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Post by leftieliberal on Dec 1, 2021 15:22:27 GMT
This topic contains an archive of the GB/UK opinion polls of Westminster voting intention broken down by polling organisation. All data has been taken from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election except where this page has failed to include polling that is already available on pollsters web sites. I intend to update this monthly outside of General Elections. Please send me a direct message through this board, as opposed to posting in this thread, to correct any errors in the data.
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Post by jimjam on Mar 2, 2022 22:37:56 GMT
LL - thanks for this.
If I may make a suggestion that you * opinium from the last 2 polls with the legend saying methodology change or some such?
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,590
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 21, 2022 12:46:54 GMT
I have reposted this from the main thread to make it easier to find. I intend to edit and update for the current parliament. Apologies to leftieliberal for borrowing his thread.
The "months of opposition lead" table.
Months Total in lead Months % Subsequent election 1992-97 57 60 95.0% Opposition 1970-F74 37 44 84.1% Opposition 2010-15 49 60 81.7% Govt 1966-70 38 51 74.5% Opposition 2005-10 43 60 71.7% Opposition 1979-83 31 48 64.6% Govt 1959-64 37 60 61.7% Opposition 1955-59 32 52 61.5% Govt O74-79 33 55 60.0% Opposition 2019-24 31 54 57.4% 1951-55 23 43 53.5% Govt 1950-51 10 20 50.0% Opposition 1983-87 21 48 43.8% Govt 1945-50 24 56 42.9% Govt 1987-92 24 58 41.4% Govt 2017-19 12 31 38.7% Govt 1964-66 4 18 22.2% Govt F74-O74 1 7 14.3% Govt 2001-05 3 47 6.4% Govt 1997-2001 1 49 2.0% Govt 2015-17 0 25 0.0% Govt
The better guide to whether there will be a change of government is the average size of the lead.
Average Subsequent Lead election 1992-97 25.8 Opposition 2019-24 15.9 1966-70 12.9 Opposition 1950-51 10.9 Opposition 2005-10 10.0 Opposition 1959-64 9.3 Opposition O74-79 8.9 Opposition 1987-92 8.8 Govt 1970-F74 7.9 Opposition 2010-15 6.1 Govt 1955-59 6.1 Govt 1979-83 6.0 Govt 1983-87 5.4 Govt F74-O74 5.0 Govt 1997-2001 5.0 Govt 1945-50 4.6 Govt 1951-55 4.4 Govt 1964-66 4.2 Govt 2001-05 2.7 Govt 2017-19 2.4 Govt 2015-17 0.0 Govt
Re 1987-92 - two distinct periods: v Thatcher 10.4 v Major 1.7
2019-24 parliament: I have added June 2024. The average Labour lead decreased from 21.2% in May to 19.8%. The average lead in the 'months opposition are ahead' number increased slightly from 15.6 to 15.9. This parliament is in second place on the list and firmly lodged in 'change of government' territory.
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Post by leftieliberal on Apr 23, 2022 10:47:47 GMT
pjw1961 No need to apologise. When I first started the thread, I intended it to be an archive of polling data that anyone could add to, but without including debate on what the polling meant, so that everyone could find data quickly. Then Mark decided to lock the file, but I suggested to him after adding the March data that we try leaving it unlocked.
