8-Dec-2021 : LAB: 40 / CON: 34 / LDEM: 10 / GRN: 4

[Danny]

Dec 19, 2021 0:36:02 GMT tancred said:

Brexit is not an apocalypse, it's just an act of stupidity.

If sage was doing the analysis then apocalypse would certainly be the worst case credible outcome and we would be expecting it and preparing for it. Apocalypse is well within credible worse case outcome.

[robert]

@domg

I have absolutely no idea if everyone I meet in the pub voted remain or leave. (One or two I know of). The point is, it is simply not a topic of conversation. Anyone who mentions Brexit (hardly ever happens) gets an eye roll. Topics this last week in the Grumpy Old Mens club included, covid, rugby, football, F1, which decade produced the best music and woke nonsense. Oh, add in a few politically incorrect jokes too, like, 'the French have introduced travel restrictions to Brits but have agreed to waive them, if Germany invades'.

I don't for one minute doubt that a future government will pursue a different line to Frost. Our democracy allows us to change who is in power at a GE. And I agree that a good working relationship is what we want to achieve. Maybe Frost has been a little too intransigent in some of his negotiations but intransigence is not a one way street. Barnier was a master at it. I'm a pragmatist at the end of the day. Happy to see a common market return, just so long as we never return to an undemocratic political EU type set up. But let's remember exports to the EU only represent about 7% of our GDP.

[Deleted]

I have some sympathy with Frost's reported view on Net Zero. It has become a bit cultish, like so many other things in our Truman Show life these days.

And it is certainly true that IF we are going to be faced with never ending covid variants and never ending booster vaccinations and advice from CMOs not to socialise, then the low tax economy of Baker and Frost's dreams is kaput. Indeed, as argued in a ST article today, great chunks of the economy related to travel and socialising will ossify & disappear.

But for Baker & Frost to make a stand on this in winter as the Omicron wave marches across Europe seems very odd timing.

[steve]

Robert
"in a few politically incorrect jokes too, like, 'the French have introduced travel restrictions to Brits but have agreed to waive them, if Germany invades'."

Presumably you have to go through a time warp to enter the Boar(ds) head in 1960's Tunbridge wells.

Glad you're not worried about losing 7% of our GDP if I provide you with the address would you like to send me 7% of your money? I'll send you back as much reclaimed sovereignty as you like.

[Deleted]

Dec 19, 2021 9:31:45 GMT robert said:

I'm a pragmatist at the end of the day. Happy to see a common market return, just so long as we never return to an undemocratic political EU type set up. 

 Me too. 

[steve]

How will Spaffer manage to hide in the freezer now he's been defrosted?

[Danny]

Dec 19, 2021 8:46:17 GMT robert said:

Apparently 30% of Londoners are stupid (unjabbed) and at much higher risk of becoming seriously Ill, than the 70% who have taken some responsibility for their personal wellbeing.

Prior to boosters, unvaccinated people were no more likely to catch covid than double vaccinated people.In face Zoe data was saying they were less likely to be infected. I expect in six months after boosters this will be true again. One month after boosters..we don't know yet because the situation hasn't existed yet.

As to severe outcomes, unvaccinated people have been producing a higher proportion of severe cases. Why that is remains unclear without better analysis of exactly the age and history of those people. But the likelihood is that only a subset of unvaccinated people is at risk of severe outcomes, and those people will be able to work out themselves who they are. (safe being young, already infected, not overweight, not having a list of risk medical conditions )

[steve]

Colin
"But for Baker & Frost to make a stand on this in winter as the Omicron wave marches across Europe seems very odd timing."

Maybe they're just thick!

[steve]

Danny

The fact is around 90% of those most seriously ill in UK hospitals are unvaccinated.Similar pictures are reflected in other countries with high vaccination rates
It isn't remotely unclear why this is true.
It's because they are unvaccinated!

[somerjohn]

Interesting to see so many brexit supporters repeating the, "nobody wants to talk about brexit any more" meme.

It's entirely understandable that people don't want to be confronted with the ongoing failure of the project to deliver any of the promised benefits, bar the country's legal status. If I were a brexiteer I'd be super-keen to avoid the subject.

Just as you don't get many Tories eager to discuss the brilliance of austerity, or Labour supporters keen to revisit the Iraq war.

