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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2024 11:52:26 GMT
6. The Conservative candidate is a lady who is the opposite of the previous incumbent. She was clearly passionate about social issues, green issues and animal rights and has an unarguable record of involvement and making an impact. Because so much the emphasis was on local issues she escaped lightly on criticism of the Tory record in office. Could it be possible that when there is a very unpopular government, incumbency bonus is reversed and voters are actually more likely to support a new candidate replacing the old one (even though both are representing the aforementioned unpopular ruling party) because they have no blood on their hands? |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 2, 2024 11:53:34 GMT
Mark - I'd go for a separate polling night thread. Much easier for archive searching in the future. Me too. Will help if any others of a like mind just repeat the above. I think “likes” will tend to get lost Me too. |
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Post by robbiealive on Jul 2, 2024 12:01:16 GMT
Hustings report - the mood in Surrey. Yesterday evening I attended hustings for Dorking & Horley (Con majority 12,000, Lib Dem 2nd, Labour nowhere), held at our local church. It was well attended (~ 250) despite there being no publicity until the day before the event. Apparently the local churches were supposed to be doing it but the Residents Association had to step in to organise it at the last minute. My main interest, apart from seeing the candidates in the flesh, was to check out the support for Reform. All the main parties’ candidates turned up. The format was a 5 minute slot for each candidate to introduce themselves and then questions submitted in advance from the audience with a couple of minutes allocated for each candidate to answer. The time limit was policed meticulously. The questions were: How will you ensure that womens’ rights are not lost to trans rights and women’s safe spaces are preserved? What are you going to do to get more homes built? What are you going to do to stop building on the green belt? What should the limit on net immigration be? What will you do to achieve net zero? Would you personally like the UK to rejoin the EU within the next 10 years? (My question) What would you do to stop our rivers (i.e. the River Mole) being polluted? What will you do to improve teacher morale? What will you do to improve social care and the NHS (esp. mental health)? The candidates’ answers toed the party lines pretty much as expected so I will just make a few specific observations: 1. The womens/trans issue was really toxic. One man in the audience stood up and claimed that there are hardly any trans people in Surrey - he stood up and asked ‘are there any trans people here in the audience?’ At which point a woman stood up and said ‘Yes, my wife, sitting next to me is trans’. If looks could kill! 2. The Lib Dems control the local council and are therefore responsible for Planning. The Local Plan they are supporting involves some building on the green belt - this is deeply unpopular and he got a lot of stick for it. The other candidates all went on about there being lots of brown field sites to build on, including council-owned land, which is just not true. The Labour candidate was the only one that could say anything concrete - that they will prioritise changes to Planning laws. 3. The Green candidate brought every single question back to climate change and waffled a lot. 4. The Reform candidate looked exactly the part - an angry middle-aged man, who blamed all the problems on immigration. He had some supporters in the hall, who were very vocal, though the Lib Dem and Conservative got the most applause. 5. The Lib Dem candidate is local and has a good back story, being initially turned down for the army, fighting illness, becoming a reservist and eventually serving in Afghanistan. Unfortunately he waffled a lot and was not a very convincing speaker.
6. The Conservative candidate is a lady who is the opposite of the previous incumbent. She was clearly passionate about social issues, green issues and animal rights and has an unarguable record of involvement and making an impact. Because so much the emphasis was on local issues she escaped lightly on criticism of the Tory record in office. 7. The Labour candidate (a young lady) impressed me a lot, and a lot of other people too I think including my wife. She was engaging, a strong, succinct and clear speaker, with a good local background (though currently based in London) and strong ‘presence’. She currently works as a mediator for a big Consultancy. She has no chance here, but I suspect may go on to greater things. Conclusion: Reform will take enough votes off Con to put the nails in their coffin and guarantee a Lib Dem gain here. I think the Lab, Lib Dem and Tory candidates would all make good constituency MPs, so I was quite impressed really. Thanks. That was great. The Tory candidate seems to in the wrong party, or was she plauying to the gallery. |
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Post by lens on Jul 2, 2024 12:09:09 GMT
Interesting discussion on the Today programme about our declining birth rate First it's just not in the UK, but across the world, even in what many people would call poorer countries The stat that stood out for me is that we used to have 4 workers supporting one pensioner. Now that's dropped to just over 3 supporting one pensioner. Bearing in mind that's with the record levels of immigration we've had in the last few years But worse with current reproduction rates that will drop to two. It could be even worse than that as the birth rate is accelerating....... Fully agree with what alec has already posted. An interesting statistic..... but so what? A ship used to need a huge crew (especially in the days of sail) - now its only a fraction. Same in industry after industry. Internet etc banking has meant you only now need a fraction of the staff in branches. And define "a pensioner"? Someone over pension age, yes, but advances in health care haven't just meant people are living longer, the average is enjoying decent health much longer into older years. "A pensioner" implies someone needing care - it may equally imply a grandparent of 75 providing childcare so their son/daughter can go to work. And this healthier old age also means more possibility of working a few years longer, whilst still enjoying more years of retirement than someone a few decades ago retiring younger. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 2, 2024 12:09:34 GMT
A questionnaire seeking to determine how closely your views align with any party - frequently sneered at, but people love to complete!
