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Post by pete on Feb 10, 2024 8:53:55 GMT
People think Biden has memory problems
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2024 9:12:23 GMT
Meanwhile, climate scientists are quietly tearing their hair out at the remarkable indifference shown by governments and society in general to the steady stream of data that is pointed to rapid, irreversible and catastrophic climate change occurring on a far more rapid timescale than anyone previously imagined - www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/09/atlantic-ocean-circulation-nearing-devastating-tipping-point-study-findsEvery day brings more grim news, and this one rings some of the loudest alarm bells. While the study suggests that the collapse of the single biggest climate circulatory system on the plant would unfold over a century or so, the speed that this would disrupt global climate systems is such that adaptation would not be possible. We're really not far at all from a civilisation ending level of climate change, but, well, what the fuck. Taylor Swift's on tour, so who cares? The models indicating a shut down of the Gulf Stream by the mid 2050s show London's temperature falling by 7 degrees and the continent being plunged into a completely different climate system. Thats in just thirty years-the complete destruction of Europe's way of life and economy ! There is no Green Plan which copes with that. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 10, 2024 9:18:17 GMT
Quite a week across the pond... As for Biden... sheesh. If you're going to call an impromptu press conference to show how totally mentally fine you are then maybe don't get suckered into shouting at them in frustration, and definitely don't confuse Egypt with Mexico because they've both got Border Issues at the moment. And those saying "ah well the Prosecutor was a Republican so clearly Biased"... by convention he had to be a Republican because Biden's hand-picked Attorney-General couldn't credibly appoint a fellow Democrat to investigate whether his boss broke the law. Whether this Prosecutor has gone on a bit of an adventure in making his mark on history is fair to question, but also a bit of a tricky path for Democrats whilst trying to argue that all the Democrat Prosecutors going after Trump are the truest of public servants doing their job with utmost impartiality. Nikki Haley is still going - tho the numbers in her home state of South Carolina aren't getting any less ugly ahead of the next primary there. There's not much polling but what there is continues to have Trump ahead by what would be humiliating margins. So either Haley is seeing something to make her *seriously* doubt the polling, or she's just hanging on now in the hope that Trump gets hit by a political asteroid before lack of money forces her to drop out. www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2024/south-carolina "by convention he had to be a Republican because Biden's hand-picked Attorney-General couldn't credibly appoint a fellow Democrat to investigate whether his boss broke the law." - Why does everything in the US have to be party political? Have they not heard of the concept of unbiased neutrality? An eminent lawyer for example, with no history of attachment to either party. Having said that, the end of Biden's press conference was a disaster and really he needs to take the decision to withdraw and let someone else stand for the Democrats. But there seems no chance he will and instead will stagger on to the general election and quite possibly lose to Trump. Not so long ago I was certain Trump couldn't win but, just as in 2016, it seems the Democrats are determined to put forward possibly the only candidate who Trump can beat. Haley will be gone after South Carolina IMO. I have never thought any of the legal actions would stop Trump standing. Your analysis/hypothesis is only lacking the "strongly suspect" element of relative certainty, albeit I noticed the obligatory IMOs and quite possibly caveats! I'll go with you on the Haley imminent withdrawal from the race, but I'm not sure about your other semi-assertions. I happen to think it's quite possible that Trump is the ONLY Republican candidate Biden could beat in a presidential race. I also think it's still quite possible that Trump falls through a legal trap door, maybe not conviction and sentencing before November, but court hearing revelations that derail him. I hereby declare that both of us are strongly suspecting/speculating here and neither of us can be sure of the various outcomes yet. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 10, 2024 9:20:09 GMT
Meanwhile, climate scientists are quietly tearing their hair out at the remarkable indifference shown by governments and society in general to the steady stream of data that is pointed to rapid, irreversible and catastrophic climate change occurring on a far more rapid timescale than anyone previously imagined - www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/09/atlantic-ocean-circulation-nearing-devastating-tipping-point-study-findsEvery day brings more grim news, and this one rings some of the loudest alarm bells. While the study suggests that the collapse of the single biggest climate circulatory system on the plant would unfold over a century or so, the speed that this would disrupt global climate systems is such that adaptation would not be possible. We're really not far at all from a civilisation ending level of climate change, but, well, what the fuck. Taylor Swift's on tour, so who cares? The models indicating a shut down of the Gulf Stream by the mid 2050s show London's temperature falling by 7 degrees and the continent being plunged into a completely different climate system. Thats in just thirty years-the complete destruction of Europe's way of life and economy ! There is no Green Plan which copes with that. And a good cheery morning to you too Colin. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 10, 2024 9:22:31 GMT
In this morning's "bollocks with LBC" We had a move away from the weekday edition of " richsplaining with Nick" to say the first random thought that comes into your bonce.
