Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 18, 2023 13:39:12 GMT
Danny I suspect only one of us has been the victim of an attempted murder and seen their friend murdered next to them. Lucky for you its me not you. The fact that I knew more or less who did it didn't give me carte Blanche to murder those in their proximity who held no responsibility. Maybe you should refrain from subjects you have no knowledge of. Well of course not. its not at all comparable to living in Gaza, all that happened to you was the loss of a friend and colleague in the line of duty. I dont know the circumstances and maybe international politics intervened, but I assume you believe the forces of justice in the Uk will or did pursue the killer. Thats never going to happen for a dead gazan. The killers will be back next week. They have taken your home, They are quite likely to take your actual family as well as multiple collegues. They will destroy your entire country, entire way of life. No one will help you or you displaced compatriots. Gazans are stuck in an oversized prison camp with the Israelis picking them off. Mostly they are dying from neglect not bullets. Its a concentration camp, a ghetto, just the same sort of thing the Germans used for jews and the british used for Boers in South Africa.
I have no doubt Netanyahu sees his lifes work as ridding Israel of the Arab problem. And I dont necessarily disagree with him, if I was in his position with his life experience of trying to defend a nation always under threat, then I would want the problem solved. Maybe even the Gazans want the problem solved. They want somewhere they can live out their lifes in freedom, not in an Israeli prison camp. Back post WW2 the UN tried to solve this problem by dividing the territory, giving a big chunk of what had been arab controlled land to Israel. But since then there has been no even handed attempt to enforce that division, rather Israel had grown and simply taken more and more land, and is stil doing so. Putin wants to do the same. There are plenty of others.
Not that Egypt is interested in helping the Gazans either. No one is willing to give them a home. What would you really do against an invader who took your home, killed some or maybe all your family, will never let you live freely, keeps doing this, will do the same to your children? Maybe you too will come to think that if the only thing within your power to do is a sneak raid over the border and machine gun a party, then at lest it will teach them some kind of a lesson. When Israel retaliates, maybe finally the world will notice and feel compelled to act to help your people. But if not, well at least you go down fighting.
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Post by mercian on Oct 18, 2023 13:41:02 GMT
Two of the most important technological developments in the history of humankind were fire and the wheel. I understand that neither required the advent of capitalism to be developed!  I have it on good authority that Ug, one of my ancestors, used to charge for rides on his wheel. Usual fee was a slice of mammoth meat. |
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Post by johntel on Oct 18, 2023 13:41:14 GMT
johntel Objectively it should matter whether it's true or not but the reality is it's immaterial, given that Israel has already killed or injured thousands of innocent people already and many were in the hospital effectively because Israel put them there as a result of injury or fear people in the region are going to blame Israel any way.They have some justification. It does matter to me though Steve, I'd like to know the truth (such as it's possible to know) before I make a judgement. Hamas set out to kill completely innocent civilians, in a barbaric way. I know that to be true. Israel claims to be targeting 'military targets' but accepts that there will be 'collateral damage'. I'm inclined to believe that to be true, though it's severely tested by the blockades they have imposed. We have two diametrically opposed accounts of what happened at the hospital and if it is proved one way or the other it will inevitably colour my judgement of future statements by both sides. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 18, 2023 13:44:25 GMT
We have to be honest and admit that it is a big problem for Labour. Starmer's rather rash comments at the beginning of the matter and the continuing lack of balance is alienating Muslim voters. They are a group that have historically supported Labour in large numbers, whereas in 2015 (pre-Corbyn and when Labour had a Jewish leader) the much smaller number of Jewish voters were already 70%+ Conservative in line with their social characteristics. A more nuanced approach would have been better, condemning Hamas but not giving Israel a blank cheque. www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/17/labour-leadership-meets-councillors-after-resignations-over-middle-east-crisisYes, but I think that Starmer was swayed by another related issue. The level of anti-Semitism in the Labour Party under Corbyn's leadership (even if he personally was blameless) was significant. It really wasnt. Corbyn was himself mostly attacked for supporting arabs in palestine, which is what Starmer is trying not to do. For making this distinction between attacks against jews simply because they are jewish, and against israel and indeed its citizens supporting the actions of its government, for what they have ben doing to the former owners of the lands they now occupy. Aside from that, I seem to remember some past polling arguing that the conservative party is significantly more antisemitic than labour. But as ever, its labour which worries about this sort of issue of personal rights. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 18, 2023 13:49:41 GMT
