Energy Markets and Net Zero

[Deleted]

Dec 27, 2021 9:23:27 GMT jib said:

Disappointing:

www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/27/plans-in-england-for-car-chargers-in-all-commercial-car-parks-quietly-rolled-back

Rhetoric, and apparently tears at the Glasgow COP, not backed up by action.

Did you spot they contradicted their 'news' within their own article (see click thru to www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/21/all-new-buildings-in-england-to-have-electric-car-charge-points-from-2022). 'ALL' was never a promise, not even a 'Boris' promise. There was a promised consultation (and they give the click-thru for that) and a sensible decision was made. The cost to 'retro fit' ALL car parks would be massive and require huge grid investment that isn't yet ready. 

Any deliverable plan needs to build up across all components of delivery (from 'generation' through 'supply' down to end user) and the weak links in England/UK at the moment are in generation and grid infrastructure. Back on the UKPR I mentioned concerns (backed with numbers) for various issues relating to moving quicker on BEV uptake without getting the other aspects built up at the same time (which we're already seeing in 'price' of recharging BEVs, not that I'd wish to discourage uptake but I expect a lot of folks do look at the £)

Folks genuinely interested in reality should read up on Ofgem's RIIO (1 and 2), National Grid's investment plan, the trickier issues of devolved govts and various generation/imports, etc rather than accept Guardian 'click bait' as fact.

PS Sharma is/was COP chappie. I'm quite happy to criticise Kwarteng, who as SoS BEIS is the chap in charge of delivery, for being a bit slow (and a bit tight) in many areas (although had it been Miliband in the role then we'd be looking at a lot more Hinckley Point C money pit, huge delay problems www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/nov/09/energy-policy-nuclear-coal . Mixed n=1 views on that but SMR looks like the better solution and no time machine to change the past now anyway - getting on with the future 'Generate in Britain' (and to a lesser extent some 'dither+delay' on upgrade the grid although that's a more complicated issue) is 'fair game' for genuine criticism though IMO)

[Deleted]

Dec 27, 2021 14:11:42 GMT John Chanin said:

It’s important not to get hung up on simple solutions to complex problems, and also not to be too binary or absolutist - these things are not all or nothing. Effective delivery plans need to acknowledge practical difficulties and differences from one context to another. They also need transitional actions, as this is a process, which is going to take a long time.  And of course your delivery plan will need constant adjustment in the light of experience.  Your delivery plan also will seek to achieve the objective - in this case net zero carbon emissions - with the minimum disruption of people’s lives and standards of living.  No-one ever said this was easy.

However we can all agree that our government (and pretty much every other) does not right now have a delivery plan.  It’s going to require a cabinet minister and a department to construct, monitor, and deliver one. At the moment there is just Alok Sharma, with no permanent institutional back up, and limited political power.  And there remains strong ideological resistance from significant chunks of the Conservative Party to required measures, as well as the inevitable short termism of democratic politics. 

Generally agree, notably with your first paragraph but Sharma is no longer the delivery chap. Also, do you have anything to substantiate your final sentence? UK[1] has moved faster than most countries (on actual delivery as well as the futures (which is not set) 'blah, blah, blah')

climateactiontracker.org

[1] There are some devolved issues. More significant is the fact that UK doesn't have monopoly state owned generation-supply (not that my n=1 would want that) but CON HMG can certainly influence the outcome via policies, pricing/risk sharing agreements, appropriate 'assistance' to private sector, etc.

[jib]

@tw

Generally agree.

I suppose Milliband would have gone all for nuclear, French style.

I went for a drive around the promised land of new nuclear in Wylfa a few days ago. Fallow fields, demolished houses. All a bit sad.

[Deleted]

Dec 27, 2021 23:21:04 GMT jib said:

@tw

Generally agree.

I suppose Milliband would have gone all for nuclear, French style.

I went for a drive around the promised land of new nuclear in Wylfa a few days ago. Fallow fields, demolished houses. All a bit sad.