In the space of two sentences we had weekend Ferrari replacement say life expectancy fell 3 years in 2021 because of covid , the actual figure was around three weeks to be followed by his guest , who not to be out done on the stupidity stakes said national insurance contributions pays for the national health service.
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 10, 2024 9:25:34 GMT
petePresident Biden's memory is failing.But otherwise is mentally competent. The traitor can't remember what's true or not and doesn't care and is deranged. There's a subtle difference
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 10, 2024 9:26:09 GMT
People think Biden has memory problems So the choice may end up between a loathsome sociopath who has lost his marbles and is surrounded by a coterie of deluded fantasists or a decent man with fading memory who has a proven track record of public service in high office, surrounded by experienced and well motivated close advisers and state officials. Not even a Hobson's choice is it? I'm voting for the older guy. |
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Post by shevii on Feb 10, 2024 9:26:42 GMT
The thing with turnout at a General Election is that it can be down to multiple factors. What might hold turnout up this time is there seems to be a strong desire now to kick the Tories out so although the reaction to Labour's offerings is lukewarm it might not prevent people going to the polls to achieve that outcome. But turnout will also be affected by Tories staying at home and especially "get brexit done" one time Tories- 1997 Labour put on 2m voters but Tories lost 4.5m voters and LD were virtually unchanged so crudely it could be argued more Tory voters stayed at home than switched sides. Whether the inevitability of the outcome depresses turnout as well is possible but it was 2001 when the turnout dived perhaps for that reason as well as reaction to the Labour government where Labour ended up with less votes than 1992 but Tories also lost more votes on 1997. I think we're also now into a period of X-Factor politics where the desire to vote is not so strong and only happens when there is some personality or single issue (Brexit) that makes people bother.
I think turnout will hold to some degree this time around although not to the scale of the brexit/Corbyn elections.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2024 9:36:07 GMT
The models indicating a shut down of the Gulf Stream by the mid 2050s show London's temperature falling by 7 degrees and the continent being plunged into a completely different climate system. Thats in just thirty years-the complete destruction of Europe's way of life and economy ! There is no Green Plan which copes with that. And a good cheery morning to you too Colin. Don't worry about it old bean. Starmer will sort it out.  |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 10, 2024 9:38:37 GMT
And a good cheery morning to you too Colin. Don't worry about it old bean. Starmer will sort it out. Not the Far Right sweeping Europe before them? |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Feb 10, 2024 9:41:49 GMT
Your analysis/hypothesis is only lacking the "strongly suspect" element of relative certainty, albeit I noticed the obligatory IMOs and quite possibly caveats! I'll go with you on the Haley imminent withdrawal from the race, but I'm not sure about your other semi-assertions. I happen to think it's quite possible that Trump is the ONLY Republican candidate Biden could beat in a presidential race. I also think it's still quite possible that Trump falls through a legal trap door, maybe not conviction and sentencing before November, but court hearing revelations that derail him. I hereby declare that both of us are strongly suspecting/speculating here and neither of us can be sure of the various outcomes yet. The Haley thing is a racing certainty. She has no chance of the Republican nomination and it is just a matter of when not if she pulls out. Being walloped in your home state seems a very good bet as to when. The legal issues point is more contentious I will concede, but the US legal system is not well known for seriously punishing rich people. The Colorado case is clearly going to be thrown our by the Supreme Court. Even the liberal justices were unimpressed. As for the rest of the cases - for the Republican base it is just evidence of Trumo being persecuted. The US polls don't suggest that Trump is the only candidate Biden can beat. He actually does better against Haley or De Santis than he does against Trump. Weird as it seems to Europeans, Trump has a degree of popularity is the US - skyscraper-ingly high among Republicans (87% approval last time I looked), but much less so with everyone else. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2024 9:45:30 GMT