I'm mindful of this in my commentary on covid numbers. While three thousand additional beds occupied with covid seems minor against 90,000 beds in total, it's a hefty chunk of the 14,000 buffer that the system needs. So either we reduce elective admissions to maintain optimal outcomes, slowing efforts to cut waiting times, or we accept worsening clinical outcomes all round. You love to go on about this, but how many beds are occupied by people with other colds? How many flu? and so on. And do any of those statistics matter at all, because as far as I am aware hardly anyone is being admitted simply because they have covid? If they are, maybe you should explain your argument better, because you havnt presented anything to demonstrate it is the case. Theres a million people in the UK with covid (1.3 million, I just checked, health-study.zoe.com/data) and have been about thatnumber for the last two years. Of course there are plenty in hospital with covid when the whole nation has it. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2023 13:52:06 GMT
Israel claims to be targeting 'military targets' but accepts that there will be 'collateral damage'. I'm inclined to believe that to be true, though it's severely tested by the blockades they have imposed. A targeting made difficult because Hamas launches rockets at Israel from sites deliberately placed in civilian areas close to "sensitive" sites. Civilian areas peopled by the community they are supposed to be governing . Civilians who just might have begun to benefit from the normalisation of relations between Israel and Arab States. A normalisation which Hamas brought to a standstill by its October 7 action. An outcome welcomed ( ?initiated) by Iran. Agree that the blockade is unrelated to the search for Hamas targets, and does smack of revenge rather than security. |
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Post by Old Southendian on Oct 18, 2023 13:52:43 GMT
Two of the most important technological developments in the history of humankind were fire and the wheel. I understand that neither required the advent of capitalism to be developed! I was going to take another detour on those thoughts of the benefits of capitalism.
It has been observed that wars have been a very effective incentive for innovation and development. Does that mean we should welcome war as the best driver of future technologies? I hope that few would say yes to that at this moment, or any other.
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Post by alec on Oct 18, 2023 14:02:25 GMT
Danny - "You love to go on about this, but how many beds are occupied by people with other colds? How many flu?" Ever thought about looking for the data yourself? assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/652cfc7e6b6fbf0014b75691/Weekly-flu-and-COVID-19-surveillance-report-week-41.pdfFlu admissions for the latest week (Wk 40) were 0.13/100,000, marginally up from 0.11 the previous week. Admissions for RSV were 0.49/100,000, down slightly from 0.50. Admissions for Covid were 6.13/100,000, up from 5.67 the previous week. So covid admissions were 10 times greater than flu and RSV combined, and the weekly rise in covid admissions was >3 times greater than the total flu admissions number.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 18, 2023 14:02:45 GMT
*** ADMIN *** I see that several of you are calling on me, particularly with regard to one particular post. I am considering my response which will be made this evening, if not before. Also, this evening, I will start a new polling thread in advance of tomorrow's by-elections. I see that Mr Poppy has mentioned a new poll. The last one I can see is the recent Deltapoll one. Trevor, please can you point me in the direction of the most recent poll that you referred to??!? I gave the link in my previous reply ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/106251/threadbut you can also check: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#National_poll_resultsIn case I was unclear then I don't think it makes any difference which poll is used to start a new thread (or who starts it). I didn't make the rules about the format to use and was surprised that on two occasions some people have been so petty as to make a huge fuss over who followed the existing (soon to be 'old') rules on who can start a thread and what format was required for the title. I did make a suggestion about an 'amnesty' on flaming and a further request for clarity on your rule #2 - both of which I respect you don't want to do. So start a new thread/don't start a new thread; use Deltapoll/More in Common numbers for the title or change your format rule so it's a date perhaps? Whatever., I'll continue to use the features of proboards to ignore some people if there is no amnesty on offer. FWIW then I suggested you use Deltapoll noting the use of the unofficial convention of adding a smile/laugh/wink emoji when saying something in jest:
"However, the Deltapoll poll showing one of the highest LAB leads for a while might be better received by those of a petty nature  " |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 18, 2023 14:02:53 GMT