It's equally understandable that supporters of EU membership are very happy to highlight and discuss evidence of a slowly unfolding disaster. "I told you so" may not be an edifying reaction, but it's a very human one.

[Danny]

been looking through the Zoe age group case data once again and I have to say right now it's all looking good. Large rise in cases in age group 20-29, which also led the outbreak late summer as restrictions were eased. This is the only age group currently showing significant unusual rise and it will only ever produce a negligible number of serious cases.

Looking at the over 50s who have always produced the great majority of serious cases, trend continues down.

If that pattern continues it is ideal for minimal serious outcomes on this wave.

The greatest risk is well people being ordered home because of a renewed pingdemic. Sweden avoided that by simply using a rule that only sick people should isolate.

There is reason to think this trend may continue. Importantly the outcome may depend on my last post, just why some unvaccinated people are getting seriously ill but most are not. ie what are the risk factors making outcomes worse, which will in all probability also apply to the vaccinated group IF Omicron causes serious disease amongst them. Though so far still no reason to think it will.

As ever, the faster safe groups catch covid, the sooner this is over. The key to low death rates with a covid wave is probably to break the link between under and over 50s, and let rip amongst the younger block as fast as you can get them to party.

[domjg]

Dec 19, 2021 9:40:44 GMT colin said:

Dec 19, 2021 9:31:45 GMT robert said:

I'm a pragmatist at the end of the day. Happy to see a common market return, just so long as we never return to an undemocratic political EU type set up. 

 Me too. 

-Now you tell us.. And yet you both happily support the most damaging and dogmatic Brexit not least where Ireland is concerned. You know the single market includes freedom of movement as a fundamental pillar?

[domjg]

Dec 19, 2021 9:31:45 GMT robert said:

@domg

I have absolutely no idea if everyone I meet in the pub voted remain or leave. (One or two I know of). The point is, it is simply not a topic of conversation. Anyone who mentions Brexit (hardly ever happens) gets an eye roll. Topics this last week in the Grumpy Old Mens club included, covid, rugby, football, F1, which decade produced the best music and woke nonsense. Oh, add in a few politically incorrect jokes too, like, 'the French have introduced travel restrictions to Brits but have agreed to waive them, if Germany invades'.

I don't for one minute doubt that a future government will pursue a different line to Frost. Our democracy allows us to change who is in power at a GE. And I agree that a good working relationship is what we want to achieve. Maybe Frost has been a little too intransigent in some of his negotiations but intransigence is not a one way street. Barnier was a master at it. I'm a pragmatist at the end of the day. Happy to see a common market return, just so long as we never return to an undemocratic political EU type set up. But let's remember exports to the EU only represent about 7% of our GDP.

robert - The only place I talk about it is here really. My friends and I don't talk about it except perhaps obliquely as it's depressing, we all know where we stand and how strongly we feel about it and we've done it to death.

Having said that we probably would if there were a major development

[davwel]

To Mercian and Robert:

You obviously don`t realise how fortunate and unusual you are in not being affected by Brexit.

My family circles, community circles and research circles have many folk affected and worried by it.

- a Danish daughter-in-law needing to get to the country regularly to care for family.
- a son whose recruitment for university courses and research funding is respectively much changed and sharply reduced.
- the farmers/farmers` wives I mix with, uncertain that their family enterprises can continue.
- conservationists afraid that hard-produced arrangements such as the Habitats Directive will be effectively abandoned due to lack of staff to enforce them.

In the English Midlands, these stresses may be less frequent than NE Scotland. But that doesn`t mean you shouldn`t care, and go for a softer Brexit than the dogma-driven Frost wanted.

Oh and I should have added our immediate neighbour flying back to Denmark today to fulfil his work responsibilities after having had to come home unexpectedly because his father had died. So coping with extra rules.

[barbara]

Dec 18, 2021 21:20:43 GMT hireton said:

barbara

I didn't comment on your taxonomy of leavers current views earlier on but I think it is important to recognise that Brexit was not an end relating to sovereignty and trade in itself but a means to an end.

It was and is at heart a right wing political project which its fundamental advocates think has only just begun.

To quote one speaking a couple of weeks ago:

"If, after Brexit, all we do is import the European social model, we will not succeed.

We haven't successfully rolled back the frontiers of the EU with Brexit, only to import the European model after all this time."

