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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 27, 2021 10:01:25 GMT
Still on 96 though ?? The site computer must be on holiday . You're stuck on 298 Colin and my posts have ground to a halt at 221. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 27, 2021 10:04:00 GMT
Still on 96 though ?? The site computer must be on holiday . I'm the Joe Root of posting. I can't convert half centuries into centuries. Caught in the nervous nineties again. I need a couple of quick singles! This could be one of them.😂👍 |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 27, 2021 10:04:23 GMT
Ooo'er
It seems I was wrong.
Both Batty's and mine crept up by one.
I'm wondering if you get a point for a quote post but not for a quick reply.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 27, 2021 10:06:16 GMT
Too complicated for a blurry bank Holiday morning head.
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 27, 2021 10:10:31 GMT
Crossbat
I
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steve
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Post by steve on Dec 27, 2021 10:10:56 GMT
Don't know what you could mean!
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 27, 2021 10:15:12 GMT
Don't know what you could mean! You will note I liked your second post but not the first so much. It lacked substance, I thought. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 27, 2021 10:19:22 GMT
Don't know what you could mean! You will note I liked your second post but not the first so much. It lacked substance, I thought. Does that mean the poor sap has to go back to his first and seconds posts in November Batty and if so, as a reviewer you are what one might call succinct but very, very late. |
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Post by hireton on Dec 27, 2021 10:22:58 GMT
A thread by a prominent Tory giving an assessment of current polling and its implications ( Colville has an article in the Times as well if you can get behind the paywall)
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Post by James E on Dec 27, 2021 10:26:28 GMT
@ Colin I think there is good reason to doubt the low vote shares that Focaldata show for the SNP and PC. To take these in turn, the 37% share for the SNP is far lower than their share in 25 Scotland Westminster polls during 2021, which have ranged between 51% and 45% support for the SNP. So this is 8 points lower than any full Scottish poll for Westminster. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#ScotlandIn Wales, the position is not quite so clear cut, but the Plaid 12% share is also below each of the 7 Wales Westminster polls in 2021, which range from 13% to 18%. So I would not believe tha 10 SNP losses to Labour, nor the 3 PC losses that Focaldata show. Apart from that, the seats figures may be bradly correct: an 8-point Lab lead would probably just about get labour to (approx) 325 seats, and the constituency figures take no account of tactical voting. This would probably deprive the Tories of some seats in England, and maybe take some off the SNP in Scotland. |
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Post by bardin1 on Dec 27, 2021 10:28:20 GMT
I think that without an LD sitting MP it is not impossible that there would be a latent Lab support of 25% there (and more with a two horse race Con/Lab squeeze) in much the same way that Wimbledon was won by Labour in 1997 and 2nd place is currently being contested. Realistically though it seems very unlikely Lab would be anywhere near 20% on current optics and Davey incumbency. In 2017 there was clear water between Lab and LD on policy but currently probably less than at any time apart from pre 1997. LD having been in coalition and the Corbynista factor probably led to more stickiness in the Labour vote in 2017 that got them that 15%. At best it seems that focaldata MRP is predicting that sort of result if no-one had a clue who was the best ABT or had no reason to vote ABT because of PR or whatever. For whatever reason, Davey - despite being the incumbent - lost vote share in both 2005 and 2010. At both elections he underperformed his national party's result. He is ,of course, very much an Orange Booker- a label which perhaps alienates him from left of centre voters who might be prepared to consider voting tactically. In terms of macroeconomic policy there is actually quite a big gap between his approach and what Labour would be likely to offer. Indeed his insistence on fiscal prudence etc places him to the Right of Johnson and makes him appear much more in the mould of Sunak and Osborne et al. For that reason, I can well imagine that many local Labour voters would not be attracted to him. With regard to the 2005 and 2010 elections you have to factor in that Davey achieved a huge swing in 2001, when the Conservatives fielded a (MO) spectacularly bad out of town, scandal ridden candidate - responsible for the Pamela Bordes scandal. In 2005 the Conservatives fielded an able local candidate, who has been leader of the Council and was leader of their group. In 2010 they again fielded a good candidate (a high flyer, now a cabinet minister - Helen Whateley). So I think there was an element of returning conservatives (It had been very safe before Davey arrived on the scene) and good candidates. Having lived there for 30 years prior to returning to Scotland (and played five a sides once on a team with Ed Davey!) the demographic profile of the seat has changed over the years to more a straight LD/ Tories fight if anything. |