Don't worry about it old bean. Starmer will sort it out. Not the Far Right sweeping Europe before them? Skiing before them I think-or sledging. Still Pedro Sanchez will still be clinging on to power I expect. Bastion of the Centre Left holed up in his igloo ,guarded by his Praetorian Guard of Basque Nationalists. So there is always hope . |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 10, 2024 9:53:03 GMT
The thing with turnout at a General Election is that it can be down to multiple factors. What might hold turnout up this time is there seems to be a strong desire now to kick the Tories out so although the reaction to Labour's offerings is lukewarm it might not prevent people going to the polls to achieve that outcome. But turnout will also be affected by Tories staying at home and especially "get brexit done" one time Tories- 1997 Labour put on 2m voters but Tories lost 4.5m voters and LD were virtually unchanged so crudely it could be argued more Tory voters stayed at home than switched sides. Whether the inevitability of the outcome depresses turnout as well is possible but it was 2001 when the turnout dived perhaps for that reason as well as reaction to the Labour government where Labour ended up with less votes than 1992 but Tories also lost more votes on 1997. I think we're also now into a period of X-Factor politics where the desire to vote is not so strong and only happens when there is some personality or single issue (Brexit) that makes people bother. I think turnout will hold to some degree this time around although not to the scale of the brexit/Corbyn elections. I agree with some of this, particularly the single issue stimulus to turnout point you make, but I think, like a lot of things, it may be premature to speculate too much now on turnout in this year's election, especially doing so on the basis of perceived current enthusiasm levels. I agree with you about the abrupt tuning in and out of politics that you tend to get nowadays, whereby most voters pay relatively little attention outside of election times, or major national/global events, and it's for this reason that I think an election campaign can quickly ignite and surprisingly stimulate interest. People can tune in very quickly. That said, turnouts of 70% appear to be the ceiling now. Up to the 2000s they would have been described as desultory and low turnouts. We're aspiring to them now. It's why I think it's important that Starmer, should he gain power, addresses our broken political system. So much of what doesn't work in this country can be traced back to our malfunctioning sub-democracy. It's why I agree with much of Marr's analysis. Starmer won't be able to steer around these issues. He'll have to confront them. They are all interrelated and entwined like a cat's cradle. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 10, 2024 9:53:56 GMT
I wonder what it is like to be part of such a big tent organisation which throws up such diverse leader Candidates as Ash Regan, Kate Forbes, and Humza Yousaf who in another Polity might variously represent the Conservatives, the Lib Dems or Labour. Is this the concept of 'wheest for Indy' that I have heard about in operation? I suspect the experience is similar for members of most major parties - it's less than a decade since Labour had a leadership election between Jeremy Corbyn, Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall; more recently still the Tories had one that included Rory Stewart, Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove, or if you want to rewind a bit in 2005 they had one with David Davis, David Cameron and Ken Clarke. Except a number of such candiates were there simply for show. Like Corbyn. And then look what happened when it turned out his policies were genuinely popular amongst a lot of different people to the normal run of members, andhow the party then had to turn against them to distance itself from him...and from those voters.
Corbyn had the potential to be a dream ticket for labour, him moderately left (yes, I mean that in absolute terms), counterbalanced by the party giving prominence to plenty of more right wingers so that the public could see it was a broad ticket with nothing to fear. Only the right of the party was not willing to compromise at all, for fear it might pull the whole party to the left away fom Thatcherism.
