pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 6,872
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Post by pjw1961 on Feb 22, 2024 18:26:54 GMT
Did you play them a few of your dittys to cheer them up?? 😮💨🤣 Just couldn’t stop them banging on about HOC protocol, “an absolute disgrace”, “we could have had peace everywhere” etc etc etc Battso. Everybody talking over everybody else, gesticulating, shouting (some with Scottish accents which were extremely loud 🏴  .) I had to get little Daisie’s earmuffs out because she was whimpering - so glad I had them handy.  Were they calling for Speaker Hoyle to be flogged through the streets of Aberdeen or was Aylesbury far enough? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 22, 2024 18:34:44 GMT
Surely, if you believed you were not a child killer you could publicly address the issue and explain why you are not, problem? It is remarkable - almost unbelievable- but you are coming up with posts that are increasingly and utterly bonkers. Just to take your first sentence, how would it be possible for someone to just “believe” they were not a child killer!?! Quite obviously they would know if they’re not. For any other posters reading this I won’t go through the other daft stuff you wrote as it is clearly a waste of their - and my - time. I'm sorry you took my three options out of context. Do you want me to write at greater length next time, so my meaning is completely clear? I took three alternatives, where you believe you are a child killer, where you believe you are not, and where you believe you arent but others unreasonably believe you are. My use of believe was precise, because attacks on politicians is very often a question of what someone believes about that politician. It is perfectly possible that based on the exact same facts one person might consider this means a person IS a child killer, but another they are not. We arent talking about MPS taking out guns in a classroom themselves, we are talking about, specifically, whether children dying today in the gaza strip are doing so because of the actions of local vigilantes, Israeli security forces, Local or Israeli politicians, world politicians such as member of the Uk government, historic decisions such as by previous Uk governments. Its perfectly possible for a politician to believe they are responsible for something, which they did not personally commit but created the circumstances for. Or the reverse. And its very very possible for facts to be spun to create beliefs one way or another. Do members of the current government regard themselves as responsible for the increased NHS death rate since con took office? I mean, its happened. As funding fell, death rates rose. It seems certain this is causation not simply correlation. Therefore those politicians killed those people through their choices. Do they believe they are killers or not? |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 6,872
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Post by pjw1961 on Feb 22, 2024 18:42:27 GMT
And now for some good old fashioned fun. Local Government by-elections:
BUCKINGHAMSHIRE UA; Farnham Common & Burnham Beeches (Con resigned)
Candidates:
COLLINS, Alexa (Labour)
LINTON, Carol Lesley (Liberal Democrat)
MOORE, David (Conservative)
2021: Con 1421, 1384, 1372; LD 885, 819, 554; Lab 386, 292; RefUK 99
In the current circumstances you have to fancy a Lib Dem gain
BUCKINGHAMSHIRE UA; Hazlemere (Con died)
Candidates:
CASEY, Leigh Anthony (Independent)
DALE, Adam Christopher (Labour)
ROY, Steven John (Conservative)
TITTERINGTON, Mark (Liberal Democrat)
2021: Con 1624, 1373, 1156; Ind 1380; LD 371, 256; Lab 354, 314, 298; Freedom All 124
Tougher one this. On paper you would think Con hold, but may depend on what happens to the prior Ind vote. As always when Buckinghamshire is mentioned I can't help but marvel at a Council that apparently needs 147 councillors, over 100 of them Tory. If I recollect correctly, by law the maximium size of a cabinet is 8, so that's another 100+ the group leader will have to try and find something to do.
Current Council: Con 109; LD 17; Ind 7; Lab 6; Wycombe Ind 3; Ind Network 2; Grn 1; 2 vacancies
DERBYSHIRE DALES DC; Bakewell (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BUTCHER, Bob (Labour)
CADOGAN, Claire Lorraine Faithorn (Liberal Democrat)
CROSBY, Lesley Wendy (Reform UK)
ELNAUGH-LOVE, Rachel Elizabeth (Independent)
PELTELL, Nicola (Green)
WALSH, Richard Noel (Conservative)
2023: Con 1011, 581; Lab 526; Grn 307; LD 178, 166; Ind 175
It is worth noting that it is the top-placed Conservative who has resigned and he had a personal vote. Outside chance of a rare Labour gain? Rachel Elnaugh is a interesting candidate - ex-Dragons Den star turned anti-vax conspiracist.