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Post by leftieliberal on May 1, 2022 13:34:11 GMT
One additional note: under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/11/enacted the next General Election must take place no later than January 27th 2025. Under this Act if the Prime Minister does not call a General Election earlier, Parliament will dissolve itself on 17th December 2024 (the fifth anniversary of its first meeting after the December 2019 General Election) and the General Election will take place 25 working days (i.e. excluding Bank Holidays) after that. As politicians usually dislike winter elections, I don't expect this outcome to occur.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 2, 2022 23:08:06 GMT
Posting delayed to include the Redfield & Wilton 1st June poll. See my comments on their 29th May poll at ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/32457A comment I made there:There are some very odd features when you look at the VI breakdown. Going back a week to the 22nd May polling by R&W for comparison and looking at likelihood to vote stats 5 - certain to vote: was 46% now 50%. Male was 52% now 52%. Female was 41% now 49%. 1st June 43%/50%/36%2- leaning towards not voting but may vote: was 11% now 6%. Male was 9% now 7%. Female was 13% now 6%. 1st June 13%/10%/15%1- probably will not vote: was 10% now 6%. Male was 8% now 5%. Female was 12% now 7%. 1st June 7%/6%/9%It illustrates why when looking at VI changes, you should always look at the LTV (likelihood to vote) as well, because often changes in VI can be traced back to changes in LTV as here (my own view is that people tend to overestimate their LTV when polled). It may be worth doing an analysis using the numbers before multiplying by LTV and excluding the Don't Know and Will Not Vote manually.
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jan 8, 2023 22:57:21 GMT
YG 7 (or less if total N > 1000, so normally 6) poll Scots crossbreaks averages. YG Full Scottish polls in BoldMonth | N | SNP | SCon | SLab | SLD | SGP | REFUK | 22/11/21 | 1060 | 48 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 2 | Dec 21 | 1044 | 45 | 22 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 2 | Jan 22 | 1018 | 50 | 18 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 2 | Feb 22 | 1011 | 47 | 20 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 2 | Mar 22 | 1058 | 47 | 19 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 2 | Apr 22 | 1135 | 47 | 17 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 2 | May 22 | 1118 | 44 | 18 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 23/5/22 | 1115 | 46 | 19 | 22 | 6 | 3 | 1 | Jun 22 | 1037 | 44 | 19 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 2 | Jul 22 | 1031 | 44 | 18 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 2 | Aug 22 | 1094 | 47 | 18 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 1 | Sep 22 | 1059 | 46 | 17 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4/10/22 | 1067 | 45 | 12 | 31 | 7 | 3 |
| Oct 22 | 1029 | 45 | 15 | 27 | 6 | 5 | 2 | Nov 22 | 1016 | 43 | 15 | 28 | 7 | 4 | 3 | Dec 22 | 1017 | 44 | 13 | 27 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 9/12/22 | 1090 | 43 | 14 | 29 | 6 | 4 | 3 | Jan 23 | 1089 | 44 | 13 | 28 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 26/1/23 | 1088 | 42 | 15 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 3 | Feb 23 | 1060 | 42 | 15 | 28 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 15/2/23 | 1239 | 38 | 15 | 35 | 6 | 3 |
| 20/2/23 | 1017 | 38 | 19 | 29 | 6 | 4 | 2 | Mar 23 | 1069 | 39 | 16 | 29 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 13/3/23 | 1002 | 39 | 16 | 29 | 6 | 6 | 3 | Apr 23 | 1061 | 32 | 19 | 31 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 20/4/23 | 1032 | 37 | 17 | 28 | 8 | 5 | 2 | May23 | 1062 | 35 | 16 | 30 | 7 | 6 | 2 | Jun 23 | 1608 | 36 | 14 | 32 | 6 | 6 | 3 | Jul 23 | 1084 | 33 | 13 | 34 | 8 | 7 | 2 | Aug 23 | 1106 | 35 | 14 | 32 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 8/8/23 | 1086 | 36 | 15 | 32 | 6 | 6 | 3 | Sep 23 | 1091 | 37 | 16 | 27 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 13/9/23 | 1103 | 38 | 16 | 27 | 7 | 6 |
| Oct 23 | 1072 | 36 | 14 | 32 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 8/10/23 | 1028 | 33 | 20 | 32 | 5 | 5 | 2 | Nov 23 | 1124 | 36 | 14 | 32 | 7 | 6 | 4 | Dec 23 | 1109 | 36 | 16 | 29 | 8 | 6 | 3 | Jan 24 | 1068 | 32 | 14 | 34 | 7 | 6 | 6 | Feb 24 | 1067 | 34 | 13 | 35 | 5 | 6 | 5 | Mar 24 | 1073 | 34 | 13 | 35 | 6 | 6 | 5 | Apr 24 | 1071 | 32 | 15 | 33 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2/4/24 | 1100 | 31 | 14 | 33 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 29/4/24 | 1043 | 33 | 14 | 34 | 8 | 4 | 5 | May 24 | 1078 | 31 | 13 | 38 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 17/5/24 | 1114 | 29 | 12 | 39 | 8 | 7 | 4 |