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 10, 2024 9:54:43 GMT
Not the Far Right sweeping Europe before them? Skiing before them I think-or sledging. Still Pedro Sanchez will still be clinging on to power I expect. Bastion of the Centre Left holed up in his igloo ,guarded by his Praetorian Guard of Basque Nationalists. So there is always hope . Eh?? As I think they say in the more cerebral reaches of this august political discussion forum. 😅😁 |
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Post by shevii on Feb 10, 2024 9:57:05 GMT
Of all the by elections seems to me like Rochdale is the most "interesting". I think the maths says that Labour are safe here but so far:
- No Far Far right candidate standing. Britain First announced a candidate but failed to get their paperwork in. We can be grateful that North West Euro candidate Tommy Robinson didn't fancy it.
- Far right candidate for RefUK, in an area where they might have have made an issue out of child grooming, is ex labour who Labour barred from standing for "legally" sexting a 17 year old.
- Green Party candidate has ceased campaigning after historical anti Muslim tweets were unearthed.
- Galloway!
Word on twitter (so it must be true) is that Labour have more or less given up canvassing Muslim areas and cannot get any Muslim canvassers from out of town. There's quite a few videos on twitter now with the most prominent being where the (Muslim) candidate walks into a diner and is told to fuck off by the (Muslim) diners and leaves to hand signals normally reserved for West Ham and Aston Villa fans- no violence threatened but a sort of hostile party atmosphere. Starmer has been asked not to attend the campaign allegedly.
Under other circumstances this might have been a repeat of Batley & Spen with a divided Lab vote nearly letting the Tories through but can't see Tory voters turning out now. Can't see the maths stack up for a Galloway win either but everything suggests that Palestine has tanked Labour's Muslim vote and provided them with a Galloway option to vote for.
Also every candidate appears to want the maternity and A&E reopened so let's make that happen. "No babies being born in Rochdale" was one of the slogans I saw.
Be interesting for some Labour feedback on what is happening here. Can't see their GOTV working too well here.
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 10, 2024 10:04:57 GMT
Of all the by elections seems to me like Rochdale is the most "interesting". I think the maths says that Labour are safe here but so far: - No Far Far right candidate standing. Britain First announced a candidate but failed to get their paperwork in. We can be grateful that North West Euro candidate Tommy Robinson didn't fancy it. - Far right candidate for RefUK, in an area where they might have have made an issue out of child grooming, is ex labour who Labour barred from standing for "legally" sexting a 17 year old. - Green Party candidate has ceased campaigning after historical anti Muslim tweets were unearthed. - Galloway! Word on twitter (so it must be true) is that Labour have more or less given up canvassing Muslim areas and cannot get any Muslim canvassers from out of town. There's quite a few videos on twitter now with the most prominent being where the (Muslim) candidate walks into a diner and is told to fuck off by the (Muslim) diners and leaves to hand signals normally reserved for West Ham and Aston Villa fans- no violence threatened but a sort of hostile party atmosphere. Starmer has been asked not to attend the campaign allegedly. Under other circumstances this might have been a repeat of Batley & Spen with a divided Lab vote nearly letting the Tories through but can't see Tory voters turning out now. Can't see the maths stack up for a Galloway win either but everything suggests that Palestine has tanked Labour's Muslim vote and provided them with a Galloway option to vote for. Also every candidate appears to want the maternity and A&E reopened so let's make that happen. "No babies being born in Rochdale" was one of the slogans I saw. Be interesting for some Labour feedback on what is happening here. Can't see their GOTV working too well here. As a Green Party supporter you must be pretty dismayed by your party's candidate's antics, aren't you? Shouldn't they be better than this? I can understand ReformUK but the saintly Greens?? What's the word in the party about candidate vetting procedures at this crucial time when the various parties are now firming up on their PPCs across the country? Are you happy with the Green candidate in your constituency, for example? I make no Wigan Athletic FC references here at all! 😜🤣 |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 10, 2024 10:06:15 GMT