DERBYSHIRE DALES DC; Norbury (Con died)
Candidates:
ALLEN, Bob (Labour)
BULL, Sue (Conservative)
HILL, John James (Green)
SHIRTCLIFFE, Robin Michael (Liberal Democrat)
2023: Con 492; Lab 123; Grn 116
Really should be Con hold.
FOLKESTONE & HYTHE DC; Romney Marsh (Con resigned)
Candidates:
COOPER, Chrissie (Labour)
EVANS, Dave (Independent)
HILLS, Tony (Conservative)
HORROX, Matt (Liberal Democrat)
MEYERS, Ian Barry (Independent)
PEACOCK, Paul Andrew (Independent)
RYE, Kim Elizabeth (Reform UK)
WATKINSON, Malcolm (Green)
YOUNG, Dougie (No Description)
2023:Con 647, 532; Lab 534, 481; Ind 491, 451; Grn 357; LD 161; No Desc 60
Too many Independents to make a guess here.
MILTON KEYNES UA; Loughton & Shenley (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BRADY, Ray (Independent)
GREEN, Garrath Jonathan (Liberal Democrat)
LEE, Timothy Aaron (Green)
MONTAGUE, Leo (Labour)
SHARMA, Rajeev (Conservative)
2023: Lab 1652; Con 1315; LD 264; Grn 178
Really should be Labour hold, although you wouldn't call it a safe seat.
SCOTTISH BORDERS UA; Jedburgh & District (SNP resigned)
Candidates:
BATHGATE, John Lawrence (Conservative)
CLARK, James Douglas (Scottish Eco-Federalists)
DIXON, Phil (SNP)
GEORGESON, Ray (Liberal Democrat)
HUGHES, Kaymarie (Labour)
STRANG, Charles (Green)
2022: Con 1089 (elected), 675 (elected); SNP 675 (elected); Ind 529, 102; Grn 250; Alba 53
The SNP have lost every by-election they have defended since May and they will lose this one too. Con gain.
WILTSHIRE UA; Calne Chilvester & Abberd (Con died)
Candidates:
CLARKE, Taylor Paul Dickson (Conservative)
MacNAUGHTON, Robert (Liberal Democrat)
MASLEN, Nick (Labour)
PILCHER-CLAYTON, Hugh (Green)
2021: Con 574; LD 332; Lab 179; Grn 136
You have to fancy a Lib Dem Gain in this one.
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Post by The-Ever-Popular-Crofty on Feb 22, 2024 18:56:41 GMT
Just couldn’t stop them banging on about HOC protocol, “an absolute disgrace”, “we could have had peace everywhere” etc etc etc Battso. Everybody talking over everybody else, gesticulating, shouting (some with Scottish accents which were extremely loud 🏴 .) I had to get little Daisie’s earmuffs out because she was whimpering - so glad I had them handy. Were they calling for Speaker Hoyle to be flogged through the streets of Aberdeen or was Aylesbury far enough? “Frae Aylesbury tae Aberdeen” was the cry PJ. I embraced my Scots heritage and joined in. |
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Post by The-Ever-Popular-Crofty on Feb 22, 2024 18:57:48 GMT
“ I'm sorry you took my three options out of context. Do you want me to write at greater length next time, so my meaning is completely clear?”
No thanks.
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Post by Old Southendian on Feb 22, 2024 19:01:59 GMT
We've been thinking again, apparantly. Though it was a few days ago. I don't think it's been reported here yet.
