Energy Markets and Net Zero

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Apr 21, 2023 8:06:32 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Apr 20, 2023 16:49:39 GMT leftieliberal said:

Good article by Damien Carrington in The Guardian: www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/20/down-to-earth-ipcc-emissions

Here is the graph he refers to: www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/figures/summary-for-policymakers/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_FigureSPM7.png

"First, solar and wind power are by far the best option, with the potential to cut a staggering 8bn tonnes from annual CO2 emissions by 2030. That is equivalent to the combined emissions of the US and European Union today. Even more startling is that most of that potential can be achieved at lower cost than just continuing with today’s electricity systems."

“What struck me especially was that wind and solar was so big,” Prof Kornelis Blok, at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, told me this week. Blok, who led the work on the chart, identified the winners: “The big five are wind, solar, energy efficiency, stopping deforestation and reducing methane emissions.”

Obviously there is also the issue of storage (in whatever form we do it) but that is probably in another graph somewhere in the report.

UK is of course well on its way to cut emission by 50% before 2030:

ourworldindata.org/co2/country/united-kingdom

The already approved pipeline of offshore wind farms will achieve that. We can and should speed some other stuff up a bit as well. 'Insulate Britain' being the #nobrainer area for UK (certainly not massive amounts of grid level solar - which uses up land that would better suited to other purposes).

Every country has the same challenge but different 'advantages' and historic issues to deal with (eg solar would be great for S.Europe/N.Africa and some countries are quite a lot further ahead than UK on 'Insulation' but quite a long way behind on reduction in coal usage). The link c-a-r-f-r-e-w supplied a while ago showed UK is massively down from 'peak coal' where as some other countries haven't even peaked yet and likes of Germany has gone backwards. 

Not sure if it’s been mentioned but have you had a look at Agrisolar/agrivoltaics? Developments in that look interesting. You can use panels alongside crops and the panels not only make leccy but can optimise the light the plants get, reduce evaporation and increase yields etc. 

Would need energy prices to fall, and need the economies of mass production, but something maybe worth looking out for. 

[Mr Poppy]

Apr 23, 2023 18:15:48 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Apr 21, 2023 8:06:32 GMT Mr Poppy said:

..

Not sure if it’s been mentioned but have you had a look at Agrisolar/agrivoltaics? Developments in that look interesting. You can use panels alongside crops and the panels not only make leccy but can optimise the light the plants get, reduce evaporation and increase yields etc. ..

Looks interesting and might well be useful in certain situations:

Agrivoltaics: Combining solar panels and agriculture into a win-win result
www.statkraft.com/newsroom/news-and-stories/2022/agrivoltaics-combining-solar-panels-and-agriculture/

In countries with drought and/or desertification problems them solar can potentially help with wells/desalination plants. Provide 'cheap' irrigation and reverse desertification. Although in some places, 'human' need for water will likely take priority over reversing some of humanities damage to our planet. Being able to generate leccy from solar much cheaper is certainly a great thing - I just hope we prioritise how+where we make best use of the tech (and 'grid level' solar ONLY farms in UK is not, IMO, a good use of solar or the land it would occupy) 

[leftieliberal]

Apr 24, 2023 7:50:09 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Apr 23, 2023 18:15:48 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Not sure if it’s been mentioned but have you had a look at Agrisolar/agrivoltaics? Developments in that look interesting. You can use panels alongside crops and the panels not only make leccy but can optimise the light the plants get, reduce evaporation and increase yields etc. ..

Looks interesting and might well be useful in certain situations:

Agrivoltaics: Combining solar panels and agriculture into a win-win result
www.statkraft.com/newsroom/news-and-stories/2022/agrivoltaics-combining-solar-panels-and-agriculture/

In countries with drought and/or desertification problems them solar can potentially help with wells/desalination plants. Provide 'cheap' irrigation and reverse desertification. Although in some places, 'human' need for water will likely take priority over reversing some of humanities damage to our planet. Being able to generate leccy from solar much cheaper is certainly a great thing - I just hope we prioritise how+where we make best use of the tech (and 'grid level' solar ONLY farms in UK is not, IMO, a good use of solar or the land it would occupy) 

Not all agricultural land is the same. In England and Wales it is divided into six grades: 1, 2, 3a, 3b, 4 and 5. The last two are described as "poor" and "very poor". Grades 1, 2 and 3a are described as "best and most versatile" and enjoy significant protection from development. So if someone is building a solar farm on grade 4 land it is a negligible loss to agriculture. Grade 3b land is where most of the disputes occur over land use.

[Mr Poppy]

Apr 24, 2023 13:22:47 GMT leftieliberal said:

Apr 24, 2023 7:50:09 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Looks interesting and might well be useful in certain situations:

Agrivoltaics: Combining solar panels and agriculture into a win-win result
www.statkraft.com/newsroom/news-and-stories/2022/agrivoltaics-combining-solar-panels-and-agriculture/

In countries with drought and/or desertification problems them solar can potentially help with wells/desalination plants. Provide 'cheap' irrigation and reverse desertification. Although in some places, 'human' need for water will likely take priority over reversing some of humanities damage to our planet. Being able to generate leccy from solar much cheaper is certainly a great thing - I just hope we prioritise how+where we make best use of the tech (and 'grid level' solar ONLY farms in UK is not, IMO, a good use of solar or the land it would occupy) 

Not all agricultural land is the same. In England and Wales it is divided into six grades: 1, 2, 3a, 3b, 4 and 5. The last two are described as "poor" and "very poor". Grades 1, 2 and 3a are described as "best and most versatile" and enjoy significant protection from development. So if someone is building a solar farm on grade 4 land it is a negligible loss to agriculture. Grade 3b land is where most of the disputes occur over land use.