.The models indicating a shut down of the Gulf Stream by the mid 2050s show London's temperature falling by 7 degrees and the continent being plunged into a completely different climate system. Thats in just thirty years-the complete destruction of Europe's way of life and economy ! There is no Green Plan which copes with that. On the bright side, the BBC Horizon program was disussing this possibility in the face of changing climate and the failure of the gulf stream when I was a lad 50 years ago. So at least i got 50 good years. Even then there were indications of change. Although there has been more concentration about this in recent times, concern over climate change isnt new and it has been known about for a very long time indeed. On a smaller scale you only have to look at the mediterranean, which was far greener in Roman times. Population pressures changed all that. It was asinine stupidity to worry about covid in the face of all this. The models indicating a shut down of the Gulf Stream by the mid 2050s show London's temperature falling by 7 degrees and the continent being plunged into a completely different climate system. Thats in just thirty years-the complete destruction of Europe's way of life and economy ! There is no Green Plan which copes with that. And a good cheery morning to you too Colin. Never fear, London might well be under water, so no one there would be worrying about it. |
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Post by alec on Feb 10, 2024 10:11:42 GMT
colin - the biggest impacts I suspect will be on global food production systems. Carnage. The sooner we drop our population numbers the better, but I don't think will happen in any kind of planned, voluntary manner, unfortunately. mercian - I think you misunderstand my mindset. I'm not a doomer, and I'm not overly depressed about the climate situation. On a personal level, I suspect I'll be checking out before the worst of this really kicks in, and although that is a very selfish point of view, it's inevitable that first thoughts will always be 'how does this affect me?'. I'm modestly content that I can look younger people in the eye and say that my own actions were not blame, as to date I've calculated my life's carbon budget to be quite heavily negative, with low consumption and a career spent reducing energy consumption, building renewables and reinvigorating natural carbon absorbing habitats. I could have done more, but I'm content with my own contribution. More widely, I'm not wedded to the human race as a species. There are far too many of us and we're not a very nice species, and a planet without humans, or at least with far fewer, doesn't fill me with horror. Humanities span is time limited, as indeed is the earths - 'this too shall pass', as the Bible quotes. I've read some recent genomic research that suggests the human species suffered an extraordinary bottleneck around a million years ago, which reduced the species to a total of around 1,300 people for around 120,000 years (see www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/news/2023/august/human-ancestors-may-have-almost-died-out-ancient-population-crash.html). This is debated, but I imagine a world with 1,300 souls as a far better place than the one we have now. What I can't reconcile myself to though is the suffering that any transition would entail. We all know who would suffer the most; the poor, the old, the sick. But I remain at heart an optimist. I believe we have the wit and ability to deal with such calamities. All that currently lacks is the wisdom. But I keep hoping.
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Post by alec on Feb 10, 2024 10:14:28 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 10, 2024 10:16:40 GMT
Word on twitter (so it must be true) is that Labour have more or less given up canvassing Muslim areas and cannot get any Muslim canvassers from out of town. Its not as if voting con would give them an anti Israel option. Both lab and con are supportive of Israel cleansing the Gaza strip. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2024 10:18:05 GMT
.The models indicating a shut down of the Gulf Stream by the mid 2050s show London's temperature falling by 7 degrees and the continent being plunged into a completely different climate system. Thats in just thirty years-the complete destruction of Europe's way of life and economy ! There is no Green Plan which copes with that. On the bright side, the BBC Horizon program was disussing this possibility in the face of changing climate and the failure of the gulf stream when I was a lad 50 years ago. So at least i got 50 good years. Even then there were indications of change. Although there has been more concentration about this in recent times, concern over climate change isnt new and it has been known about for a very long time indeed. On a smaller scale you only have to look at the mediterranean, which was far greener in Roman times. Population pressures changed all that. It was asinine stupidity to worry about covid in the face of all this. I agree-we have been talking about it for a while !. But its not looking any LESS possible is it ? Of course climate change has been part of earth's long history. It has been a big factor in driving evolution-including that of our own species. And it has destroyed numerous civilisations before ours. But history has no equivalent billions of modern humans living in a globally interconnected economy reliant on energy supply and technology . |
