18-OCT 2023 : LAB 44% / CON 28% / LDM 9% / REF 7%

[oldnat]

Feb 1, 2024 23:25:21 GMT crossbat11 said:

Feb 1, 2024 22:42:58 GMT oldnat said:

As Deep Throat advised - "Follow the money".

If you follow the money in Scottish politics you end up in Nicola Sturgeon's campervan.

Oh dear, you are both ignorant and deluded by prejudice.


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[Danny]

You get a different class of adverts on the streaming services.

Last week there were ads asking people to become teachers.

This week ads asking them to become prison warders, saying the job is just like being a teacher.

Can't think why the ad for teachers didnt say it was just like being a prison warder?


Is there a relationship between falling support for a government which has been in power for 14 years, and presumably publicly funded adverts, appealing for teachers and warders because of massive shortages of both?

[oldnat]

Feb 2, 2024 0:24:00 GMT Danny said:

You get a different class of adverts on the streaming services.

Last week there were ads asking people to become teachers.

This week ads asking them to become prison warders, saying the job is just like being a teacher.

Can't think why the ad for teachers didnt say it was just like being a prison warder?


Is there a relationship between falling support for a government which has been in power for 14 years, and presumably publicly funded adverts, appealing for teachers and warders because of massive shortages of both?

You talk, of course, about the government of England, and the public service provision there. There will, naturally, be problems of public financing elsewhere in the UK as well - due to the austerity planning that has been in place since 2010, and will continue under the next UKGov. The extent to which these difficulties have been mitigated by the devolved administrations in the UK varies, but it should not be assumed (on a UK site) that problems in England are suffered to the same extent outwith that jurisdiction.

[neilj]

Feb 1, 2024 23:44:42 GMT mercian said:

domjg
And of course you have data to support that assertion, 🤩

The last 9 years 😀

[domjg]

Feb 2, 2024 0:17:29 GMT oldnat said:

Feb 1, 2024 23:25:21 GMT crossbat11 said:

If you follow the money in Scottish politics you end up in Nicola Sturgeon's campervan.

Oh dear, you are both ignorant and deluded by prejudice.


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There was something about beams and motes in eyes on here earlier...

[domjg]

Feb 1, 2024 23:44:42 GMT mercian said:

domjg
And of course you have data to support that assertion, and it's not just your mental illness talking? 🤩

I know a few such folk alas.

[alec]

One point about Labour's £28bn issues; those who demanded Labour come forward with detailed policy proposals at an early stage should step back and appreciate why they didn't. The one policy with a big specific number attached is now causing them problems, because you can't lay out detailed plans way ahead of a GE, as you don't know what the precise fiscal and political positions will be afterwards.

Labour would have been better advised to state the actual initiatives they are sticking with, and then talking about attempting to ramp up green investment according to the conditions they find at the time.

A final, more depressing point; that this country is struggling to commit a paltry £5.5bn a year for 5 years towards net zero and the other green demands is pretty pathetic. The Conservatives should be ashamed about their absence of ambition, and the fact that they are deliberately targeting this essential area of investment as a political tool. The problems here emanate entirely from Sunak's right wing views on the environment, which are forcing Labour to respond negatively.

[steve]

Danny
Given that Danczuk sent the explicit sex messages to the 17 year old after his divorce from his second wife I Very much doubt he was 17.

While Danczuk's behaviour wasn't criminal it was entirely inconsistent with his prominent position in respect of re investigating claims of sexual impropriety against Westminster politicians.

[crossbat11]

Feb 2, 2024 7:10:09 GMT domjg said:

Feb 2, 2024 0:17:29 GMT oldnat said:

Oh dear, you are both ignorant and deluded by prejudice.


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There was something about beams and motes in eyes on here earlier...

Good job old Natterjack has successfully deleted all his many thousands of posts that he's made over the last 12 years. He seems to have taken his lead on this, as he nearly always has on just about everything, from the SNP leadership

The mass deletion took place shortly after the SNP slipped behind Labour in the polls and around the time of the disastrous, well, for Old Nat anyway, Rutherglen and Hamilton by election.

It's a shame because I wanted to question him about what he was saying at the time of the "Alex Salmond Affair "

What did he know, who was he talking to at the time, was he involved in the mysterious disappearance of the Salmond acolyte Peter Cairns .....

