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Post by mercian on Jan 17, 2024 0:19:54 GMT
A little prediction game (ends 31st Jan).
For reference, recent turnouts have been:
1992 77.7
1997 71.4
2001 59.4
2005 61.4
2010 65.1
2015 66.1
2017 68.7
2019 67.3
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,614
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 7, 2024 9:58:44 GMT
A little prediction game (ends 31st Jan). For reference, recent turnouts have been: 1992 77.7 1997 71.4 2001 59.4 2005 61.4 2010 65.1 2015 66.1 2017 68.7 2019 67.3 Electoral Calculus have added an estimated turnout figure to their predictions. Most of the ones I've looked at have been under 60%. |
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shevii
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Posts: 2,284 
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Post by shevii on Mar 7, 2024 14:05:35 GMT
A little prediction game (ends 31st Jan). For reference, recent turnouts have been: 1992 77.7 1997 71.4 2001 59.4 2005 61.4 2010 65.1 2015 66.1 2017 68.7 2019 67.3 Electoral Calculus have added an estimated turnout figure to their predictions. Most of the ones I've looked at have been under 60%. Is there any explanation for this? Presumably what the polls are saying about likelihood to vote? "Good" news for Labour probably as it has to be former Tories staying at home even if they were one time "get brexit done" Tories- older Lab voters who have swung around a fair bit since 2005 and now not bothering maybe. Medium term maybe not so good for Labour though as we've seen from the high will not vote in deprived areas, plus not getting a strong turnout would indicate less of a winning of minds good for a couple of terms at least. Also if Yougov polls are only based on those giving a voting intention then they have some of the higher Lab leads and if the don't knows don't vote then Yougov current polls are going to be closer to the election position than those who operate swingback. |
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