Energy Markets and Net Zero

[alec]

John Chanin - "Small modular reactors are well worth investing in."

Yes, I thought that, from a non-expert point of view, but it rather seems the experts thought otherwise, as with domestic hydrogen. The point is that we've been making small modular reactors for a long time, they are integral parts of the defence sector, so we know already exactly how they work and what the prospects are, and the unit cost remains very expensive. I suspect the government was rather blinded by the lobbying of a well known UK company, and didn't listen to the fundamentals discussed by the independent experts, and as a result we've passed by the technologically simple options.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Limitless ‘white’ hydrogen under our feet may soon shatter all energy assumptions
There’s a real possibility that vast reserves of this clean fuel can be extracted at competitive costs


“We are suddenly waking up to the very real possibility that vast reserves of natural hydrogen lie under our feet and can plausibly be extracted at costs that blow away the competition, ultimately undercutting methane on pure price.

Scientists have long argued that pockets of exploitable geological hydrogen are more abundant than hitherto supposed.

The perpetual burning gas at Chimaera in Turkey – believed to be the source of the Olympic flame – has a hydrogen content reaching 11.3pc. There is another such marvel at Los Fuegos Eternos in the Philippines.

It has been known since 2012 that hydrogen beneath the village of Bourakébougou in Mali has 98pc purity. The site was discovered in the 1980s when it blew up in the face of a local man smoking a cigarette while drilling for water.

Professor Alain Prinzhofer from the Institute of Physics in Paris found that the gas flow remained constant over time – the pressure even rose – confirming a hypothesis that hydrogen can keep renewing itself by a chemical reaction underground.

What is new is that the world now needs that hydrogen and is acting on the insights.

The US Geological Survey concluded in April that there is probably enough accessible hydrogen in the earth’s subsurface to meet total global demand for “hundreds of years”.

The US Energy Department is drawing up plans to help kick start the industry, deeming the potential “astronomical”.

Viacheslav Zgonnik, a Ukrainian geologist, thinks white geologic hydrogen could be so cheap and abundant that it conquers the energy market.

“We think that we can reach $1 a kilo in the long-run and provide baseload power 24/7. It can be compressed for storage in steel tanks. It is not that expensive,” he said.

If so, that raises awkward questions about the eye-watering subsidies going into green variants (from electrolysis) and blue variants (natural gas with carbon capture).

Green hydrogen costs $3 to $4 today. It will become cheaper with scale, but getting much below $2 will be hard: you currently lose 70pc of the original energy in the making, and it requires a massive electrolyser industry that does not yet exist.

Are the EU, the UK, Japan, and others, barking up the wrong tree with their hydrogen strategies?

And is the vogue for drilling bans in Europe an ecological own-goal? Hydrogen wells use much the same drill kit as the oil and gas industry, with some need for modification since hydrogen degrades metal piping, and the tiny molecule leaks easily.

“We can get to scale faster than with green hydrogen and without using up the land surface that you need for renewables.

“It makes much more sense to leverage up the potential of natural hydrogen. But if you look at the grants, they are all going to green hydrogen projects. That needs correcting rapidly,” he said.”

Telegraph

[Mr Poppy]

Jul 19, 2023 18:15:38 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Limitless ‘white’ hydrogen under our feet may soon shatter all energy assumptions
There’s a real possibility that vast reserves of this clean fuel can be extracted at competitive costs

...And is the vogue for drilling bans in Europe an ecological own-goal? Hydrogen wells use much the same drill kit as the oil and gas industry, with some need for modification since hydrogen degrades metal piping, and the tiny molecule leaks easily.
...

Telegraph

No wish to shoot the messenger but Torygraph likes fracking and the "same drill kit" is... fracking

"What is White hydrogen – The natural and pure elemental form of hydrogen, which is primarily found in deep underground deposits and released through fracking"
www.hydrogenfuelnews.com/what-is-white-hydrogen/8552916/?

If you open up the doors to fracking then the 'vested interests' might think start with a substance we already use in huge quantities for heating/lecky, easier to handle, etc. and hence fall into 'climate delay' trap?

I'm glad UK will be providing new licenses for N.Sea O&G for "just transition" but was somewhat suspicious of the 'motive' behind the Torygraph piece when I read it t'other day. Hopefully my suspicions are incorrect and we should certainly pursue a variety of options.

As discussed before then if we build massive amounts of renewables and a decent amount of new-new nuclear then we'll have some "nice" problems to fix later. If we end up with loads of Green (and pink) hydrogen and White becomes even cheaper then "happy days". What I'm keen to avoid is thinking there is a magic "limitless" supply of something (eg nuclear fusion) and that means we shouldn't invest in "known" solutions (eg new-new nuclear which is better than old-old nuclear, green hydrogen, etc). 

[lens]

Jul 19, 2023 7:39:34 GMT John Chanin said:

Jul 18, 2023 19:16:41 GMT alec said:

lens - going the same way - www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy/extremely-concerned-future-of-uk-hydrogen-heating-trials-hangs-in-the-balance-as-opposition-grows-in-redcar/2-1-1486630

The Conservatives have spaffed around, wasting a great deal of time on H2 for domestic heating, while Europe is getting on with the job of insulating and installing heat pumps 10 times faster than we're managing. There have also been recent reports flagging the risks of the small nuclear options too, with no sign that they will ever be competitive and that the fundamental problems of nuclear of cost and waste remain unresolved, against which background the idea that smaller would be more cost effective was always a bit of PR puff.

