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Post by somerjohn on Oct 16, 2023 8:41:58 GMT
I keep an eye on the covid debates here without commenting, because I'm not qualified to do so. But I think I must have been influenced, by Alec's strenuous efforts, in the direction of thinking covid remains a serious potential threat. So the following entirely dismissive BBC article came as a surprise. Is it really as simple as that covid has fizzled out to the extent that it's just another form of cold? Or is the BBC spreading government-inspired complacency? www.bbc.com/news/health-66994137 |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Oct 16, 2023 8:47:56 GMT
Johntel But wouldn't what's being talked about in that paper you cite just be describing how betting markets and odds track opinion polls, not the ability of betting markets to forecast election outcomes in the absence of psephological data? In other words, aren't you putting the horse in front of the cart? Markets reflect the weather, they don't create it. It's really this from pj that I'm taking issue with - "I am somewhat amazed that on a site dedicated to opinion polling on the basis of stratified sampling quite so many people seem to take gambling odds seriously". The paper I quoted concludes that betting markets are more accurate than opinion polls. I'd start a separate thread but I don't think anyone except Trevor would be interested  The question you would need to answer if that were true is what mystical power betting markets draw on to achieve that result. Like crossbat11 I suspect that most movements in political betting are based on polling anyway - there is very little else of any worth to go on. When the polling is wrong the betting will be wrong as well (which I intend to try to prove). |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 16, 2023 8:52:35 GMT
... He says that KS's " betray(al) the left-wing pledges on which he ran " is "Learning on the job " ... +1 for Link to his piece from: Impossible to say if he always intend to lie or has just been... "pragmatic" but IMO and the opinion of the Far-Left on twitterverse then Starmer knew what he was doing when he called Corbyn a 'friend' and then treated him like a 'fiend' Polling suggest the vast majority of LAB'19 who voted for Corbyn will now vote for Starmer and as most pundits would agree then the ABCON aspect of that is ongoing, possibly even more relevant. However, Starmer has moved LAB so far to the Right (economically) that he's almost indistinguishable from CON into 2019 (other the fact Brexit is now done). IIRC a previous article from Times has suggested LAB'24 is "CONtinuity Boris" on policy*, but whisper that quietly around folks who think they are 'genuine LoC'  * Even the 300k houses per year policy is 'copyCON', although might hit pre-emptive 'pragmatism' after Mid.Beds in the unlikely event CON keep that seat. Hopefully the 'pragmatism' will be that we need more homes but we need the 'right homes in the right places'; not 2bed+ houses built on greenbelt that create new soulless communities with people reliant on cars. CON tried that, it was a stupid idea then and is a stupid idea now. |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Oct 16, 2023 8:55:07 GMT
I keep an eye on the covid debates here without commenting, because I'm not qualified to do so. But I think I must have been influenced, by Alec's strenuous efforts, in the direction of thinking covid remains a serious potential threat. So the following entirely dismissive BBC article came as a surprise. Is it really as simple as that covid has fizzled out to the extent that it's just another form of cold? Or is the BBC spreading government-inspired complacency? www.bbc.com/news/health-66994137The short answer is that Covid has some differences compared with colds, which we have been through in the past, though some of it on the side thread, but also it’s possible that even colds might be worse for us than some might think. alec may elaborate on this. There is another issue that these infections can worsen the effects of each other: so Covid can worsen RSV, RSV can worsen Flu etc. And they talk about deaths in article, but there is also the impact of long Covid, and how Covid may impact other deaths due to cardiovascular ailments etc. There is also the economic impact of Covid even when people aren’t dying of it, alongside disruption to things like education and indeed healthcare. And the problem of going into hospital for a routine check up then dying due to contracting Covid while there, which doesn’t tend to happen with non-infectious diseases so much. To give a quick summary… |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 16, 2023 8:59:30 GMT