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 27, 2023 18:46:37 GMT
Redfield & Wilton details 2023 Attachment Deleted by MarkI have repeated what I did in the first two months of 2022. All the data is in the Excel file and I have pulled out two of the most interesting graphs. The 2022 data is shown by dotted lines Voter support by gender
Both males and females have swung to Labour; the latter now supporting Labour over the Conservatives by more than a factor of 2 (52%:24%) Voter support by age
Only the over-65s are more likely to support the Conservatives than Labour, but their support in the 18-24 and 25-34 age groups is holding steady at a low level (17%). RefUK have almost doubled their support in the 55-64 age group from 5% to 9%, making it the age group where they have most support. Voter support by region
The region where the Conservatives have lost least is in London, while they have lost most in the East Midlands. Labour have gained much the same everywhere apart from the North-East, North-West and Yorkshire & Humberside where they were already strong. RefUK are polling strongest in the North East Switch Analysis - the comparison is just for January 2022 and January 2023 to avoid any effects of Nicola Sturgeon's resignation. 2022 & 2023 Retention of 2019 voters 2022 2023Con 76% 63% Lab 89% 92% LD 69% 57% Green 77% 63% SNP 86% 79% PC 73% 56% RefUK 56% 66% (Brexit Party voters in 2019) So big losses for Con, LD, Green, & PC, a small loss for SNP a small gain for Lab and a big gain for RefUK (although from a low base) Of the 37% of Con voters who have changed VI, 22% are now supporting Lab. Of the 21% of SNP voters who have changed VI, 14% are now supporting Lab, of the 43% of LD voters who have changed VI, 27% are now supporting Lab, and of the 37% of Greens who have changed VI, 27% are now supporting Lab so that is a swing of around 2/3 of all those changing VI to Labour. Even if there is a swing back to the Conservatives as the election approaches, Labour should be able to hold on to voters from the other parties.
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Post by expatr on Feb 28, 2023 0:05:50 GMT
Redfield & Wilton details 2023 View AttachmentView AttachmentView AttachmentI have repeated what I did in the first two months of 2022. All the data is in the Excel file and I have pulled out two of the most interesting graphs. The 2022 data is shown by dotted lines Voter support by gender
Both males and females have swung to Labour; the latter now supporting Labour over the Conservatives by more than a factor of 2 (52%:24%) Voter support by age
Only the over-65s are more likely to support the Conservatives than Labour, but their support in the 18-24 and 25-34 age groups is holding steady at a low level (17%). RefUK have almost doubled their support in the 55-64 age group from 5% to 9%, making it the age group where they have most support. Voter support by region
The region where the Conservatives have lost least is in London, while they have lost most in the East Midlands. Labour have gained much the same everywhere apart from the North-East, North-West and Yorkshire & Humberside where they were already strong. RefUK are polling strongest in the North East Switch Analysis - the comparison is just for January 2022 and January 2023 to avoid any effects of Nicola Sturgeon's resignation. 2022 & 2023 Retention of 2019 voters 2022 2023Con 76% 63% Lab 89% 92% LD 69% 57% Green 77% 63% SNP 86% 79% PC 73% 56% RefUK 56% 66% (Brexit Party voters in 2019) So significant losses for Con, LD, Green, & PC, a small loss for SNP a small gain for Lab and a big gain for RefUK (although from a low base) Of the 37% of Con voters who have changed VI, 22% are now supporting Lab. Of the 21% of SNP voters who have changed VI, 14% are now supporting Lab, of the 43% of LD voters who have changed VI, 27% are now supporting Lab, and of the 37% of Greens who have changed VI, 27% are now supporting Lab so that is a swing of around 2/3 of all those changing VI to Labour. Even if there is a swing back to the Conservatives as the election approaches, Labour should be able to hold on to voters from the other parties. Sorry just for my understanding is that e.g. 22% of 2019 Con voters supporting Lab or 22% of 37% = c7.5% of 2019 Con voters now supporting labour. I think probably the former given the overall numbers?
