8-Dec-2021 : LAB: 40 / CON: 34 / LDEM: 10 / GRN: 4

[robert]

Dec 26, 2021 14:06:16 GMT graham said:

Dec 26, 2021 13:48:38 GMT robert said:

Colin

That poll does indeed look dire for the Tories and it may well be a permanent shift in fortunes, which we would normally be seeing after a party has been in Government for 11 years. However, it is a little early for the left to be salivating just yet. As others have said, we could be 4 years from the next GE and if a week is a long time in politics, what's four years?

What worries me is that, like the extreme left of Labour, the extreme right of the Tories believe that the reason for their woes is the fact that their policies are not extreme enough. Labour under Starmer and with a competent reshuffle behind him, is demonstrating that the extreme left is wrong, on that score. Competence is what counts too. Who is there in the Tory party to tread a similar path (there are obviously one or two candidates) but will they have a chance to be elected new leader, when a third of the party can be said to be more extreme than Thatcher ever was?

Interesting times and your post is one to bookmark for 4 years time.

How do you arrive at 4 years - given that the last GE is over 2 years ago? It is surely now less than 3 years to polling day.

Oops, you are quite correct. Original post corrected. My point still stands though,  even 3 years is a lot longer than a week.

[graham]

Interesting to see that the MRP survey has Labour winning Wimbledon! That will provide useful material for election leaflets to deter tactical voting.

The survey also appears to show Labour winning 11 seats in Scotland.

[guymonde]

All this talk about FTPA and possible polling dates.
Someone will be able to answer this, but what would actually stop a government with an 80 seat majority simply deciding to pass a bill to delay the election another few years, or indefinitely?
Seems to me this government has shown plenty of willingness to ignore custom, practice and the unwritten constitution and you might argue that it would be so outrageous they'd never get away with it but what would actually stop an unscrupulous govt? Maybe the Lords, but they could always pack it with a few ringers if they got uppity.

[oldnat]

Graham

"The survey also appears to show Labour winning 10 seats in Scotland."

The Electoral Calculus /FON doesn't show that. 


www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_mrppoll_20211203.html

In fact, it shows them losing Edinburgh South, and the SNP winning all 59 seats (which seems unlikely!)

What source are you using?

[graham]

It is based on the Focal Data Survey in today's Sunday Times. Survey dates were 01 Dec - 21st December. It is more recent that the data you refer to above.

[jib]

Dec 26, 2021 18:00:06 GMT guymonde said:

All this talk about FTPA and possible polling dates.
Someone will be able to answer this, but what would actually stop a government with an 80 seat majority simply deciding to pass a bill to delay the election another few years, or indefinitely?
Seems to me this government has shown plenty of willingness to ignore custom, practice and the unwritten constitution and you might argue that it would be so outrageous they'd never get away with it but what would actually stop an unscrupulous govt? Maybe the Lords, but they could always pack it with a few ringers if they got uppity.

That's a Dictatorship.

Boris maybe a bit of a buffoon, but he ain't that!

The idea of hanging on to December 2024 in interesting, but that would be the max.

[graham]

Dec 26, 2021 18:00:06 GMT guymonde said:

All this talk about FTPA and possible polling dates.
Someone will be able to answer this, but what would actually stop a government with an 80 seat majority simply deciding to pass a bill to delay the election another few years, or indefinitely?
Seems to me this government has shown plenty of willingness to ignore custom, practice and the unwritten constitution and you might argue that it would be so outrageous they'd never get away with it but what would actually stop an unscrupulous govt? Maybe the Lords, but they could always pack it with a few ringers if they got uppity.

No - the Monarch would dismiss him before that happened - and he would be ditched by his own MPs.

[Danny]

crossbat,
I thought it rather good news myself.

Dec 26, 2021 12:43:59 GMT alec said:

The more immediate concerns though are with covid. Amongst my bewilderment at the similarly cult like beief that things will be fine because Omicron is less serious, we now see London admissions doubling in a week, up to the 22nd. Problems coming. Meanwhile, papers in Nature show the seriousness of long covid, with much higher chances of life threatening conditions after initial covid recovery and no correlation between severity of infection and presence of persistent long covid.

It's time to lay to bed this doubling fallacy. Covid has hardly ever shown exponential growth and never for more than a few weeks . Maybe half a dozen doublings. It has never seemingly involved more than a small percentage of the population, though the reality is probably most people had enough immunity they never got ill enough to notice.