Hitachi proposed a different type of 'old' nuclear to the EDF style and we'll never know if Miliband would have gone 'all' French. Wylfa might get SMR and/or 'hybrid' (and hopefully that is announced before GE'24!). Plenty of articles posted in the past but a repost of one option being considered:

www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-55682005

One concern is the loss of skills and local jobs due to what will certainly be a large gap between decommissioning of the 'old-old' and any new SMR/other plants and that is a concern in other sites as well (that is part of my 'mixed' feeling about not committing to more sites although the main one is the increased reliance on nat.gas and imported energy due to the 'dither and delay'). Generate in Britain means British jobs for British workers although I'm certainly glad we didn't approve a load of EDF plants for sure!

[leftieliberal]

An interesting article on why going green is not always a simple process: www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/29/maine-renewable-energy-hydropower-new-england

It illustrates that the answer to having surplus hydropower in Canada and a need for renewable energy in New England is not as simple as connecting a cable between the two. Accepting a smaller profit by giving indigenous Canadians a cut of the hydropower revenues and running the cables underground could have smoothed away the opposition to the project.

[leftieliberal]

A possible dispute approaching in the EU over what power is 'green'.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59850093

Naturally the French want to have their existing nuclear power stations considered as 'green' which arguably they are since all the embodied carbon in them is part of historical emissions not future emissions, while the Germans want to phase out all nuclear power quickly even though it will leave them more dependent on Russian gas and their own lignite, the dirtiest fuel of all.

[leftieliberal]

The Times and Financial Times are reporting that Mercedes-Benz have made an electric car that can travel from Southampton to Inverness on a single charge. It is due to go into production in 2024. If you don't have access through the paywalls you can see the front-page article in the Times on the BBC web site: www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-59875813

This could be a real game-changer for electric vehicles.

[Deleted]

Jan 5, 2022 10:39:58 GMT leftieliberal said:

The Times and Financial Times are reporting that Mercedes-Benz have made an electric car that can travel from Southampton to Inverness on a single charge. It is due to go into production in 2024. If you don't have access through the paywalls you can see the front-page article in the Times on the BBC web site: www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-59875813

This could be a real game-changer for electric vehicles.

Read that this morning too-looks like a massive tech. step forward.

The article says China already claims a car battery with that range.

[Deleted]

colin, leftieliberal From Jul'21:

Mercedes-Benz Working on EV with More Than 620 Miles of Range

www.caranddriver.com/news/a37102772/mercedes-benz-eqxx-preview/

It is however great to see the prototype deliver on the promises. As always the 'actual' range in real World conditions will be lower but that is still almost 50% above current in-production models and largely solves the 'range hesitancy' concern (although knowing 'better' EVs are coming might mean some folks hold on a bit longer before switching from their ICE)

Most of the gain is from 'efficiency' (weight savings and aerodynamics) which can be easily 'copied' by everyone else but it will also have a bigger (in kWh but not weight) battery. 

[leftieliberal]

Just be aware that Fossil Fuel firms are placing Google Ads that look like search results and appear above real search results.

www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jan/05/fossil-fuel-firms-among-biggest-spenders-on-google-ads-that-look-like-search-results

"ExxonMobil, Shell, Aramco, McKinsey, and Goldman Sachs were among the top-20 advertisers on the search terms, while a number of other fossil fuel producers and their financiers also placed ads."

[John Chanin]

Jan 6, 2022 14:53:16 GMT leftieliberal said:

Just be aware that Fossil Fuel firms are placing Google Ads that look like search results and appear above real search results.

www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jan/05/fossil-fuel-firms-among-biggest-spenders-on-google-ads-that-look-like-search-results

"ExxonMobil, Shell, Aramco, McKinsey, and Goldman Sachs were among the top-20 advertisers on the search terms, while a number of other fossil fuel producers and their financiers also placed ads."

For heaven’s sake, surely everyone knows by now, since everyone uses Google, that the top 2 or 3 results of a query are adverts.  They are clearly marked “ad”.  You’d have to be particularly stupid or a new computer user to think anything else.

I suspect most people like me simply ignore the ads, with the sole exception being if you are trying to buy something.

[Deleted]

Car Sales data for 2021 shows big increase in EVs ('2021 the most successful year in history for electric vehicle uptake as more new battery electric vehicles (BEVs) were registered than over the previous five years combined.') and big drop in diesel.