All governments I think are prone to falling for the high tech promises, but this government more than most, because they are desperate to believe someone can deliver a tech answer that spares them from doing the grunt work.

 Hydrogen as a fuel for standard domestic use definitely looks like a non-starter, but it may have applications in bulk, and pilot studies seem worthwhile.

There is no question that hydrogen *does already* have applications in bulk - it's an essential feedstock in much of industry and chemical processes, and has been for a long time. We don't need any pilot study for that.

But ask where it comes from. And the answer at the moment is overwhelmingly from reforming fossil fuels, with consequent carbon emissions in the process. Yes, it's *possible* to make it in a green fashion via electrolysis - but it's more expensive and there is not going to be remotely the capacity to produce anything close enough to displace dirty hydrogen used in industry for years and years, even forgetting about relative costs.

So why on earth worry about using it now to dilute and displace natural gas in the domestic gas grid? If it's green, why not use it to dispace "dirty" hydrogen for industrial use? (Where hydrogen and not natural gas is necessary in it's own right?) Yes, the post above links to trials in such as Germany where just such is being trialled - but why on earth do it?

And the answer is quite simply vested interests. Exactly where the pressure in this country is also coming from for such trials. If your entire business model is reliant on the supply of gas via the UK gas grid, wouldn't you want to desperately try to maintain your business model? Fortunately, they don't seem to be having the success here that they have had elsewhere. It's not a question of the UK being "left behind", it's a case that we may have seen through vested interests dressing themselves up with greenwashing.

None of this should be seen as denying that there should be a massive future industry producing green hydrogen. But such should be directed towards replacing dirty hydrogen in industry - not propping up the existing gas supply industry.

Yes, let's build out as much solar and wind generation as possible - but such should be firstly used as electricity in it's own right, and secondly to produce green hydrogen as a chemical feedstock. Turning electricity into gas to pipe for domestic heating is just not viable. Generate a kWh of green electricity, and it makes far more sense to just use it directly for domestic heating - not produce much less than a kWh equivalent of gas for the same purpose. And that's without even thinking about the whole heat pump argument (where a kWh of electricity may translate to typically 3 kWh of heat to the home). You get far more bang for your buck - or kWh - with even electric resistive heating than the hydrogen route.

It's as said before - historically electricity has been made from fossil fuels, so hardly surprisingly per kWh electricity has been more expensive than gas. But make gas from electricity and the tables are turned.It's one thing if you need one or the other in it's own right - elecricity to power a TV, or hydrogen as a chemical feedstuff - but if purely as energy, for heating, expect an inevitable swing from gas to electric.

[Mr Poppy]

Jul 20, 2023 1:00:37 GMT mercian said:

Jul 19, 2023 11:16:43 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

If you are worried about inflation, the key is to invest in things that will reduce inflation. Like cheaper energy. Cheaper housing etc.
(And it’s not necessarily a minority view, unless a majority were against energy subsidies etc.)

Doesn't renewable energy have to be subsidised? Hence it would otherwise be usually more expensive than other energy?

Quick answers: 'depends'.

Longer answer: In the early stages then govts have helped with R&D costs and set-up contracts that ensure the viability but over time they are often dropped and 'compete' on price - it's a bit more complex as most renewables are also "intermittent" where as nuclear/fossil fuels are "on demand".

The other key factor is the price of coal/oil/gas, noting that UK is a net importer of gas so pays the regional 'market' price due to interconnections to Europe and the issue of their historic reliance on Russian gas (ie US gas was cheaper but there is a limit on LNG export-shipping capacity so 'regional' price differences opened up when Russia stopped exports to most* of Europe). So, sometimes making leccy from gas is cheaper than renewables - sometimes not. 

The big benefits for renewables are

a/ UK based so we're not reliant on imports from places like Russia, Saudi, Qatar
b/ Whilst supply is "intermittent" and that impacts spot/short-term prices, the price is far less volatile than gas in the medium-long term (and storage can and should take care of short-term fluctuations)
c/ The environmental damage and, in ££ terms, the 'net present value' of the future cost of the climate crisis if we don't transition away from fossil fuels faster

Combined then the above justify some upfront help for renewables to gain 'economies of scale', etc but with the expectation the 'subsidy' is not permanent. Biden is giving likes of Hydrogen a big helping hand but that is not intended to be permanent as eventually the 'economies of scale' will kick in and the subsidy will not be needed. UK doesn't have US kind of cash to splash but can certainly do more in some areas and act faster on new-new nuclear (finally getting done) and lots of other areas previously discussed on this thread (eg planning, approvals, grid upgrades, etc) - none of which require much, if any, taxpayer money - just likes of Shapps to actually make decisions and then private sector companies can borrow to invest (with pension/insurance companies able to buy more of such private sector debt in the future)

* Although it's 'business as usual' for some EU countries:
Austria’s OMV to continue to import Russian gas, chief says
www.ft.com/content/304034be-9cd5-406d-b668-894c4eac5a76



 

[Mr Poppy]

Jul 24, 2023 19:46:14 GMT John Chanin said:

Jul 24, 2023 15:18:36 GMT alec said:

Rishi Sunak says the net zero strategy must be ‘proportional and pragmatic’.

Meanwhile, this

/photo/1

Hmn.  Not sure this is right, as although sea ice is very low for antarctic winter, the data I have seen don't show it as dramatically low as that graph.