Indeed. The map for England:
magic.defra.gov.uk/StaticMaps/Agricultural%20Land%20Classification%20-%20Provisional%20(England).pdf

Happy to look at specific examples of "poor" and "very poor" land where the vast majority would have better 'options'.

EG Moorland where peat restoration with wind farms on the top would IMO be the best use of that land

Hopefully obvious why much of NW.England wouldn't be very good location for grid level solar only farms (not much sun) although the issue of building solar on sides of rocky mountains, dam walls, etc can work in some areas - such as Switzerland
www.euronews.com/green/2023/02/07/switzerlands-solar-dam-why-are-sun-and-snow-the-perfect-mix-for-solar-energy 

Happy to also look at some specific English plans for massive solar farms which fortunately are being blocked in East of England (my 'neck of the woods', where we do get decent amount of sun, not too much wind (inland) and have a lot of arable land). I note ex-LDEM (and ex-PM) Truss even gets a mention in this article. I'll quote one section:

“We have at least 250,000 hectares of available south-facing commercial roof space [across the UK], which should be used for solar panels, along with domestic roof space and brownfield sites, before removing greenfield sites from vital food production"

www.edp24.co.uk/news/23134797.map-reveals-scale-proposed-solar-farm-ban-across-norfolk/

I appreciate a lot of "farmers" (often their children) don't want to farm and/or need some 'subsidies' to make farming viable. Being able to just cover your land with solar panels for a fixed £income is very tempting I'm sure and whilst I want my polity to have 'Energy security' then we also need to not get even worse with 'Food security'. 

Could be some locations in England where "Agrivoltaics*: Combining solar panels and agriculture into a win-win".. "looks interesting and might well be useful in certain situations" but few places where grid level solar ONLY farms make sense. If you have specific projects or parcels of land that you think should be used for solar only farms then by all means post the info for those sites. (I could pre-empt your reply and highlight a few in S.Wales where we could go one better with a 3x hybrid where wind turbines are above a solar farm with some grazing or agrivoltaics as well - but those are clearly not solar ONLY)

* Note in many cases the 'land' for agrivoltaics is green houses where the soil used isn't necessarily the soil of the land before the green houses were built. That might well work in some grade 4/5 places in England but once again would not be solar ONLY. 

PS There is also 'vertical farming' of course and some of that leccy could come from solar (eg panels placed on all the south-facing commercial/domestic roof space we have in UK)

[leftieliberal]

Apr 24, 2023 15:34:36 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Apr 24, 2023 13:22:47 GMT leftieliberal said:

Not all agricultural land is the same. In England and Wales it is divided into six grades: 1, 2, 3a, 3b, 4 and 5. The last two are described as "poor" and "very poor". Grades 1, 2 and 3a are described as "best and most versatile" and enjoy significant protection from development. So if someone is building a solar farm on grade 4 land it is a negligible loss to agriculture. Grade 3b land is where most of the disputes occur over land use.

Indeed. The map for England:
magic.defra.gov.uk/StaticMaps/Agricultural%20Land%20Classification%20-%20Provisional%20(England).pdf

Happy to look at specific examples of "poor" and "very poor" land where the vast majority would have better 'options'.

EG Moorland where peat restoration with wind farms on the top would IMO be the best use of that land

Hopefully obvious why much of NW.England wouldn't be very good location for grid level solar only farms (not much sun) although the issue of building solar on sides of rocky mountains, dam walls, etc can work in some areas - such as Switzerland
www.euronews.com/green/2023/02/07/switzerlands-solar-dam-why-are-sun-and-snow-the-perfect-mix-for-solar-energy 

Happy to also look at some specific English plans for massive solar farms which fortunately are being blocked in East of England (my 'neck of the woods', where we do get decent amount of sun, not too much wind (inland) and have a lot of arable land). I note ex-LDEM (and ex-PM) Truss even gets a mention in this article. I'll quote one section:

“We have at least 250,000 hectares of available south-facing commercial roof space [across the UK], which should be used for solar panels, along with domestic roof space and brownfield sites, before removing greenfield sites from vital food production"

www.edp24.co.uk/news/23134797.map-reveals-scale-proposed-solar-farm-ban-across-norfolk/

I appreciate a lot of "farmers" (often their children) don't want to farm and/or need some 'subsidies' to make farming viable. Being able to just cover your land with solar panels for a fixed £income is very tempting I'm sure and whilst I want my polity to have 'Energy security' then we also need to not get even worse with 'Food security'. 

Could be some locations in England where "Agrivoltaics*: Combining solar panels and agriculture into a win-win".. "looks interesting and might well be useful in certain situations" but few places where grid level solar ONLY farms make sense. If you have specific projects or parcels of land that you think should be used for solar only farms then by all means post the info for those sites. (I could pre-empt your reply and highlight a few in S.Wales where we could go one better with a 3x hybrid where wind turbines are above a solar farm with some grazing or agrivoltaics as well - but those are clearly not solar ONLY)

* Note in many cases the 'land' for agrivoltaics is green houses where the soil used isn't necessarily the soil of the land before the green houses were built. That might well work in some grade 4/5 places in England but once again would not be solar ONLY. 