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Post by thexterminatingdalek on Dec 27, 2021 10:30:28 GMT
Colin The Steve Baker faction were not in line with public opinion on Covid controls-Johnson was. That is the tragedy of the man-right there. At some point Labour will need to back away from their role of providing support for Johnson against his own party, lest some slightly to the right of me and folk heading further in the opposite direction decide there really isn't the width of a cigarette paper between them and go Green or Galloway. As you say, Johnson has allowed himself to fall victim to a minority even in his own party who simply make more noise and are more prone to threatening to take their ball home. If I were Mandelson, I'd look for a Frost style fake hill to die on and withdraw from participating on an important and divisive vote at the last possible moment to gauge just how split the Tories are. Government wins vote, regardless of how it's achieved, will never cut through into music radio headlines, and saving Johnson from himself doesn't strike me as a good use of the opposition's time, particularly since his claims to the contrary at the Wednesday event are rarely challenged. |
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Post by jimjam on Dec 27, 2021 10:41:43 GMT
TED, Labour voting to get the PMs Plan B through blunts, arguably renders totally ineffective, the charge of the opposition playing with politics.
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Post by bantams on Dec 27, 2021 10:48:21 GMT
Still on 96 though ?? The site computer must be on holiday . I'm the Joe Root of posting. I can't convert half centuries into centuries. Caught in the nervous nineties again. I need a couple of quick singles! This could be one of them.😂👍 Howzat? |
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Post by thexterminatingdalek on Dec 27, 2021 11:13:19 GMT
TED, Labour voting to get the PMs Plan B through blunts, arguably renders totally ineffective, the charge of the opposition playing with politics. Agreed, and my head remains divided on the matter. The last time I could bring myself to listen to the monthly focus group on Matt Chorley's Times podcast, the criteria for entry appearing to be knowing nothing about politics and caring less, what was cutting through was Captain Hindsight, vaccinating and vacillating and Labour playing politics, and the beginnings of Tory sleaze on the other side. At no point did any of them pipe up and observe that a minority of headbangers make it necessary for Starmer to save Johnson from his own party on a bi-weekly basis. Many, indeed, including myself, might consider Labour's eagerness to do this as playing the very politics alluded to. I guess they calculate on balance this will do more harm to Johnson eventually than the alternative, but I see no sign of it yet doing them any good. |
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Post by thexterminatingdalek on Dec 27, 2021 11:16:18 GMT
So how many posts do you need before getting upgraded? If it's many beyond 37 I'll need to be even more frugal with my opinions in the new year.
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Post by robert on Dec 27, 2021 11:19:35 GMT
Colin That poll does indeed look dire for the Tories and it may well be a permanent shift in fortunes, which we would normally be seeing after a party has been in Government for 11 years. However, it is a little early for the left to be salivating just yet. As others have said, we could be 3 years from the next GE and if a week is a long time in politics, what's three years? What worries me is that, like the extreme left of Labour, the extreme right of the Tories believe that the reason for their woes is the fact that their policies are not extreme enough. Labour under Starmer and with a competent reshuffle behind him, is demonstrating that the extreme left is wrong, on that score. Competence is what counts too. Who is there in the Tory party to tread a similar path (there are obviously one or two candidates) but will they have a chance to be elected new leader, when a third of the party can be said to be more extreme than Thatcher ever was? Interesting times and your post is one to bookmark for 3 years time. I would be careful before throwing around phrases like 'extreme left' and 'extreme right' as neither of these has any genuine presence in either of the two major parties. What we do have is a 'hard' left and a 'hard' right in these parties, not jackboot wearing black-shirted stormtroopers or cloth capped leather jacketed Leninists wielding red flags and iron bars. Semantics dear chap. But it's what this site is good at. Argue the irrelevant rather than the substantive point. Anyway, just how many angels do YOU thing you can get on a pin? |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2021 11:22:54 GMT
......that resident site scoundrel...... You shouldn’t talk about our chum like that Batmeister. Will have a proper conversation with you about this when you’ve reached the appropriate status. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 27, 2021 11:27:03 GMT
