fining those who hide assets offshore with a 100% increase in tax on those who are caught. To assume they are to the right of the Spaffer regime is novel.
I have no idea who these " commentators "are but they are clearly talking total bollocks.

Steve, surly we have all learned that it doesn’t matter what their policies/manifesto says. They will abandon them at a moment’s notice.

[jimjam]

I think Starmer did abstain too often in the first 12 months or so as he was worried about being seen to vote against popular measures, indeed measures the party would back.

Abstaining because there were elements that the party could not support but appeared indecisive. (Spy Cops being the obvious one were he was too timid imo).

Forgive me if am misrepresenting TED but now being willing to vote against these kinds of measures would be the kind of approach he would prefer.

I think we are in a period were Starmers' confidence is high enough to move to this m.o.

[shevii]

Dec 27, 2021 15:46:47 GMT mandolinist said:

Alec, I am not sure if you are playing games or my grammar was as bad as you suggest. I am a woman, who voted remain.

I was a bit puzzled by that Alec comment as well!