8-Dec-2021 : LAB: 40 / CON: 34 / LDEM: 10 / GRN: 4

[Deleted]

Dec 30, 2021 15:52:08 GMT jimjam said:

Noted Colin,

I don't believe that negates the Keynsian approach though for the next few years.

Not sure if calculable but the incremental increased annual interest burden v incremental growth is the metric that should drive decisions imo.

Accepting the constraint of being able to continue to, in effect, re-finance of course.

It is regrettable that QE has seemingly been a device not only to support asset values but actually increase them.

Stabilising banking to enable business to continue was necessary but it went way beyond that.

I agree with your last sentenice @jimjam     .
  

[alec]

crossbat11 and steve - re the @tw blocking: it's a fun little game I play, picking him up on his regular misrepresentations and falsehoods. He claims to have blocked me (which is possible, I have confirmed) but it's funny how in subsequent posts there are the tell tale signs of a tweaked response here, a roll back on a point there, a caveating of an answer or a broadening of a point that corrects an earlier falsehood. or issuing a rebuttal to a point he couldn't possibly have read, because he's blocked me, apparently....

One of the amusing aspects of life om UKPR2.

bantams - missed your request for a source for the Liz 'Doormat' Truss comment.

It was Dmitry Grozoubinski via his twitter account. I have posted it previously on UKPR1. He is a former Australian trade negotiator and lately a lecturer on trade matters in the UK, highly experienced in trade talks and deals. He described the use of the Doormat nickname several times among serving Australian trade staff, and also wrote several analysis articles detailing how great the negotiations had been for Australia. Basically they knew Truss was gagging for it (a deal, that is - what else could I possibly have meant?) so they just said no, unless you give us.....and Truss rolled every time.

It's the best and most one sided trade deal Australia have ever secured. Really pathetic negotiating from the UK that others around the world have noted.

[Danny]

Dec 30, 2021 16:18:15 GMT davwel said:

Attention on the bad Covid news is being diverted by the Maxwell verdict and Drivegate around Firle Place, perhaps intentionally.
But 131 more people are in Scotland hospitals today, 679 was the total yesterday cf. 810 today, and 16857 new cases, which isn`t good.

And Messenger has told us this afternoon of 4 near neighbours infected, while grandaughter reports that she and her doctor boyfriend have both caught it and are moderately unwell. So that`s 2 fewer working in the Glasgow hospitals for a while.

 I find it extraordinary so many clever people cannot understand what SAGE told them two years ago. It will only end after enough people have become immune. There has been a fantasy that the vaccines can do this instead of catching it, but  more than a year after they were introduced its quite obvious they cannot. Ther have now been several different vaccines and none works obviously any better than the rest. The likelihood therefore is there is not going to be a better vaccine.

People can either hide in their homes for the rest of their lives, or they can go back to normal. Even every high risk person has now lost two years of their lives.

Dec 30, 2021 16:00:29 GMT alec said:

@danny - "Was that after I mentioned it yesterday, or do you watch the john Campbell daily utube updates where he mentioned it yesterday?"

No. I rarely ever read your covid posts because they are almost certainly always totally wrong. I also don't follow Campbell.

Well, content i got to it first then, though I notice I have done that several times now, here and there. Very interesting something I have never heard of before crops up suddenly in two places. Its the sort of coincidence which seems to happen a lot.

[Danny]

Dec 30, 2021 16:26:50 GMT @tw said:

Maybe even DANNY (another person whose nonsense I hide/block) has given up his anti-vaxx nonsense and finally accepted reality and even got himself jabbed?

Nope. I had covid in 2019. Theres really no point having a vaccine designed to protect against that strain of covid and increasingly outdated against new ones. Though I am thinking I ought to get myself exposed to omicron as a booster. That would seem the best course for the future.

Its disturbing that no one is wiling to take seriously the evidence covid arrived in the UK in 2019, which naturally meant it was established well before anyone even tried to keep it out. Hence creating a cascade of failed policies aganst it.  Lockdown failed to suppress covid- sage believed it could because the first wave was actually ending by itself before they took action. Test and trace has never been sufficiently numerous to halt covid spread. The vaccine failed -very obviously- to halt covid spread. Mistake after mistake. Which politician will be able to take up that torch?