Indeed. Unprecedented times and the flip from Tory to Labour since Johnson / Truss quite amazing. The Tories in marginal seats must be regretting not sitting out the Covid Party storm with BJ I'd say. Still don't understand why BJ didn't do a John Major "put up or shut up" Leadership election to see the men in grey suits off! Anyway, an own goal of their own making to end with Sunak! An Owen* goal of Boris's own making but 'events' since CON 'Got Boris Gone' probably didn't pan out as most CON MPs expected - stating with the Truss 'error' 🤦♂️ Rishi certainly seems like he was better suited to CoE than PM. After GE'24 then he'll still be suited but quite likely also get booted. Then "In Starmer we trust" (always nice to have both horses in the race, if Plan A goes lame and Plan B is CONtinuity CON) TBC of course but I reckon Kemi will keep Starmer on the 'Right' path * Started with the attempt to protect Owen Patterson, hence 'Owen' goal was the starting point Boris digging his own ditch. |
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Post by johntel on Oct 16, 2023 9:08:28 GMT
It's really this from pj that I'm taking issue with - "I am somewhat amazed that on a site dedicated to opinion polling on the basis of stratified sampling quite so many people seem to take gambling odds seriously". The paper I quoted concludes that betting markets are more accurate than opinion polls. I'd start a separate thread but I don't think anyone except Trevor would be interested The question you would need to answer if that were true is what mystical power betting markets draw on to achieve that result. Like crossbat11 I suspect that most movements in political betting are based on polling anyway - there is very little else of any worth to go on. When the polling is wrong the betting will be wrong as well (which I intend to try to prove). Sure, betting markets draw mainly on polling - but they also draw on insider knowledge, expert knowledge, known opinion poll bias and so on, which make them more accurate. Don't forget that the odds are just probabilities, not predictions, so they will often be wrong in individual cases - but in the long run more accurate than just the polls alone. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2023 9:10:14 GMT
Indeed. Unprecedented times and the flip from Tory to Labour since Johnson / Truss quite amazing. The Tories in marginal seats must be regretting not sitting out the Covid Party storm with BJ I'd say. Still don't understand why BJ didn't do a John Major "put up or shut up" Leadership election to see the men in grey suits off! Anyway, an own goal of their own making to end with Sunak! Johnson wouldn't have saved them. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2023 9:14:31 GMT
IIRC a previous article from Times has suggested LAB'24 is "CONtinuity Boris" on policy*, but whisper that quietly around folks who think they are 'genuine LoC' I think Starmer is right of Johnson on the economic front. Boris would have fallen out Big Time with Reeves as much as Sunak/Hunt on spending constraints. |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 16, 2023 9:37:11 GMT
IIRC a previous article from Times has suggested LAB'24 is "CONtinuity Boris" on policy*, but whisper that quietly around folks who think they are 'genuine LoC' I think Starmer is right of Johnson on the economic front. Boris would have fallen out Big Time with Reeves as much as Sunak/Hunt on spending constraints. I'd consider myself 'Left of Starmer' (on the economic axis) and, under Boris, "Red Rishi" was called a 'socialist' by some  Boris did oversee the hike in corporation tax to within 1% of what Corbyn wanted to do but got himself into 'personal' issues that were his undoing. IIRC then some very smart people liked the idea of Boris as Chairman and Rishi as CEO back in 2019 - but we didn't have a crystal ball to foresee Covid/Ukraine and Boris going off the rails (OK the last one was quite likely but if he'd just done the schmoozing and high level vague stuff, leaving Rishi+co to rein stuff back a bit but not be distracted with the press stuff then who knows how it might have turned out) Perhaps we can say Starmer and Reeves are good examples of how most people shift to the Right as they mature? |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Oct 16, 2023 9:46:39 GMT
IIRC a previous article from Times has suggested LAB'24 is "CONtinuity Boris" on policy*, but whisper that quietly around folks who think they are 'genuine LoC' I think Starmer is right of Johnson on the economic front. Boris would have fallen out Big Time with Reeves as much as Sunak/Hunt on spending constraints. Back when Sunak resigned, read reports that Bojo’s camp were saying that at least now they could open the taps more regarding the economy*, as Sunak had been holding them back? In the Telegraph I think it was said recently that Sunak had objected to paying more for sick leave during Covid etc. I do think it’s possible Boris wanted to splash more cash for the levelling up thing, (he was quite happy to splash some when Mayor?) Though how effectively he would have done so is of course something else. * (though obviously Johnson didn’t stay in office long enough after Sunak resigned to do that) |