Lots of supply chain issues behind the disappointing total sales numbers ('The figures underline the ongoing impact of Covid and the semiconductor shortage on the industry') and those will vary by company/model but likely resolved in 2022.

www.smmt.co.uk/2022/01/covid-stalls-2021-uk-new-car-market-but-record-ev-sales-show-future-direction/

(I prefer the raw data but see also articles in most press - with 'bias' glasses on!

[leftieliberal]

Jan 6, 2022 16:08:52 GMT John Chanin said:

Jan 6, 2022 14:53:16 GMT leftieliberal said:

For heaven’s sake, surely everyone knows by now, since everyone uses Google, that the top 2 or 3 results of a query are adverts.  They are clearly marked “ad”.  You’d have to be particularly stupid or a new computer user to think anything else.

I suspect most people like me simply ignore the ads, with the sole exception being if you are trying to buy something.

I noticed that you missed the piece about Google snippets, that are not maked as Ads! 

[leftieliberal]

Another The Conversation article that is worth reading. theconversation.com/unusually-calm-and-cloudy-weather-led-to-resurgence-in-fossil-fuel-use-in-2021-174573

It has quite an enlightening table of electricity generation by type since 2009. Also I'm glad to see them emphasising storage '...which leaves a significant challenge of storage over medium and seasonal timescales.' and the risks of transport electrification.

[Deleted]

Jan 15, 2022 17:22:03 GMT leftieliberal said:

Another The Conversation article that is worth reading. theconversation.com/unusually-calm-and-cloudy-weather-led-to-resurgence-in-fossil-fuel-use-in-2021-174573

It has quite an enlightening table of electricity generation by type since 2009. Also I'm glad to see them emphasising storage '...which leaves a significant challenge of storage over medium and seasonal timescales.' and the risks of transport electrification.

Thank you for posting that excellent piece. I'll pick out one of the 'click-thrus' of a very well sourced piece and quote this part:

'Currently, the heavy lifting in balancing Great Britain’s electricity and heat sectors is done by natural gas, capable of contributing 3-4 TWh towards managing imbalance daily, and over 100 TWh seasonally'

zenodo.org/record/5172034#.YeMS4y2l23U

I'll also quote form page 12 in the report:

'Solutions must be found for all timescales, but our results show the ‘optimum’ solution for short timescales is not always the same as for longer ones. Similarly, the ‘optimum’ for the electricity sector alone is not the same as in a system that also considers heat demand with its highly seasonal characteristic'

All very obvious stuff but great to see a detailed analysis, with numbers, that perhaps doesn't have the view of being biased (eg it didn't come from the grid operator, NG, or from CON HMG)

[leftieliberal]

Encouraging news on the renewable energy fromt: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-60002110

Companies don't pay lots of money unless they are planning to develop as quickly as possible.

"CES had said it is hoped that as much as 10GW of new generating capacity could be built over the next decade as a result of the project - enough to power every home in Scotland."

[Deleted]

leftieliberal Another excellent bit of info. Thank you for posting on the Issue Specific threads, I hope others start to post and constructively post info and discuss specific issues on the new feature of UKPR2. From your link, and fairly obvious, then I'll quote on section:

That means a growing use of smart technology and increased storage - through batteries or green hydrogen - will become critical in the coming years.

Scotland will likely move to a position of major energy exporter (either as green electricity (for which they'll need vastly more interconnector capacity and/or as green hydrogen - likely a bit of both) and I'm not patronising the Scots when I call Scotland the 'land of wind and hydrogen' (perhaps also an increased role for pumped hydro but we've discussed the issues on that in the past)

I also note from the link the major and vital role of 'big O+G' (eg Shell and BP) in developing the technology (eg floating wind farms) and paying fees. These companies are not the 'enemy', they have the 'self-survival' incentive to invest in the tech and in the production side as UK and rWorld move to end fossil fuel use and Net Zero. They will also be needed for the 'bridge' and hence if we hit them with a Windfall Tax then we should (IMO) give a 'quid pro quo' of approving various new development of gas fields (eg Jackdaw). 

[alec]

leftieliberal - good to see the wind developments are continuing. I would say that it's a bit unfortunate though that the BBC Scotland's Environment & Rural Affairs correspondent that @tw quoted above rattled off the somewhat simplistic green hydrogen and battery options for the storage issue. I would class that as a non-expert journalist buying the line spun by industry lobbyists.