Sea ice is also a negative feedback, not a positive one.  As climate warms, more ice melts, which freshens the water, which makes it freeze more, and increase the albedo, which cools the climate.  There isn't therfore much of a correlation between the amount of sea ice and the amount of warming.

See: nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/antarctic-daily-image-update/

The 2023 line is roughly 2,000,000km2 below the 1981-2010 average 

[Mr Poppy]

Jul 25, 2023 19:19:34 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/25/gulf-stream-could-collapse-as-early-as-2025-study-suggests

And we are back tracking on even the most basic of measures to reduce omissions. Parts of the world are literally on fire as a direct consequence of global warming. Our media lampoons/demonises those who are protesting about this - while most people cling to 'their right' to put as much C02 into the air as they want.

I assume you are referring to "Just Stop Oil" protestors?

Their "tactics" are alienating the very people they need to win over. Instead of pissing people off they need to change their tactics. Then, perhaps, more people would be open to be persuaded about the urgency. 

There is obviously a key role for politicians to play as well and after the U&SR by-elections both main parties have shifted away from "green stuff" and below polling from YG shows the impact with a drop in the % for "A great deal" (although I'd tick the "A fair amount" box myself)

[Mr Poppy]

Reposting on the Issue Specific thread as IMO it is an important issue that might get lost on the main thread.

I think the 'new' article was in the Guardian:
Gulf Stream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests
www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/25/gulf-stream-could-collapse-as-early-as-2025-study-suggests

However, it has been touched on many times before. EG from 2021:
A critical ocean system may be heading for collapse due to climate change, study finds
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/08/05/change-ocean-collapse-atlantic-meridional/

OK, the Guardian article is a little on the 'click-baity' side but..

Jul 26, 2023 9:09:10 GMT athena said:

The Guardian's science reporting is dreadful and should never be relied on. The Science Media Centre does a fairly good job of eliciting comments on research that is likely to make the general news from researchers with relevant expertise. They have a round-up of comments on the paper used as the basis of the Guardian story on the potential collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

As the "round-up" link in above states there is a lot of uncertainty and climate change will not be "linear". This is similar to the antarctic discussion on 'feedback loops' of sea ice. Yes, we've seen huge changes in the past but it being doubt that humans are making this change happen quite fast and if it takes a few 'click-baity' headlines to grab attention then that is IMO not a bad thing. We need to start talking climate change a lot more seriously. "Low probability, high risk" is not a good risk to take!

NB UK is only 1% of the planet and there is a thin line being 'drawing attention' and pissing people off (eg "Just Stop Oil" protests) and if a headline is a bit too sensationalist then it does get a bit Daily Wail-esque but with both main UK parties moving to "climate delay" then the press can play a key role in shifting the debate back towards caring about "green crap". It's important as there is no Plan(et) B and whilst humans might adapt then a lot of the denizens that we share our planet with won't. 

[leftieliberal]

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/26/e-bike-batteries-energy-six-hand-grenades-electrical-safety/

E-bike batteries have as much energy as six hand grenades, a charity has warned as it called for them to be regulated like fireworks.

A report by campaign group Electrical Safety First estimated that a fully charged e-bike can release a similar amount of stored energy as the amount of TNT contained in six grenades.

It comes as the body has urged the Government to bring in new laws that would see e-bike and e-scooters regulated in a similar way to fireworks, heavy machinery and medical devices, with third-party checks on products.

The report comes after a number of high-profile fires started by e-bikes and e-scooters which have led to widespread damage and, in some cases, fatalities.

Lithium-ion batteries are a special fire-risk because of the danger of thermal runaway. While it has been known for years that batteries in laptops can catch fire, these are fairly small capacity, but the Li-ion batteries in  e-bikes and e-scooters are much larger.

[leftieliberal]

The energy cost of AI: www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/aug/01/techscape-environment-cost-ai-artificial-intelligence

You just type in your query, wait a few seconds, then get a response. Where’s the harm in that?
Let’s start with the water use. Training GPT-3 used by 3.5m litres of water through datacentre usage, according to one academic study, and that’s provided it used more efficient US datacentres. If it was trained on Microsoft’s datacentres in Asia, the water usage balloons to closer to 5m litres.
Estimating energy use, and the resulting carbon footprint, is trickier. One third-party analysis by researchers estimated that training of GPT-3, a predecessor of ChatGPT, consumed 1,287 MWh, and led to emissions of more than 550 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, similar to flying between New York and San Francisco on a return journey 550 times.
Sacrificing performance to reduce ecological impact seems unlikely. But we need to rethink AI’s use – and fast. Technology analysts Gartner believe that by 2025, unless a radical rethink takes place in how we develop AI systems to better account for their environmental impact, the energy consumption of AI tools will be greater than that of the entire human workforce. By 2030, machine learning training and data storage could account for 3.5% of all global electricity consumption. Pre-AI revolution, datacentres used up 1% of all the world’s electricity demand in any given year.

It turns out that AI is as bad (or worse) for the environment as crypto.

[Mr Poppy]

Aug 1, 2023 19:59:01 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

NB - regarding the importance of new battery tech, just came across this:

“Benchmark Minerals says China will soon have a 95pc share of the next generation of heavier sodium-ion batteries, which do not need lithium, cobalt or nickel, and which open the way for cheap home-energy storage on a mass scale.”