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Post by alec on Oct 16, 2023 9:47:55 GMT
somerjohn - "So the following entirely dismissive BBC article came as a surprise. Is it really as simple as that covid has fizzled out to the extent that it's just another form of cold? Or is the BBC spreading government-inspired complacency?" The article is the subject of hundreds, possibly thousands of complaints, including from many doctors. It's ludicrous. The author, Nick Triggle, has a long record of downplaying the threat from covid, which may or may not be related to his personal political connections. I think he is the brother in law to a Tory MP, although there are different versions of his Conservative relations online. The dataset quoted (10,000 covid deaths and 14,000 covid deaths last winter) is an experimental data set (the flu element) which isn't made clear in the article, instead the flu deaths reported as fact, despite the ONS stating they should not be used in such a way. But the most laughably idiotic part of the article is that it quotes the winter covid deaths as evidence of emerging seasonality, without even mentioned that Covid officially killed 38,000 across the whole of last year. How the f@ck can something be a 'normal winter seasonal virus' when three times more deaths occur outwith winter It's killing 300 a week in September. The other aspects he ignored were the growing scientific consensus that Covid has an impact on the immune system that is unique among the 'normal' respiratory viruses, with growing evidence that last year's flu presented with a higher rate of severe cases and deaths which is now being correlated with prior covid. So comparing flu deaths to covid would be invalid, if some of those flu deaths were because covid had weakened people's response. There was also no mention of declining immunity as the variant landscape grows ever more complex. This is known to have resulted in a shortening of the period between infections. With the original strain, immunity lasted at least 12 months in most cases, and has progressively shortened with each new major variant, with several confirmed cases now of reinfection at the current time of 5 - 8 weeks. It's well worth running a google scholar search on Arijit Chakravarty, as his team has published multiple papers since early 2020 predicting the likely course of the pandemic, and so far he has been (I think) the only academic source to have got all his predictions virtually totally correct. But Triggle never interviews those experts with a track record of accuracy, preferring instead to quote someone who has now said three years on the trot that Covid is becoming seasonal. FWIW, had Triggle talked to Arijit Chakravarty, he would have told him that his research is showing that the way we are managing covid, with no restrictions and active encouragement to get infected, allied to the very rapid mutation rate of the virus and almost limitless genetic space for variation, is already leading us to his predicted outcome of the development of multiple distinct serotypes. This is what some viruses do (think dengue fever) and it's bad. It means that although the same virus, the serotypes are sufficiently distinct for the immune system to treat them as completely different, so you get no protection from infection by one against the other. Worse, as with dengue, getting infected with one serotype can give you 'negative' immunity, where you have a worse reaction if infected by another serotype. Such a scenario makes vaccination campaigns very difficult, as vaccines can actually generate more harm, depending on the serotype. So we're in the shit, but so long as the BBC ignores the scientists that have been proven right so far and instead consistently platforms those who have been constantly over optimistic, we'll get articles like this. This chart gives a much more honest view of the alleged seasonality of covid vs flu, a true seasonal virus - /photo/2 and if you want to read a balanced view of where we actually are, this thread from Prof Stephen Griffin is honest, truthful and balanced, -
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2023 10:11:52 GMT