PS There is also 'vertical farming' of course and some of that leccy could come from solar (eg panels placed on all the south-facing commercial/domestic roof space we have in UK)

Upland Devon is one example: this solar farm will be constructed near Pyworthy: www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0xoP6kJKb8&t=2011s They will still be grazing sheep, rather than cattle, on the land as they can easily graze between the solar panels, and they will also be rewilding. 

[Mr Poppy]

Apr 24, 2023 18:05:31 GMT leftieliberal said:

Apr 24, 2023 15:34:36 GMT Mr Poppy said:

.... If you have specific projects or parcels of land that you think should be used for solar only farms then by all means post the info for those sites. (I could pre-empt your reply and highlight a few in S.Wales where we could go one better with a 3x hybrid where wind turbines are above a solar farm with some grazing or agrivoltaics as well - but those are clearly not solar ONLY)
...

Upland Devon is one example: this solar farm will be constructed near Pyworthy: www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0xoP6kJKb8&t=2011s They will still be grazing sheep, rather than cattle, on the land as they can easily graze between the solar panels, and they will also be rewilding. 

There is some similarity between some sites in N.Devon and S.Wales and IIRC you first mentioned Ripple Energies when they operated just wind farms. 

A quick look on Google Maps shows one smallish solar farm near Pyworthy already built but a quick google on 'Devon solar farms' and you'll see why locals are protesting against more of those being built near them:

Uproar intensifies over huge new solar farm for Devon
www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/uproar-intensifies-over-huge-new-7407506

WRT to sheep, then it is often the sheep farming that has damaged the soil* in the first place and IMO we need to eat a lot less red meat. Rewilding on a solar farm is the operators way of saying "solar only" and saving money by allowing weeds to grow in between the panels (not great if your farm is next door). 

There can be very localised micro climates that might mean some of the sites wouldn't be great for onshore wind farms and I appreciate most locals are NIMBY about those as well but in most cases a wind farm would generate more electricity (and better suit our seasonal needs for energy) and allow better use of the land beneath the wind farm - certainly lots of examples in N.Wales where the "white woolly maggots" (sheep) graze under wind farms, although I accept a lot of those places don't get much sun.

* The "hoofed locusts" (sheep) issue was discussed back on UKPR. A reminder piece:
Upland sheep grazing impacts biodiversity and will take decades to recover
www.countryside-jobs.com/article/2020-05-12-upland-sheep-grazing-impacts-biodiversity-and-will-take-decades-to-recover

[leftieliberal]

Apr 24, 2023 19:04:44 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Apr 24, 2023 18:05:31 GMT leftieliberal said:

Upland Devon is one example: this solar farm will be constructed near Pyworthy: www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0xoP6kJKb8&t=2011s They will still be grazing sheep, rather than cattle, on the land as they can easily graze between the solar panels, and they will also be rewilding. 

There is some similarity between some sites in N.Devon and S.Wales and IIRC you first mentioned Ripple Energies when they operated just wind farms. 

A quick look on Google Maps shows one smallish solar farm near Pyworthy already built but a quick google on 'Devon solar farms' and you'll see why locals are protesting against more of those being built near them:

Uproar intensifies over huge new solar farm for Devon
www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/uproar-intensifies-over-huge-new-7407506

That's from August last year and as I understand it, the CPRE lost their appeal over this site
 
WRT to sheep, then it is often the sheep farming that has damaged the soil* in the first place and IMO we need to eat a lot less red meat. Rewilding on a solar farm is the operators way of saying "solar only" and saving money by allowing weeds to grow in between the panels (not great if your farm is next door). 

Although sheep  is technically "red meat" it is much healthier (and less environmentally-damaging) than other "red meats" because it is grass-fed not grain-fed:  www.cafeevergreen.net/is-lamb-meat-a-healthier-red-meat/

There can be very localised micro climates that might mean some of the sites wouldn't be great for onshore wind farms and I appreciate most locals are NIMBY about those as well but in most cases a wind farm would generate more electricity (and better suit our seasonal needs for energy) and allow better use of the land beneath the wind farm - certainly lots of examples in N.Wales where the "white woolly maggots" (sheep) graze under wind farms, although I accept a lot of those places don't get much sun.

* The "hoofed locusts" (sheep) issue was discussed back on UKPR. A reminder piece:
Upland sheep grazing impacts biodiversity and will take decades to recover
www.countryside-jobs.com/article/2020-05-12-upland-sheep-grazing-impacts-biodiversity-and-will-take-decades-to-recover

Comments inline.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Britain joins wind power plan for turbine islands in North Sea


Britain and other European countries will launch a wind-power revolution today with a pledged tenfold increase in electricity generation by 2050 from massive turbine “islands” built at sea.

Grant Shapps, the energy secretary, will attend a meeting in Ostend for talks with Belgium, Germany, France, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark, Ireland and Luxembourg.

He will announce a plan for the world’s largest multi-use power line under the North Sea. The LionLink line, only the second of its kind in the world, will connect the UK and the Netherlands with offshore wind farms.

At the talks, energy ministers will agree to quadruple offshore wind power during the next five years, with plans to build the world’s largest network of new offshore wind farms generating electricity in the North Sea.

…

Belgium, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands, together with the UK, are planning to form a cluster of energy “islands” composed of huge wind farms, and Germany will begin pilot projects to produce hydrogen at offshore facilities using renewable energy.

Times

[Mr Poppy]

Apr 24, 2023 20:01:18 GMT leftieliberal said:

Apr 24, 2023 19:04:44 GMT Mr Poppy said:

There is some similarity between some sites in N.Devon and S.Wales and IIRC you first mentioned Ripple Energies when they operated just wind farms. 