Capitalism has also produced the fantastic advances in living standards around the world, and all the marvellous inventions that have improved everyone's lives. If states controlled everything would we have fantastically powerful mobile phones, AI, sophisticated cars for whoever wants one and so on? e.g. the Trabant car (from Wikipedia) "Manufactured by a state monopoly, acquiring a Trabant took about ten years. East German buyers were placed on a waiting-list of up to thirteen years. Almost as bad as trying to get a new land-line from BT when it was a state monopoly! It's true that some people have become ludicrously rich, bur some people always have. I can't vouch for the veracity of this list (it's a little out of date because Bill Gates is the only modern capitalist in the list) but it's interesting that the top 4 were ancient rulers and number 5 is Stalin! Obviously we can argue over exactly who should be on the list but the point is that capitalism isn't the only system that produces absurdly wealthy people, and as it tends to go alongside democracy, ordinary people get much more benefit than they would under an autocracy. EDIT: Forgot the link! money.com/the-10-richest-people-of-all-time-2/Communist Europe was significantly business as usual for the russian empire, under new management. The Orwellian animal farm, where the pigs became indistinguishable from the Humans they had turfed out. Putin now is an absolute monarch, sure he has to deal with various power blocks, but its more like a traditional monarchy than a western democracy. The key part of western democracies was a revolt post WW2 against their traditional ruling class, compelling wealth redistribution and thus the luxuries we all enjoy today. That was not at all the situation in Victorian England, where was it Dizraeli wrote books highlighting the plight of the poor? Plus certain individuals who disagreed with this personal wealth, such as the quakers, cadburys, sufragettes, who however were bucking the trend of Victorian Britain. Its not capitalism which gave us all these luxuries, but civil disobedience requiring a socialist approach to government. Using the power of the state to compel distribution, instead of using it to amass wealth in the hands of the few, which is the more normal model historically. Which is what has been happening again in the last 40 years of trickle down economics. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 18, 2023 14:19:50 GMT
Danny "opening fire on your enemy any way you can?" Rather than write another essay, please answer a straight question, do you think Hammas was justified in the cold blooded and deliberate murder of babies? A yes or no will do Its not a yes or no answerable question. I think almost any human will do this if the circumstances are provocative enough. I do not blame anyone for reacting to such circumstances, either the Hamas side or the Israeli side. I have no idea what was the background of the individuals who conducted the raid into Israel, to make a judgement why they did what they did. I would assume however, they were some of those most affected by what has happened to the people currently living in Gaza. Most likely, what has already been done to their own families by Israel. Lets put this a different way. The reason atom bombs were dropped upon Japan and have not been used elsewhere since was because there was no risk of retaliation in kind. All the children and babies killed that time were deemed justifiable deaths to bring the wider war to a conclusion. But I dont really recall much historically dividing the local victims between the 'wholly innocent' babies and the soldiers home on leave, this angst is modern armchair living which has forgotten the realities of war. The US has since continued to make atom bombs, as have we, and we profess we would use them if necessary and advantageous, even though it would certainly mean killing more children and babies. I take it the current government believes this cold blooded baby killing would be acceptable in the national interest? |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 18, 2023 14:25:11 GMT
Most of the Stroud councillors must have quit for a different reason then? 7 is a pretty small % and IMO Starmer+co. have modified their language slightly - although obviously not enough for some people. Anyway, whilst folks might not like the source then someone is making the effort to track the LAB numbers...
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 18, 2023 14:30:56 GMT
Also a list with some MPs on it. One CON MP on there but due to 'partisan bias' then I doubt many other CON MPs will add their name even if they agree (possibly similar issue for SNP and LDEM - who would probably have preferred it if they had put one of their own as the lead MP?)
PS Cleverly answered that specific question in HoC when it was raised by an SNP MP and some others (IIRC??). It is possible to ask even if you expect the answer to be 'no'.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 18, 2023 14:43:56 GMT
Re the elections tomorrow, for context Tamworth is currently the 57th safest Tory seat
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Post by shevii on Oct 18, 2023 14:50:26 GMT
If you went with Deltapoll then given this thread started with an outlier we could have Andrew Neil on saying- you were only 10 points behind and now it's 20!
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 18, 2023 15:06:32 GMT
If you went with Deltapoll then given this thread started with an outlier we could have Andrew Neil on saying- you were only 10 points behind and now it's 20! Why not use the last YG one with a 23pt LAB lead. Could then also say "a gain of 13pts, unlucky for some" |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 18, 2023 15:18:19 GMT
The damage at the hospital doesn't seem consistent with the original reports of massive damage.
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Post by Mark on Oct 18, 2023 15:20:26 GMT
Mr Poppy - My apologies. When I saw your last post, I had scripting turned off, which has the side effect of hiding/blocking Twitter URL's until you hit reply/edit, so, erroneously thought you had mentioned the poll without linking to it. Quite a lapse on my part. I'll likely use that one unless a new poll is published tonight.
