30-SEP 2023 : LAB 39% / CON 29% / LDM 12% / GRN 7%

[mercian]

Oct 17, 2023 16:11:29 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Oct 17, 2023 11:32:29 GMT Mark said:

*** ADMIN ***


Therefore, should any member support things staying as they are (IE any member can start a new polling thread), or if any member has, away from the heat of the moment, previously supported the change, but since changed their mind, there is still time to voice your opinion.

All a ok with me, but please oh please can you set us a separate thread for the Rugby World Cup - its even longer than the kickieball world cup.

I'm glad you are so interested. Personally I think Smith should have shimmied that tackle from Jones and gone on the blindside. Is that the right sort of lingo?  😁 Oh, and caused a ruck or maul because he is one of the few people on the planet to know the difference.

[mercian]

pjw1961
re your magnum opus on political betting. It's wasted here. Get it published. You could make a bit of money.

[Danny]

Oct 17, 2023 21:55:58 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

The basic and obvious fact is that Israel have taken an enormous risk with their original position of initially clearly being victims worthy of huge sympathy by responding as they have done.

surely 50 years history of this war shows that in the end the US will continue to support Israel for the joint reasons of the jewish block vote within the US and US foreign policy requiring an ally in this region, especially one willing to go to war with arabs.

So not a risk at all. The conflict will result in fewer arabs plus more territory directly controlled by israel. So something between a modest and major gain for israel. Incorporating the gaza strip will tidy up israeli borders nicely.

The trick will be to force egypt to accept millions of refugees, so israel needs to persuade biden to force egypt to take them. He can probably promise them something by way of a carrot. While israel applies the stick of starving them publicly saying its egypts fault for closing the border.

I was wondering why israel has bombed the crossing, but perhaps its because egypt currently will only allow foreigners trapped in gaza across. Whereas israel would prefer them to stay trapped creating more international pressure, until egypt is forced to allow across everyone.

[Danny]

Oct 17, 2023 23:12:16 GMT lefthanging said:

it makes no strategic sense whatsoever for Israel to bomb a hospital - but I'll reserve judgment until we have more of the facts.

Whatever the source, what a senseless waste of life.

israel needs gazans to leave their homes but currently many are sheltering in hospitals. Israel therfore needs to persuade them its safer to leave. Whoever is responsible, this does help israel.

[athena]

Should anyone be interested, this podcast (other podcast providers) offers a whistlestop tour of the energy geopolitics of conflict in the Middle East. The format isn't a patch on the old Talking Politics podcast, but I think Prof Thompson knows her stuff when it comes to the economics of oil.

[Danny]

Inflation figures this morning bad news for Sunak. Although as predicted food prices continued to fall, this was conterbalanced by recent rises in petrol prices. Autumn surge in energy prices prevented nflation falling back.

Not to forget the bad news yesterday that wage rises exceeded the inflation rate. Which means those wage costs will be passed on over the next year in higher end product prices.

[steve]

"it makes no strategic sense whatsoever for Israel to bomb a hospital - but I'll reserve judgment until we have more of the facts."

it makes no strategic sense for the Israeli forces to bomb schools, kill aid workers kill or maim thousands of children and attack refugee columns in the areas they said would be safe and kill over a dozen journalists

But they've done all those things already who ever carried out the barbaric attack on a hospital is to be condemned , given the IDF's actions to date it's entirely consistent.

[Danny]

There is an interesting quirk to the theory of just war that it is assymetric in terms of what two sides are each allowed to do. The general idea seems to be you should not take any action more extreme than circumstances force you to do. So, consider the example of two nations, one of which is smaller, weaker, entirely contained in a prison surrounded by its enemy which controls all goods entering and leaving. The smaller country organises a raid where it attacks the larger, kills civilians where it can, but then is defeated. It can justify this as just war, because it was the only way the smaller nation was at all able to hurt the larger one. But in response the larger is not permitted to do the same. It has at its disposal all sorts of other options, and in fact it was already using the most obvious one. Simply put up fences and have enough border guards to prevent incursions. It has no justification to go out and kill opponents in revenge, because it always had the upper hand, it was simply careless in applying its overwhelming might.