So how many posts do you need before getting upgraded? If it's many beyond 37 I'll need to be even more frugal with my opinions in the new year. AFAIK it is 50 to get to Junior Member, 100 to get to Full Member and 250 to get to Senior Member, so you have another 12 free postings. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2021 11:29:19 GMT
Still on 96 though ?? The site computer must be on holiday . You're stuck on 298 Colin and my posts have ground to a halt at 221. Hmmm-there's a selective process at work it seems. Perhaps Mark can explain it to us ? |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2021 11:30:54 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2021 11:34:43 GMT
Colin The Steve Baker faction were not in line with public opinion on Covid controls-Johnson was. That is the tragedy of the man-right there. At some point Labour will need to back away from their role of providing support for Johnson against his own party, lest some slightly to the right of me and folk heading further in the opposite direction decide there really isn't the width of a cigarette paper between them and go Green or Galloway. As you say, Johnson has allowed himself to fall victim to a minority even in his own party who simply make more noise and are more prone to threatening to take their ball home. If I were Mandelson, I'd look for a Frost style fake hill to die on and withdraw from participating on an important and divisive vote at the last possible moment to gauge just how split the Tories are. Government wins vote, regardless of how it's achieved, will never cut through into music radio headlines, and saving Johnson from himself doesn't strike me as a good use of the opposition's time, particularly since his claims to the contrary at the Wednesday event are rarely challenged. I share Jim Jam's view that Starmer's policy looks "statesmanlike". And on that particular vote I thought it placed him as opposed to Baker et al, rather than supportive of Johnson. I think this is the right approach when a national emergency is the agenda. |
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Post by graham on Dec 27, 2021 11:46:30 GMT
@ Colin I think there is good reason to doubt the low vote shares that Focaldata show for the SNP and PC. To take these in turn, the 37% share for the SNP is far lower than their share in 25 Scotland Westminster polls during 2021, which have ranged between 51% and 45% support for the SNP. So this is 8 points lower than any full Scottish poll for Westminster. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#ScotlandIn Wales, the position is not quite so clear cut, but the Plaid 12% share is also below each of the 7 Wales Westminster polls in 2021, which range from 13% to 18%. So I would not believe tha 10 SNP losses to Labour, nor the 3 PC losses that Focaldata show. Apart from that, the seats figures may be bradly correct: an 8-point Lab lead would probably just about get labour to (approx) 325 seats, and the constituency figures take no account of tactical voting. This would probably deprive the Tories of some seats in England, and maybe take some off the SNP in Scotland. In Wales I actually believe it unlikely that Plaid would exceed 10% - 12% in a Westminster election. Re- the SNP vote in Scotland, I suspect that quite a bit of their support is 'soft' - as we saw in 2017 when their almost 50% share from 2015 fell back to 36% or so. I can well see that happening again if Labour is perceived to be in the ascendant - and Labour could then be close to 30% with the potential for quite substantial gains there. Whether we are beginning to see this happen is another matter. |
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Post by bantams on Dec 27, 2021 11:55:14 GMT
@ Colin I think there is good reason to doubt the low vote shares that Focaldata show for the SNP and PC. To take these in turn, the 37% share for the SNP is far lower than their share in 25 Scotland Westminster polls during 2021, which have ranged between 51% and 45% support for the SNP. So this is 8 points lower than any full Scottish poll for Westminster. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#ScotlandIn Wales, the position is not quite so clear cut, but the Plaid 12% share is also below each of the 7 Wales Westminster polls in 2021, which range from 13% to 18%. So I would not believe tha 10 SNP losses to Labour, nor the 3 PC losses that Focaldata show. Apart from that, the seats figures may be bradly correct: an 8-point Lab lead would probably just about get labour to (approx) 325 seats, and the constituency figures take no account of tactical voting. This would probably deprive the Tories of some seats in England, and maybe take some off the SNP in Scotland. In Wales I actually believe it unlikely that Plaid would exceed 10% - 12% in a Westminster election. Re- the SNP vote in Scotland, I suspect that quite a bit of their support is 'soft' - as we saw in 2017 when their almost 50% share from 2015 fell back to 36% or so. I can well see that happening again if Labour is perceived to be in the ascendant - and Labour could then be close to 30% with the potential for quite substantial gains there. Whether we are beginning to see this happen is another matter. SNP "soft"? Wait until OldNat reads this. The wrath of Perthshire will descend on your wotsit from a great height! |