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Oct 18, 2023 15:25:24 GMT
Two of the most important technological developments in the history of humankind were fire and the wheel. I understand that neither required the advent of capitalism to be developed! I have it on good authority that Ug, one of my ancestors, used to charge for rides on his wheel. Usual fee was a slice of mammoth meat. The most important development though, was of course polling |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 18, 2023 15:35:39 GMT
Danny - "You love to go on about this, but how many beds are occupied by people with other colds? How many flu?" assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/652cfc7e6b6fbf0014b75691/Weekly-flu-and-COVID-19-surveillance-report-week-41.pdfFlu admissions for the latest week (Wk 40) were 0.13/100,000, marginally up from 0.11 the previous week. Admissions for RSV were 0.49/100,000, down slightly from 0.50. Admissions for Covid were 6.13/100,000, up from 5.67 the previous week. So covid admissions were 10 times greater than flu and RSV combined, and the weekly rise in covid admissions was >3 times greater than the total flu admissions number. Thank you for the link. I see the link records approx 21 million cases of covid since the epidemic began. Zoe are reporting about 1.3 million current cases, but over the last two years it has probably averaged 1.5 million, with I believe a onetime quoted duration of ten days per case? But lets say two weeks, so over 2 years thats about 78 million cases. The official total therefore missed most of them, and that before counting any cases from 2020-late 21. So maybe thats 100-150 million cases of covid in reality so far? About 2 each? Some here have reported more than that! Zoe of course only record self reported cases, so if you had it so mild you didnt notice, they didnt count it. Theres a fascinating graph from 'Respiratory Datamart' (fancy name for a panel of laboratories reporting their test results to government. They are testing for SARS-CoV-2, influenza, rhinovirus, parainfluenza, adenovirus, human metapneumovirus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)) which divides cases of flu and cases of covid by agegroups. Its very interesting how the most likely to have covid are 65+, at maybe x3 the rate for under 14s with frequency falling with age. While for flu the 65+ are the least likely to have it and 5-44 the most likely at nearly x2 the under 4s or 45+. So actually there is a distinct difference in the age groups affected. I dont know anything about prevalence of flu in the community, but zoe have always reported the opposite age profile to that observed here in lab tested patients, ie its the young who get most covid, but history does indeed tell us that despite this its the old who get the serious cases. The age breakdowns for the cumulative total of recorded cases for the entire epidemic again has most cases amongst the old, which again suggests in reality the old had the cases which came to medical attention and so got recorded. The young, who however also got locked down, didnt get seriously ill.
About their results they say "Most testing reported in Respiratory DataMart is done in patients with a clinical indication for a respiratory virus test. Historically, many SARS-CoV-2 tests have been done as part of admissions screening." They don't comment whether admissions screening is still the most common reason for giving someone a covid test. If so, then its going to generate lots of people recorded as admitted to hospital with covid, where that STILL isnt the reason for their admission. All you had to do in the past to count as a covid admission to hospital was arrive there for some other reason and be tested positive additionally. Has this changed at all?
GP 'influenza like illness' (ili) consultations seem to be about normal for the time of year, so thats including those due to covid presumably. If so, then it might be seen to imply covid has in fact replaced flu and other diseases and carved out a 'market share' for itself. Which begs the question whether although hospital admission because of covid have increased, whether admissions for other similar illnesses have decreased?
Theres data from 'sentinel swabbing' ( a random sample of people with ILI). which includes testing for a number of diseases, and interestingly found from jan-march 23 there were more cases of 'other corona viruses' than 'sars covid 2'.
Anyway, these figures report as you say, a significant number of covid admissions to hospital. But from looking through I am unclear how the total number of ili admissions now stands compared to historic levels, so has covid simply replaced other diseases, and whether there has been any change in the procedure for reporting a covid admission, which has always counted any admission for anything else but where the patient tests positive subsequently.