So in a nutshell, Hamas is justified in organising raids into Israel to kill anyone it can find. Israel is not justified in retaliating in kind. Thats because israel is already winning and in control. Its real problem is that it doesnt regard being permanent prison jailer as a satisfactory outcome and wants to close the prison completely.

[steve]

"So in a nutshell, Hamas is justified in organising raids into Israel to kill anyone it can find. "

Seek immediate psychiatric help.

Mark can you do something about posts like this?

[Danny]

Oct 18, 2023 6:25:59 GMT steve said:

"it makes no strategic sense whatsoever for Israel to bomb a hospital - but I'll reserve judgment until we have more of the facts."

it makes no strategic sense for the Israeli forces to bomb schools, kill aid workers kill or maim thousands of children and attack refugee columns in the areas they said would be safe and kill over a dozen journalists

Journalists report what is happening. Whether or not this was simply an accident, it is to Israels advantage if there are fewer reports what is going on.

Obviously its in Israel's interest to say everyone is safe, thats just denying they are doing anything wrong.

The stated goal is for non combatants to evacuate the north so that the Israeli army can then move in and defeat Hamas soldiers. The probable goal is to evict the entire population from the area and then incorporate the land into Israel proper. But either way, its in Israel's interest for the people to leave. At the moment people are sheltering in hospitals, schools, etc. In order to persuade them to leave, they must be convinced it is dangerous to stay in those places.

With regard to raids in the south or on refugees, I couldnt comment on details of specific raids, but they might have specific military targets we dont know anything about. But I suggested why they might attack the exit into Egypt, because that would only allow exit to foreign nationals, and having these as hostages trapped in Gaza might yet be quite advantageous. Israel needs Egypt to open that border to all Gazans, and it will be easier to get this to happen if foreigners are amongst the trapped and starving people.

I noticed above mention of an 8 mile buffer zone on the Egyptian side of the border? I can quite see the refgees ending up there, and then the world's problem will be where to rehome them permanently. And how long will it be before someone starts arguing that since Britain started this whole process of evicting arabs from Palestine, we should be taking them?

[neilj]

Oct 18, 2023 6:41:33 GMT steve said:

"So in a nutshell, Hamas is justified in organising raids into Israel to kill anyone it can find. "

Seek immediate psychiatric help.

Mark can you do something about posts like this?

Agree, truly appalling to try and justify the cold blooded murder of babies
Two wrongs most certainly do not make a right

[Danny]

Oct 18, 2023 6:41:33 GMT steve said:

"So in a nutshell, Hamas is justified in organising raids into Israel to kill anyone it can find. "

Seek immediate psychiatric help.

Mark can you do something about posts like this?

Whats should he do? All I am doing is pointing out the logic of the situation. You want to bury your head in the sand and pretend matters are otherwise than they are? In the final resort, humans always resort to desperate and extreme measures. The moral argument bears heaviest on those who are not in such extreme situations. The moral argument says Israel has to put up with what Gazans do, not least because if the situations was reversed Israel would do exactly the same (as is indeed unrolling day by day, even though they are in a pretty safe situation in reality. What happened was down to their own complacency, you dont put a tiger in a cage and then forget to properly lock the door.)

If I am wrong about the theory of just war, please explain my mistake.

[Mr Poppy]

Disappointing 'unchanged' in headline inflation but of note...

"3. Notable movements in prices

The identical annual inflation rates in August and September 2023 principally reflected offsetting contributions across four divisions. Large downward effects from food and non-alcoholic beverages and furniture and household goods were largely offset by upward contributions from transport, and restaurants and hotels"

www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/september2023

Food prices are almost certain to drop further and another large base effect from Energy prices cap will come into effect in October. 'Rocket+feather' pricing of petrol/diesel sees minimal lag in impact on inflation from rises in crude oil price (but often a lag on the way down). Restaurants and hotel use is a 'luxury' item for most people.