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Post by crossbat11 on Dec 27, 2021 11:58:20 GMT
@ Colin I think there is good reason to doubt the low vote shares that Focaldata show for the SNP and PC. To take these in turn, the 37% share for the SNP is far lower than their share in 25 Scotland Westminster polls during 2021, which have ranged between 51% and 45% support for the SNP. So this is 8 points lower than any full Scottish poll for Westminster. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#ScotlandIn Wales, the position is not quite so clear cut, but the Plaid 12% share is also below each of the 7 Wales Westminster polls in 2021, which range from 13% to 18%. So I would not believe tha 10 SNP losses to Labour, nor the 3 PC losses that Focaldata show. Apart from that, the seats figures may be bradly correct: an 8-point Lab lead would probably just about get labour to (approx) 325 seats, and the constituency figures take no account of tactical voting. This would probably deprive the Tories of some seats in England, and maybe take some off the SNP in Scotland. In Wales I actually believe it unlikely that Plaid would exceed 10% - 12% in a Westminster election. Re- the SNP vote in Scotland, I suspect that quite a bit of their support is 'soft' - as we saw in 2017 when their almost 50% share from 2015 fell back to 36% or so. I can well see that happening again if Labour is perceived to be in the ascendant - and Labour could then be close to 30% with the potential for quite substantial gains there. Whether we are beginning to see this happen is another matter. It might be interesting to see how the current Labour and Plaid Cymru "non-agression" pact plays out electorally too. As with the Tories and Lib Dems in 2015, does it invariably favour the bigger party in the relationship? |
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Post by steve on Dec 27, 2021 12:04:34 GMT
Graham
Starmer has made it clear that getting rid of the Tory government is the only priority and while Labour party constitution prevents them standing down candidates it doesn't make them require to actively campaign where the liberal democrat ( and it is almost exclusively liberal democrat) is the centre left candidate most likely to unseat a tory.
The lib dems and certainly their voters are normally prepared to reciprocate
I am not sure how this plays out in Scotland with a centre left party already in ascendancy but presumably supporting the centre left candidate not wanting secession would be the logical choice where there isn't a tory incumbent.
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Post by bantams on Dec 27, 2021 12:26:27 GMT
From the woman who predicted Villa would win the Premiership in 2022 (joke!) comes this prediction:
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Post by graham on Dec 27, 2021 12:29:55 GMT
Graham Starmer has made it clear that getting rid of the Tory government is the only priority and while Labour party constitution prevents them standing down candidates it doesn't make them require to actively campaign where the liberal democrat ( and it is almost exclusively liberal democrat) is the centre left candidate most likely to unseat a tory. The lib dems and certainly their voters are normally prepared to reciprocate I am not sure how this plays out in Scotland with a centre left party already in ascendancy but presumably supporting the centre left candidate not wanting secession would be the logical choice where there isn't a tory incumbent. Post Coalition many Labour voters do not see the LDs as a centre left party - but rather a centre right party. In terms of current Macroeconomic policy, many commentators place them to the Right of Johnson's government.
A longterm consequence of the Coalition is that many Labour voters are now much more inclined to vote Green - rather than LD.
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Post by steve on Dec 27, 2021 12:49:31 GMT
Graham
Indications in the last two successful by election wins for the liberal democrats clearly doesn't support that assumption.The
I suspect it's confined to a relatively few Labour activists of the corbyn persuasion.
The electorate is a bit less doctrinal.
Given that the liberal democrats are the only major UK party ( no offence to the greens) to have as party policy rejoining the European union including the entire social chapter .Support raising the highest rate of income tax, support substantial raises in minimum wage ,support higher corporation tax, support fining those who hide assets offshore with a 100% increase in tax on those who are caught. To assume they are to the right of the Spaffer regime is novel.
I have no idea who these " commentators "are but they are clearly talking total bollocks.
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Post by mandolinist on Dec 27, 2021 12:55:57 GMT
Steve, Graham. Annecdote alert. I am a left of centre, remainer woman, I would never vote LD. I would vote Green, but locally it would split the vote, so I may well be forced to stick with our very unsatisfactory Labour MP.
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