[hireton]

Dec 30, 2021 16:05:32 GMT alec said:

turk - "Seems your equating lack of test kits with being a moron for fairness you should include Sturgeon,Drakeford our President Biden all the prime ministers and Presidents of the EU and just about every other Leader everywhere all who are struggling to have enough test kits over the Christmas holiday period."

It is valid to flag up a global issue of test shortages, but there do seem to be some specific distributional issues present in the UK. However, a more fundamental point is that the shortage, whatever the cause, is more problematic for the UK, as most other countries are not relying on testing as the main weapon against Omicron, as they have initiated other control measures.

Of course, I should here say 'England' rather than the UK

alec Wales lent England 4m LFTs today. And Scotland, Wales and NI sent LFTs to England in August 2021 but for some reason that doesn't get as much publicity as when the UK armed services provide assistance to UK administrations.

[jib]

turk

"Seems your equating lack of test kits with being a moron for fairness you should include Sturgeon,Drakeford our President Biden all the prime ministers and Presidents of the EU and just about every other Leader everywhere all who are struggling to have enough test kits over the Christmas holiday period."

You should read this, just as well there a friend when one is in need:

"Wales will lend England a further four million lateral flow tests, it's been revealed."

www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/wales-going-lend-england-four-22605923

[jib]

Danny

"Nope. I had covid in 2019."

No you didn't. You even posted the results of a Roche antibody test you took that showed you hadn't.

And there was no SARS-CoV-2 in Hastings in 2019 either.



"Though I am thinking I ought to get myself exposed to omicron as a booster. That would seem the best course for the future."

You should be cautious:


Anti-vaxxer who went to ‘corona party’ to become infected dies from Covid


www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-party-death-italy-bolzano-b1962661.html

[steve]

Danny
Patient A in the UK arrived on 23rd January 2020 from Wuhan.
You didn't have covid in 2019, you might have had a viral infection similar in impact but at the risk of triggering the good old Hastings had it first stuff again it wasn't Covid!

[steve]

JIB
The anti vaxxer mentioned above didn't die from omicron variant, as there was no omicron variant in Italy at the time

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Hi Graham

My nonconformist background makes me socially pretty conservative on certain issues - though I have never voted Tory and very unlikely to do so.

I am not sure how in this day and age such issues as this one have an actual impact on the VI of those of faith. Evangelicals in the US seemed to have no issue with Trump despite ample evidence of his lack of rectitude. I am no fan of Truss, but she seems to be in a completely different class to Johnson when it comes to adultery so for me to draw any kind of equivalence between them on this would smack of double standards. When it does matter to the electorate is when their personal/private actions contradict public positioning. I think the revelation, and blatant hypocrisy, of Gove in publically damming mc users of Class A drugs while getting high on his own supply has damaged his reputation. If Truss based her whole campaign on getting back to basics and family values, whilst in her private life acting in a manner akin to how Catherine the Great allegedly acted then it would be a different matter. As I mentioned before to me the fact she is a woman is irrelevant in regards to her suitability / potential effectiveness as PM - I think she is inept, out of her depth and wouldn't vote for her in a month of Sunday's. So really would be no change on Johnson.

[jib]

steve

Agree it wasn't Omicron.

Still pretty risky endeavour if you have no previous exposure nor been vaccinated.

Omicron is still pretty dangerous if you are vulnerable.....

[steve]

I wonder if a certain member of the Windsor clan has recovered the ability to sweat.

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/30/ghislaine-maxwell-sentence-deal-speculation-jeffrey-epstein

[ladyvalerie]

I’ve made it finally.  Good to see some fellow travellers and some new recruits. And Labour’s coming home 😀

[Danny]

Dec 30, 2021 18:28:00 GMT jib said:

Danny

Anti-vaxxer who went to ‘corona party’ to become infected dies from Covid

I should be alright then, because I believe in the effectiveness of vaccines. However, I also believe trying to use anything beyond its capability is always a mistake.

Dec 30, 2021 18:32:14 GMT steve said:

Danny
Patient A in the UK arrived on 23rd January 2020 from Wuhan.
You didn't have covid in 2019, you might have had a viral infection similar in impact but at the risk of triggering the good old Hastings had it first stuff again it wasn't Covid!