(It does, however, seem to be contributing to serious academic research on political attitudes)
Unsurprisingly, it suggests that I am 68% in agreement with SGP, 64% with SNP, 54% with LD, 43% with Alba and only 27% with Lab.
It suggests that I am 69% in agreement with the Greens, 52% with Lib Dems, 36% with Labour, -37% with the Tories and -39% with Reform. On the 2-D graph I am almost exactly equidistant between the Greens and Lib Dems, being to the left of Lib Dems (which I know), but to the right of the Greens. |
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 2, 2024 12:11:58 GMT
From the G: "Green party on course to win in Bristol Central, poll suggests The Green party has released a poll showing it has a eight-point lead in the newly formed constituency of Bristol Central where co-leader Carla Denyer is challenging Thangam Debbonaire, a potential cabinet member for Labour. An independent survey for the party by the pollsters WeThink suggest the Greens are on course to take 40% of the vote, compared to 32% for Labour. However, the poll also shows 18% of respondents “don’t know” which way they will vote." Unlike this solid scientific evidence, my gut has been telling me that the race for Bristol Central is closer than it was. The intervention of Ed Milliband in an article in the Guardian yesterday could persuade some waverers to stick with Labour. I genuinely think that the result will be very close and maybe has tilted backtowards Thangham over the last week. Eitherway I think it will be one of the highest turnouts in the country and a late result because of recount(s) possible. |
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Post by peterbell on Jul 2, 2024 12:22:29 GMT
Mark - I'd go for a separate polling night thread. Much easier for archive searching in the future. Me too. Will help if any others of a like mind just repeat the above. I think “likes” will tend to get lost I would also prefer a separate polling night thread. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 2, 2024 12:23:08 GMT
Rishi Sunak "This election is not a referendum on the past"
Well...that's sort of the point of elections, people get to pass their verdict on the Government's record
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 2, 2024 12:34:13 GMT
A questionnaire seeking to determine how closely your views align with any party - frequently sneered at, but people love to complete!
(It does, however, seem to be contributing to serious academic research on political attitudes)
Unsurprisingly, it suggests that I am 68% in agreement with SGP, 64% with SNP, 54% with LD, 43% with Alba and only 27% with Lab.
It suggests that I am 69% in agreement with the Greens, 52% with Lib Dems, 36% with Labour, -37% with the Tories and -39% with Reform. On the 2-D graph I am almost exactly equidistant between the Greens and Lib Dems, being to the left of Lib Dems (which I know), but to the right of the Greens. I think the questions have a slight bias that will mean a lot of committed LoC people will find themselves agreeing most with the Greens. The questions are asked as to what you would like to happen. So it you ask me would I like to instantly rejoin the EU, immediately end the use of fossil fuels and levy heavy taxation on the super-rich I'm going to say yes. But do I think those things are practically possible or you could win an election advocating them? - then the answer would be no. There is a real world gap between what I want and what is realistically achievable. The Greens don't have to worry about that gap. They can happily offer the left-winger's dream manifesto, knowing they won't have to try to implement it (the same goes for Reform at the other end of the spectrum). Therefore asking a LoC activist what they would like to happen is always go to favour the Greens. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 2, 2024 12:57:23 GMT
In case anyone is interested in how J.L. Partners stacked regression and poststratification (SRP) model differs from multi-level regression and poststratification models, the academic paper on which it is based is here. I shall just wait until July 5th and see whether their prediction is better than MRP. |
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Post by peterbell on Jul 2, 2024 13:02:06 GMT
A questionnaire seeking to determine how closely your views align with any party - frequently sneered at, but people love to complete!