A quick look on Google Maps shows one smallish solar farm near Pyworthy already built but a quick google on 'Devon solar farms' and you'll see why locals are protesting against more of those being built near them:

Uproar intensifies over huge new solar farm for Devon
www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/uproar-intensifies-over-huge-new-7407506

1. That's from August last year and as I understand it, the CPRE lost their appeal over this site
 
WRT to sheep, then it is often the sheep farming that has damaged the soil* in the first place and IMO we need to eat a lot less red meat. Rewilding on a solar farm is the operators way of saying "solar only" and saving money by allowing weeds to grow in between the panels (not great if your farm is next door). 

2. Although sheep  is technically "red meat" it is much healthier (and less environmentally-damaging) than other "red meats" because it is grass-fed not grain-fed:  www.cafeevergreen.net/is-lamb-meat-a-healthier-red-meat/

There can be very localised micro climates that might mean some of the sites wouldn't be great for onshore wind farms and I appreciate most locals are NIMBY about those as well but in most cases a wind farm would generate more electricity (and better suit our seasonal needs for energy) and allow better use of the land beneath the wind farm - certainly lots of examples in N.Wales where the "white woolly maggots" (sheep) graze under wind farms, although I accept a lot of those places don't get much sun.

* The "hoofed locusts" (sheep) issue was discussed back on UKPR. A reminder piece:
Upland sheep grazing impacts biodiversity and will take decades to recover
www.countryside-jobs.com/article/2020-05-12-upland-sheep-grazing-impacts-biodiversity-and-will-take-decades-to-recover

Comments inline.

1. The "Uproar" article covered the reasons why most future sites should not get permission (ie bad use of the land). However, yes, it does look like the Derrill Water project is going ahead. Lots of other solar projects have been given the go ahead in the past as well - in part due to the effective ban on onshore wind farms (which in most cases would have been better use of the land than solar farms).

2. Happy to agree that cows (beef) are even worse than sheep for both the human eating them (your link) and the environment (the point I was making). Happy to go into a tangent of better protein sources for both the individual and the environment. 

NB I'm not totally anti-Solar or anti-red meat. I would very much like to see solar (with batteries, so mostly 'off-grid') installed on buildings and 'brownfield sites' and "a lot less red meat" does not mean zero.      

[Mr Poppy]

Apr 24, 2023 21:29:27 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Britain joins wind power plan for turbine islands in North Sea


Britain and other European countries will launch a wind-power revolution today with a pledged tenfold increase in electricity generation by 2050 from massive turbine “islands” built at sea.

Grant Shapps, the energy secretary, will attend a meeting in Ostend for talks with Belgium, Germany, France, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark, Ireland and Luxembourg.

He will announce a plan for the world’s largest multi-use power line under the North Sea. The LionLink line, only the second of its kind in the world, will connect the UK and the Netherlands with offshore wind farms.

At the talks, energy ministers will agree to quadruple offshore wind power during the next five years, with plans to build the world’s largest network of new offshore wind farms generating electricity in the North Sea.

…

Belgium, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands, together with the UK, are planning to form a cluster of energy “islands” composed of huge wind farms, and Germany will begin pilot projects to produce hydrogen at offshore facilities using renewable energy.

Times

Just to be clear on the specific 'LionLink' then:

"LionLink will connect the Dutch and UK grid via subsea cables, which will connect to a Dutch offshore wind farm via an offshore converter platform"
www.tennet.eu/lionlink

I'm not going through the maps of the Southern N.Sea again but for some reason the "Dutch offshore wind farm" detail seems to have been dropped by NG and HMG in their info for UK press. 'LionLink' could also be used for stuff like UK importing more coal generated electricity indirectly from Germany (via Netherlands and LionLink) - as has already been happening via existing interconnectors (see previous links of NG's monthly updates showing UK isn't burning much coal but is importing a lot of electricity - then see German data that shows they are burning a lot of coal and exporting a lot of electricity (via 'transit countries' and hence indirectly to UK).

The shared security aspect was IMO the more useful part of the agreement. See: "North Sea Nations to Work On Infrastructure Security Pact"
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-24/north-sea-nations-to-work-on-security-pact-for-infrastructure?

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Apr 25, 2023 8:17:15 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Apr 24, 2023 21:29:27 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Britain joins wind power plan for turbine islands in North Sea


Britain and other European countries will launch a wind-power revolution today with a pledged tenfold increase in electricity generation by 2050 from massive turbine “islands” built at sea.

Grant Shapps, the energy secretary, will attend a meeting in Ostend for talks with Belgium, Germany, France, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark, Ireland and Luxembourg.

He will announce a plan for the world’s largest multi-use power line under the North Sea. The LionLink line, only the second of its kind in the world, will connect the UK and the Netherlands with offshore wind farms.

At the talks, energy ministers will agree to quadruple offshore wind power during the next five years, with plans to build the world’s largest network of new offshore wind farms generating electricity in the North Sea.

…

Belgium, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands, together with the UK, are planning to form a cluster of energy “islands” composed of huge wind farms, and Germany will begin pilot projects to produce hydrogen at offshore facilities using renewable energy.

