|
|
Post by jib on Dec 20, 2021 0:25:31 GMT
tancred"The European Commissioners operate in the same way - not elected by the people of the member states, but appointed by the elected governments of these states. What is the problem with this?" As I'm not a citizen of the EU, it doesn't concern me. Good luck to them.
|
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Dec 20, 2021 0:42:39 GMT
Of course, the EU is a polity - composed of other polities called states, some of which are themselves composed of smaller polities. Unlike the UK, however, none of the EU states (or their sub-state polities) are so large that they control the entire union. Within the UK, it isn't possible for the polities of Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland to hold the UK government directly accountable (that privileged status is uniquely occupied by the polity of England). If you wish to retain a semblance of logic, then you would agree that Scotland, Wales and NI would be well off out of the UK for that reason alone. Elected representatives from the three minor nations of the UK are directly elected to the UK parliament. Though because of the disparity in population they cannot command a majority on their own, they do have the ability to influence policy and to hold the UK government to account. They can vote on legislation and sometimes win albeit with assistance from other opposition MPs and/or government rebels. They can hold positions on committees for instance too. In other words they are able to influence legislation. This is not true of the EU parliament. It is true for every member of the EU that their MEPs can do all those things in the EU Parliament. You are, I think, a little confused about the difference between the executive and the legislature - that's not surprising for, to those of an insular frame of mind, happy with an FPTP elected Commons and unelected Lords at Westminster, the practical difference is usually minimal. In any Federal or Confederal system, each unit of governance exercises its own sovereignty at both executive and legislative levels. A "union" that doesn't have such characteristics is but an example of imperialism, where all power (including the power to abolish all political activities in the state) lies at the centre. The whines from Brexiteers about the structure of the EU simply betrays their ignorance as to how successful political unions are constructed, because they don't like the idea of sharing sovereignty. They have no problem with a system in which they have the absolute power to make all decisions, but the prospect of not being dominant scares the hell out of them. All of which probably explains why I am a unionist, and you are a nationalist (in terms of political structures). |
|
|
|
Post by statgeek on Dec 20, 2021 2:13:16 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by moby on Dec 20, 2021 4:50:42 GMT
Of course, the EU is a polity - composed of other polities called states, some of which are themselves composed of smaller polities. Unlike the UK, however, none of the EU states (or their sub-state polities) are so large that they control the entire union. Within the UK, it isn't possible for the polities of Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland to hold the UK government directly accountable (that privileged status is uniquely occupied by the polity of England). If you wish to retain a semblance of logic, then you would agree that Scotland, Wales and NI would be well off out of the UK for that reason alone. Elected representatives from the three minor nations of the UK are directly elected to the UK parliament. Though because of the disparity in population they cannot command a majority on their own, they do have the ability to influence policy and to hold the UK government to account. They can vote on legislation and sometimes win albeit with assistance from other opposition MPs and/or government rebels. They can hold positions on committees for instance too. In other words they are able to influence legislation. This is not true of the EU parliament. Who are you calling "minor'? By the way many people in those "minor" nations are really not happy with the political settlement we have. Speaking personally I'd much rather be a "minor" nation in the EU than the UK. Ireland is thriving in the EU whereas we have to put up with a corrupt liar. Im not a nationalist but I know that the Union is not working. Give me membership of a Federal EU any day rather than being the poorest "minor" corner of a moribund UK dominated by English nationalism represented by "Lord Frost' a political unelected appointee, who was responsible for negotiations with my neighbours on my behalf. Now I have to accept Liz Truss is negotiating my future. I tell you that will not go down well in the valleys.What makes me laugh is English nationalists attack the EU for being undemocratic while totally ignoring the democratic deficits in their own political setup, hence we end up with the leaders we have. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Danny on Dec 20, 2021 5:09:05 GMT