There can be no justification for the murder of children and babies, absolutely disgusting, scum of the earth www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67119183"A man has been charged with murder and hate crimes after allegedly stabbing two people because they were Muslim. Joseph Czuba, 71, is accused of killing a six-year-old boy and injuring a woman, 32, in Plainfield, Illinois... Both victims were taken to hospital, but the boy later died. It was later established that the child was stabbed 26: Awful. I have been thinking about biblical doctrines on retaliation-so much of this is steeped in religion. I suppose the Canadian attacker is following The Old Testament , rather than the New ? I thought I had heard the worst about the 7th October killings, but Sky yesterday had an interview with the teams collecting the bodies in Israel. The barbarity and depravity of the torture and murder of the infants & babies is beyond comprehension. At the Supernova Concert a paramedic trying to help the fallen was murdered-he was a Muslim. ?? When you hear this stuff, Eye for an Eye stirs uncomfortably in the mind. You try to discount it by thinking of Gaza just now. And you soon start treading the impossible quicksand of Equivalence , which itself can lead to very dark places. You try to concentrate on intent. Is collateral mortality less heinous than intended murder ? So many accounts of the Hamas credo , and interviews with them, indicate that they reject the identity of "civilian" for those they killed. They are settlers on stolen land. The young people at Supernova , soldiers in waiting. Is this the rationale for their otherwise unfathomable acts of violence and barbarity? The Israeli response is bound to cause civilian deaths when Hamas operates from their midst. Is this more , or less unacceptable than the Supernova/Kibbutz killings ? If the kibuttzim are not civilians how can Gazans be civilians.? Whilst we wrestle with such thoughts the death toll mounts and I still puzzle over Matthew 5:38-39 and wonder how it changes anything whilst others follow Leviticus . |
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 16, 2023 10:16:11 GMT
pjw1961 It appears that it isn't just the soul of football battling with the betting industry, but authentic psephology too. Betfair and Paddy Power our latter-day Butlers and Curtices! 🤔😫 I've got a feeling you must have bumped your head going into one of your long tunnels if you think England are going to win the world cup Batty  My sporting soothsaying is flawless, Johnny boy, as is my betting record I've just wagered a tenner on Villa doing the double over Forest this season. Odds disappointing though. I couldn't get a bookie to give be better than 1:10 on. Some wouldn't even take the bet. I suspect they have some inside knowledge. The Premier League table perhaps? 🤔🤣🏆 |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 16, 2023 10:16:19 GMT
Labour would appear to be the clear challenger here, but still a big majority to overturn
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2023 10:18:57 GMT
A-some very smart people liked the idea of Boris as Chairman and Rishi as CEO back in 2019 - B-Perhaps we can say Starmer and Reeves are good examples of how most people shift to the Right as they mature? A-including me ! . Not so smart though-was it ? B- We could-but it would be more correct to say they are examples of shifting to the right to get elected. Actually I don't feel inclined to poke fun at them for wanting to get elected-or for doing so by moving away from a credo that neither you nor I would have relished in Government. What we should be doing is asking how Sunak can get elected.....or if we really think it sensible for his party to do so. |
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Post by alec on Oct 16, 2023 10:29:19 GMT
somerjohn - I'd also add that I've seen several experts caution against reading too much into temporary lulls in covid transmission on the basis that the pandemic is still relatively young and not much time has elapsed since the first infection. Few commentators seem to appreciate that the Spanish 'Flu pandemic was very unusual in that it only lasted 3 - 4 years. This was abnormally for most known human pandemics, which typically lasted for 10 years to decades. It takes time for a new virus to settle into whatever pattern of endemicity it and it's environment is suited to, and we're nowhere near knowing what that pattern will be with covid.
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 16, 2023 10:31:45 GMT
Labour would appear to be the clear challenger here, but still a big majority to overturn Bone by name Bone my nature. The Gammon's Gammon bites the dust. Farage to run in Wellingborough by election or is he to the left of Starmer on economic affairs now and will instead endorse Dave Nellist? It's all very confusing for voters now. Go left with Rishi and Suella, maybe? Johnson and his missus Carrie to join Labour too? Reeves looks too Reform UK for Carrie though. Maybe a jump too far to the Right. What are voters to think or do? The world is shifting on its axis in almost biblical terms. 😫😂🍻 |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 16, 2023 10:38:54 GMT
The Bone of contention
Tory MP Peter Bone should be suspended from Commons for 6 weeks for bullying and sexual misconduct, report says
The Conservative MP Peter Bone should be suspended from the Commons for six weeks for bullying and sexual misconduct, the Commons independent expert panel has recommended.