Times

Just to be clear on the specific 'LionLink' then:

"LionLink will connect the Dutch and UK grid via subsea cables, which will connect to a Dutch offshore wind farm via an offshore converter platform"
www.tennet.eu/lionlink

I'm not going through the maps of the Southern N.Sea again but for some reason the "Dutch offshore wind farm" detail seems to have been dropped by NG and HMG in their info for UK press. 'LionLink' could also be used for stuff like UK importing more coal generated electricity indirectly from Germany (via Netherlands and LionLink) - as has already been happening via existing interconnectors (see previous links of NG's monthly updates showing UK isn't burning much coal but is importing a lot of electricity - then see German data that shows they are burning a lot of coal and exporting a lot of electricity (via 'transit countries' and hence indirectly to UK).

The shared security aspect was IMO the more useful part of the agreement. See: "North Sea Nations to Work On Infrastructure Security Pact"
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-24/north-sea-nations-to-work-on-security-pact-for-infrastructure?

A bit more on the LionLink was mentioned in the article but I don’t like to post whole articles and was focusing on what seemed, to me at least, to be the new bit about the wind turbine islands. (Or at least it’s new that we are joining in, but wasn’t aware of the island plan at all before now). 

“Rob Jetten, the Dutch energy minister, said: “LionLink provides close to 2 gigawatts of electricity to both countries, enough to power two million households . . . this new connection further boosts energy security and energy independence in Europe.””

[Mr Poppy]

Apr 25, 2023 16:49:59 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Apr 25, 2023 8:17:15 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Just to be clear on the specific 'LionLink' then:

"LionLink will connect the Dutch and UK grid via subsea cables, which will connect to a Dutch offshore wind farm via an offshore converter platform"
www.tennet.eu/lionlink

I'm not going through the maps of the Southern N.Sea again but for some reason the "Dutch offshore wind farm" detail seems to have been dropped by NG and HMG in their info for UK press. 'LionLink' could also be used for stuff like UK importing more coal generated electricity indirectly from Germany (via Netherlands and LionLink) - as has already been happening via existing interconnectors (see previous links of NG's monthly updates showing UK isn't burning much coal but is importing a lot of electricity - then see German data that shows they are burning a lot of coal and exporting a lot of electricity (via 'transit countries' and hence indirectly to UK).

The shared security aspect was IMO the more useful part of the agreement. See: "North Sea Nations to Work On Infrastructure Security Pact"
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-24/north-sea-nations-to-work-on-security-pact-for-infrastructure?

A bit more on the LionLink was mentioned in the article but I don’t like to post whole articles and was focusing on what seemed, to me at least, to be the new bit about the wind turbine islands. (Or at least it’s new that we are joining in, but wasn’t aware of the island plan at all before now). 

“Rob Jetten, the Dutch energy minister, said: “LionLink provides close to 2 gigawatts of electricity to both countries, enough to power two million households . . . this new connection further boosts energy security and energy independence in Europe.””

The 'islands' concept is not new. Not exactly sure who was first (pretty sure it was Denmark in their bit of the Southern N.Sea). Getting all the countries in one place to restate their individual plans as a 'group plan' raises lots of concerns for me. I'm no fan of Shapps who is reheating mostly* old news and missing out important details.

Independence being different to interdependence. Noting UK's historic 'dither+delay' approach that has made UK dependent, not independent. 

* As stated then the joint security pact is useful but all of the countries in the N.Sea bit are in NATO so any 'attack' should be covered under Article 5 of NATO. Obviously some room for 'interpretation' of what would constitute a breach of Article 5 so a bit of 'belt and braces' is OK - provided UK isn't then expected to be doing the Lion's share of the security while being the patsy on importing more electricity, not necessarily 'green' electricity, from mainland Europe (via the inteconnectors) or giving the 'value add' stuff like green hydrogen production away cheap. By all means call me a cynic and/or nativist. 

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Apr 25, 2023 20:51:31 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Apr 25, 2023 16:49:59 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

A bit more on the LionLink was mentioned in the article but I don’t like to post whole articles and was focusing on what seemed, to me at least, to be the new bit about the wind turbine islands. (Or at least it’s new that we are joining in, but wasn’t aware of the island plan at all before now). 

“Rob Jetten, the Dutch energy minister, said: “LionLink provides close to 2 gigawatts of electricity to both countries, enough to power two million households . . . this new connection further boosts energy security and energy independence in Europe.””

The 'islands' concept is not new. 

Yes, the newer bit is us joining in…

[Mr Poppy]

Apr 26, 2023 17:51:24 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Apr 25, 2023 20:51:31 GMT Mr Poppy said:

The 'islands' concept is not new. 

Yes, the newer bit is us joining in…

The 'islands' will not be joint sovereignty. They will "belong"* to whichever country's EEZ they are built on (note where I showed the "Dutch" element that Shapps conveniently left out of the UK press info)

* Possibly not the ideal word to use but will be relevant to taxation, etc. The infrastructure will "belong" to whoever builds/operates it and that varies by country+project. As usual then you'll find NG are involved in the JV of the interconnector aspect.

See: "National Grid Lion Link Limited: Shareholders: National Grid Interconnector Holdings Limited 100%"
pomanda.com/company/14722364/national-grid-lion-link-limited

[leftieliberal]

Thirteen years of Tory dilatoriness www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/08/uk-green-energy-projects-in-limbo-as-grid-struggles-to-keep-pace

The UK has the longest queue to connect to the electricity grid of any country in Europe. There are about 200 gigawatts worth of electricity projects waiting for a grid connection, according to research by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, or enough to power 150m UK homes.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Apr 26, 2023 18:00:12 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Apr 26, 2023 17:51:24 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Yes, the newer bit is us joining in…

The 'islands' will not be joint sovereignty.