I belive politics will drive his response rather than the science politics has always driven the response. don't forget the original decision to for 2 years lockdown was made by cabinet while johnson was ill.So while he might be getting the blame for it, it may not be his fault. The original epidemic plan would have seen far less economic harm and quite possibly less death. |
|
|
|
Post by moby on Dec 20, 2021 5:11:27 GMT
tancred "The European Commissioners operate in the same way - not elected by the people of the member states, but appointed by the elected governments of these states. What is the problem with this?" As I'm not a citizen of the EU, it doesn't concern me. Good luck to them. Many of us would prefer being citizens in the EU than "subjects" in an Westminster dominated UK. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Danny on Dec 20, 2021 5:21:51 GMT
Boris is acutely aware personally of how bad things will be if the NHS is overwhelmed, he's resisted the feelings of a rump of his backbenchers once and I don't doubt he will again if it's deemed necessary. And I think it will be necessary to take more measures, this variant is spreading like wildfire. It's not safe outdoors in crowded places at the moment. so many errors. it's as safe as it's ever going to be right now, so better get used to it. but in fact Zoe data show's a massive scare campaign is under way not justified by real case numbers. there are three big reasons right now why the nhs might be overwhelmed. The first is under funding for ten years meaning it has fewer beds and fewer ICU beds than other comparable services. the second is ten years under funding of council care services meaning 10,000 beds occupied by people ready for discharge who cannot be. The third is a pingdemic sending well people home once general cases rise. which wouldn't be happening except the government chose to rely upon a vaccine which doesn't work to prevent spread. Although it may still work to prevent most severe illness...but we have chosen economic suicide rather than trusting the governments plan to rely on it. |
|
|
|
Post by moby on Dec 20, 2021 5:27:59 GMT
Boris is acutely aware personally of how bad things will be if the NHS is overwhelmed, he's resisted the feelings of a rump of his backbenchers once and I don't doubt he will again if it's deemed necessary. And I think it will be necessary to take more measures, this variant is spreading like wildfire. It's not safe outdoors in crowded places at the moment. so many errors. it's as safe as it's ever going to be right now, so better get used to it. but in fact Zoe data show's a massive scare campaign is under way not justified by real case numbers. there are three big reasons right now why the nhs might be overwhelmed. The first is under funding for ten years meaning it has fewer beds and fewer ICU beds than other comparable services. the second is ten years under funding of council care services meaning 10,000 beds occupied by people ready for discharge who cannot be. The third is a pingdemic sending well people home once general cases rise. which wouldn't be happening except the government chose to rely upon a vaccine which doesn't work to prevent spread. Although it may still work to prevent most severe illness...but we have chosen economic suicide rather than trusting the governments plan to rely on it. Nah Whitty is a safer pair of hands than you and the Tories. Think I'll listen to him. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/17/chris-whitty-v-tory-mp-joy-morrissey-who-to-believe-on-covid |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Danny on Dec 20, 2021 5:42:06 GMT
I think people should stop looking at brexit in terms of peoples political choices. Joining the union was voted in by the very people who voted it out 40 odd years later .Why that happened is the question no. the people who voted in last time are almost all dead. the younger block who voted out last time are now pensioners and voted out again. the blocks did become less enthusiastic as a trend but largely did not change sides. for the future then the question will be how those children now choose. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Dec 20, 2021 6:19:19 GMT
Attachment DeletedWe can't always get the government we like but the least we should expect from a regime is that it contains responsible adults. Just where are the grown ups in the Spaffer administration.
|
|
|
|
Post by moby on Dec 20, 2021 6:58:39 GMT
Steve don't you at least feel safe in the hands of our new chief brexit negotiator? youtu.be/n_wkO4hk07o |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Dec 20, 2021 7:02:55 GMT
Weekly increase in South Africa cases drops to just 4% and weekly increase in deaths also drops from+65% to+23% at around 29 deaths a day in a country of 61 million.
You won't see this mentioned in the UK media as when it comes to covid data good news is no news.
|
|
|
|
Post by alec on Dec 20, 2021 7:04:08 GMT
Conservatives once again making the mistake of waiting for the data before acting. If there is one lesson you need to learn in tis pandemic......