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 10, 2024 10:24:23 GMT
colinShould the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AKA the Gulf Stream, although it isn’t the same thing exactly) collapse, we in the UK, as well as many other countries of northern Europe, would find out soon enough what a substantial reduction in our mean temperature feels like. That doesn’t mean that the rest of the world won’t be frying to a crisp. Mind you it would "stop the boats" you could walk across both ways. . I hope to be safely ensconced in Spain whose temperature should be quite pleasant before we're invaded by brexitanian " illegal immigrants "
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 10, 2024 10:26:08 GMT
alec They mentioned just one year according to the ons I'm right bu it's a bit greater for men
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 10, 2024 10:27:18 GMT
On the bright side, the BBC Horizon program was disussing this possibility in the face of changing climate and the failure of the gulf stream when I was a lad 50 years ago. So at least i got 50 good years. Even then there were indications of change. Although there has been more concentration about this in recent times, concern over climate change isnt new and it has been known about for a very long time indeed. On a smaller scale you only have to look at the mediterranean, which was far greener in Roman times. Population pressures changed all that. It was asinine stupidity to worry about covid in the face of all this. I agree-we have been talking about it for a while !. But its not looking any LESS possible is it ? Of course climate change has been part of earth's long history. It has been a big factor in driving evolution-including that of our own species. And it has destroyed numerous civilisations before ours. But history has no equivalent billions of modern humans living in a globally interconnected economy reliant on energy supply and technology . We have been reliant on energy supply and technology for thousands of years. So not sure if you meant modern as last 100 years, or last 100,000? But either way, the pattern is the same, that a society exceeds its resources or destroys its environment and collapses. I posted above that if it turns out the planet cannot sustain the current number of humans they will simply die back to the level it can sustain. We seem to be going for that option. And in the face of this the british government's plan to save itself from bankruptcy is to increase the population? To oppose the natural trend we humans seem to have to cut back our population and self limit once society is stable. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 10, 2024 10:28:24 GMT
Still gerrymandering IMO. It would be interesting to see a breakdown of voting by age group. I looked for one but couldn't find it, but I think most people would accept that youth are likely to be more left-wing. It was a policy originally advocated by David "Screaming Lord" Sutch. He stood in the 1963 Stratford (on Avon) by-election and in the 1966 GE in Huyton against Harold Wilson for the "National Teenage Party" and in the 1970 GE in Chelsea for the "Young Ideas Party", all this being prior to MRLP. A late friend and political colleague of mine was at school with David Sutch in Wealdstone. One other fact about him is that he usually made a profit when standing in by-elections because he used to play a gig locally and that covered the cost of his deposit. |
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Post by alec on Feb 10, 2024 10:43:11 GMT
colin and Danny - yes, the issue of climate change has been a concern for many decades, but I think what has changed - and this is really something that has emerged far more strongly only in the last couple of years or so - is the issue of thresholds, tipping points and the speed of change. Things are happening far more dramatically than had been previously thought possible. Part of this is that we are in a strong El Nino cycle, which has really ramped up temperatures. This is likely to unwind in 2025, but the nature of many of these tipping points is that something like a strong El Nino is just the kind of event that will tip the scales. As with covid, the concerns of scientists in the field who actually research this stuff are way ahead of the public and policy makers understanding. In both, the projected possible outcomes in poorer outlook scenarios are coming to pass, far more quickly than even the more downbeat analyses had first thought. But no one really wants to listen.