Hireton,
Yes of course I agree.  That's one of the saddest things about it. That a project primarily designed to protect and promote the interests of the wealthiest should be espoused the most fervently by people in disadvantaged and 'left behind areas'. The brilliance of Cummings' campaign I suppose.

[crossbat11]

Some thoughts about the resignation of Lord Frost, and they focus more on how he came to be doing the job in the first place rather than what his sudden and unplanned departure means for the stability of Johnson's tottering government and the ongoing discussions with the EU over the NI protocol. Both those implications are important, but my focus, as I say, is on what his appointment says about our democracy and governance.

It has now become clear that he was a highly ideologically driven and politically opiniated non-elected public servant. Was that ever the right sort of quasi-diplomat to head up the most serious and delicate set of trade negotiations the country has ever had to manage since we entered the EEC in the 1970s? Shouldn't Johnson have considered diplomatic and negotiating skills rather than be preoccupied with partisan balance in his government and a need to placate and appease the large ERG cadre within his party? Isn't he meant to be the Prime Minister of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, not an endless campaign co-ordinator for Vote Leave or the leader of the Conservative Party who just happens to reside in Downing Street?

The appointment and then subsequent conduct of Frost in terms of souring our relationship with our European allies has been damaging to the country Johnson purports to govern. We know now that Frost was a right wing ideologue who liked to pontificate on a whole range of affairs of state around the Cabinet table. Who voted for the fellow to influence OUR government in that way? It's another example of mis-governance and the belittling of our key democratic institutions.

A right wing unelected ideologue put at the head of our negotiations with an institution and set of states he clearly despised. No wonder our relationships have soured and the negotiations have become an ideological ego trip for him rather than the highly sensitive diplomacy we required on behalf of the country. A country, incidentally, where very nearly 50% of the population expressed a desire to remain a member of the EU too.

But this seems to be how we're governed now. Where diplomatic charm offensives are required we appoint  charmless and egotistical non-entities, purely because of their ideological disposition. Frost, or should that be "Frosty", was the latest example of how low we have stooped as a nation and the fools we seem to be perpetually saddling ourselves with as our representatives and decision-makers. Stuntcraft instead of statecraft.

[jib]

domjg

I haven't"screwed anyone over". I just put a cross in a referendum ballot paper.

I don't align myself with the Tory hard right anymore than I align myself with the dreams of a Federal Superstate.

I'm very happy we've left the control of Brussels, and I'm happy for a mutually beneficial trade and security arrangement with the EU. I'd imagine most of the petty rules around 90 day stays etc will be gone soon enough, soon after Johnson departs the stage and both sides stop bickering.

[bantams]

Dec 19, 2021 5:49:52 GMT moby said:

Dec 18, 2021 22:27:03 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

Are there different types of EU now then JIB?

I'd vote for any type of EU rather than the mob we have governing us now. If they're what was meant by taking back control, I've never felt so out of control in three score years and ten.
 

This with bells on. The idea that the UK would become a new Singapore with low tax and low regulation off the shore of Europe is a fantasy. Brexiters won the referendum but they have lost our future. The country was split and the Union itself is fractured. There is no way forward  because people like me hate this country now  because of the referendum and the future direction planned for us. We will always be an Island with a bloc of neighbours we have much in common with. The way forward for us was integration into the bigger project. I don't give a fig about national sovereignty; nationalism is a suspect emotion based on childish, rather nostalgic values.  I hate Westminster and the suffocating English class system far more than any European project. Having people like Frost in public office is an insult to our future and the future of the next generation. His resignation is perhaps a sign we are changing direction again and I may start to feel a tad less shame about where I come from when I travel abroad.

I voted to remain, only on balance. If another referendum comes round in the near future I would vote to stay out. We haven't behaved brilliantly but neither has Brussels & Frost going might bring a bit of common sense to the table.

I have been overseas extensively over the last year on business and pleasure and have encountered very little conversation about Brexit. Other countries are far more preoccupied with their own issues than worry about us. As time goes on it will fade in importance although in our little bubble here it will linger a while yet.

[jib]

steve

"Glad you're not worried about losing 7% of our GDP if I provide you with the address would you like to send me 7% of your money? I'll send you back as much reclaimed sovereignty as you like."

I know you struggle with numbers, but it was 4 per cent earlier.

The doom predictions are getting more and more ridiculous just as the fact that rejoin has as much wings as, and is as dead as, a Dodo bird sinks in at camp Desperados.