[Mr Poppy]

Tamworth a bit far North for me but similar would apply to Mid.Beds. As with the U&SR result the implications of LAB not winning might see policy shifts and 'others' are picking up on the seat specific issues of Starmer-LAB policy to build more houses on green belt:

Tamworth by-election: First electoral test looms for Keir Starmer’s green-belt building plan
inews.co.uk/news/politics/first-electoral-test-starmer-green-belt-house-building-tamworth-by-election-2694008?

"...housing campaigners fear failure could see the party retreat from its policy"

TBC but some adjustments to that policy would be welcome IMO. Central HMG need more powers for stuff like planning approval for electricity pylons and overhead cables but CON tried the 'Yes, In Your Back Yard' (YIYBY) approach for housing and it wasn't popular at a local level. Not sure folks will think CON has changed but they are campaigning in greenbelt seats on the one (and only) thing they can: NIMBY!

[Danny]

Oct 18, 2023 6:55:31 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Restaurants and hotel use is a 'luxury' item for most people.

The index published is an average for all people. You are absolutely correct many people would not be using restaurnats and hotels at all, but since the biggest contributors to inflation were originally energy and food, then the effect of including restaurants etc. was already to reduce the index below what such people were experiencing. For those people never using restaurants, then the real inflation rate was always higher than the index made out.

[domjg]

Oct 18, 2023 6:49:52 GMT neilj said:

Oct 18, 2023 6:41:33 GMT steve said:

"So in a nutshell, Hamas is justified in organising raids into Israel to kill anyone it can find. "

Seek immediate psychiatric help.

Mark can you do something about posts like this?

Agree, truly appalling to try and justify the cold blooded murder of babies
Two wrongs most certainly do not make a right

He's just trying to shock to get a reaction but he's gone far too far this time and Mark needs to take action on this.

[crossbat11]

Oct 17, 2023 23:35:06 GMT mercian said:

Oct 17, 2023 12:18:17 GMT steve said:

Brexitanians seem a bit miffed that a far right , nationalist is likely to be replaced by an enthusiastic moderate supporter of the European union.

Almost as if they had an agenda.

youtu.be/Q8pwLu5Rdo8?si=ER3NecJcwZj4bn2t

Well this "Brexitanian" couldn't give a monkey's what they get up to in Poland.

A faraway place of which we know nothing about.

[steve]

"A faraway place of which we know nothing about."

To be fair to Mercian that would include nearly everywhere.

[steve]

I don't know whether it's wishful thinking but the latest internal activist message I received regarding mid beds is that it's neck and neck and predicted to be the closest by election for a considerable period, if accurate genuine three way race.

[crossbat11]

Oct 18, 2023 7:24:16 GMT domjg said:

Oct 18, 2023 6:49:52 GMT neilj said:

Agree, truly appalling to try and justify the cold blooded murder of babies
Two wrongs most certainly do not make a right

He's just trying to shock to get a reaction but he's gone far too far this time and Mark needs to take action on this.

Mark's moderating policy is not one I necessarily approve of but it has the merits of being explicit, I suppose. He appears relaxed about any sort of content as long as it doesn't involve a personal attack on another poster.

Accordingly, Danny's justifications of Hamas atrocities, while distasteful and offensive, and probably deliberately so, pass muster. However, if he had called me a twat, he'd have been in trouble.

If I misunderstand Mark's policy I apologise and he can/will put me right.

All I would say, however, is that if my interpretation is right, then you get the sort of Wild West forum this has slowly become.

A studiously polite exchange of evermore offensive opinions on subjects that stray a million miles away from domestic opinion polls.

[steve]

World beating
UK has highest inflation in G7 after CPI fails to fall in September

While there are of course international factors it takes a special type of muppet to impose trade sanctions on yourself.

[neilj]

More in common poll

[Mr Poppy]

Oct 17, 2023 15:25:04 GMT Mark said:

Surely what often happens, not only in politics, but, in business, in public services such as the police etc., is that those accused of wrongdoing are suspended pending an investigation.