It's annoying scaremongerers like to quote numbers doubling and redoubling, but if the never reach significant totals it's meaningless.

As to long covid there seems to be a demonstrated correlation between catching more severe than average covid and other illness. Absolutely. But what is that telling us we didn't know when we found the average age dying from covid was 81 and the massive proportion of deaths coming from care homes? It's just as accurate to say if you catch a serious case of covid it is an indicator you already had something else wrong with you even if you didn't know it.

Havnt checked Zoe today but at R=1.4 for London yesterday, it's clear rise has been far slower than government claims and is not dissimilar to past experience. Rise has been linear not exponential and therfore R Is now falling. The pattern of infection has now started to change, but as yet nothing is inconsistent with a re run of past waves....only milder.

It's positively harmful to always plan based upon the worst conceivable outcome as should by now be apparent.
Sweden did better than uk by minimising restrictions. South Africa thinks it may have beaten covid, and the omicron wave is the last step in their natural vaccination program. Which is of course fantastically cheaper than attempting the inferior repeat manufactured vaccination program which has by now become absurd.Israel is trying a fourth dose. Don't you see how crazy it is repeating the same failed approach?

[domjg]

Dec 26, 2021 11:57:23 GMT tancred said:

I listen to Classic FM - not as often as I used to though. The yearly "Hall of Fame" seems to have become a brexiter's dream, with huge numbers of entries by Elgar and Vaughan-Williams, which, though undoubtedly composers of great talent, do not compare with the very greatest of composers. Furthermore, the "Lark Ascending" winning the competition repeatedly year after year seems to confirm how parochial and nationalistic even fans of classical music are in this country. I suspect that those years when Rachmaninov and Tchaikovsky won it was probably the handiwork of Putin's agents!

tancred If you’re into classical music in this country Radio 3 is the only game in town. I’ve a lot of time for Vaughn Williams though he does seem to have been hijacked of late. He was unconventional and curious. My choir did his Fantasia on Christmas carols as part of our Christmas concert. Mr syrupy/bombast Elgar on the other hand can go do one..

[turk]

Danny

The inferior repeat vaccination program.

Can you just run it by us again why if indeed the vaccination program is so inferior why 90% of people in ITU units are the unvaccinated.

[turk]

Danny

Should be icu not itu.

[mercian]

As our esteemed founder/moderator has said, there is a separate thread for covid musings unrelated to polling.

[shevii]

@james E

It looks shockingly bad! Maybe it's swings and roundabouts overall, but no sign of giving a dominant ABT bonus (with different rules applying in Scotland)- Lab 24% in Ed Davey's seat up from 10%? As you say those Glasgow gains from SNP look very unlikely even if there is a unionist swing Con to Lab. The Opinium full Scottish shows an increase in the SNP share of vote of 3% and Lab 3.4% and Opinium was a little bit above for Labour.

[graham]

Dec 26, 2021 20:11:41 GMT shevii said:

@james E

It looks shockingly bad! Maybe it's swings and roundabouts overall, but no sign of giving a dominant ABT bonus (with different rules applying in Scotland)- Lab 24% in Ed Davey's seat up from 10%? As you say those Glasgow gains from SNP look very unlikely even if there is a unionist swing Con to Lab. The Opinium full Scottish shows an increase in the SNP share of vote of 3% and Lab 3.4% and Opinium was a little bit above for Labour.

I rather disagree re- Glasgow. Labour did win a seat there in 2017 and was well within range in every other seat in the city. I have also read suggestions that Labour may well take back Glasgow at this year's local elections. Were that to happen it would be a useful launching pad for the parliamentary seats.

[jib]

graham

Labour are the only viable opposition to the SNP in Scotland.

The Tories maxed out in 2017 by a quirk of fate. I would not be surprised to see no Tory MP in Scotland in 2024.

[eor]

It's being quoted as fact by some who I suspect wish to believe it but... given the Focaldata survey was done 1st-21st Dec and it is now 26th Dec, what "additional poll" could confidently have determined their findings to represent a permanent shift rather than a transient one?

[Deleted]

Dec 26, 2021 19:36:46 GMT mercian said:

As our esteemed founder/moderator has said, there is a separate thread for covid musings unrelated to polling.

Blimey! That’s news to me.....

(Well, news to some anyway.)

[mercian]

Danny
I've just noticed that all your posts are 'from mobile'. I'm seriously impressed that you can write such massive posts using that technology. You must have thumbs like tree-trunks!