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence? Who keeps saying that? It has been proven covid arrived in Europe third quarter of 2019. Surely the amazing thing would be it did not reach England. Which UK hospital was doing tests to identify the cases they saw in 2019? Who with a nasty flu at that time did a home test to tell if it was covid? Who recognised the key symptom of loss of taste and smell? Though I have met people who restrospectively do now

[steve]

JIB
The juries still out on that given there are only around 60 confirmed deaths from omicron in the UK from an estimated millions of infections.
But getting vaccinated makes sense anyway.

[steve]

Attachment Deleted


Ladyvalerie

Welcome aboard.

[Danny]

Dec 30, 2021 18:49:00 GMT ladyvalerie said:

I’ve made it finally.  Good to see some fellow travellers and some new recruits. And Labour’s coming home 😀

I prefer them to the other lot, but if they are, it is only because the cracks are widening in the current administration and it implodes. Not because labour have an attractive message of their own.

And maybe the libs have scented blood on the question of excessive covid restrictions.

[James E]

Dec 30, 2021 17:05:52 GMT alec said:

crossbat11 and steve - re the @tw blocking: it's a fun little game I play, picking him up on his regular misrepresentations and falsehoods. He claims to have blocked me (which is possible, I have confirmed) but it's funny how in subsequent posts there are the tell tale signs of a tweaked response here, a roll back on a point there, a caveating of an answer or a broadening of a point that corrects an earlier falsehood. or issuing a rebuttal to a point he couldn't possibly have read, because he's blocked me, apparently....

One of the amusing aspects of life om UKPR2.

The Trevors do actually admit to reading the posts that they block in a  post at 16:26pm above.

But I'm guessing that not many people read that one.

[Danny]

Dec 30, 2021 18:50:09 GMT steve said:

JIB
The juries still out on that given there are only around 60 confirmed deaths from omicron in the UK from an estimated millions of infections.
But getting vaccinated makes sense anyway.

South Africa has resolved their covid problem as well as anyone has to date with 30% vaccination.

[mercian]

Dec 30, 2021 16:26:50 GMT @tw said:

Dec 30, 2021 9:06:12 GMT colin said:

Its Three Horseman-Alec said one died.

But even a dead horseman (eg the Br-Apocalypse) can still get kicked. Did he ever reply to bantams WRT to the 'doormat' Truss comment with a source?

A great feature of UKPR2 is to be able to hide/block the daily diatribes of defeatist drivel from Planet ALECS and given the lack of comment on Covid on that issue specific thread then perhaps Covid-geddon is a 2nd dead horseman? Maybe even DANNY (another person whose nonsense I hide/block) has given up his anti-vaxx nonsense and finally accepted reality and even got himself jabbed? I'm occasionally tempted to unhide some comments and see if some fanatics have 'moved on' but a temptation I have regretted on the few occasions I have.

Spoiler alert - they haven't.

[steve]

Danny
The vaccination rate among South Africa's at risk population is around 80%

[crossbat11]

Dec 30, 2021 18:49:00 GMT ladyvalerie said:

I’ve made it finally.  Good to see some fellow travellers and some new recruits. And Labour’s coming home 😀

Where yer bin, kid??

[Deleted]

Dec 30, 2021 19:47:30 GMT crossbat11 said:

Dec 30, 2021 18:49:00 GMT ladyvalerie said:

I’ve made it finally.  Good to see some fellow travellers and some new recruits. And Labour’s coming home 😀

Where yer bin, kid??

Welcome back from me aussi.

I've cancelled our mini-group now by the way.

[Deleted]

Dec 30, 2021 19:07:06 GMT mercian said:

Dec 30, 2021 16:26:50 GMT @tw said:

But even a dead horseman (eg the Br-Apocalypse) can still get kicked. Did he ever reply to bantams WRT to the 'doormat' Truss comment with a source?

A great feature of UKPR2 is to be able to hide/block the daily diatribes of defeatist drivel from Planet ALECS and given the lack of comment on Covid on that issue specific thread then perhaps Covid-geddon is a 2nd dead horseman? Maybe even DANNY (another person whose nonsense I hide/block) has given up his anti-vaxx nonsense and finally accepted reality and even got himself jabbed? I'm occasionally tempted to unhide some comments and see if some fanatics have 'moved on' but a temptation I have regretted on the few occasions I have.

Spoiler alert - they haven't.