Well there is the Starmer-LAB approach to someone like Dianne Abbott of course which IMO is 'guilty of having the wrong political views'. 

It does appear that Bone's wrong doings were more than mere 'banter' and I expect most people would agree that the Independent Complaints and Grievance Scheme (ICGS) takes too long to make their independent decisions but IMO it is a good thing to have such decisions made independently as it reduces the 'subjective' nature.

We can of course disagree on what sanctions the 'internal' moderator should take in case of alleged hate speech (eg even after Abbott quickly apologised for what was a very badly worded comment) or stuff like alleged bullying and what constitutes breaching of 'vague' rules. If Starmer-LAB applied the same approach to all LAB MPs that was used against Abbott then there would be a lot more xLAB Ind MPs (notably those with the 'right' political view within Starmer-LAB). If every MP from a political party who had allegations made against them was to lose the party whip, they'd likely a/ see a big increase in allegations* and b/ not have many MPs left!

'Subjectivity' is a problem isn't it.  

* The last but one 'big fish' in Scotland saw a bit of a 'pile-in' when he became unpopular but was he was later acquitted of all charges. His reputation is irrevocably damaged as for a lot of people "where there is smoke, there must have been fire".
www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/23/alex-salmond-acquitted-of-all-charges-in-sexual-assault-trial

[hireton]

It seems the Ahli Hospital was hit by an Israeli missile a few days ago:

[crossbat11]

Oct 18, 2023 8:03:47 GMT neilj said:

More in common poll

It might be interesting to see if the Israeli-Hamas conflict has some short term effect on public opinion in this country. Foreign affairs can and do impact on domestic politics, quite often giving the incumbents a slight boost. An opportunity for statesmanlike behaviour by The Prime Minister and a slight herding around the government position as clouds darken and global security feels under threat.

And this particular crisis has dangers for Labour too, more than any other of our parties. The strong pro-Palestinian stance among many of its politicians, members and voters and the leadership's fairly unqualified support of the Israeli government has already exposed splits that may become wider.

It will be interesting to keep an eye on the polls, especially as events unfold in Gaza over the next few weeks and a likely ground offensive by Israel approaches.

[Mr Poppy]

Oct 17, 2023 11:32:29 GMT Mark said:

*** ADMIN ***

I will be starting a new main polling thread tomorrow, likely late afternoon or evening.

This is on the eve of the two, upcoming by-elections, in order that posts concerning the aforementioned are close to the top of the thread.

I'm hoping that there will be a new poll published between now and then, but, if not, will use the most recent poll (Deltapoll, published yesterday).
...

Your hopes have been delivered upon. A 12pt LAB lead is the narrowest for a while but then the 'format' for how the title used to start a new thread surely shouldn't be that relevant. It would seem very petty if anyone refused to post on a new thread simply because they didn't like the one poll used to give the new thread a title. However, the Deltapoll poll showing one of the highest LAB leads for a while might be better received by those of a petty nature 

[pjw1961]

Oct 18, 2023 0:11:54 GMT mercian said:

pjw1961
re your magnum opus on political betting. It's wasted here. Get it published. You could make a bit of money.

I think not, just my take and for the fun of learning something - in this case the realisation that what we are actually talking here about one of the dominant ideologies of our time - the alleged efficiency of markets, which has led to the attempt to 'marketise' all sorts of things that I don't think work - i.e. we are back to politics! 

It is actually a pity that Trevor can't be part of the discussion, because what he has posted about betting is very good stuff - intelligent and well put. I would have a small wager (pun intended) that he is a market believer, i.e. that markets are the most efficient way of pricing things and also that an informed observer can (in a marginal way) beat the market of less informed participants. Hence his commentary on the bets he has put on Mid Beds, when and why. 