(It does, however, seem to be contributing to serious academic research on political attitudes)
Unsurprisingly, it suggests that I am 68% in agreement with SGP, 64% with SNP, 54% with LD, 43% with Alba and only 27% with Lab.
For me - Green +70%, Lib Dem +45%, Labour +40%, Reform -37%, Con -41%. I suspect Lib Dems narrowly beat Labour because of Europe and Reform rank higher than Con because RefUK support proportional representation. For me Green 53; LD 44; Lab 41; Reform -24; Con -26 I would slightly question the accuracy (completeness) of the questionaire. Personally, based on current manifestos (as far as I am aware of them), I am less in agreement with Green policies than LD and Lab. I have concern re some of the Green economic policies - another Truss situation. In addition, Reform should be lower than Con. Although I would never vote Con, I am revulsed by Reform. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 2, 2024 13:09:26 GMT
Interesting poll, people were asked how they'd vote on Thursday if the party leaders were as they were in 2019. The results are a Conservative lead of 6 points over the Labour Party x.com/LukeTryl/status/1808124302874620219'Suggests to two things 1) Starmer is clearly more than just a lucky general benefitting from Tory mistakes, the changing of the Labour brand has mattered 2) Boris Johnson probably could have capped the Reform vote down, but not eliminated it.' |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 2, 2024 13:10:02 GMT
In addition to the insanity of making Trump a king the U.S. supreme court has assumed huge additional powers for themselves designed to undermine democratic presidents.
While they have stated that a president has absolute immunity for " official " acts what amounts to an official act is for the supreme court to define.
Consequently Donald Trump locking up or assassinating his political rivals could be considered an official presidential act and therefore effectively not a crime but if Joe Biden carried out the most minor infringement if the SC decided that presidential immunity didn't apply he could be prosecuted.
There's never been an occasion where a president was likely to be criminally prosecuted for his actions in office in over 240 years , other than Trump.
There's only one purpose in this legislation it's to allow Trump to be a dictator.
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Post by shevii on Jul 2, 2024 13:11:55 GMT
From the G: "Green party on course to win in Bristol Central, poll suggests The Green party has released a poll showing it has a eight-point lead in the newly formed constituency of Bristol Central where co-leader Carla Denyer is challenging Thangam Debbonaire, a potential cabinet member for Labour. An independent survey for the party by the pollsters WeThink suggest the Greens are on course to take 40% of the vote, compared to 32% for Labour. However, the poll also shows 18% of respondents “don’t know” which way they will vote." My gut feeling is that the Greens aren't super confident about any of the 4 seats. This could just be a tactic to get volunteers out to make sure or a certain level of uncertainty despite 3 of the 4 seats having proper constituency polls showing them ahead. By all accounts Labour are pumping a lot of resources into Bristol and Brighton as well. They also have a lot of different factors in play as to how the other parties split and in their two Tory targets a certain reliance on a good Reform vote. I'm hoping for 4, happy for 3 but not ruling out ending up with zero. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 2, 2024 13:20:20 GMT
Interesting poll, people were asked how they'd vote on Thursday if the party leaders were as they were in 2019. The results are a Conservative lead of 6 points over the Labour Party x.com/LukeTryl/status/1808124302874620219'Suggests to two things 1) Starmer is clearly more than just a lucky general benefitting from Tory mistakes, the changing of the Labour brand has mattered 2) Boris Johnson probably could have capped the Reform vote down, but not eliminated it.' Interesting that other than Brexit/Reform (they are the same legal entity - The Brexit Party Ltd, trading as Reform UK) every party* has a different leader 5 years on - and even Farage took time off. *Con, Lab, LD, E&W Green, SNP, PC (and indeed DUP). |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 2, 2024 13:22:05 GMT
I'm aware in the Green target seat of North Herefordshire the lib-dems and Labour are not putting a lot of resources into it