[crossbat11]

Interesting piece by Robert Ford in today's Observer. Ford is professor of political science at the University of Manchester and co-author of "The British General Election of 2019". He's an independent political scientist of no little repute. In the article, he's reflecting on the recent North Shropshire by election and considering how much of an electoral headache a revived Liberal Democrat Party may now give the Tories on a number of different electoral battle fronts. He concludes that it's a considerable headache, He considers too what a LD revival may mean for Labour and how it could pose problems for them too. I thought his last paragraph was very moot: - 


"While a government defeat is always a happy result for the opposition, Labour strategists will also be wondering about the broader implications of the Lib Dems’ revival. Keir Starmer’s team will be delighted if the return of vigorous competition diverts Conservative resources to seats Labour have no chance of winning, but not all seats can be so neatly divided. North Shropshire itself is an example – Labour started in second place but have now been shoved to the margins. Should Labour candidates who often start in second place in pre-coalition Lib Dem seats accept a Lib Dem restoration or contest it? Even if Labour decide to aid the Lib Dem fightback, it is not obvious how best to do this. Signals of alignment may help encourage tactical Labour-to-Lib Dem switching but may impede Lib Dem recruitment of disgruntled Conservatives. Association with Labour in a national “progressive alliance” could kill off nascent Liberal Democrat revival in deeper-blue areas. Both parties might be better served fighting the next election as frenemies, formally opposed but informally co-ordinating. This could help preserve the fragile recovery of the Liberal Democrats’ greatest electoral resource: being “none of the above”.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Morning everyone from another gloriously grey day in the PSRL.

While Brexit continues to excite some, mainly arch-remainers a disproportion number of which seem to inhabit UKPR2, I do think its centrality to the political debate in the UK and VI is very much on the decline. In the circles I move in (not so much pub but more dinner parties drinking Prosecco), if Brexit is mentioned its more as part of a litany of issues pointing towards the inept and corrupt nature of this government. There is little evidence to suggest that the buyers remorse effect on Brexit is causing many voters to turn against the government, it seems to be more traditional factors that are making them unpopular - sleaze, govt seeming out of touch, people's expectations relating to their standard of living etc etc. The other big factor in play, is that the perception that Labour has moved away from the 'extreme' left and is not the scary option seems to be part of the calculation of voters. I'm not sure if the net effect of this second factor is in the long term beneficial to Labour's prospects as the perception of moving to the centre is at the expense of the enthusiasm of support/motivation from many of its supporters in the Corbyn period.

Johnson's three big electoral success have come against opponents seen to be lefties - he is unproven against a politician who is seen to be, and positions themselves as more 'mainstream'.

[steve]

Jib
I was hoping you might have begun to get a better grasp on reality but hey ho.
Still....


Attachment Deleted

[steve]

Lulemon
Grey foggy and depressing but enough about the government.
The weather's a bit pants as well.

[John Chanin]

Dec 18, 2021 12:24:02 GMT barbara said:

Guymonde:  "I think that's a good analysis of Leavers, but as a passionate remainer I think brexit is unequivocally done.

That's not to say we will not now move into a closer relationship, just as soon as we have a rational government, and we may rejoin single market, customs union, perhaps the whole shebang at some point.

But all those hard-fought concessions we had won over the years, the competitive advantage of the city, overseas investment in 'the aircraft carrier moored off the coast of France' are gone, some for ever, some for a long time.

And our influence in Europe and the wider world is irrevocably diminished. almost certainly for ever."

We can probably analyse remainers in the same way:
1. Lukewarm remainers who voted on the basis of probably better in than out.  Once Brexit was voted in they probably shrugged their shoulders and said, "It'll probably be all right. I was only 52% in favour of staying anyway"
2. Remainers, who like you, accept those days are gone and simply hope for a more sensible, softer Brexit allowing us to regain some of the rights we lost like the single market and customs union etc.
3. Those for whom it will never be over and who will be angry and/or sorrowful about it forever. ( I think that's me!  )

I am always surprised how many people, here and elsewhere, fall into category 3.  We won’t be rejoining the EU in my lifetime. We will have to make the best of the situation we find ourselves in, and all reminders of the brutal truth of sovereignty for a middle sized and friendless nation will help.  It’s always possible to rebuild relationships if both sides want to do so.

[steve]

John
Firstly welcome to our new home.