[steve]

I think if the SNP caravan had been plastered with their logo used for campaigning  and their Sponsor the National was printed on the side  and looked like a muller lite carton their wouldn't have been a "campergate"
But it didn't it was a bung

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[shevii]

Feb 1, 2024 22:19:56 GMT alec said:

steve - "Labour continues its transformation into brexittory lite"

I think this is being a bit unfair. I'd like to see as much investment in green infrastructure as we can manage, but from what I understand, Labour are committing to the specific policy promises they have already made, which don't amount to £28bn, but are refraining with continuing to hold to a fix monetary amount, without any defined plans against the cash promise.

I'm reasonably OK with the fact that Labour is trimming expectations, and politically it's probably a sensible move, given the state the public finances will be in.

Aren't you getting a bit into George Osborne territory here- "no money left", "maxxed out the credit card" etc.  And the Labour line seems to be investment from growth when there has been little to no meaningful growth in 15 years throughout Europe not just the UK.

I do get the other arguments being made about denting Tory attack lines but Green New Deal was being sold as a positive transformational investment that would pay for itself in jobs, lowering energy costs and making us more competitive as a country.  The state of the public finances are where they are because we haven't done things like this. To be fair to Blair there had been a lot of low level stuff going on in this area- I remember even our middle class household getting virtually free roof insulation and cavity wall insulation and there were good incentives for solar panels.

So yes it's always possible that Labour are ditching the promise because it's an electoral liability and polling shows spending government money on this is still not exactly popular but look at the "fiscal rules" and how likely is this really to be a smokescreen for similar levels of investment?

[alec]

shevii - I don't disagree. It's difficult.

I think it's worth pointing out that Osborne came out with his crap when we were still in the EU, debt was 80% of GDP, interest rates were at record lows, and there was no prospect in even the medium term that rates were going to rise off the floor they were on. His approach was totally stupid. Today it's different. Brexit just adds to the global position, the UK now has debt at c100% of GDP, the debt interest is far more costly, the medium term signals for both economic growth and interest rates are as clear as mud, and Sunak has lumbered the country with lots of variable rate debt that means servicing costs will very quickly spiral out of control if interest rates move against us.

So yes, while we absolutely need investment to bolster growth, and like every past experience of deficits, the main route out of them is growth, not spending cuts, Reeves is going to face a very tricky situation. I don't think it's any surprise at all that the IMF said this week we can't afford large tax cuts and the IFS have said Hunt's spending plans are works of fiction.

[steve]

Shevii
With the exception of 2008 and 2020 the European union has experienced economic growth in every year since 1990

[Danny]

Feb 2, 2024 1:39:52 GMT oldnat said:

Feb 2, 2024 0:24:00 GMT Danny said:

You get a different class of adverts on the streaming services.

Last week there were ads asking people to become teachers. This week ads asking them to become prison warders, saying the job is just like being a teacher. Can't think why the ad for teachers didn't say it was just like being a prison warder? Is there a relationship between falling support for a government which has been in power for 14 years, and presumably publicly funded adverts, appealing for teachers and warders because of massive shortages of both?

You talk, of course, about the government of England, and the public service provision there. There will, naturally, be problems of public financing elsewhere in the UK as well - due to the austerity planning that has been in place since 2010, and will continue under the next UKGov. The extent to which these difficulties have been mitigated by the devolved administrations in the UK varies, but it should not be assumed (on a UK site) that problems in England are suffered to the same extent outwith that jurisdiction.

Hmm. I once read an interesting analysis which argued whatever the British government does has little effect on the UK economy, compared to the effect of whatever is happening to the world economy. Essentially the government is largely powerless. But presumably the same applies one rung down comparing the effect of the Scottish government constrained within the actions of the British government.

But taking for example the question of doctors pay, where the Scottish government reached an agreement with its doctors. As I see it, paying more could only be done by the Scottish government in anticipation that the English government will do the same, and so the grant to the Scottish government will then increase and catch up. So it isnt funding forever, just a bridge until England eventually does the same, as it must if it wants to have any doctors. But con will not do this, it will have to await a labour government.  Core conservative voters, of course, can probably afford their own doctors!

Scotland will never have a functional self sustaining economy within its own borders so long as it stays part of the UK. Thats because of the draw to the capital, be it a small or big state. And so it will always be dependent on the recycling of money from the central state which therefore has all the power which matters. 