Would be interesting if they could take it, personally even though they've been given a been clear run, I can't see them winning against the tory incumbent, who's known locally as 'Bungalow' Bill Wiggins (not the one who was Joan Collins previous beau) 😀
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 2, 2024 13:27:46 GMT
For the past week Sunak and his fellow tories have been banging on people need to vote Tory to prevent a Labour 'super majority', today he tells us a 'Hung parliament is in our grasp' Delusional x.com/Telegraph/status/1808085107175035371 |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 2, 2024 13:29:18 GMT
Interesting poll, people were asked how they'd vote on Thursday if the party leaders were as they were in 2019. The results are a Conservative lead of 6 points over the Labour Party x.com/LukeTryl/status/1808124302874620219'Suggests to two things 1) Starmer is clearly more than just a lucky general benefitting from Tory mistakes, the changing of the Labour brand has mattered 2) Boris Johnson probably could have capped the Reform vote down, but not eliminated it.' Just for the lols - putting that into EC gives you: Con 291, Lab 261, LD 58, SNP 15, PC 3, Green 2, Reform 2 Would our Jezza have been willing to offer Jo Swinson Proportional Representation? Would the PLP have let him? Hours of fun. |
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Post by shevii on Jul 2, 2024 13:31:05 GMT
"The stat that stood out for me is that we used to have 4 workers supporting one pensioner. Now that's dropped to just over 3 supporting one pensioner. Bearing in mind that's with the record levels of immigration we've had in the last few years" alec These are utterly pointless statistics (I mean, completely, totally and absolutely pointless) unless you add in the equivalent time series of productivity gains It was me that quoted those statistics, even if right that due to greater productivity we don't need so many workers (current problems with getting enough workers to fill jobs suggest otherwise) you are missing the elephant in the room. Namely the burden of paying for a growing pensioner population on a decreasing number of people, this isn't just the pension itself, which with the rachet effect of the triple lock means more people will get rising pension You also need to take account of the other costs of old age, health and care costs being the biggest thing. There will be some pensioners who will be net tax contributors, but most won't, when you take into account the extra services/benefits they get. In addition of course they get the tax break on not paying National insurance on any of their pension, private or state I'm not saying they shouldn't get all of the above, I am saying it will put an ever increasing burden on the working age population when we already have record levels of tax It's a big issue and to bury our heads in the sand and pretend it's not, isn't a solution If you're simply flagging up that there is a medium term issue here then you are right, but I don't think me or alec are burying our heads in the sand. The problems with funding come down to the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. I'm just outlying why the increased productivity already should be enough to cover our workforce needs were the productivity gains to filter down. It isn't because of the economic system. The actual people required to do the jobs are there and the job shortages are down to not valuing certain jobs like carers and plenty of jobs taken up with non essential stuff which could be done away with altogether but pay more. Huge amounts of money and workforce go into something like, say, cosmetics and especially the marketing of them when the world isn't any better a place because people have been convinced to buy a new type of smellie at ridiculous prices. Consumable clothing that can even be single use is another area of unproductive waste. Built in obsolescence on appliances, marketing the next i-phone, excessive selling of financial products. Just importing more people moves the problem on to the next generation and will be harder to fix and, if the world does sort itself out and population growth flattens and poorer countries pull themselves up then there won't be that supply available anyway. The solutions aren't easy (as you say) but they do exist. |
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Post by hireton on Jul 2, 2024 13:31:43 GMT
If the extracts of his Times interview are correct, Starmer seems to want the Labour Party to amend the Equality Act to reduce transgender rights.