[bantams]

Dec 26, 2021 20:23:58 GMT graham said:

Dec 26, 2021 20:11:41 GMT shevii said:

@james E

It looks shockingly bad! Maybe it's swings and roundabouts overall, but no sign of giving a dominant ABT bonus (with different rules applying in Scotland)- Lab 24% in Ed Davey's seat up from 10%? As you say those Glasgow gains from SNP look very unlikely even if there is a unionist swing Con to Lab. The Opinium full Scottish shows an increase in the SNP share of vote of 3% and Lab 3.4% and Opinium was a little bit above for Labour.

I rather disagree re- Glasgow. Labour did win a seat there in 2017 and was well within range in every other seat in the city. I have also read suggestions that Labour may well take back Glasgow at this year's local elections. Were that to happen it would be a useful launching pad for the parliamentary seats.

I fear you're getting carried away Graham. As oft been discussed on here, Labour's lead is despite of Labour, not because of it. Nothing new has been offered, it's purely down to a series of own goals by No 10. There will be a fightback, whether or not it's successful is another thing completely.

[eor]

Dec 26, 2021 11:57:23 GMT tancred said:

I listen to Classic FM - not as often as I used to though. The yearly "Hall of Fame" seems to have become a brexiter's dream, with huge numbers of entries by Elgar and Vaughan-Williams, which, though undoubtedly composers of great talent, do not compare with the very greatest of composers.

Not sure the data is on your side there! Beethoven alone has more top 20 entries than those two combined. And the (to me, utterly unfathomable) Lark ascended to the upper echelons about a decade before Brexit hove into view, with Elgar's popularity at best described as static over the years.

[graham]

Dec 26, 2021 20:45:02 GMT James E said:

Graham

It would be useful if Focaldata could provide the poling data underpinning their figures. They show the SNP falling back by around 10 points in every constituency I have checked, and getting a touch under 40% in all the Glasgow constituencies.

Other polling does not show anything like this - most Scottish polls show the SNP still around the 45% they took then.


Edit - I have gone into their tables, and Focaldata's figures for Scotland are:
SNP 37% (-8)
Lab 27% (+8)
Con 18% (-7)
LD 8% (-1.5)

This is surprising, as they show the SNP retaining 85% of their 2019, similar to the Labour Party (86%), and far better than Cons or LDs. Given that their 37% share is about 85% of what they achieved in GE2019, it would seem that Focaldata have them picking up almost zero voters from other parties on those who did not vote. 

The Labour and SNP figures you show there are actually pretty close to the 2017 result - with the Tories a lot lower.

[graham]

Dec 26, 2021 22:09:12 GMT bantams said:

Dec 26, 2021 20:23:58 GMT graham said:

I rather disagree re- Glasgow. Labour did win a seat there in 2017 and was well within range in every other seat in the city. I have also read suggestions that Labour may well take back Glasgow at this year's local elections. Were that to happen it would be a useful launching pad for the parliamentary seats.

I fear you're getting carried away Graham. As oft been discussed on here, Labour's lead is despite of Labour, not because of it. Nothing new has been offered, it's purely down to a series of own goals by No 10. There will be a fightback, whether or not it's successful is another thing completely.

It was ever thus in politics!

[mercian]

Dec 26, 2021 11:57:23 GMT tancred said:

I listen to Classic FM - not as often as I used to though. The yearly "Hall of Fame" seems to have become a brexiter's dream, with huge numbers of entries by Elgar and Vaughan-Williams, which, though undoubtedly composers of great talent, do not compare with the very greatest of composers. Furthermore, the "Lark Ascending" winning the competition repeatedly year after year seems to confirm how parochial and nationalistic even fans of classical music are in this country. I suspect that those years when Rachmaninov and Tchaikovsky won it was probably the handiwork of Putin's agents!

So the politically correct position is that anything British (or even worse English) must be bad and inferior to other stuff and anyone who likes it must be a Brexiteer, if not a fascist. Have I got that right?

[shevii]

James E

Any idea how Lab get 24% in Kingston & Surbiton? Even with a starting point based on National swing I don't understand how 10% becomes 24%- would they get there by saying the LD to Lab swing takes all those LD voters and then a top up with the Con to Lab swing? That's clearly not going to happen in reality but hard to see how any calculation produces that result.

As graham says it's not impossible that a drop in Con support in Scotland produces Labour gains as happened in 2017 via Unionist vote but Focaldata seems to be very out compared to other full Scottish polls anyway and I suspect that ABT vote will still benefit the sitting MP (who is mostly SNP) more than an anti indie vote might lose.