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Post by pete on Feb 10, 2024 10:56:53 GMT
colin and Danny - yes, the issue of climate change has been a concern for many decades, but I think what has changed - and this is really something that has emerged far more strongly only in the last couple of years or so - is the issue of thresholds, tipping points and the speed of change. Things are happening far more dramatically than had been previously thought possible. Part of this is that we are in a strong El Nino cycle, which has really ramped up temperatures. This is likely to unwind in 2025, but the nature of many of these tipping points is that something like a strong El Nino is just the kind of event that will tip the scales. As with covid, the concerns of scientists in the field who actually research this stuff are way ahead of the public and policy makers understanding. In both, the projected possible outcomes in poorer outlook scenarios are coming to pass, far more quickly than even the more downbeat analyses had first thought. But no one really wants to listen. Disagree. People are listening but either can't afford to do anything about it or can't beat the vested interests who stop/attack anything that will help. Still, I'm with you on it'll be good if man becomes Extinct. |
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Post by Mark on Feb 10, 2024 11:15:43 GMT
Just out and speaks for itself: '' @redfieldwilton Labour leads by 21% in our 5,000 sample poll. Westminster VI (3-5 February): Labour 44% Conservative 23% Reform UK 12% Liberal Democrat 11% Green 5% Scottish National Party 3% Other 1% redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti… pic.twitter.com/jhhhEcNfSH 09/02/2024, 15:00'' Comparing like for like - it was a RedfieldWilton poll I started this thread with, Lab up 1, Con down 1, that could be MOE or even rounding, and Ref unchanged. Longer term, across all pollsters the trend seems to be Lab virtually unchanged, Con down 4-5, Ref up 4-5, LibDem & Green virtually unchanged. A few questions lend themselves.... 1. While 1997 saw a Labour landslide, there was some tightening/recovery of the tory vote share. The tories, on the day got 32%. This far out (I know that we don't yet know when the election will be, but, for the sake of argument, assuming its October, 8 months away), what were the polls saying compared to the final pre-election polls? 2. In 97, the LibDems were snapping at the troies heels from the left. How much was this squeezed back to the tories on the day? Now we also have Reform snapping at their heels from the right. How much is this likely to be squeezed? Is it soft or solid? 3. Tactical voting - this happened in 97, giving a boost to the LibDems. The general feeling is that this will happen to an even greater extent this time, while the LibDems are lower than 97, a greater extent of tactical voting could see them get a similar boost. 4. The 'shy tory' effect on polling numbers. To my mind, this will be lower than 97. Polling was done face to face back then as well as by phone. Now, it's mostly done online, more anonymous with much less actual human contact. |
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Post by hireton on Feb 10, 2024 11:17:17 GMT
mark61As others have said, the SNP big tent is not much different to Westminster big tent parties. One difference is that in Scottish elections those of a progressive attitude who support independence have the choice of two parliamentary parties to vote for. So the SNP big tent may not need to be be quite so capacious as the UK Labour one. Regarding Labour and Starmer there is absolutely no reason why the SNP should not criticise Starmer and the Labour Party. It is not the SNP's job to sort out England's political mess nor to support the least worst British Westminster party. From a Scottish perspective, Labour and the Tories are not that far apart on reserved issues. On economic, fiscal, foreign policy, , the consitution, welfare and defence there really is very little difference. On taxation there are some differences on non- dom status but Reeves seems to be narrowing that difference month by month. There is a difference on employment rights which is probably down to continuing trades union influence. Labour also is more committed to its Green policies and net zero but it remains to be seen how far their diminished plans are further whittled away in office. But the question remains why does Scotland have to wait decades until the English electorate decides once again that it has had enough of the Tories to see changes in reserved policy areas? For example, if employment law was devolved as the SNP, the SGP and the Scottish TUC support, Scotland would already have dealt with matters such as zero hours contracts. Why shouldn't the SNP as a progressive party which has introduced the Scottish Child Payment not criticise Labour for not ending the Tory two child benefit policy? As far as independence and Labour is concerned, the rise in support for independence and the SNP began when Labour were in office in Westminster and Scotland. The modest recovery of Labour in Scotland to take over from the Tories as the main defender of the British state in Scotland has not so far seen any reduction in support for independence in polling (and remember that polling suggests about 20% of Labour voters in Scotland support independence). At the moment it seems that support for independence is not related to the political cycles of party popularity. The idea that it is now related significantly to the state of Westminster and English politics is probably wrong particularly with Labour’s long march to the right.
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