Experts within the field not so closely engaged with the gas network companies (who are very keen to promote hydrogen) - are seeing abundant opportunities for large scale energy storage in more efficient ways. I've worked for the last few years on a couple of prospective minewater heating schemes, and these offer huge potential. They work, in the right circumstances, and I've seen a Dutch scheme that has developed over the years and now runs on a commercial basis after some state funding for the set up costs.

The beauty is that these systems are reversable, so can be used for cooling in summer, but they can also serve as a dump load for any excess generation at any time (just pass the return flow over a heating element). The potential scale is huge. See this recent study - www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484720317078#b15

"Our calculations indicate that the theoretical potential for large-scale underground thermal-energy storage in the UK is substantial, much larger than which might ever be needed and the location of such storage is well matched to the places where people live and work and therefore where the demand for heat occurs."

I've worked with the authors of this paper and know them well, and they know their stuff, but this isn't a very sexy part of the energy mix. It lends itself to local developments, and needs close engagement with residents for it to work. While that is very good for more community based solutions, it's bad for big corporations. We definitely have a situation where big business is promoting the 'wrong' solution to governments because they see things like batteries and hydrogen as a good way to diversify their fossil fuel businesses, whereas better and simpler options are readily available.

[jib]

Interesting how France is dealing with the energy crisis

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-15/france-s-nuclear-champion-sacrificed-to-stave-off-energy-crisis

France really looks to be in trouble though with large nuclear, c. 20% out of action due to physical defects. A future well avoided for the UK.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jan 18, 2022 20:02:55 GMT jib said:

Interesting how France is dealing with the energy crisis

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-15/france-s-nuclear-champion-sacrificed-to-stave-off-energy-crisis

France really looks to be in trouble though with large nuclear, c. 20% out of action due to physical defects. A future well avoided for the UK.

there was an article in the Telegraph about it, which IIRC suggested we might be in for a similar future regarding defects since we are buying their reactors. (Hence it argues we should be doing the Rolls Royce Small modular thing instead. Or molten salt reactors which, at last, seem to be getting more of a mention). 

[alec]

@job and c-a-r-f-r-e-w - the nuclear issue is problematic. I've tried to pont ut many times that while wind & renewables are intermittent, they aren't unpredictable. We have pretty good experience at predicting wind output from 2 weeks out, and when we do hit a supply crunch, while lack of wind may be a contributor, it's the lack of functioning back up that is the cause. Nuclear is great in very many ways, but current UK nuclear capacity utilisation is around 60% because of permenent reductions in outputs and unplanned shutdowns. New reactors should be better, but there remains the issue of what happens when jellyfish clog up the water cooling system and you suddenly lose a large chunk of generation unexpectedly. That sort of thing never happens with renewables on that scale.

For that reason I also quite like the small packaged nuclear options.

[davem]

As we are on a polling site, any views on how well the transfers from ne supplier to another going and who will be blamed.

In my case we were with Peoples Energy and very happy with the service and the real time billing. We were transfer to British Gas and the service is awful, they don’t seem to be able to give me a monthly update on my bills, never mind real time, even though we have a smartmeter. Add to that they have yet to transfer the £606 credit n my previous account to the new account five months after the switch. Will this effect people opinion of the government and their support for free markets in energy?.

[Deleted]

Jan 18, 2022 20:02:55 GMT jib said:

Interesting how France is dealing with the energy crisis

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-15/france-s-nuclear-champion-sacrificed-to-stave-off-energy-crisis

France really looks to be in trouble though with large nuclear, c. 20% out of action due to physical defects. A future well avoided for the UK.

Lots of other snippets in the piece you posted. 

It had been trying, and so far failing, to convince European Union competition authorities...
The extra funds would have helped the company make the investments in nuclear, wind and solar that are essential if the France is to meet its commitments under the Paris climate agreement 

So was your comment on 'future well avoided' for the UK related to that 
Germany is 'anti-nuclear', although I'm obviously not suggesting that is the reason behind EC's decision making. 

EDF certainly messed up by over selling forward then hitting maintenance issues (which UK has seen in our old fleet) and huge delays in rolling out new sites (eg Flamanville3), so certainly 'in hindsight' it is good UK only signed off on the one new French dog (Hinckley C) being added to the UK fleet. In a parallel universe were LAB won in GE'10 then they have 10 of those dogs instead of just the 1 that CON approved.