We Think
15–16 Feb
1,246 polled GB
CON 26
LAB 46 +4
LDEM 9 -2
SNP 2 -1
GRN 6
REF 8 -2
OTH 2
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Post by alec on Feb 22, 2024 19:10:44 GMT
Warning, possibly: I just opened UKPR2 and noticed an unexpected download, filename gmdoQDx0.htm
I've deleted this, but have no idea why it should have downloaded or whether it is malicious.
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Post by alec on Feb 22, 2024 19:16:14 GMT
If you're attacked by an angry mob of clowns, go for the juggler.
Cracks me up every time I see that one.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 6,872
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Post by pjw1961 on Feb 22, 2024 19:47:57 GMT
We've been thinking again, apparantly. Though it was a few days ago. I don't think it's been reported here yet. We Think 15–16 Feb 1,246 polled GB CON 26 LAB 46 +4 LDEM 9 -2 SNP 2 -1 GRN 6 REF 8 -2 OTH 2 I like their thinking |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 22, 2024 19:49:35 GMT
We've been thinking again, apparantly. Though it was a few days ago. I don't think it's been reported here yet. We Think 15–16 Feb 1,246 polled GB CON 26 LAB 46 +4 LDEM 9 -2 SNP 2 -1 GRN 6 REF 8 -2 OTH 2 I like their thinking Are they thinking what we're thinking?? |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 22, 2024 19:50:48 GMT
Warning, possibly: I just opened UKPR2 and noticed an unexpected download, filename gmdoQDx0.htm I've deleted this, but have no idea why it should have downloaded or whether it is malicious. It's harmless. I opened it and it's a 1973 tourist guide to Hastings. |
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neilj
Member
Posts: 5,103
Member is Online
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Post by neilj on Feb 22, 2024 20:02:58 GMT
Warning, possibly: I just opened UKPR2 and noticed an unexpected download, filename gmdoQDx0.htm I've deleted this, but have no idea why it should have downloaded or whether it is malicious. It's harmless. I opened it and it's a 1973 tourist guide to Hastings. The year of the Great Plague |
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domjg
Member
Posts: 4,487
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Post by domjg on Feb 22, 2024 20:03:09 GMT
Warning, possibly: I just opened UKPR2 and noticed an unexpected download, filename gmdoQDx0.htm I've deleted this, but have no idea why it should have downloaded or whether it is malicious. It's harmless. I opened it and it's a 1973 tourist guide to Hastings. Only a couple of kB in size then I guess? |
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domjg
Member
Posts: 4,487
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Post by domjg on Feb 22, 2024 20:05:03 GMT
It's harmless. I opened it and it's a 1973 tourist guide to Hastings. The year of the Great Plague Possibly the last time this country made a sensible decision about it's geo-political future.. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Feb 22, 2024 20:28:48 GMT
An idle (defo not idol) thought, but what's happened to David Davis? He used to be an almost permanent presence on TV but now both he and Raab seem to have totally disappeared from view.
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Post by lefthanging on Feb 22, 2024 20:42:24 GMT
An idle (defo not idol) thought, but what's happened to David Davis? He used to be an almost permanent presence on TV but now both he and Raab seem to have totally disappeared from view. He was on Channel 4 news tonight! He was discussing fighting SLAPPs - which apparently stands for Strategic Litigation against Public Participation - which are frivolous lawsuits against journalists and whistleblowers designed to intimidate them into silence. You're though, he's not the constant talking head he once was. |
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Post by EmCat on Feb 22, 2024 20:46:56 GMT
Labour lead with YouGov up 6 points on last week to 26 points PS sorry Dave but tories on 20% One thing I find striking about that YouGov graph is that you could draw a straight line through the Tory VI from 2020 to now which shows a steady and strong decline. Blips like national crises (Covid and Ukraine) and the Truss debacle have no lasting effect on this. The disaffection is much deeper and more substantial. The equivalent Labour line is an (albeit imperfect) mirror image. Looking at the trend lines from around mid-2023 onwards, and Labour is flattish (at around 45%, so not exactly a cause for alarm for them), Conservatives are on a steady decline, LibDem are slightly down, SNP flat, Green flattish and Reform on the up. Extrapolating forwards (which increasingly seems to be what the Tory strategists seem to be doing to inform their decisions), and it looks as though Reform will cross over with the Tories in the summer. Almost as if the game plan is to kill off the party and rise, phoenix like from its ashes, as Reform. A few well played defections and it will be job done for the wreckers within the Conservative party MPs |
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Danny
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Posts: 8,288
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Post by Danny on Feb 22, 2024 20:53:00 GMT
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Post by James E on Feb 22, 2024 21:53:31 GMT
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Post by alec on Feb 22, 2024 22:22:42 GMT
What we love about twitter -
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
Should it have been given offside?