Didn’t suggest they were of course. Is there a particular reason you mention it?

[Mr Poppy]

Painfully slow process (that started back in 2020) and yet more consultation 😴 so I'll keep the bunting on hold until they actually do something and sort out the "intermittency" issues by either changing the current CfD approach (supply side) and/or "encourage" smarter consumption (demand side):

Consultation underway on lower energy bills for communities hosting onshore wind farms
www.edie.net/consultation-underway-on-lower-energy-bills-for-communities-hosting-onshore-wind-farms/

PS Of note WRT to housing then "bunging locals" with a slice of the profits of private sector going towards local stuff is a very simple but quite effective approach. #nobrainer to hence apply a similar approach to new housing (eg a Land Value Uplift Tax that "locals" via their LA can decide is spent on a/ better buses/public transport, b/ building more schools/hospitals/etc, c/ roads/fixing potholes, d/ reducing council tax, etc.). The way to tackle NIMBYism is to provide some "quid (££) pro quo" from those making ££ from housing/wind farms/etc)

[leftieliberal]

Companies now starting to realise the benefits of putting solar panels above their car parks: www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65626371

"But the steel supports required for many solar canopies do add to the cost. It is often cheaper to simply put solar panels on the roof of large buildings, such as supermarkets. Mr Evans estimates that rooftop solar yields electricity at about 9p per kWh currently, versus 14p or 15p per kWh from panels in car parks."

Still, 14-15p/kWh is well under the cost per unit for electricity, even after it falls below the Government cap.

[Mr Poppy]

May 23, 2023 11:49:18 GMT leftieliberal said:

Companies now starting to realise the benefits of putting solar panels above their car parks: www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65626371

"But the steel supports required for many solar canopies do add to the cost. It is often cheaper to simply put solar panels on the roof of large buildings, such as supermarkets. Mr Evans estimates that rooftop solar yields electricity at about 9p per kWh currently, versus 14p or 15p per kWh from panels in car parks."

Still, 14-15p/kWh is well under the cost per unit for electricity, even after it falls below the Government cap.

Rooftop is the priority IMO (and note discussion on main thread from the other day about how car parks could be underground and the brownfield 'land' used for housing). Anyway, I'll translate this piece from the article as it relates to costs that are being ignored in the 14-15p/kWh numbers

""I've just had a megawatt car park, beautiful car park, for a factory turned down because it can't get a grid connection," says Mr Chilvers (business development manager at SIG, the firm that supplied the solar canopies)

Ignored costs bit is probably that they aren't installing batteries for when they occasionally (sunny days in Summer) produce excess lecky and need to dump it somewhere. The days of 'dumping' excess lecky onto the grid for brief periods on sunny days when the grid doesn't need it are over and hence anyone occasionally producing more lecky than they need has to deal with that themselves "off-grid" (as anyone installing solar on their own home would nowadays). The batteries could be "free EV charging when it's sunny*" which would be an incentive for workers to buy EVs, or commercial battery units. 

If the factory that was turned down wants to factor the costs of batteries in then they don't need to dump excess lecky onto the grid and hence don't need a grid connection - but it will add to the upfront cost.

The project might still be viable but that is for the business development manager of a solar canopy company to factor in when pitching his business to car park owners as he should be very aware of the 'no dumping' of unreliable and unpredictable MWs of lecky issue for grid connections. 

* No need to tell folks they wouldn't get a free charge in the Winter or on cloudy days but the EV chargers could easily have 'variable' pricing. Some places already do this to some extent and 'word spreads' (eg some folks might lend their EV to a friend on sunny days to get a cheap charge from their friends workplace.. so I hear   )

[Mr Poppy]

Good news: 1,000km range batteries coming to some cars soon
Bad news: Decreases the incentive to buy a much lower range EV now (and the new tech is Chinese - although some folks don't seem to be so worried about that as others)

technode.com/2023/05/19/volkswagen-backed-gotion-unveils-new-ev-battery-allowing-1000-km-range/
www.independent.co.uk/tech/electric-car-battery-life-record-b2345504.html

[alec]

leftieliberal - Interesting discussion on car park PV. Been a long time coming, and, as ever, UK behind the curve, but good to see some progress. While rooftop is cheaper in ideal circumstances, the number of perfectly orientated roofs are limited, whereas in car park systems you can achieve an ideal pitch and orientation to maximise efficiency. They also work to cool surfaces at ground level, something that will become increasingly important in future as global heating bites. Car parks are terrible for creating very hot conditions, particularly in night time 'heat island' conditions, so there is a double benefit of canopy style PV arrays.

I wasn't sure what Trevor meant with this though - "The days of 'dumping' excess lecky onto the grid for brief periods on sunny days when the grid doesn't need it are over and hence anyone occasionally producing more lecky than they need has to deal with that themselves "off-grid"..."

If you have secured a grid connection, then you are legally entitled to export that capacity onto the grid, so I'm not sure if Trevor is making a point about economics here, but it reads as if he thinks there is a technical issue - which there isn't, once you have the connection.

On the battery issue, it's still far from a given that PV + batteries are more cost effective than PV + sales to the grid in excess periods. Batteries are still expensive, compared to the PV system, and in general, at current prices you would do better with a simple PV system on a PPA for the excess than bother with batteries for the excess, unless you are going large scale and gaining additional income from entering the grid balancing market. But that needs scale to be cost effective.