In a report the IEP, which deals with bullying and sexual misconduct complaints against MPs, says the complainant first complained about Bone to the Conservative party in 2017. After that inquiry failed to reach a conclusion, that took the complaint to the parliamentary watchdog.
The IEP says:
Following an investigation by an independent investigator appointed by the ICGS [independent complaints and grievance scheme], the parliamentary commissioner for standards upheld five allegations of bullying and one of sexual misconduct. Mr Bone appealed this decision to the IEP. That appeal was dismissed by the IEP sub-panel appointed to consider that case as having raised no substantive grounds.
The sub-panel then determined that Mr Bone should be suspended for six weeks. It stated that: “This is a serious case of misconduct. […] The bullying involved violence, shouting and swearing, mocking, belittling and humiliating behaviour, and ostracism. […] This wilful pattern of bullying also included an unwanted incident of sexual misconduct, when the complainant was trapped in a room with the respondent in a hotel in Madrid, […]. This was a deliberate and conscious abuse of power using a sexual mechanism: indecent exposure.”
Mr Bone appealed the sanction to a fresh IEP sub-panel. They dismissed his appeal, and confirmed the original decision.
If the Commons votes to confirm the suspension, Bone could be subject to a recall election in his Wellingborough constituency, where he had a majority of 18,540 at the last election.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2023 10:40:09 GMT
Labour would appear to be the clear challenger here, but still a big majority to overturn This has come a bit out of the blue, to me, anyway. I hadn't even realised there was an investigation going on. Wellingborough was marginally LAB 1997-2005. A bit more info from the BBC. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67122669 |
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Post by somerjohn on Oct 16, 2023 10:40:12 GMT
Colin: "I suppose the Canadian attacker is following The Old Testament , rather than the New ?"
Canadian?
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 16, 2023 10:44:52 GMT
A-some very smart people liked the idea of Boris as Chairman and Rishi as CEO back in 2019 - B-Perhaps we can say Starmer and Reeves are good examples of how most people shift to the Right as they mature? A-including me ! . Not so smart though-was it ? B- We could-but it would be more correct to say they are examples of shifting to the right to get elected. Actually I don't feel inclined to poke fun at them for wanting to get elected-or for doing so by moving away from a credo that neither you nor I would have relished in Government. C - What we should be doing is asking how Sunak can get elected.....or if we really think it sensible for his party to do so. A - 13,966,454 of us and given the alternative then do you regret your decision, even 'in hindsight'? Boris-CON v Corbyn-LAB (and Starmer's 'de over' ref) then even in hindsight I'd still pick Boris-CON B - valid point. To get elected as leader of LAB then Starmer needed to be one thing (summarise as: Corbyn's friend) but to be elected by gen.pub in a GE then he needs to be a very different person, with very different policies. C - Deliver on his 5 priorities would be a good start. I've expanded on what else he could and should do in the past* but he is held back a bit by the bunch of anchors within CON MP factions. * EG Housing. The right homes in the right places (not greenbelt) Investment: Fiscal rules and BoE mandate tweaks Although I'm not that bothered who does what needs to be done and I'm realistic in what is possible. I can't see CON fixing the NHS in the way it needs to be fixed - maybe Streeting will do that? For immigration then Rishi-CON have a year to sort that and I doubt they can kick the ECHR decision past GE'24. All covered previously and no need for a Groundhog Day |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Oct 16, 2023 10:46:15 GMT
There can be no justification for the murder of children and babies, absolutely disgusting, scum of the earth www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67119183"A man has been charged with murder and hate crimes after allegedly stabbing two people because they were Muslim. Joseph Czuba, 71, is accused of killing a six-year-old boy and injuring a woman, 32, in Plainfield, Illinois... Both victims were taken to hospital, but the boy later died. It was later established that the child was stabbed 26: Awful. I have been thinking about biblical doctrines on retaliation-so much of this is steeped in religion. I suppose the Canadian attacker is following The Old Testament , rather than the New ? I thought I had heard the worst about the 7th October killings, but