Well, maybe one day perhaps. Although for DANNY maybe he'll soon get the chance to learn the hard way? I occasionally read some folks who are wasting their time replying to them and will stick to the 'general rules' and the democratic vote to use Issue Specific threads for specific issues so as not to clog up the main thread with specific issues. 

[hireton]

Lord Geidt reported to have cleared Johnson again but it looks as though it's going to be a murky story which may mot help Johnson's ratings:

[tancred]

Dec 30, 2021 10:43:08 GMT hireton said:

Dec 29, 2021 23:03:10 GMT tancred said:

Please enlighten me.

It's better to do your own research on first principles. It's not difficult.

Please don't patronise me - I am aware of the UK constitution. We have a sovereign and a parliament. Scotland is part of the UK and is therefore under the same constitutional rules as England.  Scotland cannot simply declare independence and break off without the consent of HM government and thereby also HM The Queen. 

[alec]

One thing I haven't seen mention of in the mainstream press as yet is the really rather alarming increase in hospitalisations of children with covid. This has been hitting record levels in recent days, with 500 admissions in ther week to Boxing Day and 105 on the 27th, including 66 under 5s. Meanwhile, in the US the CDC has reviewed the nearly 9m vaccinations given to the 5- 11 year olds and concludes that vaccination is the best way to prevent infections.

It does seem that we are a long way behind on protecting children, having failed to vaccinate when the evidence was clear. alongside an almost total absence of effective mitigations in schools. The plan was - overtly and openly stated - to effectively engineer a large wave of infections in school children in the Autumn, to prevent a big wave in the winter.

The result seems to be that thousands of children got infected with Delta, missed schools etc in the Autumn, and then got infected again with Omicron in the winter, as well as ending up in hospital in record numbers.

I don't sense a great awareness of the issue of child illness within the covid coverage, but if I were a parent of young children, I'm not sure I would be that sanguine about the way the government has handled this part of the pandemic.

[alec]

tancred - "Scotland cannot simply declare independence and break off without the consent of HM government and thereby also HM The Queen."

That's total nonsense. Scotland can decide to do whatever it likes. What you might be thinking of is whether there is a recourse in UK constitutional law for Scotland to decide it's status unilaterally, without reference to the UK government. There isn't, but then, if Scotland freely decides that the UK constitution doesn't apply to it, that settles that particular problem.

As ever in these matters, it is first a issue of the law under any given legal system, and then an issue of whether that legal system is still recognised as valid, and after that, simple politics.

Anything can happen if the citizens of a nation so decide.

[tancred]

Dec 30, 2021 12:45:55 GMT graham said:

Dec 30, 2021 12:33:33 GMT nickp said:

Something to be proud of, eh? Do your views on race and sexuality belong to the 70s mainstream too?

No - but I have never been a fan of 'the permissive society'. My nonconformist background makes me socially pretty conservative on certain issues - though I have never voted Tory and very unlikely to do so.

I am pretty socially conservative myself but I don't see how someone's sexual behaviour affects their ability to do their job.  

[tancred]

Dec 30, 2021 22:50:22 GMT alec said:

tancred - "Scotland cannot simply declare independence and break off without the consent of HM government and thereby also HM The Queen."

That's total nonsense. Scotland can decide to do whatever it likes. What you might be thinking of is whether there is a recourse in UK constitutional law for Scotland to decide it's status unilaterally, without reference to the UK government. There isn't, but then, if Scotland freely decides that the UK constitution doesn't apply to it, that settles that particular problem.

As ever in these matters, it is first a issue of the law under any given legal system, and then an issue of whether that legal system is still recognised as valid, and after that, simple politics.

Anything can happen if the citizens of a nation so decide.

What you are saying is utter nonsense. Rhodesia, not even part of the UK at the time, just a colony, declared UDI in 1966 illegally.  The British government imposed sanctions and considered military force to overthrow the Smith government and restore legitimate government. It would have been fully entitled to do so. Similarly, if Scotland declared independence unilaterally the British government would be entitled to depose the Scottish government and restore direct rule from Westminster.  Scotland is not legally a nation because a nation can only be defined as such if it is recognised in international law. The fact that Scotland has a national football team or rugby team means nothing - in the same way, the Ukraine and Belarus were not nations until 1991 when Yeltsin granted them the right to become independent following the collapse of the USSR.