Secondly I am sorry you don't anticipate being around for the hopefully very few years it will take to rejoin.

[tancred]

Dec 18, 2021 23:51:41 GMT mercian said:

Dec 18, 2021 23:27:30 GMT alec said:

Cameron called the referendum to stop his party 'banging on and on about Europe', but I now suspect that even leaving Europe won't stop them banging on and on about Europe.

It's you lot (Rejoiners/Remoaners) who keep banging on about it.  The disaster that you go on about hasn't affected me or anyone I know in the slightest. Now obviously that's an unrepresentative sample, but it does suggest that this terrible apocalypse that you seem to imagine is just that - imagination.  This is not to say that some people haven't suffered, but others will have benefitted as happens with every change.  The main subject of current affairs conversation is of course Covid, followed at some distance by the Paterson affair.

I imagine that you someone in the older age groups for whom work is a thing of the past.  If not, you can be sure that the economic impact of Brexit will come soon enough. And you forget that the impact is not just economic but also political, diplomatic and in terms of ease of travel.  

[steamdrivenandy]

Dec 19, 2021 10:49:48 GMT bantams said:

Dec 19, 2021 5:49:52 GMT moby said:

This with bells on. The idea that the UK would become a new Singapore with low tax and low regulation off the shore of Europe is a fantasy. Brexiters won the referendum but they have lost our future. The country was split and the Union itself is fractured. There is no way forward  because people like me hate this country now  because of the referendum and the future direction planned for us. We will always be an Island with a bloc of neighbours we have much in common with. The way forward for us was integration into the bigger project. I don't give a fig about national sovereignty; nationalism is a suspect emotion based on childish, rather nostalgic values.  I hate Westminster and the suffocating English class system far more than any European project. Having people like Frost in public office is an insult to our future and the future of the next generation. His resignation is perhaps a sign we are changing direction again and I may start to feel a tad less shame about where I come from when I travel abroad.

I voted to remain, only on balance. If another referendum comes round in the near future I would vote to stay out. We haven't behaved brilliantly but neither has Brussels & Frost going might bring a bit of common sense to the table.

I have been overseas extensively over the last year on business and pleasure and have encountered very little conversation about Brexit. Other countries are far more preoccupied with their own issues than worry about us. As time goes on it will fade in importance although in our little bubble here it will linger a while yet.

It's always been the case that Brexit was of little interest to other countries outside the UK, though maybe the Irish had concerns that might have generated discussions in their pubs and maybe still do. So lack of comment whilst abroad is par for the course. We're just not as interesting as we think we are. 

[tancred]

Dec 19, 2021 11:36:52 GMT John Chanin said:

I am always surprised how many people, here and elsewhere, fall into category 3.  We won’t be rejoining the EU in my lifetime. We will have to make the best of the situation we find ourselves in, and all reminders of the brutal truth of sovereignty for a middle sized and friendless nation will help.  It’s always possible to rebuild relationships if both sides want to do so.

I have no idea of how old you are, but I'm 55 and I'm 99% sure that we will re-join in my lifetime. I agree that we have to make the best of a sh*t situation, but simply surrendering on the current situation is not a constructive path.  The Brexit fanatics have been scheming and plotting their revenge ever since the 1975 referendum and remainers need to be equally ruthless in order to fight back. Britain is fast becoming like Erdogan's Turkey: an isolated, mid sized nation with quite strong armed forces but few friends in the world.  As for rebuilding relationships, no, the trust has now gone - to be frank, if I was the EU commission president I would tell Britain to take a long walk off a short pier.  The patience displayed by the EU in the negotiations has been astonishing. 

[tancred]

Dec 19, 2021 9:40:44 GMT colin said:

Dec 19, 2021 9:31:45 GMT robert said:

I'm a pragmatist at the end of the day. Happy to see a common market return, just so long as we never return to an undemocratic political EU type set up. 

 Me too. 

We had the opportunity to return to the single market and customs union but even this option was voted down by May's MPs.  This is why we have a hard Brexit now.  The 'undemocratic' statement is utter nonsense as you know very well that there is an elected European parliament.  When you complain about lack of 'democracy' you really mean that you want an EU where each member state can just do what it wants, which runs counter to the entire point of the organisation, as it's based on consensus and cooperation. 

[steve]

Attachment DeletedStill there's always Christmas to look forward to.