Sky yesterday had an interview with the teams collecting the bodies in Israel. The barbarity and depravity of the torture and murder of the infants & babies is beyond comprehension. At the Supernova Concert a paramedic trying to help the fallen was murdered-he was a Muslim. ?? When you hear this stuff, Eye for an Eye stirs uncomfortably in the mind. You try to discount it by thinking of Gaza just now. And you soon start treading the impossible quicksand of Equivalence , which itself can lead to very dark places. You try to concentrate on intent. Is collateral mortality less heinous than intended murder ? So many accounts of the Hamas credo , and interviews with them, indicate that they reject the identity of "civilian" for those they killed. They are settlers on stolen land. The young people at Supernova , soldiers in waiting. Is this the rationale for their otherwise unfathomable acts of violence and barbarity? The Israeli response is bound to cause civilian deaths when Hamas operates from their midst. Is this more , or less unacceptable than the Supernova/Kibbutz killings ? If the kibuttzim are not civilians how can Gazans be civilians.? Whilst we wrestle with such thoughts the death toll mounts and I still puzzle over Matthew 5:38-39 and wonder how it changes anything whilst others follow Leviticus . The trouble is that if Israel did nothing, or rather did what was regarded by Hamas and their masters as very little, then they'd consider it an invitation to continue with similar actions in the future. Turning the other cheek when your adversary has butchered thousands is not something that any state can do, unless it is very, very weak in comparison to its enemy and in such a situation it's likely to have been overrun anyway. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 16, 2023 10:50:13 GMT
Is there a VIP Lane for Tory regime chums for the supply of non-functional GPS ankle tags?
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Post by graham on Oct 16, 2023 10:51:08 GMT
Labour would appear to be the clear challenger here, but still a big majority to overturn This has come a bit out of the blue, to me, anyway. I hadn't even realised there was an investigation going on. Wellingborough was marginally LAB 1997-2005. A bit more info from the BBC. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67122669Wellingborough was Labour-held 1997 - 2005 and 1964 - 1969. Also prior to 1959. |
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Post by neilj on Oct 16, 2023 10:52:43 GMT
Interesting to look at the prediction thread, not sure any will get the by-election prediction right 😀 Predict what you think on each of the following and let's see who the sages are at the end of the year. Post your predictions on here by the end of Mon Jan 16th to take part, and if something relevant changes between your post and the deadline feel free to edit your post accordingly. A point for each, with +/- 5% on the numerical questions for the full point, +/- 10% for half a point. So, on 31st December 2023; 1. Who will be the Prime Minister of the UK? 2. Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster? 3. Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister of Scotland? 4. Who (if anyone!) will be the First Minister of Northern Ireland? 5. Will Mark Drakeford be First Minister of Wales? 6. Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel? 7. Will Olaf Scholz be Chancellor of Germany? 8. Will Xi Jinping be the President of China? 9. Will Vladimir Putin be the President of Russia? 10. Will Nigel Farage be the leader of an officially registered political party? 11. How many US dollars will £1 buy you? 12. And how many euros? 13. What will the UK inflation rate be? (latest CPI figure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) 14. What will the UK unemployment rate be in percentage terms? (latest official measure to be published by 31st Dec 2023) 15. What will the Bank of England Base Rate be? (interest rate in force on 31st Dec 2023) 16. Will a date have been set for a referendum on Scottish Independence? 17. Will Joe Biden and/or Donald Trump be formally declared candidates** for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (1/2 point for each) 18. Which party will be leading in GB opinion polls, and by what margin from the second-placed party? (average of YouGov polls with fieldwork wholly or partially in December 2023 and published by 31st December) 19. The Conservatives currently have majority control of 86*** of the 230 English councils that will be having scheduled elections on 4th May (either whole council or by thirds). How many of these 230 will they hold majority control in immediately after the elections? 