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 28, 2023 10:27:51 GMT
Redfield & Wilton details 2023 View AttachmentView AttachmentView AttachmentI have repeated what I did in the first two months of 2022. All the data is in the Excel file and I have pulled out two of the most interesting graphs. The 2022 data is shown by dotted lines Voter support by gender
Both males and females have swung to Labour; the latter now supporting Labour over the Conservatives by more than a factor of 2 (52%:24%) Voter support by age
Only the over-65s are more likely to support the Conservatives than Labour, but their support in the 18-24 and 25-34 age groups is holding steady at a low level (17%). RefUK have almost doubled their support in the 55-64 age group from 5% to 9%, making it the age group where they have most support. Voter support by region
The region where the Conservatives have lost least is in London, while they have lost most in the East Midlands. Labour have gained much the same everywhere apart from the North-East, North-West and Yorkshire & Humberside where they were already strong. RefUK are polling strongest in the North East Switch Analysis - the comparison is just for January 2022 and January 2023 to avoid any effects of Nicola Sturgeon's resignation. 2022 & 2023 Retention of 2019 voters 2022 2023Con 76% 63% Lab 89% 92% LD 69% 57% Green 77% 63% SNP 86% 79% PC 73% 56% RefUK 56% 66% (Brexit Party voters in 2019) So significant losses for Con, LD, Green, & PC, a small loss for SNP a small gain for Lab and a big gain for RefUK (although from a low base) Of the 37% of Con voters who have changed VI, 22% are now supporting Lab. Of the 21% of SNP voters who have changed VI, 14% are now supporting Lab, of the 43% of LD voters who have changed VI, 27% are now supporting Lab, and of the 37% of Greens who have changed VI, 27% are now supporting Lab so that is a swing of around 2/3 of all those changing VI to Labour. Even if there is a swing back to the Conservatives as the election approaches, Labour should be able to hold on to voters from the other parties. Sorry just for my understanding is that e.g. 22% of 2019 Con voters supporting Lab or 22% of 37% = c7.5% of 2019 Con voters now supporting labour. I think probably the former given the overall numbers? Yes, that's correct. Only 63% of people who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would still vote for them. Of the 37% who have said that they will vote for another party, 22% (just under 2/3) have said they will support Labour. We are looking at sample sizes for the five polls aggregated of 2,545 for Conservative and 2132 for Labour, so expect the errors in the percentages above to be about the same as for a typical opinion poll.* For the other parties the sample sizes are rather smaller (LD 747, SNP 276, Green 149, RefUK 111, PC 28) so the error bars are bigger and in particular the change for the SNP is probably not statistically significant and the PC sample is too small to be sure of anything. *Because the pollsters use quota sampling not pure random sampling, you cannot assume that the distribution is a Gaussian or the standard deviation is √N where N is the number in the sample. Their usual wording is that two-thirds of samples will be within ± 2% and 90% within ± 4%, where they do a comparison of polls taken immediately before an election with the actual election result.
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Post by leftieliberal on Oct 2, 2023 10:28:34 GMT
Updated polling archive to 29th September (subject to any late publication) Attachment deleted to save space. I've added both "Red Wall" and "Blue Wall" polling by Redfield & Wilton because there are enough data points in both to make a meaningful comparison over time. The "Blue Wall" data are particularly interesting because they suggest tactical voting will become a bigger factor at the GE than in recent elections, so the Tories are likely to lose more seats than would be expected from the overall Party VIs (and the Lib Dems will gain rather more seats as in 1997).