[alec]

A couple of fascinating covid snippets: In the US, the CDC has put out a new public information campaign aimed at encouraging uptake of boosters, with the headline " your next covid infection could be your worst". That's a very significant departure from the previous received wisdom that infections get less severe with repeat bouts, and at last the CDC has fallen into line with the science on this. The idea that you catch covid a few times and it ends up nothing worse than a cold was never validated by any real science, and there is plenty of evidence that it isn't true, so the change of messaging from the CDC is noteworthy.

There has also been a new study that found what's described as 'silent organ damage' is at least one organ system detected in 60% of long covid sufferers, and as estimates of the numbers suffering LC are routinely hitting the 30%+ mark, that suggests we could be in for a great deal of damaged individuals over time.

Finally, and most remarkably of all, the Daily mail is reporting that from April 1st adults in the UK will be able to buy a Novovax covid booster at pharmacies for £45. This is sudden and welcome, and gives another option for those who are finding the mRNA jabs to be too toxic to tolerate. The downside is that this probably means we've got another year or so to work through before the realisation dawns that mass repeat vaccination won't get us out of the mess we're in, but it does offer some short term relief for those over exposed because of the lack of choice of type of vaccine.

[Danny]

Feb 2, 2024 7:41:05 GMT alec said:

One point about Labour's £28bn issues; those who demanded Labour come forward with detailed policy proposals at an early stage should step back and appreciate why they didn't. The one policy with a big specific number attached is now causing them problems, because you can't lay out detailed plans way ahead of a GE, as you don't know what the precise fiscal and political positions will be afterwards.

What I remember from 1997 is that labour made no promises to increase spending that time either. However Blair chose a cause, 'Education, Education, Education'. This time round the economic situation is far worse than 1997, and after 14 years of conservative government, far worse thn they inherited in 2010...which was just recovering from a world recession....caused by the practices of world financial institutions selling fraudulently overvalued bonds.It is truly stunning how the banks were able to get away witht this, basically making a bet on markets to make profits in the good times, but when they lost those bets and markets turned bad, then being refinanced by the taxpayer, so they could go back to merrily making money for their owners. There was scope to change this, but con and other nations too chose not to. Instead they went back to the policy of handing assets to the private sector, firmly entrenched by Thatcher.

But my point is, whereas Blair felt able to promise to do something about education (and he did, admittedly con have reversed all that since), Starmer doesnt feel able to promise anything. Maybe he yet will, but I see nothing but unpaid bills awaiting the next government. Con will do nthing whatsoever to rebalance government finaces this year, just run up more debt for labour to deal with.

We left the EU, which was a dagger to the heart of the Uk economy. There was a step change downwards in UK growth when this happened.  But conservative policies have sytematically undermined government finances since Thatcher.  Such an irony that in 2019 labour virtually accepted conservative claims that labour had mismanaged the economy, whereas it was a golden era compared to the last 14 years.

[Danny]

Feb 2, 2024 7:52:42 GMT steve said:

While Danczuk's behaviour wasn't criminal it was entirely inconsistent with his prominent position in respect of re investigating claims of sexual impropriety against Westminster politicians.

Ah so the charge is hypocrisy? But that isnt what you first said, which was at least to suggest sexual impropriety. Isnt that too hypocrisy?

[Deleted]

Feb 2, 2024 9:41:33 GMT shevii said:

Feb 1, 2024 22:19:56 GMT alec said:

So yes it's always possible that Labour are ditching the promise because it's an electoral liability and polling shows spending government money on this is still not exactly popular but look at the "fiscal rules" and how likely is this really to be a smokescreen for similar levels of investment?

Its a bit ironic that the Labour Winter Business Conference 2024 was  headlined to give the Masters of Industry " clarity and certainty".

Reeves declined  ten times to answer whether she stood by the £28 billion , blaming damage to the economy under the Conservatives .

Starmer, speaking to the BBC  in Kingswood, near Bristol, said: “We will ramp up to that £28 billion during the second half of the parliament, subject to of course what the government has already allocated and subject to our fiscal rules.”

The  Guardian reported they would  commit to only about £10 billion of new money.

To me this looks like a hangover from the dark days of Labour's perceived reputation with public finances & spending. They still seem very cautious about a return of attack on that score. A caution I would have thought they can really ditch now with the recent history of this government.