Somewhat 'old' news. See "Out of 20 sodium battery factories now planned or already under construction around the world, 16 are in China, according to Benchmark Minerals, a consulting firm. In two years, China will have nearly 95 percent of the world’s capacity to make sodium batteries."
www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/business/china-sodium-batteries.html

However, one of the biggest benefits of Sodium Ion Batteries (SIBs) is that they don't need lithium, cobalt or nickel..

After decades of China nicking 'Western' tech then some irony ahead as the West can nick Chinese tech. However, what is important is that the West does nick it and build the factories in the West but I'll avoid a tangent onto trade.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jul 19, 2023 19:26:48 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Jul 19, 2023 18:15:38 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Limitless ‘white’ hydrogen under our feet may soon shatter all energy assumptions
There’s a real possibility that vast reserves of this clean fuel can be extracted at competitive costs

...And is the vogue for drilling bans in Europe an ecological own-goal? Hydrogen wells use much the same drill kit as the oil and gas industry, with some need for modification since hydrogen degrades metal piping, and the tiny molecule leaks easily.
...

Telegraph

No wish to shoot the messenger but Torygraph likes fracking and the "same drill kit" is... fracking

"What is White hydrogen – The natural and pure elemental form of hydrogen, which is primarily found in deep underground deposits and released through fracking"
www.hydrogenfuelnews.com/what-is-white-hydrogen/8552916/?

If you open up the doors to fracking then the 'vested interests' might think start with a substance we already use in huge quantities for heating/lecky, easier to handle, etc. and hence fall into 'climate delay' trap?

Well then there is turquoise hydrogen, where they crack methane into hydrogen and carbon, with the carbon being rather less vexing to deal with than the CO₂ produced by the more normal way of getting hydrogen from methane. (Although you still have the fracking issue if methane is procured that way of course).

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Aug 1, 2023 20:19:38 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Aug 1, 2023 19:59:01 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

NB - regarding the importance of new battery tech, just came across this:

“Benchmark Minerals says China will soon have a 95pc share of the next generation of heavier sodium-ion batteries, which do not need lithium, cobalt or nickel, and which open the way for cheap home-energy storage on a mass scale.”

Somewhat 'old' news. See "Out of 20 sodium battery factories now planned or already under construction around the world, 16 are in China, according to Benchmark Minerals, a consulting firm. In two years, China will have nearly 95 percent of the world’s capacity to make sodium batteries."
www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/business/china-sodium-batteries.html

However, one of the biggest benefits of Sodium Ion Batteries (SIBs) is that they don't need lithium, cobalt or nickel..

After decades of China nicking 'Western' tech then some irony ahead as the West can nick Chinese tech. However, what is important is that the West does nick it and build the factories in the West but I'll avoid a tangent onto trade.

I’m kinda hoping we get to leapfrog and do something like the lithium-air and sodium-air batteries mentioned a while back, with markedly greater energy densities, but how long it takes for that is something else. (Things have been accelerating rather…)

[Mr Poppy]

Aug 2, 2023 20:11:44 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Aug 1, 2023 20:19:38 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Somewhat 'old' news. See "Out of 20 sodium battery factories now planned or already under construction around the world, 16 are in China, according to Benchmark Minerals, a consulting firm. In two years, China will have nearly 95 percent of the world’s capacity to make sodium batteries."
www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/business/china-sodium-batteries.html

However, one of the biggest benefits of Sodium Ion Batteries (SIBs) is that they don't need lithium, cobalt or nickel..

After decades of China nicking 'Western' tech then some irony ahead as the West can nick Chinese tech. However, what is important is that the West does nick it and build the factories in the West but I'll avoid a tangent onto trade.

I’m kinda hoping we get to leapfrog and do something like the lithium-air and sodium-air batteries mentioned a while back, with markedly greater energy densities, but how long it takes for that is something else. (Things have been accelerating rather…)

It is great to see all the advances in battery tech. The only -ve is the risk some people will delay adoption of current tech, waiting for the next big advancement (eg why buy a 300mile range EV when there might be 500mile+ range ones available in a few years time). Sodium-anything will be a lot cheaper as well as Sodium is so abundant. 

[Mr Poppy]

Very late and it's still going to be painfully slow* with ongoing NIMBY issues but a bit less bad is just about better than nothing.

UK to back plans to speed up construction of power networks
www.ft.com/content/9cf0c851-7980-4380-b9b5-78cbb7cfa4db

* "The government is set to back plans intended to halve the 14 years it currently takes on average to deliver the big electricity transmission projects needed to overhaul the UK’s energy system"

[alec]

leftieliberal - "E-bike batteries have as much energy as six hand grenades.."

Don't worry - you can't throw them anything like as far.