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Post by johntel on Jul 2, 2024 13:44:29 GMT
The questions were: How will you ensure that womens’ rights are not lost to trans rights and women’s safe spaces are preserved? What are you going to do to get more homes built? What are you going to do to stop building on the green belt? What should the limit on net immigration be? What will you do to achieve net zero? Would you personally like the UK to rejoin the EU within the next 10 years? (My question) What would you do to stop our rivers (i.e. the River Mole) being polluted? What will you do to improve teacher morale? What will you do to improve social care and the NHS (esp. mental health)? Goodness me what a toxic list of questions! Trans, green belt, immigration, net zero, EU, river pollution... it's like reading what's trending on Twitter!  At least the last two were likely to lead to more constructive debate. yes, tbh my question about Brexit was designed to stir things up, and it got a big laugh when it was read out  Some of the questions were clearly planted by people with a vested interest which came out when they were invited to make a final comment. And it surprised me that there weren't any questions about the cost of living crisis which is supposedly the No. 1 issue in this election - but then again this is Surrey and the type of people who attend hustings are likely to be the better off anyway. |
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soph
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Post by soph on Jul 2, 2024 13:49:49 GMT
In case anyone is interested in how J.L. Partners stacked regression and poststratification (SRP) model differs from multi-level regression and poststratification models, the academic paper on which it is based is here. I shall just wait until July 5th and see whether their prediction is better than MRP. Thanks for the link! Will be very interesting to see how well it does. |
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Post by johntel on Jul 2, 2024 13:52:18 GMT
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jul 2, 2024 13:55:12 GMT
What will you do to improve teacher morale? What will you do to improve social care and the NHS (esp. mental health)? Goodness me what a toxic list of questions! Trans, green belt, immigration, net zero, EU, river pollution... it's like reading what's trending on Twitter! At least the last two were likely to lead to more constructive debate. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2024 14:05:38 GMT
johntel“ And it surprised me that there weren't any questions about the cost of living crisis which is supposedly the No. 1 issue in this election - but then again this is Surrey and the type of people who attend hustings are likely to be the better off anyway.” I assume that includes you John. Could you lend me a fiver please?
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 2, 2024 14:08:39 GMT
Not many polls so far this week, suspect most if not all will be released tomorrow
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Post by johntel on Jul 2, 2024 14:21:08 GMT
johntel “ And it surprised me that there weren't any questions about the cost of living crisis which is supposedly the No. 1 issue in this election - but then again this is Surrey and the type of people who attend hustings are likely to be the better off anyway.” I assume that includes you John. Could you lend me a fiver please? On yer bike, as Norman 'bite your legs' Tebitt used to say. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jul 2, 2024 14:23:09 GMT
If the extracts of his Times interview are correct, Starmer seems to want the Labour Party to amend the Equality Act to reduce transgender rights.
To enforce such a ruling on single-sex spaces would require draconian measures such as genital examination on entry (and what about those who have undergone surgical transition?), mandatory carrying of ID cards stating the birth gender, or similar - none of which will be introduced.
In reality (as my wife and daughter have pointed out), those people who "look female" will go into female-only spaces unchallenged, as they do now, while those who "look male" (not all of whom are "butch lesbians"!) will be challenged and excluded. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2024 14:25:44 GMT
johntel “ And it surprised me that there weren't any questions about the cost of living crisis which is supposedly the No. 1 issue in this election - but then again this is Surrey and the type of people who attend hustings are likely to be the better off anyway.” I assume that includes you John. Could you lend me a fiver please? On yer bike, as Norman 'bite your legs' Tebitt used to say. I can tell you’re a Tory. A lefty would have said, kindly: “Are you sure that’s enough Paul?” which offers the opening for my: “Well, could you perhaps manage twenty??” |
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Post by alec on Jul 2, 2024 14:35:29 GMT
Ukraine; more reports emerging, with more consistency, of major outbreaks of disease among Russian occupying forces. This appears most notable in the Kherson area, where typhoid and cholera appear to be spreading and there are persistent reports of Russians surrendering because of thirst. This latest round of reports includes an analysis from Bild in Germany, where their open intelligence reporters have identified multiple Russian reports water shortages and sickness.
Cholera is endemic in Ukraine, and what appears to be happening is that the Russian logistical efforts and being badly hampered by Ukraine. Water is bulky and heavy and needs to be delivered right to the front lines in large volumes, and Russia don't appear to be able to do this. This forces their troops to drink from local sources, but they haven't been adequately equipped with filters and sterilizing tablets, so quickly get infected. Cholera has a 50%+ fatality rate if it isn't treated quickly.
Some are starting to discuss the prospect of a major Russian collapse as their lines in some areas appear to be being rapidly depleted because of this issue.
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