There's an intriguing article  in today's Times by  Patrick Maguire though which suggests their sights are raised somewhat from the next GE-to  "winning once and then losing badly".

In short the article is about a LP delegation which went last month to Washington to talk to leading Dems about " infrastructure investment, housing and childcare.". Only to realise that Bidenomics' " $1 trillion in subsidies for industry in swing states, hundreds of thousands of new jobs and 3.3 per cent GDP growth  won’t deliver its namesake a second term."

The article lists the LOC leaders who have been studied and visited by Starmer's team , who now look less than certain to retain power-Scholz,Albanese & Trudeau. Starmer sent staff to campaign with Chris Hipkins, the losing Kiwi prime minister.

Maguire says that "Those shaping Starmer’s own electoral offer believe Biden has not done enough to redistribute wealth. Impressive growth figures mean little, they argue, unless workers feel the benefit. Instead it is really only American executives and shareholders who are feeling flush with the fruits of state stimulus and many billions more from private investors."

He draws attention to the Conservative opposition in Canada ( where Kim Campbell in 1993, lost all but two of her seats.) .
Pierre Poilievre says things like "“When the people who build our houses cannot afford to live in them, we have a fundamentally unjust economy, my friends.” -and has a 15% poll lead.

ie- Housing will be Starmer's key policy.

[Deleted]

I think the farmers must have frayed EU leader's tempers in  Brussels :-



www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-68168498



A draft FT deal with Mercosur was being discussed :-


Sanchez said it is " key in the gepolitical and economic relationship we have with such an important continent"



Macron said signing it is " out of the question"



Sholz called on the Commission to remove objections to it saying " I am a fan of FTAs "

[Deleted]

In the Maguire article I mentioned he name checks the LP candidates who went to Washington and say they are " ones to watch" They are :-

"Zubir Ahmed, the consultant cardiologist from Glasgow; Lucy Rigby, the City solicitor in Northampton; Kanishka Narayan, the Old Etonian scholarship boy and civil servant in the Vale of Glamorgan; Kirsty McNeill, the charity executive and adviser to Gordon Brown in Midlothian; Hamish Falconer, son of the New Labour grandee Charlie and a Foreign Office diplomat in Lincoln. "

[steve]

Danny
Wtf are you talking about?
I had no allegation at all just pointed out that your analogy with two youngsters sending each other sexy texts was total bollocks.

[steve]

The fact that The traitor has been fined $85,000,000 for defaming the women who he sexually assaulted appears to have had breakthrough

More women said they would support Biden over Trump in this latest survey, with 58 percent backing Biden and 36 percent backing Trump. Last month, the Quinnipiac poll found 53 percent of women supported the incumbent Democrat, compared to 41 percent for the Republican challenger.

Men apparently are less concerned about voting for a rapist

The numbers were relatively unchanged for men — 53 percent of men said they’d vote for Trump and 42 percent chose Biden in the latest poll, compared to 51 percent for Trump and 41 percent for Biden in December.

However this does mean in the most recent polling President Biden has opened a 6% lead over the spray tanned lunatic.

[shevii]

Feb 2, 2024 9:59:49 GMT steve said:

Shevii
With the exception of 2008 and 2020 the European union has experienced economic growth in every year since 1990

GDP is always open to interpretation and usually valued in US Dollars so subject to exchange rate changes as well as there being good GDP and bad GDP on things likes tax raising and standard of living however...

EU GDP in 2008 was USD 16,295bn .  EU GDP in 2022 was USD 16,746bn.  That's a total 3% over 15 years regardless of how many ups and downs they had during that period.  UK is similar if not a bit worse depending on your start dates- ie flat since 2007, small increase on 2008.

I'm not criticising the EU or anyone here- just making the point that any economic policy that's based on growth is flawed wishful thinking if we're simply comparing a bad government (Tories) to a better one.  Yes we've had the financial crash and Covid and Ukraine so you can always take time periods to prove anything if you start at highs and end at lows, which is perhaps what I've done to some extent, but perhaps there's something more fundamental going on in European economies that makes growth questionable where parts of the world that have more natural resources or cheaper labour haven't experienced the same stagnation.  We don't bounce back from recessions like we used to.