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Post by alec on Oct 18, 2023 15:41:15 GMT
Danny - "They don't comment whether admissions screening is still the most common reason for giving someone a covid test. If so, then its going to generate lots of people recorded as admitted to hospital with covid, where that STILL isnt the reason for their admission." There is no routine testing for covid on admission now. Hasn't been since April. I love how you lean into the data when you're trying to make a point, but deny all the monitoring systems have any merit whatsoever till you're blue in the face when you want to pretend there was an unseen covid outbreak in Hastings in 2019. How very danny.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 18, 2023 15:41:52 GMT
I have it on good authority that Ug, one of my ancestors, used to charge for rides on his wheel. Usual fee was a slice of mammoth meat. The most important development though, was of course polling That and Morris Dancing |
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Post by alec on Oct 18, 2023 15:45:45 GMT
A good example here of how medics just get some things completely and totally wrong, on a systemic basis - www.theguardian.com/society/2023/oct/18/naga-munchetty-i-was-failed-and-gaslit-by-nhs-despite-debilitating-periods-and-symptomsIn this case it was a female reproductive system condition, and it's quite incredible that this level of pain and suffering over a long period was just waved away. "“When I spoke about adenomyosis on my Radio 5 Live programme, GPs got in touch to say they had never head of the condition, never been taught about it and didn’t know how to diagnose it,” said Munchetty." People should not assume that the NHS and wider medical establishment knows what it's doing. It's ability to update it's own learning is very poor, and it can take decades for new knowledge to work through to good, widely applied frontline delivery. This is the problem we have with covid. The vast majority of doctors lack proper training in areas like evolutionary biology, basic aerosol hygiene techniques, long term viral impacts and how the immune system functions. That's why many of them are getting covid completely wrong. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 18, 2023 16:01:58 GMT
Redfield Wilton Wales Westminster
Find the lib-dems numbers difficult to believe
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Post by graham on Oct 18, 2023 16:03:35 GMT
Re the elections tomorrow, for context Tamworth is currently the 57th safest Tory seat Whilst Tamworth fell to the Tories as early as 2010, its subsequent massive swing to the Tories was very much in line with what was seen in traditional Labour Red Wall seats in 2017 and 2019 - particularly in the Midlands and along the East coast. The factors likely responsible for the shift - Brexit - Corbyn - Johnson - are no longer relevant, and it will be interesting to see how far that huge swing now unwinds. Will the Tories match the 37% polled here in 2005? |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 18, 2023 16:03:43 GMT
The most important development though, was of course polling That and Morris Dancing An Anglo-centric comment that should rightly enrage our Celtic contingent. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 18, 2023 16:14:58 GMT
Two of the most important technological developments in the history of humankind were fire and the wheel. I understand that neither required the advent of capitalism to be developed! I have it on good authority that Ug, one of my ancestors, used to charge for rides on his wheel. Usual fee was a slice of mammoth meat. We've done this one before. Ug might have been a jolly enterprising chap, but what he's doing is not capitalism. People bought and sold and traded for thousands of years before capitalism got going in the late middle ages/Renaissance (at the earliest; some would go as late as the 18th century). |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 18, 2023 16:17:40 GMT
Mr Poppy - My apologies. When I saw your last post, I had scripting turned off, which has the side effect of hiding/blocking Twitter URL's until you hit reply/edit, so, erroneously thought you had mentioned the poll without linking to it. Quite a lapse on my part. I'll likely use that one unless a new poll is published tonight. No need to apologise, although AFAIK then colin was the only one who apologised for the 'fuss' from the last time a new thread was started (and I gave an apology for following the rules, stating I would not start any main threads in the future*) Whilst it is UKPR2 then could use some polling from one of the devolved nations just to mix it up a bit. I hear there is a new Welsh poll that jib will find very 'tasty', but it might go down like a bucket of sick with some other people - although why some folks get so vexed by whichever poll is used to start a new thread when the old one is getting past it's sell by date I dunno * See: ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/103646/threadPS Another suggestion I made, which seems to have created a very predictable response given people know my view, was to re-run the poll on " What should the board look like". I hear the main thread is seeing a return of the Covid wars but then I wear a mask to protect myself from being infected (which does make the site much quicker and easier to read so no complaints from moi if you want to go for "one thread to rue them all" ) |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 18, 2023 16:24:13 GMT
Re the elections tomorrow, for context Tamworth is currently the 57th safest Tory seat Whilst Tamworth fell to the Tories as early as 2010, its subsequent massive swing to the Tories was very much in line with what was seen in traditional Labour Red Wall seats in 2017 and 2019 - particularly in the Midlands and along the East coast. The factors likely responsible for the shift - Brexit - Corbyn - Johnson - are no longer relevant, and it will be interesting to see how far that huge swing now unwinds. Will the Tories match the 37% polled here in 2005?Well it's "expectation management" time and FWIW then Betfair currently has LAB at about 75% likelihood to win Tamworth in a 2horse race where they are the clear ABCON/protest vote (ie CON are abut 25% likelihood) So the 'surprise' for that one would be CON 'hold'. I stuck my neck out with a prediction for Mid.Beds already but I'll take a crack at Tamworth as well: LAB: 50% (+/-5%) CON: 40% (+/-5%) Others: <10% IE If CON did win then we'd be into a 'rounding' issue (IMO of course!) With no one from Rejoin.EU or Gina Miller's copycat party then I can be more specific on a subtotal: Stay Out 100%, Rejoin.EU 0% |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Oct 18, 2023 16:25:12 GMT
The most important development though, was of course polling That and Morris Dancing have you got any Polling to show that Neil? |
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