[Mr Poppy]

Aug 16, 2023 15:45:05 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

YouTube just threw up some climate science stuff in my feed, and I haven’t really looked at climate science before. but it seemed quite alarming so I had a gander…

It suggests there’s a confluence of things that are already starting to have an impact but it’s set to worsen over the next year or two. The factors driving up global temps are:

1. Aerosol forcing

2. An additional rise from a Super El Niño which is really only just getting started

3. Solar irradiation is peaking soon

4. We are missing a chunk of sea ice around Antarctica. At the moment it’s winter there, but come fall and winter for us and the huge extra expanse of dark water will absorb lots of extra sunlight

5. The earth energy imbalance is double what it was ten years ago

Like I said, only just finding out about it, but worrying. I guess we shall see how it pans out 😱😱😱

#4 and some relevant 'official' links was discussed recently, see:

nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/antarctic-daily-image-update/

Specific links for the others would be useful to see - they sound 'real' but I'd like to see the sources. Very worrying indeed and UK isn't the only govt that has shifted to 'delay' mode 

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Aug 16, 2023 15:53:54 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Aug 16, 2023 15:45:05 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

YouTube just threw up some climate science stuff in my feed, and I haven’t really looked at climate science before. but it seemed quite alarming so I had a gander…

It suggests there’s a confluence of things that are already starting to have an impact but it’s set to worsen over the next year or two. The factors driving up global temps are:

1. Aerosol forcing

2. An additional rise from a Super El Niño which is really only just getting started

3. Solar irradiation is peaking soon

4. We are missing a chunk of sea ice around Antarctica. At the moment it’s winter there, but come fall and winter for us and the huge extra expanse of dark water will absorb lots of extra sunlight

5. The earth energy imbalance is double what it was ten years ago

Like I said, only just finding out about it, but worrying. I guess we shall see how it pans out 😱😱😱

#4 and some relevant 'official' links was discussed recently, see:

nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/antarctic-daily-image-update/

Specific links for the others would be useful to see - they sound 'real' but I'd like to see the sources. Very worrying indeed and UK isn't the only govt that has shifted to 'delay' mode 

Here’s the original paper by Hansen, Trev 

www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/UhOh.14August2023.pdf

and a Guardian article from last month about him 

 www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/19/climate-crisis-james-hansen-scientist-warning

[Mr Poppy]

Aug 16, 2023 16:02:09 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Aug 16, 2023 15:53:54 GMT Mr Poppy said:

#4 and some relevant 'official' links was discussed recently, see:

nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/antarctic-daily-image-update/

Specific links for the others would be useful to see - they sound 'real' but I'd like to see the sources. Very worrying indeed and UK isn't the only govt that has shifted to 'delay' mode 

Here’s the original paper by Hansen, Trev 

www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/UhOh.14August2023.pdf

Thanks. The 'human made aerosols' is pretty complex as we clearly don't want to be chucking more fine airborne particles into the air - even if they reflect sunlight. 'Clouds' is a tricky one to fully understand or predict. As the article states the solar irradiance is a cycle and El Nino's come and go (for now at least) although I'm certainly not saying we should ignore the likely 'peak' caused by the coinciding factors this year. The trend is very clear and whilst some stuff (eg clouds) is a bit tricksty to analyse the Sea ice one is pretty simples and very worrying (as per previous discussion).

The scale in Fig.6 is pretty small but Earth does cover a lot of m2. 

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Aug 16, 2023 16:56:57 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Aug 16, 2023 16:02:09 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Here’s the original paper by Hansen, Trev 

www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/UhOh.14August2023.pdf

Thanks. The 'human made aerosols' is pretty complex as we clearly don't want to be chucking more fine airborne particles into the air - even if they reflect sunlight. 'Clouds' is a tricky one to fully understand or predict. As the article states the solar irradiance is a cycle and El Nino's come and go (for now at least) although I'm certainly not saying we should ignore the likely 'peak' caused by the coinciding factors this year. The trend is very clear and whilst some stuff (eg clouds) is a bit tricksty to analyse the Sea ice one is pretty simples and very worrying (as per previous discussion).

The scale in Fig.6 is pretty small but Earth does cover a lot of m2. 

yes, some of it is cyclic, but the confluence might lead to quite a bit of warming (and then in turn lead to more warming effects? More ice melting, methane release etc.?)

Scary stuff

[Mr Poppy]

Aug 16, 2023 17:00:34 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Aug 16, 2023 16:56:57 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Thanks. The 'human made aerosols' is pretty complex as we clearly don't want to be chucking more fine airborne particles into the air - even if they reflect sunlight. 'Clouds' is a tricky one to fully understand or predict. As the article states the solar irradiance is a cycle and El Nino's come and go (for now at least) although I'm certainly not saying we should ignore the likely 'peak' caused by the coinciding factors this year. The trend is very clear and whilst some stuff (eg clouds) is a bit tricksty to analyse the Sea ice one is pretty simples and very worrying (as per previous discussion).

The scale in Fig.6 is pretty small but Earth does cover a lot of m2. 

yes, some of it is cyclic, but the confluence might lead to quite a bit of warming (and then in turn lead to more warming effects? More ice melting, methane release etc.?)

Scary stuff

Yep. We covered not just the Antartica ice but the risk of perma-frost melting a while back as well. Different source but same kind of info:

"As the permafrost thaws, microbes and fungi get to work and digest dead plants and other organic matter in the previously frozen soil. The process produces carbon dioxide, methane (CH4), nitrous oxide and other gases"

"‘The release of permafrost carbon as greenhouse gases constitutes a positive feedback likely to amplify climate warming beyond most current Earth system model projections,’"

geographical.co.uk/climate-change/the-big-thaw-melting-permafrost-is-causing-a-global-problem

The problem with permafrost is that Russia doesn't give a shit and: "The permafrost regions occupy about 25% of the Northern Hemisphere's terrestrial surface, and almost 65% of that of Russia"

www.climatechangepost.com/russia/permafrost/#

That puts even more pressure on rWorld and why I'm such big supporter of stuff like a Carbon Border Adjustment Tax (which due to UK's trade deficit in goods would bring in quite a lot of £££ that we can use for stuff like 'Insulate Britain' and 'Build/Generate/Grow it in Britain'). CBAT would cause a temporary rise in inflation but as per our other discussions then HMG can mitigate a lot of that if they choose to and I'd start slowly on CBAT, albeit with a clear path set out stating it will expand in % and categories in the coming years/decades. 