Meanwhile, it's striking how slow and ineffective Sunak's non-response has been. As with previous waves, UK government support has been slower and less effective than many other countries, and badly managed when it does come. Sunak is lucky that UK journalists don't understand foreign countries very well.
|
|
|
|
Post by alec on Dec 20, 2021 7:05:05 GMT
steve - take care. Gauteng province sees a big population drop in December, and SA case updates often lag
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Dec 20, 2021 7:15:20 GMT
Alec
The data's coming in you just need to look.
Not conclusive yet but very positive.
It doesn't justify a lock down.
This government has enough form in taking precipitous actions without considering the consequences.
Latest offering from sage is a doozy suggesting everyone in a household or work place should isolate if anyone becomes infected.
The insanity of this one which in principle would bring every gainful activity and service to a crashing halt to protect people most of whom will be totally or nearly asymptomatic from catching what will overwhelmingly in the rest be a cold is a classic even for the covid centric hysteria of than last two years.
If they had said if you are unvaccinated in these circumstances they would have had a tad more justification.
But everyone wtf was the point of the billions spent on boosters if they still want us all to hide under the bed again?
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Dec 20, 2021 7:20:15 GMT
Alec
Death rates in South Africa overall are higher than the UK .Gauteng province saw over 1500 people murdered last month and thousands others seriously injured from violent attack. It's dangerous there but covid isn't the major reason why.
Doesn't it occur to you that given the hyperbole about omicron that some of those residing in the area with initially the highest cases might have moved.
There seems to be an overwhelming urge among some to be entirely negative in respect of the development of this the second most severe pandemic of the last forty years.
The indicators are that like previous coronal viruses this one is mutating towards just another cold virus, not there yet.
Instead any real world data or research that dares to indicate this is to be disregarded instead modelling based on worst case scenario , which has been consistently far too pessimistic appears to be the only option accepted by some.
We take this approach we'll never return to normality.
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,376
|
Post by neilj on Dec 20, 2021 7:21:09 GMT
Re below link, worth noting Sunday figures are normally lower than other days. Also takes around 5-10 days from infection to hospital admissions, so the figures for hospital admissions are from infections that happened 5-10 days ago
As to deaths there is a lag of around 5 days before we get the full figures for that day. In addition deaths from infection take around 19 days, so the deaths (which as above are almost certainly under reported) are as a result of infections of around 19 days ago.
Another way of putting it is that we won't know hospital admissions from today's infections for around 5-10 days and deaths until around 19 -24 days
I am not saying there will be very large numbers of deaths and hospital admissions, but the data certainly does not support the view there won't be. A degree of caution seems appropriate to me.
|
|
|
|
Post by moby on Dec 20, 2021 7:26:52 GMT
Re below link, worth noting it takes around 5-10 days from infection to hospital admissions, so the figures for hospital admissions are from infections that happened 5-10 days ago As to deaths there is a lag of around 5 days before we get the full figures for that day. In addition deaths from infection take around 19 days, so the deaths (which as above are almost certainly under reported) are as a result of infections of around 19 days ago. Another way of putting it is that we won't know hospital admissions from today's infections for around 5-10 days and deaths until around 29 days I am not saying there will be very large numbers of deaths and hospital admissions, but the data certainly does not support the view there won't be. A degree of caution seems appropriate to me. It's also not just about deaths and hospital numbers but how many NHS staff are off sick, how many teachers, police officers etc.? Its unmanageable without further restrictions. |
|
|
|
Post by alec on Dec 20, 2021 7:27:29 GMT
steve - if I'm wrong, no one dies. If you're wrong......
|
|
|
|
Post by thexterminatingdalek on Dec 20, 2021 7:38:58 GMT
Re Johnson family picnic on the lawn.