Ed Miliband paves way for most ambitious fleet of nuclear reactors in Europe
Ten sites for nuclear reactors announced as part of UK energy strategy that includes 'clean coal' and wind power

www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/nov/09/energy-policy-nuclear-coal

[leftieliberal]

Jan 19, 2022 16:32:30 GMT davem said:

As we are on a polling site, any views on how well the transfers from ne supplier to another going and who will be blamed.

In my case we were with Peoples Energy and very happy with the service and the real time billing. We were transfer to British Gas and the service is awful, they don’t seem to be able to give me a monthly update on my bills, never mind real time, even though we have a smartmeter. Add to that they have yet to transfer the £606 credit n my previous account to the new account five months after the switch. Will this effect people opinion of the government and their support for free markets in energy?.

I'm with Bulb and very happy that they were too big just to transfer their customers to a new supplier. So for me everything is the same as it was, but the company is now run by the administrators. I'm going to sit tight and see what happens in April. 

[Deleted]

Jan 19, 2022 16:32:30 GMT davem said:

As we are on a polling site, any views on how well the transfers from ne supplier to another going and who will be blamed.

I haven't seen any polling, if anyone else has then can they please post.

[leftieliberal]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-60073706

I'm not really surprised by this. Even though we need more inter-connectors, the people behind this project are very dubious.

[Deleted]

'British jobs for British workers', 'Build it in Britain', Brexit is a 'catalyst for change' as we 'Bung Back Better'.

UK backs Britishvolt battery plant, enabling $2.3bln in private funding..
Britishvolt nor the government divulged the amount of state funding, but a source with knowledge of the matter, declining to be named, said it was believed to be around 100 million pounds

www.reuters.com/article/autos-britishvolt-factory/uk-backs-britishvolt-battery-plant-enabling-2-3bln-in-private-funding-idUKL1N2U00UZ

[pete]

Jan 21, 2022 9:04:17 GMT @tw said:

'British jobs for British workers', 'Build it in Britain', Brexit is a 'catalyst for change' as we 'Bung Back Better'.

UK backs Britishvolt battery plant, enabling $2.3bln in private funding..
Britishvolt nor the government divulged the amount of state funding, but a source with knowledge of the matter, declining to be named, said it was believed to be around 100 million pounds

www.reuters.com/article/autos-britishvolt-factory/uk-backs-britishvolt-battery-plant-enabling-2-3bln-in-private-funding-idUKL1N2U00UZ

Lovely. a nice bit of socialism helping to bring jobs to Britain. A long way to go before brexit supporters can start crowing how great brexit is. I mean, we're going to lose 4% of GDP for starters. Boris Johnson cannot escape the costs of Brexit - Financial ...https://www.ft.com › content
3 Nov 2021 — Four per cent scarring means the UK will forgo about £80bn a year in income (based on today's GDP) at a rough cost to the exchequer of £32bn ...

[leftieliberal]

Another straw in the wind: www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jan/23/uks-biggest-private-pension-fund-to-shift-5bn-away-from-polluters

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jan 19, 2022 12:50:32 GMT alec said:

@job and c-a-r-f-r-e-w - the nuclear issue is problematic. I've tried to pont ut many times that while wind & renewables are intermittent, they aren't unpredictable. We have pretty good experience at predicting wind output from 2 weeks out, and when we do hit a supply crunch, while lack of wind may be a contributor, it's the lack of functioning back up that is the cause. Nuclear is great in very many ways, but current UK nuclear capacity utilisation is around 60% because of permenent reductions in outputs and unplanned shutdowns. New reactors should be better, but there remains the issue of what happens when jellyfish clog up the water cooling system and you suddenly lose a large chunk of generation unexpectedly. That sort of thing never happens with renewables on that scale.

For that reason I also quite like the small packaged nuclear options.

Yes, compared with molten salt, the Rolls SMR isn’t as elegant, and still involves the complications (and risks and extra irradiated waste) of pressurised water cooling, and reprocessing of fuel rods etc., but it has the advantage of being rather more developed. If Molten salt takes off, however, it calls into question how long other methods will last.