[James E]

I've edited my 20:45 post above regarding Focaldata's MRP.

Focaldata's churn analysis seems to all be at GB level, resulting in Scottish and Welsh parties appearing to pick up close to zero from Con, Lab and LDs.

And their Welsh and Scottish constituency results appear to me to contain an absolutely ridiculous and basic methodological flaw, which disadvantages PC and the SNP (and boosts the total of Labour seats).

[graham]

Dec 26, 2021 22:43:34 GMT shevii said:

James E

Any idea how Lab get 24% in Kingston & Surbiton? Even with a starting point based on National swing I don't understand how 10% becomes 24%- would they get there by saying the LD to Lab swing takes all those LD voters and then a top up with the Con to Lab swing? That's clearly not going to happen in reality but hard to see how any calculation produces that result.

As graham says it's not impossible that a drop in Con support in Scotland produces Labour gains as happened in 2017 via Unionist vote but Focaldata seems to be very out compared to other full Scottish polls anyway and I suspect that ABT vote will still benefit the sitting MP (who is mostly SNP) more than an anti indie vote might lose.

Labour has polled circa 15% there at recent GEs- albeit lower in 2019. A 20% vote share there is not beyond the bounds of possibility.

[graham]

I have made this point before but I do suspect that there is a fair bit SNP/Labour churn between Holyrood and Westminster elections.If labour is clearly in the ascendant at the time of the latter, I expect many former supporters to 'return home'. That said, I am far from persuaded as to the merits of MRP analysis.

[tancred]

Dec 26, 2021 18:00:06 GMT guymonde said:

All this talk about FTPA and possible polling dates.
Someone will be able to answer this, but what would actually stop a government with an 80 seat majority simply deciding to pass a bill to delay the election another few years, or indefinitely?
Seems to me this government has shown plenty of willingness to ignore custom, practice and the unwritten constitution and you might argue that it would be so outrageous they'd never get away with it but what would actually stop an unscrupulous govt? Maybe the Lords, but they could always pack it with a few ringers if they got uppity.

There is nothing that can stop the ruling government from suspending the next election, it was done during WW2.  But the difference is that the wartime government was a Tory led coalition government and that this was a time of national emergency. Just doing it on a whim would be unacceptable even to Johnson's own party colleagues - it would be a constitutional outrage. 

[tancred]

Dec 26, 2021 13:48:38 GMT robert said:

Colin

That poll does indeed look dire for the Tories and it may well be a permanent shift in fortunes, which we would normally be seeing after a party has been in Government for 11 years. However, it is a little early for the left to be salivating just yet. As others have said, we could be 3 years from the next GE and if a week is a long time in politics, what's three years?

What worries me is that, like the extreme left of Labour, the extreme right of the Tories believe that the reason for their woes is the fact that their policies are not extreme enough. Labour under Starmer and with a competent reshuffle behind him, is demonstrating that the extreme left is wrong, on that score. Competence is what counts too. Who is there in the Tory party to tread a similar path (there are obviously one or two candidates) but will they have a chance to be elected new leader, when a third of the party can be said to be more extreme than Thatcher ever was?

Interesting times and your post is one to bookmark for 3 years time.

I would be careful before throwing around phrases like 'extreme left' and 'extreme right' as neither of these has any genuine presence in either of the two major parties. What we do have is a 'hard' left and a 'hard' right in these parties, not jackboot wearing black-shirted stormtroopers or cloth capped leather jacketed Leninists wielding red flags and iron bars. 

[tancred]

Dec 26, 2021 14:01:28 GMT crossbat11 said:

I think I'm right in recalling that the last three losing PMs, Callaghan, Major and Brown all went the maximum parliamentary term, not because of any cunning plan but to try and delay the election until, McCawber like, they hoped something might turn up. Then they ran out of time.

Serial election winners, like Thatcher and Blair, leading confident governments and parties, always went to the country at a time of their choosing and when economic and electoral planets aligned.

If Johnson, or whoever, goes to the last possible time in this parliament, then he and his government is very likely to be in very deep trouble and will be desperately postponing the voters verdict.

History suggests so anyway.

Major went the distance because he was not challenged and replaced - it seems that all the ones who could have challenged him stayed loyal.  Callaghan and Brown made the catastrophic mistakes of not calling a general elections in the autumn of 1978 and 2007 respectively, when it's likely that they would have won overall majorities.