Of more interest to me than the gathering itself is the composition of the photo and where it was taken. It looks like a deliberate spot of evidence gathering and framed to incriminate as many individuals as possible rather than capturing a happy family moment for posterity. I wonder whether Mr Cummings has phone records to prove he was in Barnard Castle that day.
Not really surprised the BBC aren't running with it, even though the guidelines at the time prohibited such gatherings, it's unlikely many would now see what was going on there as dangerous in retrospect, and explaining and reminding people of context takes more effort and energy than most seem prepared to accept from their news outlets.
My guess is it's just another story to bank for Johnson's forthcoming day of reckoning. Since my predictions are always wrong, I can say with some certainty it won't be between Easter and July.
Anne McElvoy in the Graun today, and probably others, raise the likelihood that Queen Elizabeth III has been handed the chalice of golden Brexit opportunity to stuff up her prospects of leadership for the time being. I find myself in agreement while again reflecting on stopped clocks being right twice every day.
Frost is a lightweight, bowing out ahead of the jackals either eating his clothes or the populace noticing he never had any. I never thought I'd find myself defending Geoffrey Howe, but the man now looks a titan in comparison.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Dec 20, 2021 7:40:46 GMT
Neil
That's more or less accurate.
Fortunately the UK doesn't exist in isolation from the world South African outbreak around two weeks further advanced with death rates , pro rata one sixth of UK in total, rising by just 20% from date of first full two weeks of omicron cases, the period when growth rate was fastest, this period ended around 19 days ago.
Both death rates and case numbers are now falling.
Be prudent yes but let's not have the pretence that the virus here is somehow uniquely designed to only be influenced by UK data.
Evidence also emerging that omicron is as could be anticipated replacing delta variant in the U.K..
Good news as it's primarily an upper respiratory tract infection and doesn't cause the lung damage and associated pneumonia of previous variants which were the major cause of severe infection.
I am going to keep beating the drum for science and evidence based positivity irrespective of covid hysteria.
Doubt it will make any difference of course.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Dec 20, 2021 7:43:15 GMT
Alec
If you're wrong tens of thousands will die because of cuts in preventative medical treatment.
Of course I won't blame you .
Daft comment no one is suggesting we do nothing simply that we don't make the situation worse.
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,376
|
Post by neilj on Dec 20, 2021 8:01:06 GMT
Steve I appreciate what you say but I am not sure that comparisons with South Africa are that useful. Yes we have a much higher number of vaccinated people, but they have a much higher number of people with prior infections, so probably cancel each other out.
But the big differences are the huge age demographic gap between the UK and South Africa, with the UK having a much older population
Finally it is the middle of summer in South Africa at the moment, with average temperatures of 22 degrees. If the Omicron outbreak in the UK had taken place in our summer, I would be a lot less worried. We know coronavirus and flu generally does not cause so many problems when the weather is warm and we can spend a lot of time outdoors
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Dec 20, 2021 8:07:45 GMT
When Faith was one of the most senior and best qualified clinical nurses at her flag ship London nhs trust she was responsible not only as the overnight manager of the entire trust but also as an ancillary service ran the yearly staff vaccination programme. It always seemed bizarre that a sizable minority of staff simply refused to countenance vaccination , irrespective of the fact that this protected themselves and the service users. There was of course at the time no compulsion. As the grounds for decline were sometimes counter factual or based on some faith based nonsense it was very difficult to get through to them. But to be honest the main reason for decline was that if you were in a patient facing role it was quite nice to have the odd week off on full pay with " the flu" Presumably those wanting a break from work will however reluctantly comply but the others and they number thousands may well be lost at a time when staff shortages are already chronic. www.theguardian.com/society/2021/dec/20/england-hospital-units-may-close-as-staff-revolt-over-jab-mandate-says-nhs-leader |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Dec 20, 2021 8:11:12 GMT
Neil
It's not actually clear on the prior infection daya, it's very high in the UK as well, but evidence suggests vaccination has similar benefits.
South Africa does have a younger age profileb, around 12 years younger.