20. How many Westminster by-elections will have been lost by the party that was defending the seat? (counts any where the Returning Officer declares the result during 2023; by-elections where the sitting member was Independent will be counted a Hold or a Loss based on the party/affiliation that member was elected under at the most recent election). ** a candidate who has formally declared but whose campaign is officially Suspended as at 31st December does not count as a formal candidate for this question *** using en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections - I appreciate that between now and the elections taking place then defections, vacancies, by-elections etc could change the starting number from 86 councils, hence asking how many of these 230 they will hold after the elections, rather than how many will be lost/gained on the night |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2023 10:52:53 GMT
Colin: "I suppose the Canadian attacker is following The Old Testament , rather than the New ?"Canadian? American. Thank you. |
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Post by neilj on Oct 16, 2023 11:00:17 GMT
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Post by graham on Oct 16, 2023 11:03:41 GMT
The Wellingborough news might well have significance for timing of GE.By the time all procedures are exhausted - including appeals - we are unlikely to see a by election before March next year. Would Sunak really want that? A May GE would avoid that.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2023 11:05:17 GMT
This has come a bit out of the blue, to me, anyway. I hadn't even realised there was an investigation going on. Wellingborough was marginally LAB 1997-2005. A bit more info from the BBC. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67122669Wellingborough was Labour-held 1997 - 2005 and 1964 - 1969. Also prior to 1959. Indeed. The Blair years comparison at least has the merit of being possibly more relevant to present day demographics, though. |
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Post by lefthanging on Oct 16, 2023 11:06:45 GMT
There can be no justification for the murder of children and babies, absolutely disgusting, scum of the earth www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67119183"A man has been charged with murder and hate crimes after allegedly stabbing two people because they were Muslim. Joseph Czuba, 71, is accused of killing a six-year-old boy and injuring a woman, 32, in Plainfield, Illinois... Both victims were taken to hospital, but the boy later died. It was later established that the child was stabbed 26: Awful. I have been thinking about biblical doctrines on retaliation-so much of this is steeped in religion. I suppose the Canadian attacker is following The Old Testament , rather than the New ? I thought I had heard the worst about the 7th October killings, but Sky yesterday had an interview with the teams collecting the bodies in Israel. The barbarity and depravity of the torture and murder of the infants & babies is beyond comprehension. At the Supernova Concert a paramedic trying to help the fallen was murdered-he was a Muslim. ?? When you hear this stuff, Eye for an Eye stirs uncomfortably in the mind. You try to discount it by thinking of Gaza just now. And you soon start treading the impossible quicksand of Equivalence , which itself can lead to very dark places. Whilst we wrestle with such thoughts the death toll mounts and I still puzzle over Matthew 5:38-39 and wonder how it changes anything whilst others follow Leviticus . It's worth remembering that most scholars (secular and religious) hold that the lex talonis was originally intended to limit violence - preventing one-off crimes descending into generational feuds by limiting punishment to no more than the original wrong inflicted - and it is in this context that we can read Matthew 5 as an extension of the Torah's teachings rather than simple opposition. Marcion - in arguably one of the earliest forms of Christian anti-semitism - threw out the Old Testament because (understandably) he couldn't see past this literal interpretation and imagined that the Torah amounted to a positive endorsement of violence. Fortunately the early Christian community recognised this error and were able to live in peace while still revering the Torah. Too bad so many of today's religious fossils didn't get the memo. The grotesque and hideous sins that are justified in the name of religion (other ideologies are available) never fail to horrify - and as a relatively new father (my little baby is not yet a year old) I particularly cannot bear to think about what might have happened to those poor children and babies. Memory eternal. People say prayer doesn't accomplish anything - but if Hamas spent more time praying and less time killing the world would be a much better place. |
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