I lived through the Lansley NHS 'reforms' and the attempt to create an internal market within the NHS, which failed disastrously. One reason was it was never in any sense a real market, just given the form but not the substance of one. To my mind there are things that readily lend themselves to marketisation as they possess the required characteristics and others that don't. In this case I am unconvinced that political betting has the 'informed participants' that market theory expects to enable it to outperform polling. There is a line in the paper I haven't quoted in full yet: 

"Fundamentally, the model of information transmission for opinion polls is centralised with the polling company, whereas for prediction markets it is decentralised amongst market participants. Thus, we might assert that prediction markets ought to provide better forecasts than opinion polls by appealing to the so-called Hayek hypothesis, which suggests that markets can work efficiently even when the participants' knowledge of the environment or other participants is limited"

This is of course the classic argument of believers in markets against the alternative of a planned economy, and given which side of the political fence I am on, I'm never going to buy that! 

[pjw1961]

Oct 18, 2023 8:18:13 GMT crossbat11 said:

Oct 18, 2023 8:03:47 GMT neilj said:

More in common poll

It might be interesting to see if the Israeli-Hamas conflict has some short term effect on public opinion in this country. Foreign affairs can and do impact on domestic politics, quite often giving the incumbents a slight boost. An opportunity for statesmanlike behaviour by The Prime Minister and a slight herding around the government position as clouds darken and global security feels under threat.

And this particular crisis has dangers for Labour too, more than any other of our parties. The strong pro-Palestinian stance among many of its politicians, members and voters and the leadership's fairly unqualified support of the Israeli government has already exposed splits that may become wider.

It will be interesting to keep an eye on the polls, especially as events unfold in Gaza over the next few weeks and a likely ground offensive by Israel approaches.

We have to be honest and admit that it is a big problem for Labour. Starmer's rather rash comments at the beginning of the matter and the continuing lack of balance is alienating Muslim voters. They are a group that have historically supported Labour in large numbers, whereas in 2015 (pre-Corbyn and when Labour had a Jewish leader) the much smaller number of Jewish voters were already 70%+ Conservative in line with their social characteristics. A more nuanced approach would have been better, condemning Hamas but not giving Israel a blank cheque. 

www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/17/labour-leadership-meets-councillors-after-resignations-over-middle-east-crisis

[wb61]

Oct 18, 2023 8:23:59 GMT pjw1961 said:

Oct 18, 2023 0:11:54 GMT mercian said:

To my mind there are things that readily lend themselves to marketisation as they possess the required characteristics and others that don't. ---
This is of course the classic argument of believers in markets against the alternative of a planned economy, and given which side of the political fence I am on, I'm never going to buy that! 

Peter Donaldson ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Donaldson_(economist) ), who was my first economics tutor in the very first lecture talked about the importance of the mixed economy and how he was happy to see the market take care of toothpaste but not dentistry as the first was perfect for a market system where as the latter would just lead to a general reduction in the health of the nation. 

[crossbat11]

Oct 18, 2023 8:40:18 GMT wb61 said:

Oct 18, 2023 8:23:59 GMT pjw1961 said:

To my mind there are things that readily lend themselves to marketisation as they possess the required characteristics and others that don't. ---
This is of course the classic argument of believers in markets against the alternative of a planned economy, and given which side of the political fence I am on, I'm never going to buy that! 

Peter Donaldson ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Donaldson_(economist) ), who was my first economics tutor in the very first lecture talked about the importance of the mixed economy and how he was happy to see the market take care of toothpaste but not dentistry as the first was perfect for a market system where as the latter would just lead to a general reduction in the health of the nation. 

From my very distant memories of studying Marx and reading Das Kapital over fifty years ago, I remember being more impressed with his critique of capitalism than I was with his prescription for its replacement!

His critique contained, in my view, two essential truisms that have duly come to pass. Capitalism has indeed concentrated wealth in fewer and fewer hands and markets have quite clearly intruded into ever more aspects of all our lives. The commodification of nearly everything continues apace.

The interesting political question for me in all this is whether this seemingly remorseless process is an inevitable consequence of an economic theory and system that has now become a yoke or burden upon us or it is, in an imperfect world, how human nature will always play out and how the majority of people want to live.

Replace it or benignly manage it? That is the question.