[Mr Poppy]

SSE is one of the better Energy companies pushing ahead with Green tech and good to see they are being encouraged and rewarded in doing so:

SSE set to score government funding for green hydrogen projects
www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1023813/sse-set-to-score-government-funding-for-green-hydrogen-projects-1023813.html#

NB The Aldbrough Hydrogen Pathfinder project is for a 'peaker plant' and mainly 'proof of concept' leading the way to further, but limited, such plants in the future. The limited but important role of H2 powered peaker plants having been covered before. 

[Mr Poppy]

British designed tech used in:

Pioneering wind-powered cargo ship sets sail
www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-66543643

"I do predict by 2025 half the new-build ships will be ordered with wind propulsion," he said.
"The reason I'm so confident is our savings - one-and-a-half tonnes of fuel per day. Get four wings on a vessel, that's six tonnes of fuel saved, that's 20 tonnes of CO2 saved - per day. The numbers are massive."

Obviously less trade by sea and more 'Build/grow in Britain' would be better still but even when deep-sea cargo shipping moves to ammonia, maybe nuclear, whatever, then the 'fuel' savings by also using wind will mean ships built with modern sails now will be future ready.

[leftieliberal]

Aug 21, 2023 9:22:11 GMT Mr Poppy said:

British designed tech used in:

Pioneering wind-powered cargo ship sets sail
www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-66543643

"I do predict by 2025 half the new-build ships will be ordered with wind propulsion," he said.
"The reason I'm so confident is our savings - one-and-a-half tonnes of fuel per day. Get four wings on a vessel, that's six tonnes of fuel saved, that's 20 tonnes of CO2 saved - per day. The numbers are massive."

Obviously less trade by sea and more 'Build/grow in Britain' would be better still but even when deep-sea cargo shipping moves to ammonia, maybe nuclear, whatever, then the 'fuel' savings by also using wind will mean ships built with modern sails now will be future ready.

I don't expect nuclear-powered cargo ships any time soon. The one I remember was the NS Savannah (1962-72) but ports in many countries refused to let it land.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Advancing heat pump tech… (from the Telegraph)

“Britain is rock bottom in the OECD league for heat pump installations. At the risk of eco-heresy, this is not such a bad thing.

The heat pumps installed across the world over the last decade rely on F-gas refrigerants, mostly R410a with a greenhouse gas potency 2,100 times higher than CO2 over a 20-year span. These hydrofluorocarbons leak, which is why the European Commission wants to ban them.

Better, cleaner, hotter heat pumps are on the way, able to replace a gas boiler without having to tear out existing radiators. The coming generation uses CO2 or helium as the working medium instead of F-gases. Others rely on exotic new designs harnessing advances in electrochemistry. The technology is in ferment, like solar 20 years ago.

Helium pumps promise much higher temperatures while retaining the same magical conversion of one unit of electricity into three to four units of heat achieved by standard models today – its “Coefficient of Performance” (CoP).”

…

“Helium gives the extra lift. “When you compress helium it gets really hot. It’s non-toxic, non-flammable, and easy to work with. We could use hydrogen but that’s more tricky,” said Olvondo’s Roger Myrvang.”

…

“The French group Equium says it can produce 80-degree hot water without loss of CoP efficiency using helium enclosed at a pressure of 30 bars. It remains a gas for a very wide range of temperature, giving the heat pump more energy leverage.

BlueHeart Energy in the Netherlands says its compact thermo-accoustic heat pump can drop in as a direct replacement for gas boilers, reaching temperatures high enough for existing radiators in old homes with bad insulation. It can equally be used to cool buildings in summer.

Both companies are betting that we are on the cusp of a radical disruption of today’s vapour compression technology for heating, air-conditioning, and refrigeration. “There is no limit to large-scale development. It’s just a question of time, scaling, and industrialisation,” says Equium.

They have rivals, or course. The US Energy Department’s ARPA-E programme – origin of many of the world’s moonshot advances – is funding a heat pump based on ionocaloric technology.

Put crudely you add salt to remove heat; you take salt away to release heat. In this case it uses a sodium iodide salt mixed in a solvent of ethylene carbonate. A tiny amount of electricity can produce a large spike in temperature.

“We can heat as easily as we can cool, and we can pump it up to 100 degrees if we need to,” said Drew Lilley, the project leader at California’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and Calion Technologies.”

…

“Other ideas are bubbling away. France’s research institute CNRS is working with natural rubber. It heats up when it is stretched, and cools as it compresses.

I have no idea which technologies will prevail. Winners will have the lowest costs.

What is clear is that we are rushing towards a world where heating and cooling will be so cheap that we stop noticing utility bills, just as electric vehicles with GaN onboard chargers will soon cut EV charging costs to a tiny fraction of what it takes to fill a car at Mohammed bin Salman’s petrol pump.

If Britain is to surf this wave and avoid locking further into an obsolete and expensive energy system, it first needs to detoxify its national debate. Nowhere else in the developed world has there been such a revulsion against heat pumps.”


Mind you, regarding the Helium solution, aren’t there issues with the possibility of Helium becoming more scarce?)