Posts: 4,854
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Feb 22, 2024 22:23:11 GMT
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Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 593
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Post by Dave on Feb 22, 2024 22:25:58 GMT
Labour lead with YouGov up 6 points on last week to 26 points PS sorry Dave but tories on 20% I'll let you off just this once Neil because that'll do nicely. |
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Post by ptarmigan on Feb 22, 2024 23:27:58 GMT
The more I reflect on yesterday the more I think Labour's conduct was appalling. I maintain that the SNP motion was a perfectly reasonably worded motion that anyone who gave a fig about events in Gaza should have been minded to support. However, the Labour leadership apparently found it unconscionable because it contained criticism of the architects of the ongoing genocide to the point that they allegedly blackmailed the Speaker (an MP of the Labour Right) to override long-established procedure. If someone like Johnson had pulled that stunt the centrist commentariat (and no doubt many posters on this site) would rightly be up in arms.
Hoyle's position should be untenable. I understand why some MPs might have general concerns as to their safety and any threats should of course be investigated but the idea that the speaker had to take the action he did yesterday because of an elevated threat to the safety and security of MPs to the point of having to depart from established convention is absurd. I actually find it sinister as this sort of rationale could theoretically be invoked at any point in order to avoid scrutiny on important issues - we've already seen politicians and media misrepresent what have largely been exceptionally peaceful protests on Gaza.
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Post by mercian on Feb 22, 2024 23:54:16 GMT
Rafwans comment that "The equivalent Labour line is an (albeit imperfect) mirror image." is true but startling since it suggests that large numbers of people have deserted their normal Tory choice and intend to vote Labour rather than just abstain. To me that isnt credible. Just playing with numbers here, but: In 2019 votes as a %ge of the electorate were CON 29% LAB 22% OTH 10 DNV 39 Now just as an example let's suppose that 50% of CON go to DNV and no other changes happen at all. This would give %ge of the electorate as CON 15 LAB 22 OTH 10 DNV 53 As the polls usually ignore WNV, this would translate into 15/47 = 32% CON 22/47 = 47% LAB 10/47 = 21% OTH Obviously the real situation is a lot more complicated than this, but I'm just trying to show that a massive swing doesn't necessarily mean voters are switching directly from one major party to the other. |
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Post by mercian on Feb 23, 2024 0:02:10 GMT
An idle (defo not idol) thought, but what's happened to David Davis? He used to be an almost permanent presence on TV but now both he and Raab seem to have totally disappeared from view. Good point. Perhaps they're too Conservative? I have no idea what the current government is. |
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Post by robbiealive on Feb 23, 2024 0:10:36 GMT
Hoyle was out of order & his excuses are unconvincing; but then it appears that the SNP. in part, were using their Opposition Day not to Oppose the government! but to attack Labour; while the government whistled up a wrecking amendment to prevent a cynical Labour amendment or counter-move.
It is hard to get v excited about a breach of procedures brought on by the fact that all 3 parties were manipulating procedures as much to score points as to comment on the war in Gaza
Meanwhile the government's Voter Suppression Act threatens to prevent hundreds of thousands of people from voting this year and no one gives a toss. It seems curious we should defend HOC rules to the death while basic democratic rights should be squashed without a murmur.
No idea about Opposition days but could not one be used to defend democracy.
PS The government is clearly not going to support removing Hoyle.