I have been experimenting by aggregating polls by the same pollster into three-month 'bins' on the 'Graphs' tab to see if taking out 'house effects' would lead to similar swings for the different pollsters, but this has not happened. In the last three months both Deltapoll and Techne showed large swings (2-2.5%), Redfield & Wilton, Savanta and YouGov showed small swings (~1%) all in the direction of decreasing Con VI and increasing Lab VI, while both Opinium and WeThink showed swings with decreasing Con VI and Lab VI. Taking the average of ~ 12 weekly polls should reduce the statistical errors to ~ 0.5% (1 sigma). Even allowing for Opinium's means of dealing with "don't knows", I would have expected to see more correlation in swings between the other pollsters.
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Post by leftieliberal on Mar 5, 2024 22:22:01 GMT
An update on what I wrote here last year with graphs. Because of the number of lines involved, I have spit up the age and region graphs between the parties and am just showing the Tory/Labour graphs here (with the main Nationalist Parties in the regions). Voter support by GenderLabour continues to be more popular with female voters, but not by as much as last year. Note that female voters are as likely to vote for ReformUK as male voters now. This is a distinctive change from last year Voter support by AgeThe Conservative vote has continued to decline most notably amongst older voters (45-54, 55-64 & 65+). They may have gone to ReformUK as it is strongly up in these age groups. Labour has lost some support amongst its younger voters (18-24, 25-34 and 35-44) which seems to have moved to the Lib Dems and Greens. Voter support by RegionLabour has fallen back slightly from last year but has improved where it matters (in Scotland) where they are ahead 36% to the SNP 30% (average of first 9 R&W polls in 2024, sample size 1153) EDIT Compared with oldnat 's YouGov polling above the absolute values of VI are different but the trend is similar. The differences can be put down to "house effects" as for national polling. Only when we have the election results shall we know which pollster was closest to the actual result. Switch Analysis 2022-2024 Retention of 2019 voters (based on first five polls in the year, so before Sturgeon's resignation in 2023) 2022 2023 2024 Con 76% 63% 56% Lab 89% 92% 88% LD 69% 57% 62% Grn 77% 63% 74% SNP 86% 79% 65% PC 73% 56% 66% Ref 56% 66% 76% (Brexit Party voters in 2019)Tories continue to lose voters from their 2019 cohort; RefUK is getting back more Brexit Party voters but this is not enough to explain their poll rise. Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid recovering from a bad 2023 but the Greens doing best in recovering. Where are the lost voters going (as a percentage of their 2019 vote)? Tories 19% to Labour; 20% to RefUK Lib Dems 16% to Labour Greens 10% to Labour SNP 16% to Labour RefUK/Brexit 11% to Tories Of those who didn't vote in 2019 (but were eligible to) Tories gain 12% Labour gain 51% Lib Dems gain 9% RefUK gain 15%
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 7, 2024 22:29:19 GMT
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 14, 2024 10:29:10 GMT
Just to preserve by polling accuracy analysis from getting lost:
I have done a simple exercise of comparing the (rounded) GB result to the final poll for each organisation and then aggregating all the differences in respect of the 6 main parties (Lab, Con, LD, RefUK, SNP, Green). I have ignored 'others' as they is a potentially distorting factor. The rounded result was: Lab 35, Con 24, LD 12.5, SNP 2.5, Green 7, Reform 15.
On this basis the polls performed as follows (lower is better):
6 - Verian (their poll was Lab 36, Con 21, LD 13, SNP 3, Green 7, Reform 16 - bit low on Con, but within 1% on every other party) 7 - Norstat and YouGov 9 - JL Partners, We Think, BMG, More in Common 10 - Survation, Focaldata 11 - Number Cruncher Politics, Deltapoll 12 - Whitestone Insights, Techne 13 - Opinium, Ipsos, Redfield & Wilton 14 - Lord Ashcroft 15 - Savanta 18 - Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus 20 - People Polling (Their's was Lab 36, Con 16, LD 10, SNP 4, Green 9, Reform 20)
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