[Deleted]

Feb 2, 2024 11:26:11 GMT shevii said:

Feb 2, 2024 9:59:49 GMT steve said:

 perhaps there's something more fundamental going on in European economies that makes growth questionable where parts of the world that have more natural resources or cheaper labour haven't experienced the same stagnation.  We don't bounce back from recessions like we used to.

Yes-perhaps there is.

And if there is it will have political consequences.

ps-its not too difficult to see a major factor. Europe fed off exports to Chinese and imported Chinese low inflation for years. This is changeing :-

www.wsj.com/world/china/chinas-growth-slows-to-three-decade-low-excluding-pandemic-93d61487

[robbiealive]

Feb 2, 2024 7:10:09 GMT domjg said:

Feb 2, 2024 0:17:29 GMT oldnat said:

Oh dear, you are both ignorant and deluded by prejudice.


View Attachment

There was something about beams and motes in eyes on here earlier...

Homonym. Same spelling & sound but different meaning. Beam
Homophone Same sound, different spelling, different meaning. Mote, Moat, Read & Red, 
Homograph. Same spelling, different sound, different meaning. Row, Sow but also Read & Read 

Always have to look this up. English language designed to baffle language learners. Tho in certain other respects very easy to learn. 

crossbat11 Nats on here somewhat coy about their internal problems & the interminable police investigation.
But I suppose if you spend yr time attacking British Nationalist parties it leaves little time for self-reflection.

[pete1]

If I was an M.P. who felt I had to resign because of imminent threats to my life, I would act straight away.
I think Mr. Freer is very brave for deciding to delay his decision for several months, .... unless I am missing something.....

[alec]

One to keep an eye on; GPs have rejected the government's pay off of a 1.9% rise.

It's not difficult to understand why, and given that GP services are under intense stress, this offer seems remarkably poorly framed. Strike action is already being discussed within the GP sector, apparently. Disastrous.

[athena]

I think there are two main ways of looking at Lab's backtracking on its green investment pledge. Most voters won't register the detail, so the message they take will be (a) when tough choices have to be made green issues aren't a priority or (b) Lab is prepared to be fiscally responsible and pragmatic. I suppose that some will read it as an indication that Starmer doesn't keep his promises, but at this stage (before the election's been called) I think most people give opposition parties plenty of latitude, they're much less forgiving of politicians who go back on the spirit of the manifesto with which they won an election. It's been clear for a long time that Lab isn't targeting green-minded voters and potential Con-Lab switchers will need plenty of reassurance that the Treasury is safe in Starmer and Reeves' hands, because they don't have a track record and memories of the Truss-Kwarteng craziness.

The catastrophe is that there just aren't enough voters who see urgent action on climate as the non-negotiable, in the way that fiscal responsibility is a sine qua non for a lot of people. Lab and Con have set targets, but in practice both of them are taking the approach of spending what they think the country can afford and seeing where that gets us (nowhere near). I think we have to take the targets much more seriously - they weren't plucked out of the air, they're derived from the evidence we have about how carbon emissions are affecting global climate. We desperately need an honest debate about the real costs of transition to net zero and what a sustainable future will look like, but just like with the real cost of restoring public services, we're not getting it from out politicians. It's hard to avoid concluding that democracy is broken.

I suspect part of Lab's mistake was to peddle the myth of imminent green prosperity. We've underinvested for so long that massive investment is needed simply to catch up with our competitors (our creaking, obsolescing infrastructure is a terrible drag on productivity) and the pay-off for investing in the transition to net zero is a long way off, if it materialises at all. There may be some early mover advantage, but for the rest of this century I think we'll struggle to offset the costs of the impact of climate change. My guess is that although the geographical and sectoral distribution of jobs and production will change during transition, it won't - over the medium to long term - result in growth.

[Deleted]

Feb 2, 2024 11:51:49 GMT alec said:

Strike action is already being discussed within the GP sector, apparently.

Assumed they were all on strike already…

[athena]

Feb 2, 2024 11:46:05 GMT pete1 said:

If I was an M.P. who felt I had to resign because of imminent threats to my life, I would act straight away.
I think Mr. Freer is very brave for deciding to delay his decision for several months, .... unless I am missing something.....

The attack on his office (which seems to have been the last straw) was on Christmas Eve, I think. A month to mull a major decision seems reasonable. Everyone's different, but I wouldn't want to make that decision in the immediate aftermath of having my place of work torched - I wouldn't trust myself to make the right choice.