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Post by ptarmigan on Feb 23, 2024 0:12:48 GMT
It's very easy, maybe even justifiable too, to dismiss politicians like Truss as risible political figures. National jokes, easily lampooned and derided. Rees-Mogg and Francois too. But when you read about the dangerous nonsense that people like Truss clearly believe, you start to appreciate the real dangers that politicians like her and her fellow travellers pose to us all. For they have penetrated one of our so called mainstream political parties and, in so doing, now possess a vehicle that could transport this poison into government. Truss isn't some maverick politician lurking on the nuttier fringes of our politics, she is a former Cabinet minister possessing significant support amongst the parliamentary Tory party and its membership. Put another way, she isn't a million miles away from power. Accordingly this deep state silliness is much more than a bad joke. It's quite possible that senior Tory politicians like Badenoch and Braverman would sign up to it too. Farage is already on board. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/21/liz-truss-deep-state-cpac-far-rightI always wonder how much of this stuff they truly do believe. There are plenty of media outlets and other platforms willing to give people time and money to spout stuff that's demonstrably completely ludicrous - the right-wing grifter circuit seems to be very lucrative these days and I suspect a lot of the politicians leaping aboard are just along for the ride. Having said that, Truss' Tufton St background does lead me to suspect she's probably a true believer in at least some of it. Of course, whether these opinions are sincerely held or not doesn't really matter in terms of their capacity to do harm. What gets me is the delusion, narcissism and self-regard inherent in everything she's said and done since being PM. If I'd had her tenure as PM I think I'd have shamefacedly retired from public life and become a recluse but not our Liz! She'd have saved the world were it not for the shadowy woke cabal intent on thwarting her! It's a pretty bizarre spectacle. |
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Post by mercian on Feb 23, 2024 0:28:13 GMT
Last radio 5 report a few minutes ago said that it has probably landed but they can't establish contact yet. Pretty humiliating if they can't do what they did 53 years ago. Or was it all faked... ? Woo-oo-oo On the soot particle thing. Obviously it's not good, but vast progress has been made over the last decades, starting with the Clean Air Acts in the 1950s. It all needs to be kept in proportion. My parents were in their 30s when that happened and yet they lived to 86 and 94. All risk in life cannot be eliminated. Welcome back BTW. 👍 |
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Post by mercian on Feb 23, 2024 0:38:32 GMT
Hoyle was out of order & his excuses are unconvincing; but then it appears that the SNP. in part, were using their Opposition Day not to Oppose the government! but to attack Labour; while the government whistled up a wrecking amendment to prevent a cynical Labour amendment or counter-move. It is hard to get v excited about a breach of procedures brought on by the fact that all 3 parties were manipulating procedures as much to score points as to comment on the war in Gaza Meanwhile the government's Voter Suppression Act threatens to prevent hundreds of thousands of people from voting this year and no one gives a toss. It seems curious we should defend HOC rules to the death while basic democratic rights should be squashed without a murmur. No idea about Opposition days but could not one be used to defend democracy. PS The government is clearly not going to support removing Hoyle. I'm guessing that this is a reference to the requirement for voter id? How is it democratic for any random person to roll up to vote without showing that they are entitled to? I've never been asked for my voter registration card when voting, all I've had to give is my name and address. If I could be bothered it wouldn't be too hard to find a few people in the locality who weren't going to vote, and vote in their place. I know that people say that there have been very few proven cases of electoral fraud, but how could that be detected unless the officials at the polling station happened to know the person that a fraudster was claiming to be? |
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Post by mercian on Feb 23, 2024 0:43:46 GMT
By-election results (will be updated until I get tired). There are supposed to be another couple tonight.
Calne Chilvester and Abberd by-election for Wiltshire Unitary Authority:
LD gain from Con
UPDATE: Apparently the Conservatives have held both Buckinghamshire seats but figures no available yet. Other results tomorrow. Goodnight all.
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.) I had to get little Daisie’s earmuffs out because she was whimpering - so glad I had them handy. 