[Mr Poppy]

Not sure if there is any data but grid connection is also an issue for the 'demand' side. A very enjoyable round of golf covered a lot of anecdotes from a golf buddy of an increasing % of heat pump applications being refused (although they still have more work than they cope with.. although on POETS day when the sun is shining then someone's project had to take a minor 🏌️‍♀️  🍻  pause    )

Background piece:
DNO PERMISSION FOR HEAT PUMPS
www.altoenergy.co.uk/blog/dno-permission-for-heat-pumps

Of note then if you have any solar, even with a battery, then it will rightly be assumed to be 'zero' help in calculating the size of heat pumps you need (and they do the same for wind, although not many suppliers offer wind anyway). They also ignore wood burners (which I appreciate some people hate) but wood burners do take the edge of things on the coldest days. The other way to get a smaller solution (ie lower the requested demand in a DNO application) is to accept lower temperatures - although that might then come up if/when you try to sell your house and most installers won't suggest you do that (not on first application anyway).  

Whilst it won't apply everywhere and future grid upgrades will allow people currently being refused by their DNO to 'hook up' then in the short-term the below article covers the sadly obvious solution: stick with oil* boilers. Although even if you can't get DNO permission for a heat pump then folks should still improve insulation and seek to install a more efficient oil burner if they have an old inefficient one - "less carbon" isn't as good as "zero carbon" but still better than lots of carbon. 

The village where net zero won’t work – and why it’s not alone
www.telegraph.co.uk/bills-and-utilities/gas-electric/rural-communities-net-zero-oil-burners-heat-pumps/

* Note an "unfortunate" (for heat pump v oil boiler) consequence of lower oil prices is lower heating oil price tips the maths in favour of oil again. Change the time to 4yrs (max) in attached and folks can see the price has dropped massively, although still not quite back to pre-Covid levels then getting very close. Some folks like to use the Covid lows for comparison but those were unusual times. 50p-ish seems to be what I remember from back in day and the chart confirms that. Big drop from about £1 this time last year

Average Home Heating Oil Prices for England
www.boilerjuice.com/heating-oil-prices-england/

[alec]

@trevor - it's been a longstanding issue with heat pumps, tbh, especially in more remote areas towards the end of supply lines, as these are often where the worst grid capacity issues can be found. (Not always though). A substantial part of this is as with the water companies; private sector organisations running the regional and national grids for profit generation, failing to invest in a timely manner for the future needs of the country. The scale of the schedule for grid upgrades is painfully thin, and you often have to wait for a big storm to knock out lines before they do an emergency replacement and upgrade, and even then they often don't substantially change the capacity.

On heat pumps specifically, one handy option is to go for a hybrid system, with a smaller capacity heat pump and accumulator tank that covers much of the heating needs, working with the existing boiler which kicks in at periods of high demand. This means you can run the heating at a lower temp in shoulder periods, maximising the heat pump efficiency, but still have access to higher temps when needed. Does need a bit more space though, although not too much more for domestic scale systems.

[Mr Poppy]

May 23, 2023 16:47:24 GMT Mr Poppy said:

May 23, 2023 11:49:18 GMT leftieliberal said:

Companies now starting to realise the benefits of putting solar panels above their car parks: www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65626371

"But the steel supports required for many solar canopies do add to the cost. It is often cheaper to simply put solar panels on the roof of large buildings, such as supermarkets. Mr Evans estimates that rooftop solar yields electricity at about 9p per kWh currently, versus 14p or 15p per kWh from panels in car parks."

Still, 14-15p/kWh is well under the cost per unit for electricity, even after it falls below the Government cap.

Rooftop is the priority IMO (and note discussion on main thread from the other day about how car parks could be underground and the brownfield 'land' used for housing). Anyway, I'll translate this piece from the article as it relates to costs that are being ignored in the 14-15p/kWh numbers

""I've just had a megawatt car park, beautiful car park, for a factory turned down because it can't get a grid connection," says Mr Chilvers (business development manager at SIG, the firm that supplied the solar canopies)

Ignored costs bit is probably that they aren't installing batteries for when they occasionally (sunny days in Summer) produce excess lecky and need to dump it somewhere. The days of 'dumping' excess lecky onto the grid for brief periods on sunny days when the grid doesn't need it are over and hence anyone occasionally producing more lecky than they need has to deal with that themselves "off-grid" (as anyone installing solar on their own home would nowadays). The batteries could be "free EV charging when it's sunny*" which would be an incentive for workers to buy EVs, or commercial battery units. 

If the factory that was turned down wants to factor the costs of batteries in then they don't need to dump excess lecky onto the grid and hence don't need a grid connection - but it will add to the upfront cost.

The project might still be viable but that is for the business development manager of a solar canopy company to factor in when pitching his business to car park owners as he should be very aware of the 'no dumping' of unreliable and unpredictable MWs of lecky issue for grid connections. 

* No need to tell folks they wouldn't get a free charge in the Winter or on cloudy days but the EV chargers could easily have 'variable' pricing. Some places already do this to some extent and 'word spreads' (eg some folks might lend their EV to a friend on sunny days to get a cheap charge from their friends workplace.. so I hear   )

Given it is a sunny weekend day then the an additional cost (or at least more obvious way to see it) in a Mon-Fri factory occurs at the weekend. Mr Guy Chilvers is not part of the Trevors Collective so not for me to suggest how he runs his business but for the factory considering solar (lots of companies can help with that) then a quick, crude way to look at 'additional cost' if you can't dump* your excess lecky is to write-off the stuff you can't use.