[leftieliberal]

Aug 22, 2023 16:04:06 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Advancing heat pump tech… (from the Telegraph)

“Britain is rock bottom in the OECD league for heat pump installations. At the risk of eco-heresy, this is not such a bad thing.

The heat pumps installed across the world over the last decade rely on F-gas refrigerants, mostly R410a with a greenhouse gas potency 2,100 times higher than CO2 over a 20-year span. These hydrofluorocarbons leak, which is why the European Commission wants to ban them.

Better, cleaner, hotter heat pumps are on the way, able to replace a gas boiler without having to tear out existing radiators. The coming generation uses CO2 or helium as the working medium instead of F-gases. Others rely on exotic new designs harnessing advances in electrochemistry. The technology is in ferment, like solar 20 years ago.

Helium pumps promise much higher temperatures while retaining the same magical conversion of one unit of electricity into three to four units of heat achieved by standard models today – its “Coefficient of Performance” (CoP).”

…

“Helium gives the extra lift. “When you compress helium it gets really hot. It’s non-toxic, non-flammable, and easy to work with. We could use hydrogen but that’s more tricky,” said Olvondo’s Roger Myrvang.”

…

“The French group Equium says it can produce 80-degree hot water without loss of CoP efficiency using helium enclosed at a pressure of 30 bars. It remains a gas for a very wide range of temperature, giving the heat pump more energy leverage.

BlueHeart Energy in the Netherlands says its compact thermo-accoustic heat pump can drop in as a direct replacement for gas boilers, reaching temperatures high enough for existing radiators in old homes with bad insulation. It can equally be used to cool buildings in summer.

Both companies are betting that we are on the cusp of a radical disruption of today’s vapour compression technology for heating, air-conditioning, and refrigeration. “There is no limit to large-scale development. It’s just a question of time, scaling, and industrialisation,” says Equium.

They have rivals, or course. The US Energy Department’s ARPA-E programme – origin of many of the world’s moonshot advances – is funding a heat pump based on ionocaloric technology.

Put crudely you add salt to remove heat; you take salt away to release heat. In this case it uses a sodium iodide salt mixed in a solvent of ethylene carbonate. A tiny amount of electricity can produce a large spike in temperature.

“We can heat as easily as we can cool, and we can pump it up to 100 degrees if we need to,” said Drew Lilley, the project leader at California’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and Calion Technologies.”

…

“Other ideas are bubbling away. France’s research institute CNRS is working with natural rubber. It heats up when it is stretched, and cools as it compresses.

I have no idea which technologies will prevail. Winners will have the lowest costs.

What is clear is that we are rushing towards a world where heating and cooling will be so cheap that we stop noticing utility bills (who can forget the initial promise of nuclear power as being too cheap to meter), just as electric vehicles with GaN onboard chargers will soon cut EV charging costs to a tiny fraction of what it takes to fill a car at Mohammed bin Salman’s petrol pump.

If Britain is to surf this wave and avoid locking further into an obsolete and expensive energy system, it first needs to detoxify its national debate. Nowhere else in the developed world has there been such a revulsion against heat pumps.”


Mind you, regarding the Helium solution, aren’t there issues with the possibility of Helium becoming more scarce?)

I wouldn't trust anything I read in the Daily Telegraph. The most efficient thermodynamic cycle is the Carnot cycle and its efficiency as a heat pump is
T_hot/(T_hot-T_cold) where the temperatures are in Kelvin. It is not even theoretically possible to convert one unit of electricity to four units of heat if your cold reservoir is at 273 K and your hot reservoir is at 373 K (this is why radiators with heat pumps are cooler than radiators with gas boilers). As you are most likely to need heating in the winter that cold reservoir could be as low as 260K (and I'm not thinking of the Scottish Highlands). Heat pumps work better with air heating than with radiators because with the latter you have to transfer heat from the working fluid to the water and then from the water in the radiators to the air in the room.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Aug 22, 2023 16:42:39 GMT leftieliberal said:

Aug 22, 2023 16:04:06 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Advancing heat pump tech… (from the Telegraph)

“Britain is rock bottom in the OECD league for heat pump installations. At the risk of eco-heresy, this is not such a bad thing.

The heat pumps installed across the world over the last decade rely on F-gas refrigerants, mostly R410a with a greenhouse gas potency 2,100 times higher than CO2 over a 20-year span. These hydrofluorocarbons leak, which is why the European Commission wants to ban them.

Better, cleaner, hotter heat pumps are on the way, able to replace a gas boiler without having to tear out existing radiators. The coming generation uses CO2 or helium as the working medium instead of F-gases. Others rely on exotic new designs harnessing advances in electrochemistry. The technology is in ferment, like solar 20 years ago.

Helium pumps promise much higher temperatures while retaining the same magical conversion of one unit of electricity into three to four units of heat achieved by standard models today – its “Coefficient of Performance” (CoP).”

…

“Helium gives the extra lift. “When you compress helium it gets really hot. It’s non-toxic, non-flammable, and easy to work with. We could use hydrogen but that’s more tricky,” said Olvondo’s Roger Myrvang.”

…

“The French group Equium says it can produce 80-degree hot water without loss of CoP efficiency using helium enclosed at a pressure of 30 bars. It remains a gas for a very wide range of temperature, giving the heat pump more energy leverage.