But this also was the case in previous waves where with similar number of cases daily death rates exceeded 500. Currently it's 30
|
|
|
|
Post by jib on Dec 20, 2021 8:13:55 GMT
neiljGood points. Hopefully Omicron won't be as deadly as it doesn't seem to destroy lung tissue and leave some survivors with lungs similar to TB sufferers. The fundamental point is that Omicron will lead to loads of people not being able to go to work, so this will be very disruptive. You can try and keep the school's open, but if there aren't any teacher, and as for hospitals and ambulance service....
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Danny on Dec 20, 2021 8:15:19 GMT
Conservatives once again making the mistake of waiting for the data before acting. If there is one lesson you need to learn in this pandemic...... Pull the other one mate. The lesson of every single covid outbreak has been the facts when they eventually arrive are that modelling over estimated every outbreak and as a result real governments over reacted. Which of course added to the deaths rather than reducing them. We should have never introduced lockdown to try to eradicate covid. But even after doing so in 2020 it should have clearly been ended as a policy in early 2021 once vaccination had reached the high risk. South Africa only vaccinated about 1/3 of its population with just two doses, and that sounds about right for achieving the majority of benefit it is capable of delivering. It was probably the optimal strategy. All that has been achieved by maintaining lockdown and other restrictions this year has been a Christmas epidemic instead of a summer one. That is so stupid as to defy belief. A government could repeat the mistake it made last summer. Deliberately creating another winter outbreak was insanity. You don't end covid using restrictions. You just keep it going forever until the last penny the UK can muster is spent. The policy had massively harmed the uk while saving no none and all the politicians seem hell bent on completing their destruction of the UK. The final outcome of all thos will be further distrust of politicians who have once again betrayed the people by lying to them. What sage told them not to do. Of course the libs won the recent by election. They are the only party disagreeing with government restrictions. Many more people believe that than ever believed in brexit. |
|
|
|
Post by barbara on Dec 20, 2021 8:31:18 GMT
I know I'm late to the party here but this thing about unelected bureaucrats in the EU has always puzzled me.
First we have our own unelected bureaucrats in the senior ranks of the civil service.
2nd what is the House of Lords if not unelected. And many of these unelected appointees are given key posts in government: Lord Frost, Lord Bethel of the the lost phone PPE contracts shenanigans, Lord Goldsmith, who having been kicked out by his own electorate as an MP reappears as a minister in the Foreign Office. And it wouldn't take more than a few minutes searching to find loads more. Who elected them.
To paraphrase Mercian, it seems that if they're British it's OK, but if they're European it's an outrage. Either it's wrong or it's right for everyone
|
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 20, 2021 8:42:07 GMT
Wes good again on the airwaves yesterday. He's cutting quite an impressive figure for one so relatively inexperienced in front line politics. He seems to enjoy the media rounds equally as well as time at the Commons dispatch box. Two essential tools in any successful politician's kitbag
Can Rachel, Bridget and Yvette make a similar impact?
Keir must be hoping so.
|
|
|
|
Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 20, 2021 8:42:10 GMT
I know I'm late to the party here but this thing about unelected bureaucrats in the EU has always puzzled me. First we have our own unelected bureaucrats in the senior ranks of the civil service. 2nd what is the House of Lords if not unelected. And many of these unelected appointees are given key posts in government: Lord Frost, Lord Bethel of the the lost phone PPE contracts shenanigans, Lord Goldsmith, who having been kicked out by his own electorate as an MP reappears as a minister in the Foreign Office. And it wouldn't take more than a few minutes searching to find loads more. Who elected them. To paraphrase Mercian, it seems that if they're British it's OK, but if they're European it's an outrage. Either it's wrong or it's right for everyone There is a lot of it about Barbara. If it's an EU regulation, it's bad, but if it's a UK regulation that says the same, it's good. If it's an EU trade deal, it's pants, but if it's a UK trade deal with the same effect it's amazing. Brexit is a dismal failure but at least it's our failure which we should take pride in. |
|