In many cases the project would first of all be scaled back (eg just installed on rooftops) to ensure that the max solar output doesn't cause a problem - but you'd then lose economies of scale so the cost would probably go up.

However, for a Mon-Fri factory then unless you set-up EV battery charging for use at weekend or similar then you'd need to factor in 2/7ths of your output going to waste. Taking the 14p number for 5 instead of 7days means the true cost would be 20p.

The project might still be viable and if Guy Chilvers company doesn't want the contract then simples advice - try someone else (but be realistic about what is possible and how you can get around some of the problems). I personally like the additions of batteries** and EV charging - a solution that has certainly worked for some projects, although a mostly automated agri-food factory does run at the weekends so those factories don't have the Mon-Fri problem (and machines don't play golf) 

* en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dumping_(pricing_policy)

** Batteries to store lecky over lunch breaks (often very close to the likely timing of peak daily solar) is another 'avoidable' problem if a factory shuts down for a lunch break and the unions aren't willing to see the Green side of things. Does add a bit to the cost but the smoothing role of batteries is something most realistic projects would need to consider (although for a 'click bait' story then it's probably going to send most people to  😴 if you get too into the details and practicalities. 

[johntel]

Petrol is down to £1.38 in my neck of the woods this week.

[Mr Poppy]

May 27, 2023 17:15:23 GMT johntel said:

Petrol is down to £1.38 in my neck of the woods this week.

The mighty Mole Valley looks like it is below the national average* but the 'feather' pricing is finally falling and reflecting the big drop in crude oil prices from the last few months. 

Whilst good news for motorists, haulage companies**, etc and I appreciate 'inflation'/Cost of Living is the #1 evil to solve at the moment then the drop in forecourt prices was 'foreseeable' when Hunt did his budget and froze fuel duty. So I'll once again state it was a missed opportunity not to raise fuel duty at the budget 🤦‍♂️. £6bn/yr of 'opportunity cost' when prices were set to come down anyway 

It will now be much harder to break with the 'norm' and allow fuel duty to increase in future budgets. I'm not predicting exactly where crude oil price goes to in the future but down at mid-70c (Brent crude) then I doubt it will go down much more. As noted t'other day then at these levels the price incentive to shift to renewables is much lower so I don't want to see the price drop much further. 

tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

PS Since I mentioned tax revenue then I should repost Starmer's 🤦‍♂️ about 'Just Stop Oil (and Gas)' on the Issue Specific thread. Whilst some folks think Shell, BP, etc should pay much more tax (and I'd hit them 'downstream' at the pump, not in the N.Sea) then I'd rather British jobs+taxes for British workers than buying even more imported LNG from places like Qatar 

Labour ‘would block new North Sea oil and gas developments’
www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-would-ban-north-sea-oil-and-gas-development-keir-starmer-energy-scotland-tories-b1084204.html

* Probably beaten only by places like Costco at 136.9p
localprices.co.uk/costco-thurrock-automat?

RAC Fuel Watch has a reporting 'lag' but note for diesel then the profit margin is still way above average so prices should drop further soon and CON HMG should be doing more to ensure the feather falls faster now and in the future.
www.rac.co.uk/drive/advice/fuel-watch/

** Where targeted help and/or incentives to reduce consumption could be used. 

[leftieliberal]

An interesting graph showing the trend of CO2 emissions in the USA (IRA is the Inflation Reduction Act). So not quite reaching the Paris climate targets, but as long as the Republicans don't get back in at least going in the right direction.

[Mr Poppy]

The vaccine taskforce was a success as it was allowed to run with a small team, led by a genuine and 'impartial'* expert. It was IMO a good model to use for ssssoooo many urgent issues but with Shapps's "in charge" of Energy Security and Net Zero and the list of the biased/'blob' panel you 🤦‍♂️

EG: "The Taskforce also discussed plans to.. publish a solar roadmap in 2024"

FFS, "get on with it"**. Whilst solar is not IMO as a great a solution for UK as lots of other countries then it is part of the solution (provided we also get on with 'storage', notably inter-seasonal). A roadmap.. maybe next year.. WTF!! There are lots of issues with solar but "I find the lack of urgency disturbing". Certainly increased urgency is one area where LAB can do a lot, lot better than the 'dither+delay' of CON HMG. 

* OK Kate Bingham was married to a CON MP but IMO that didn't make a difference. 

** Weekly(ish) check of Shapps 'to do' list has some dodgy propaganda and recycled 'old' news but still no news on who/where is getting the new-new nuclear that we urgently need to start building or anything actually 'new'(s) or 'sped up'. 🤦‍♂️ 

[leftieliberal]

Interesting article in The Guardian by Rowan Atkinson: www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/03/electric-vehicles-early-adopter-petrol-car-ev-environment-rowan-atkinson

I didn't know that he had two degrees in Engineering, before he turned to comedy

"My first university degree was in electrical and electronic engineering, with a subsequent master’s in control systems. Combine this, perhaps surprising, academic pathway with a lifelong passion for the motorcar, and you can see why I was drawn into an early adoption of electric vehicles."

He ends with: "Friends with an environmental conscience often ask me, as a car person, whether they should buy an electric car. I tend to say that if their car is an old diesel and they do a lot of city centre motoring, they should consider a change. But otherwise, hold fire for now. Electric propulsion will be of real, global environmental benefit one day, but that day has yet to dawn."

[leftieliberal]

Recycling old solar panels: www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65602519