BlueHeart Energy in the Netherlands says its compact thermo-accoustic heat pump can drop in as a direct replacement for gas boilers, reaching temperatures high enough for existing radiators in old homes with bad insulation. It can equally be used to cool buildings in summer.

Both companies are betting that we are on the cusp of a radical disruption of today’s vapour compression technology for heating, air-conditioning, and refrigeration. “There is no limit to large-scale development. It’s just a question of time, scaling, and industrialisation,” says Equium.

They have rivals, or course. The US Energy Department’s ARPA-E programme – origin of many of the world’s moonshot advances – is funding a heat pump based on ionocaloric technology.

Put crudely you add salt to remove heat; you take salt away to release heat. In this case it uses a sodium iodide salt mixed in a solvent of ethylene carbonate. A tiny amount of electricity can produce a large spike in temperature.

“We can heat as easily as we can cool, and we can pump it up to 100 degrees if we need to,” said Drew Lilley, the project leader at California’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and Calion Technologies.”

…

“Other ideas are bubbling away. France’s research institute CNRS is working with natural rubber. It heats up when it is stretched, and cools as it compresses.

I have no idea which technologies will prevail. Winners will have the lowest costs.

What is clear is that we are rushing towards a world where heating and cooling will be so cheap that we stop noticing utility bills (who can forget the initial promise of nuclear power as being too cheap to meter), just as electric vehicles with GaN onboard chargers will soon cut EV charging costs to a tiny fraction of what it takes to fill a car at Mohammed bin Salman’s petrol pump.

If Britain is to surf this wave and avoid locking further into an obsolete and expensive energy system, it first needs to detoxify its national debate. Nowhere else in the developed world has there been such a revulsion against heat pumps.”


Mind you, regarding the Helium solution, aren’t there issues with the possibility of Helium becoming more scarce?)

I wouldn't trust anything I read in the Daily Telegraph. The most efficient thermodynamic cycle is the Carnot cycle and its efficiency as a heat pump is
T_hot/(T_hot-T_cold) where the temperatures are in Kelvin. It is not even theoretically possible to convert one unit of electricity to four units of heat if your cold reservoir is at 273 K and your hot reservoir is at 373 K (this is why radiators with heat pumps are cooler than radiators with gas boilers). As you are most likely to need heating in the winter that cold reservoir could be as low as 260K (and I'm not thinking of the Scottish Highlands). Heat pumps work better with air heating than with radiators because with the latter you have to transfer heat from the working fluid to the water and then from the water in the radiators to the air in the room.

Yeah I know, I’ve talked about it before in a different context: it’s why using molten salt is more efficient than pressurised water for cooling nuclear reactors, because the molten salt is at a higher temp.

(The Carnot cycle doesn’t always quite apply - I talked about the Otto cycle when we were discussing the efficiency of piston engines etc. - In this instance efficiency is in part limited because you can’t keep raising the temp. without melting the engine etc.)

The numbers you picked give about 3.7 which isn’t so far off four. With some slightly different numbers you might get it to four times. 

p.s. I do find it of interest how the press convey such things, what they get right and what they struggle with. Very notable during the pandemic. They did tend to improve a bit over time it seemed…

[Mr Poppy]

c-a-r-f-r-e-w good to see folks looking to make a 'better wheel' but as with 'better batteries' then the risk is people wait for the better heat pumps and there will always be a better wheel!

Each project would be different but most people can probably increase their insulation AND run their heating lower. The 'need' to replace radiators hence being 'questionable' IMO but current guidelines mean people will likely be told they need to replace their radiators and hence a lot of people will baulk at the cost - even with a bung from HMG.

I have quite a long list of other issues with how calculations are made (eg solar and even wind is ignored, even with a decent battery and wood burning stoves to 'help' on really cold days).

However, when it comes to selling a house that hasn't been so 'over done' as the 'calculations' say it should then.. well.. don't get me started on that!

PS and paying top ££ for a house that has massively overdone it is a bit   as well. I don't need to walk around in shorts and t-shirt at 22C in the middle of Winter. I can (and do) put a jumper on in Winter and 16-18C is fine (cosy fire can get pretty cosy if I want to do some cosying but best I don't get into that either   )

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

@trev

If energy is cheap and available enough, then you don’t have to worry as much about insulation and you can supplement a heat pump output on days it isn’t quite enough. I do think making lots more green energy available remedies a lot of issues more generally.

[Mr Poppy]

Aug 22, 2023 17:24:36 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

@trev

If energy is cheap and available enough, then you don’t have to worry as much about insulation and you can supplement a heat pump output on days it isn’t quite enough. I do think making lots more green energy available remedies a lot of issues more generally.

Best not to go down that route chez nous. Not now I've sold all my shares in likes of Centrica for sure (1/2 joking!   )

Cutting energy demand is IMO v.v.v.important. Being able to supply lots of cheap, carbon neutral/-ve, energy is also v.v.v.important but IMO we need to do both and it's a separate discussion for how to reduce demand (eg better insulation) versus the supply mix. 

That 'confusion' was an issue back on the ol' UKPR but let's not drag that back up.

PS The section I highlighted in your post. I do that with a wood burning stove but I still don't want to burn that much wood - even though I plant 10x more than I would ever burn. If my house had crap insulation (as it did when I bought it) I'd be burning 3x the amount of wood I burn now (very roughly as lots of other changes as well)

PPS I'm pretty sure you wouldn't get anyone to install a heat pump project unless you had already ensured your house was well insulated. I bloody well hope not anyway!